NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 18 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: January 3, 2025

Gregg Rosenthal and Cynthia Frelund are back with another Man vs. Model head-to-head pick battle! Our duo deliver their picks for week 18 of the NFL regular season, with games including a do-or-die AFC North battle between the Bengals and Steelers, a win-and-in for the Buccaneers versus the Saints and a chance for redemption for the Commanders against the Cowboys.NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we never rest our starters. I'm Greg Rosenthalm here in the Chris Wessling podcast studio with my friend for the last time in the regular season, but the first time in 2025. Cynthia Freeland.

Thank you. Hi. I like the first time better. I'm more of like a fresh start than a like sad goodbye. Oh, but we're not making fresh starts, Cynthia. We're finishing out this season, although I'm bringing you back for 2025 if we can afford you. Yeah, let's look at the records from last week.

That's why I'm talking about not a fresh start. Cynthia went two and one. Great pick with the Raiders, cruised. You loved the Raiders. I love the Raiders. I'm annoyed. I didn't take that. The Bucks, man, even more Cruz City.

They covered by about 30 points. You missed on the ramp. So you're two and one, 27 and 24 on the season. You won back of me. I went one and two. I'm now five over on the season. I said before last week that I was so confident in my picks that if I ended up with a one and two, I would, it would shake my confidence a little.

Are you shook? There's an aster. I'm not shook. I was going to say, I hope not. Not even in the slightest, because I took two teams in the Broncos and the Falcons that I thought would win straight up and were both underdogs, three to four points. You know what? At the end of 60 minutes, they were tied. So you lose your money.

I get it. But you don't feel like if you lost on two overtime teams that were underdogs that you were like on the wrong side. And by the way, my little extra pick, the Gregstra, was the Bills who covered eight and a half. I love the Gregstra. Very easily. So, so, feeling good.

And this week I'm feeling good too. My only problem was I have too many games I like. I love week 18. I don't know how you feel about it, but when I was actually betting real money before I could come here. Before you worked here. I thought the best weeks of opportunity of the season

were weeks one, two, and 18. Because there's just the most that I think, there's the most uncertainty that you can feel better about. I would just say, you just have to be disciplined because the problem that we have is that we're forced to pick all of the games.

Yes, not on this show though. Not on this show, but on Game Day View and other places. So I get frustrated and people like, you should have known better than on Tuesday when your scores came out that blah, blah, blah. I'm like, didn't you see the update

after you told, like, for example, you know, Jim Harbaugh could rest of starters after the results of some Saturday games. So again, you have to be malleable and flexible. like just don't pick that one as one of your confidence ones. Yes.

So I agree with you. This is a week where things could change. That Chargers example is perfect. That if the Bengals win on Saturday, that will give the Chargers more motivation to go for the seed because they're trying to pass Steelers. And you've got to stay on top of all this. I feel like we have a pretty good idea.

There's some crazy lines out there. Like the Titans are favored over the Texans. The Eagles and the Giants are very close. The Bills and the Patriots. And this is all because of resting starters. I'm curious where you want to go with your first pick. Because like I said, I had a hard time narrowing it down. I like about six

games a lot. Agreed. And my only struggle is where I'm narrowing it down. But where you go? I think that my first one right now, what are you seeing for Cincinnati? Cincinnati. That's a bold one because this is a normal game. But that makes sense. A normal game because there are minus two at Pittsburgh.

All right. I think that Cincinnati wins that one. Wow. And they cover the spread on that one. And the reason I'm starting with one that's not a crazy, you know, not a crazy line one, like the Cleveland and Baltimore line, 17 and a half points is I know that Cincinnati, they need to win in order to stay playoff relevant.

I know that Joe Burrow has been, at least recently, like the joint Jamar Chase T. Higgins situation has been so fruitful for them that I just think that that's a, like if you were going to give me like a first, half line, then I would go for like, you know, I would love like Baltimore to be winning by at least nine and a half points. But we're not doing that. No. We're one. Cincinnati wins by two. I kind of forgot about that Baltimore game. The number was so big that I didn't even look at it. And yet, and yet, uh, that's not a crazy pick. I'm on the opposite side, although I'm getting less confident about Pittsburgh. Not for this show. That's my least confident pick of the week. That's just a clean flip. I just, um, I just don't have facing that Bengals. But I've been on the wrong side of the Bengals and you've been on the right side in recent weeks. So don't listen to me. I am going to the next biggest point spread of the week

after the Ravens, and that's Bucks. That was actually, I wrote down seven games I liked, and it was the only game that I was ultimately like, I will sleep easy. Lock it up, lucky. Yeah, yeah. Now the Bucks, they made the number huge to try to get anyone to go on the Saints side.

It's 13 and a half. And so that's aggressive. That's crazy, though, because if it was 14 and a half, I would feel very differently. 13 and a half is two scores. It is. Two touchdowns, obviously. Obviously, throughout this week,

I'm looking at teams that are playing for something and teams that aren't or are wrestling players. This is an extreme example, but there's some numbers to it too. Spencer Rattler, if he was eligible, has been pressured on more of his dropbacks than any quarterback in the entire NFL this season. That's partly because he holds the ball.

Do you know what team has the highest pressure rate since week 11 in the entire NFL? Well, I mean, I'm guessing that since you asked this question specifically about the Bucks, that it's the Bucs. It's the Bucs. It's the Bucs. So that's right now the team that's the best at pressuring against the quarterback who faces the most pressure, who's a rookie, that's an absolute mismatch. Then you look on the other side of the ball. The Bucs offensive line protects Baker so well. The Saints so low in pressure rate. They are one of the worst teams of all time in terms of giving up a yak yardage, something that the Bucks special. even in a world where the Saints were playing better. I just think the strengths and the weaknesses are so dramatically opposed here in terms of the line play and the tackling for the Saints that I love it. I think I think they could cover this thing by the end of the first half. So whatever the first half line is, I would like that as well. They want to go to the playoffs.

That is my first pick. Give me your second pick. Well, let me tell you something about this pick first because that was one that I was considering. You could jump on board too. If we agree hard, you know what? I do agree hard because. In a week, you know my model's pretty conservative. And in a week where there is a 17.5 point spread, the fact that Tampa Bay has a higher win percentage for me than Baltimore in the situation we're there.

And it's a relative to the spread, like, they're ranked higher in that. So, I mean, I don't know. I think I need to jump on board with you in that one. We've been good, not perfect. I know we missed one. I think we need to get back on. I think we're about two and one or three in one when we've been on the same side this year. And I think that's fine.

The idea here is we're trying to get these right for our listeners. We're on the same team. We're on the same team here. We're on the team of the listeners. And it'll save. It'll make the show shorter. So that's good for everyone if you just want to get out and about for your day. Okay.

My second pick. And like I said, I like a lot of them. And so it was tough to choose between them. But the longer I looked at my Seahawks minus six and a half against the resting Rams, the more I thought this is as if the Seahawks are playing for a playoff spot and the Rams are resting starters. Because the Seahawks really want to win this game. They're going to play everyone. They want to get to 10 wins. Mike McDonald talked about how there's a lot of players on the team that have incentives that he wants to, within the framework of winning the game, wants to

help them out. I think they're going to be up for it. More importantly, they're playing a team that's starting Jimmy Garapolo. Now, as backup quarterbacks go, that's not bad. But when you're sitting Puka Nakua and Cooper Cup and you're replacing them with Xavier Smith and Jordan Whittington and you're sitting offensive linemen. And I look at this Rams roster as someone who's been to a lot of their preseason game.

They're a Stars and Scrubs type of roster. So if you sit down Jared Verse and a couple of their best players, it's a big drop-off to the undrafted free agents that are coming in. Of course, they're not really trying to win. The crowd's not going to care. Six and a half is a lot, obviously. But I kind of was looking forward to this game

if the Rams had something to play for. And I might just pick the Seahawks to win straight up if the starters were playing because of the way the Rams' offense has really taken on water lately. So do I think their backups are suddenly going to play well? No, I'm going Seahawks minus six and a half. I like that pick a lot. I'm going to pick another one just so we're not.

But I am on the same side as that just to work there. However, my one fantasy note here, for like daily would be a Blake Corum situation. I think he could have a fun week. I'm not suggesting he's going to be like, you know, a guy in, if you're playing, if you're in your championships, I'm not late. But if you're playing in DFS and you want to have some fun, we can't do it. Do it for us.

Yeah, Seattle's, the reason why I like them is I do think they've actually built up something on defense. They haven't been perfect, but overall, the defense has really made strides. But their run defense has been a little up and down this year. And I love the way quorum runs. Now you're making me a little nervous. I'm not worried about the point. I just think it's a fun.

I'm a little worried just because I like all these other ones so much that it's, it's hard to kill one of my babies here. I wish I had more than three picks this week. We're going lots of Greg Stras. All right. Give me your third and final pick. My third and final pick for the regular 2024 season is the Green Bay Packers. Okay.

Over the Chicago Bears. I have, I have 12 points. I have 10 here. So I'll give you two free points here on draft kings. right now. Perfect. Well, my point is my model has... Oh, your model has... My model has... I see. Exactly. My model has 12 points, which is, that's considerably...

That's a big one for me. Again, conservative model over here. So, that's a good one. In a large part, because I just think between... I think they need to figure out how to, especially after last game, they got to write the ship. And this is the situation

where with Matt Lafleur, they're heading into the playoffs. The Bears... Let's get a little spark going against a bear's team that doesn't have a lot to play for. But, you know, pride, of course. But I think, I think this is going to be a good one for them. Yeah. Shout out to the schedule makers. That's early, right? The Green Bay game? Yes. That is in the early window. So they're at the same time as Washington. And they've both said that they're going to play their starters for seating purposes and just wanting to look good. Now, you never know on the Packer's side,

if they scoreboard watched and the commander's game got out of control. But that game's only a four and a half point spread. You never know. So it's like a small bit of concern. And I do think ultimately that Washington game does get out of control because that's going to be my third pick. Oh, I like that. I'm going to Washington minus four and a half.

I hate not going with any underdogs this week. My next three favorite picks are underdogs, but here I'm going all favorites. I'm going to Washington minus four and a half. when the two it's the two division teams thing when they're uneven teams they play they play one Dallas already won this matchup they did but when you looked at that matchup they gave up 412 yards the commanders ran all over them the cowboys have a historically bad run defense they want to win this game the cowboys are not even the same team as they were four or five weeks ago they don't have cd lamb in this game they don't have zikio elli how could they come back from that. No, I'm just kidding. I just was looking to see who of their past catchers. There's one that ranks in the top 40 for me. So it's not a great outlook. Brandon Cooks. Oh, I was going to say, like, not Jalen Tolbert. But yeah. Big Ferguson. Yeah, it's not great.

Oh, obviously, he's at the tight end position. He's in like the top 20, but like that's not great. Yeah, this is purely, again, because I like so many of the other picks, this is purely a team that's playing for something and is peaking versus a team that's ready to go home. and so a matchup that I don't think they'll take lightly because they already they already lost it and uh four and a half not quite enough for me now that's that was hard for me though because why i don't know like i said because i'm having having to kill some babies that most weeks would be like one of my favorite picks what um if you had to pick one more yeah well i'll give you the gregg okay give me my greggs dress here we go chiefs plus ten and a half love that agreed it's it's it's tricky picking the backups, but could the Chiefs win straight up with their backups? I think

it's possible. So if you think it's possible they could win with their backups to get 10 and a half points is pretty juicy. I'm not a huge Carson Wentz fan specifically. And against that defense, that's what knocks it out of my top three. But I really like it. I like the Panthers plus eight. I do too. Oh gosh. Are we in the same side of everything right this week? That's good. That's an extra one. So let's write that down as an extra. You just can't be trusting the Atlanta Falcons in the year of 2025 to be favored by eight points in any scenario. That's a ridiculous. Like, if six and a half, I think they'd get more action on it.

I think that's a crazy number. The Panthers have the better quarterback. I like Michael Pennix, but I've seen enough out of Bryce Young that he's playing at a very high level. I know they got wax last week and the defense is rough. That's not like that's why it's eight points. Yeah. And then I also like the Giants plus three.

I think I'm not going to say they have a little something in Drew Loc, but I actually think that performance was kind of coming. he was a little better. They have something to play for. I think they like their coach. They're playing starters. The Eagles are resting their starters. It's not just like you're without Jalen Hertz.

You're without a lot of key players at all these positions. Do you agree with a sitting Seguan? Yes. Same. People say that. I'm like, they're like, he should get to choose if he wants to do it. I'm like, okay, but if he chooses to be selfish and not be the team player, then are we like, and what happens if he get hurt?

Like, I don't know. It's too much. You can't play him. He also leads the NFL in rushes. This guy needs a break. 3.45 is a huge, huge number. All right, so that is it for my picks to recap. We are both on the Bucks minus 13 and a half.

Yep. Cynthia has the Bengals minus 2 and the Packers minus 10. Like I said, I'm on the Bucks. And then I'm also going to be on Washington and Seattle. Seattle is minus 6.5 as my main picks. My little extras just for fun. Denver, Giants, and the Panthers are my Gregsters. I would have thrown in the Titans winning as a Gregstra,

but everyone is on my side, and that's actually now they're the favorite over the Texas. I don't even want to bother. I think I have the Texans. Forget that whole situation. I think we have the Texans win. That's where we're winning. I mean, when we're talking about whether the Texans' backups can beat Mason Rudolph,

you know, it's at the end of the season, and you know football is back. We'll see you Sunday night. Hey everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday.

Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the I iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Liff-Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet, we've got the insight to help you

crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL Fantasy. football podcast on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL, visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. This is an IHeart podcast.