NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 17 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: December 26, 2025

Gregg Rosenthal and NFL Network's Cynthia Frelund give you their picks for Week 17 and they aren't afraid to take risks. They start with Texans vs Chargers followed by Packers vs. Ravens (02:30), 49ers vs. Bears (05:00), Rams vs. Falcons (07:15), Patriots vs. Jets (08:50), and Dolphins vs. Buccaneers (11:13).  Note: time codes approximate. NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. You hear that? That's the sound of the group chat going off when your fantasy team scores another touchdown in the playoffs. I'm J.J. Zachary-Eason, host of the late-round fantasy football podcast. Every move matters this time of year. So tune in daily to help build a championship roster to beat your friends,

your family, and that one coworker who won't stop talking. Literally. Listen to late-round fantasy football in the I-heart race. radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front

offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up? It's Cam Jordan. I'm back with season three of your favorite podcast, the Off the Edge with Cam Jordan podcast. Tap in every Wednesday to hear conversations with my friends and stars for the NFL, the sports world in general, and entertainment. About anything from teams and players making waves to pop culture.

And I'll take you inside my journey through my 15th season in the NFL. Looking forward to you joining me this season, the season of more. More on the Off the Edge with Cam Joined podcast. Catch new episodes every Wednesday on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Brought to you by Liberty Mutual Insurance. Only pay for what you need. Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty.

I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael F. Florio, and together we host the NFL fantasy football podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL fantasy football podcast, your ultimate. source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet, we've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a little Christmas drama. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesleyan, podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland and the drama that I'm referring to is not whether I can keep the 12 straight winning weeks going. No, we know you can. 13.

No, the drama is, can we get Cynthia to a plane on Christmas Eve on time to see her in laws? We'll find out, which means we got to be efficient here. We're fine. We're going to be totally fine. So if you're listening to this, it's probably the day after Christmas or sometime over the weekend and we hope you had a great holiday. This is the show where we pick three games against the spread each and every week. And yes, as I, as I mentioned, I kept the winning streak going last week. Shout out to the, the Chargers for coming through for me. And let's move on to the week.

17 picks. 31 and 17 on the season. I can't remember even what my other winning pick was, but who cares? Let's get to Cynthia's winning picks this week. What is your first one? I want to start off with a Saturday game because games of consequence feel like better opportunities to pick, especially if you're looking against the spread. So the very first one, the one where we know know who's playing at least at the quarterback position, presumably.

So ultimately, I think that the Texans take care of business and have the upset here at SoFi Stadium. Rainy, there's a tornado warning here in Southern California. Crazy stuff going on here, including the fact that I still think that when it comes down

to which team will be able to exact their will on the other team's offense more efficiently and effectively. I mean, between DeNeil Hunter and, you know, Will Anderson, Jr., it's just going to be a lot of pressure and a lot of Justin Herbert's just going to have to contend with a lot, which is something he's been doing all season. However, I think Houston has the edge in this one. I'm torn on this one. As you know, we tape their show Game Day View, which if you're curious, you can always check out on YouTube.

We appreciate everyone who watches this show on YouTube. everyone should also be subscribing and checking out numbers games starring Cynthia Freeland. But it's put up on the NFL feed as our NFL pick show. That's every game. And I pick up the Chargers. But I don't feel strong about this one. And certainly last year's playoff game has you worried

that the matchup for the Chargers is just a bad one. And I was a little surprised at actually that they were favored in this game. Do you know that Will Anderson Jr. on third down has 12 more pressures than the next closest player whose name is Miles Garrett? Just saying. That's a good. three. Good call. And I know you have respect for DVOA. You trust your model more, but

they have a pretty big difference between these two teams. So they would support you. Number five team in the league. Well, when they support me, I like them. Yes, is the Texas. And the Chargers down there at 14 because their offense is so inconsistent. That was a stay away for me. A game I am going to pick. I really like four games this week. And so I'm struggling. I kind of want you to pick one of them. And then we'll see if that actually happen. No, I mean, and then it'll just like get it out of the way for me.

I hate doing this because as we're taping, I'm not sure who's starting a quarterback for the Packers or the Ravens for sure. But the reason I'm comfortable taking it and right now it's three points, it could certainly raise if it looks like it's going to be Snoop Huntley versus Jordan Love, which my gut tells me is the most likely outcome,

but it could be Lamar Jackson versus Jordan Love. It could be Malik Willis. It doesn't matter. The Packers are going to cover this number no matter what it is. I just think that the Ravens are a dead team walking. I'm going to talk about the Bucks a little later, but they're in the same position for me. Okay.

At least this week. Have you ever heard of a phrase called like a death wish? Yeah. You know, like someone who's almost going through, they almost have a death wish. Sometimes teams get a death wish. And it somehow comes out in the form of what happens in fourth quarters of games. Like suddenly, Zay Flowers, it fumbles the ball,

and the defense starts giving up big plays when it comes to the Ravens. I just don't think this is a good team. And I think the Packers lost two brutal games where they played pretty well back to back. But I think they're ultimately a much better team. And I just think these two teams are in different classes. And I think the defense can give the Ravens some problems, you know, send some different looks. But it's really about the offense of the Packers that even if it's Malik Willis, I think it can get a lot done on the ground and just beat this Ravens team and kind of put them out of their misery on Saturday. a night, clinch a playoff spot for themselves and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I mean, look, I think that's very interesting. I'm with you on the entire thing. And I'll add that the Ravens are only getting the fourth lowest pressure rate, meaning they're, you know, very not consistent at getting pressure on any quarterback. Malik Willis played admirably in the loss. Played great. So it's not like, I mean, it's a step down, of course, because Jordan loves in a different class, but like, it's not this massive step down where you're like, oh, no, all hope is

lost, not even, not even a little bit. You just reminded me who my other right pick was last week. Who? Fortunately, it was against your line. Oh, I don't care. Just the steal. Remember I said, it seemed like they're trying to trick us. I had the Lions against the spread.

You also had the Steelers covering. I had the Steelers covering the spread. I just had the Lions winning the game. Let's go to your second pick. Okay. My second pick. What's the number you're seeing for San Francisco on Sunday night? Three.

Okay. Yeah. San Francisco covers that number. Okay. I think the night, is that one of your four? No. Oh, wow. Okay.

I'm trying to guess your four based on knowing who you picked it. every game, didn't pick it. I do like the 49ers in that game if I had to take one, but that, you know, I respect them both enough. I stayed away. Yeah. It's not that I don't like the Bears. I just think when one team's massive strength is to run the football or to create the,

they're approximating runs with some of the stuff they do with Christian McCaffrey and his ability to keep things on the ground and not to them. When you're so turnover reliant, like if you look at point differential, which isn't the only measure of something, someone's success, like the Bears are at like 33 points. So meaning they're winning very close games. We get it. But they're also turnover reliant. When you're so turnover reliant and you're playing Kyle Shanahan the week after he just played

and beat another Shanahan tree guy, I just think he's going to sit there and be like, okay, because that is, talk about a watching film that's really relevant to what you do. That's the same fundamental offense as the Green Bay Packers, right? Different people, different strengths and weaknesses, but the same ideas and concepts, the same trees. So I just, I have struggled to find a way for them to keep that going unless they get some crazy amount of turnovers, but I don't think that happens. I've loved Brock Purdy's decision making lately. I think he's throwing dimes too. Sometimes you watch you, you're like, who threw that spiral? He, he.

Joe, Joe Montana. Complete some highly difficult throws, but sometimes he almost tries too many. And I think he's really had it dialed in of what to go for and what not to. And I just think that offense is a wagon. And so I'm with you. I like that pick. This was just a week. You know how last week I was like,

man, there's only one game I really love too. This week I loved like five. And so that wasn't one of my loves. That was one of my likes. Let's go to another love. Okay. Man,

because if it was actually, if it was my money, what is your third pick going to be? I want to see if it's one of mine. So then you can just take it. You just pointed it so I don't want to. Sure. This one.

Okay. That was going to be one of mine. So I will let you take that. That's perfect. Okay. Sorry. Let's go to the Rams. Okay.

Okay. I'm not going to say that the Rams are going to try harder because they lost. Although the Sean McVeigh has been saying that. He's just like, this is going to make us stronger, this loss. I can see it. Here's what else is going to make you stronger. Having extra rest. I was that to say another day.

Having extra rest against the Atlanta Falcons, three days extra rest at this time of year, I think it's a thing. And then playing the Atlanta Falcons, that's the thing. You just put up 580 yards. on the Seattle Seahawks defense. And now you're going to go up against Rahim Morris, someone you're very familiar with, who really has only had good games this year defensively

when he can confuse the other opponent, when they can send all sorts of blitzes and they get really creative. Just try it against Matthew Stafford. He's seen it all before. Sean McVeigh kind of knows what's coming and they're going to have perfect conditions there in the dome. Not much of a home field advantage,

I don't believe, in Atlanta. And a team that really needs to win the game. And I think they'd love to make a statement and like rest guys in the fourth quarter of this game. And that's how good I think that they are. So good luck trying to convince him. And also it's on Monday night, little MVP magic here. And on the flip side, it's like Kirk Cousins has been good. But he's only been good when he hasn't faced much pressure.

And I think he will face some pressure. So there are seven and a half point favorites. I thought it would be a little more, frankly. I just don't think the Falcons, I know they've won six games and they're not one of the worst teams in the league or anything, but at this point in the season, I would take 10 for the Rams and feel fine about it. Yeah, no, I think that could get bit up too

and I'd be comfortable with it. All right, my last one, New England. Yes, that was one where, like, if it was actually, we're not allowed to bet. And I love that for us. Although this year it would have been profitable for me. But if it was actually my money, I would maybe go with that, but it didn't seem as interesting to me. It almost just seemed

too easy. What would you bid it up to? So like, where is it? What are you seeing right now? Like 16 and a half. It's at 13 and a half right now. So sub 14, that's crazy. So to me, I would have bid it up probably to 16, something that would be more comfortable like that. So when you see the differential of three points, like, hmm, tasty. Especially for your conservative model, to have a number that big. Yes. what is the Brady Cook factor in your model? Unfortunately for Brady Cook, it's the problem with the problem that he has

is that there's a lot of great pieces of this New England defense that are maybe even a little bit underrated like Caleb on Chase on. Like we don't talk about him enough, although his name is fun to say. So we should. But, you know, he was a bargain. And coming off the edge, he's done great.

You know who's might come back this week, by the way? Who? Milton Williams. I wasn't even, I didn't, I was doing this without even factoring Milton Williams in. And he was their big money. They were very spending on him. And it paid off.

So, I don't know, I just think this is a, not to say that the Jets don't have anything to play for, but like, things will seem. I mean, they don't. No team is truly tanking harder than the Jets. Now they put Brock Bowers on injured reserve. Right. That would be much lower on my list, the Raiders game. But that's a little bit of a tank move, but playing Brady Cook is a tank move.

They could be playing to Rod Taylor. But think about it. The Raiders, Pete Carroll, Pete Carroll, he's going to try. Yeah, I'm staying far away from that. Stay the heck away from anything to do with Pete Carroll and the Giants. Just don't do it. Because that could, that one, coin flip, truly a 50-50 to me. Here's a great stat about the Jets that I had ready in case this was my pick.

In the last three weeks, they have been outscored 111 to 36. That is an average of 25 points. And it's not like one week was 40 and the other was 10. No, they were all 22 and above for three straight weeks. And two of those games were against teams that were well under 500. So they weren't even good teams. The Jags beat them up too. And they're a good team.

But yeah, I think the Pat's killed. All right. My last one is one of those teams that beat up on the Jets a couple weeks back. It is the Miami Dolphins plus five and a half. Let's get frisky with Quinn Ewers in week 17. Over the bucks. Don't doubt me. Although I do lose one every week.

It's usually two and one, not three and no. But I've had a winning week, 12 straight weeks. Quinn Ewers in that. game, and this one I wouldn't feel comfort about if I didn't go back and watch it. I thought he played fine. He did. They had three straight turnovers in the third quarter.

Maybe one was his fault, but the other was a fluky tip. The other was a fumble by one of his teammates, and the other was just they got stuffed on a fourth and one. And when I talked about the death wish, I just got bad vibes about this Bucks team.

And so I'm taking the... You have worse vibes about the Bucks than the Dolphins. No. But the bucks... But the bad vibes have already passed. Like the dolphins have already absorbed their bad vibes. Sort of. They're in a post-bad vibe world.

It's more that close, late in games, they're playing like Baker Mayfield plays. Just a little frenetic. And I can see them winning this game. I initially picked them to win this game. But five and a half is just a lot for me for a team that doesn't do anything well right now. If you kind of look at all their underlying metrics like you do,

Run defense is okay, but I don't think they'll be good on the outside. They're slower against Devon A-Cham. Everything else is below average. Like run offense, run passing offense, passing defense, especially like they're just a mediocre team. These, to me, are two mediocre teams. The bucks are like two and seven in their last nine games. Yeah, no, it's not good.

That's pretty brutal. And the dolphins, they're okay. So to me, this is like one of those coin flip games. That's how I see it. And so the fact that I'm getting five and a half means I'll take. take the five and a half. And it means on game day view, since I truly do believe in my heart, it's a coin flip game. I might as well just take the dolphins to win. Because we only count the straightups as our. And because you and Patrick are taking me to the woodshed this year. So that's

why you should, you should do it. It's a good strategy. I'm, um, I'm doing much better against the spread than I am straight up. So, um, that's it. We did it. We did it. Thank you so much. Um, Cynthia, you are the best. Like I said, check out, uh, numbers. Just so you guys all know, you think he's cool when you listen to him on this podcast. He's like, nobody thinks. 10 times better in real life. You know what Cynthia did, though? She baked 11 different types of cookies. She spent an entire day.

More than that. Entire week and brought in 11 different types of selections of cookies for everyone in makeup and hair and production to have. I'm extra. That's the kind of woman that Cynthia is. All right, we've got to get you to your in-laws. Merry Christmas. To you, Cynthia, and to everyone listening. We will be back.

In the audio feed, in on YouTube. Going three-no this week. Yes. I'm calling it. I'm calling my shot. We're going to talk about the Christmas games. We're going to recap that. I'm going to have Will Gavin.

My friend from Talk Sport. We'll do that on Friday afternoon. So have a look for that. We will see you then. You hear that? That's the sound of the group chat going off when your fantasy team scores another touchdown in the playoffs. I'm JJ's.

Zach Gerson, host of the late-round fantasy football podcast. Every move matters this time of year, so tune in daily to help build a championship roster to beat your friends, your family, and that one co-worker who won't stop talking. Literally. Listen to late-round fantasy football on the I-Heart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move to Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL

rookies. To evaluate team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sundays. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up? It's Cam Jordan. I'm back with season three of your favorite podcast. The Off the Edge with Cam Jordan Podcast. tap in every Wednesday to hear conversations with my friends and stars for the NFL, the sports world in general, and entertainment about anything from teams and players making waves

to pop culture, and I'll take you inside my journey through my 15th season in the NFL. Looking forward to you joining me this season, the season of more, on the Off the Edge with Cam Joined podcast. Catch new episodes every Wednesday on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Brought to you by Liberty Mutual Insurance. Only pay for what you need. Liberty I'm Marcus Grant And I'm Michael Fiorio And together we host

The NFL Fantasy Football Podcast Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast Your ultimate source for player news Draft Tips and Winning Strategies Whether you're a rookie manager Or a fantasy vet

We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast On the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast, guaranteed human.