NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - NFL Wild Card Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: January 10, 2025

NFL Daily host Gregg Rosenthal welcomes NFL Network's own Cynthia Frelund to help you get your bets ready for the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs. In this episode, the duo picks against the spread between the Buccaneers and Commanders, Chargers and Texans, as well as the Packers and Eagles.NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Welcome to NFL Daily, where neither snow nor rain nor heat nor ash falling from the sky is going to stop us from Getting our picks in. Yes, we are back. I'm in my somewhat smoky garage. I admit, got to get back inside. And Cynthia Freeland is down the coast a little bit. How are you doing this week? I am in better shape than you. We're a little further. It seemed like further south was better. So we're good here. We're just the puppies and I are hanging out, making sure that they stay. I'm like really psycho about making sure that we've got so many air purifiers going that the huskies seem to be okay. Yeah, we're fine. That's the thing. We're close and we're right there.

But it's also so crazy to be, like, driving home. The couple times I've driven home this week, especially on Wednesday on the 405 to be on the 405 and as you're coming to the tent and you look straight and it's blue skies if you just don't look. If you look two degrees to the left, you see the palisades fire and it's raging. And you look two degrees to the right, like 2 p.m., and you can see the Eaton fire.

And to see both of that and then to drive into it. And obviously we can kind of see it essentially, like it looks like it's at the end of our streets, but really it's a couple miles away or a mile away, and there's a canyon between it. And, you know, we just are feeling for everyone out there, of course, we mentioned on the preview show with Patrick Claibon that, The NFL is encouraging people to donate to Red Cross.org slash NFL. So just mentioning that again. And I mentioned personally, Meals on Wheels West does a lot of great work with the elderly and people near the poverty line that can use food.

And I know for a fact that they were delivering literally yesterday to their clients. And everyone in the Palisades was accounted for, which is really great on their end. And I know you just came back from a Costco run where you're picking up because you are that kind of person supplies. for people that I have not been to Costco in Southern California and in a long, long time. And it was a wild experience. But I'm also like a big pet fan. So I wanted to make sure to be able to donate. There's a lot of like a lot of pets that are displaced as well. So in addition to human stuff, which everyone needs more around here, there was also a lot of pets that you can help out as well. And that was, you know, very I before we got started here, obviously pulled Clyde on

because you hadn't met Clyde yet. So obviously you need to meet him. yes you're beautiful dog and and uh we've got nory in the backyard we made a little tent over her so that like the smoke air and the ash that's falling like doesn't fall in her yeah and you might be saying like why are you doing a podcast look we've got the whole rest of the day i've got the next right the next 48 hours all i've been doing is doom scrolling and watching the news and getting our family ready for what we need to but it's it's fine it's okay to work it's a good distraction a little bit bit for a few hours as are our picks except for last week not a good distraction and by the way before i get further in the show we are going to try to do a saturday night recap show live with bill

barnwell on youtube so i want people to go to the youtube channel while while i'm here yeah you know like and subscribe it there and you can support us there and cynthia's youtube channel as well numbers game and just just check her out as well so all that out of the way getting into our picks we did not have a good week 18 let's just ignore it we literally didn't win a game week 18 got us with all the sitting starters and we thought we were cute and you pushed one of your games which didn't you know which at least was a normal game so technically you didn't go oh and three you went oh and two it's just comedy that's pure comedy but we're still over 500 for the year we're going to bounce well over and we're going to bounce back i'm you know if you check out the game debut picks which we keep track of i'm 20 over against the spread all year so So I'm annoyed I'm not higher in this format, but we're still above 500. We're going to bounce back. You give me your first pick. This is the show where we make three picks a week.

Okay. So I'm going to start down in, I guess it's Sunday night and down in Tampa. I think that the bucks, it's a three point line is what I'm seeing right now. And I think that the bucks cover that. I don't, there's a lot. These lines are really interesting this week. There aren't, I don't look at anything and I'm like, I feel so confident. But I think that one is the one where I feel.

feel like the experience of Todd Bowles in the situation, the added pieces to the defense, Antoine Winfield Jr. That's a huge upgrade in their secondary. That's a huge massive deal. I think that one, Tampa by at least three points, that one, I wish it was two and a half, but whatever, but you know, it is what it is. I'm joining you. I had a feeling. Both of us were on the bucks last week. Obviously, we lost that. And that was a division matchup. Didn't expect that. They were lucky to get out of there with a win, much less winning by eight in the end, the way the Saints defense played them. But I think these playoff numbers, they're hard in terms of nothing sticks out because you have less to choose from. And the numbers at the end of the

season, they're tighter. And I was glad to see this one because to me, this was the only obvious one for me as well. This was my number one pick. I'm with you that I think they're a little undervalued because to me these two teams are if you look at all the numbers are quite even and that's why it's three over the course of the season. But ultimately their best to me is so much better I think than the commander's best. They're a high variance team. I'll admit it. But even their average game and the commander's average game, that's close. But their best I think could win by a couple scores here. Even if you just look at the players, Their defense is a little better.

They do have better players overall in their secondary and up front. Jalen McMillan, I'll take him over any wide receiver two from Washington. I really like their offensive line, if you compare them to the offensive line of Washington. They're tight end, KDOT, and I'd take them over Zekker. It's all these little advantages. It's not a huge thing. Jaden Daniels is tough to deal with, and the Bucs defense is nothing special. But like I said, this is the one I really like.

I think they get back to the divisional round. It'd be the fourth time in the fifth year for your boy, Baker Mayfield and Jason Light. I don't know if Jason Light's your boy, but they're pretty good there in Tampa. I like, I think Todd Bowles is my favorite of all the people in Tampa. I just think he is salt to the earth. Plus, they have a guy from Okumis on their staff, duh, Tideon coach is from Okumis. So he would love that. He's got a good hometown.

You are a Todd Bowles guy. And it's good they won that game last week. I literally was thinking at halftime. man, if they lose this game, who knows what could happen there. But now, if you get back to the divisional round, like I said, fourth time in fifth years, that would be outrageous. It's crazy. They actually have more wins than any team, Cynthia, in the NFC over the last five years.

Pretty good. Are you going to NFC or AFC with your next pick? I'm going to go. This one, like the points make me like it a lot more. I was a little surprised. I was shocked by my mom. model. I should say I should sell it harder. But I actually have Houston winning in that first game this weekend. I have Houston at home upsetting the Chargers. The Chargers are three point road

favorites. And while we've seen some disturbing things from this Texan's offense, defense at particular times, I think there's a few things that really bolster this for me. Number one, the injury report for the Chargers includes both of their starting running backs. I think that J.K. Dobbins plays, but they did sign Ezekiel Elliott to the practice squad, which at least adds a little bit of fanfare to the idea that they're not completely healthy. I also saw Rishon Slater. He practiced in full as of the last time the practice report came out, but practicing in full does not make you 100% healthy. And Roshan Slater has been excellent this season, but without him, that could be.

be a much more difficult value proposition. We know that this Texans front brings pressure at the second highest rate. We know that their back end of their defense. They have backed it up with Derek Stingley Jr. and Camarie Lasseter. I just think in this matchup in a one game sample size, if they can get that run game going like we saw from the Texans in week 18, which I know wasn't really for anything, I still think that that is an advantage over the charges, at least if you're giving me three points too. I have them winnings, you know, on their own, but I but I think that if you're, especially if you're giving me three points, it's just as silly not to take that number.

Well, we're going against each other here. I'm going to be boring and be Johnny Public. I have a feeling this is going to be one of the heaviest bet games. And we're not allowed to bet. So we're just making, but I have a feeling this will be one of the heaviest action games. It's the first of the weekend. And I just think the public is going to be on the chargers because it seems too obvious.

And generally, public loses in those cases now i i have noticed with this this particular weekend i am in on a lot of favorites this weekend and it actually has been a favorites type of season and a public type of season so i don't know if that continues at all that doesn't mean anything and obviously on a pick-to-pick basis but that's what this season has been like and i just look at the way the chargers are playing now i look at the texans are 26th in total offensive efficiency for the season 26th. And they're playing a defense. It's not as good as the Texans defense. Like Mac and Bosa have been a little quiet lately. But what they've done well all season is beat bad offenses and kind

of make you beat them. Go the long way down the field and just hold points down. I think their ninth and overall efficiency on defense. Part of that is their schedule, but this is an easy matchup for them, I think, ultimately. And then you just look at the way my guy Herbo is playing with so much confidence. I've talked a lot about this game already on the show because we had Seth Payne on, who does radio in Houston. So we talked about this game for like 25 minutes. I don't want to keep repeating myself.

Ultimately, I lean chargers in a week where I don't have a lot of favorite picks. This was my third favorite pick. But since you made it and I'm going against you, I'll go second with it. Give me your third pick. Unless you have anything else you want to jump in on there. No, I mean, look, I was gut-wise. I was surprised that the model went with Houston. Then I looked into a little bit more and some specifics into it.

And I was like, I guess one point. They have great players, great team. Like they're an average team and you're an underdog at home. I can see why you don't even have to win the game. You just got to have to keep it with them three. All right. I want to say that I want to take Philadelphia with the points to cover. But my problem is that as of right now, I like, if Jordan Love doesn't play or like is not okay,

then that number is going to go in the wrong direction. I think we could make our picks, assuming both starting quarterbacks are playing if you want. It's up to you. It's up to you. We could both put backup picks, not to give away my third pick is too. We could have a backup as our fourth anyways, because I don't love it that much more, but this is also the game I'm going to pick.

Oh, great. I think, well, let's see. I'll just go purely on numbers. I mean, I guess I technically, I guess I, look, I'm going to tell. you the numbers say right now I technically like the Rams plus one and a half tiny like point point like by tiny percentage points well that's not much do you want to just go with the Eagles as your pick if that's the one you feel good about let's go for it yeah I mean my my problem with the Rams pick is if any displacement happens I don't want to get into that with Arizona and all that stuff so

I'm going to go with I'm going to go with the Eagles to cover four and a half points not eight and a half or whatever like if something weird happens that would be i wouldn't like that but i think four and a half points is a manageable number for a team that has this defense because for me josh jacobs is the key that makes this offense work for the packers and where does josh jacobs do his damage he has the most yards the most yards after contact and the most touchdowns between the tackles where does jaylin carter live where does jordan davis live in the middle so getting the outside run going and like that's Zach Bond territory like no thank you i just think it's going to be very hard for the packers to stay to sustain english sustain that level of efficiency

and keep jordan love he's now been great against the blitz why because he's been in manageable downs and distances he's not heaving it for no reason this is a team that's so pot committed to rushing in the first half of games they've done it the most in the NFL it's something like 49% there's been eight games or so where they've run for more than 50% in the first half. It doesn't matter if it's a situationally the right thing to do.

They're doing it anyways because their rush rate over expected is something like plus 15%. It's like massive numbers. So you mess with Josh Jacobs' ability to be efficient. It forecasts for a hard game for the pack. Yeah, we didn't talk about that much on the preview show. So I'm really glad you did because I think Zach Bonn.

The reason he's been so good in part and been their skeleton key for kind of just unlocking everything is he can basically be a defensive lineman when they need him to be in the running game. And yet he's great if he's not on the line of scrimmage and he's playing linebacker. He's truly a hybrid in a league that is looking for him. Guy can basically play multiple positions. And yes, in this game, the Eagles defense and that Vic Fangio defense, has gotten a lot of credit this year and you think about the young secondary and you think about

jalen carter and you make a good point there but it's really a team defense that usually fangio's defense that's their vulnerabilities against the run and it is just not the case at all this year so this is my pick as well i'm going eagles four and a half we are together on two wow and uh we're opposite on one and we're only going to end up talking about three games really on this show because yeah that was the one I felt the best in and again it's it's about whether you value the last month or do you value the course of the season I think the Packers are a really good team but I agree with what Daniel Jeremiah and Brian Baldinger our friends said on NFL Network the other day when I was watching they thought the Eagles are the favorites in the NFC and they should be I agree

have a Bobby Lane jersey behind me yeah they absolutely should be they're they just have so many different ways to beat you. I think they're well coached. I'm not saying that if the lions are fully staffed. I'm saying that in the situation that we find ourselves in today, 100%. You know, I if I'm yes, but that's the thing is that's why we play the full season, right? Like, because me, the lions, you know, maybe that advantage will be enough. But I, I certainly, my preseason pick for the Super Bowl, Chiefs, Eagles, feeling pretty good about it right now. Yeah, I had, I had Bill's Lions and I had Lions Eagles in the NFC Championship game. So I feel good about all that.

Don't ask me who else I had in a championship game. I had them losing to the Chargers this weekend. So I don't think my Texans of the championship game is going to happen. But I don't know if I'm going to pick the Eagles over the Lions if that game happens, the home field advantage. I'm talking about them favor in a vacuum. And so as good as this Packers team is, ultimately I think the number one mismatch. And I didn't talk about this in preview in this game is the Eagles pass protecting when they need to.

And they're always in great situations for Hertz, third and three, third and four, whatever it is, first down. And I do think when they're going to need to pass, I just don't trust the Packers to get on him at all. And maybe they'll have to blitz more, but they've shown they can pick that up and handle that well. And so I think there could be a lot of points in this game, even though they're two pretty, good defenses, but I just trust the Eagles to get over that number. In the end, you said the Rams would have been next for you. For me, it probably would have been the Broncos. It probably would have been the Broncos with the points too. Yeah, getting weird number. Feels like a lot. And you could see Josh Allen going crazy at the end of the game in what ultimately is a close game. But I just think

the Broncos are a good team. And that's a lot of points to give a good team in the playoffs. Okay, so we didn't have Game Day View this week. Do you remember what you would have said for your write this down? I can go first because I know my write this down offhand. I don't. So for daily listeners, yes, who don't know Game Day View, write this down at the very end. We give our maybe our favorite pick, but usually it's our favorite prop type of pick for the week. And I got three in a row, but I've been riding Jamir Gibbs and that's not available this week.

I did not have one planned out. You got to pick something else. Yes, okay, go ahead. I can go on board this one with me, if you like. And it is Cam Acres to have more than 24 and 23 and a half rushing yards against his former team. He's coming off a 65 yard outing on the ground against the Lions. If you're looking at Sam Darnold, what's the outlet? It's going to be the run.

Is Aaron Jones 100%? Your girl doesn't know. But I do know that if I'm looking at 23 yards against your former team, are you kidding me? I love a good narrative thing that matches my math. So like anger alongside, revenge alongside of math is like, that is the best combination. And he's been running really well lately. He passes the eye test, had a good, one of the few players who had a good week 18 against the Lions. I did not have one picked out.

As I had mentioned, we had evacuated. We've been on the run. We're back at home now. So I did not do any game debut prep. And we ended up, the show ended up getting canceled. But now that we're talking and I'm thinking about these games, specifically, and we're talking about the bills, I kind of like just James Cook's rushing number, whatever it is. It's not a good way to pick props is just, oh, whatever that number is.

But ultimately, I do think that's the mismatch in this game. And I think they've shown us they can win multiple types of ways. And I think they'll be patient with him. And so I think it's a James Cook game against the Broncos. That's where I would go. Yeah. So I think a James Cook touchdown is where I'd go with that. I love like, same thing. Because what is, you know, the most rushing touchdowns with 16 on the season, 18 touchdowns tied for the second most among any players. And if you look at the difference between losses and wins for the Broncos, they allow rushing touchdowns in losses. And they kind of don't in wins. That's the rule of thumb for them this season. So if you think the bills are going to win, then you think, hey, a rushing touchdown could

happen. So that's how I'm playing that one too. I think that James, I don't know the number offhand for him for rushing yards, but I'm liking the touchdown odds. I love that. And yes, apologies to the other two games this weekend that we just didn't even mention at all. But I don't know, a Raven Steelers game with that big a number, I'd rather just watch the football and not stress out about it. It's just, uh, let's see what happened. I want to see like the like is George Pickens going to keep his keep the lid on it or not because I just think this is one where he's like,

like it's going to be wild like that that is a fun side note. And yeah, Vikings Rams to me is the most unpredictable game of the weekend. You could tell me anything would happen in the game, no matter where it is. I know, I guess you were leaning Rams if it's in Los Angeles. I actually have the Vikings by one. So it was going to be Rams of the points. Gotcha. So the old threading the needle.

But that's one I have no feel on. I just want to watch it and enjoy it. As we will do the rest of the weekend. Like I said, we're going to be back on Saturday night. Haven't done this. We did some TNFs early in the season, but it got difficult with the game debut schedule to do it live. So I really appreciate everyone who has supported the show all season long. Let's get the community going.

Show up Saturday night. We'll go live on YouTube, probably about 10 minutes after the game with one of the best in the business, Bill Barnwell talking about two big AFC games. So I'm really looking forward to that. I'm going to check out Numbers game on your YouTube channel in the meantime.

Thank you, Cynthia. Yes, when we take the super out of Super Wildcard Weekend, you can't say Super anymore. It is just Wild Card Weekend. That is when you know football is back. We'll see you seven. Hey everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks.

On Move to Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. to the Move the Sticks podcast on the iHeart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your

podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL fantasy football podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL fantasy football podcast, your ultimate source

for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your Listen to the NFL fantasy football podcast on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL, visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. This is an IHeart podcast.