NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 15 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: December 14, 2024

Gregg Rosenthal and Cynthia Frelund are back with another Man vs. Model head-to-head pick battle! Our duo deliver their picks for week 15 of the NFL regular season, including discussions of a potential Super Bowl preview between the Bills and Lions, a coin-flip battle between the Bucs and Chargers, and a game with an eye-popping spread — Ravens-Giants.NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Welcome to NFL Daily, where sometimes our computer model breaks our heart. Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesleying podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland. Do you get what I'm getting at here? Yes, I know exactly what you're getting right off the bat. I've looked at your computer model for the week.

This is the show every week where we make three picks against the spread. I hope it's not one of your three picks against the spread. It's not. But you do pick every game. The model picks every game against the spread. That's right. And I saw that your model not only takes the Buffalo Bowl. bills to cover against your Detroit Lions, you have the bills winning outright in the game of

the year. Yeah. I don't really have a lot to say about that other than I hate it. I hate myself. It makes me crazy. I mean, I guess on some level, then I don't lose in this game, but I also don't win. You know what I'm saying? No, you win if the Lions win. I win if the Lions win no matter what. Knowing you, you don't really care that your model gets to the game wrong. To be fair, when I look at that, like, I pick it, and it's based on a whole bunch of stats. And sometimes I'm like, what on earth is... So this is kind of the nightmare with AI. The computers have taken over.

Like, they are sentient. The fact that they're picking the bills over the lines. Actually, what are the kind of the underlying reasons? Because I am quite surprised by that, that on the road, your model looking at all the numbers has the bills as a better team. Because by a lot of numbers, The Lions are one of the best teams we've ever seen. So this is not going to be either one of our three picks,

but it is such a fascinating game. I am curious, like, are there any specific underlying reasons why you have the bills winning? Well, number one, and first and foremost, the injury report for the Lions defense. I mean, when you have the 2019 Pro Bowl team playing linebacker, things get a little dicey when you're facing Josh Allen. Yeah, that's the first reason.

And even if they get some of their defensive linemen back, that's still a bad part of the defense. to be banged up in. And those are guys, I mean, Alex Anzolone is not coming through that door. Minebackers will not be healthy this week. So that's a good point. We know that. And I don't know about as we sit here right now, we don't have a confirmation that other

guys like Zach Pascal, who else we're talking about, Aline McNeil? We don't know. Levi-owned was Zerike. I think we don't think he's on Zerike's playing, right? And then is Taylor Decker going to be back? Looks like it. Full practice. Yes.

As a Lions fan, all the crossies. Okay. Okay, so the linebacker position is a big one. But the reality is, the things that the lions like to do, Josh Allen is really great at. The Lions play a lot of man. Guess what Josh Allen does to man? 18 touchdowns, three interceptions. The Lions don't get a lot of pressure.

Well, you could argue that the bills could be tired based on the track meet they played with the Rams last week. They were in hurry up, basically all of the second half. That's a lot of snaps. I mean, they did only play 54 total snaps. That's about normal for them. But they were all hurry up snaps. that's wild. However, the lines aren't bringing a lot of pressure. They're still having their leading sack guy be Aidan Hutchinson, who hasn't played in like a

bajillion weeks. So the fact is, is that's the areas where things kind of deplete if you're talking about fatigue. I don't know. That's where the model stands. Bill's sneaking out that good at pressure in the quarterback either, which would worry me for a Bill's fan heading into this game. I like offense. I like a lot of points. I like the over. I don't have a hot you know, strong feeling, but I am just not going to pick against the lions this year. I don't want to pick against them. You think I want to pick against them? I'm not. But that is not one of my three picks.

No. This week. This week. Let's look at the standings from last week. We got back on the winning track. Both you and I went two and one. All right. Your two games back on the season. But we're both clear over 500.

Yep. And we're feeling good. Let's go to our picks this week. I have to admit, and I don't know why this happened for the first. time all season, I struggled to get to three games. I just didn't. Usually I have ones just screaming at me. Got to take them. Love them. And then I have extras. And I, you know, I just, I have so many. This one, I struggled to get past like one or two, but I'm going to have you start. Okay. Um,

well, I'm going to go ahead and take Denver. And I think Denver, what are you looking at? No, no. That was that one of yours? No. Oh, good. Well, that's kind of good. There are four point favorites at home. I like that number compared to some of the other numbers this week. Of course, I'd like a narrower gap. Three would be more fun, but whatever. Four will, we'll be fine in this matchup. I think what I'm looking at from Indianapolis is a, the things that this Denver defense is absolutely exceptional at, they're really, really strong against on the defensive side. And even if Riley Moss doesn't play and he's a really big fact, like he's been in really excellent part of that secondary,

it kind of doesn't matter because I'm not so worried about what Anthony Richardson's going to do on the types of passes that don't go to Patrick Sartan or they can't figure out. Plus, they've had a week of rest. I think the middle of that defense is terrifying. That's where Anthony Richardson likes to run. I just don't think this is a great matchup for what we've seen from AR. Okay. I like it.

I got to be better about a poker face. So, Colleen Wolf has talked about this, that it was an adjustment period when she used to do the round of the NFL podcast. And then she realized that's just resting Greg face. Got it. You know, it's just, I struggled to hide my emotion. I look like I'm mad at the person or something. In this particular case, the reason why I maybe made a face, it's not, you know,

you never know what it is. Right. It's not about you or your pick. It actually is because I'm like, I agree with you. I have the Broncos covering. They're not one of my three. It's more that I've made the Broncos fan base so angry this week by not having Bo Nix in my top five offensive rookie of the year.

Oh, I did see that. It's just going. It just keeps going. I don't have my mentions on on Twitter anyways. I'm not really checking in too often there. More of a blue sky guy these days. But there is a human part of me that would like to see them lose this game. Because they've been mean to you.

Yes. Got it. Well, as long as it's not, as long as that look isn't directed at me or my math, we're good. And yet, we do a show together that everyone can check out on YouTube as well where it'll say week 15 picks from the NFL, but it's on NFL network NFL game debut. And I have the Broncos covering as well because I just think they're a better team on both sides of the ball. If you tell me that your team is going to protect your quarterback better and it's going to get more pass rush than the other team on a every week basis and almost certainly in this matchup,

then I'm just going to take you to win probably. And they're better coached, I believe, overall. Sean Payton versus Gus Bradley, not that even. Yeah, but also I thought it was very smart that they re-signed Garrett Bowles right now. Just so everyone's clear, I've already started some draft prep. This is not a good offensive line draft class. there are like two that are day one starters after that slim pickens and that is a smart thing for them to lock down right now

so they have flexibility come draft time they don't need to reach to try to because there's a ton of teams that need offensive line help Patrick Mahomes yeah New England Patriots a lot of teams a lot of team they signed Quinn minors their guard before the start of the season that's what Sean Peyton tell me tum-tum man spend big look at Cynthia she's such a helpful pro she's putting some news into the program that would not have been there. Yes, Garrett Bulls getting a nice new deal from the Broncos.

Okay, the one pick that I did like right away was Vikings minus 6.5. I'm on that with you, all over that with you. When I look at division games, especially when they're playing twice in a short period, maybe this is stupid. There's probably no scientific backing to that, this at all, but I really feel it in my bones.

and the two teams are not even and we can say just look at the records they're not even in one of those two games in a division matchup especially when they're playing close usually the bad team is going to it's going to cover

it might win the game outright and it evens out and then the other one what you expect is going to happen is going to happen so I always pick games off of that it was why partly I had the Steelers

covering last week I felt great about that number against the Browns I was like they just lost of the Browns, good coaching staff. Now they're going back home, are not going to lose two straights of the Browns. I actually think they'll play a very solid game

win comfortably. That was one of my two wins last week. Very similar situation. The Vikings and the Bears just played. It was a three-point game. It was in Chicago. It was probably Caleb Williams' best games of the season. Then you look at the defense for the Bears,

which has been getting worse and worse and worse all year. And then you take Matt Eberflus out of the picture. I'm just saying last week they looked as bad as they have ever looked. And frankly, they weren't that good before. They're not getting a consistent pass rush, just personnel-wise, up front. And I think the Vikings will be able to protect Sam Darnold. And yes, I actually think they miss Matt Eber Fluse on the defensive side. Because now you got Thomas Brown's been promoted so many times.

You're running out of, you know, offensive guys to run everything. And now on the defensive side, he took out Eber Fluss. You've been picking up these guys for Eber Fluse's defense for years. I just think the Vikings are humming right now. and I would put their over-under on their points at about 31. And I just don't think the bears can keep up in a shootout like that.

I'm with you. You need to teach Thomas Brown about the poker face because I watch his pressers and he's just mad. Oh, really? He's big mad in them. And I'm like, I don't know what to tell you.

What did you think you were getting into? Plus, DeAndre Swift has been on the injury report. It's not like they're getting good push from their run game anyways. So, yikes. This is a team that has allowed tons of sacks all of the unblocked pressures

and the Vikings bring the heat and they did a pretty good job against them a couple weeks ago but that is more I think it's 54s I know it's the most sacks but I think it's 54 that's a bigger reason why I like the Vikings better because this coaching staff who has all the stability in the world

okay what did they do to us last time let's fix it they will fix it all right what's your second pick I know you're on the other side of this one let's be spicy Tampa Bay okay let's do it Tampa

now not um Only am I on the other side in terms of I just disagree. We're going to go head to head for a man versus model. This is going to be one of my picks. Wow. Okay. So it's three points. Yes.

That's what I'm seeing. Is that what you're seeing? Anyways. Two and a half. Okay. Two and a half. Three. Whatever.

That's okay. I like it both. When I'm looking at the opportunity here, I'm very worried about the injury report for the Chargers. I'm not sure if Ladd McConkey is good to go. J.K. Dobbins. Is Justin Herbert okay? I mean, he maybe didn't go off in an aircast.

like other people. But he does not look like he was completely healthy. That scares me. That scares me in large part because when I'm looking at Baker Mayfield's ability to withstand pressure, his O-line has really been helping him out. Past couple of weeks, he's been like not even hit at a high rate at all. And that's been very helpful. Plus, they are trying to get Mike Evans that 1,000 yard mark for the 11th straight season. He's 410 yards away. Just needs a measly 102.5 per game. But ultimately, I think that is where one of the mismatches lies. And I'm worried about the running backs, but they still have Rashad White, even if Bucky Irving isn't good to go.

And they've been getting a lot of good push on the inside where recently has been a vulnerable spot of the Chargers defense. Yeah. Those are all good arguments. The Chargers' offensive line a little weak on the inside, too. And you could see Vita Vaya and Kalasia Kansi having a good performance. They have some of the best names like Vita Vaya, Klajia Klaja Kansi. There's fun.

You do make me a little worried about the hurt. Herbert factor. Now, obviously, if Herbert's status is at all in question, I'm flying away from this pick. I thought you were going to say something very non-PG there for a second. I'm flying away. I'm getting out of here and I'll have to come up with a backup pick. But I assume he finished that game out. He's Justin Herbert.

I assume he's going to play in this game. I assume he's going to play, but does that mean he's okay? That is a worry. He has an ankle injury. He played through it well in Kansas City. Won't be as cold in this situation. He will be in the friendly confines of SOFI. But maybe the coldness was like ice, you know, kept it, kept it, the swelling under control.

I just think the Chargers are a better team overall. I think they're better coached. Sorry, Todd Bowles. I think their quarterback is such a difference maker compared to Baker. I feel like Baker's been getting away with it. Of course he has. The last month of the season, he can't keep getting away with it. Bad decisions, interceptions, fumbles.

Everyone has this idea because you look at the, at the total yards and touchdowns for the season that he's having this great season. He's having now about the season that you would expect. But if you look at just the last month, which has been against bad defenses for the most part, he's not seeing the field well. He's not making good decisions. And so that alone against this Chargers defense coming off a loss. And there is something just emotionally when I saw Jim Harbaugh on the podium after that game.

And he was so mad and so miserable. And it was just talking about how he can't wait for them to respond. I was like, oh, they're going to win next week. So that's also part of it. I'm stupid. And the reports are that there's a good chance Ladd-McConkie comes back. It sounds like he's going to be practicing. He is integral to what they are trying to do.

But I do like how they were able to run the ball late against Kansas City. So ultimately, I'm just doing it on recent form. Even though I've been on the Bucks all year, I picked them to win the NFC South. I still think they still will. Of course. I actually think they're playing worrisome football on the offensive side lately

so I like the Chargers in this game just on recent form. We're up against each other. I don't know if we've done that all year because we've been trying to give our our listeners winners. I feel like next week you're going to be like yeah but he was hurt. I mean, I don't know, that's like I'm no, I just

watching this decision minus two and a half is what I see. I'm making it no matter what happens. Now if he misses the game entirely. I'm giving a backup pick. But yeah, right now. I like it. I'm going Washington, as my dad says. Okay. A touchdown. Yeah,

I like that. Wash over New Orleans. Yeah, that's pretty good one. In New Orleans. I have a 10-point win for them. What? Like, my models don't love double digits. It's just very hard to do in terms of how models work. And so when you get, I have two double-digit wins this week by two different teams, which is

that's wild. Minnesota's the other one, just so you know. But I'm looking at the opportunity for Washington against New Orleans. with who's playing. Let's make a list. I mean, that's probably easier. There's just a lot of missing pieces on this New Orleans offense and defense. So Marciaun Latimore, revenge. Just kidding. Yeah, no, that's a good one. Like, he's probably going to play, which increases the opportunity to stop the pass. The guy leads the league and passes defense since he became an NFL pro since 2017. So that's great. But, you know, I also think that, you know, Jaden Daniels now.

has a moment to regroup after the start of the season. You know, they had their buy there. Cliff Kingsbury, people are like, oh, does this numbers all go down? Well, this is a defense where it doesn't matter if Cliff Kingsbury's tendencies are that he kind of shows everyone, everything too early. I don't think this defense has enough juice to kind of stop the multiple threats that are Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson, who presumably fully healthy now. So, you know, those are two reasons.

I like that. I agree with you on that one. I do think that's a Latimore revenge game. Kind of funny, though, like, who does he even cover on the Saints? Like, Kevin Austin. Like, it's crazy how deep into their depth chart there are. Marcus Valde Scantling, certainly, although that might not be the best, you know, just a pure burner against a guy coming off a hamstring injury.

But they're coming off the by. They're rested. They're more talented. And the most important thing is, yeah, it's either Jake Hainer or Spencer Rattler at quarterback. They're competing, supposedly, at practice, which is never a great sign. before a regular season game. So that one makes all the sense in the world to me. In fact, that'll be my backup pick.

So if you actually care about these things, I do. And since we do keep track of the records, if Justin Herbert does not play, I'll just go with you on Washington minus seven. My final pick, which I'm guessing is your third double-digit score of the week, is I went through all the games.

I just didn't have a lot of hot, like, picks against the spread. Like, Bengals is okay in Tennessee. I like the Ravens minus 16 and a half, wherever they're at. Like, I kind of love it. It's against Tommy DeVito, who was the quarterback. The last time there was a spread this high in the NFL. On Game Day View, with a straight face, I was like, how is this game going to go?

I put Ravens 44 Giants 6. So that's the type of game, I think it is. I think the Ravens needed that by worse than any team in the entire NFL. They were just tired. They had been in big game after big game after big game after big game. Why are you laughing? 4 to 6. Yes.

I mean, it is silly to take a minus 16 and a half, but that's why they made the number so high. Right. The reason I really want to take it, though, is I really think their defense was coming around before the, before the buy. So you got an improved pass rush and an improved secondary against Tommy DeVito.

And there's no one healthy on this offensive line. Their backups is backups, backups are hurt. Let's go, Ravens 44 to 6. They cover 60 and a half easy. I see the total here is 43. Right, sure. I love the over for that. Love the over.

Love it. The Ravens are one of the best offenses I've ever seen, and it's against, this isn't one of the worst defenses I've ever seen. It's not even a bottom five defense this year. It's probably like 23rd. So it's one of the best offenses against a bad defense, and what I would say is the worst offense in the league right now

against an improving defense, and it's a team that's rested and needs the win once, the wind, the atmosphere is going to be terrible in the Meadowlands. Like, it's going to be Ravens fans and booing Giants fans. So I take it back. Forget about not liking picks this week. I just talked myself into this. This was the one I had to search for, but now I like it a lot.

It's actually the Chargers you made me worried about. But I feel great about Ravens and Vikings. I mean, I'm with you. I mean, I have a 13 point win for the Ravens. I get it, though. Your model, it's... The problem when you model things is that it's very rare for a projection. in pregame to be that high.

It just doesn't happen very often because, you know, teams will rest. Like, maybe Derek Henry doesn't play in the second half. Like, there's just some things that happen when teams get up big this late in the season that are at, they throw a little monkey wrench in there. They're going to want to get the MVP for Lamar Jackson. I'm not like. And yet it happens all the time.

For instance, like, I'm just looking at last week. No, no. I'm not looking at the results. I'm looking at the, like, you remember ahead of the games, right? Like, it's rare to have, it's rare for. for me to have a 13-point win projected for anyone. Right. My point is, like, there are a couple big-time blowouts every week.

Of course. 49ers, Bears was one last week. In the end, Vikings would have covered a 16-point spread against the Falcons. You know, a couple weeks ago, it was harder to find, but like, commanders' tightens, that's a big-time blowout. Sure. Bill's 49ers, these things happen, and I think this is where it's going to happen. There you go. This week.

I like it. You've done it again. You know, it's all you. You are my friend. You are my friend. Wait, before we leave here. Yeah. How do you feel about your old coach going down to UNC?

Are you now Tar Heel Blue? Did you go buy some, like, Argyle, Tar Heel Blue stuff? Are you like a Michael Jordan lover now? I am excited about it just as a football fan. I wanted him out of the media and back on the sideline as almost as badly as he did. Because I got the sense he wasn't really putting his all into the media game. And I was a little disappointed by that, but he's born to be a coach. I actually had on my friend Ali Connolly on the Thursday night football recap show.

we talked about because he had broken this Belafel story and so it talked a lot about it there and I think it'll be cool. I think it'll be weird and I just hope he is like, has enough good players and has enough good offensive coaches that he

can out scheme the hell out of like Dabo Sweeney and whoever the hell else is in the ACC. It'll be great. I think he'll be good. Can you imagine Bill going to like someone's house being like hello, come play for my team? I don't think he's going to do a lot. of that. You know, Dionne has set up this new model. I get it, but like,

Dion doesn't go to anyone's house either. They come to him. I mean, I would come to Dion. I would come to Bill too. But like, can you even imagine if that were like a thing. You would like come to your house. Like, thank you for having me. Do you want to, like, I can't imagine I'm having an energy of like a double. Dabble sweet. He's like, we'll get you this. We'll get you that. And blah, blah. Nope. I think Bill will be like, do your job. Next man up. Okay. So I heard, um, a comparison of like there's multiple bills though, right there's the the bill that you see in front of the podium

there's Bill as the coach but then there's Nantucket Bill you know I've seen him and maybe you have wow Kyle my fiance his family lives in Nantucket in the summer that's a that's a podcast for another time I want to hear

what Nantucket Bill is like super nice nice as person maybe you get a little bit of both because it's like it's college it's not quite as hard it's not quite as stressful as the NFL maybe you get a little chiller kind of It's a great color. We're in his polos.

Good job by UNC. None of us would have been talking about North Carolina football. And now it's all I can read. Arthur Smith, this person, Ben Johnson, blah, like, does it, how does this tar heel feel? How does that tariff? Like, a mate, good for them. Lawrence Taylor, one of the greatest Bill Belichick players ever, probably the greatest. Yes.

Well, I guess there was one other guy. He went to Michigan. He played quarterback. That one went to Michigan. You know, and he was on offense. And Bill doesn't really care about offense. That's the one thing I'm a little worried about is that he finds the right. He will.

Matt Patricia. smart guys that are younger coming up. Matt Patricia will come in there and do the offense, just like he did for the Patriots for you last year, huh? I really will be a UNC fan. I want it to go well. You should. I want it to go well, too. I think this will be a happier, kindler bill.

Can you imagine, though, if you're dabbos when you're like, are you freaking kidding me? Like, I wouldn't wait, waiting my whole life for this and now, like, are you freaking kidding me? How about if you're the coach of Duke? Who is the coach of Duke? It's no longer David Cutliff anymore. No, I don't know who it is. I should know this. This is great. It's Manny.

Diaz. Oh, oh, okay. Oh, Mario Cristobal. He's going to be, like, facing some time. This will be, this will be a lot of fun. It's always fun with Cynthia. We will be back next week, and we will be back on Sunday. The recap show, no-bys.

It's a big 15-game recap show with Patrick. Kevin Patrick coming at you, coming on to this show as well. And, of course, Nick Shook. Look, when Bill Belichick is back in the saddle. I already said that on Thursday. Look, when we're going up against each other because we want that title at the end of the season, that's when you know football is back.

Yeah. See a Sunday. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies,

coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant.

And I'm Michael Fulrio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet, we've got the insight to help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more.

This is an IHeart podcast.