NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 2 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: September 12, 2025

Football's most reliable picks show is back!! Gregg Rosenthal welcomes NFL Network's own Cynthia Frelund to NFL Daily for the best (scientifically supported!) point spread picks for Week 2 of the 2025 NFL regular season. The duo picks 3 games each for this upcoming slate of NFL action! The NFL Daily Podcast is a production of the NFL in partnership with iHeart Media. NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're not feeling great about that lines to the Super Bowl prediction. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesleyan podcast. podcast studio with my friend, Cynthia Freeland, for our weekly pick segment, which used to be called Man versus Machine, but we thought that was unfair to Cynthia, who is a living, breathing woman with emotions.

She's not a machine. Emotions? Where are those? Your computer model doesn't have emotions, and that's, you know, what really is nailing these picks for you week after week. It was me who picked the Lions to the Super Bowl, and I'm feeling a little uneasy. I even rode with them last week against the Packers. That's one of the reasons why I have a losing record so far on the season. I went one and two.

And yes, if you're watching on YouTube, we love you. The YouTube audience, big for this show. I'm one and two. Cynthia, you went two and one. I had the lions. As I mentioned, I also lost on the Giants, terrible pick there. My Jaguars came through for me. You were on both sides of crazy comebacks.

You got the bills to help you out. but the bears let you down in the fourth quarter, and then you also had the buck. So you start off two and one. And then I do scribble all those teams at the end. Last week, the scribbles went three and two. We're going to keep track unofficially or officially. Scribbles are like where it's at.

Last year, the scribbles were good. Those were the extra picks. Today I only have two extra picks. I want to start with you, though. You get to go first because, as everyone knows, your model nailed the Super Bowl prediction before a year ago. You won this competition a year ago, and you went two and one last week.

So you go first games. And my Super Bowl picks won their first games. So that's good. What was it this year? Gills over Eagles. Okay. Yeah. So, I mean, I'm not the defense got something to work out. I'm not saying I feel great about it, but they're both one and out. Then that's all I care about. You know, one week at a time, Greg. Okay. Let's start. I'm going to see how spicy I want to be. Look, I'm going to keep this one pretty boring and neutral. I think Cincinnati as three and a half is, not, I don't like the half. I don't care. I have them winning by six. You know, I'm a pretty conservative modeler. So I think Cincinnati wins by more than three and a half points at home

against the Jacks. When you say you're a conservative model or maybe explain to the listeners what that means. So you can put a lot of volatility into, when you model in code like this, you can put a lot of volatility into it. Like you can weight different things and with, give it lots of different weights. So it could, you know, like, oh, you know, what's a good example? When you watch some other networks have like the win probability and when you see a win probability go from 99 to the other team winning more than once in like a lot

a lot of games than they're modeling not conservatively enough they're a little loose. They're playing fast and loose with the model because it really should, if something really is 99%. Your numbers are tight. That's why when we pick all the games and all the scores on game debut which is on Apple Network every Friday, it's very rare for you to have more than a 10 points. The game, you always have it, you know, pretty close. And that makes sense because if you run all the outcomes, that makes sense.

This is going to be the first time this year, and I do not like doing this. Ooh, we're on the other side. But I only had two picks that I was definitely taking. My model is extremely volatile. It's vibes-based. No, it's eyeball test-based. It's how I believe in the teams and the players and what I've seen based. And that all leads me with no statistical.

statistical modeling to picking the Jags plus three and a half. Now, your model takes a motion out of the equation. Maybe I'm just too happy that the Jags gave me an easy Sunday a week ago and I took them over the Panthers. You're like, take a more interesting game. No, we want winners. I think. Well, one of us is going to be a winner on this one.

I guarantee one of us wins. That is true. It's unfortunate when we're guaranteeing a one and one between the two of us because I want to spolt to do well. I thought they were cohesive in terms of their running game. When I watched their offensive line, I thought, Wow, that is a really well-coached offensive group who struggled last year running the ball and their offensive lines struggled.

And week one, you could see it. And then on the other side of the ball, I see really good pass rushers. Josh Heinz Allen, Trayvon Walker, you got Arick Armstead in the middle. And I see a Bengals offensive line that didn't play great last week. The Bengals offense in general wasn't great. I'm going to pick this game straight up for the Jaguars on game debut, where you don't have to do that here. But that extra half a point, don't you have a – like a slang word for that?

The hook. The hook. Yeah. Yeah, it hooked me. Like that extra half a point, it's like, okay, I'm making this one of my picks. Because I think they can win straight up. I think these two teams are relatively even. I'm taking the Jaguars plus three and a half.

Wow. Okay. Well, I mean, look, here are, I'll just give you my quick points on why my mall's on the other side of that. Mm-hmm. Number one, Jemar Chase, and games when he's following, not having an output, a sub-30-yard output, it's like 113 yards as his average. The following game. Yeah, the following. And not to say, and that's not the reason for it.

It's because of what that actually means. It means they rethink the game plan. They go back to the drawing board. Plans B-C-D didn't work. I still saw something that was great with that Noah Fant touchdown from Joe Bro. it was a blitz. It was on a blitz. And Joe Burrow was still incredible

against the blitz. So this is something where they started slow. They always start slow. We get it. But ultimately... They were trying not to this year. It's all they ever talked about and the preseason and all this stuff.

And then they come out and they had under 150 yards against the Browns. Milky puppies. We get it. Yeah. That's part of... That is part of my reasoning. And I don't know how much your model

is obviously baking in their historical greatness on offense overall compared to just what you saw week one or maybe their historic struggles early in the year. I am leaning a little bit on what I saw by the Jaguars defense and it might end up being misleading because they were playing the Panthers. But what I saw out of them was a creative group with Anthony Campanile is the new defensive coordinator and I just like what I saw.

Jordan Lewis and Tyson Campbell. I think their secondary is not great, but it might not be a big negative. it used to be in the path. One way to look real stupid with your secondary. Play Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, and company. I'm not suggesting that they're not good, but I think we saw maybe overindex of

looking very good last week, and now they're probably going to I mean, they're going to come back to the path. That's right. All I need is this Jaguar's running game, which I think is going to be good against a pretty lackluster Bengals defense in my mind. All I

I'm going to need is that. Just to keep up in a little bit of a score fest. So it could be 27 to 24. You know what? Even if the back does win, that hook. I win. So we'll see. I hope it comes down to three because that's just funny.

I mean, if I'm going to lose, I only want to lose by three. Like, if it's on the hook. All right. So that's why we've already knocked out one pick each. Ah, crazy. You go for your second pick. Okay. So I'm just trying to decide how spicy to be here because I know we had our production meeting for our game date.

Sure. It gives away our picks a little bit. But these are these should be. your favorites. You don't need to go spicy. Do the ones you're the most confident, no matter who they are. I mean, if I'm going most confident, no, because that's, then I'm going to picking things. No, no, no. We're going to, we're going to pick some that I like the most. How about that? Sure. I think New England wins. Interesting. It beats Miami. So if you're going to want to give me a point and a half, I will take that point and a half

because Miami favorite at home by a one and a half points. New England, listen, I picked them last week that they burned me, but some weird things happen. One, Drake may took a conservative I think he threw the ball like 355 times. There was a lot of passes. He had the most passing attempts that we've seen him have. We didn't see him use as like seven, seven rushing yards. Seven rushing yards. So maybe the theme is seven because the Bengals had seven yards of offense in the second half,

and I'm making them. And Drake May had seven rushing yards in this last matchup. But this is something where yards off of scrambles are something where Drake May, you know, between, I think it was like week 8 and 18, or week he actually led the league in scrambling yards, whenever he's, once he became the starter last year. So I think we use

number one that. Number two, the swing pass to Trayvion Henderson. What does Josh McDaniels love to do? Swing pass, swing pass. That's all we ever see. Why didn't we see those last week? I don't know. Trayvon Henderson can catch the ball. I think they figure out a way to make the run game, even if it's a run by proxy of short passes.

Fine. Still, short yardage game, I think it's going to be much approved. Look, I'm on your side with this one, and it wasn't going to be one of my picks just because these teams. You're on my side? You have New England winning? I mean, I have New England winning. What? I mean, it's great news. I mean, is great news. Is it really? I went on in two last week with you. Although if you count the extras, it was, you know, is it? You did great. I think it's, stop it. So their running game really struggled last week. I think that was part of the reason why Drake may just looked a little jumpy, uneven. I don't know if it was. Drake may watch that

Daniel Jones, Daniel Jones footage like, two rushing touchdowns for Daniel Jones, I can at least score one. I think he could and that Dolphins defense has a lot of talent in it. There's a lot going on with this Dolphins team. My issue only with this game

was just these two teams. I don't know what to make of them early and so I'm just going to stay anyway. I believe, though, in a different team in that division. Who? The Jets. The Jets. You think they win? I mean, they just Keep it closer than what is they are they are underdog here six and a half points six and a half points

I believe Justin Fields looks so good last week he was calm he was accurate he was composed and their running game was destroying the Pittsburgh freaking Steelers like bruce hall 18 yards preys hall 14 yards I love them up front what did the bills do last week I know they were playing the Baltimore Raven but they gave up 238 yards on the ground. That many? I think they've been searching on defense throughout training camp and the preseason for players in the back end, especially that can hold up in terms of the safety position and tougher players in terms of stopping the run. If I could pick almost any other team in the AFC,

they wouldn't want to see this week. It's the running and maybe even a little gunning New York Jets. Now, yes, I am taking them to win this game, which is a desperate pick in week two. I'm already, like, trying to chase you on the picks. I don't know why. I know they're almost a touchdown underdog. That you could do, you know, with the odds and whatnot,

take them to win over on, you know, straight up. But I feel really good. This show is only about the number. Six and a half points for this Jets team. I'm not overly confident in the Jets defense at all. I think it's going to be a high-scoring game where both running games get a lot done. I think the Jets keep it.

close. James Cook is streaking, right? He's had five games in a row with a rushing touchout. No, I'm just curious if you think he gets a nanzo. Yeah. Yeah, I think he keeps that streak alive. Their offensive line is awesome. And you talked about that last week a lot with the virus torrents and the continuity.

Yeah. It's underrated because people are like, you know, Josh Allen's making it happen with this rag tag group around him in terms of the receiver. First of all, again, Coleman's a first round pick, like early second. Like, he's getting better. Cleo Secure is good. I mean, nine of them each. They had nine targets.

All three of their main wide receivers had nine targets. But, yeah, I would point out, like, that offensive line is a weapon. And if so, it's kind of like Mahomes three years ago in that first year without Tyree Kill. You give a quarterback at the peak of his powers a great offensive line. You don't necessarily need incredible weapons. And that's why Jets to win the game doesn't feel like amazing. But I think the Steelers were very lucky to win that game last week. I think the Jets have something a little special and they're going to be fighting hard to avoid that O&2 start to the season.

And so I believe in my New York Jets. I've adopted them. You've adopted them? Yeah. Okay. I had them go into the playoffs as my seventh seed. This is something the model wouldn't do, which is get too attached to your pre-season. Yeah, you can't.

That's the thing. Like sometimes, I mean, listen, attachment is a big deal. Yeah. And it's fun. It's why we become fans. But you have to be able to separate your picks from your attachment. Otherwise, you know, we're going to have to take all your little chips and pull them off. Okay.

Okay. But if you, like, just look at the numbers. from a week ago. I'm not saying the Jets aren't great, but I'm saying you can't overly, you know, you have to like let next play. Every player will tell you whether it's good or bad.

You can't use, you know, you just got to be, there's got to be, you know, disciplined, the discipline of, of chill. The Jets, what they put on the field last week as a product, to me, that looked like a seven seed type of team. For what it's worth, and this is just the numbers, DVOA, you know, I think you respect DVOA,

but maybe it's... I respect DVOA, You know, it's a rivalry a little bit there in the numbers game. You're trying to argue. They got the Jets as the 10th best team after last week, and the bills were down to the 20s. Big sample side. I'm going to tell you something.

Yeah, one game. I know. I like your conviction. I'm not saying not to be a fan. I'm just saying to separate this is fan time from this is math time. Yeah, that's it. I have to say that to myself, too. I have to code this stuff without any names on it because teams that pay me money

like the freaking Broncos and the preziesies. I tend to like them better, right? Now we're getting the real stuff. I love this. But I have to do it with things I feel very agnostic towards. That's how I code it. So I don't know if this year, because I'm a psychopath, it's different types of dogs.

And I do have thoughts on that, but I'm not, you know, the Yorkie beating, whatever, you know, the German Shepherd. I'm going to take the German Shepherd. And I do think, and you'll see this with my next pick, too. Well, you want mine pick yet? I do, yeah. I do think there is something about the,

you know, the team's trying to avoid being no and one. The bills are coming off like a historic, amazing win at home. Is there any little, not trap, but just is that a little more emotional, you know, like it's a little bit of a letdown. All right. Give me your last pick. All right. Well, we talked about how I get emotional about teams.

There's these two teams that have actually emotions on both sides that I like. I love the Broncos. But Lou Anirumo is one of my very favorite humans, like, ever. So they're playing each other. Like how high on the list? I mean, that's a lot, humanity. I mean, I don't really like a lot of people, so. Top 30?

Oh, for you. Oh, wow. Yeah. So he's above me. No. He's a head. He's not above you. He's not above you.

I would like to see that ranking because, you know, 30s, that's pretty lofty praise. All right, but does that mean you're picking him? No, picking the Broncos. It's two and a half points. The reason, just like you talked about, it's the two and a half. To me, Bo Nix four turnovers. Now, you're talking about Sean Payton. What does Sean Payton, what do you think happen to Bo Nix after?

turning the ball over that many times last game. I'm going to guess it wasn't pretty. It just started running the ball essentially? You mean in the game? No, like when they were watching it back on the game. My point is, is there's a reason why some of these Hall of Fame coaches keep their jobs for so long. It's because they don't, like these are the types of things.

Like, this crap doesn't happen again. Like, it doesn't. Now, mostly the reason I'm picking them is because the Denver Bronco defense is the best unit. in this game and it's not close. And the second reason, Charverius Ward is very unlikely to play, which helps Bonix's ability to not turn the ball. And that's entered into the model.

No Ward at this point. Injuries, right now, it's Ward 50% because I don't know if he's going to play or not. I can switch it closer to the time, but even with Ward 100%, it's still three points in favor of the Broncos. I would put Ward at close to 0% at this point because

if you miss practice early in the... I'm just saying... You're in the protocol, so that's even more in your... favorite. Yeah, I'm with you on this one. I struggled with it. The heart of it all likes the cult story. Of course, I like the cold story too. I think the defense is going to be difficult for teams to go against this year, much improved. But ultimately, I agreed with every single point that you made. So I just won't repeat it. But that defense, yeah, we'll see how real the Danny Dimes Renaissance is.

Okay, so I wrote down, sometimes I got a lot of games I really like. Sometimes I just have four. That was this week. So I gave you my top two. Four is the minimum. yeah well no I don't know three could no some weeks it's like two and you're really forcing it this time I have really four I really liked and then there was a pretty big gap there's like one more I'll throw in there but so you maybe you can help me because I'm curious which side of either the falcons plus three and a half or the Seahawks plus three you're on and you might be opposite me on both of these but I like them both for different reasons I'm leaning towards the Falcons one. I actually have both of those.

You agree with me. So the one I would technically agree with you, like looking at my model right now, the one I technically agree with you more on is, what is it, Minnesota is at three and a half. I have Minnesota winning by three, so I, that's a hook there. But then I have a two point win in favor of Pittsburgh only, so I technically agree with you a little bit more on Seattle. Very close, though. extremely, I mean, we're... This is tricky, because I'm going to go with my gut

and go with that extra half point. The hook is getting me again and go with the Falcons plus three and a half as my official third pick. I like both these games, though, for different reasons. I'll run through them both because that would have been one of my written down...

Yeah, added to the extra game, which means it's going to hit. Okay, I think their quarterback is better right now. Atlanta, you know, Michael Pennix versus J.J. McCarthy. I just think he's more mature. he showed more. We'll see where McCarthy is. I think the Atlanta secondary showed me a little something in week one that I'm excited about. A couple rookies, Billy Bowman and Xavier Watts. Xavier Watts really played well in that game. And I thought AJ Terrell was kind of looking peak AJ Terrell. He's a guy

who had an all-pro season, but he's had injuries. He struggled a little bit. Last week, I thought he looked awesome against the bucks. He did. That was a game where if you play that game over the way it played out, like the numbers would tell you that the Falcons really outplayed the buck but they ended up losing that game and then this is the dumb part of me why I'm leaning towards it I do sometimes look at the two teams

and just think well they look like one and one teams to me you know neither one of these teams deserve to be oh and two neither one of these teams deserve to be two and oh and we see this a lot in the NFL that a lot of times teams respond well to losses and so three and a half points is what does it

for me I don't really feel strong about the Falcons winning in particular, but I like that three and a half points based on everything I saw. Rahim Morris, year two with his defense, they cover. Yeah, I'm with you on that. My asterix on this one, just like the little note that could adjust it, but would adjust more in favor of Atlanta, is if we see the health of, like, it was a darnel movie. He sounds like he's playing.

He's practiced. We don't know for sure, but that's a good one. Again, that's just an asterisk, but it just reinforces your point. And no Blake Cashman for the Vikings. That is confirmed. He's on injured reserve. And I think that could be a problematic spot for them. It's like Ivan Pace and you could attack the middle of the field.

There, Kyle Pitts looked pretty good. Seattle, to me, is more of a, I just think they match up well. I think all those zone runs that Jets had against the Steelers last week, the Seahawks can do that. I think the pass rush against Aaron Rogers, who did a lot of really good things last week. But he didn't handle the pass rush well at all. He took four sacks and kind of was panicked when he was under pressure. I think they could get prepping. my faith, baby. Right. So three points. I really like that game, too. Like I said, I liked four a lot this week. But I will go with Atlanta officially as my, as my third in the Seattle plus three as my little extra. And just because I'm feeling generous to the listeners, Browns 11 and a half. I'll take, I'll take the Browns to cover that 11 and a half. I'm feeling a little spicy. I thought they play. Joe Flacco. I mean, you're going to try to bring the Browns in, the organization you ripped away from.

like one of the best football towns in the world, and you do your 30th anniversary of the franchise celebration with everyone coming in on the day the Browns come into town? I mean, that's certainly intentional. And I see you, and I think that's bad football god, juju. I mean, it's definitely something. The model can account for that. No, the model doesn't know what that means.

But ultimately, I mean, I didn't realize they were doing that. Yeah, it's... Who's in charge over there? I mean, it's a rivalry. But that's honestly part of the reason why I liked the Browns in this game. I thought their rookies looked great last week. And I just think they're going to be

a little better this season. It's a divisional matchup where there's a lot of filth familiarity. And so it's a lot. They were 11 and a half points. And the Ravens have had vulnerability to 12 personnel, two titan sets. So there are reasons to support your findings.

Little Harold, Vanon, Jr. action. And yeah, I... Also, his name is Harold. I love. that. I don't know why. I don't know anyone named Harold, but I like, I love the idea that his name is Harold. I love that he's a 44 playing tight end and fullback. There aren't many true, like they call people jokers. Like, he's a real Joker. He's moving in every position. I saw him blow open a hole on a touchdown run on the goal line. That was cool. That was why he was

one of my winners on the extra picks last week, plus five and a half. All right, that's enough. We got to get down for our show Game Day View. You can check out Cynthia on her YouTube. page numbers game each and every week if you want even more picks from Cynthia really getting deep into the numbers every single game and she's got a new show too with CBS analyst Logan Ryan so everyone Logan's great check out that Logan is really really good on the broadcast I listen and with you that is it we will hopefully do even better for all you guys this week it'll be the last time you hear from us in the feed until Sunday night when we are back.

They're letting Recap show. They're letting you leave the building? Here now? No. I will be staying until Sunday night. Got it. For all those games.

Me, Jordan, Roderig, Patrick, Claibon, and Nick Shook. See you Sunday night. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down

college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluate team building. philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sundays. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever

you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant, and I'm Michael Lev Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL fantasy football podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet, we've got the insight to help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now.

to learn more. This is an iHeart podcast.