NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 10 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: November 8, 2024

Gregg and Cynthia Frelund are back for another week of Man vs. Model head-to-head pick battle. Our duo dive right into their week 10 picks. An NFC East matchup between the Eagles and Cowboys is deeply analyzed (1:10). The interconference game between the Minnesota Vikings and Jacksonville Jaguars might not be close (5:17), with Falcons at Saints to follow (7:20). Later, the duo talks a potential upset in the AFC West battle between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs (11:15). Gregg's favorite New England Patriots might have a shot against the Chicago Bears on Sunday (14:15).NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we definitely believe in the fired coach principal. I'm Greg Rosenthal in the Chris Wesleyan podcast. Alongside, my friend, Cynthia Friedman. The fired coach principal? Oh, yeah. We'll get to that in just a minute. I know where you're going with that.

You know where I'm going. Obviously. But the dead coach bounce. It's coming up in this show. But very happy to be next to my friend, Cynthia. And happy for once to be recapping our records on this man versus model segment that we do. Look at us. Each and every week.

I finally had an undefeated week. Let's go. It was coming. It was slowly coming. So I had a three and a no week last week, 14 and 13, you know, just over 500 on season. Cynthia keeps stacking up those two and one weeks. A lot of winning week. weeks lately. So between the two of us, five and one last week. We're feeling good. Pretty good.

We're going to try to build on that. Yeah, we are. Three games against the spread. That's what we do each week. We joined forces last week. Fading the Cowboys. That was smart of us. We both hit that. So that was a good job. So we could agree on one of these picks, but I'm going to let you take the first one. Let's do it again. Okay. I'm fading the Cowboys again. Oh yeah. So am I? I have the Eagles covering the 7.5 point spread. I think that is a ridiculously low number. Are you saying I mean higher one now? No, that's one of mine too. I saw I was at 7 when I looked this morning. But yes, go ahead. Yeah. So whatever. Seven, seven and a half. I'm fading to me either way, because that is actually the same thing, right? Seven, whatever. So long story short, I'm just saying

the Eagles here are in much better position to take advantage of a reeling Cowboys team. I think a lot of changes are coming their way. Even though at the trade deadline, they were buyers and not sellers. I love your face with that. I was kind of hoping to see what you would say about. But long story short, I'm not, I can't eight points. No. We're joining forces again because this was the one I felt best about. So once again, we're going against the Cowboys. I think it's going to come in handy. Just give it to me. Inject this one into my veins, this game. So it's one thing just like looking at the football of it. all. I think just the football at all, taking Dak Prescott out of the mix. But even if he was in

the mix, if this was four or five with Dak Prescott, I would love to do it. Just how these two teams are playing, Eagles as a top 10 type of team in total efficiency, Cowboys as a bottom six or seven type of team in total efficiency. The two line plays, like the offensive line of the Eagles versus this Cowboys D line, even if Mike is back, total domination. And then vice versa, the Eagles defense has been playing a lot better lately. Can I ask you an unanswerable question? question. Why isn't it Tray Lance? Okay. I think it will be in a couple weeks because Cooper Rush is better at playing quarterback at the NFL. He's an okay backup. Okay. Let's just, hold on. We're getting off track here, but I want to understand this a little bit. I'm,

I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, Dak is out. He's hurt. Yeah. So I have a chance here to get a free look at who's on my roster. I already know what Cooper Rush is. Yeah. Yeah. He's, he's just worrying about saving his job. The little chance that he has, Cynthia is staring at the camera like she's Jim from the office. Yeah, he just thinks the best chance would be. John Krasinski. That is my new alter ego. The best chance I think would be winning games that you're not expected to win. And he thinks Cooper Rush gives them a better chance to do that. Although you could also argue the only chance you would ever have is do something creative with Trey Lance and make Trey Lance look good. But what are the odds Mike McCarthy could do any of this? But wouldn't you say like, okay, I'm, I'm,

Mike McCarthy. Let's make Tray Lance look awesome. So then I have this great trade bait for later and see, ha ha, look what I've done. I've created value for you. Like, I don't know. Just maybe somebody somewhere can explain. The process with the Cowboys is all wrong. It's why getting Jonathan Mingo is all wrong. It's not about, oh, wow, this is a cost controlled contract. That's why it costs the same as the Andrew Hopkins. It's like, okay, but you got to take into a county's cheap for three more years. Yeah, but you got to take into a county can't play. That he can't get open that the tape is brutal and teams always overvalue their college evaluation of a player when the NFL tape is so much more important. But why would I want to admit I'm wrong about

anything? Right. I mean, why would I ever want to say, hey, maybe I got this one wrong? Well, come back to us. If both Cynthia and I get this wrong, then we deserve to be. Yeah, we deserve to be. We're feeling good. We're now one and no when joining forces at least in the last one week. It's a Grinthia. I think we did join forces earlier in the season. And yeah, like this is where you need a coach to get creative offensively. Mike McCarthy is not that guy. This isn't a game.

I don't think the Eagles will play with their food at all because it's the Cowboys. It's their rivals. That's right. Hertz has been very composed lately. A lot of big plays. They've had dominant stretches. I know they messed up at the end of that Jaguars game. But from the second half of that Bengals game through the first half of that Jaguars

They were steamrolling teams. All right. We're both on the Eagles. Give me your second pick. Well, you're, do you want to? That was my pick, though, too. So we're, okay. Well, if we did golf rules, you should have actually started this off.

It's fine. Whatever. Minnesota and the points, please. Okay. So now that we're taping this. I want to keep our good record going. At the moment we're taping this, we do not think that Trevor Lawrence is playing. No, there's no reason to.

Right. So it's a touchdown now. It's up to a touchdown. Fine. Yeah. You're good with that. Fine. Give me a touchdown.

sure. I mean, is Aaron Jones playing? Yeah, okay. Is Justin Jefferson? Okay. Yeah. I mean, I'm not scared by anything that could be happening. Or is it C. J. Bethard? Who is it's got to be Mac Jones. Right. But then you would think, although they haven't announced it and then C.J. Bethard And he said, the tradeout, he's like, we wanted to get him back on this roster to be the backup. Like, I don't know. All I'm saying is I'm not scared of Mac Jones. I wouldn't be either. I like that one. I should have written that in my box. Maybe I will. I'll join you. You have to do it in a fake and Midwestern access, Minnesota. Minnesota.

There you get. Even better than I thought it was going to be. It's funny because they've, they had such bad vibes. I do, I hate talking about vibes when we're talking. Vibe check. And everything. But it's one of the reasons why I feel so good about the cowboys that the vibes of their starting quarterback saying, we eff and tuck.

And Mike McCarthy slamming down and them just making mind-boggling decisions in terms of their play calling with the fake punts and everything. Like the vibes are down horrendous. is I give Doug Peterson a little credit. Vives are low. Vives are low. Steve Weish and I were there as they were getting steamrolled in London. And that team seems so disconnected.

And they've actually played pretty hard since then. Like, even in last week's game, they could have laid down when they were down big against the Eagles. And they battled back a little. So they've got some players. I think they'll try. But that's not going to be enough when you have Mack Jones behind a bad offensive line against Brian Flores' defense.

Yeah. I mean, I just don't think that there's anything. I'm not scared of this offense. I was on Minnesota side. It was only four points when it was Trevor Lawrence, but I was on Minnesota side for more than four points when it was Trevor Lawrence. So why would I not think that with a change of quarterback that seven would be very achievable? Okay.

I like that. That was not one of the ones I wrote down. I'm still debating on my third pick. I'll see if you take it. But my second pick is something more powerful than X's and O's. It's believing in something more. than just what's on the field and the players. It's believing in a higher power.

You got to ask, Patrick loves momentum. No, it is the fired coach principle. It's the fired coach bounce. If ever there was a fired coach bounce, it is Dennis Allen. Because based on the reporting that's out there and piecing a few things together, I believe that the players essentially fired Dennis Allen.

That literally there was, you know, a connection. The reports have come out that was essentially ownership, The GM, the front office didn't disagree, but there was conversations between ownership and a lot of the players. I mean, these players helped to get rid of this coach, whether indirectly or directly, I think it was directly,

they're going to be playing their hearts out. Now, normally I would say this is such a great spot for the Saints because of that, no matter what. Then you throw in the Falcons factor. This is a rivalry game. You throw out the records in the rivalry game. Every Saints Falcons game comes down to an insane point.

play that you can't believe happened at the very end, unless it's James calling a touchdown on the goal line for Jamal Williams. That was actually a blowout, but that was an insane play at the end. So the number here is four. Saints are plus four. They don't have to win the game. I'm going to pick them straight up on our show game debut just to be spicy. I don't feel as good about that as I do about getting plus four.

But they did have some good players come back to, Cynthia. Caesar Ruiz returned last week. I hope Lucas Patrick is back for this game. He was in and out last week. Tisom Hill was back. And I do think it'll be their defense playing. And I do think the division familiarity, the rivalry game,

and the higher power that is the fired coach principle that they cover this for. I mean, my only problem with that is the Marshawn Lattimore not being their piece along with... He's hardly ever there anyways. I get it, but it does take a difference, make a difference.

It takes a lot away from them. And also, they just haven't been tackling on defense. I still have not seen them be really stout with their tackling. I don't think that was a, hey, hey, guys, let's band together to get Dennis Allen fired by not tackling these guys. So I don't know. I, I, I, I'm with you in the, in the fired coach principle. The math is different. However, I get it. It's not, it's not one of mine that I feel really strongly. But tackling might be an effort thing, a little bit of a like,

let's be totally focused on the details. We got some really prideful veterans, Tyron Matthew, Kim Jordan. Yeah. Carl Granderson sending out Instagrams, like saying, this is me walking into work this morning and he's singing and dancing like they... How bad was Dennis Allen if they're doing this stuff? I don't know, but I... These are grown ass men. Oh, sorry.

These are grown but men. It's fine. They're not like young ones. See, I mean, they're young, but they're not like the new guys on the team. This is their Super Bowl. If I was going to pick the Saints to win one game the rest of the season, this is that game.

I'm with you, but I'm just very confused about, I don't know. It just seems like a lot of effort to, like, you know what's funny? I've actually, the, maybe I'm not influenced enough, but I have not used social media at all this week, like not even a little bit. So I haven't seen, smart mental health move. Listen, I got to protect the mentals, you know? So I haven't seen like any of the player stuff. So I'm only hearing it secondhand, which is actually maybe I need to come get all of my new.

No, you can't put that into the model. The model needs to be unemotional. No, the model is always unemotional. But sometimes I like to see, you know, I've literally only been reading like press conference recaps that we get in our email. Like that's, that is where I have been this week. I have namaste it. Smart. I think that was a healthy and sometimes. Sometimes I make good decision. Productive move. You make great decision.

Just look at your fiancé. All right, let's look at your dogs. The dogs. All right. Your third and final pick. My third and final pick. You know, I, I think I was going to do one that was a little less spicy. But I'm, you know, one, I'm feeling quite spiceful right now.

Okay. So I'm going to take Denver and eight points. Okay. That's one of the two I'm debating as my next pick. Really? I think now I'm going to go off of it. You should go off of it so then we can get more great content. That was where I was leaning for most of the week.

I love it. You explain why you love it. I think Denver last week, they got routed. We get it. But they were doing some weird stuff. They were doing run blitzes, not their usual pass blitz. I don't think they win, but I think eight is too much. of a difference. I think it's more like five or four even, something like that. We haven't seen

anything from this chief's team who's undefeated and maybe looking ahead to next week for Buffalo. This is the classic trap, trap game situation. You know, so I, I just don't think, while I believe that the chiefs probably win, I don't, and they have not been winning the easy way at all this season. They do not like to take the easy way out. They do not like to make their fans not have a heart attack. They're winning close games. Their defense is really good, but so too are the Broncos on defense. Their defense is way better than it looks against the Ravens. That was a weird outlier of a game. Remember last year we saw like a 60-pointer, you know, against 60 burger with a freaking dolphins and that was not indicative of who they were. And so if you,

and if you extracted all the Derek Henry data from what they've done this season overall, even without Baron Browning, I'm not worried about their ability to get some pressure. I'm so with you on this one. Last year, these two teams faced off against each other twice in three weeks. The Vance Joseph led Broncos held Patrick Mahomes to 14 points a game. Now, that was early when the Chiefs were struggling all. They never totally got over. But I do think that matters when it's the same coaching staff. The Broncos beat them actually in one of those games, 24 to 9.

So they split last year. They weren't giving up points. This is a better Broncos defense. They're on a short week Kansas City is. They played 83 plays on offense last week. That's always on my radar, radar, when there's a huge play total. And everyone always focuses on the defense. For instance, you know, you can look at the Bucks defense is going to be tired.

And they're all the defense is going to be tired. They played 83 plays. Well, offenses can't get tired. I mean, 83 plays. No, offenses don't you know that? Only defensive players get tired. So short week, we had 83 plays. It's a division matchup, which I think I'll always shrink.

Throw the record out, right? No, don't throw it out. But I think it shrinks the margins a little bit. Some history. I'm with you. I think the Broncos are a good enough team that they bounced back. That was going to be my third pick.

But I think you should go off of it because then we can. I will. We're not going to talk to you on it. That'll be in my box. Put it in the box. Yeah. The Broncos plus eight because I did agree.

That was probably going to be my third pick. But now I don't feel as comfortable here because I'm, it's not a homer pick. But the bears, the bears are so bad offensively that I'm taking the Patriots and the points. Can I say something that's a little off topic here? Please. Can bears fans?

keep their grubby bear paws off of my offensive coordinator until at least the end of the season, please. I want Ben Johnson to get a look at a head coach if that's what he wants, but not till the end of the season, Bears fan. Get out of my mentions about that. I get keep your grubby bear paws off of him. I would want him totally out of the division in general. If I'm Ben Johnson. Get out of my grubby bear. I don't want to be in the NFC North going up against Lafleur and O'Connell and Dan Campbell. Like that's, let's get me somewhere else. I know Bears fans won it and I'm taking it as a big compliment, but not yet. Not yet. Everyone, everyone wants Benjohn.

Hold. Saints fans will want him. He's not going to the Saints. He's not stupid. That cap situation is. Yeah, it's going to be tough. Atrocious. They have like $39 million from Marshawn Latimore, man.

So this one's tough because I hate, it's going to pain me even more if the Patriots don't cover this six because, you know, I root for them. But the bears are so bad offensively right now. They're lost. And you can look at what they did with those couple games against bad. bad defenses. The Patriots are a bad defense. That tape they put out there last week against the Cardinals was embarrassing. The effort from some of the receivers hasn't been great. They're not on their details. The offensive lines bad. Caleb looks a little shooketh, I would say, because things aren't happening in front of them, how they're supposed to happen.

Drake Bay, to me, looks more comfortable if we're looking between the two rookie quarterbacks. And so they just are a team that has so many problems that I love to just take points against a team with that many problems. I know defensively they're better. I would still pick them to win, but six points is too much for me. I'm taking the Patriots.

Well, the things that I feel strongly about in this game are Remandre Stevenson still being worth a fantasy play. Same with him potentially getting in the end zone because Andrew Billings is not playing. That's their big defensive tackle. That's a big, huge, massive deal. And also, if Montess Sweat doesn't play, it will change how I feel about how close this game is.

I still think the Bears win because of their defense. They do maybe get some of that secondary back that they've been missing. That's a big deal. Plus, I do think, like, I do believe that they're going to get some of these heavier personnel formations down, like, maybe use 12 once in a while, maybe throw, you know, an extra lineman out there to help your guy know what's going on. It hasn't looked pretty on deep passes. And a lot of that is because Caleb Williams has been running for his life.

So help him out. Help a rookie out. Right. He just, it's like their EPA per play numbers. It's, it's everything. I think he's part of it. I think he's holding onto the ball too long sometimes. And no one's comfortable.

So it's the coaching and it's not working on what's happening with, with Caleb. And yeah, maybe I'll be wrong. It is not always the best thing to go off of vibes. But the vibes there are so horrendous. And sometimes vibes like the Saints last week with the Panthers. I don't know how they lost that game. But somehow the power of the vibes were so strong that they found a way to lose that. And what's happening?

Like Matt Eberflus is holding that play sheet so tight right now. The players seem so unhappy. They're asking DJ Moore if like he should, you know, if he's lost the locker room. He's like, I'd like to say no. I mean, that is all concerning. I think, I just think this game could be tight. It wouldn't shock me if the bears lose this game outright just because of all the negativity. So I will take the six points.

That'll be my third. To recap. But wait, don't you want the kind of want the Patriots maybe not to win this? Because right now they're sitting pretty at pick number one. That's true. It's a long way to go. They'll probably win, you know, one game at some point the rest of the season, maybe. Yeah.

Oh, but like, it would be nice. Don't give it to the Panthers. It would be nice. Steal it for yourself. You got a long way to go here. already have a quarterback. That'd be fun. Yeah. And you have the first pick and maybe you can trade down, pick up a ton of

picks. Right. I'm just saying, I don't know. I'm something to consider. Absolutely. You took the Eagles. I took the Eagles. We're aligned there. We're both. We're at minus seven according to right. Take it at minus seven. The Vikings you're taking at

minus seven. And then we we both like the Broncos. Officially you will be the only one with the Broncos plus eight. My three picks were the Eagles. We're together. and then the paths plus six and the Saints plus four. Now, this is a week where I had a lot in the box because I'm coming off a three in a week. You end up feeling more confident.

That's right. And suddenly everything looks big. It's like when you're hitting threes. Like, yeah, this is fine. Whatever. The hoop just looks a little bigger. So I like the Rams minus one on Monday night. I just think they're a better team than the dolphins.

I know you're on the other side of that. I am on the exact other side of that. Don't care. Rams probably getting two offensive linemen back for this game, which is a really big deal. We'll see, but they're practicing. It sounds pretty optimistic that they could get Steve Avula and Jonah Jackson back. I think they're better.

I just think the dolphins are a team defensively that are finding ways to lose. So it'll probably be a close game, but I like the Rams to win. And then going over to Berlin, I like the Panthers plus six and a half. You're going to give me six and a half points. As a Giants team, and Bryce Young's been playing better lately. I think he's played better the last couple weeks. I think that ends up being a close game. and the Panthers cover the six and a half

and then you threw the Vikings in so that's going to be in my box too. You know what's hilarious? I actually think Daniel Jones throws for over one and a half touchdowns. Okay. That game. Sure. I could see that being a It's at four games where he's done it. More of an entertaining game than people would then expect because Theo Johnson, Malik neighbors,

the Giants defense finds a way to mess things up. Bryce Young's playing a little better and it's something like 26 to 22 and they cover that. 26, 23. I just think Daniel Jones two touchdowns. Okay. Cynthia's going strong on the two touchdowns. I know. It's random.

That is it for our picks, man versus model, week number 10. We're on a roll. We're both over 500. Let's keep this winning streak going. It has been a great week here on NFL Daily. We said goodbye to our good friend, Randy Chavez. So we wish him all the best in his future endeavors.

We will be back on Sunday with the recap show, Nick Shook, Patrick Claibon, momentum yes and all the momentum you can handle uh look when i'm picking a bear's team to start imploding uh you know football is back see you then this is an i heart podcast