NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 16 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: December 20, 2024

Gregg Rosenthal and Cynthia Frelund are back with another Man vs. Model head-to-head pick battle! Our duo deliver their picks for week 16 of the NFL regular season, with games including an AFC North battle between the Browns and Bengals, a potential rebound for the Lions versus the Bears, a crucial game between the Eagles and Commanders, and more!NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're ready for eight days of football. 10. Oh my gosh. I'm Greg Rosenthal in the Chris Wesleyan podcast studio. I'm with my friend, Cynthia Freeland. And yes, it's your favorite time of the week, Cynthia. We're going to make three picks against the spread. Well, today, we're matching. Yes. So, I mean, we got our producer pointed that out to us, so I had to point out to you. But I'm wearing the hat because I haven't been to makeup yet. And I have a big zit on my friend. Oh, you look beautiful. But I like the look with the hat. Little, you know, it's a fun, it's a fun like, you know, holiday hat. It's a little soft. And, you know, it works, I think. I feel like it really adds to the ambience.

Yes. And, you know, most of our listeners are as podcast, you know, listeners. But the YouTube numbers are growing. We appreciate you all. I saw the subscribers went over 50K. Let's get up numbers game. We're at 10K at Numbers game. Let's go.

Get that going. Everyone follow Cynthia there. And let's throw the records up from last week, another successful week of Man versus Machine. We both went two and one. I'm at 26 and 19 on the season. You're a couple games back, but you're well in the green. And so we're doing well.

Let's keep it rolling. Let's have you go with the first pick. All right. Right now, what are you seeing as the line for the Cincinnati Bengals against the rounds? Seven and a half was the last time I saw it. Yep. I think even though I hate that number, seven and a half,

just because it feels like, you know, a little bit of disaster is annoying. I still really like it. So I'm going to go with the Cincinnati Bengals. I have a nine point win, and you know my model is pretty conservative. So if I'm going that high, we just saw reports, Miles Garrett, like not a fully healthy. That's also good news. So if you're on my side of this equation, so I'm going with, I'm going with that one first. How do you feel about that one?

I like that. It scares me. I don't know what the line would be with James, but the fact that it's Dorian Thompson-Robinson, DTR, makes you feel a lot better about it. I would imagine, is James really worth like two or three points over DTR? That's crazy. Because to me, actually, he would be. I'm good with the Bengals. Now, if it was Bengals minus six even and James was involved,

I wouldn't want to get involved just because of the variance factor. Well, I've also got possibly no David and Joku. So it does make it a lot easier to defend Jerry Judy if he's pretty much the only past catching threat. So that's the other thing, too. Potentially no David and Joku, some banged up defensive points. I think Joe Burrow wants to, he's out there trying to prove something. So again, I don't love that number as like a number, seven and a half.

Ugh, the hook. Woof. But. Right. And a team that at times they've had some trouble with. And yeah, I do think it matters when you get this late in the season. Heck yeah. And you have one team that is playing for something.

Yep. The Bengals have a very realistic chance to be alive in the playoff hunt in week 18. Now, whether whether they could get everything to work out for them, We'll see. But if they can win this week, they get Denver next week and they could basically stay alive by beating Denver and then you get to week 18

and you never know. So I like that. I have a pulse. I just, yeah. Okay. One of my favorite picks of the year. Year? Right here. Okay.

It's your Lions minus six and a half. Oh, dear God. There's so much concern about what they don't have. Oh, they don't have this. They don't have that. Well, yeah, there are 16 defense players on IR. You know what? A lot. You know what I'm concerned about that?

Winning. When they play other good teams. Correct. the Detroit Lions are one of the best regular season teams I've ever seen. Now, they're not exactly that team anymore. The two losses they had last week

weren't just regular players. Aleem McNeil was the most valuable player on their defensive line that was still healthy and Carlton Davis is really important for what they do. I worry about that a little more longer term. But let's not get carried away. Ali McNeil and Carlton Davis are not moving

the line X amount of points. Great teams respond. They're a great team. They're playing a dead bear's team. Like Thomas Brown unfortunately got put as a head coach where he would be better off probably just calling the plays. There's too much going on. I've watched the Bears offense the last couple weeks and the progress that they were making under Thomas Brown seems to have backslid. Caleb Williams is a little lost. I actually think the lines have enough up front still to be very competitive defensively in this game. And they're plenty healthy on

offense. I miss David Montgomery, but in this game, it's not going to matter that much. I would say my over under for Lions offensive points in this game is about 37. They are going to want to shut everyone up. They're going to have the best pregame speech. They're going to be as focused as possible after that loss. I just think we get the very best of the lion. So I honestly would, we can't do this on this show. But like, you know, if you're out there and you're actually doing things, doing things, you can make alternate lines on your own. I would jack this thing up. Okay. And see if we can go way over it. because that's how I feel about

this Lions team. I'm going about 37 to 17. That feels great to me. Well, your lips to whoever's in charge's ears and I hope that plays out like that. I am not putting them as one of my favorites. Okay. I do have that happening. It has nothing to do with you being a Lions fan. This was really the one

when I was like, okay, who are the one? Oh, I was like, oh, bears, that's going to be minus 10, right? And it's like, no, it's minus six and a half. I love that. I think that's a great number. That's an incredible one. Okay, I'm sticking to my theme. I have a theme this week and that's teams that are hungry for a playoff against teams that maybe aren't. Got it?

I love it. Well, this team's already in the playoffs. They've already won their division, but they're looking at the one seed. That's the bills. They are 14. Wow. At least, was it 14 or 14?

They're 14. I don't care. They're playing at home. They're playing the Patriots. I'm not saying that I don't think the Patriots are good. I'm saying I think the bills need to figure some things out with their passing game. And I think this will be the game that they're not going to like, you know, experiment, but I think they're going to experiment.

I don't think this is going to be a Josh Allen rushes for 60 yards type of game. I think this is going to be a game where they hand the ball off to James Cook, but they get in the end zone. They pass the ball to the intermediate level, but they get in the end zone. I know that Christian Gonzalez is really, really good. Don't get me wrong. I love him. But there's other places where you can pass the ball that aren't Christian Gonzalez.

And this is a situation where if these bills want to potentially kind of make up the, they, if there's any way that the, that the Texans knock off the chiefs, which I don't have happening, but we'll already know that result by the time the bills play, then I would expect big time by the bills. Wow. 14.

That's a lot. Sometimes I'm only going by the math, man. Yeah, I love it. The bill's offense, yeah, if I said 37 was about my overrunner for Lions points, that's about the same for bills against the Patriots. The risk would be Jake May is playing at a high level. He's great.

Not getting a lot of help, but could they get some, But they need to put some stuff on defense, too, and this is at home. I like it. I mean, I don't love it, but I like it. I like it because you did it. And I like whatever you do, Cynthia. Even if you're going against my Patriots.

I see what you did. Not going against your Patriots. I have three other games written down, and I'm struggling with which to pick. But over the course of this season, fading the Cowboys has been a winning proposition for it. That's been the move. Now, lately I haven't been. for the most part, and their defense is really playing better since Michael Parsons is back. But I think the Bucks indoors, I know it's in Dallas, but I'm not giving them much credit

for home field advantage. I'd rather have a climate controlled environment for an elite offense. And that's what the Buccaneers are with Liam Cohen and Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans going for a thousand yards. And the way their offensive line is playing. So I think this is the rare team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are favored by four in Dallas, that they can. really slow down what the

Cowboys do well. And the numbers would say the Cowboys are actually one of, if not the best pass-rush team in the league since Parsons got back. They are that good. Absolutely. And that's kept them in games that helped them win last week against Carolina. But Tampa's offensive line is kind of a story that hasn't been

talked about that much. Getakie and Wurfs are as good as a tackle duo as there is. They might have some pro bowlers on the inside of Cody Mock. Like, they're really good. And so I think they can mitigate the one thing Dallas is special about. Cowboys have figured some things out offensively. So it's why I was saying I'm struggling between these three.

I don't love, love any of my other picks. But I do think Tampa Bay minus four, when I go to bed Saturday night, I'm feeling easy that that's one of my three man versus model picks. And you might have to stay up late, you know, on the East Coast to watch this. Because I don't think it's going to be some sort of blowout, but I think they win by seven or eight and they get it done for me and get me another win. All right, give me your third. I was, I like that one a ton

But oh, you could do that as well if you want Okay, I think we should, I think we I don't love love it but I like it a lot You're trying to catch up I see Yeah So in an interesting turn of events I know that it's always You know, divisional games

Got to throw out the record But this could potentially be the Eagles Last Away game Until the freaking Super Bowl Think about it If they go into whatever they You know FedEx Field

But it's where is it Landover it? Landover, Maryland. Thank you. Landover, Maryland, because I know there was a big, like, fight over, you know, they wanted to move it back to D.C. Elon Musk said, no, it's not going to say it. But I was reading about that earlier.

But ultimately, they go into Landover, they take the win by at least three and a half points, by more than three and a half points, and then they don't play on the road again until a potential Super Bowl. That is bananas. That is scary for the rest of the NFC. Yep.

They are a team that knows how to win games. like they won against the commanders the first time around. Now, if you remember, Jalen Hertz was quite sloppy in that game. In the beginning of the game was not great. And then by the end, just the physical dominance that they had on both lines

just overwhelmed it. And they didn't even need great quarterback play. They have such a huge margin for error that I don't, am I allowed to join you as my third pick? So you will see. I had two more picks written down. I like it. And I just wanted to get another game in.

I just feel comfortable with that. Not amazing because I think that line three and a half, everyone loves that the way that the Eagles have looked. It looks too easy. And yet, show me the good game that the commanders have played against quality competition. Actually, show me like the great commanders game that they've played, period, over the last couple of months.

Tight. Okay, it was the Titans. I mean, they did what they needed to do. But I don't know if I think that was a great team. the fact that they stopped moving the ball against the Saints in the Superdome and let them back in that game coming off of thereby. I just don't think they're ready for this moment. And quietly, they've had some injuries on the offensive side that I think hurt them.

Noah Brown and Austin Eckler being. And Zach Ertz may not play. It sounds like Zach Ertz is probably out for this game. So I'm going to go with you, Philly minus three and a half. I only have one Gregstra as our producer Hytham would say this week. the Greg Stras did well the last couple times they did him. I do like the Giants

plus eight and a half in Atlanta. Agreed. It was actually my number two pick until I looked at the injury report and they're not going to have Burns or O'Kareke in this game it appears. They haven't been at practice this week and if those guys get healthy I actually like that one better

than Philadelphia. But as of this taping, they're not at practice and that's just too much. They're already so injured on the defensive side of the ball and now you're taking away two of their best three remaining players. I hate taking like a Falcons team with a rookie quarterback. Eight and a half is just so much. It seems ridiculous to me. So if I had to choose the side, I'm still on the Giants, but it's just not one of my three favorite picks of the week. I jump just over to your side. I'm sorry

for doing that and taking your Eagles fine, but that is how I feel. You're the one who has the box with the extras. When I was talking about sleeping at Like when I go to sleep by night on Saturday, if I know Burns and O'Caricate aren't there on top of all the other problems that the Giants have, I just like, I don't want to bother with it. Although I do think they'll probably cover eight and a half with Drew Locke. I like. I like lock being in there better than DeVito. Yeah. I mean, but I also think like the, I mean, if Pennix surprises them with some stuff, it could be nine points. You know what I'm saying? Like it's, I'm not saying it'll be like some crazy thing. Like last minute, you know, they're trying some things at the end instead of like a, like a, like a. I'm like, like, trying to do a, like a two-minute drill in the middle of the second half to try to learn some stuff, right? Like, I don't understand this move necessarily. You were still a playoff contender. Oh, I love the move. I don't hate the move, but I don't understand.

I guess I just don't quite, why not put him in there a couple of times for a few change of pace drives? Kind of like the Steelers do with Justin Fields, as opposed to full tilt being like, you down, you up. Because he's a lefty versus a righty. Like, that stuff all matters. just because Kirk gave him no choice in my mind that he started last week was the week that he just played like a guy with zero confidence that like he was almost begging to be taken out

I'm not locked into this game because I think Pennix brings some real variance that you could tell me that they win by 25 and like that wouldn't totally shock me because they are a better team their defense has been playing better they could blow him out but because of the variance he's a rookie quarterback

and they're not that great a team either like they could lose the game outright So I just, I just ultimately didn't want to go there on this. Giants, please listen to me. Don't win this game. Okay. Yeah, you're right. Don't win that one pick because you know what the...

Don't win this game. Oh, hell. Let's go for another Greg Strat. I'm going to take the Raiders 2 minus 1 just in your support because the Raiders, they're going to help you out, Giants. They're going to mess up this draft pick and they're going to beat the Jaguars. That is so Raiders to win. Because they're playing so hard for Antonio Pierce.

Every week, it's a very competitive. Spirited team I don't know I love AP but an AP former giant There we go Yeah

Another because But he can help out His own team Don't win the game Numbers game Is the YouTube show The channel

Yeah The show Game DeVue It's the other show On NFL Network Where we'll be Picking all the games You can catch that too

On YouTube The NFL feed sends it out As week 16 picks I believe And Whatever that is Look for it

Enjoy your family Like I said, we got eight days of NFL action out of 10. That is a wild stretch. Let's go. Start stretching. We got a lot of work to do. We got a lot of work to do. All right.

Start from the old pencil. When Cynthia is burying my Patriots, two touchdown underdogs on the road in week 16, that's when you know football is back because they're done. Hey, everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get. your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael F. Florio, and together we host the NFL fantasy football podcast.

Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL fantasy football podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the

iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. This is an IHeart podcast.