NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 17 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: December 27, 2024

Gregg Rosenthal and Cynthia Frelund are back with another Man vs. Model head-to-head pick battle! Our duo deliver their picks for week 17 of the NFL regular season, with games including a divisional matchup between the Cardinals and Rams, a draft stock sensitive game in New Orleans, a must-win for the Falcons against the Commanders, as well as an equally important game for the Buccaneers versus the Panthers.NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Welcome to NFL Daily, where Teddy Bridgewater was never far away for us. He's back. And we're back here in the Chris Wesleying podcast studio. Yes, it's your favorite time a week. It's the man versus machine pick segment with my good friend, Cynthia Breeland. Yes, we have Teddy Bridgewater back on your lions. And we've got you back. How was your Christmas? It was great. I'm still full. I try to button my jeans and we got some work to do. Okay.

I feel gross today. How about you? I feel fine. I'm doing well. I was the best gift. Oh, the best gift For the kids I already mentioned this on our preview show on NFL Daily The best gift I got was Walker said he listened

to the podcast they did on Monday night with Nick Shook and he said it was great so I can't think of it. But what about the kids? Like what was the best like when the kids

like this is for kids what was the best open gift? It's kind of predictable but it's like just like a video game Got it. Got it. Got it.

Was already like, Oh my God! A little bit. They're getting older but it's not quite as crazy. We're getting old. We're in week 17. We were just little babies back in week one.

Let's put up the records for last week. We both went one and two. This is the first time this has happened in a while where we both had losing weeks. Overall, we've been picking well in the second half of the season. I'm at 27 and 21. It's about a 55%. Cynthia's at 25 and 23. A couple games back,

but I'm feeling better about this week than I did last week. There were four clear games. I liked a lot this week. And so the only hard part was, picking, you know, which one to eliminate. But I like these. Maybe I'll just start. Yeah, you start.

Okay. I'm with you. I mentioned Teddy up top. I know it's an off-the-field story, but Teddy Bridgewater is not going to play, you know. Is he going to play lineback? As if this team didn't have great vibes as it was to throw Teddy Bridgewater into the mix in week 17, put him over the top. That's not the reason I'm taking the Lions three and a half, but I do like it.

And I wouldn't be surprised if he is there back. up by the playoffs, whether they pass Tenden Hooker, or maybe he'll just be around. For now, I assume it's Henan Hooker. Okay, minus three and a half. This week, for sure, it's Henan Hooker. Last week, I told you, Lyons minus six and a half was one of my favorite picks all year. They absolutely cruised. I feel like this is a very similar matchup here to the 49ers. Yes, the 49ers are better and it's on the road. But I look at a team that's in the dirt in the 49ers and a team that's playing for everything, possibly playing to clinch the number one overall seed on Monday night. I know some things could happen in between. Dan Campbell says

they're going to play to win no matter what, even if the Vikings won on Sunday night. Technically, the Lions game kind of wouldn't matter for them, but that doesn't matter. The Lions always play to win. All right. The 49ers have no pass rush anymore. I know Nick Bose is out there in spirit. He's not out there making any difference. So zero pass rush whatsoever. against this lion's offense, which is still plenty healthy. Drey Greenlaw is out. Fred Warner's out there with a broken foot. I just feel like the over under on their points. Once again, is about 35.

I love that team total for the Lions. And then on the other side, four of the 49ers five starting off offensive linemen are out. And they're not like big names other than Trent Williams, but two more offensive linemen got hurt their guards last week that are out and they're like looking for a tackle. So I know the Lions have some problems defensively. Do you want me to call Kyle and see if I can get you a job? Sure.

Or just see what he'll lie to you about in terms of the injury reports. Like the 49ers don't have a running game anymore. I know the numbers say they're a better team than most six and eight teams or whatever they are. But I don't care. The Lions are going to win this game. Easy. Love me. Some Lions minus three and a half.

Your lips to whoever's in charge is ears. That's what I say. You picked my team. I'm going to pick your daughter's team. I love the Rams this week. I think that their opportunity Saturday night. against the Cardinals here. Evening night, it's evening our time.

I've right around dusk, sunset with a sunset, NFC West tilt where the Rams are in charge of their own future, basically. I think that they win, what's the line? Six and a half right now. Yeah, okay. Six and a half is a great number. They just got to win by a touchdown. I think so, too.

That's a game where the Cardinals are missing their top two tackles. I think, as you always tell me, offensive line injuries matter a lot. Huge. I think the only thing, you know, the only thing in this game that I'm keeping an eye out for, just because I'm very interested in this looking forward because, like, I would like to see this scenario. So Thursday night, if the Seahawks win Thursday night, it could set up a week 18 where things matter for the NFC West.

I kind of want to see like some, some mayhem. I want more things to matter in week 17. The problem is it comes down to this strength of victory tie break, which the Rams could clinch by the end of week 17. We won't know until after Saturday. night. They have to wait for the Sunday results to happen. All right. My next two picks. Yep. Or my next pick. I was about to say you're

going to go two in a row. Well, they're similar to me. They're both underdogs that I think can win straight up. In fact, I'm picking them to win straight up. I'm going to go second with the one I feel better about. Denver plus three and a half in Cincinnati. To me, this is

one of those picks that you're building towards all season. Picking games. And I know you and Patrick, Claibon, are on the side of me on this one. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. I'm on the other side of you for who wins. I'm on the other side of you for the numbers. That makes me feel better because for this purpose, all I need is Denver to cover the three

and a half. So we both win in that way. I have a feeling, won't the public be on my side, which is a little worrisome in general? Like, won't everyone say, yeah, the Broncos plus three and a half like that, that seems too obvious. But it's been a public kind of year. The public is doing well. I looked at my record against the spread this year because we pick all the,

the games on game day view, 126 to 99. I mean, and if I'm doing that well, I have a feeling the public is doing that well, too. It's about the same percentage as our picks on this show, about 55, 56. Okay, so I think everyone's overreacting too much to recent games in terms of defensive performance. The Bengals have forced a lot of turnovers since week 11. They've definitely been better on defense. The Broncos' defense looked quite bad in primetime last week, and I think people are overreacting.

I care more about the whole season. I don't trust this Bengals defense whatsoever. I think Sean Payton with a little extra rest here can scheme up some great plays. Bo Nix doesn't have to be great. And then I look at the other side where the offensive line for the Bengals has been banged up. I trust this Broncos defense to at least be good enough. They just need to be sound. And even the Bengals last week against the Browns, they were struggling to score in that game.

Joe Burrow is awesome. It's not about that. It's just one team has been better all season long. and I know Bengals have been like a Vegas team all season long, and apparently even for your numbers, they're decent that you have them winning this game. I don't think they win this game. I think the Broncos clinched their playoff spot on Saturday afternoon.

I have a one-point win for the Bengals. It's not like I'm sitting there like, oh, no. No, you're with me. You're two and a half points with you. I'm two and a half points with you. The one thing that's really interesting about this game is the fact that I was trying to find something good about this Bengals defense. I'm trying, right?

because it's been a tough season. Short passes, which is actually not a strength of Bo Nix, is also a strength for this. On short passes, so sub-10 area-yard passes, they have seven interceptions, which is the most in the league. Just a fun fact. I mean, it doesn't really, it's not super predictive. It's not like I'm saying,

and that is the reason that they're not going to win this game. The case against the Broncos is the quarterback match of. Bo Nix coming off, probably the worst two game stretch that he's had since the first two weeks of the season, against a guy who's going to be on some MVP ballots in Joe Burrow. I mean, Joe Burrow should be. Low key, he's taken the most hits this season at 105. Like, people don't talk about that because he's doing such a good job of escaping being sacked.

And we like to say sack totals or whatever. But hits are a problem too. 105 is a lot. A lot of hits. That is a lot, which is, I think he'll get hit some more on Saturday. You'll get hit some more. All right, your second pick. All right.

So my second pick, I feel like. I think I'm scooping you on this one. I want to be with you. We can join sides. We did last week to poor effect. Now, Jalen Hertz's injury did not help us there. We should get an asterisk there. I know.

They were up 14-0 before he went out. I think we're on the same side of this one, but I think that I want to pick the Raiders against the Saints. That's funny. That was my fifth pick. So I was not going to make it here. I wrote down four I loved and one I liked. And that one was the one I liked.

All right. Well, in large part, because the Raiders, they don't seem to be mindful of their, they don't care about where they're drafting. In some ways, some people get mad about this because they're like, we need to get a quarterback. Well, you do need to get a quarterback. However, it is also very, very, very important that you evaluate the current talent on this roster. You don't get to just pick higher and then not make any other moves, right? You have to deal with free agency. They need old linemen.

We know you got to deal with what's going on in defense. they need corners understood there's a lot of needs but they do need to understand is who they currently have that they want to focus on keeping so i mean okay we know max crosbie done brockbauer's done but apart from that like name name me who else that i mean jacobby myers good but not like so over the what if he's trade bait like they need to figure out exactly what they have here and how to map it going forward i think they try to win the game Antonio pierce does not care. He wants to win the game. He doesn't want to sit here and try to play this game of I'm going to try to tank to be worse than. No. He doesn't. They've played hard all year. I've enjoyed how

hard they play. The Saints could get Chris Olive back, but otherwise the injury report for the Saints is not pretty. I'm with you. That was that's an extra pick for mine. It was same same thing last week was a Gregstra. I wish I had made that one of my top three picks, the Raiders. You loved that one last No, I'm into that one. It didn't hit. Okay, my third and final pick, similar to the Broncos pick, is a road underdog that I think will win straight up. I feel less strong about the winning straight up

than I do about the Falcons plus four. I don't think there's much of a difference between these two teams. And I know they have the home field advantage. And so in theory, that's a little edge to the commanders. The edge for the Falcons, I think, is that their defense is playing their best ball of the season right now. I don't really trust Washington's defense. If you look at the overall efficiency, these two defenses are just about the same in terms of DVOA over the course of the season,

but the Falcons are trending up. The commanders are trending up relatively, but they're just mediocre. And I like what I've seen out of Rahim Morris and how he has that group playing finally at the back end. And then I look at the two quarterbacks. And of course, you favor Jaden Daniels over Michael Pennix. But Michael Pennix played really well last week. And he has way better and deeper weapons. The best player in this entire game and the best thing in this entire game is Bajon Robinson and the Falcons running attack lately has really been good. And I think Pennix helps to unlock that.

He has Drake London. He has Darnell Mooney. I actually think he's working with more than Jaden Daniels is, even if the coaching isn't as strong. Either way, I think this is a coin flip. I'm going to take the Falcons in that coin flip if I'm going to bother to pick them to cover. So plus four, love it, that it's more than a field goal. Like I said, this is a week where I'm really feeling my picks.

So if I don't go at least two and one this week, then I'm losing my touch on what's been a good season. Because I feel very good about all three of these. What do you got for your third? Okay, so I'm going to stick with the same theme, and that's the theme of the NFC South. Okay. Because I root for like, you know, I like some chaos and I want the Bucks to win. but also my math says that the Bucks beat the Cardinal, I'm not the Carls, excuse me, the Panthers,

by the number, more than the number. Nice. There's a couple of reasons why, but, you know, it comes back to, you said this theory last week, and I think that you're talking about how when two teams who, one is, you're talking about the Bears, right? Yeah. Two teams, and you're talking about the Vikings and the Bears,

and it was when two teams replay each other and they have a close one the first time, and they did have a close one the first time, the better team and the second one beats up on the other team. So I think that's where this comes. comes into play. And as good as we've seen Chuba Hubbard be, like, I'll give credit where credits do. I still am concerned about some of the things I've seen at the quarterback position. Solved? No. Improved? Yes. And I think this is a hungry team where Baker Mayfield alone will anger this team into a win. And like just Baker Mayfield, he's going to take

40 passing attempts out of, you know, Mike Evans will hit that 91 yard number to keep himself in full running to get that to reach us, you know, 11th season with a, thousand yards. So I think, I think that that one's, I feel really good about that one as well. All right. I like that. So the review, Cynthia's got the Raiders as a one point favorite in New Orleans. I love that you're going with that dog as one of years. And then the Bucks, I like that pick because it's a team coming off a bad loss that absolutely needs for the playoffs. And I trust their offense minus seven and a half. I don't love that pick. And that's why I didn't pick it. But that's a good pick. Rams minus six and a half. My three picks, Atlanta plus four, Denver plus three and a half. and then the Lions on Monday night, minus three and a half.

I mentioned how I loved four picks, and then I liked one more. I was with you on the Raiders as the one I liked. The other one I loved that just got boxed out here was Bill's minus eight and a half. And I was on the other side of that, correctly I might add, about the Patriots last week. I think in a way, it was almost like they lost that game to the Patriots, and this is going to be their response game. I think the Jets have been competing and improving, but this is a Bill's game where everyone on the team knows if we win this game,

we're going to take next week off. We clinch the two seed. We'll have nothing to play for. Everyone wants to get Josh Allen as MVP. And obviously, they're just a much better team. Overall, they're getting a little healthier on defense. They were pretty banged up against the Patriots. So I like them to cover that eight and a half and have that be a blowout.

So I'm with you completely on that one. I consider doing that one. My only problem is that there's a potential for freezing rain there. And freezing rain just sometimes means slop, which sometimes, and if I'm, and if I'm the bills and it's freezing rain and I have this lead that's like seven points, I'm just going to run the air of the football

and try to blow the clock up as opposed to try. Like, that was my only thing. Just, I didn't even know that. I was kind of overthinking the freezing rain situation, but point being is it's just such a big number that freezing rain sometimes makes me mad. I didn't even know that, and that's why I'm glad I have you here

because that would have been my tiebreaker to make it the fourth one anyways, although they're so good. They're so good on the ground with their heavy personnel and everything that they could be great in the freezing rain. They're a bunch of mudders. I'm sure they're fine in the in the,

they're a bunch of mutter. I'm not saying it's wrong. It's just when I was picking three. They're just a couple more that like that was way up there. The weather was going to be just nice and crisp like a crisp winter day. I would have done it. But I think I just, I don't know, freezing rain just. It's been crisp at times here.

I mean, I'm freezing. Dipping into the 40s at night. We're slumming it here in Los Angeles. The dogs were on the porch this morning and their breath was, I could see it. It was wild. I was like,

you guys are nuts. All right. So we did it. We're going to nail it. We're almost there to week 18. Yes. Thank you. You believe it.

Again, check her out. I can believe it. That's because they got you working every day. I just mean it. It seems like it was ages ago when we were when we were kickstart in this season. So I am ready for the playoffs. Everyone check out Cynthia's YouTube page numbers game. It's the hottest.

with the younger demo. It's really going off right now. And yeah, you said it. Week 17, as we tape this, as you listen to this, when there's only 29 regular season games and nine days left until it's playoff time, you know football is back. Hey, everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here.

And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move to Six, we take you inside the game. from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it.

Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant And I'm Michael Florio And together we host the NFL fantasy football podcast Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season Then you need the NFL fantasy football podcast Your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies

Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents Listen to the NFL fantasy football podcast On the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. This is an IHeart podcast.