NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Over/Unders with Mina Kimes and Kevin Clark

Episode Date: August 22, 2024

Gregg Rosenthal is joined by ESPN's Mina Kimes and Kevin Clark to take a look at this year's NFL win totals and each pick their  favorite four for the 2024 season. Before the over/unders, Gregg, Mina..., and Kevin react to Bo Nix being names the starting quarterback for the Broncos (2:31). The rest of the show is dedicated to wins, telling you which teams will go over their win total or finish short of the number (7:00).NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.
Starting point is 00:00:25 It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And for the first time on NFL Daily, Kevin Clark, welcome to the show, guys. What's going on? Why are you laughing right off the bat? I think I might need to change the intro music if both you and Colleen are just, like, laughing that it sounds like a war march. I thought I heard like another song. That's why I was like, oh, me too.
Starting point is 00:01:20 Me too. I thought somebody was playing weird music, like, from an unspecified. It felt like oldies, but it didn't feel like it was most specific decade. Yeah. We're off to a fly and start here. Thank you, Kevin, for joining us from your mother-in-law's house. And thank you, Mina. I've been excited about this show for weeks here.
Starting point is 00:01:43 We've done this exercise over unders for a couple of years. I'll get into it more in a minute. But I just wanted to have two of the brightest minds over at ESPN to bounce off ideas from. I want to be clear. I was also smiling because of the visual of Kevin Clark, who has a new haircut, is wearing what appears to be a blazer in his mother-in-law's house, looking a lot like, you know, during COVID when, like, public science professors would go on CNN for the first time ever. I do. I do. I do know what that looks like. Pneumologist. I think I said that wrong. Okay, a couple things about it. Number one is I'm here because we're doing construction to our house and it's a little more involved than we think. thought, and so I had to evacuate kind of quickly. But the most important thing is, like,
Starting point is 00:02:29 evacuate. I was trying to think of, like, the most mother-in-law thing that could be within reach. This is her desk. It's a printout, of course, of the electoral college. I don't know why that's here. Like, they're not, like, super
Starting point is 00:02:47 politically involved, by any means, it's just a map of electoral college. You just got to know what the path is, I guess. It's time. It's time to start. studying those numbers and figuring out it's it's that week and yes i do appreciate the blazer you class in this up and the new haircut um i'm excited to get to the overrunners we'll get to that in a second i did want to just hit off the top we had some news uh pop out on wednesday afternoon that bo necks is the official starting quarterback the broncos we don't need to go too crazy because we've been
Starting point is 00:03:18 assuming this year, on NFL Daily, Mina, on a scale, let's say, of preseason performances that are either misleading or not, starting with, let's say, Kenny Pickett's 2023 is on one end of the continuum, and Russell Wilson's rookie preseason kind of auguring, like, what was a great, great career. Where do you see Bo Nix's preseason? I'm going to say somewhere in the middle We talked about this on my show a little bit The Meantime Show featuring Letty And I was more optimistic than Ben Solek
Starting point is 00:03:59 Who is my guest Who by the way called Bo Nix a young man They're like the same age When you said he was 24 that really hit me Anyways, the reason I'm more optimistic about it Is because I think Bo Nix in Sean Peyton's offense And I know that sounds like a big You know like I'm hedging here
Starting point is 00:04:16 But I don't think it's hedging because we are going to see him in Sean Payton's offense. And I think what's been become very clear from the preseason, yes, against backups. And yes, it's very different for the regular season for a litany of reasons in a ways that tend to favor efficient quarterbacks who can get the ball quickly. I think Payton's going to get the most out of him. And so I think it, I don't think like the ceiling is incredibly high with this offense, Kevin. But I actually think the floor is maybe higher than I thought going into the season. He's the most accurate passer in history of college football. that means something and that means something to
Starting point is 00:04:48 Sean Peyton and Sean Peyton loves him Jeff Schwartz was on my show speaking of guests talking about the Broncos and he said the most encouraging thing about Bo Nix is the offense is tailored towards him Sean Payton clearly had a plan of what it was supposed to look like Knicks to me when he mentioned 24 year olds
Starting point is 00:05:04 is one of the first of what's going to be the new normal in the draft from now on James Daniels in his bucket as well of these elder millennial quarter who they're not they're not millennial learn to play football well i mean they they learn to play football over five years or six years in some cases they use the transfer portal and they played
Starting point is 00:05:30 a ton of football both nicks through like 1200 more passes than j jay mccarthy at the college level like he basically played like i know the age difference such but like the football education difference is so significant and i talked to david pritchard who was uh who is jaden daniel's coach and he was saying like we know we can see so much tape in different offenses and we can see that they're getting this data in their head and they're clocking it and they're getting better like with every rep and you're not you don't see that necessarily with drake may because he was only there for three years and in one school under one head coach j j jim mccarthy's same situation bo necks has like had a professional career already and it's here and so like the fact
Starting point is 00:06:08 the floor is this high is is not a surprise and i think there's going to be a lot of early success A couple of these teams are my big boards. I don't want to get too deep into it. I know they're over under five and a half for the Broncos. That is, that's interesting. As Sean, as down as I am on Sean Payton's long-term success in Denver, five and a half for a Sean Payton team in year two of his program. I completely agree.
Starting point is 00:06:33 I completely agree. But I'm just saying there's going to be this army of guys. They were six first round quarterbacks last year. Three of them were direct results of the transfer portal. And that's not even counting K.O. Boyums. Like, we're going to see, like, way more Bo Nix is. And those guys are going to have success, especially with Sean Payton. Yeah, they have a little extra year because, you know, the COVID year that's finally
Starting point is 00:06:56 flushed through. But I want to see how high is floors. I don't know if I'm skeptical, but I want to see. I'm very excited about that week one Seahawks Broncos game. We talked about, like, what games are you putting on if you had the four game multi-view? That's a late afternoon game. But, like, I'm very into that just because everything is weird. and new in Seahawks Broncos
Starting point is 00:07:17 week one. All right, we'll see if either of those teams comes up. And yes, Mena Kimes from NFL Live, the Mina Kimes show featuring Lenny, one of the best out there, and Kevin Clark from This Is Football and all the ESPN programs lately, around the horn, and they're sneaking you on NFL
Starting point is 00:07:35 Live. It's great. I wanted to have you guys on. This is a show near and dear to my heart because I've done really well at it the last two years, and we just need, to see if I can keep that going. Who was your biggest hit the last two years? Like, who was the one he just nailed?
Starting point is 00:07:51 Well, I'm 7 and 0 through the two years. We did, I know. That's what I mean. That's crazy. I was surprised and went back and checked. Mina, you went two and one two years ago. So you acquitted yourself well. We did three, two years ago.
Starting point is 00:08:04 Did four last year. It's a little crazy. Under Giants and I can't even remember under Giants and Bears. I think over Chiefs when they, going into 2022, when they won the Super Bowl in one, you know, a million games. That was easy. A lot of been safe.
Starting point is 00:08:18 Eagles over, I think, in 22 as well. It doesn't matter. I don't need to go over that. But I may have thought way too much about this and really struggled to decide who are my last teams because I like it so much. So why don't we start out? It's going to be draft style. Basically, we can each pick the over-unders of any team, an over or an under.
Starting point is 00:08:37 But once someone else takes that, you can't take that. So we'll just go. We won't do a snake draft style. We'll start with Kevin. Because I think, like, he's a newcomer. Oh, my gosh. He's playing hurt with that sport go down. With a random blazer and a map of electoral college.
Starting point is 00:08:54 Let's start with Kevin. Then we'll go to Mena. I have a question. Can we conceivably, if someone picks X team over, can we draft X team under? Yes. Yes, you can. That would be fun. That is a nice.
Starting point is 00:09:06 I would love a challenge match. I'm probably not going to do that. I don't think that's going to happen. But I just want to make sure that that little jiu-jitsu is on the men. you all right so i'm looking on my big board here it's deep it's a deep board it's this is a good draft but i don't know if it's necessarily top heavy no what's funny it's like this is why vegas makes all the money every time i'm like oh i really love this team i'm gonna look and oh well Vegas peg this fairly like this is this is what we're gonna yeah so there's one team
Starting point is 00:09:36 i'm real high on that i feel like they're their total is low it's a team meena you know well it's the Los Angeles Rams and it's eight and a half I think and I've gone over like Stephen Ruiz like the Aaron Donald thing is going to be so significant blah blah blah the defense is going to get it's going to be fine and the offense is developing into a juggernaut I really do believe this um I was going through the uh the NFL has a new product uh NFL plus pro I think it's called and I was going through it this morning I got access to it and I was looking at all the open numbers. Who has the most separation under play action?
Starting point is 00:10:17 Well, it's Cooper Cup. Sean McVeigh gets everybody open all the time. Like, he's number one in all of those things. And there's a reason for that. Stafford, I'm not worried about his health. I think this is an NFC contender. And I think of that group, of that tier A, they're the only one with the total that low.
Starting point is 00:10:37 Yeah, the schedule, I think, for the NFC West, artificially, not even artificially, but it just depressed all their numbers. And you kind of find that going into the year, just which division has tough out of schedule, out of division schedules. And you're like, oh, why is that team solo? Why are all these teams still low? And so I think that's part of it. They weren't on my long list. And maybe they should be, because you're right. If Stafford's healthy, I feel pretty good about that number. For some reason, even though he's already back at practice, just that team's going to, would collapse, I think, without Stafford, even with Jimmy And that worries me enough that they wouldn't have.
Starting point is 00:11:11 It's true of everybody. That's fair. But I'm, like, more worried about staffer. Anybody we're picking to go over would collapse if they didn't have a certain It's true of everybody. But I think the Rams are more dependent on their offense being elite than some other teams because the defense is so young up front. So young.
Starting point is 00:11:29 But I'm the best player of all the time. I do think there's a floor with the young guys because I think that the verse and Fis being the thing that we've talked about Jordan R. We've reported that they knew they couldn't replace Aaron. Donald, so they did it, I swear to get like... I don't dislike it. I'm just saying, I think the standard thing is what scares me, too. The injuries is really the only thing that scares me
Starting point is 00:11:48 with the Rams. Yes, and like, so literally they went out and they said, we can't replace Aaron Donald, but we can replace them an aggregate. And so they drafted two Florida State guys, they thought that the chemistry immediately would be, would help them acclimate very quickly. Then they go out and they draft Cam Kitchens from Miami, who I believe
Starting point is 00:12:04 is going to start, right? Like, wasn't that the That was the rumor over the weed. I don't know if he's He didn't dress the last preseason game, which some of the beats took as a signal that he was, at least, going to get a lot of playing time. I'll say that. He's definitely going to play. And I really like the additions. I mean, you mentioned Camp Kinsons.
Starting point is 00:12:20 I love the Cam Carls signing at safety. A lot of cams back there. I don't dislike this pick at all. I just, that's my only concern with the Rams is not just injuries to staff or potentially. You're hearing some injuries on the offensive line. Havenstein, Cups, obviously coming off the injury. It's an offense that when everyone. healthy, I think could be the literally best offense in the entire NFL. So I am very high on
Starting point is 00:12:46 this team too, but that is the concern. How was Sean McVeigh in the booth in like your life? What was that experience like for you? It was brief. It was brief. Wow. Yeah. Also, his headset wasn't working, so I had to give him my headset. So I actually didn't hear. Oh, no. Yeah, I was a, you know, I'm a team player. All right, Mina, you go with the number two overall pick. Here we go. Um, okay, this is boring because we talked about it, but I, I think Brock was five and a half is probably the best. Ooh, first one off the board. Well, it's a team that had seven Pythagorean wins last year, and I think upgraded at
Starting point is 00:13:24 quarterback, frankly, I think this version of us, whatever you think about Bo Nix and his ceiling, and that is a totally fair to debate, I'm telling, I think the floor that he gives you and that this offense is going to give you with a minute is better than what we saw last year was a defense that was a train wreck to begin the season, pulled things together, still finished like 30th in DVOA because of how bad they were at the beginning of the season. Hard to think they're going to be worse. Hopefully you get a full healthy season out of Baron Browning. I just think, I just don't see Peyton losing or winning fewer than six games two years in a row. I just don't see it. And yeah, like our producer Eric
Starting point is 00:14:02 threw up the overunders for the entire division. If you're watching on YouTube, and yeah, it's one of the worst divisions in the league. It's weird to me that they're a game below the Raiders and three below the chargers. Like that is a huge gap. The case against it would be, you know, Bo Nix, not very talented, skill position group on paper
Starting point is 00:14:22 among the league's worst. I mean, you can make a case for Javante Williams and some of the secondary receivers stepping up, but it's not that talented. And then defense, where's the strength? You know, where, like, what are you excited about? have a number of pass rushers, but no one that gets you really, uh, juiced up and the secondary after Sartan, I was trying to think of a potential Marshawn Latimore landing spot, just because
Starting point is 00:14:49 just on my radar that he left the first practice of training camp with like an injury and no one said anything about it ever since. And this was a, an issue between the team before. And maybe he is actually hurt, uh, and he has a hip injury, which is very concerning for them. Or maybe there's just, been bad vibes there and more going on and i and i do wonder if the broncos could certainly use a marsh on latimore but there's a million teams that could all right i'm going to go third pick i'm going to go back to i shouldn't be doing this uh eric put up my my picks from a year ago to me and over on the bills was one of them and you know they barely snuck that out uh by streaking at the end you asked what was my best pick uh going under on the panthers last year that was pretty strong um
Starting point is 00:15:36 I'm going over on the bills again. Nine and a half. Sometimes I think you shouldn't overthink these. Just look at their win total in the last five years. 10, 13, 11, 13, and then 11 last year. So that was starting in the Josh Allen first playoff season. Their point differential is always over 125. They've been top six in offensive points, four straight years.
Starting point is 00:16:03 Top four in defense, four straight years. They are objectively, by any measure, one of the best teams consistently in the NFL. So my main thing is kind of why not? I know the schedule is pretty tough in that division in and out of division. But if we're doing this all just because Stefan Diggs isn't there, like, yeah, you can come up with some ways they've gotten worse over the last year. But they also have the best offensive line maybe of the Sean McDermin era. They might have the best running game. They've developed their cornerbacks pretty well.
Starting point is 00:16:33 Christian Benford is a real player. they like, we'll see, but every, every preseason, they say Caiy Elam looks terrible and is not going to ever win the job. And they're right. And then this preseason, they're saying he looks pretty good, that he looks good. Greg Rousseau's popping up. So I get the strength of schedule is why their number is so low. But to me, Sean McDermott's one of the coaches that gives you a schematic advantage, Kevin, in some sort of way. And that's a very consistent defense. And so I'm not overthinking. I'm going overbills again. This is probably the last time or the first time
Starting point is 00:17:06 they've been this low in the McDermott era. I completely agree with you. And I believe McDermott has exceeded his win total in every single season. I believe that I saw that stuff the other day, which would track, frankly. I talked to Joe Brady, their new OC or their vaguely new OC. This is his first
Starting point is 00:17:22 training camp is OC in Pittsburgh a couple weeks ago. And I said, what are you doing? Like, what's keeping you up in night? And he was like, we want to be able to win every single way. Like, we want to be able to have like the James Cookway against Dallas, we want to be able to have Josh Allen. They're not trying to change Josh Allen, but they're just trying to say like, all right, we need to be so flexible that we can win any sort of game. And I really do think that's possible. And I also think it's just
Starting point is 00:17:45 because of the singular talent of Josh Allen. Like Josh Allen, we did this exercise on my show last week. Like, there were what? I think there are six quarterbacks who are actually worth the money who deliver value more than what they take away with the $40 million a year. that you're paying them. I think there's about six. I think this, and I don't like, you can go through it
Starting point is 00:18:08 and you can argue about some of those guys, but I think there's six where the team was like, we would actually pay. Like, we probably shouldn't say this publicly, Mina, but we've talked about our nannies before.
Starting point is 00:18:17 And we've said that if our nannies, if our nannies stuck us up. This is relatable. People really like hearing this stuff. And we're like, our child care professionals were like, we want more money.
Starting point is 00:18:30 We would be like, I there's nothing I can do you are so good at your job I'm going to give you more money I did the thought of not being of not having you in the house is such a nightmare that I can't conceive of it here's well there are other nannies and what if that nanny is an NFL daily listener I I'm almost insulted that you just assume I haven't made that sort of breakthrough I'm just saying that that's that's a franchise quarterback we will pay any amount of money Josh Allen is one of the five or six guys where if it's Anytime they want to renegotiate, they're going to be like, yeah, that sounds good, brother. I was thinking about my nanny coming home today after her drive and saying she wants a raise. And also, by the way, are you sure about that Broncos pass brush? Um, okay. Uh, yeah. I'm, I'm very high on the bills.
Starting point is 00:19:20 Uh, I had them in both my top 10 offenses and defenses. The Matt Milano injury dimmed my optimism a little bit. I am worried about the linebacker position with this team just because the spot. with those linebackers and safeties is so young. However, I think Josh Allen papers over so much. Nine and a half. For somebody in I thought it was nine and a half, I would take the over too, so I'm with you.
Starting point is 00:19:44 Yeah, one under the jets there. And yeah, that's where I'm counting on McDermott's schematic advantage with just like he can get those linebackers to play at a good enough level. Maybe it might be Dorian Williams from Tulane. And the whole thing about the skill position guys, they have enough plus skill position players to me. Shakir, Knox, Kincaid, Cook, like, all those guys are plus players. Maybe Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel get to be that way.
Starting point is 00:20:09 Ray Davis, a little funky. All right, let's go with your second pick, Kevin. I swear to God, a fax machine just went off in this room. That's exciting. You've traveled back in time. Is it a printed out poll? Is it unskewed? I mean, I don't even know.
Starting point is 00:20:28 Nothing seems to even be in there, just wanted to make noise to let us know that it was here. So there was a fact machine in here. We're going to place some other stuff as well. This is tremendous. Okay, so this was actually lower on my big board. And then I'm looking at my big board and I'm like, man, this is calling out to me. And I'm going to regret not calling this ahead of time. By sharp analytics strength of schedule, they have a harder than normal schedule.
Starting point is 00:20:55 They have one of the grimest, most outwardly hostile quarterback situations in the league. they have a bunch of unhappy people and a vaguely new coach the Las Vegas Raiders are going to lose a lot more games than the six and a half that is currently given to them by and the defense is going to be fine even as I guess it's been more aggressive and obviously they've got a floor of talent there
Starting point is 00:21:20 Christian Wilkins is very good Max Crosby's very good this is going to be a very bad team guys this is going to be a very bad team The gardener Minchua was named starting quarterback and all the everybody around the team was like yeah he wasn't very good what happened and in Toronto Pierce
Starting point is 00:21:37 the entire camp was like we're waiting for somebody to grab that job and just nobody did it and he was named two weeks before the season and started by default when that happens I have to go under you check that facts because it might be from an old NFL fan telling you Minchu has the it factor
Starting point is 00:21:54 which is something I've been in recent days I stayed away from this one because I'm scared of the defense but I agree with everything you said you called it a hostile quarterback competition it is hostile to my eyes I would describe it as depressing and it's depressing because I actually really like I like kind of everything else going on with this team Greg
Starting point is 00:22:17 and that's what bugs me out I did the thing where I did your AFC West preview and I finished it and I was like oh I was that guy that just was way too optimistic about everyone, just because it was fun to be. It was August. I went to Raiders camp and I, like, got convinced that their defense is going to be truly special. Then again, they were, you know, going against Aiden O'Connell and Gardner Minchu in practice. And you're right. Antonio Pierce said after the game, like, it would have been nice if someone played well in this game. And then the next day, he names Minchin. He didn't win because of last night is how he put it.
Starting point is 00:22:52 Right. But they do have potentially, they have continuity on the offense. line they have potentially an average maybe even above average depending on how you squint at it offensive line and a pretty decent skill players so and a good defense so that maybe six and a half that feels about right
Starting point is 00:23:11 in the AFC West does Devante Adams want to be there right that could be things could go off the tracks and they could trade you know him at some point but it would be surprising doesn't feel like you really wants to be there all right you go with your second buddy um okay
Starting point is 00:23:27 Okay, I'm saying the division, similar lines. Greg, you will not be surprised by this one. Oh, no. Chargers are not winning more than eight and a half games. I knew you were taking chargers under. I'm sorry. That is not a good football team. It is a great quarterback.
Starting point is 00:23:42 Obviously, Jim Harbaugh is a good coach. I'm excited about the Jesse Minter hire. I don't care. I have looked at that depth chart, stared at it, tried to figure out how you get to nine wins. I don't see it. skill player group is a real problem and you know I do the preseason they just play the charger so you know usually it's backup so you got to like hedge their starters were on there
Starting point is 00:24:04 guys and I'm telling you outside of Herbert obviously it's it's not it's not a good situation they need the defense to be good to have a chance to be excellent meaning I have a friendly disagreement if the charges finished in the top 20 in DVOA I win that on defense. I am a little worried that Joey Bosa's missing all of training camp and he might play week one
Starting point is 00:24:33 and absolutely no one has talked about that. He's got a wrist injury. Derwin James has been out lately. There's a lot of projection. I usually overrate the chargers. This is one of those where the offseason is so long that now when I look, it was very hard
Starting point is 00:24:48 when I'm making this long list because Oh my God. You're already backing off of it. I feel it. I know. Like, the off season is so long. Like, you make the case and then you make the case again. By this point in the scene, I can see both sides.
Starting point is 00:25:01 I'm not backing off the defense. I feel good about that they could be a top 20 DVO defense. But I am with you under eight and a half. Feels pretty good. The only thing that makes me feel a little better, other than it's just Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert. And Justin Herbert is back on the field. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:25:16 Is everyone suddenly thinks it feels like the Chargers are one of the worst teams in the NFL, but that number is crazy high. It's a little weird. Not everyone that it's eight and a half. Like, nine wins? The one thing, I have two things on that. Number one, I think the Chargers are going to be better than you think. They have the second easiest schedule in the NFL, according to the Vegas.
Starting point is 00:25:35 That must be part of it. That's part of it. Expectation things. That's part of it. The second part is that Jim Harbaugh took a really mediocre roster to the NFC title game, the last time he took over NFL team. And we look back now. Now, we go, oh, those guys are studs, if you look at the roster now, he made them studs.
Starting point is 00:25:54 Nobody was saying that was a sleeping giant at all in San Francisco. I know. I was there. I watched that team, and they got a lot better year over year. There's going to be a credibility there. Normally, that's fake, but, like, a lot of times, like, coaches don't even out of practice. Like, Jim Harbaugh knows how to hit and, like, evaluate. Like, there's just going to be a lot there.
Starting point is 00:26:13 You mentioned the Joy Bosa thing, how nobody talks about it. I've been thinking about this recently. There's so many situations that are just hidden. in plain sight. And I don't know what the difference is between like Trent Williams holdout, which no one is talking about. And the Brandon Ayuk thing, where we're just getting like every 30 seconds, there's a different meeting that we're hearing about. And it's like, I just don't know how it got so lopsided that there's just some situations we cannot shut the hell up about. And other situations like Joey Bosa, they're literally nobody talks
Starting point is 00:26:41 about. Fantasy? I don't know. That's my guess. And there's one where the principals being the front office of the San Francisco 49ers think they can skew the situation by talking to the media and the other one they're like oh yeah, we know Trent Williams just wants to skip all of training camp and we're going to give him a raise and he'll be there next week.
Starting point is 00:27:03 I'm putting the over under on Trent Williams. I don't know when their preseason game is, but 36 hours after their last preseason game is when I... That was the old Walter Jones move. Walter Jones show up on September 1 and be like, time to make all pro teams. He's 36 years old. They don't need to see more.
Starting point is 00:27:19 out of Trent Williams. What he's doing? What am I doing? No, what's Trent Williams doing? How's he spending his time? He would hope he would stay in shape. I mean, he is like the most fearsome athlete maybe in the entire NFL. But yeah, it's a good question.
Starting point is 00:27:36 All right, I'm going to go. I'm looking up to see if he has an Instagram. I'll report back. All right. I'm going to go with my second pick and then we'll take a little bit of a break. This is where I'm already starting to wonder what do I want to do. I want too many things. I'm going back to the well again.
Starting point is 00:27:51 I didn't realize I was doing this. I've actually gone under on Bears two straight years. I think it was six and a half. Two years ago, it was seven and a half last year. And when I saw nine and a half, if it was eight and a half at draft kings, that's the link I sent you. So just so that we were going off the same one. I do think you get a little like extra odds or whatever.
Starting point is 00:28:15 I work for the NFL and none of these are real things. but it is the team I think I'm furthest from consensus, one of them. Under nine and a half, I feel great about, there's a lot of reasons. Number one, the second half defensive improvement last year, how reliant it was on turnovers. Yes, like on paper, it's a great back seven. But I still count the year and a half that Matt Eberfluse coached before that as something that matters.
Starting point is 00:28:41 So I think they need to have a great defense. And I'm just not sure they were average last year overall. If I'm looking for teams that are going to underachieve, I want to see, like, who has a bad combined line play, offensive line, defensive line? Like, to me, they're below average on balance, offensive line and defensive line. Our guy Aaron Schatz over at FDN, I always feel a little better if he's on the same page. He projects him for six and a half wins. And then I think that's partly because of the schedule.
Starting point is 00:29:07 So improved AFC South out of division, NFC West out of division. They do get soft, you know, teams with the last play schedule. We got Carolina, Washington, New England. So that's big. And then the last thing, and this is just an intangible. What have you guys thought about Matt Eber Fluse on Hard Knocks, like in his one-on-one meetings with Caleb Williams? We'll start with Kevin on this one.
Starting point is 00:29:31 But that is contributing to my decision. I sent a clip to Mina, and I don't want to, she can, I'm not going to put words in her mouth. You can, you can quote it. So there was a clip that went around earlier. today i'll just read the text uh there's a quick that went on earlier today of uh caleb arms folded not taking notes in the one-on-one head coach meeting now these head coach meetings especially with defensive head coaches are sort of embedded in football lore like bellichick and brady famously had them every monday and i don't think like charlie weiss and then josh mcdaniel and then bill o'brien
Starting point is 00:30:09 were even invited it was just those two guys and that's part of why brady was able to understand coverages so well is that he had the best defensive mind of history being like, here's what you need to look for. So these are valuable. There's a clip where Caleb Williams is in this meeting, and I don't know what they're doing, but he's got his arms crossed. He's not taking notes. A couple people made reference to this.
Starting point is 00:30:27 I, as the body language doctor, kind of agreed with some of the folks who pointed that out. So send us to Mina, and her response is, God, Ibruf looks incredible, though. It's true, though. She's not wrong. He's looked great. Am I wrong? That's worth like half a win.
Starting point is 00:30:46 That's worth half a win. Kevin, did you spot a lie in my response? That's all I want to know. I didn't spot a lie. You didn't address the arms folded allegations, though. I'm just getting like a little bit of a Joe Shane vibe where it's like, I want more out of these meetings. And he's like, hey, what do you think?
Starting point is 00:31:05 And they're just, I don't know. There's something there. And he is in the third year of his contract, Mina, where. look if they go nine and eight I win this one and so that's the thing like I think eight and nine with a tougher schedule or nine and eight is a totally normal good outcome for this team
Starting point is 00:31:22 and that's partly why I think that's totally fair I will say about Iber flus to give some more substantive commentary yeah you don't have to something that kind of gets lost we did the NFC north this week on my pod and something it comes out tomorrow that gets a little bit lost in when we talk about him
Starting point is 00:31:38 is him taking over the defense in the second half of the year after all the weirdness there, and how amazing they played. And there are numbers that are a little, this is probably why there's, like there was, there was a lot of turnovers, right, which used to tend to be a predictor for regression. But I think that back seven is really good. I think it's really talented young secondary, really great linebacker duo. I think pass rush is a question mark.
Starting point is 00:32:08 But it's an aggressive team. I think they're going to trade for a pass rusher at some point. So I'm, I'm, I think the, I actually agree with you, Greg. I think that's a little bit high of a line. But I am optimistic about this team generally. And I think they're going to be fighting for a playoff spot. I'd like to report, I think the bears are going to be fine. Trent Williams has not posted on Instagram since Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:32:34 And his last tweet is a retweet from two years ago, and Rich Chato Jocenko ranks him as one of the five most fashionable guys, Trent Williams, behind Steve Harvey. How do I get like that? Yeah, I love a life without any social media. I'm jealous. I'm already regretting this bear's pick. It's not fun.
Starting point is 00:32:56 I totally believe in Caleb. I could have picked more fun ones. The Bears have the third easiest schedule according to Sharp Analytics. They have a quarterback. I don't get that, though. Yeah, it all depends on different systems. What? Yeah, different systems.
Starting point is 00:33:10 NFC West, NFC North. They do have those three games, like kind of the layups, I mentioned. They had Carolina, Washington, New England on their schedule, which that'll help. All right, we're going to take a break, and then we will pick our last two teams each right after. What's up, everybody? Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Sticks, we take you inside the game from scouting reports and player development
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Starting point is 00:35:15 We're back on NFL Daily. I've got a big board like Kevin with about 13 more picks and still not totally decided which ones I'm going to take. But I don't have to worry about that right now because Kevin Clark from This Is Football has come up with two electric takes so far and we're going to hear what his next one is.
Starting point is 00:35:36 I wish I could trade back because I have so many teams I want to slander and I can't Every single pick is literally 50-50 just about so yeah All right There's a couple of worms I don't really want to open right now
Starting point is 00:35:56 I'm going to kind of do what you did which is just go back to the well on a really bad team it's the New York Giants under six and a half I only saw clips from hardrocks was not impressed with their operation there I do think like Malik neighbors
Starting point is 00:36:18 Hard Knocks based analysis are you going Yeah I do think Malik neighbors Joe Shane is pretty good looking guy Malik neighbors are going to be really good But I don't think Daniel Jones is very good I still think that they have talent holes in a lot of different places And I just don't think I think they're a very boom and bust team.
Starting point is 00:36:36 They have some high-level blue chip guys. But boy, I just, I don't see a lot going on here, fellas. I don't see a lot. Six and a half feels fair to me. Mina, both the Giants and commanders are six and a half. Cowboys are at nine and a half. Eagles at ten and a half. There are cases for the Giants.
Starting point is 00:36:55 I think the defense could absolutely improve. I think the offensive line could be the best offensive line. Daniel Jones has played by not good. but like it's it's always been bottom three or four in the NFL. I think it actually will be better this year. So I think six and a half feels fair. I feel like there's six to seven wins. Let me counterpoint that.
Starting point is 00:37:15 I think Daniel Jones is very bad. I think I've called him the Holy Trinity, which is expensive injury prone and bad, the big three, as I call them. Very, very bad. And Chris Canty was on my show yesterday, former giant played with a lot of great quarterbacks. And I said, we're talking about like Daniel Jones,
Starting point is 00:37:31 like getting a checkdown intercepted and like, you know, what's that like? And he was like, he said, well, he played with Romo and, and Eli and Flacco and guys who won a lot of things. And he was like, but there was one year Romo was hurt and we played with Brad Johnson. And then he played with Brooks Ballinger because Brad Johnson was so bad. And he was like, you see quarterback play and you just kind of check out from it because it's so bad. And I think sometimes, I'm not saying this is going to happen in week one with Daniel Jones, but he was like he was like literally there becomes a point where the quarterback play gets so bad
Starting point is 00:38:07 is chris can't he talk where you just say i'm i'm just gonna get out of here happy and healthy i'm good i'm all set like let's just live to fight another day and i'm a little bit worried that daniel jones the things and i thought there was a really great qb school breakdown of of um of daniel jones interceptions the other day that i watched and some of it is just the vanilla scheme and he didn't have any where to throw some of it was guys running the wrong route but he just seem to not control the football. And I think that that's just going to, it's not going to get any better. That particular skill is not going to get any better. He's not athletic enough to overcome that in any meaningful way. He's able to do it for a game, but not for 17. Brian Daibble seems a
Starting point is 00:38:52 little pre-fired to me, a little pre-fired, slightly pre-fired. How long was this QB school breakdown of the Daniel Jones? It was like 40 minutes. It was like 40 months. I was locked in. I don't know nearly as much as J.T. O'Sullivan does. And I can't look at a play and tell you exactly, you know, the right reads in the way that he can. But I watched that first interception and I could break it down for you just by going, do do do do do do do do do do do what, what you're all?
Starting point is 00:39:22 Like that's what it looked like to me. Yeah, like I don't think Daniel Jones plays all 17 games for them, not because of injuries. I think that at some point, I know. I know what you're getting that. Drew Locke, baby. Which, by the way, John Snyder tried to drop that little bomb in the off season. And I love that.
Starting point is 00:39:40 I love that. I love that. I love that. I love it, I love it too. I will, you know, as a, I'm not going to say I'm a Drew, Daniel Jones defender, but I did watch the entire first half.
Starting point is 00:39:49 And he threw more high-level throws in that game than I've seen Daniel Jones throw in any game in a while. So I at least was like, okay, at least he's tried. I saw some of those on the QD school. Those are broken down. This is why I saw, I saw every throw he made. Having friends in this industry over the course of many years because you have always been a Daniel Jones defender. You're so foolish shit right now.
Starting point is 00:40:13 You have always, you have three years defending him. I've always said he's about, like, if he was protected, he would just be close to league average. That's all I've said. So I thought he was vastly overrated after 2022, but it's always been such a bad situation. He was like, he can deliver it if you protected it. But that's a lot of crapping on.
Starting point is 00:40:31 Daniel Jones. That's too bad. Mena, what? Give me your next one, Mina. By the way, I don't disagree with what you just said about him. I just don't think that situation is that I'm, it's not like, he's dropping it. I don't think the offensive line is going to be that much better. All right, uh, I've had two picks already, so I'll spend my third on the Homer pick. I'm going over Seahawks seven and a half. Yeah. I, I feel like that's a pretty obvious one, honestly. Um, this is an offense that I think finished either 12th or 13th and DVOI at the top of my head. I think that we're going to see some improvement this year, hopefully with better
Starting point is 00:41:05 offensive line play. That's the only thing I'm concerned about the right tackle situation is dicey. But everything else I think will be good, and I'm really excited to see what Ryan Grubb places to the table. Brinks the table, pardon me. I'm still high on Gino. The flip side, though, is why I'm making this bet. The Seahawks defense, pardon me, was god awful last year.
Starting point is 00:41:24 And I think that they played below their talent level. And I think the addition of Mike McDonald on that side of the ball, even if he can get them just to average, which I think is totally plausible with the talent that they have on that roster, that gets you over seven and a half wins pretty easily. I completely agree. First of all, Grubb was really good last year at spreading the ball around in Washington. He's got those sort of targets in Seattle. Gino, I think we're all junior defenders here. He's going to be able to spread the ball around. Mike McDonald is really freaking smart, really freaking smart.
Starting point is 00:42:01 And I think we're going to see, like, I think Pete Carroll probably got a bit of a raw deal, but I think sometimes you just need a little bit of a shot in the arm. And Mike McDonald's going to go about that. Yeah, I, this number surprised me as much as any. If I was more strategic, I would have taken this before Mina could have, because I definitely love it. And it would have been one of mine. It's weird that, you know, they've won nine games the last two years.
Starting point is 00:42:25 I know the schedule is a big part of it. They all have tough schedules in the NFC West, in and out of division, and I know that's a big part of it, but Grubb McDonald, 24. Like, that to me is the campaign I'm behind. I think, and they're kind of, if you picked, I know I was saying like offensive line,
Starting point is 00:42:43 defensive line, that maybe would be the question of like, are they better than average at either? Definitely not on offensive line. But they're elite wide receiver cornerback combination. Like, and those are positions that are, highly paid, highly important, like that is as good as a wide receiver plus cornerback group as there maybe is in the league. I'm going to go next because it's connected. And I decided, you know, this is, you know, it's for information. But it's also an entertainment show. And
Starting point is 00:43:12 why not go big and get a little spicier, have some fun and go under 49ers, 11 and a half? I thought about that. To combine with it. Because I've just been, this is not a talent argument because yeah, that argument doesn't quite work, so that's dangerous. It's a schedule and human nature argument. Great division. We mentioned the schedule. They play the AFC East out of division. Pretty tough. NFC North out of division. They're extra games. The three extra games are at Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, and Chiefs. So if you were trying to come up with what's just about the toughest schedule possible, that's close to that. Okay, so that's number one.
Starting point is 00:43:57 Then they're in this situation where they have all the trappings of a team that's won repeatedly without the actual fun of having done it, like the weight of it all. Like I could absolutely see them winning 10 or 11 games. And this being the year, they win the Super Bowl anyways, but I still win this over, under because it's a tough regular season and maybe they don't win this division and maybe they have to get in as a wild card. There's other reasons to it, but those are the main ones. the biggest pitfall to me for the over is them thinking October doesn't matter like January matters so like if they need to experiment for two weeks like they're going to they're going to hey we're going to figure it out or hey we're going to hold a guy out for a couple weeks because all that matters is January if Brock Purdy's banged up do we sit him in December like that's the biggest obstacle to me but they've got the talent they've got the coaching we know what's going to happen to me it's do they care about the regular season or do they only care about January that's by the way what's kept me away from the chiefs um
Starting point is 00:44:53 same thing. But another thing, I think they don't care. They just like, yeah, no, I know. That's why I'm like, yeah, I don't know. It's just like, well, that was, Mr. was in my show. He was like, they'll just spend a year being like, hey, let's just develop this one, like, part of our game and we'll lose two games. And we'll
Starting point is 00:45:09 see you in January and win the Super Bowl. We're going to do all shovel passes for one game, just to see. Another point, I think. We're going to see if Cadarious Tony can play in the NFL. Donnie, I can't. It's like a Mr. Beast video. We took Cadarius Tony and put him in the NFL. The Niners were the fourth healthiest team in football last year And that to me seems unlikely
Starting point is 00:45:31 It's already, I mean, you don't have to write Greenlaw There's McCaffrey, I know they're saying he's fine But he's been out It's just, you know, a little bit of history there Debo history, Bosa history The line is thinner if I wanted to get a little more just tangible Like they're really counting on this Malik Collins Leonard Floyd
Starting point is 00:45:51 It's just not quite what it was and they don't. Now I'm saying all that thinking like, yeah, there's still the odds on favor to win the division. Yeah. They're still amazing. But just 11 and a half. It's, it's the human nature thing. It's the regular season thing. All right, we got one round to go. We're going to take one last break and then we'll be back. What's up everybody? Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Sticks, we take you inside the game from Scouting Reports and player development to team building philosophies, coaching trends
Starting point is 00:46:25 and how front offices construct winning rosters. Every week, we study the tape, talk to decision makers, and share the insights you won't find anywhere else. It's the kind of conversation that connects the dots, from college football prospects to the NFL stars of tomorrow. We break down the draft,
Starting point is 00:46:41 analyze matchups, and evaluate how teams put it all together on game day. Plus, we dig in the coaching strategies, roster construction, and the trends that shape the league year after year. Whether you're a die-hard fan or just love understanding the game on a deeper level, we give you the full
Starting point is 00:46:57 picture. If you want insight that goes beyond the box score, this podcast is for you. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sixth podcast on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Matt Jones. I'm Drew Franklin, and this is NFL
Starting point is 00:47:16 cover zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see Cody Colts Pretzel. That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh, my. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week, that is exactly what you're going to get. Listen to NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL.
Starting point is 00:47:47 Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. All right. We've reached our last round here. here, Kevin. This is exciting. We have not flown through this, so you will not have to prepare five picks. This will be your final selection, Kevin. There's three teams I'm staring at. One over, two unders. You can just say them because what does it matter? Let's hear. No, don't. Don't take five. No, no, no. No, no. I'm just curious. No, no. No, we can do, we can do honorable mentions at the end. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, we can do honor much at the end. Um, I'm going to, this is crazy. This is such a homer pick because they have, just to please
Starting point is 00:48:22 you, Greg, because they have one of the hardest gutters in football. The New England Patriots are going to win more than four and a half games. They're on mine, too. My list too. Four and a half years. Drake May.
Starting point is 00:48:33 Stupid. So first of all, like, Drake may look bad in practice for two reasons. First of all, it's a different sport going from college to pro because the hash marks are different and teams don't disguise anything at the college level. And you've never seen
Starting point is 00:48:47 a complicated blitz in your life. Okay? So, he looks bad because he's going against the Patriots defense, which learned ball from Bill Belichick, and who currently works under Geron Mayo, who also learned from Billiichick. There are a talented defense that can make any of the young quarterback's life,
Starting point is 00:49:05 hell, especially a guy who only played essentially two seasons at UNC in the ACC. And the fact that he looked rough for the first couple weeks should be expected. And the fact that everybody was so doom and gloom was surprising to me. Then you have the floor of the offense. top 10 in yards allowed, there's still a lot of talent there. There's still a Belichick, it's just Brian, who's there. John Mayer's a defensive coach. They're going to be fine, and that's all you need for over four and a half wins.
Starting point is 00:49:37 Yeah, the schedule, it's crazy. I mean, I know it'll end up getting easier, but when you look at their first like seven or eight games, it's just there, it's wild to see a team that's projected to have five fewer wins than anyone else in their division. And I heard you on the defense, but they did. fatten up last year, like on the easy QBs a little bit. And it is a little worrisome that their two most talented players in the front seven are either not there or in Christian Barmore's case out indefinitely with this blood clot issue. So that they are, they are in a little
Starting point is 00:50:07 bit. But I'm with you. I wrote them down. I just wasn't going to pick them because it just feels like bad juju. Too many good players on this defense still. The Barmore injury loss really hurts me. That makes me nervous about them being top eight or whatever I had. them projected. But I think Keon White's going to have a monster season. Uche contract year. I still feel good about Anthony Jennings. Just like a lot of players who are good too.
Starting point is 00:50:33 I mean, the linebackers are good. Corners are good. You got Gonzalez back. Phili Yates, who's very plugged into the Patriots, is a huge fan of DeMarcus Covington, who they promoted to be the defensive coordinator. So I just think this defense is too good to lose four games. I just don't see it. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:50:48 And the offensive talent is actually better than it's been. one of the Eagles reporters Bo Wolf put it this way when he was watching. This was more a comment on the Eagles, but he was like, if you were ranking the wide receivers at their joint practices, it's like obviously it's AJ Brown and Devontas Smith one and two. But then the next seven people were Patriots. They actually do have like six number three receivers. None of them are very good in terms of like elite players, but I think it's better with Ramandre than it's been. It's funny that the Packers have six number twos and the Patriots have six number threes.
Starting point is 00:51:21 not really how you want a team build but i like that thank you thank you for kissing up that was on my longer list uh as well all right mina your last pick all right i'm staring at the sun this one i'm touching the third rail the monkey's paw is about to curl i'm taking stealers under eight and a half i know my time doesn't lose makes so much sense man this team so last year uh they want to 10 games. They had 7.9 Pythagorean Thames, which wins, which was 21st. They had a, they ranked 21st also in a points margin. They were very healthy last year.
Starting point is 00:52:03 I know T.J.O. Wissed some games, but they were seventh in adjusted games lost. I don't, I'm not overweighing the preseason here, but I feel like a bet on this team is that the defense continues to play at an elite level, which they've got like a lot aging players and that the offense is an improvement on last year and boy i don't know about that offense guys it's what did you call the raiders quarterback competition hostile this one is yeah the hostile like hostile hostile hostel hostel five hostile towards the sport oh hostile saw it's the saw the saw franchise um i uh had that on my longer list I completely agree.
Starting point is 00:52:50 My only concern, I actually said this, thought about this recently. Like, you know how the reason jetliners don't crash, usually don't crash, is because there's 500 things that have to go wrong, they say. And if one thing goes right, the airplane stays in the air. Like, that's kind of how the Steelers are built. Like, the plane is always in the air because of they always have a good line. They always have a good front seven. There's not a lot of distractions.
Starting point is 00:53:16 The defense, the coaching is always sound. Mike Tomlin's really good at motivating his guys and just telling them directly what they need to hear. And I kind of think, like, I think a lot about the line from Seth Wickersham's book where Jimmy Johnson told Belichick that I think the phrase was 24 teams, we'll just get out of your way. The Steelers are always in the eight, always. And that's why I just think they win more games than they lose every single year, including vision. The only thing, you know, Mike Thomas not good at, though, is hiring offensive coordinators. It used to be, and I don't know, maybe Arthur Smith works, and I have some optimism that it's an upgrade from Matt Canada, but he hasn't really been able to figure out how to construct
Starting point is 00:53:59 an offense. And it's been, it's been a minute. All right, I'm going to, man, I think I'm just going to go for the one that's more fun, because I have two unders that I feel pretty strongly about. I'll just say I'm Browns and Saints. And, yeah, one, Browns is one of mine. Maybe let's talk Browns after this. We'll just add it. But I'm not going to do that. I want to finish feeling positive in one that I do fully believe in, too, which is the kind of the most basic one on the board, maybe,
Starting point is 00:54:27 Texans over nine and a half to me. I had that. I had that. Just like, they're so freaking talented. Anyone, it's just crazy. Anyone that's gone through their training camp is always, like, when they leave their training camp, they're just like, oh my God, their players are just so freaking good, Mina. The flip side of the Daniel Jones meltdown was whole.
Starting point is 00:54:46 Holy Texas defense is going to be sick this year. Derek Steenley looks like he's ready to have like a top three cornerback type season. Daniel Hunter, absolute monster opposite Will Anderson. I'm so geeked on that defense right now. And oh, by the way, they have the, you know, looking quarterback who broke records and also looks unbelievable. I mean, I feel like you can't be high enough on the 2024 Houston, Texas right now. So he had the best deep passer rating in history. And where he struggled, oddly enough, was short and intermediate.
Starting point is 00:55:19 So you go out and you get the, I believe, the third best intermediate receiver in football last year and Stephon Diggs, pair that with the normal growth, pair that with year two of this offensive coordinator. They're going to be awesome this year, like truly awesome. They remind me so much of the Lions a year ago where they were kind of that team. And then everyone by the end doesn't want to seem too basic by the time the season starts. And like, I don't know if there was Lions pushed back by the start of that year. And it's like, no, they actually did show who they were.
Starting point is 00:55:46 were at the end of the previous season. They really are that talented. The coaching staff is great. The division's interesting. We showed the overrunners and like Colts eight and a half. I'm not opposed to that either. And the Jaguars to me are just a tough team to talk about to figure out. I'm actually going to be talking with John Shipley of Jaguars on SI.com on our next show.
Starting point is 00:56:04 Because the Jaguars are a team that fascinates me. But, man, CJ Stroud, you're always betting on the quarterback. Drew Dinsick of NBC, who I think is really good with this stuff. He has this podcast, Bet the Edge. He sees like Ravens 9 to 2019 in this Texans team, kind of like second year quarterback that might compete for the MVP and that they have like a 13, 14 win upside. And I don't think that's crazy.
Starting point is 00:56:28 So with these overs or unders, I want ones that like I think they have a chance to beat by three or four. I feel like the Texans do have a chance to beat it by by two and a half or three. So that's my last one. And yeah, to mention Browns, just to get it in there. But it's not going to count. Not going to count towards their draft. It's the vibes.
Starting point is 00:56:45 it's the defensive decline. Jim Schwartz, here's the more tangible reason. Jim Schwartz, I've been watching this now for 20 years. He just pops up every like five years with an absolutely electric defense. Go look to see what happens the next year. Like the other 15, 16 years he's had as a defensive coordinator have mostly been fine.
Starting point is 00:57:06 He did get two in a row at one point in Tennessee, and that's what got him the Detroit job. But other than that, he has like four or five epic defensive seasons. and the rest are just kind of in the middle. And so that's just like the decline. And then also just injuries, like Watson's out of practice today with arm soreness. Yeah, I was going to say general arm soreness. Right.
Starting point is 00:57:26 I've just stayed. I've talked so much about Watson. I was leaving that out of it because James might not be even a downgrade, but Dalvin Tomlinson, Denzel Ward, Jack Conklin, Jedrick Willis, Greg News. Like, it's all these guys going into the season. So that's a lot. Yeah. It's literally 52 people.
Starting point is 00:57:43 are hurt and they're on the side and then the only people in the field are Mike Brable and James Winston running sprints over and over and over again. That's the 2024 Cleveland Browns. I love that. Sorry, they're 11 and... Oh no, I must have clicked. I must have clicked. They're 8 and 1. I'm sorry.
Starting point is 00:57:58 They're 8 and 1. So it would be under 8 and 1⁄2. 8 and 1st fair enough. It's just more that's one where I could see the wheels falling off a little bit. Maybe I'm overrating and I'm obviously like not a Watson fan, but they them and the Saints stuck out to me as like teams that if they get off to a creaky
Starting point is 00:58:13 start that it could just I'm not touching the NFC South with a 10 foot pole I hear you on that in this exercise yeah I thought about over bucks was on my list but I didn't I didn't go there just that division may I ask why I was surprised there's a team
Starting point is 00:58:29 that didn't come up either way and it's the Vikings 6.5 I had other Vikings a total disaster okay I thought about under Vikings oh really no that was on if we had like eight picks they would have been over Vikings would have been one of my eight pick eight or nine picks they were on my medium list why under kevin that's cool well because
Starting point is 00:58:50 sam donald's been a league for a long time and uh i mean i pulled the stat up here since 2019 39 quarterbacks have had a thousand dropbacks among that group darnell ranks 37th in EPA per play and 36th in success rate yeah those first those first couple years i remember bringing it up on around the NFL podcast, the historical comps that Sam Darnel had were always like the worst quarterbacks in NFL history. I think he can be fine. And then what happened in the ensuing years? Yes. But Mina's with me on over Vikings. All right, let's recap. I know. Before I, before I say goodbye, Kevin was wrong about the Vikings, but it's not going to count. We are going to keep track of this. Kevin went over Rams, eight and a half, under Raiders, six and a half, under Giants six and a half,
Starting point is 00:59:35 and over Pat's four and a half. So he did not, um, you know, really pick the best teams in league. He kind of trolled at the bottom, and we'll see. Mina goes over Broncos five and a half, under Chargers, eight and a half. I like that. Over Seahawks, seven and a half, under Steelers, eight and a half. Those all make a lot of sense to me, I have to say. Hmm, chill just went down my spine.
Starting point is 00:59:56 And then I went for a lot of the more premium teams here. I went over Bill's nine and a half, under Bears, nine and a half, under 49ers, 11.5, and over Texans, nine and a half to make my son happy. I wanted him to fill this out as an exercise. I thought maybe it could be part of the show. Even I gave him the list. And he just went overs with like the four teams that made the championship game last year.
Starting point is 01:00:19 And I just realized like, you're not ready for this. You know, you're Jordan Love and your rookie season. That's not good content. You're just picking overs on the four best teams. Who was on television talking about football. I think your son is ready for this because what the analysis he just provided, I think, would work certain programming.
Starting point is 01:00:38 You sound like Brian Flores and your son is Tua. You're just really giving them tough love. No, I didn't, you know, I didn't tell that to him. But I was just like, okay, this is, I don't know if this is good content. You just, all the teams that made the final four being over, that doesn't, that doesn't get me going. But he's a big Texans fan, so he'll like that pick. Mina, what if I rebranded next year and was just one of those people who just tweeted how good a team's going to be every single day? Would that be a good career move?
Starting point is 01:01:04 What kind of format are we talking about? What kind of tweet format? Just like, I make a video. And I'm just like, you know, here come the Raiders. Everybody's sleeping on. Everybody's sleeping on the Raiders. Everybody's sleeping on the Raiders. Right.
Starting point is 01:01:17 I did not do an entire offseason of NFL daily, but next year, that is my plan to go through every team. And at one point, give their fan base just a little, a little something to chew on that they're, that they're underrated. Because who's going to really go through all of them? I feel terrible for saying this. There's a guy who does that in college and I get really annoyed with him. And then one day, he just sent me a random DM.
Starting point is 01:01:39 He's like, every team is like going to be a problem this year. He just randomly sent me a DM. Never met him in my life. And he just said, thank you for all you do for the sport of football. And I was like, what a DM. I love this guy. And you felt just like all those fan faces. He was calling you underrated.
Starting point is 01:01:55 Everybody's sleeping on Kevin Clark. You guys, you guys do do a lot. You do a lot for the sport. You're making us all smarter, Kevin, at ESPN. Can I quickly tell a Daniel Jones story that I wasn't able to tell earlier? Does anybody have to go? You can't. You can't know now.
Starting point is 01:02:08 There's no, there's no time. Okay. All right. None of us are Eric. If this story sucks, if this story sucks, you can cut it. So I went to a Zach Bryan concert, which after Arlington at the Super Bowl. And it was presented by a beer company. And I had a lot of the beer company.
Starting point is 01:02:26 A lot of it was served. And I had a lot. And I was actually, ironically, going to afterwards meet up with the NFL Live crew at a different event. So I have so much. and I'm leaving and it's late and I end up not meeting up with the NFL live crew and Darlington and I are just having a blast the second round concert
Starting point is 01:02:45 and I checked my camera roll the next day and I kind of remember this it wasn't like I blacked out but I took an uncomfortably close photo of Daniel Jones and Shane Gillis talking to each other just to like at the valet just like a creep shot
Starting point is 01:03:03 and I don't know why I did it Like, I don't know if it was to send my Giants fan friends or whatever. But now I've been, think, I've been horrified at this ever since. It's like, did they look at me and we're like, why is this guy taking a creep shot of us at the valet? Which, by the way, I didn't valet a car. I walked down the Vegas trip. So now I've just got this creep shout on my phone. And I now have been wondering if they looked at me and were like, this guy's a creeper.
Starting point is 01:03:26 Well, let me tell you, I don't think Daniel Jones sees that far away that well based on his quarterback play over the last four years. Brutal. I mean, we spend five minutes getting after Daniel Jones earlier, and then we end the show with that. I want you to send this, Kevin, and if you can send this picture to me, we could add it if you feel comfortable with that. But I'm with you. I did that same thing when I saw Shohei Otani on the field at the Rams game. I totally lost my mind because it was Shohei Otani. And then I realized, like, I'm being a total creep. I'm like three feet away from this man and bothering him. And so I regret it. I hope you. you don't regret this. But like, I'm not, especially, I'm not like, I'm not, I was so close.
Starting point is 01:04:11 Oh my God. Oh my God. I was so, look at this. I was way too close. Yeah, that's weird. Why is Jane Gillis always with NFL players? He was at Christian McCaffrey's wedding. I don't know.
Starting point is 01:04:25 What? I don't know. I do appreciate what you guys do for football, Kevin. I mean it. You're, uh, you're making us better. You're making us smarter with this is football. over at ESPN and obviously all the NFL programming around the horn there. Check out his podcast. Check out the Mina Kimes show
Starting point is 01:04:42 featuring Lenny. And as I mentioned, yeah, I will be back with our last show of the week. I'm very into the AFC South this year, Texans and Jaguars. We're actually doing a bit of a deep dive. Seth Payne, who covers the Texans, John Shipley, who does the Jaguars, and we'll recap the preseason games. Until then, see you next time. Hey everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move to Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies
Starting point is 01:05:20 to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand. The why behind what happens on Sundays. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast.

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