NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 1 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: September 5, 2025

Football's most reliable picks show is back!! Gregg Rosenthal welcomes NFL Network's own Cynthia Frelund to NFL Daily for the best (scientifically supported!) point spread picks for week 1 of the 2025 NFL regular season. Episode includes picks for: Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Chicago Bears New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-6) Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)  + Wildcards!!NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're running it back. I'm Greg Rosenthal here with my friend and defending champion of all pickers, Cynthia Freeland. We're in the Chris Wesleying podcast studio for the first time this season picking game. And the first time I can officially congratulate you on not just beating me in this picks competition that we're going to do throughout the course of the season where we're really teammates because we're going to help out our listeners. But the woman who picked the Super Bowl and the champion before last season started, Eagles over Chiefs. I mean, what other show has someone that has done that on it? Only the shows was Cynthia Freeland.

Hey, even a blind squirrel, find a nut. no you've got the computer model you've got it all that's pretty amazing this year i also made the dogs pick because i was curious i picked the top my top eight from my model and then i put a snack for each one and i'll tell you who each dog picked too okay tell you right now what it is we're that that's good to know uh and yes you can check out like all of cynthia's pick yeah on her show numbers game which is on her youtube channel she has a new podcast too with logan ryan which is very cool and you can watch us on nfl network game day view we're back Every Friday.

We got like new multiple airings. There's like one in the morning on Friday, too. I love it. So you get all our picks here. Here we pick our three favorite selections. Yep. Against the spread. That's right.

Of the week and we will keep track of our records and hopefully help you out. And I will give you the first pick of the year. Well, the first pick of the year will go to the game that has played the last on the first weekend of the year. Okay. Okay. So it is played at Soldier Field and Minnesota comes to town. and you know Brian Flores, my friend from college. He's got this really good defense.

It's real sneaky. They do a lot of weird stuff with like, are you going to blitz? Are you going to, there's a dissimulator pressure? What are we going to do? But you know who's not going to be tricked? Ben Johnson? That's right.

Caleb Williams? That's right. I think we get an upset. Wow. Starts strong here. Vikings are favored by one and a half. And I have the Bears winning. On the road.

And you have the Bears not only covering, but winning. Outright winner. Straight up. Not going to be one of my. three picks, but long-time listeners of the show. And by that, I mean last season, which was the first. We'll remember I write down a lot of picks. I have some scribbles at the bottom of one that didn't quite make the cut.

I remember the beginning of the season, the scribbles were actually beating the actual. They were on fire. And we're going to keep track of them this year once again. But my Vikings pick was one that, you know, didn't make the cut. Because I personally like the Vikings overall as a team. And this is one thing I think players that in people are picking games. this weekend have to be wary of. Just because I think the Vikings are a better team

overall over the course of the season than the Bears don't necessarily that doesn't mean that they should week in week one. And plus I could be basing it on false assumptions. They might not be better than the Bears over the course of the season. Actually, who does your overall win totals have being better? Oh, it has the Vikings.

Now, this is a one time beginning of the season trick play situation. Because in any game, you know, you could like in division, these division rivals, here are my two problems with the Vikings that drive the Bears win. Number one, we've been talking about how the Bears have remade their own line. We're still questioning who the tackles, blah, blah, blah.

But you know what? We don't really talk about the fact that J.J. McCarthy, who's coming back from injury, played like a hot second in a pregame. He's a rookie without being a rookie, right? And he gets a new O line too, and they're remade. And we don't know if they're great. They could be, but we don't know. We haven't seen it either.

So I'm not sold on what that old. No, Jordan Addison. Yeah, we have Adam Thieland that came back to town, but he came back to town last week. You're telling me that that chemistry is going to be fully formed already. Your girl says Ben Johnson has enough tricks in his bag to make this one better for Caleb Boy. You're making me worried.

You've got some numbers that are probably put into the big model that support that Ben Johnson had Brian Flores' number. You can look at all the great stats of the Vikings over the last few years. Imagine how great they'd be if you took out those lions, because the lions were averaging about 30, 35 points a game on it. I looked hoping for, you know, back in my pick the other way and it was the opposite. They cooked them game after. But over the course of the season, I have the Vikings finishing ahead of the bear.

I just think this is the week one. It's week one. Let's have overreactions. This is one with you. Okay. I'm starting out spicy. Ooh, I started spicy. I'm going with an upset.

Wasn't spicy enough for you? That was very spicy. Okay. I'm not saying, I wasn't making a judgment on your pick. I'm just saying, I'm starting out spicy form already. Ready, Greg? I'm going Giants plus six against the commanders on the road this week. I looked at this game and I was tempted to just pick an upset.

Week one is a liar very often. It's crazy. And it just wouldn't shock me if the Giants come out and win this game. But getting six points, it just set off alarm bells. A division game, which is off these two staffs that, you know, they got to know each other a little bit last year. and the only one that I think notably improved their defense, maybe overall team in my mind, is the Giants.

And then I looked at last year, and those were two of the games for what it's worth, that Brian Daible and Daniel Jones had two of their best games of the season in terms of EPA per play. I think two of their three best games of the season were against Washington. I remember those games well. The Giants moved the ball well. In neither of those games last year did the commanders cover six points.

They were close games. And ultimately, I think the Giants improved more this off season. I don't think the gap between them over the course of the season is as big as all the statistical models have. So I could be very wrong. Maybe yours disagrees with me. But they have Washington backing up their season from a year ago. I think the Giants are going to be much better.

I think the commanders are going to be worse. And so I'm going Giants. I think the Giants are going to be a team that ends up last in their division that we're like, this team is so much better than their... because their schedule is a frickin' nightmare. We've talked about that since May when the schedule release, when we had this giant schedule release show. Woo, the schedule's out.

Anyways, but we've been talking about it since then, and I agree with you that they've gotten considerably better. My problem right now is I'm looking at the injury report, and I'm seeing Andrew Thomas. He is there, yes. Again, it starts what's going on with this O line. That is just where I have some fear there, and that's what keeps you for.

I don't, I actually, I'm with you. like six feels like that's just a that's an annoying number like if it were a different number I'd feel differently about it but I feel like it could they could keep it closer I just feel like I've seen this this playbook before where the gents have a really good defensive front but then the O line is like a big question mark and I run is Malik neighbors injury real like is it going to actually ham is it going to have freaked me out here Andrew Thomas I'm just I just don't like when I see an when I've had O line questions and I see an O line questionable to play that's a big deal.

It just makes me like, he is maybe the most important player on the entire team, Andrew Thomas. I totally agree with that. And he's coming back from a really serious injury. And we don't know for sure that he's playing this week. It sounded like it was trendy in the right direction. I'm not totally afraid of the commander's pass rush.

Dicey. But it's definitely a little dicey. What I'm counting on is Abdul Carter and Brian Burns in that pass rush getting after. I mean, that's going to be great. The commanders. They've, they've added, you know, Laramie Tuntle to the mix, and they've added a first-round pick so that in Josh Connerly. So that'll be an interesting matchup.

Let's go to your second pick. Okay. I think you and I are on the opposite sides of this game. But I, the Sunday nighter. Okay. I think Buffalo wins. Wow, that's one of your three. Mm-hmm.

How did you choose which of these three to pick? I asked someone with really good hair. Okay. Because the guy with the good hair, the guy with the good hair, I'm like, let's just, I don't, week one, I don't have any, you know what's weird is like I try to, every year got to clean the slate. I don't have any preconceived notions

about any teams this year. Try to go in with like, what do the facts say? Who are they objective? Like, because obviously we all have things that we like and we don't like. We have people we like and we like and we don't like. So I try to like really just wash that all away.

I do like the Bills. I like the Ravens too, though. So what I'm, I'm here. But a home underdog that the Bills are right now. A home underdog. Yes. Yeah.

It's one and a half for the Ravens right now. It started out as the Bills is my favorite. And now why do I think? why do I think the bills? Well, one, I really think that the ability to control the ball. Usually we talk about balls. We're talking about ball control offense. Well, I'm actually thinking the bills might take that tact this time. And Josh Allen himself, 27 rushing touchdowns in the past two seasons. That's a lot. That's a lot of them. And I'm looking, I was watching the O line play. That's one of the only things from preseason that you can sort of see. I think Osiris Torrance might be even better than he was.

I think this O line is, I don't know who the offense. Pass catchers that they're really going to have to, you know, this Ravens defense is going to have to account for what, who are they scared up? He was coming off an injury. Sounds like he'll play, but are you. Dionne Coleman has had a good camp, but I saw him pop up on the injury report too. So, but maybe some of that we've seen this before where Josh Allen, you're like, I don't know he's going to throw it to.

And then suddenly it's like Josh Allen in a cloud of dust, but seven points or six points. We'll see how this goes. All I'm saying, Cynthia, is. You picked the freaking Super Bowl with, and not only that, the champion, with an Eagles team last year that if people remember going into the year was not a popular pick whatsoever, not just to represent the NFC, but to make it far in the playoffs. So you've done that. You did great with your picks a year ago. And you're giving our producer, you're mentioning Chris with the great hair in the back. Chris has great hair.

22 years old. He's rocking the- I don't know if Chris has a girlfriend, but if you were going to get a girlfriend based on lettuce, Chris would be like, of the heat. Okay, he's got the floppy air. I appreciate that. Yeah. Yeah. But he's not like a football expert at this point. You are, Cynthia. And you've got all your picks. And you hand it over to him and ask him what's what he likes out of that. I gave him all the numbers. I gave him all the numbers. All the numbers. I stand by all. I love all of my. Okay. In week one, I'll buy that. I want Cynthia picking out her favorites. We've been thinking about. We've been thinking about this for

so freaking long. We've had these, we've had this week one slate. And then, oh, Micah Parsons. and then everyone loses their mind and picks green to win the Super Bowl and I was like all right let's just let's actually do the math and relax here

and then everybody hate did you pick the Packers no God I hope so I did not pick the Packer for the season or for this week let's just go there now okay

one of my three favorite pick oh dear God because I didn't have to hide under the tape I stayed away from trying to get two into these week one lines I pretty much looked at them

fresh for the first time recently I think I had a vague idea who's playing but I didn't know the lines when I saw saw that the lions, your lions, are two and a half point underdogs to the Green Bay Packers. And then I thought about the last four years. Hey, who said your whole era of Farve to Rogers is over? You think you're going to go win another Super Bowl with Aaron Rogers?

No, how about we beat you in week 18 in a game that supposedly didn't even matter to us to end that whole Aaron Rogers era? How about that? We're the Detroit Lions. How about the one time you beat us? And I don't know if people remember this. The one time the Packers beat them recently. And the Lions have won six out of seven. The one time they beat him recently,

Matt Lafleur in the post game, I think it was on NBC or something. I think it was Thanksgiving. He got all, like, chesty of like, hey, people saying we're not tough enough, you know, that we're not a tough team. Like, we're tough and we ran the ball. I felt in that moment it always stuck with me

that he was sort of like his masculinity was threatened by Dan Campbell and he didn't like that the lions or maybe just he felt like his team's masculinity was threatened by the lions getting pushed around. Hey, we're the tough guys. You know what's happened since then? They haven't won another game.

You know, they got swept last year too while the lions were all sorts of banged up. I love it. I just think the lions are a better team and they have a real track record here against this Packers team. I think recency bias sometimes afflicts people and because I do, I will say,

I'm going to put Jeff Halfley, the defensive coordinator, on the short list of guys who come the end of the season, where we're like, who's getting a new head coaching job? Oh, and two against the Lions, though, to be fair. I'm, I'm just saying in general, Jeff Hathley, I think he did a good job of reconfiguring the defense in a way that, I mean, there were second in simulated pressure. So they're doing some modern things to help out.

They won't have to simulate so pressure this year. Once Micah's back or his back is okay, like vertebrae epidural, these things sound very, very scary to me, but I'm just saying in general, we remember, the lions also got a lot of their pieces back as well. One named Aidan Hutchinson, just a reminder. It's not like the lions are going to be playing without, at the end of the season,

they were playing with like 19 people on IR. Right. The Packers got Parsons, but the Lions got Hutchinson. And the Lions also got back. People that know each other have played together. Micah just came in the building. And he rotates in.

He's not a down-to-down player. It's just going to, like, I think it takes a hot second for everything to come together. I understand defense easier. Go get ball. I understand the mission statement of Micah Parsons' position. But I think in general, it is a bit more complicated than that for how the whole defense works together. And they still have corners that are, Jair Alexander ain't walking through that door.

You know, and as good as we saw Xavier McKinney B. last year with all of his turnovers, turnovers aren't necessarily like, there's some luck involved in there. You know, you don't, you can't say year over a year that just because they had a lot of interceptions last year, they're going to get a lot of interceptions. That's not how that works. So, you know, I'm, I'm, I'm just saying to me, it's, you have to remember, offense plays the defense, offense plays the defense. Like, you know, you don't, it doesn't work.

Like, when they say quarterbacks play, I'm like, no, they don't. Right. Well, but then when you hear quarterbacks talk, they always say, like, oh, when, when I'm playing that quarterback, I'm watching him and I know I got to play better that day, like Joe Burr. Like, so they get it in their own head that they're going. They get it in their head, but they're not like facing them. Right.

I think the line's defense is going. to be significantly better than a year ago. But I'm glad you brought up, like, the cornerback position for the Packers. So Nate Hobbs, he's coming off of an injury. He was their big free agent signing. Is he all right? Right. He's, I think, going to play in this game, but he's barely practiced over last month.

That's what I'm saying. Kishon Nixon, like, he's okay. I think the other starting cornerback for this team, like the nickel is Javon Bullard, Carrington Valentine is still there. It's like, it's not a great group, whereas I actually like the lines on defense more. And that all gets me to the point that I really want to make about this game because I do feel strong.

This is probably by number one pick. I just think that it's the right time. Like, they're getting them at the right time of the season. Yes. I think of all the injuries that... 100%. Like, this is the week to play them. This is the week that you have to...

All the injuries that they had no receivers on the field like throughout training camp. And they all are coming back. I don't think Jaden Reed necessarily is. But they didn't practice. And then, you know who practices harder than any team? and always comes out really strong early. It's the Detroit Lions.

Like, I heard this story from Colton Pouncy who covers the athletic about, like Tim Patrick, he was in this first camp with the Lions and he was like, man, like, you know, like Brian Branch is coming out here, like hitting, like, I just think they run a tougher camp.

I think they're often very ready for week one. We saw them, did they beat the Chiefs? Yeah, they did. They beat the Chiefs in Week 1. Like, I just. Coming off a Super Bowl. Remember it was the opener when the last time,

anyways. Whereas the Packers are not. that team that, you know, practices tackling as much, plays in the preseason. So I also think it's just a perfect time and the lions overall are a little healthier. I think this game is a huge deal maker. Like, everyone's like, the Packers wouldn't win the division. The Packers won the Super Bowl. The Packers win total went up one whole game to surpass the Lions.

And on one person being trained. I'm like, wait, wait. If they play each other week one, that game matters a lot. It does, is it really? Anyways, point being is I'm not, I'm, you know, as a Lions fan, I am beholden by, you know, everything that is Michigan in the world to say, like, I, I have fear in my heart. And I, I, I have fear, but I think that this. But your model, my model has, my model says the Lions win.

Okay. I love that too. So you agree with me. All right. Let's do one more pick. Yeah. Your last one. Okay.

Where are you on Tampa Bay in Atlanta? Because I have Tampa Bay winning this one. That, I mean, that is one of many where I don't have a strong feeling, but I did take Tampa Bay. I bet I buy more than two one and a half I would have them covering

I'm with you on that it wouldn't that one just seems like such a crazy matchup that I'd be afraid but you're going with a lot of the tough games well the reason

one of the reasons that this game to me would have probably been on my list even if I didn't even if I didn't allow the best outsource it

if this works then we can think about the strategy more seriously if it doesn't he takes the blame so it works that well no I mean

listen we put it on all our picks anyways but when I'm looking at the bucks in a week one, to me, it comes down to who do I trust a quarterback more? And I trust Baker Mayfield. Now, I know Tristan Worf's isn't there. I would, I would prefer him to be there. But, and usually my model loves the strategy of like doubling down in a position. And they kind tripled down on pass rush to draft Jaylon. They drafted it like 15, 26, whatever. They drafted

it. Yes. Yeah. So, but it's weird because my stuff doesn't love James Pierce. Also, they're not listed as starters right now. Jalen Walker had a slow camp. Weird. So I think that's an advantage, especially when you consider on the other side, Caleb McGarry not being there. That's a problem. It's a big one. And Michael Penn. I still think Bejohn's going to have a nice game for your fantasy purposes. Do not worry. But I think that this one belongs to the quarterback that has the track record and the defensive mind, meaning the defensive coach, meaning Todd Bulls, that can stop the things they're trying to throw them. I'm with you. I think they're going to have

a defensive improvement this year. The Bucks did not have a great season last year. I think the roster, I think Todd Bowles, it's all going to be better. You almost want Kirk Cousins in this game. He was so good against the Buccaneers a year ago. I mean, he had like 500-something yards. So I'm with you on that, but you're bold. You're taking some of the ones I'd be most great to take.

Let's go. My third pick. Fortune favors the bold, Greg. I'm going Jaguars. Go bigger than that. Who cares about the Jags over the Carolina Panthers? Come on. Dude, what does that even mean?

Go bigger. Every pick is beat. There is no bigger. There is no bigger. I feel good about it. Jaguars minus three and a half is my pick. You're not going to bully me. The point is to get them right.

It's not to like pick like games that the most people are going to watch. Now, the only thing that bothers me here is this was three all week. And when we got down to do that. That hook will get you. I saw it went to three and a half, but I don't care. I just think they're a way more complete team. I think they have way more defensive line talent. And I think they have ultimate.

It feels like you're being a bully. Way more guys in the secondary. Why is that being a bully? It's the Jacksonville Jaguars. They haven't won a lot of games over the last couple of years. But I do think. Brian Thomas Jr. on that team. They're going to unveil Travis Hunter

and you just look at the defensive talent overall for the Panthers. And I just don't think it stacks up. When I looked at these two depth charts, I think there's a lot of mismatches. The Jaggores are a team, I think, is going to be great this year in terms of versus like their win total. For instance, I really like they're over seven and a half. So I'm going to stay consistent.

I think go Jaguars. Okay. What does that even mean go bigger? Like, what's bigger? Like, one where you're like, like, it's a little more like, like a juicier line.

Like, there's a lot of close lines this week. So like maybe, you know, like what's one that's in the, just give me one that's in a little scribble. Okay. Just a bonus. Okay. We won't cut it on your sports phone.

We did our three. And we might keep track, but some of the other ones that were interesting. I just like getting points in week one because I think it's so unpredictable. Sure. So you got, it's still worth the same number of points

if it's game one or two seven. I know. But I think in week one, it's based, everything is based on faulty information. It is. That's why you can get it in it. Which is why I'll just take points. Right? Because like to me, it's unpredictable, but I know what those points are worth.

For instance, the Saints are six and a half point underdogs and the Browns are five and a half point underdogs. Two of the worst teams in the NFL, they're written down as my extra picks. I would take them both at home against teams with some weaknesses. The Browns are playing the Bengals. And so you think they're going to win or lose by less than, okay. Five and a half for the Browns. And then the Saints, I just feel like that's, that's a lot to give the Cardinals. I feel a little less sure about that, but I, but I do, I'd rather just take it.

It's week one. It's home. I like those two. The Saints one is tricky. It's a sneaky good one to me because I think everyone has slept on Alvin Kamara a lot. This past, like, when I was doing some fantasy drafts, he was available to me in a round that felt ridiculously low, like four or five. I'm like, hmm, why are we all sleeping on him so much?

Because I'm, I'm just curious if he somehow was not the guy who, you know, was second to Jemir Gibbs in terms of number of rushing attempts and past catch last season. I did somehow his coach who pretty, pretty sure Kellan knows how to deal with a great running back. You know, Sequin might have a little something to say about, but point being, you know, like I just don't see where. So I'm with you. And plus I saw them firsthand against the Broncos. for preseason. Okay, it's preseason. We get it.

But I don't think they're as bad as it seems. I understand when you don't have a quarterback and you don't name your starting quarterback until a week before the game, it seems a little dicey. But I just a lot of points. A lot of uncertainty. So I like those two. I like the jets giving up three points to the Steelers.

I mentioned the Vikings. I'm on the other side. The one that was the closest to making my top three was the dolphins. Oh, let's talk about this. Let's talk about this. Yeah. I just. I don't do mess, baby. Fast track.

Well, but they're both mess. I don't, no, no, I don't do mess. Okay. Right now, who's playing? Are we sure? Like, is Devon A. Chan okay? Messy. And remember, I love me some Mike McDonnell,

but when it comes to lying liar who lies, he comes from the tree of lying lying who lies. Kyle Shannon. So he's right now questionable. Tyree Kill, questionable. Are they going to play? I, would you feel differently if you, if it was a half,

Devon A. Chan, half Tyreys Indicated he feels good about Tyreek. It sounds pretty good on A. Chan. I do love their pass rush on a fast track. I'm saying I like your pass rush, too. And I actually trust their offensive line over the Colts where there's some new players, some

uncertainty. In general, everyone, this is the Bad Vibs Bowl we talked about on our preview show. But ultimately, I like the way that the Dolphin have started the last few seasons and I kind of just like them in this spot. having a one week one week win so that that's it uh to review our our main review the ones that matter i have the giants plus six i have your lions plus three and half and i have the jaguars as a favorite

over carolina and you went with the bills at home as a home underdog the bears the bear is at home as a slight home underdog and the bucks uh-huh i only like bees today um and yeah my extra Picks. Bills Bear Bucks. If you were curious, I like the Dolphins, Browns. Jets. I'm going Colts, baby. Those are a little extra. Come on Colts fans. Help me out here. We are. We are. I can't wait. Numbers game is the podcast, is the YouTube channel for Cynthia Freeland. Please check her out there. Her new podcast with Logan Ryan. Also check out, we're doing a live post game pod for the Friday night Brazil game. So if you're listening to this, it's only a few hours. Come check out. Join us live. Me and Nick

Chuck. Football's so back. It's back. Hey everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind. what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart

Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast.