NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 11 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: November 15, 2024

Gregg and Cynthia Frelund are back with another Man vs. Model head-to-head pick battle. Our duo deliver their picks for week 11 of the NFL regular season. Both Gregg and Cynthia are unwavering in their choice in the Texans-Cowboys game, but only one is confident in Indianapolis against the Jets. In what would have been a NFC North headliner a few weeks ago looks much different between the Packers and Bears in week 11. Both hosts have stake in the Falcons-Broncos game, and Gregg adds on an extra pick at the conclusion of the show!NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we are on a roll fading the cowboys. I am Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesleyan podcast studio with my friend who joins us. for our Friday picks show every week. Cynthia Freeland.

Hi. How you doing? On a little bit of a roll here. Hey, you know, that's how we live. When we join forces fading the Cowboys the last two weeks, we are two and O each. A combined four and O if you wanted to count our records. But I don't know

if you know this. I haven't told you this. I went three and O again last week. So I am on a 6 and O heater and you're also doing great as well. You've had four out of five winning weeks. we both are well in the winning margin for the season. It is all

happening, Cynthia. What is going to be your first pick? We pick three games against the spread each and every week. Okay. I think this week my starting point is going to be fading the Dallas kids.

Oh! Okay. I wasn't sure if I was going to go there again or not, but tell me why. I mean, to be fair, it's hard seven and a half. is a weird number. Okay. But I don't care.

I have it for more than that. I ultimately believe the fact that even though the Dallas defense has gotten some pressure, I just think with Nico Collins coming back, they're going to treat this as a let's get Nico back. They have the best. So a second best in terms of quarterback to wide receiver and pass her rating. So 133.3. That's what happens for CJ Stroud when Nico Collins is there.

And he hasn't been on the field. So I think they're going to treat less like they would treat maybe like, not a preseason game because that's not what I mean, but like integrating him back into the lineup, run all the routes. Let's get targets here. Let's get targets there. Like this is a great opportunity for that.

And plus, you know, you can run on the Cowboys and Joe Mixon turns out he's a running quarterback, or running back. He's a great running back. The fact that they haven't been able to get their early down run game consistent. There's a lot of lost, you know,

stuff's negative run. Yeah, but that's like, but look like. That's against good teams. But you have to also realize like lines are very good at that. Like it's, it's, I understand that, like, it's weird saying that as a Lions fan. I almost feel like I'm lying.

But, like, the Lions are really good at that. No, you're absolutely right. So I had the Cowboys fading them as possibly my third pick. And I wasn't sure whether I would or not. And I had it seven. Probably depends where you look. You're right. I think it's moved up to seven and a half.

But you know what? I like being on the same team as you. Let's do it. So if I'm putting a big question mark and I'll get to the one I was considering later, If it was on the edge anyways as my third pick, I will also go Houston minus seven and a half on the road in Dallas. Look, it's all about the Cowboys offense for me. The reason why I'm a little anxious about it is just the Cowboys defense last week

with Michael Parsons back. If you watch that game, it took the Eagles about seven drives to get to that second touchdown. And they got a lot of pressure. And that's against a good Eagles align. And I think about that matchup and it's home. and they got to be embarrassed. And I just think the Cowboys defense will be okay.

And yes, the return of Nico Collins matters a lot, but this offensive line for it. And so I was just worried, man, is this going to be the third quarter? And it's 17 to 10 and I'm sweating this out. Yes, probably. But it's the other. It doesn't matter.

No, it's the other side of the ball. I don't want to sweat this out. The last couple weeks, we've been hitting like ones that are over mid third quarter. It's the other side of the ball. I mean, Cooper Rush average less than two. yards per pass last week every time he dropped back. He now has a neck injury.

His quarterback wins stat is really good. Right. He has won a lot of games. Not a stat. And the Texas, not a thing. They did get to Neil Hunter back at practice on Thursday. We're not for sure whether Will Anderson is going to play in this game.

So that's obviously a concern. But when they got Aziz Al Shahir back last week, I think that really helped them against the Lions. They are one of the most consistent week-to-week defenses in the NFL. I think they're one of the few difference-making defenses in the NFL. So if you're telling them, telling me one of the few difference making defenses in the NFL against this Cowboys team, like the over under I'm giving for Cowboys on points in this game is like 10.

Right. So give me the seven and a half. We are both on the Texans again. We've been riding. We've been riding this fade train for the Cowboys. Let's keep it rolling. Keep my undefeated street going. If I get to 9 and 0, like if you think I'm insufferable now, if I go three straight weeks,

I don't, I don't really think you're insufferable. Like I actually rooting for it. because I think it's funny. It doesn't mean that I am rooting against myself. No. We can both be. We're competing, but we're both winning right now. And we're giving our audience.

Who would win if we both win all the from here and out? Like everyone, the listener, you would win. That's absolutely right. All right. Give me your second pick. We are both on the Cowboys losing by more than seven and a half points at home to the Texans. What is your second pick? Indianapolis and the points.

Okay. I have the Jets winning outright, but I have Indianapolis with the points. with the points and it's very volatile on the Jets side and I don't like that so I'm punishing them because I have I have proven to my I have stayed committed to taking the picks in my model I don't go against my model you know this but I hate that pick like if I had to if I had to if I had to Colts wait but you're taking the Jets well straight up and let's say that yeah okay sorry I don't know I have a lot of like we do a show on NFL 9th I understand.

We don't mention it a lot. And the listeners for this show would be particularly interesting, game day view on NFL network each and every week. The first airing is very early in the morning on the West Coast on Friday, but it has multiple airings throughout the weekend, including on Sunday morning before game day morning. So you can set your DVR to our picks there. So your pick is Jets plus four or minus four?

No, my pick is Colts. Oh, Colts plus. Plus four. Oh, you're saying I have the Jets. That's what I thought. But I have the Colts, because I hate this. All that matters is the Colts recovery. Right.

It's all that matters. That's right. I'm just telling you, but I'm just explaining that part of the reason why I, specifically, or specifically, how you speak English, wanted this one. It's because sometimes I get mad at my own model. Right. And so you're not happy that your model has the Jets winning this game. Your model's been heavy on the Jets all season.

Now, my model, the Vegas has too. over. Vegas has two. Frankly, when I looked at this one, and this was the fourth game I was debating, so this one's going to be in my little box. It's not going to be on my three official picks, but I'm with you. I agree with you. The fourth pick that I was debating was either Colts plus four or Texans minus seven and a half. And I'm going to put it as like my extra pick this week, but I am prepared to agree with you because I am picking the Colts straight up in this game. The vibes could not be worse. I mean, it's not that the Jets are just. just losing these games.

When they're losing these games, they are not competitive. I think it could actually be worse at home. I think their offense will be okay in this game against the Colts, but the Colts has been getting better pass rush lately since they got the Forrest Buckner back. And I think Anthony Richardson is a plus. I look at him as giving the Colts a better chance to win with a ground-based attack against this Jets run defense, which just had no fight last week. And some people, you know, you just look up front and you think, oh, they can't stop

their own. that's part of it you know what a big part of it is is sauce gardener and that defensive backfield it's a bunch of skinny corners and safeties who can't tackle and in the NFL today like they will test your edges i think they use jonathan taylor anthony richardson on the edge and sauce gardener and those guys are just missing tackle after tackle week after week so i love your indie plus four i think you're two and oh can i tell you something i spent far too much time looking at what happened with my model and we're jonathan taylor with anthony richardson starting especially because jeff Ulbrick sitting there on his podium being like, we couldn't make any tackles last week

at Arizona, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Well, you know what? Actually, Jonathan Taylor's projection went up with Anthony Richardson. Why? Because Anthony Richardson can't be doing wild things. Right now he has like the highest air yard per attempt average of any, like, it's like 13 yards per attempt. It's a wild number.

It's insane. So in order to keep him from turning the ball over shorter passes, but also the threat of the run. And who are they going to defend? Are they going to defend Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor? The answer is both, but like, how, right? So Jonathan Taylor, don't be afraid of his rushing yard total over. Gosh, I'm using all these G words. I'm scaring myself here. You can, I know, but I've been, the fear of God has been beaten into me about that. Yeah, for years, we had to walk this. We had to say like, the worst, people would be like, your grammar is terrible. I'm like, you try speaking in code. Yeah, we had to speak in a weird

code. It was essentially a pick show. It was essentially a gambling show. But, But it was like... You couldn't advertise it that way. And we'd say more or less. Yeah, not higher or lower. Here we go. Okay. I feel so good about Packers minus five and a half.

I can't believe this number has gone back to the Packers during the week. It was actually higher when I looked initially. It was six earlier. Now it's five and a half. Sometimes it's just over in life. The numbers that your model spits out and you're probably on the same side as me, are you? But even Vegas, they can't totally measure when it's just, over these are these are human beings and you don't get the dead coach bounce with the offensive

coordinator change so there's there's two reasons i'm picking this one okay you want to step no no i'm doing this is okay thank you reason number one um everyone thinks that okay the bears offense is a mess but it's a good defense right you know it's a good bear's defense like okay their defense is fine a they do not rush the passer very well like they're getting montez sweat back but they're not really a great pass rush team. Very mediocre in terms of getting to the quarterback in terms of pass rush win rate, all that stuff. Number two, they don't stop the run at all. They're actually quite poor stopping the run. So you're going to tell me they're a difference making defense when A, you don't really rush the passer at an exceptional rate. Your average. And then B, you're legitimately

bad stopping the run. They are 30th in DVOA. That's total efficiency against the run. That measures their schedule. That's been a big part of the reason why their defense is overrated. They're 13th overall on defense by that metric because of the schedule. They haven't played anyone. And now when they've started playing some teams like the Cardinals, for instance, they got run over. And then, look, I got a third number. A third point point. Andrew Billings was by far their best run stopper. They kind of count on a nose tackle to take up two blockers on the interior. He's a huge man. Very underrated

player was playing at a high level for them. He just went out for the season. two weeks ago. So I think they're significantly worse than they were then. The offense is obviously a mess. And we don't even need to talk about how bad the offense is. But I truly believe it's over, over. These last two games were two of the worst games I've ever seen

from an offensive staff and offensive team. And you're playing a good Packers team. I think they win by 25. Like I love it. Give me this Packers one. I'm with you on that. I will say, here's my like like I did a we're going down a nerd rabbit hole but it's okay because I have my glasses on so when I'm wearing my glasses I can be nerdyer um I did this thing where I tracked how my where the volume of money was going on bets and which fans are disproportionately irrational about their team and Chicago fans are pretty irrational meaning they they get a little change and they're like we're winning now right like they go they swing all the way back to

Like, they're very, like, we hate you, we love you, we hate you, we love you. So I think part of that is to entice those Bears fans. In Vegas, I also read all these 10Ks and, like, you know, these earnings, I do nerdy stuff. And I have a lame free time. I read these earnings report. The casino's been getting hammered a little bit. So look out for these lines to be a little wild because they need to entice some fans. All right.

Just a little business 101 here, you know, with the last one. enticing me right now to go Packers minus five and a half. And it's funny you say that because every year on the over under draft that we've been doing on the podcast, which I'm on a wild winning streak. Yeah. On the last couple of years. Man, I'm just patting myself on the back too much.

Why not? The Bears over under before the start of the season is always too high. And I've gone under every year and I did it again this year. It was nine and a half in some places. But I feel good that either whether you got an eight and a half or nine a half, it's going to be under. All right. Let's go to your final pick. My final pick.

Speaking of a team that hit their win totals or will be hitting their win titles, should they win this game? Denver. Five and a half wins was the win total ahead of the season. They're at five right now. I'm feeling good about that one. I hammered that one pretty hard,

so I would have been really eating crow or eating Bronco, I guess. I think you're getting it this week. Yeah, I think that they, this week, I think not only do they get the win at home against Atlanta, but I do have a win by more than two points. I... Two.

It's crazy. That's... It's a wild number. all these notes. Are we like becoming the same person? Denver is my second person. That would be great for me. I would get way more like Instagram followers. You know, it'd be very exciting. Let's be fair. I'd rather have your wit and quick bit. No. Anthony Jezzelnick is my favorite. So to be best friends with him would be great. I'm glad you. I'm actually scared of him. Glad you brought that up. The Jesselnik and Rosenthal Vanity Project is back this week. I know.

I don't think I've mentioned that on NFL Daily. I'm really excited about this. I'm really. I'm really excited about this. I appreciate. So I'm with you. Denver was my number two pick. It was locked and loaded minus two and a half I saw. So whether it's two, two and a half,

whatever, either way. I'm going full believer. You know, I went to lever. Now, the Broncos has been part of this show for my picks,

three straight weeks now. I went against them with Baltimore. We got it. We both were with them last week. It was in, mine was in the extra picks, the box, but you nailed it with the plus.

I agreed with you on that. There's a couple of reasons. I just like the physical matchup up front. The Falcons with the worst pressure rate, the worst sack rate in the entire NFL against a Broncos offensive line that's really underrated. Number one in pass block win rate right now,

PFF has them as the number two pass protection team in the league. So that's a huge mismatch. And Bo Nix's numbers when he's protected, they're fantastic. So that's the numbers reason. the more reason why I do it sometimes is I just look at the records and Patrick brought this up on the preview show.

The Falcons, to me, they're not a seven and four team. They need to come back to their water. Their water is six and five. I look at the Falcons, they don't deserve to be seven and four. Whether the Broncos deserve to be six and five, yeah, that sounds about right. A little above average, they've lost two straight the Broncos on the road to really good teams, Ravens and Chiefs. They're coming back home.

They need it more. like them in this spot to win the game, and I just don't believe in the Falcons defense at all. And I think they get cooked in this game. Sean Payton's really been doing a good job kind of building up this offense bit by bit. I've been trying to figure it out right now, but Mike McGwinchy, if he's able to go, like, that's very helpful to the tackle, even better. But I think they win the battle in the trenches on both sides either way. I agree with you. And yeah, Kirk Cousins is always a little dangerous because I think he's been playing at a pretty high level, despite not being able to move around

and yet I think his offensive line they're a very average pass rush by I mean past protecting group like you would think they had this reputation at the Falcons as a good pass protecting group just so they're all drafted so high right they're all like first rounders they're okay they're not bad they're not good

but this is against a very good pass rush so this is the first week of the season that we've agreed on two games and we really agreed on three because you picked off what would have been my fourth pick so we are both on the Texans covering seven and a half. We're both on the Broncos,

covering two and a half. You have the Colts plus four, which I wholeheartedly agree with. That is my extra pick in the box. I have the Packers covering five and a half. That is my very favorite pick of the week. And then you kind of took really the only extra pick I felt really strong about,

but I'll throw one, just little one out there. I kind of like the Raiders actually getting seven in Miami. I just don't. I just... You like the Norv, Scott Turner? the Turner family, the Turner family bump. I just feel like the dolphins aren't a good enough team to be favored by seven against basically anyone. Maybe if it was the bears, I would be okay with it, like, because I'm so down on the bears or the cowboys.

But I think the Raiders coming off a by, pretty good pass rush. They're two, like, I think the Dolphins defense, it'll just be low and ugly. So you're giving me three separate boy. That's why it's an ex. Tackles also missing too. And you're more Max Crosby lines up. Yes. There you go.

Good job. A guy with the last name of Lamb going against Matt. Max Crosby just doesn't, doesn't work. But that's just a little extra pick. And to be honest, my extra picks have been just like 500 lately. We're riding high on the top three. Sure. Wait.

I want to give an extra one too, though, because I have another one here. Please do. What is the number you see for Cleveland? Because I've seen it bouncing around, but I have Cleveland winning. Okay. Yeah. Now they're favored by one, but before they were an underdog by one. Right.

So, but I have, I have Cleveland winning this game. And I love Nick Chub. I'm a huge Nick Chub Stan. And he's going to get his over 50 rushing touchdown, which puts him in a club with some Hall of Famers. so like Jim like really good players so hey you know less talked about than the fired coach principal like it kind of fades after that first week you know I think long term they'll be better with Darren Rizzy than they were with Dennis Allen but this is a toss-up to me but I also pick

the Browns and so I agree with you on that yeah I also I mean look I think that it's much harder to defend erratic James Winston can be erratic we know that he's he's going to throw it deep but he's also, he could throw a pick, he could throw a deep, like explosive plays makes things harder and their defense still has been missing tackles. Their defense still has not been really stout at limiting yak, eliminating yak, yaco, yaka, either one. And that's, that's going to be hard because I just think as good as the Brown's defense. Like, to me, it's, yeah. I think the Brown's defense is the most trustworthy group in this game, but it did not make it

onto my card just because nothing about these two teams is too trustworthy. No, but that's my extra. Yeah, that's your little. extra pick. Thank you. Cynthia, once again, check out her YouTube channel, Numbers game. That's where it is all happening. Check out NFL

Game Day View. Subscribe to NFL Daily on YouTube. We really want to get the subscriber numbers up and Blue Sky. Is that what you're talking about? We both signed up for Blue Sky. Yeah, we both signed up for Blue Sky. I'm still not really, like, is it just the same thing in Twitter? I don't really know. I don't know, but it seems fun. It seems nice. But also, your pod with

with Anthony, the Justin Lick and Rosen Vanity Project. JR. J.R. Yes. It's really good. We are back and we're back in the mix. That is it for this week's show.

We will be back on Sunday night, of course, with Nick Shook and Patrick Claibon. Looking forward to that. And yes, when we're hitting the middle of November, and we believe you know football is back. Believe. study Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks.

On Move the Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast,

or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an I-Heart podcast.