NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - NFL’s Best Defenses with Aaron Schatz

Episode Date: August 9, 2023

In a room filled with heroes - Dan Hanzus, Gregg Rosenthal, and Marc Sessler get you caught up on news from around the league including a quick review of the first episode of Hard Knocks (02:45), Ron Rivera having to walk back comments about Eric Bieniemy (08:40), Kirk Cousins' future with the Vikings (14:25), Teddy Bridgewater signing with the Lions (17:15), and more! After the break, Football Outsiders' Aaron Shatz joins the show to discuss his defensive rankings headed into the new season (23:47). NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. The Around the NFL podcast. Put's the Papa in papaya. From the Chris Wesleying podcast studio, it's Around the NFL. I am Dan Hansus. I got heroes here. Greg Rosenthal.

Mark Sessler. Busy, busy, busy. Cowboys Camp on. Monday. Check out that one. The Hard Knocks podcast debuted with episode one recap Tuesday and shout out to Eric Roberts behind the glass who's been grinding

his heinie off all week for us and doing elite production work. We did that with Connie and special guest Rich Eisen check that out if you haven't yet and now we have two more new episodes of ATN today and Thursday football. Mark

is back. I want to If there are people out there that maybe aren't hard knocks, officinados and watchers, and I'd go hot and cold on that show. I just want to say, listen to this episode that you

and Rich and Colleen did because, I mean, well, we know you're a Jets fan and Riches too, but like, you kind of designed in a really wonderful way how you became one, what this first episode meant. And yet it wasn't, if you aren't a Jets fan, it didn't, it wasn't laborious. It was very well done.

And like, I can only imagine the cloud that you're floating on, seeing this whole Jets team and what they are. I don't want to be that guy, but I think it is important sometimes to understand, like, how lucky we are, like getting paid to watch the Jets Hard Knock Show and then talk about it with my friends. It's pretty awesome and really excited. And Rich, like it would have blown your mind. I listened to half of it. I listened to the rich part so far.

Usually I would be listening on the way in, but we had a very important call with our great friend. We did. Henry Hodgson. Handsome Hank. That cut into my time. A planning call. We'll leave it at that.

Looking as handsome as ever, by the way. It was fantastic. We'll do a little Hard Knocks talk a little bit later, but we got a lot going on today because we have one of the smartest football men in the business, Aaron Schatz, over at FTN. He released his annual football almanac, 2003. And obviously, if you don't read this almanac, you're not really prepared for the season. So we're going to dig in on the defensive side of the ball, which we'll We haven't really tackled, tackled.

That's why this is that right. Nailed it. Nailed it. We're going to work that side of the ball, that conversation with Aaron and what defenses stand out to him and what defenses might be ready for regression or to be outright terrible. Get into all that. But first, let's do some news. Just understand this.

I don't get a what goes down this year. We will always be in games, no matter what. We break some shoelaces and let us get a few points on us. Guys, we're going to be in. in every game. Guys, this is across the field on the back shoulder. Look at this.

I don't know if there's any other human on earth that can make that throw. He's our quarterback. He's ours. He's ours. Fucking awesome, man. I think that should be a drop going forward, Eric Roberts. Yes.

As I said to Rich Eisen, Ulbrick, the defensive coordinator for the Jets, Jeff. He speaks for all of us as Jets fans. He's ours. He's ours. He's ours. Watching that episode. And, yeah, that was in the defensive room where the coordinator is going over, some plays from practice. We'll get some thoughts out there.

Anybody wants to hear my thoughts? Obviously, go check out the podcast with Connie and I. But episode one thoughts, Mark, we'll start with you. Albreka, to me, was one of the stars of the episode because, you know, you would think it's just Sala calling the plays on defense and, like, what does the coordinator do? I mean, I love his fire. And I think that there's something to him and what the jets are. There's a lot of connective tissue there. And, I mean, I think this episode, maybe if it lacked four or five deep narrative threads,

like some Hard Knocks ones do, and this show us a chance to get into that. It was really about the experience of Aaron Rogers. And I think for those that have been critical of Aaron Rogers, I'm certainly one of those in the past. This is a different version of this human being. And, like, you just get this feeling that he couldn't be happier being there. And you hear all the giggles and the anticipation when they're watching him whip that pass in that film session there with Ulbrick.

And it's like this team, and there's so many young players, but teams, teammates, coaches, it's like they have watched Jesus Land. That is sort of the aura I got watching this first episode. And it's kind of incredible because it reminds me of nothing the New York Jets have ever produced on a human level. Right. It was like the Hard Knocks version of Barbie. It was just like feel good, easy entertainment.

but it was also like a little different than hard knocks usually is like they decided to I think maybe mix it up of just it was really all about Aaron Rogers and the good vibes and everything and it's cool to get go along on the journey with these teams and it helps that the team is the center or one of the center pieces of the NFL right now it just it just does to be along the ride it was great to be along the ride with the lions too and I think that's why we enjoyed part of that you know season with them I we'll see it'll change over the next three or four weeks, but I really enjoyed it. And I love the weed celebration that Sauce and Rogers had going on. And that they just suddenly alluded to it. They were like, expectations are higher in New York. Well, that's who left Shriver.

Of course, Greg would like that. Who arrives in a helicopter. And he's great in it. I love Leap Schreiber. I mean, I already, we all loved him, but like, he there's, like, Colleen mentioned it, like, there's this humility to him. And like, he was like sort of a kid in a candy store, yet a bunch of those players are too young to really understand his career.

as an actor and like solid didn't even know he was the narrator of the show yeah we were we were talking about money and i were talking about yeah put yourself in his shoes there that the production team send you to the practice in a helicopter literally while landing next to the field and everyone's expecting you know some huge celebrity to get out and obviously schreiber is a celebrity uh but that was a funny little uh positioning of that and well another thought on olbrick because i already have regrets we do our MVP um rankings at the end of each episode. I should have put him a place in that conversation for just his takedown of the do

your job. Yeah. Complex. That was, that was good. He actually said, he's going to get on Belichick's radar. He actually said, fuck that. He said, you got to do your job. What else you're going to do?

That's the next level. It was time for somebody to take down do your job, which is the most tired cliche to post on walls and complexes and Ulbrick did it. I will dress that next. There's too many, too many things on the walls with the jets, though. They've got like 14 different. That's a thing. slogans.

I know, but all these places. Yeah. What is their main one? I forget what it was. All gas,

no break. I know, but it's like AG, no N. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.

There was a lot of the aerobreations. It's too much. What was that, Nate Hackett? I just want to fly around like a butterfly. If Zach Wilson

never panned out, I will remember him eating uncrustable after a preseason performance. That was, I thought his part of the show

was a little uncomfortable. No, I think it was good. It was interesting. I don't think he's in a weird place. He's in a very tough position, very tough position, especially if you're aging backwards and defying, you know, human kind. He's now 16 years old. Yeah, I was thinking this is the one quarterback that literally looks like a boy. I was thinking it would be tough for Packers fans to watch this, though.

It's very much like watching the guy that your favorite player, your best player for the last 15 years just be totally rebrand. born. Like, it wouldn't be a fun. Your ex-wife, you have four kids with, and you were in love with. And it just, over time, it just broke down. And then your ex-found love. And what happened in the time of her life. And it's on TV.

And that wasn't acting right. Like, that was, like, on this very podcast five months ago, we're talking about how he's not acting right, how he was basically an inconsistent human, that he was being a jerk. And then you see him, and suddenly he's in better shape. He's cracking jokes. He's happy. He's like a whole new guy. And you're like, the Packers aren't innocent and all of that.

Whatever they said about A.R. Rogers on TV is a lie. Let's get into, and yes, check out the Hard Knocks podcast, and we'll have that up every Tuesday night on wherever you get your podcast. And on this feed, this ATN feed. So it's pretty easy for you people to check out if you want. You people, let's get to it. Ron Rivera, head coach of the commanders, created a bit of a mess for himself this week.

Eric Bienemies, the new offensive coordinator. We know Bienemey's history with the Chiefs. and his long struggle to try to get a head coaching job. It never happened. So now he's off on his own attempting to build a bridge to that head coaching job. So this is a very important year and era for Biennamy as a head coach. Rivera said some players are, quote, concerned with Biennami's intensity in training camp, which led to a big story, both for and against Biennesty, mostly for Biennamy and against Ron Rivera,

putting that out there, the commander's coach then followed up by offering a lengthy opening statement to his press conference on Wednesday, noting that his comments, quote, took on a different life. Don't do that thing. Don't do the thing where you blame the media for blown up the story because you said it and you should know Ronnevera how this world works. But anyway, it took on a different life than he intended and that he wasn't as straightforward as he needed to be here as well, as he said. We talked about it and it's, you know, and it was just, I basically told him, I put my foot. in my mouth. I think what I said wasn't as clear as it needed to be. And I think the understanding of it is just the fact that I think everybody's making, in my opinion, a little bit more than needs to be made of this. Because again, the results are what you're looking for on the field.

And so far, the last couple days have been outstanding. I think Eric has done a great job of communicating his message now that guys, you know, have opened up, talked with him. He's going to He's been a great bit of growth the last couple of days that guys are starting to have the aha moments. That's why we do this. That's why we want that. You know, it's a, we had a guy coming out of a break trying to shut him up. I just really burst out of it and the ball was right on time. And you sit there and go, yeah, that's enough.

All right. Curtains to that. Get the cane up. A long cane. Get it. I wanted to slam on the desk at the end. He gets real high. Oh, was there?

Okay. I mean, but that's what I think how Rod. Rivera gets into trouble is he's just like a free and easy, like long answers to every question talker. And he's absolutely right. It was way too much was made about it. I think people that read the quotes and tried to make it more than it was didn't listen to how he said it and in context. Because he was just kind of saying how like, hey, look, players these days, like they're not used to coaches that coach them hard, essentially. And that a couple of them had come up to him and say, hey, can you go talk to him? But he was saying it sort of in a joking way. And

Bienemy has this reputation as a coach that he's always a little hard edge and people are just like, oh, okay. And because not every coach is like that anymore, that they're very sensitive to the players. But he also was saying, even as he was saying that the players coming up to him, he was talking it down and saying like a lot of these young players, they've got to get used to it. I think Biedemi's response was as telling as anything, though. He said, yes, I am intense. Eric Bienemy is who is who he is. Eric B. Enemy knows how to adapt and adjust. Eric Bienemy is a tough, hard-nosed coach.

That's three third persons in three sentences. But he also says, you know, they got to understand. I'm their biggest critic. I'm also their number one fan, any of his former players. No, I've got their back more than anyone I'm going to support. This was blown out of proportion. I don't, I don't, it's dust in the wind, you know, hours from now. But I don't think that Ron Rivera, who I'm, if I had to pick a coach to like step in it in this way,

I would not have put Ron Rivera in my top 20. He's done it a lot, I feel like, over the last few years. This to me is like this. I mean, I think he didn't think it would turn into all this. But my problem is when he does the backpedaling where the ankle breaks, Dan, he read a, he had a written statement. You're Ron Rivera. You've been doing this for a long, long time.

Go out there and defend your coach. That's how you know. That's how you know he really had regrets about how it played out and how it was dissected in the media. Yeah, but you don't draw a written statement unless you're like in legal trouble. This is like something. Just go back your guy. He's just trying to put out a fire. Right.

And I have no problem with, like, I mean, so Ben Standing of the Athletic had it, I thought a good line. He said, there is intense and there is mean. Be enemy's coaching style is firmly in the former category. I have no problem with this coaching style. I mean, I'm not a player. But I think the problem is that training camp largely sucks. I think you're going to find them to be complaining about something at some point to someone. And it's been a major shift.

And I think a lot of the reports, though, coming out of Washington training camp is that your quarterback, Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissette, have not been thriving. Like, there have been a lot of up and down, which is not surprising. But I think one of the more intriguing preseason starts is Howell versus the Browns on Friday night. And they said they've gotten better. And Rivera alluded to that over the last handful days. And it's interesting because he's a former running backs coach. And we saw it even at Cowboys practice.

Like running backs coaches are different. They're always the ones barking like crazy. And Bianami has this reputation, which is interesting because when you watch quarterback, he never said a word. No. But he has, he's always had this reputation as a like particularly hard-nosed guy barking on you. And that, to me, is very running back and very running backs coach-ish. But now he's the offensive coordinator running the whole time.

And it's a, in some ways, a loaded subject. So I don't want to take it too far in terms of what I saw in quarterback. But it was, it was interesting how Maholm's 95% of his conversations in game and the heat of the battle throughout the season and the playoffs was either with Andy Reid or with Matt Nagy. just was interesting to me. So I'm really, you know, like everyone else, you want to see what the enemy does with this, this great opportunity has. Well, we shall see.

In other news, Minnesota Vikings owner, Mark Wilf declined to say Tuesday whether he wants Kirk Cousins to resign with the franchise when his contract expires after the conclusion of this season. Putting that decision on GM, Quescia, Adofo Menza and coach Kevin O'Connell. Here's Wolf's quote. We'll leave that to Quessie and coach. to work through those discussions. There's always conversations on that,

but our real focus is 100% on 2023 and getting where we need to be and where I know we can be. Mark, my thoughts on this is, this is cool. It's going to work out, I think, how it should. I think Cousins is going to have

another productive, solid season. I think it's going to put him in a position to get paid, whether, and he's going to get paid again. He's going to sign another big deal, you know, two, three-year deal whether it's a Vikings or someone else. And it makes sense for the Vikings at this point, assessing a relationship that's lasted since 2018.

Where are we? Where are we? Where are we want to go going forward? Let's use this year as a real trial. Yeah, there's no, you know, consternation here. Cousins said back in June that he didn't even have any faint expectations that they'd even talk contract till next March. And he knows that. And I think, you know, I know you guys watched the whole quarterback thing.

But from what little I know, I watched little snippets here and there. But, I mean, Kirk Cousins came out as the big winner of that whole thing as the nicest man. you know, east of the Mississippi, I guess, if he is east, or he's north. Somewhere in there. I don't know. He's east and north, yes. But to me, it's just like, I think everything based on. I mean, it's a north-south, I guess, because it's...

It is, I mean, it's... It's a north-south tribut. It's not a sharp east or west. What's going on out here west of the Mississippi? Just way nicer guys than Kirk Cousins. I'd feel that he would have that on lockdown. Well, he's west of the Mississippi. Give him the whole country.

And I'll give him the west if he's west. Mark said east. Oh. Well, and east, so I'm giving him the whole thing. I apologize. Give them the whole nation. The whole thing. Continental.

East, not Hawaii or Alaska. Let's keep that out of the conversation. Let's calm down with the east and west of the Mississippi to kind of be the defining aspect of this country. What are we on wagons? It used to be, Greg. Absolutely. Right.

But, you know, what, I mean, outside of me just referencing it, how often is it getting reference? Guys, we've got Aaron Chats in six minutes. Gets a lot of pop. Gets a lot of pops. Go ahead. Ships. No, I think Vikings have set all off season. You know, we're redoing the books.

We're cutting money and we'll, you know, a lot of change could be coming. Yeah, how old Kirk Gunn's. going to be before the start of that next contract? Let me guess. Hang on. He came on. He's going to be like 35. It'll be 36 by the start of next season. It's like I'm doing, I got my top 50 free agents of 2024 coming out this week, Dan.

Plug it. Not sure where to put Kirk. I think I had him at around 10 or 11, but it's like that is getting up there where to me, ideally you would have him on a year to year. You like that. He'll get more than that. I think from another team somewhere

if the Vikings don't want to give them more than a year to you. Speaking of Vikings and quarterbacks, Teddy Bridgewater once upon the time of first round pick of the Vikings. He's bounced around a lot obviously and despite that has always kept Greg Rosenthal's attention as

his new project, perhaps his new version of Gino Smith, now that he needs a QB to get behind that he's overlooked. Gino's eyes are wandering. Now that he's like, he's like, one of those men who, you know, he's with the, who's with the wife, and then he hits it big, and then all of a sudden the eyes start darting around, you know, that's, that's Gino.

You think Gino's, that's Gino's attitude? He seems to be quite plugged in. Greg, thank you for all the sport, you know, during when I was kind of down, but now I have a lot of options. I have a feast in front of me. I think he's barely aware of my existence as a human. He does follow me on Twitter. And I don't think that's changed. I think that's been Greg trying to be humble there. Consistent. But we're picking up on a little brad. Well, that's why I'm saying barely.

Because if you get the likes here and there, I get at least throw in the barely. Teddy Bridgewater, I'm pretty sure, is unaware of my existence. But I am happy he's a line. I mean, I would say this, and it happened again at the Cowboys Camp. A lot of people know Greg. Greg's been in the business for a long time. You've done your job at a high level.

We're very lucky to have you on the team here and around the NFL. And so I would not be surprised that Gino Smith recognized you. No, I would not be surprised. Greg also pointed out that Jerry Jones recognized him when he walked by and basically vaguely... That was me, though.

That was Dan. Oh, well, then what are we doing on? Like, what am I mean, you know, this entire show is filled with people like this. If Teddy ever was going to become the next Gino, he's in the right place. Now, I don't want Jared Gough to get hurt because that's what it would take.

Teddy is better than Nate Sudfield. I assume he's going to win that job. Do I think Teddy would be any worse than Jared Gough? Goff, if you took over, I do not. Still. I don't know. I think Jared Goff was quietly.

We're still doing it. The best version of him. We're still taking down Jared Goff, really for movies. I'm not just trying to have a solid career. In this great situation that is the Detroit Lions, Teddy Bridgewater would put up excellent numbers and be able to above. All these years. If he can stay healthy. Yeah.

I feel like all these years of bouncing around for Teddy now, he's had opportunities to kind of find his place, find his footing. The fact that it still hasn't happened. I think it tells you something. Not that he's a bad quarterback and certainly a likable guy and a great comeback story after what happened with his knee injury. Which was seven years ago at this point.

It's crazy. I mean, it tells you, yeah, he's hurt too much to be relied upon. But I still remember that Denver season. Nice little job. All right. A couple more things. You know, that tragic story,

Henry Rugg's former first round pick of the Raiders who got drunk. at a bar or a club and then went driving home in Vegas a couple of years back uh rear ended at a crazy speed a poor woman and her dog and they both burned to death in the car uh and he was way over the legal limit just a terrible story all the way around and rugs um 24 years old now he's been out of the league after the raiders cut him shortly after uh that incident in november of 2021 on wednesday clark county district court judge jennifer schwartz uh told rugs that it was one of the more tragic cases she had seen

in her sentencing of rugs to three to ten years in that fatal DUI Ruggs said to the parents and family of Miss Tinter that's the woman who died in the accident Tina Tinter I sincerely apologize for the pain and suffering I don't really know what else needs to be said on that one boys but just like one of the sadder stories

let's finish up with a little eight o'clock delight The Texans lose newly signed tackle We missed that one a few weeks ago. Titus Howard got a big deal. Good tackle combo in Houston, but they're not going to be around, Mark. He's out for six weeks. Nope, they got Laramiemi Tunsell. You do have George Font.

Maybe he can help out. Fan. Rams brought back. John Johnson. Is it Liev Schreiber or leave Shriver? I say leave. I've got to get that right. But I am hearing people say Liev now, and I don't like that at all. What is it, Eric?

Can you check into that? I've been hearing more of Leav, too. I feel like in Russia, it would definitely be Leav. I'm self-conscious when I say it every time. I've been saying leave my entire life. I'm not touching. Go ahead. John Johnson, what you know John Johnson most for?

Safety, Browns, Rams, Rams again. No, came on our show. Came on our show when we thought we were getting Robert Woods at the old calcium. And we were like, Hamana, haman, hama. Who is this? In your ear like seconds before he sat down, it was like, this is John Johnson or the Rams safety. It was a rookie at the time. Very close to the old Zeus are saying, well, Robert Woods.

Great to have you on the show. That would have went well. Karim Hunt visited the Colts after a trip to the Saints Jadavian Clowney visited Ravens Baker Mayfield and Kyle Tras will each start a preseason game

This could bubble into the worst quarterback situation They are co-number one QBs on the depth chart. Can we calm down a little bit over there in Tampa? Yeah, not fun Broncos lost another starter. Mike McGulitchie's out two to three weeks and then Rashad Bateman off the PUP list for the Ravens. It sounds like J.K. Dobbins is probably

going to end his hold in fair soon, even though no one has called it a whole thing. All right, and I'll tag that with Jonathan Taylor's left the scene in Indy to rehab his... He's gone inside. I actually think this is something where the journalism industry had an impact

because the cult's beat writers were like, can we get Jonathan Taylor off the field scowling at every practice? It's just sort of bad vibes, and then like a day or two later, they're like, he's just inside rehabbing. It's like, if he's just going to be standing there, it's kind of awkward. That's what's happening

in the news promo time football is back and NFL network has every preseason game including 23 of them live 23 and 23 Gregi big names putting new cities on their backs a new class putting their names on the map your team is back in action it's time for football the NFL preseason August 10th through the 26th on NFL network and stream on NFL plus we'll be right back with Aaron Shats You know I asked You know I asked Eric to send me something a little fresh Eric is from a different generation than us

and he found something that I don't think we would have found This sounds like something I was playing out of the boombox when Woody Harrelson and Wesley Snipes were dribbling poorly than white men can't jump has a bit of a C&C music factory vibe to it Here's a man that has a

CNC music factory vibe to him No, that doesn't make sense He is a great man He is one of the preeminent football minds He's the Oppenheimer Of, you know, detailed nuanced takes on football Founder of Football Outsiders

And now he's got his new Partnership with FTA TN as football almanac 2003. Aaron Shats welcome back to around the NFL. Hey, thanks for having me back on. I think I'm more Openheimer than I am C&C Music Factory, yeah.

You were a DJ, though. I do remember that. I was, but you were a professional DJ. We never would have played CNC Music Factory on my station. You were looking down on C&C. Yeah, there you go. That's in that Nathaniel Hackett, you know, dance instructor category right there that you were a DJ.

I'm impressed. I would not have, I would not have, I would not have guessed then. Yeah, it was my first job out of college. My buddy, Bob, and I saw Soul Asylum at the Trubidor like five years ago. How about that? Yeah, they're still going. Still doing it.

Still doing the thing. A lot of bands still going. Not all the original members, but still going. Got Perner in there. Some of the souls went back to where they- Winona Ryder, not in attendance, but I did look around. Aaron Schatz, again, this is it, and this is the guy. This is the almanac that you need to study.

ahead of a football season and we're lucky enough to have him here and Aaron we wanted to really kind of dive into the defensive side of the ball in our conversation with you because there were some things when you kind of look at your breakdowns on the DVOA side of things that

really stood out Greg. I mean why don't you get us going with this conversation? What's a rating that Shats and his team had that really jumped out to? Yeah I was fascinated first let's go through like what your top five were because it's interesting.

On defense, in terms of DVOA projections, it was bills, jets, cowboys, Niners, and then commanders. And the bills being on top kind of gets to something I've been noticing lately that there's this feeling that it's like, well, has their window closed? Or like, you know, is the rest of the league caught up and passed the bills? And I do feel like I'm taking crazy pills because they won 13 games a year ago. and they've had it stable a defense as anyone. So why do you think Bills and Jets especially came out on top when you're looking at it?

Because I saw also you have the Bills as your Super Bowl pick, which is weird that that's going to be, I feel like, not a trendy pick this year, the Bills getting to the Super Bowl finally. Yeah, the thing about the bill, one of the things about the Bills, and this also goes for the Cowboys, is that people overestimate in their minds the effect of one playoff game instead of thinking about, the much larger sample size of the entire regular season. And so, yeah, the bills, the last time we remember the bills, they were not playing well.

That was a loss. No question about it. But they had a phenomenal regular season. They've had a couple of phenomenal regular seasons. Their defense has been really good. And they've added a bunch of stuff to their defense, right? Like by getting guys back from injury and adding Leonard Floyd, like their defense should be better. They have a whole year of Tradavius White.

They get Micah Hyde back. There's just a lot of reason to believe that their defense can be even better this year than it was last year. Hmm. I looked at this list and right away, I have a very clear number one thing that jumped out to me. I'll say before I jump into that, though, that this almanac that you guys put it every year, like the writing, you know, I'll go read this in like taverns and restaurants and like I'll be cracking up at some of the stuff that's going on here. So I know that back in the day, the farmers, they wrote an almanac, a lot of data, not good writing, not intriguing. This is a different type of almanac. Pick it up.

But you have the Falcons as the 10th defense. And I know they did a lot this offseason, so you're weighing some of that. But I'd branch that off to say that when you go through your projected win totals, you have the Falcons as the third highest team in the NFC at 10.1 above Philadelphia and just below Sanford's. in Dallas. I mean, Greg and I have been on this falcons thing. Dan is now there, too. I think they're going to be so fun to watch. But what brought you to this place? What is the core of your belief? Because this was the thing that stood out to me more than anything else. Defense and schedule. So we think their defense is going to really improve. There's a variable in our system based on a combination of, you know, free agent additions, getting guys back from injury, and

drafting rookies high. Buffalo is actually number one in that variable because of of all the guys they're getting back from injury. But Atlanta is number two. Jesse Bates and Callais Campbell and Caden Ellis, and they just added a ton on defense. And then their schedule is remarkably easy. I know it sounds strange given that the NFC South was won by a team with a losing record last year.

But the Saints and Falcons schedules are so much easier than the other 30 teams that it is really likely that you're going to have two NFC teams, NFC South teams in the playoffs over teams that are better than them, but have harder schedules. Because if you look at the overall DVOA projections, the Saints and Falcons are projected to be average.

Like not good, just average, but the schedule is so easy. The hardest quarterback that either of those teams plays is Trevor Lawrence. Wow. And then the Falcons also have Aaron Rogers, which the Saints don't have because they play the Patriots instead of the Jets.

And as far as top quarterbacks in the league, that's it. Then I think the next hardest one they play is Kirk Cousins. Like, they just have really easy schedules. I don't like this because I was already toying around with putting them both in the playoffs, like in my mind. But now I feel like shots took a little bit of my, oh, that's kind of a good sandwich prop, Thunder here. I'm not happy with that.

But you do have them as top 10 defenses, both of them. So even separate to the schedule, that would be amazing because the Falcons had one of the worst defense in a league a year ago. Now I'm curious not to get off topic, but who's like kind of the inverse of that, a team that all your data really backs up as being a good team, but the schedule is so brutal that it's going to depress their value and hold them back. Maybe the Chargers, the Jets. The whole AFC East. The whole AFC East, the four hardest schedules in the league are the four AFC East teams. Miami, you have eight and a half wins projected Patriots are eight.

And I was a little surprised that neither of those teams were in your top 10 defensive projections. Because that's not taking into account schedule. That's looking at how effective they're going to be. When I came up, I tried to come up with what my five were before I looked at yours. Just curious how they'd be different. And I had 40, I had cowboys, 49ers, Bills, Patriots, dolphins. I had all three of the AFC teams in my top five, and you don't have the dolphins or the Patriots particularly close.

You have the Jets and the Bills at a whole other level to them. Yeah, the Patriots, the dolphins are interesting because the dolphins didn't have a lot of takeaways last year. So there's reason to believe that they're going to be better. But, you know, obviously no more credit for Jalen Ramsey, right? Sure. I think the thing about the dolphins, some of this has to do. with splits of stats in certain down in play situations that's sort of complicated to get to.

But for the dolphins, I think part of it is that mentally everyone wants to feel like Vic Fangio comes in and builds a top five defense. Yes. And historically, Vic Fangio does not come in and immediately build a top five defense. Most of the teams he's been with have taken some time to have their defenses develop into being top defenses. So I don't think that Fangio necessarily equals a top five defense on his own. And then a lot of this is just general regression from both of these teams,

like they were good on third short last year, and that tends to regress a little bit. And, you know, in general, an important analytic precept is defense is harder to project than offense. So, you know, the defensive projections are just not going to be as accurate as the offensive ones. And a lot of the teams are sort of grouped around the middle because we don't quite know what's going to happen with defenses. I think, you know, if you ask the average fan what the triumvirate of power is in the AFC, it's very clearly Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincinnati to most people.

I don't know if you're going to be having a delightful trip to Cincinnati anytime soon. This got on Greg and my radar as well that you have the Browns. Overall, as number one, the ninth bench defense and the Bengals down at 26. that threw me, but then also Cleveland is the third best team in the AFC with a 10.5 win total and Cincinnati at 10.2. I mean, I know you're not doing this for clicks and tweets and stuff, but like this is going to get on some people's radar, I would imagine. Yeah, notice that Cincinnati is better, but has a harder schedule. So Cincinnati does come out slightly better. But yeah, the fact that we have Cleveland

so high is going to surprise people. Defensively, we like what they've done with the additions to this soft season. People like the Darius Smith. I think their defense is going to really improve. Offensively, it's about sample size. You have three years of them having good offenses with bad quarterbacks, and then you have six bad games at the end of last year. And you have all of Deshawn's Watson's career of him being good, and then six bad games at the end of last year. So what means more? All of that sample of Kevin Stefansky running a good offense and Deshaun Watson running a good offense, or those six games. I mean, we're going to bet that it's the larger sample that tells you more about how good

Cleveland is. And then we have Cincinnati. They lost a lot of talent in their secondary. So we do have them declining a little bit on defense. And that's what puts Cleveland slightly ahead of them in wins, although it's not like Cincinnati's not a major Super Bowl contender. They have our number two projection on offense. that's surprising but you still have

you have them as like one of the five teams that have a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense Cleveland yeah we have Cleveland right on the edge of the top 10 in both offense Is that because Jim Schwartz used to blurb your football outsider's almanac back in like 2005 that was a good pop for you though early on

that you got a real big football guy it would always be like Bill Simmons maybe Peter King I feel like But it would always be Schwartz. It would always be Jim Schwartz's quote on the front of the book. That would be like, these guys really know what they're talking about. You know what Greg is going for here.

Greg wants to blurb at some point in the near future. Oh, we'll take it. Oh, I'll take it happily. Yeah, we counted him as a new defensive coordinator the way we normally do with new defensive coordinators. It is a new scheme they're learning. And all other things being equal, teams take a little bit of a step back when they have to learn a new scheme. But, of course, all things aren't equal because of the talent that they add.

in the offseason and, you know, other statistical trends. Seahawks, you added seventh on defense. You wrote to me, you put your top 12 in an order very nicely for me, and you thought that was the biggest surprise of your top 10. Yeah, again, this is another one where they added talent. They're the number three in the added talent variable because they drafted the cornerback so high and then getting Bobby Wagner back and then getting Dremont Jones. Sneaky good offseason, you're right.

the defensive projection that I like if you ask me subjectively I think we're too low on the Seattle offense and too high on the Seattle defense and probably right about them overall I get what what you're doing with Minnesota's defense they are dead last at 32 um I do think Brian Flores could get them a little bit of a boost but you know personnel wise it's a bit of an apocalypse but overall I mean I kind of love what you did with the with the Vikings because this will be another minor earthquake up in that part of the country. You have them at 6.4 wins. So you're basically saying all these, what happened last year was ultimately a massive mirage in terms of the, yes. They were 27th in DVOA overall, despite being 13 and 4. It was like the weirdest season of all

time. So like all advanced stats said the Vikings were overrated, but we may have had them lower than anybody. And then they went out and lost talent. right? No more Thielen. No more Zadariah Smith. No more Patrick Peterson. So, you know, Dalvin Cook also. Kendrick. So, yeah, I mean, I just don't think Minnesota is going to be very good. And I don't think they think they're going to be that good because I think that Adolfo Mensa ran the offseason as if they're rebuilding. Right. He ran a rebuilding offseason. I think he saw the analytics and said, we're not a 13 and 14 trying to get to the Super Bowl. We're a rebuilding team. We're going to have a rebuilding offseason. And we talked about in our news before we had you on, Aaron,

they're keeping their options open with cousins because I think they're using this as a big evaluation year, not we're going for this or we have the core in place already. Over in the NFC West, I get it. I get you in terms of win projections. You have the Rams at 5.8, Arizona also at 5.8. And on the defensive side, you have the Rams 30th. And I think it's kind of hard to wrap your head around that a defense that has Aaron Donald ostensibly still in or near the peak of his game anchoring a defense that could be this bad.

But I would imagine for the exercise and the projections you do, they are a unique case because they just have so many new faces there and they're just kind of starting from scratch. Yeah, I was going to say, okay, Aaron Donald, name another defender on the ramp. You guys can do it, of course, right? you guys know, hey, John Johnson just signed there, which isn't incorporated in this because that happened after we finished the book. No, it's a bad sign. I saw on their poster, Jordan Fuller was on their poster, who's like a fourth year safety for fans out there, you know, and that he's a defensive captain.

Like, that's a pretty big steep fall from Aaron Donald to Jordan Fuller. Their secondary is almost all day three draft picks. And, you know, other than Fuller not established really players, there's like one. linebacker, Ernest Jones. Like, there really isn't a second off ball linebacker. Like, I don't know what they're going to do when they need to play nickel or base. It's unusual to see the Ravens down as the 20th defense in the NFL. Yeah, that's surprising.

Yeah, there's a little regression there. You know, high turnovers last year. Their defense getting a lot younger this year than it was last year. The system doesn't really like that that much. They were particularly good on third downs last year, so it sees that. regressing a little bit. I mean, we like the Ravens overall. The thing that people forget about the Ravens is you can always pencil them in for if not the best special teams in the league, close to the best special teams in the league. It's like this hidden little bump that they get

when you're thinking about what they're going to do this year. Like special teams are impossible to predict, except the Ravens, you know they're going to be doing. For a while, it was the Patriots. Yeah, that's over. That's over after last year. God, they were terrible. off a cliff. I do think the Ravens defense is going to be better, but I'm basing it on subjective things, which is I think their defense took a little bit to catch on last year under the new coordinator McDonald. And then I'm buying like little camp reports where it's like Michael Pierce is like a once in every three year player, but he sounds like he's looking pretty awesome this year. I think some of their young players like Madibuque, Oway, OJabo, like a lot of guys

who haven't quite produced at the NFL level, a full season of Roquan Smith and Queen together, which seemed like a great combination late last year. There's questions in the secondary. But they're a team to me that, and you said a defense is hard to predict that, like, if you told me they're a top five defense this year, I wouldn't be totally shocked. I feel like they have a chance at doing that and really surprised. I don't think I would be totally shocked. You're right.

The edge rushers, right? Like part of it is they haven't had an really good edge rush for a couple of years. and they've depended on, like, rental veterans like Justin Houston. If those guys get it together and you know that they have talent, Jabo and Odafeo, like, yeah, they could be a much better defense than we're projecting. Sure, absolutely. Another team that you have falling off a cliff after an inspiring campaign a year ago in New York, the Giants, the G-Men. Yeah, they were the mini Vikings, basically. Were you about, you should might as well tee up Aaron do the talk about it.

Talk about it. No, I thought I emphasized that G-Men and then just, like, leave it to you. Talk about the G-Men. Talk about it. Yeah, I mean, they were a little overrated last year. I think Daibold did an amazing job and ran a great offense. Their defense was meh, and they won games they, you know, were very close in, and their overall numbers weren't great.

But the thing is, they're sort of, hey, here's a team that's having kind of a lucky year was so overshadowed by the Vikings having, having like, They were like the poor man's Vikings, you're right. Years ever that, you know, and then the two teams faced each other in the playoffs, which was, you know, it was like Battle of the network frauds, which the Giants won. They were better in our numbers over the course of the season. But kind of messed up the NFC playoffs a little bit because we got the fraud game and then he had the Eagles dismantling the fraud that won the next week. We don't need all those frauds. Right.

It's good that the Eagles played so well in the Super Bowl. I know they lost, but it was a classic. Because before that, it was like, no team has ever had such a buy to the Super Bowl. If the story is that the Giants play better than this, because Day Bowl coaches the heck out of them, I will buy it. Like, I think Day Bowl was a great coach last year. And it's hard, you know, it's hard to control for that in a stat analysis system. Right. They coached up that defense.

I'm with you. On paper, they coached up their defense to get it to even respectable last year. And in the back end, it's like, Deonté, Banks is getting smoked at practice reportedly. Basically, linebacker in secondary is trouble. But they're looking at it like our lines are pretty good. And if you have good lines, that's a good base to build from. And we might have a chance.

Yeah, you need a good secondary too. Right. I don't see it with them. I think they're a solid fourth for me. Let's end it this way, Aaron, because this is in some ways the most vital question in your business and all of sports. what do you have to say to the one thing you can't measure is heart mafia I mean you measure heart because if a guy's heart makes him play better than his muscles

would make him play it's going to come out in his performance the heart is a muscle heart will be in the numbers the heart shows up in the numbers what you can't measure is whether guys get along in the locker room you can't measure coaches, you know, making their players play better through inspiration, that kind of stuff you can't measure. But I mean, I feel like, you know, if a player wants it more, then you're going to see it in his numbers because he's going to do it more. Asking for a friend, last question, last last question, is momentum real?

No. Oh. I mean, you knew that. Well, you know, we have a buddy, Patrick Claibon, who's. I'm actually doing him a favor. I thought that it would align. I felt we would go that way with, I know, I know how much players and coaches feel it, but you can't ever define it in such a way that's actually testable.

I mean, I'm on that Clayvon. Less in football anyway, because when the defense does something, the offense comes on, like completely different players come on the field after the offense does something or the defense does something. So it's not even like, you know, in basketball, where you know you let up a 10-0 run and then you're still on the court like in football completely different players are suddenly on the field yeah you you just like to agree with Claibon and everything Greg I don't believe you I bet we could find a hundred instances on this podcast where you talk about momentum swinging no I think it's a little Eric I have a project

for you this week oh a big project I think it's a little more nuanced but if you have to go just black and white yes no then it's basically no because it's it's a moving here's the deal with Aaron Chats. He's over with the FTN Fantasy crowd and his football almanac is as good as ever. Where can people get it? Get that plug in. So the PDF version you can get at FtNFantasy.com. Look for the picture of Patrick Mahones. He's on the cover of the book. Smart. There's a physical copy also. It's currently in review by Amazon, but within the next day or two, that should be available as well on Amazon. So physical book on Amazon, PDF at FtNFantasy.com. Under review. Yes. Someone's got to read

the whole thing in like one day. There's a lot going on here. It's dense. You have to make sure our fonts look right. Right. It's like Bezos is up in his office. He's like, actually momentum is real. I'm going to need you to. It's a big red stamp like denied. They're going over on the commanders. That's so exciting. There you go. Aaron Chats, thank you for the time. You got it. Thanks, Aaron. There you go. Greg, I just think you're saying this because I know that's the smart football guy. I've always believed that. I just don't like getting in the same arguments over and over on this podcast.

But back in the day, if you went back to like 2013, we were in those arguments. I don't know. I mean, I'm not that surprised. I'm not that surprised that Greg takes the more robotic Earth approach to this topic. But, you know, I kind of disagree entirely. I don't like the battle against science because science, usually wins out. You can't win verbally.

But there is, there's something beaten in here, okay? Yeah, go talk to the real players who play. And there's emotion that drives not just sports, but the human race and really all animals. Do you ever feel momentum when you were a teenage tennis player, Greg? Well, that's a one-on-one sport. How about when you did well with-removing a lot of the variables when it's a one-on-one sport?

It's the scientist over here now. So it exists or it doesn't exist. What about the girls in high school? When you got on that nice run you were on. And you had the girlfriend after girlfriend and then things slowed down a little bit like college and post college. That was momentum, my friend. That's confidence. It was born out of the momentum of one girl.

We're talking about in a football game, first of all. Greg, just like leaving them behind. Oh, I'm bored of you. First period. That's my first period girl. I got my fourth period girl. I got my seventh period girl. Lunch time?

Speaking of hearts, you didn't care about their hearts. I cared a lot. That's why I think I was working out because it's like when people talk about high school and they're like, oh, yeah, this one girl I had a bigger, like, didn't you have a crush on like 30 girls in high school all the time? Wasn't it always changing? Well, there were tears. And then there was like many at once because there's so many. There was the crush that was like the top tier that everyone loves. Right. So you get rejected. Like some of them, they feel your vibe and you're getting smacked back. You could lock in on one, which is a mistake. That's what you learned back in high school.

You lock in a one and you don't see anything else. Right. There's the unattainable crush that you might have. Then there's the one that you think is attainable. Yeah, there are different levels of it. Right. I think I'm such a lover, you know, not a robot. That it was just, it was just the vibes were going out to many people.

And then you're bound to, you're bound to. We should just change the subjects. I don't think we're going to agree on this one. I think you were cold and emotionless in high school and you just, you just had notches on your bedposts rather than caring about people. Well, it's tough to it to watch. watch tough to see and i was at the taylor swift show which was an incredible um incredible scene by the way and i even as a taylor swift fan i am not near the level of um the the true swifties so i just kind of watched it from a distance and it is a very cool vibe i don't have any

daughters Greg you do have a daughter it was so cool to see i have a daughter you do no i mean you age 18 she kind of started over that relationship and you guys are working through it. It was so great to see the vibe in SoFi Stadium of this is an outdated term, the girl power, but it was just like this great communal experience of everyone, like, loving this woman who

puts out all this positive energy and is such a great role model. I was, like, as a dad, I was like, this would be a concert, I would make sure to take my daughter to show the power of... That's great. Did we ever find out who won that... What did she didn't like that raffle? Then

I wouldn't take her. I guess I would take her to you know something else the Beyonce show I wanted to hear about your experience so I'm glad you you told who I who won this raffle by the way did we ever get any we never got any info on that did you see any like known corpus by the way wow really yes wow speaking of Claybone we were talking he was he had came up with an idea to go sit up on the roof of our building and just see what you could hear because I and you can hear charges Rams games really well so it's like we heard the show on the top of the parking we left the work on Thursday and I could hear the sound check.

I mean, that sound quality is not great from there, but it's something. Yeah, it was great and an insane production. Like, I don't know how she does it. I have no idea how she's doing it night after night. All right. Anything else?

Oh, I have one thing. Developing news. Boots on the ground We mentioned the Rams Jordan Roderick who covers that team so well she's been all over the story helping figure out

we don't call t-shirt gate because we don't use gate around here but what is who's responsible for you know that shirt let's flash that up again for the YouTube audience mentally and physically tough players who play smart and love to compete

but there's and spelled out and then there's an amber sand. Oh, disaster. Here's what Jordan had to tell me because we've been kind of back and forth all week on it. According to Jordan, both are Sean McVeigh quotes. Model the Way, which is the other shirt we saw,

as a reminder to him and some of the vets to walk the walk this year and get back to teaching where he's admitted he's gotten away from, he's admitted he got away from living his other slogans, we not me, et cetera, et cetera, last season. Now, the shirt in question, this was very interesting. According to Jordan, and this isn't hard reporting, like this is just based on conversation she's had,

and I just want to make that very clear. It's presented more as a leading theory gathered from whispers around camp, okay? That the shirt and the way it's written, or is it syntax? Sure. I mean, even just choosing to put all those words on the shirt. I'm counting them now.

I think there's 12 words. It's a lot of words. No commas. Mixed use of Amber Sands. That's the way Sean McVeigh texts on his phone. And the running theory, according to Jordan, and this is not hard reporting, but just formulated on conversations, is he texted whoever the assistant was to make the shirt. and of course said that assistant, you know, would not dare to deviate from the word of the initial text from their boss.

They just basically cut and pasted it onto the t-shirt design, and that's how you end up with this situation. I love it. This is an A-plus work by Jordan, not surprisingly. I think a more empowered assistant. You're assuming the assistant is even caught by the and the ampersand. Maybe that's not in their world. But if you were, you might want to go back to McVeigh and say, I'm here to make you look good. nerds out there who are, you know, grammatical nerds, are going to look at the and the ampersand and be thrown by it. Probably not all your players, some, but like, you know, some of them are also nerd. What if it was a test by McVeigh to see if said assistant would confront him or approach him?

Right. And it's being used. I mean, if I'm not a assistant, I'm not sleeping one. A yes man or woman. It's not about the assistant. It's about that terrible text because you can fix the and the and there's no ampersand. And it's still a mouthful that you don't want on a t-shirt. it's a terrible t-shirt.

So it's all on McVeigh. And I think if he wants to live, you know, another slogan, like how about take some responsibility, stand up at the podium and say, that's on me. I didn't understand the game I was playing. We're not far from Rams, Kim. Maybe we've got to get up there and ask the question. I didn't understand the t-shirt game.

And I made a mistake because I think it's ultimately. Turn on the air conditioning. Get the car going, Eric. We got a road trip. Also, have you ever done an ambassand on text? Do you have to do like the ship down and find it? I've done it multiple times. I mean, that's something he sought out the Amberset in there.

Well, yeah. I think there's just, the questions become deeper and they become more disturbing. Sean McVeigh being an all-caps texter is the least surprising news of the day. He's like, he's like Reinbold, our friend at Sky on Twitter. Just like all caps, all that. I love that, though. He gets the pass. All right, that's it.

We'll be back Thursday with another show. Make sure you check that. out and anything else mark no i think this was just an absolute delight and a joy um thank you to aaron shats thank you to dan thank you to greg thank you to eric behind the glass thank you to everyone else behind the glass goodbye how about parker and randy parker either call This is an I-heart podcast.