NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Over/Unders with Nick Wright

Episode Date: August 28, 2025

Gregg Rosenthal is joined by FS1's Nick Wright for NFL Daily's annual Over/Unders Draft. Find out what side Gregg and Nick are on for the 2025 win totals of the Chiefs (03:52), Lions (07:30), Buccaneers (11:00), Colts (16:20), Raiders (20:40), Vikings (23:00), Broncos (25:50), Jets (31:00), 49ers (36:00), Cowboys (39:30), Commanders (45:10), Jaguars (48:00), Saints (50:00), Bengals (51:10), and Bears (54:00). Note: time codes appoximate. NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we've just been killing time since our last over-under win-totals draft. I'm Greg Rosenthal, and I am so excited to be joined this year by my number one pick for this show. It's Nick Wright. You know them? Hopefully you love them. They've expanded first things first to an extra. hour. It's three to six every day Eastern. He also has a great show on YouTube. What's Right with Nick right. Nick, you talk so much openly about your maybe irresponsible gambling that you just felt like the right man for this show. Yeah, listen, everyone should gamble responsibly, but that is a do as

I say, not as I do, edict. And yeah, this is the best time of year. And thank you for it is a true pleasure to be on my favorite daily podcast. That is not an exaggeration. That is true. It is helped. It is the best way for me to keep up with everything that's happening in the NFL during the off season. And if I may shout out Jordan Rodriguez, who I've never met, never spoken with, who I think just does an awesome job. I also feel like I know Nick Shook really well from the pods. And I know there's a whole cast of characters and everybody has a great job. But I really appreciate you having me on and now I get is are there stakes on this like how do we determine winners is there because there you know I work for the NFL which is saved me a lot of you know

drama um internally but I I think we can I think we can figure out something that could make it fun that's that's yeah something we could just be podcast related yeah like the winner like the the winner has to have the other guys podcast logo in the background for an episode or That's perfect. I don't, you know what I mean? Please. Because I feel confident. I've honked about it too much, but I'm on a three-year heater with this show.

You know, we did it back in the around the NFL days. We've only done three to four picks every year. So it's just 10 picks over the last three years. So I'm 10-0 over the last three years doing this show. Wait, you're, hold on. You haven't missed one? 11 or no. You haven't missed one?

I haven't missed a single one. 3 and 0 4-0 4-0 now that streak's probably ending today because we we were talking and I agree it's just the two of us it's been three or four in the past I think it'd be fun to get to more shows and actually if you check out what's right with Nick Wright he's going through each and every team but I've I've avoided that that's already up on his show so I was worried about that I was like you're going to get to front or you're going to get to know my my process can I ask a rule here yes all right if you take a team Yes. Is that team, is, let's say you had the, I'm just going to pick a random one. Let's say you had the Eagles and you had them over 11 and a half. Do I have the ability to take the under on that team? Okay. So teams can't, but the only thing can't happen, I can't have the exact same bet, but teams are eligible.

Yes. Is that, it's basically a way to, yeah, to put your stake down and say, what are your favorite picks? And, and what we, we can't double up on. them. So it's a draft back and forth. And yeah, we're using the over under wind totals that are like the most common. I think we took this one off of ESPNs. We don't we don't have a sponsor right now for picks. But hey, ESPN just bought us. So why not? Nick, I because, you know, I do want it to just come to this fresh. I didn't look at your picks. Although I held back giving away one of mine the other show just in case you were listening just out of strategy.

but I will give you the first pick and I kind of have a feeling where you're going so here's the thing you think you know where I'm going you think that and your draft strategy has probably been based a bit around

that you really have the first pick because you know where I'm going to use my first pick it's a little Princess Bride he knows that I know that he knows that I know situation so I'm going to throw you a curveball and not go with the team you think I'm going to go with

I'm going to go with the team. Very few people believe in this season. A lot of people think is not even going to win their own division, much less win their conference. And that is the nobody believes in us underdog Kansas City Chiefs to go over 11 and a half wins. Listen, I know, listen, I know they were, they're unwatchable these days.

It's, you know, they play a boring brand of football. That there is, you know, the league can only. helped them with so many conspiracies. By the way, if we check back in on the Rishi Rice isn't being suspended because God knows no one's going to watch Chiefs Eagles and week two if Rishie Rice isn't there, that was a smart take, friends. I'll go with the Chiefs to hit their over like they do literally every single year.

Yeah, you got me. For a second, I did start thinking about my strategy because the Chiefs would have been, and I did write them down in order of confidence, they would have either been my second or third pick overall. Like, I am totally with you on they're over. They have been a pick in this exercise previously, I believe two or three years ago, maybe both. A lot of times, like, the easiest ones are the best teams being most consistent. Now I am at the point, though, I are, I almost, I don't think it's a zag, but we just did our award predictions with Jordan yesterday. And, you know, we both had Mahomes for MVP. I do just feel like, you know, we are going to get a much more entertaining

better Chiefs offense, better Mahomes season. And they're 11 and a half. What is there over under this year? And yeah, I feel pretty good with their schedule right around 13. So I'm with you. Yeah, I mean, their schedule is hard every year because they're in the Super Bowl every year. And they still.

I mean, they're also on the AFC West. So let's calm down. It's fine. It's fine. What do you mean? It's like an average division. It's fine. It's nothing crazy.

I agree with you on that, actually. but I don't know if you've heard about Drew Breeze 2.0, Bo Nix. I mean, I'm not sure. Save it. Okay, sorry, go ahead. Well, no, you never know. I mean, maybe we could do a Broncos under in this pot

because, yeah, like we talked about, I'm giving up the dream of being undefeated for a fourth year because we're going to make so many picks. Although, I swear to God, I made a long list last year, and it was freaking outrageous. Now I need to share it with people because people will just think, I was outrageous.

No, no, no. People don't, listen, I'll be honest, there are people in the media that I think the audience looks at and they're like, yeah, that guy's a liar. You're not one of them. I don't think people think you're out here making things up. Here's what I would say, because I kind of pushed you for us to do more. Yes. What if only the first five count for your historical record to give yourself a chance and

then the rest are bonus pick? That seems confusing to me. Okay, that's fine. I think it's actually a good thing. It's like Iga Shviantek this year, she was defending the French Open for like the fourth or fifth time. The pressure was so immense at this point.

She just had to lose to get it out of the way and then she became Igash Viantic again. I don't need that sort of pressure. I need a loss. I'm taking the Lions over 10 and a half as my first pick. And I know the DVOA and the advanced analytics site,

look at their schedule and look at some of last season. And there's a reason that number is so low that in general the NFC North is loaded. a division schedule is absolutely outrageous. Their road schedule is preposterous because they're playing all the best teams in the league on the road. The Chiefs, the Ravens, the Bengals, the Eagles, the Rams.

I mean, that's crazy to play that many good teams on the road. I'm just not going to get too complicated here. To me, they are right there at the very top of the NFL with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Ravens and the Eagles as the best team. You give me 10 and a half. I think that division is a little overrated in terms of the competition.

I still think they're easily the most talented and best coach team. And so I'm not going to think too hard. I'll go lines over 10 and a half. Okay. So that wouldn't have been one of my picks, but that is because I did all 30. I did on what's right with Nick Wright, get it wherever you get your podcast. I did 12 bets. And then, but the other 20 teams, I still said which side I was leaning on.

You know, so for the lions, they weren't one of my bets, but I did lean over. here is my only trepidation. You said they're going to be really well coached. We hope. We know that Dan Campbell is like the head. They're going to be really well coached, but are they going to have good schematics? And here is a take I've kind of been working on,

which is culture setting is wildly important for a bad team that you're taking over. And once you graduate to contender, schematics are more important. Because it's easier to have a good culture when you're, you know, playing meaningful games, all those things. So I think Dan Campbell is the heartbeat of that team. But I also think they could miss Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn. And then my only, if we look up and the Lions went seven and ten, which again, I do not think is, they have too much talent.

I don't think it's going to happen. But if they are the team that's like, oh, my God, what happened to them? I think the only way that happens is if the playoff game plus the loss of Ben Johnson rattled golf, who you guys have talked about on quarterback Island and about how consistent he is at this point, I just think that that type of catastrophic postseason performance coming on the heels of, not a catastrophic, but a devastating postseason loss. I would say there's a 10% chance that, you know, golf is shaken because of it. Again, I like your pick.

I mean, why would it be shaken now? He's had so many clunkers in big spots. It does happen. It's why, you know, I feel anxious about predicting them to win the Super Bowl, but 10 and a half games. The schematics take, I do like that one. Like, does he have a little Mike Tomlin in him who has not done a good job? The difference is, I think, man, Campbell was so good at picking his coaching staff and

coaching up his coach. coaching staff and developing them as a coaching staff that I have faith in his coordinator on defense, especially Calvin Shepard, who's been there. And I just think that defense is going to be so much better. And that gives them a lot of wiggle room. I am a little worried because they're just talking about, oh, the playoffs only matter. If we're a team that, you know, goes 11 and six or whatever, it's okay if we have less wins as long as the playoffs only matter. So I do worry, I might have to sweat this a little bit, but not too much. I just took it as the one pick. All right, you're up. All right. This is a team.

that I think going into December will be alive to be the one seat in their conference. And that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over nine and a half. So I have two very, and we'll get to the other one later, whether you pick it or I do, you know, kind of bullish or bearish predictions that I am preparing that, you know, midway through October on, first things first, the topic bar is going to say, Nick, ready to admit you were wrong

about dot, dot, dot, because I think that a team that I think is going to be mediocre is going to start strong and the bucks I think are going to be excellent, but I could see them starting media, you know, starting average. But their final 10 games for Tampa Bay are at the Saints, home for the Patriots. That's not an easy one. At the Bills, obviously tough, at the Rams, then Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, all in Tampa, at the Panthers, at the Dolphins, which to that point might be being coached by interim head coach, and then home for the Panthers to end the year. I think they could finish super strong. I love Abuka. I thought it was somewhat shocking that Wurfs and Godwin are on the active roster, even if it doesn't

mean they're going to play week one. I like their opening three games as well, Falcons, Texans, Jets. And I think that Baker Mayfield knows I am one more awesome year away from being in the $55 million a year club. I know that hurts your feelings, Greg, which it shouldn't because he's part of the short king club alongside you. I mean, he's six foot tall. If you're trying to put six foot tall people in a short king club, where are we living? I know amongst his peers I get it he is he's not undersized for weirdly amongst my peers like a nebish short looking Jewish guy is pretty average so no I was going to say yeah absolutely like you're like amongst your are you are taller compared to your peers than then Baker is compared to his oddly um but uh still not true but I will take the bucks over nine and a half with an absolute bullet. Yeah, I love it. I'm already regretting not watching your show is on purpose because I did clock that because I could have strategized that was pretty high up there on my list.

Eric, our producer, and I kind of forgot we did a first look at overrunners. I didn't make any picks, but back in April when they came out, just like we just, you know, shot it around with Nick Shook. And I went and checked what I said on that. And the one thing I had kind of forgotten, I said that then I was like, oh, yeah, that's right. I should trust me for instance. Because that bucks over nine and a half looked crazy to me because I'm with you. I think they have a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl. I always look at line play.

Like their defensive line, I think, is going to be a lot better this year because of Hassan Reddick, because of the development of some of their younger guys, even on the edge that people don't know, like a Chris Braswell. And I just think their defense is going to be better in general. And I love the consistency on offense. So, yeah, that's a little annoying. And the division. And the division.

And it's nine and a half. I thought they'd be 10 and a half. There's two teams in that division that could have the number one. pick of the draft. You know, I don't, you know what I mean? I don't think the Panthers will be quite that bad. Sorry to Saints block party. The Saints, I do think will be that bad.

But, um, yes, yes, go ahead. Don't give him away. Our producer Eric, by the way, I think has had a journey that a lot of, um, your fans, your listeners have gone through. He's a Bill's fan. So I think he had complicated feelings about Nick Wright. But yeah, I think you've won him over, over time, you know, that you know, ball.

that he doesn't just hate you. Now he respects you and hates you. Two things have happened with me and Bill's fans. One is I got a little credit with them because last year when everyone was way prematurely short selling them, I was like, oh, I think they're actually going to be really, really good. They were my number one overall pick in the over underdraft last year, by the way. You and I were, we talked about it last year, that people were,

I thought that people had overrated the talent of the players on the previous bills teams who then left, which then made them underrate the bills because they thought they had lost more than they had lost. So I think that helped. And the other thing that helped is it's hard to be mad at me for just being right every year. And so like at some point, they're like, you're a hater. But they're like, okay. But so yeah. And we had Dion Dawkins on the show. and he seems to be, he's a delightful fellow. I like him a lot.

I didn't love that he kept calling me Nicky. It felt like dismissive, but I did enjoy the spot, but go ahead. He must be well-like, because he got ranked in the top 40 of the NFL Network's players, and I was just like, man, his teammates, and I mean, he's a good player.

His teammates in the league, but just, like, love that dude as a human, too. Not saying, yeah, okay, let's go. Second pick. So I went back and tracked, and by the way, Bill's overs were two, on my picks the last couple of years. I've really gotten at the top of league

and the bottom of league the last two years. Teams I think are going to stink and teams I think are going to be great. This is a team I think is going to stink, which is getting seven and a half games. It is the Indianapolis Colt. Let's go under. I thought about taking this first overall.

I go with my gut. I try not to overthink these things, to be honest. And I just was like, man, this team could absolutely stink. You agree. Oh, not only do I agree. I now have major FOMO because I was debating whether or not to take them with my second pick. Yes. I think they could have the number one pick of the draft.

I think it's on the board. I agree. I think that part of that is just, in my opinion, the football karma of how they handled Anthony Richardson and the quarterback situation in Daniel Jones. And I just feel like they deserve a super down year. Another part of it is, like, is there a single player on that offense I love? Like, Jonathan Taylor theoretically, but you, I, if we were to, you know, rank running backs one through whatever, like, I think Jonathan Taylor probably shows up a little lower than

you would initially think. And I just, I feel like they deserve some comeuppance for drafting a quarterback who never played college basically and everyone being like listen the guy can leap tall buildings in a single bound and is fast in the speed of light we don't know if he can throw but hey this unmolded clay and then 15 games in being like screw it Daniel Jones like I just hate the process of that so much um and so I agree I agree with you wholeheartedly and then division wise without again giving them away. I think the AFC South could be a little better than people

expect this year. So you're not like, that's really a, does Cam Ward, you know, make them viable adjacent question? And so because of all those reasons, yeah, I love, I love that pick for you. I'm jealous. It was partly

like Shane Steikin's press conference and he's clearly warring with his general manager and I just was watching it all and thinking, oh man, these are the signs of a team that completely implodes. Everyone knows that they're about to get fired. They're not agreeing from the top.

Like there's new ownership in theory with Jim Mercy's dot. It reminds me a lot of the Panthers a couple of years ago in Bryce Young's rookie year, who were getting like six and a half or seven. People were kind of up on them. And just there's a lot here that I think is bigger than football that I'm worried about. And then you look at the football itself. You're replacing a couple guys on the office. defensive line. You're hoping Lou Anirumo, you know, helps that defense. Shane Stuyken has gotten

this team to win and the schedule is not bad. So that, that concerns me a little bit. But sometimes I think you got to look, you know, beyond just the X's and the O's and the guys on the team. Because there are good weapons around Daniel Jones. I kind of like their skill position group overall. But to me, it's a more, you know, yeah, I think they have four wide receivers you like. I like Tyler Warren enough. Like Jonathan Taylor is a good. Like, if you put a real quarterback and, a better situation and like I would like this team fine but we're not in that world and I'm going under and you know what I love in these exercises is like I had the giants last year and the bears I love when like you know you already won by week 13 they're stuck at two or three wins

oh yeah to get the seven or eight and I think they are the most likely team that that is yeah that's how that's most that most years with the chiefs over you have a you have a clocked by just after thanksgiving and you're mentioning a stike and ballard potential you know power struggle It's a shame neither one of those guys who spent a bunch of years cultivating friends in the media to have his back if that happened. It's a good call.

Yeah, Chris Ballard has lasted. He has the Jeff Fisher sort of memorial lasting a couple years extra just because he's well connected. All right, go ahead. All right. Well, you've, you know, you've shaken up my draft board.

I had a very clear top three and one of them's been taken now. So I am going to go with my third. third consecutive over, and it is a team in the same division as one of my other overs, which typically you don't want to do. But I feel that strongly about, you went from my bottom three coach to maybe top 10, bottom three quarterback to top 12. And that is the Las Vegas Raiders, who I understand are going to have some trouble

defensively. However, if we know anything about Pete Carroll, it is he will coach up your secondary. Max Crosby's awesome. And is it on the board that the defense will naturally be a bit better because they have, they don't have the energy sapped that a team has by having awful quarterback play. You add to it that. I love Gentie. Bowers is great. I don't have to preach the gospel of Gino to you. And listen, I, on my show, I picked the Raiders to make

the playoffs. Wow. They need seven wins for this. I think the Raiders over is a very, very healthy bet. Yeah, I think this is going to be your worst take of the

show. Wow. Well, not the over. That's fine. Can they win seven games? I'm going to go against it. If we do a long enough list, and now I don't need to take that pick anytime soon because I know where you're going. But making the playoff seems crazy to me. I mean, I get it. Best defensive coach, all that. I also like to pick what I'm rooting for, and I am rooting for the Raiders this year because of Gino, so I'm

conflicted. But P. Carroll wasn't a good defensive coach for like the last eight years of his career in Seattle. And that roster stinks. I mean, it is, I think it is the worst defensive roster in the NFL. I actually don't think it's close, even though it has Max cross me. They are 32, 31, 30. So that just seems like a lot to overcome for me. That's, that's disappointing. I thought you might be with me because you're like, you know so much. I do. And I'm, I'm rooting for it. So I'll be conflicted when I take the under later. If we go long enough, we'll see how many we get through. I'm going to go with when I know you're not taking. Maybe I should be strategic then. Let's actually go one further down

list. And let's go of Vikings over eight and a half now. That was one of the things that stuck with me all the way since April. You look surprised. Oh, I'm very surprised. I know they won, what did they win last year? 14. 14 games. The Bears won five, by the way, and they have the exact same over under this year. I just think people are like, oh, how could we possibly recover from losing Sam Darnold? Just think of all the teams that fell apart after they got rid of Sam Darnold. It's like, no, Sam Darnold was not that important to this team. The offensive scheme, the best wide receiver in the NFL, the coach, they were what's important. And oh, by the way, like the best defense in the NFL or maybe the most talented entering year three.

I get the schedule is really tough. And I'm betting on two NFC North teams here, which is like you mentioned, a little tricky to go over on both of them. But eight and a half just felt like an, I would be really surprised if this team had a losing record. year i really would i like them better than the packers i like them you know to win i i would put them if it was at nine and a half i'd go over that too you're here's my only question on the best defense in football part of it so many turnovers last year like that is that that that is the one piece of that that is a little concerning and the other piece is obviously uh j j mccarthy with the limited experience in college.

You're right that we have seen Kevin O'Connell win with Cousins and Darnold and get the best out of those guys. What we haven't seen Kevin O'Connell do is win with inexperience. Like, Darnold's experience was bad, but it was experience. Kurt Cousins had a bunch of experience, obviously, when Kevin O'Connell got there. And so, J.J., not playing a ton in college, being that young, and then missing all of last year, that to me would be a concern plus I'm probably higher on the bears than you are leads to where I would it is hard to go from 14 wins to seven wins like that is

relatively speaking pretty rare but I wouldn't have gone with the over so that you could have taken this whenever you wanted it yeah that's that's a thing after doing these draft everyone everyone has much different opinions anyways it was surprising actually that we had so much in common, at least with the chiefs and the Colts up at the top. I feel great about this. Josh Mattella said this is their master's level

year on the defense. Year three, I think they're going to be peaking. All right, you're up next. All right, this is one that I fear you might have tipped your hand a bit when you said, ah, the AFC West, is it that good? This is one of my

this goes hand in hand with my Raiders over. The Denver Broncos are not winning 10 games under nine and a half. I love this. It's pretty low on my list, so I'm fine with you taking it and taking more of the heat from the Broncos fans who are. They're just a vicious people out there. Yeah, well, listen,

be happy you live in one of the most beautiful cities in the world. Be happy that you get to watch Nikola Yokic play basketball. There's a lot of things. to be happy about that you live in Denver. But this, I could go quite some time about the lunacy of how overvalued I find this team to be. First of all, everyone is, everyone sends me these just glowing dissertation, Sean Payton gives on Bo Necks.

And all I do is, I just Google News. timeline, this time seven years ago, six years ago, and five years ago when I was subjected to in the same off seasons of dissertations about how, hey, Steve Young, you know, he reminds me a lot of, Taysam Hill. Tase him like that. And again, I don't think Bo Nix is Taysam Hill, but I think he's closer to Tasem Hill than the guy Sean Payton's trying to convince me he's close to, which is Drew Brees. I also have never seen a team that got, went 0 and 7 against the other AFC good teams last year, unless we're including the Chiefs backups.

And then you can't even say they were peaking at the end of the year. They played Buffalo and got curb stumped. So, Nick, how did they get to 10 wins? Well, let's go through it just quickly. And again, I think the Broncos defense should be really good. I am I nervous about the injury concerns for the two big pieces from San Francisco, of course. But the quarterbacks that this Denver Broncos team beat last year, after having a great game against Baker, were the following. Aaron Rogers, Aiden O'Connell, whoever the hell was starting for the Saints last year, I don't remember.

Was it car? He's not in football anymore, right? bright it was it bright the panthers quarterback in week eight bryce broncos was rattler i think on a prime time game oh the saints was saints was rattler that's right it wasn't corner that is correct um kirk cousins right before they pulled the rip court the raiders again i assume o'connell the brown starting quarterback in week 13 last year let's check and see who that stud was um it was jamis uh The cult quarterback in week 15, is he a starter anymore? No, I'm sorry.

That was Anthony Richardson. And then Chad Henney. So you beat two guys who are currently starters, one of which is 42 now. And did you just say they played against Chad Henney? And everyone's like, and I'm wrong. Chad Henney's not the backup anymore. Is Carson Wentz? It was Carson Went.

I apologize. I was, you know, I was a lonely man once on Chad Henney. Island. I was like, he had one of the greatest. I was like, I think he's been out of the league. Chief's history. Anything is possible to scramble on third and 16 against the Browns in the playoffs. But and then I, I just, the only thing Sean Payton has enjoyed more than cultivating

friends in the media and, and talking up Bo Nix is reminding people how close he was to drafting Patrick Mahomes and telling Seth Wickersham about his, his, his, his, proprietary algorithm of evaluating quarterbacks, which is just completion percentage minus bad plays. And so, color me, skeptical, that the Broncos are a true contender. I will go under.

I love all that. And they were very, you know, I made a pretty long list. Broncos under nine and a half was on it, though. It was towards the bottom. But it was on it. Yeah, part of it, do I have the guts? because I do like looking at offensive line plus defensive line

and just like that, that's where you find a lot of underrated teams. It's why I'm going to choose my next over. I might as well just say it. It's the Jets, which is going to be an over going high. But that's a reason to like the Broncos, by the way, is that, man, their lines really do look pretty darn good. And that is Sean Payton's secret sauce,

I think more than his algorithm. That's so funny. Yeah, I think he always has a good offensive line. he's hired good offensive line coaches. They've just found a way to maximize that unit in a way. Very few teams have. So that makes me worried, but I am under on them too. I love that.

All right, let's go to the Jets. I've been saying it all's off-season. I've got to just like stick with what I actually feel. I thought the craziest thing when the total still came, when they came out was the gap between the Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets. I just don't get it. And I just think these teams are all closer than you'd expect. I think the Jets have a very good offensive line.

I think they could have a pretty good defensive line. I like the changes in terms of Aaron Glenn becoming their head coach. I think Robert Sala was a little overrated. I know the defense played pretty well for him there, but the talent on defense is still there. And five and a half is so low in that division. You look at their schedule. The AFC schedules out of the division is ideal.

And you get four games against the Dolphins and the Patriots, which I think are winnable, at least to split those games for the Jets. I feel good about five and a half I think it's one of the it's one of the dumbest things in sports is nothing harder to do you know the win a game in the NFL it's actually not that hard to win about

six games in the NFL you don't have to be that good you just need to get a good schedule and have some good vibes in the building and some talent and they definitely have that so I like the Jets to go like seven and ten I feel good about over five and a half so listen here's what I

like about the Jets chances of just having a normal fine below average year, which is what you're describing. This is the first season that players and coaches on the Jets have been able to operate day to day to day with the media and then week to week without every single thing being a referendum on, what about the quarterback? Because going from Darnold to Zach to Aaron, everybody was just an NPC

in the development of that guy's movie. And so I thought it was really smart of Aaron Glenn to go like not only move off Aaron, but to also pick as banal a quarterback as you could find in fields. Like listen, nobody's really going. Nobody's like, Oh, man, is he the answer?

It's not about... I think Nate Tice is still there. Oh, really? I don't really know that. And there are Fields fans out there. Yes, but still, but it's not... Everyone else can just go about their business. And it's like he's building the team

and then they'll address the quarterback, which is not a good way to win a championship, but it might be a good way to get things going. So I, I'm fine with that. I don't even remember where I had them. I also think the, that doesn't matter. So I do think though, my only concern is I do think that they're probably the last place team in that division. But now some would say the dolphins, the floor could fall out, which is fair.

But yeah, I don't mind the, I don't mind over five and a half. Like you shouldn't. I can't do, you know, actual bets like you. But whatever their playoff odds are, like I would like. the value on that. I don't think it's that crazy to imagine them as like the 17. You just talked about culture change. I think they're going to be a little more like you think the Raiders are going to be where just culture, which is really important. They have a clear like person in charge. Usually it's ownership. It gets messy. Douglas and Salah were kind of feckless. Like this is Aaron Glenn's

organization. I mean, have you heard a word out of their GM? Do you even know who it is Darren Mojee, who has no presence whatsoever either? And like it's clearly just a Glenn hire and it's all about Aaron Glenn and I'm kind of buying into to just make them fun. Can I do a can I can we have a quick sidebar conversation? I want to get through these picks but yes. Just very quick. If the Jets do make the playoffs

I think that would probably mean the Patriots don't. And if the Jets make the playoffs and the Patriots don't, I just would like your great producer Eric to just cut together a few of your kind of almost just throw in asides over the summer

about how obviously great Drake May is. Like it's not even worth discussing. Like I have, you know, I'll be like the, and whether it was in your tears list when you argued with Sando, it's like it's just,

I think in a courtroom, if I were the other attorney, I would say objection, your honor. Facts not yet in evidence. I like, and I like Drake May. I think that's fair. I had regrets, not regrets, but second thoughts. After we did that, QB Tiers, it was like,

am I put in the cart before the horse a little bit on Drake May? Well, I mean, if they finish third in the division this year, then I'm just saying we need to look at the cart and the horse together. All right. My next one, I'm going to go with another under. There's two I'm looking at. And so I'm going to be strategic on which one I go. with, I'm going to go with one that I think you could take, the Niners under 10 and

the half. So I, this will be from a talent perspective, the worst defense they've had there since Shanahan first got there. Now, I think Sala will do a nice job with, you know, taking over the coordinator spot. I don't doubt that in the least. However, aside from Bosa and Warner, it's a bunch of real question marks on the defensive side of the ball. I, the injuries at wide receiver at this point are almost cartoonish. And I now let some quarterbacks can take a receiving core of Skymore and Marquezvalda as Scantling and win multiple Super Bowls.

But Brock Purdy is not one of them. And so that worries me. Christian McCaffrey, when he's out there, is a top three back in the league, but the winnie's out there part is a concern. And like Trent Williams, they can't win without Trent Williams. And Trent Williams' backup signed with Kansas City. So like that's, you know, and he's the oldest tackle in the league. All of that plus Kyle not so subtly lowering the expectations for everyone and all of that.

the fact I couldn't I'm stunned at this number that it's 10 and a half and what what everybody argues is the schedule and my counter to that is simply what if the Niners are this soft spot in some other team's schedule and and so I just the fact that this team in theory could win the division, make the playoffs, and the under still hit, I'll take the under 10 and a half. Yeah, this is one, I don't know what happens for you because, you know, you're on three hours a day now and you got your YouTube show. So, I mean, first of all, you're doing the nicest thing possible. We're not, we've never even met in real life. This is only the second time you said, but the, the nicest thing you can do for a friend is you're giving me more air time in a day that you're doing

like hours and hours. But what happens when you just don't know? No, you don't have a take. That's where I'm at with this entire division with the 49ers. I've gone back and forth in my mind all division. If I had to make one right now, I probably would go with you and under. But it certainly wouldn't make my top 10. And I won't pat myself on the back or feel bad about anything that happens in this division. Because I don't have a take.

I really don't. I don't know. I don't have a strong take on anything that could happen here. You could tell me anything. I wouldn't be surprised. yeah i that's how i kind of feel about the cardinals and seahawks yes i do uh i do feel strongly about the rams that if stafford's healthy they're going to be excellent yes if stafford's healthy part is such a you know huge you know dark cloud hanging over all right i will i will go next

got your niners you did not take one from me i'm going to go cowboys over seven and a half you're reacting like I took it from you or that you think it's a dumb pick I love this pick I could have taken it even higher they're in a division where I think the commanders are overrated that's one where I've seen enough of your social clips where I know we're on different sides of things there

and so I think the commanders are overrated giants we'll see I mean they're fine man they have DAC Prescott on their team a quarterback that I absolutely trust a lot of talent on that offensive line that's young. I am buying the propaganda that Brian Schottenheimer will be a better head coach than he was a coordinator. Got a little bit of his dad.

I think he's got that organization in terms of his coaching staff and the players kind of tuning out the noise as well as he as anyone possibly could. And ultimately, I think they still have the bones of a team that won 12 games, you know, three years in a row with a pretty mediocre head coach. love their defensive line. I mean, I think it could be the best edge group in the league, assuming Michael Parsons is going to be on the team. And I am assuming that. I know you talk about it every day and stuff, but just history tells us he will be on that team. It would be a blow to my pick if he's not on the team. But it's not eight and a half. It's at seven and a half.

And I feel great. I think they're going to win 10 games. I have them in the playoffs. I like the Cowboys this year. Wow. I probably should have taken them earlier, to be honest. No, you didn't need to because I was going to go under. Go for it. We should have a challenge. You could tell you. Well, here's the problem. We are, we're, I'm working off.

Can I say the sports book that I got my numbers? You can say anything you want. Yes. We haven't. I don't know. And the, I'm working off the draft king's numbers. And so the draft king's total was at eight and a half with a lot of juice on the under.

So you know what I mean? So that's why you. It's sort of in between. Yes. The real, back in the day, some win totals landed on even numbers. You know what I mean? So the real Cowboys total,

if it was 10 years ago, would have been set at 8. If you want to step up here, make it 8 and we go on different sides. It's just a fun little challenge here. I'm happy to do that. Yeah, sure, deal. That's fine.

Yeah. So no action if they go 8 and 9. I kind of screwed you if they go 8 and 9 because you would already land grab the 7 and 1 half. No, I think this could be a year from hell for them. I'm very, your, I respect your football opinion so much that your opinion of their de-line is making me reconsider my opinion of their due line because I look at the Cowboys

as a team that with Micah Parsons should have an okay defense and without Micah Parsons might be one of the worst defenses in football. now it sounds like you feel very differently than me about that um and i also think the i think myka going to get this second opinion on his back is uh not so subtle shot across the bow of we will miss games yeah it's a little worrisome i agree and so there's that i also i just don't see how they dack's going to have to have a phenomenal season for them to win. And I don't know, like George Hickens is to me, I put him in the kind of the bucket of

player, which is in leads my, he's one of the reasons that in professional football more than any other sport, I believe talent can be wildly overrated. Like I hear so much, the guy's got so much talent. like football is too hard and too brutal and too many other things that if talent's the only thing you can lead with that I don't necessarily trust you and so I the Schottenheimer piece concerns me I just never like the hey if you didn't get that job who else was going to give it to you and the answer to shoot nobody like I got to tell you I had that that always the cowboys though they're just they're just they're

just different, but what they're not in general is consistently bad. I mean, certainly in the DAC or Tony Romo era. Like, give me the back-to-back lousy years out of the Cowboys. I hear all that. I think they are among the highest variance defenses in the league. I'm counting a lot on Matt Iber Fluse to like get that system and kind of put a top over it by, you know, I think it might be ugly early. They have a couple really talented cornerbacks in Trayvon Diggs and and Chavon Ravelle, like that we just don't know. Injury-wise, they, will be run on, like in the interior. It does not look good.

But that edge group, if you just go through it, Sam Williams is really talented coming off in ACL, Marsha Neelan, Dante Fowler, Micah Parsons, Donovan Azaraku. Five deep, that's as good as it. That's, he was good last year. He was that literally the commander is probably second best pass. I'm just saying he's like a rotational guy. Okay, that, I don't know if that counts is one of your.

Yeah, that counts. You did Cowboys over. I did Cowboys under two men. The one thing I'm rooting for now more than anything. thing is the Cowboys not to land on eight. That'll just bother me so much if you win because of that. No, I won't win because of that. It'd be a push.

Sure, but I mean like the overall competition between the two of us. Somehow that push makes a difference. I'll go commanders under nine and a half. I'm not being strategic. Also, we only have like 10 minutes left, so I should get the ones out that I want. Because I know you like the commanders a lot this year. I think there's a lot of ways that this could go really wrong. obviously it's tough to bet against such a or pick because I don't bet against a quarterback this good

in Jaden Daniels but it is going to be his second year in the league so it's not the longest track record of success, a unique offense and I just think the defense could be really poor the skill position depth very poor and I think there's just a lot of ways it could go wrong and they could be a losing team. So I'm probably not quite as high on the commanders as you think. I'm sure what you saw was. I saw you had them ahead of the Eagles. Well, so, yeah, so I had the commanders and the Eagles both 11 and 6. And in my make-believe standings and my predictions, am I going to actually figure out who would win the make-believe tiebreaker or does tie go to more interesting? It went to more.

If I haven't both 11 and 6 and Eagles fans hate me already, might as well be like, and you know what? When I've crunched the numbers, the commanders based on strength of scheduled tiebreaker, they're going to win the division. Um, and so my, I have a bias against skinny football players, particularly the quarterback position. And because of that, I was a Jaden skeptic and he ended up like very wrong on Lamar, you know, the, I, I mean, I've been the most right person in sports media about Lamar Jackson. And one day people will admit it. Um, and there's nothing wrong with being Aaron judge, man.

All time great, get a statue one day. There's nothing wrong with it. uh and the and lamar's not skinny you've seen lamar's neck it goes past his ears uh i was worried about jaden's ability to stay healthy and last year i got to admit when he got what obviously injuries the the worst thing you can do in sports takery is be like i think the guy's super talented but i'm worried he won't stay healthy because it's it's a bummer of a take and if you are correct you don't get to like be like told you like there's ever like a moment just keep it in your pocket keep it in your and but he did get hit last year he did get the bruised ribs and it didn't

matter like he had the brief moment where his play dipped a bit he is super talented and i love how they added to the offensive line and i think that they're patchworking the defense um so i I do like the commanders. I'm not a commander's going to the Super Bowl guy, but I wouldn't have gone under. All right, I'm going to go. It's my turn now. I know.

I'm actually surprised I went with that so high. That was a spiteful just to get a saucy pick in there. No, that's good. Let's go fast here. We'll do, we'll get. This is my, uh, this is the last year I can ride with this guy in this team.

If they don't, if he doesn't come through for me. And I'm going with the prince that was promised. and the national jaguars over seven and a half this kills me this this shows i shouldn't have taken cowboys or commandant because in my heart i believe that more than the picks i've already done i don't know why it was lower on my list i'm looking at my stupid list i'm with you terrible move by you um listen man i still believe in Trevor lawrence um but man he's got to validate it and i don't like when people say he never has like it's all based on college year two for him he was good

the following year they started eight and three and then he got maimed in that monday night football game they didn't have a cart to take him off the field and poor guy hasn't been the same ever since hopefully he is this year you are i think correctly super high on travis hunter i think for trevor's case it's really nice that he seems to be they're going to lean more offense than defense with him. Brian Thomas Jr.'s excellent. And it seemed like they were just done with the Doug Peterson experience. And so I think that we talked about how the cults and the weakness there,

I think in that division, could they win it? Sure. Would I be, I'd be devastated if they don't get to eight wins. I think they can get to 10. So I will go over Jacksonville. I love that. Sometimes you don't really know what your heart truly feels until you're just like doing these shows. And truly, I think I would have the Jaguars in my top five or so.

I'm in on that. So I got one of your best bets and you got one of mine. Yeah, because you got Colts under and I got Jags. And with that in mind, I'm going against what I have written down and I'm taking Saints under five and a half before anyone else does just in case. I just feel like, man, if they got to five wins, I would say, Bravo, Kellyn Moore. I just good job I just think this team stinks I think they could be two and 15

I went to camp and I was actually like man their defense is kind of spicy and isn't that you're so surprised by that no I well I just you have a soft spot in your heart for Louisiana and for New Orleans and here's the thing though

Saints fans they don't want this but they kind of want this so I think if they get along the journey I won't even feel bad Rudy against them because hashtag arch my back they want the scenario where they're just getting in position for Archie Manning

who you know they believe will only come out in the draft if the Saints have the one pick which is probably wishful thinking and stupid but yeah I would say I would say is it not on the board that the opposite's true the only way he doesn't come out

I'm going to go Bengals under nine and a half bold on my very long list i agree but wouldn't have been something i would have picked i just i don't understand why it's going to be different than last year and the answer can be well the defense won't be quite as bad and the offense probably won't be quite as good i think the bengal's offensive line is one of the more under discussed big question marks of the season I think that the defense is, I, listen, as a chiefs fan, I'm glad they got rid of Luana Rumo. Like he, I understand that he struggled there last year.

He sure seemed in the playoffs to give Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen trouble, which if I'm the Bengals, that's actually all I want for my D coordinator. You can do what the bills do, which is have defensive coordinators that are unbelievable throughout the regular season and then can't stop a good quarterback. in the playoffs or what the Bengals had, which is the opposite. And so I also fundamentally disagree with how they have decided to build this team. And I think that they are, I think that we are staring at a again, I understand he's arguably the greatest coach of all time.

But, so not to disrespect Sean Payton's tenure with the Saints, but a similar run of when they, Breeze had three consecutive years where he averaged 5,000 yards passing and they went 7 and 9 every single year. And I think that unlike Sean, I don't think Zach Taylor survives it. I think they missed the playoffs again and I think Zach Taylor's fired.

Yeah, I'm torn on this one, but ultimately I agree. It's not that different than my Colts pick. It's larger than just the players involved. It's the organization. It's the structure of it all that just that's going to sink them. ultimately I agree. All right. I want to have an odd number. We can't we can't be tied. So let's go I'll do two more. You go one more and then that'll put us at nine each. Can I just ask a quick

question? Yeah. I know that math is not a strong suit of this show. How on earth does whether we each have eight, nine or ten impact whether or not we tie? Well, because if we each that's not how it's going to work. I'm an idiot. I'm an idiot. Well, you know. Why don't we both? I was thinking we're going against each other. Yeah, but we're... We got a lot of shows, you know. I get it.

Listen, man, why don't you do an eighth and then we will have done 16 to tap the league? No, that's perfect. Man, this is tough. And I'll just give some freebies to the people out there, the ones I'm considering.

The dolphins under eight and a half feels like it's too obvious for everyone. and yet I do like it. The Giants over five and a half takes a little guts, but I do believe in it. I think they're going to be better than people think. The Ravens over 11.5 doesn't take a lot of guts, but I do think they'll get there.

But I think just for consistency, all three years on these over-unders, I have taken the bears under. And this is only going, we only had three or four picks each year. And they were my first pick, I think, Like last year, last year you were correct. I know, nobody was more.

Every year I've been correct. They've been under every year. Nobody was more wrong about the bears in the national media than me last year. And you were about as right as anybody. So Ty, and you said in your case, Ty goes to what's the saucy your pick? To me, the bear, just consistency for the sake of the show, going bears under for the fourth straight year,

even though I do think they will be better, eight and a half in that division where I like the Vikings and the lions quite a bit. I think he'll have done a fine job, Ben Johnson, if they win seven or eight games. They're not as talented. I don't think as people think, certainly on defense. And so I'll go under bears. Okay, that's perfect. I would have gone over.

So that's perfect. We did it. That's great. The only man who could just slide in an amazing joke about, you know, the 49ers aren't the type of team that could win with Skymore and MVS at wide receiver and just keep on going. Like, I hope that was off the dome. one of the most talented guys in the business. Nick Wright, appreciate you. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Love the show. The only thing I don't like about coming on it is it takes.

Now tomorrow, I got nothing to listen to. See you later, Greg. Thanks. All right. We will see you, Nick Wright, and saying goodbye as we hit the music and tell you a little bit about what's coming up later this week. 40s and Free Agents on Friday will be in your feed. Patrick, Jordan, and I will be over the weekend. our reasons for joy in 2025 and then a couple season preview episodes with Daniel Jeremiah then we are on to our week one schedule the over-unders are out football is back this is an iHeart podcast