NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 16 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: December 19, 2025

Gregg Rosenthal and NFL Network's Cynthia Frelund give you their picks for Week 16 and they aren't afraid to take risks. They talk Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys (01:47), Las Vegas Raiders vs.... Houston Texans (05:48), Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions (09:19), New York Jets vs.  New Orleans Saints (13:34), Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns (15:53), and Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (18:16). Note: time codes approximate.NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:02:30 I'm here in the Chris Wesleying podcast studio with my great friend, Cynthia Freeland, the smartest person at NFL Network and has to hear me talk about our little pick show where we pick three games. It's not little. It's our big pick show. It is. It is. And we appreciate everyone. I like this jacket too. You're looking very stylish. Thank you. It's like a holiday purchase. This is kind of like, yes, we celebrated Christmas. last weekend, Rosenthal Christmas, and this was one of the gifts from my beautiful wife. Well, obviously, she's got great taste, though. She really does. She really does.
Starting point is 00:03:07 Except for in husbands. But she actually told me to take off the ratty-looking Tulane sweatshirt that I was going to wear today to represent. You should wear Tulane. I was going to. It just didn't look quite right. So I decided to get fancy. And yes, 11th straight winning weeks on the picks.
Starting point is 00:03:24 I went 3 in 0 last week, up to 12. 29 and 16 on the season. I'm never going to top this season again. But I got to say, Cynthia, this week was tough. I only had like one game that I just loved. And after that, I was just like, okay.
Starting point is 00:03:42 Like last week, I was feeling it. You helped contribute, by the way, to that pre-and-o record because you talked me out of doing Cardinals plus nine and a half and they got smoked by the Texans. And so that kept me undefeated. You want me to go first?
Starting point is 00:03:57 You go first. Yeah. Okay, the one I really like. There's only one? Or how many do you... That I love. Oh, the one you love, okay. They're really only one.
Starting point is 00:04:04 And it's the Chargers plus two and a half. And I've been just going with my gut of like picking winners in these games where it's plus three minus three, not getting too. This feels like one where they're almost daring us. They're definitely daring to take the Chargers. But you know what? I said that about last week, one of them too, and it worked out fine. The Chargers being five and a half point underdogs. Remember, we thought that was bait?
Starting point is 00:04:27 I mean, they won that game straight up. They did. Sometimes. Yep. In football. Now, this is what I don't know if the analytical models can test. Okay.
Starting point is 00:04:36 I think sometimes in football, there are certain teams that deep within their bones as a team. And it's crazy because it's like 45 players active on game days. They, at the end of games or in key spots, they're like, they almost want to lose. They will find ways to lose. They have that in their bones. I felt that watching Chargers Chiefs last.
Starting point is 00:04:57 week, that the Chiefs, they were just going to find a way to lose that game, even if it didn't make sense. But on the flip side, I think the Chargers are one of those teams, that there's just something greater than some of their parts right now where they believe that they are going to find a way to win one of these games. And I think they're mentally and maybe even physically tougher than their opposition, certainly this week. And all they got to do is win the game.
Starting point is 00:05:21 They don't even need to. They could lose by one, and I would still cover this thing. They're plus two and a half. I feel great about this because I think the Cowboys will find a way to lose this game and I think the Chargers will figure out a way to win it. I don't usually go much based on like gut. But when I looked at the fact that the Cowboys were favored,
Starting point is 00:05:39 I just thought, I'm like, am I reading this wrong? Yeah. Like I thought maybe I had lost my mind. I mean, it's possible. I probably have lost my mind. But actually both things can be true. I've lost my mind and that can be weird. But I mean, I just was surprised that they were even favored.
Starting point is 00:05:53 But what does your model have? My model has a straight-up win for the Chargers. Oh, okay, good. So I do have some real reasons, too, but I really believe in it. If you are a fan of the feed, you'll have checked out on Thursday this came out, the new Power Players episode with the general manager vice or assistant general manager, Chad Alexander of the Chargers, who said, we want to bully the other teams. We want to build a bully.
Starting point is 00:06:18 And I think you can kind of see that, that the culture that they've built, they really are more physical. And then you think about the Cowboys side of things. probably no Quinn and Williams in this game. He's in the concussion protocol. Their offensive line has been really banged up. Up front, the chargers are running the ball pretty well, and they're getting after the pass rushers. So I actually think they're better up front than people realize
Starting point is 00:06:37 and their biggest weakness on the offensive line. Justin Herbert mitigates that. And I don't think it'll be as bad against the Cowboys than against most teams. Especially without Big Q if he doesn't play. And my hottest take here is the offensive line. Maybe they're figuring out just a little bit. I watched last week, I know it was against the Chiefs,
Starting point is 00:06:54 but they're not a great pass rush. But Jamari Salier is their left tackle right now. And I think if they're playing a defense that doesn't challenge them in the way that Spagnolo did with all these blitzes and everything, I think they can survive and let Herbo be Herbo. And you might get to sit back and enjoy like a 12-point win for this game. Don't even worry about the spread. Like it's a two-score win.
Starting point is 00:07:17 Yeah, no, I'm completely with you. I just, for my first pick, I never see. So I have a more conservative model. A lot of things you see on TV, media models are often very like reactionary. Like it would be like 100% 99%. Like they'll be like these massive swings. Like you should never, if you're a good model or you should never have something that goes from like a 99.9% chance to the other team. That should happen once in like a million games.
Starting point is 00:07:42 It's not. It shouldn't. Anyways. So I digress. My point is I rarely see anything over 80%. Rarely. Like it almost never happens. 80% like 80% they'll cover.
Starting point is 00:07:52 No. 80% that a team will win. Okay. Like, I just rarely see it. Usually it's like 70s is like something crazy. Okay. 80% in my model implies 16 points. Ooh.
Starting point is 00:08:04 Okay. Which is by 14 points for Houston. Ooh, I love it. Is, and I'm not no shade to the Raiders, although they only manage 75 yards of offense against the Eagles last week. I'm looking at this opportunity here. The Texans need it in order to ascend to the top of the AFC South, which I anticipate that they end up doing.
Starting point is 00:08:27 I'm looking at this and not to kick a, kick a, you know, Raider while they're down, but. Why not? You said like, no offense to the Raiders, all offense to the Raiders, unless you've been listening to this show in which you've been cashing in picks week after week. Last week, one of my picks was Philly minus 11 and a half. It almost felt too easy against the Raiders. They won that game by 31. Yep.
Starting point is 00:08:50 That's fantastic. Yeah. And you, by the way, you hit your Texans pick last week. That was the one I was saying that you talked me out of. And I think it was an interesting moment for them because they've had such a tough schedule. They've now come together. We know their defense is good. The offense is definitely playing better.
Starting point is 00:09:07 And it was the first time we've seen them as a heavy favorite. Yep. And they kind of looked like a Super Bowl team. And so this is enough, you know. I think that the configuration of the Super Bowl team for the AFC is going to be all defense. I mean, to me, it's either the Broncos or the Texans. I know everyone's excited about the bills, but for Josh Allen, I don't know what I'm looking at. Plus, it's going to be hard for them to win the division.
Starting point is 00:09:28 They're going to need two Patriots losses. They're not going to win the division. They're very likely not to win the division. Gino Smith was at practice just as a piece of information for this game. I mean, no offense. Like, again, I feel very mean because I like the, I love the branding's awesome. I love the history of the Raiders. I love it.
Starting point is 00:09:46 Go to the branding. I love their speed. I mean, I do think Gino is an upgrade over. Kenny Pickett. Of course, but yeah. They were one of the, right down here if you're looking at my school. Oh, love it. Because once I only had one, then I was like, okay, just write down some that I just
Starting point is 00:10:01 kind of like, and I wrote down five of them. One of them was Houston, so you got that for us. But I ultimately have to memorialize that they have an 81% chance to win. That's amazing. 81. The average fan, and I'm putting myself in that, would think it's even higher. Like, you know, but I get
Starting point is 00:10:17 what I mean. A conservative modeler would say. Yes. That's why I'm telling you. Like, for example, you know, the majority of my win totals end up being somewhere between 55 and 60. Okay. So to get 80. Okay. Where is, I'm putting you on the spot here.
Starting point is 00:10:35 Yeah, I have a right in front of me. Yeah. Where is your lion's percentage of winning this week against the Steelers? It is. They are favored by seven points. The lions are, oh, dang it. I hate this. Five.
Starting point is 00:10:51 Fifth most confident. Okay, but what's the percentage? 57%. Okay, but that's not that crazy. No. Like, if you were, if you were, you're, you know, hoping that something good or bad was going to happen to you and you hear you have a 57% chance good, 43%. Right.
Starting point is 00:11:06 You wouldn't feel that good about it. No. There are a lot of close ones this week because a lot of, like, some of these ones that are worth nothing have surprisingly close. Like there's a lot of volatility in outcomes that don't matter. Like Tennessee and Kansas City. Exactly. And so that was like, what the heck? One of the reasons why I struggled to pick this week was the games,
Starting point is 00:11:24 and there's five of them with two teams that are not in contention against each other. Right. I struggled with those types of games. And so that's why I went here, and I'm on the same side as you. And I know you're not going to go against your lions for this. So I'm going Pittsburgh plus seven. Okay. Now, it's one of those games.
Starting point is 00:11:41 I have them only winning by six, so. Okay. There you go. Yeah. So then we'd be on the same side. Yeah. That's right. Okay.
Starting point is 00:11:48 I was thinking you said five. You've been fifth most confident. I'm sorry, six points, the fifth in terms of confidence. Okay. But you have the Steelers covering. And honestly, that six scenario is a huge reason why I really like the Steelers in this game because I think they can underperform. I think they can be a little disappointing in this game defensively and lose the game 30 to 24.
Starting point is 00:12:10 And we cover. And by we, I'm on the Steelers Bandwagon this week. Why? Seven points is a lot for a game. You're on the Steelers Bandwagon to win. or to cover? I picked the Lions to win on our show game debut,
Starting point is 00:12:24 so I got to go buy that. Putting my money where my mouth is. But I wouldn't be surprised. And that's one of my maxims in making this, is if you wouldn't be surprised that the team is going to win straight up and you're getting a big number,
Starting point is 00:12:36 usually for me it's six or more. And I'm like, I can see them winning that game. I think this would be a good win for the lions. I think the numbers, and this is where I'll ask you, the numbers love the lions
Starting point is 00:12:48 right now, I feel like. of the underlying numbers. DVOA, for instance, has them as the number three team in the entire NFL. And that's crazy to me. I know you're making a skeptical of you. I know your numbers don't have that.
Starting point is 00:13:02 But I think because they're so good offensively, they are the number one scoring team in the league, that some of the models, and maybe yours is in there, they have them as a six-point favorite against an eight-and-six Cilers team. What are they seeing in the lines that maybe look at them as a better team
Starting point is 00:13:19 than maybe I do right now. Leverage, because they're taking more risks. And the Steelers, to me, the Steelers' defense, not being the Steelers' defense that we're used to, means that when you take risks like going front and forth down like the Lions do, then if they work even two-fifths of the time, right, 40% of the time, then you're going to score a touchdown instead of. I think that when I look at a seven-point win for the Lions in this scenario,
Starting point is 00:13:43 I think what it's saying is that the Lions risk-risiness on offense. is overvalued compared. Like, I would have thought it would be four points. Right. That sounds right. Four or five points. I wouldn't have thought a full touchdown. And it goes back to something we talk about on NFL Daily a lot.
Starting point is 00:14:01 Do you value the entire season's worth of data, or do you value the last three or four weeks? And I think when I'm looking at the Lions and thinking about the players that they're missing, Sam LaPorte is not coming back. Brian Branch is not coming back. Kirby Joseph, he hasn't come back. yet, and when he does, will he be, okay? We don't know about that.
Starting point is 00:14:24 Lions fans right now are like, but do we get Christian Mahogany, the guard? Maybe, maybe. But the offensive line is not coming back to being a dominant offensive line. Now, one of the reasons why I'm a little dangerous, it feels like I'm walking into a trap seven points. And then I'm believing a little bit
Starting point is 00:14:41 in what I've seen from Aaron Rogers the last couple weeks where I think he's at his best two games of the season in a row. I'm like, okay, you're showing, you guys are showing me some development on offense. T.J. Watt, not expected to play because of the lung situation. And then Nick Herbig, who is a dynamite replacement for T.J. Watt is out of practice, left the game late against Miami.
Starting point is 00:15:01 It seems like he might miss this game with a hamstring injury. And so suddenly you're losing two of the best pass rushers in the AFC, like in the league. Like Herbig's in the top 10, 15 for pass rush for win rate, all that stuff. So you're losing two big pass rushers. You give Jared Gough some time. it might be like I would take the over in this game big time I like tons of points for both teams I would like the lions over team total for sure yeah I have but I actually kind of I have big time over I do not like where the lion's defense is at right now so that that's the big reasons I kind of think the Steelers can keep up a little bit in a shootout and it's a one score game I'm with you I just okay okay so I told you I don't like the games with nothing to play for however I do think one there's one that I like enough of what to play for to pick for them.
Starting point is 00:15:52 And that's Tyler Shuck. The New Orleans the New Orleans Saints. I like that. Quietly Tyler, so it's four and a half points at home, the Saints are favored over the Jets. And I think what I've seen from Tyler Shuck in this situation and also the fact that the Jets are on historic pace of not having any interceptions
Starting point is 00:16:08 this season, even if they have one, that's still not going to be nowhere near being good at intercepting the ball. But I'm looking at this and I'm like, he's trying to prove that he's the quarterback to build around there. The Saints, they're good at, they're sneaky good at stopping inside runs. And that's kind of the bag of tricks that Breece Hall and the Jets like to try to run. I don't trust a darn thing about this Jets. I know they fired their defensive coordinator. I get it. I think it's mean to fire a defensive
Starting point is 00:16:34 coordinator after trading away Quinn Williams and Soss Gardner with three games left. Whatever, not my decision. But that's a weird decision, in my opinion. And I don't think that gives you the bump of being like, yeah, now we're going to go out there and beat the pants off of Tyler Shuck and the New Orleans Saints. No, they're going to run the football. They're going to have some nice passes. Shuck has done a good job of running the football himself. They've won two.
Starting point is 00:16:55 They just beat the Panthers. They can do it. And they're at home. And they just beat the Bucks. Shuck is playing really well. I love that one. I don't know why I didn't. I understand it was nothing for it.
Starting point is 00:17:04 I mean, there's not because these games where there's nothing. But I think Shuck has something. Shuck's sitting here being like, I'm your quarterback. He looks really good. They have a couple injuries. Devon Valle and Devin Neal, but those aren't like superstar players. They're just playing a lot of snaps for them. He is playing as well, certainly, as any rookie quarterback right now in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:17:23 And you know what's interesting about this one? Because I agree. We do an over-under pod at the beginning of the year. Yeah. It was me and Nick Wright this year. Yeah. And Under Saints, five and a half was one of my picks. And they were at 2 and 10 a couple weeks ago.
Starting point is 00:17:39 And you were feeling good. So they would have had to win four out of five to finish the year to pull that off. If they win this game, that's three straight. And then they only need one more. And the two games remaining are at Tennessee, at Atlanta, two games where they're going to have an opportunity to win the game. The odds makers know what the heck they're doing, huh? I might lose that. I might lose that.
Starting point is 00:17:59 It's okay. It's okay. But I hope I do, because that'll mean you were right. And they got a cover four and a half. I think they can't. Last one, thought about a few different big favorites. You took the Texans. So I'm going to take my other big favorite, and that's Buffalo minus 10.5.
Starting point is 00:18:13 I just don't think the Cleveland defense is in the same place right now as it was. Who's playing for them? Other than Miles Garrett, it's like, we get these emails about who's potentially out. And the Brown's one, it's like this long. And you're like, well, maybe you should just tell me who's playing because most teams it's like this long. It's like a, it's like a Dostoevsky novel. It is. If you look at the Browns just.
Starting point is 00:18:36 And very dark just like Dostoevsky. Yes. And a lot of those players are offensive linemen for the Browns. Well, and then like Denzel Ward and Carson Swishinger, like, there's some other ones too. He says he'll play, but he keeps missing practice, so we'll see. Didn't he say he was going to play last week, too? I don't know. Fair.
Starting point is 00:18:55 When you don't have any offensive linemen, I actually think the bills overall up front have been better down the stretch. They are healthier. And you don't have any offensive linemen. Yeah. I mean, that was the thing about. They're going to look better if there's no offensive linemen. That was the thing about Shadir's performance last week.
Starting point is 00:19:10 He did not play great, but you're literally playing with one starting offensive. Well, they blitz. And he was like, uh, ah! Like, it's not going to. Last two games for the Browns at home, just went to check this, lost by 18 to the 49ers in bad weather too, which should have kept the score down, and lost to the Titans, which is, you know, that's a bad loss. So I think sometimes with these meaningless teams right now, you're at home, I don't think that's an advantage. It's just bad vibes there. That place is miserable. And on top of everything else, this is more of an anti-Browns than it is a pro-bills. I'm very pro-bills right now.
Starting point is 00:19:49 I think Josh Allen could still win the MVP. Whatever those odds are right now, I would take them in terms of the value. He's definitely not first. He's pretty distant. He's a pretty distant third. I think he's got a real chance here. Although you'll have to put those in. We'll see.
Starting point is 00:20:05 They have the worst special teams, the Browns, in the entire NFL, according to DVOA, by a decent amount. So, I mean, your offense is struggling. The one thing that was good was your defense, but now you're getting. and run on every week, and the bills are great at running the ball. So I could see them. This would be like an Eagles Raiders situation where they're winning this game by 25, 30 points. All right.
Starting point is 00:20:29 Can we pick a Saturday game? Is that fair game? Absolutely. Okay. Because I like the Packers to cover one. They're road favorites by one point in Chicago. I know there's no Michael Parsons, I'm aware. Heard that.
Starting point is 00:20:42 You know, I actually heard about that somewhere? I picked the Packers too, so I'm with you. I didn't feel good. That was just a stay away for me, but that is my pick for that game. I just, I know that there's a lot of, like, hype around the Bears. I understand, but there's no Romo Dunez. Yeah. Who else are we missing?
Starting point is 00:20:59 Luther Burden. So even if you're, even if DJ Moore's been playing great, which he has, you still now have a much different defensive capability of shutting down the past catching game. It's not even like you were seeing Caleb Williams lighted up through the air. Anyways, I mean, he had a nice game last week, but like, Okay. Like, I need to see it more consistently before I'm willing to go with that. But the Packers are really hard to run on.
Starting point is 00:21:23 And I understand that Micah Parsons is not there, so they're going to, whatever, but they're built to not allow explosive runs or passes. So if they, even if they get a few yards, it's okay because they're better in the red area, and they're good at not allowing explosives. So I just think that the Packers show the Bears why they're still the class of the division. Big LaFleur game. You know, nobody believed in us after the Micah Parsons thing. Wait, can we do that?
Starting point is 00:21:50 We should do that handshake. That was so awkward with Ben, that, like, that was so good. Just the drive-by. Ben Johnson's hilarious. I mean, he, you know, he did say. He did say, I think his shirt will come off after this one if he was. I mean, you don't say that you enjoyed beating Matt Lafleur twice a year, so you stay in the division unless he really did enjoy beating Matt Lafleur twice a year.
Starting point is 00:22:08 Bring back just like the smallest bit of trash talking. It's fine. These are confident men who trash talk a lot in real life. Let's do it in front of a microphone again. I'm with you on the trash talk, but just be good at it. He's pretty good. That's good. He's weird.
Starting point is 00:22:26 Is he weird? I kind of get the ink. They like him. I'm not saying he's not a great coach, but like I just feel like maybe he's like pulling it back, but like I kind of get the ick when he's talking about it. Like I wish he would just say what he was going to say. Right. It was kind of like everyone got really fired up with the taking the shirt off thing.
Starting point is 00:22:43 And I get that he got free hot dogs for the entire city. There was a whole story behind that. They said if he had taken off his shirt, then everyone gets free hot dogs at this hot dog stand. So he did everyone a solid in Chicago. I don't know. I'm going to ask. While they're still there in Chicago,
Starting point is 00:23:00 you've got to get as many hot dogs as you can. That was actually the biggest reason why I support your pick is when the Bears put out that statement to their season ticket holders that they're considering every possibility, including moving to Gary, Indiana, a couple days before you play the Packers. Bad Juju! It's an embarrassment.
Starting point is 00:23:21 That's what bad organizations do is put out a statement about possibly moving to Gary, Indiana, days before playing the Packers in the biggest game in a decade. Michael Jackson is from Gary, Indiana. And when you drive through it, so I'm from Michigan, I lived in Chicago, I went to a business school there, all that stuff. You drive home, you go through Gary, Indiana. You don't stop in Gary, Indiana.
Starting point is 00:23:42 The fine folks of Gary taking... I'm sure that there are nice areas of Gary, but where they would put a stadium is not where you would have the nice areas. They're not tearing up any nice areas. It just gives too much trash-talking fodder for Packers fans. It's Indiana, not Illinois. Now Bears fans got to be on social all weekend,
Starting point is 00:24:02 and they're going to hear everyone calling them the Gary Bears, you know, the Gary Bears. Who knows? I don't think that's anything that would ever actually happen, kind of like when the Patriots almost move. to Hartford, but it's one more reason to take the Packers. All right, Cynthia's picks to recap. She's got the Texans
Starting point is 00:24:18 minus two touchdowns, 14. The Saints minus four and a half and the Packers. What did that line settle at? I think it's minus one. The Packers being a one point favorite. I took the Chargers. They are two and a half point underdogs in Dallas.
Starting point is 00:24:33 Love it. Way too much respect there for the Cowboys. Feel a little less good, but okay, about the Steelers plus seven. And then I have the bills minus 10 and a half in Cleveland. Let's keep the winning streak going. Let's do it. We're trying to make it 12 straight weeks.
Starting point is 00:24:52 We have even more wins in the feed coming your way on Saturday. Really excited for everyone to hear this episode. It's going to be me and Ollie Connolly, the Saturday Sicko Show. We're going to go through every coaching situation in the league and decide who's keeping their job. Who's not? Could Harbaugh or Tomlin go and then propose some good. Which Harbaugh? John Harbaugh.
Starting point is 00:25:13 I'm just messing with you. Jim is safe. I'm just messing. He's not going back to Michigan. Especially after beating Dallas. No. We will be before. We will be back on Saturday with that.
Starting point is 00:25:24 And thanks to Cynthia. We'll see you next week. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies. to evaluating team-building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters.
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