NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - NFL Week 18 Picks with Cynthia Frelund | Capitalizing on Teams Resting Starters

Episode Date: January 2, 2026

Gregg Rosenthal and Cynthia Frelund put their heads together for the final picks show of the 2025 NFL regular season. In Week 18, the duo searches for advantageous matchups given the fact several playoff teams will be resting starters in the regular season finale. Matchups discussed: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams Final Regular Season Picks + Other Options to ConsiderNFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. What's up? It's Cam Jordan. I'm back with season three of your favorite podcast, The Off the Edge with Cam Jordan podcast. It's happening every Wednesday to hear conversations with my friends and stars for the NFL, the sports world in general, and entertainment. About anything from teams and players making waves to pop culture.

And I'll take you inside my journey through my 15th season in the NFL. Looking forward to you joining me this season, the season of more on The Off The Off The Edge with Cam Join podcast. Catch new episode. every Wednesday on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Wasabi Hot Cloud Storage. Store more and do more with your data. Try them for free at wasabi.com. Welcome to NFL Daily, where all good things must come to an end. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesleying podcast video. And I'm not referring to 2025. Happy New Year, by the way, to everyone listening. I'm not talking even about.

this pick show because we're going straight through the playoffs. I'm talking about what was the greatest streak in sports. I have 12 straight winning weeks on this show, picking only three games a week against the spread. And it all came crashing down at the hands of Kirk Cousins and Bajon Robinson and that Falcons team. So I went one and two. I'm still very happy 32 and 19 on the season. And most importantly, Cynthia is coming off an undefeated week. There we go. You're going to be Going into the playoffs, welcome, Cynthia Freeland. Thanks. You ready for a final week?

This is a tricky trickster week. I think it's a week of opportunity. I'm glad the NFL does not let us actually pick these games and put our money behind it. But I do think it's a week where you kind of can understand the motivations of different team and take advantage of some crazy lines. It's a very difficult week for Vegas to set these lines, wouldn't you agree? I mean, yeah, but those buildings are much bigger than anything, and more beautiful than anything we have.

Well, this building is beautiful, but we don't own it. So, you know, yeah, no, I just think it's a wonky week because even if someone's playing, does that mean they're playing the full game? Does it mean they're playing for the first quarter? Right. I mean, once they see certain things that they're not, I don't know. So you just have to be mindful of what you're doing. Don't be a D-Jent.

So I think at the end, I might even run through where we're at now, like, where I think if people are curious, who's resting, who's not. But why don't we go through our three picks each? Because we'll naturally hit upon some of these situations. Now, last week, if I was a spiteful man, I could remember that remember I was deciding between two games and you took the Patriots away from me. And then they were up 21 nothing in about seven minutes.

And I was thinking, oh, that would have been an easy minute. And then I got my L. So I'm giving you the first pick here, Cynthia, despite that small little problem that I had with you last week. You could have taken it. I could have. I regret it. No one's saying that you're not allowed.

We can double up. We can double up. Right. I did not say you couldn't take it. No, I'm blaming. I'm hitting out and I'm not taking responsibility. That's a bad job by me. Okay.

You go first. All right. Great. I want to look at, I think, that the Denver and the Chargers. I think Denver, it's a lofty number at 12 and a half. But the Broncos. goes, they want to secure the one. I'm looking for people who have something to play for.

And Denver has, the thing to play for is the fact that they get the one seat if they win. Period. Full stop. Yep. I mean, they also get it if like two other teams lose. Like if the Patriots. But like, let's not rely on that, especially now that we know that the Chargers, they are not playing their starters. It's going to be Trey Lance.

No shade on Trey Lance. But I believe that this is a Denver defense and a Denver offense that's going to be looking ahead and saying, all right, we need to get on track, really show, like, get good reps because conceivably next week would be their rest. So I don't think it's two weeks of rest for these guys. You know, the rust starts to come in there. I think it could be a three-hour celebration. I'm totally with you. I like a lot of games this week. So I might throw an extra one in at the end, but I think learning my lesson from last week, I'm just going to go with you on Denver and Chargers, too, because that is definitely one of my top two.

I have two I really like. Yeah, same. I don't have that. Neither I really like. It's similar in terms of motivation. And we had a situation last season that was almost identical to this. Now, Denver needed to win in week 18 to get into the playoffs. But do you remember who they faced off again in week 18?

It was the Kansas City Chiefs. Yeah. Who were resting. Yeah. The final score was 38 to nothing. And I just think Sean Payton coming off of a couple wonky weeks to use a word. that you used on this week's game debut. Everyone check us out on NFL Network's going to be playing all week.

Friday night, Saturday morning. Yes. You can also find that on YouTube. They just call it Game Picks. You can also find Cynthia Freeland on YouTube. I always say go subscribe to her channel and check out Numbers game. I just think this is a team in Denver that is going to swarm. This was going to be a difficult matchup for the Chargers anyways because of their offensive line.

and the Broncos are looking for that team sack record. They're wanting to pad their numbers. There's incentives. I think teams just love a situation like this. And I think it could be incredibly one-way traffic where it's like 24 to nothing at half time or something like that. All right. So we agree on Denver.

We have the same first pick eat. We haven't done that a lot this season. But in this weird week, I don't want to get too cute. What is your second pick? I'll let you go first because I can't remember. I mean, I remember who you have. have winning. I know where we're different, but I can't remember which one you kind of like the most.

Okay, the other one that I like the most, as we're taping this, we're not confirmed, but logically, again, I think the Viking Packers are a situation that people who are into this sort of thing can take advantage of. We have it at six and a half right now for the Vikings. They are favored by that much because the line is assuming that the Packers are not going to play their starters. Matt LaFleur has said it without saying it. I believe what he said was he's not going to tell.

Yes. He's keeping it close to the vest. But early in the week... That means not playing. Yes. They're locked into the seven seed. They can't do anything but harm their chances by getting someone hurt. And they have a lot of banged up important players.

Josh Jacobs, Jordan, Love, certainly some of the key defenders on defense. You can only sit so many. I get all that. The big thing for me is we might not know until game time who's starting at quarterback. But I feel pretty good that it's going to be Clayton-Tune, not Malik Willis. Because to me, if you're putting out your backups and not really trying to win this game, you might as well go a whole hog and keep your backup quarterback healthy. Because you don't know what's up with Jordan Love.

He's coming off of a concussion. Malik Willis also has an injury right now. His is a shoulder, not a concussion. And Minnesota's defense, let's be real, is playing better than any defense in the entire league. If the Packers were playing all their starters, and it sounds like J.J. McCarthy might come back, which I think is an upgrade for them over Max Broseberg. Don't you think Minnesota would have a chance to win this game straight up

anyways at home, the home field advantage, like against the Packer starters? I kind of think I would take the Vikings in this game the way these two teams are playing. So all of that is to say I love just six and a half points. I think they win by a lot. I mean, I feel like this one could be six of one, half a dozen of another. I agree with everything that you said,

but I feel like something stupid could happen to because, None of this stuff matters. So, like, something stupid where, like, Packers pick six with some, you know, corner that, like, hasn't played a time. Whatever, whatever. I just feel like some, I don't know. A lot of these games, I feel like a lot of stupid stuff could happen. Obviously, I'm influenced by the Christmas Day game. Yeah.

But the crowd was so amped for that game. And it's a division matchup. And what really is selling me is some of the soft stuff you can't put into the model. Fair. It was Harrison Smith after the game saying I've never been a part of a better performance than this. And if you go look at what they've done the last eight weeks, something like that, they haven't given up a passing touchdown. He said this defense, which is an older group, maybe Brian Flores is leaving, maybe Harrison Smith is leaving. It's a lot of guys who have been there together and they're having fun playing ball right now.

This feels kind of like a last fun, like what could be more fun than just beating down on an overmatch Packers team? I just, it just makes a lot of things. I'm with you. I'm with you, but it's just not one of my favorite ones. Okay. What's your second pick? The Rams. Okay.

Sean McVeigh says that the starters were at least play. I think he was a little, I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed, right, about what happened on Monday night against Atlanta. I think, you know, I don't care. Was it seven and a half? I understand that there's like a hook involved. I don't care. The Arizona Cardinals are so banged up.

Their defense, I feel like, is. it might be easier to make a list of who's playing than who's not playing from who the projected starters were ahead of the season. I don't think Marvin Harrison Jr.'s playing. I think there's a lot of missing pieces. And I think the Cardinals are kind of like, okay, next, I mean, Jacoby Brissette, notwithstanding, he's been great. Same with Trey McBride.

Like, there's a lot of great things. But I'm not saying that they're punting on the whole season. I'm just saying that I don't think in this matchup, I think that the Rams need to dial in. They're not getting a buy. You know, they're not going to get, they're not getting home field. They got to dial in. that was not the loss they wanted. Matthew Stafford has not.

He's thrown like seven interceptions all season long. So these are weird stuff. They need to get the weirds out. Yeah. And I think they want Stafford to go into the playoffs with a positive couple drives. And I think the defense, again, there's only so many players you can sit anyways, but I think they want to get the defense on track. And this Cardinals team has been phoning it in for a while.

Okay. Now we're to the third fit. And I really, I love those first two things. and I like a lot of others, but I just don't love them. So maybe I'll just go through some of the options. I think my top options, and I'll give my, like, extra picks at the end. My top options would be the bills favored only by a touchdown in the final game at Ralph Wilson Stadium, despite the fact we would expect to see Mitchell Tribesky and some of the backups in that game.

Josh Allen will be starting, but they're playing the jet. The emotions and the way that I think they're going to want to start with Josh Allen, that's one. I would go with that one. Okay. The other two are the two at AFC South teams. Again, we're taking clear motivations. Yep. And I'm taking, you know, I kind of like the Jags and Texans as heavy favorites to cover their numbers. Now, are the Texans a team that you can trust to cover 10 and a half at home against Riley Leonard? I think they are. The Jaguars are playing for their division championship against a really bad Titans one. I like that a lot, too. But you said to go with the bills.

I think I will. I think you help get over the top. I mean, look, I'm with you on all three. I agree with your logic on all three, but I just don't think, like the bills, this is it at an iconic stadium. Like they're moving to their parking lot. Their whole new stadium is ready next season, but this is it. So you're telling me that they don't have some, like, I don't know, you said Ray Davis

on Game Dave, View, I'm with you on that, some crazy play that's stupid to alignment. Like maybe Dionne Dawkins scores a touch. down for goodness. It's like something like that that like means something to them against a Jets team where has been totally deflated since like a while back. I just feel like I'm totally with you. I don't and I think that number is very achievable too. Like if that number were 12 and a half, I might feel different because maybe they just kind

of whatever backdoor cover at the end. But the number is tasty enough where I just think the bill, they want to go out on that high note. They're they also really want to get everyone. one wants the coveted five seed, both AFC, NFC, NFC, that five seed is like such an advantage because both of the four seeds seem very lackluster this year in the NFC South and, of course, the AFC North. So the bills are like, we want that five seed.

So they're really motivated to it. They're not going to in any way leave this one to chance. That's my, that's my. Yeah, I agree. The only thing that's tricky there is just the slight hesitation about motivation and going all that, whereas you know the Jaguars are doing everything. that they need to do to go beat the Titans. But like, do they beat them by 12 and a half?

I think they will, and that's why I like them all. I will go with the bills. I don't know. Don't let me talk you into it. What do you like as your third pick? I mean, I like all those. Yeah, I like, I mean, I'll go with whichever one you don't. Like, I think the Houston number against Indianapolis where Philip Rivers is like in

the building helping out. Yeah, he's the bat. Riley Leonard. Like, like, I mean, it just feels like perhaps you're. conceding the, like 10 and a half in that situation feels pretty solid. Yeah, everyone gave Riley Leonard a nice pat on the back for coming in a few weeks back and looking okay. I think that's a little different starting the game against Houston in the Houston.

Talk about a game that's going to be a party. All right, you want to pick the Texans as your third one. I mean, unless you really want that, I like all of those. I'll take whatever one you don't. I like them all too. I got to say in the end. The only other one that I think it's worth considering to be on the list would be Philadelphia

to cover three and a half points. Interesting. Okay, with their backup. I agree with you. That's what I had. I think Tanner McKee and their backups are good enough. I got to say, I got to go with my gut. My gut likes the Jags even more than the bills.

Okay, then I'll go with the, I'll switch to the bills. Okay. So everyone keeping track, you can look. You can like them all. We're giving them, we're giving away. You don't have to just pick three games at home. You can choose whatever you want. for my official picks, we're going to both go in on the Broncos minus 12 and a half to beat the Chargers backup.

I'm taking the Vikings minus six and a half. And in the end, I kind of just my gut. I like the Jags minus 12 and a half a little more than the bills, but I really like the bills. Great. I'm doing the bills. You have the bills minus seven. You have the Rams and then you have the Broncos. What a great 2025 we had on the show.

Thank you for having me. Oh, I mean, look, we got to play out. to go. I know, but I still am grateful for 2025. You're, you're people, I always say this. Like, you are the hardest person, working person in the building. You're here every freaking day. And

it's, this is a tough year. It's a challenging year around here and you've been crushing it. Only, only because you're back at the, at the house running your computer models. You're not here, but you're doing that in numbers game and everything else. But yeah, we're going to keep it going. And I like that Cynthia's coming off an undefeated 3-0 week. And, uh,

I kind of like in the normal games, too. I kind of like the bears. I kind of like the dolphins, the cover 10 and a half. Kind of like the browns. But those are just little extra ones for you as we go into the year. Like, sure, but like also unsure. You know what I mean? Like, just because stupid stuff happens in game where there's, like, does Miles

Garrett get the record? Gosh, I hope so. Yes. Like, I hope they sell out to make sure he gets that. No, I don't want Joe Burr to get hit. Don't give me wrong. but like just give him the dang record. I saw that line and I was like, do I trust the Cincinnati?

I know they've been playing well lately. Do I trust the Cincinnati Bengals in the 25 seasons to be favored by seven and a half? Nope. They're going up against one of the best defense league. I really don't. So the Browns are just one little extra. But we have our three official picks. Locked in.

We will be back next week. Sounds good. And the best week of all of the season. You like Wild Card? I do too because it's over three days. that Monday night little extra. You get the three games on Sunday. And like an underdog could win.

But you know what? We got a great weekend of football ahead. The Saturday games will be recapping it all live on YouTube on Sunday night. Join us there. What's up? It's Cam Jordan. I'm back with season three of your favorite podcast. The Off the Edge with Cam Jordan podcast.

Tap in every Wednesday to hear conversations with my friends and stars from the NFL, the sports world in general and entertainment. about anything from teams and players making waves to pop culture and I'll take you inside my journey through my 15th season in the NFL looking forward to you joining me this season the season of more on the off the edge with cam join podcast catch new episodes every Wednesday on the iHeart radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast wasabi hot cloud storage store more and do more with your data try them for free at wasabi dot com this is an iHeart podcast guaranteed human