NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 4 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: September 27, 2024

Gregg and Cynthia Frelund are back for another week of Man vs Model head-to-head pick battle. First, Gregg and Cynthia look back on their week 3 picks (00:34) . Then, our duo give us their week 4 picks. Gregg and Cynthia take us to the motor city for their first pick (00:45). Next, Cynthia gives us her second pick in a big divisional game taking place in Atlanta  (5:05). We then head to Arizona as Gregg gives us his second pick (7:40). We then go to Minnesota for Cynthia's final pick (10:30). Gregg for his final pick takes us to Jacksonville (13:12) and he goes over the results from last week's extra picks and he gives us his week 4 extras (17:00).NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a good one-sided. rivalry. I'm Greg Rosenthal in Studio 5 at NFL Network with one of my favorite people at the company in the world. It's Cynthia Freeland. Yes, we are back picking games against the spread. Man versus model, your computer model. We're both four and five on the season. Cynthia, I went two and one last week. You went one and two. We're forgetting about the past. It's been a tough season. It's been

unpredictable. We look forward. And I'm going to just, I'm going to kick us off here. See if we're on the same page. Yep. Let's go Seahawks plus 3.5 to start it off against your lions. I'm not doing this as a personal attack. I don't take it as that. I'm doing it as a bit of history. So I mentioned it off the top, like a one-sided rivalry.

You wouldn't think that this is such a one-side rivalry, but it is. What did you say on game debut? They haven't beaten them since 2012? That is outrageous. And I know that six times. That has nothing to do with this particular matchup. Dagger. In my heart. But Gino Smith.

and the Seahawks have won in a couple of scorefests against Dan Campbell's team. Again, it's different coaching staff, so I don't think that tells us that much, but the injury situation for the Lions is worrisome to me. I think the Seahawks have a good chance to win this game straight up. If you look at Gino Smith versus Man Coverage

is your outstanding. 73% completion percentage. Who plays almost more man coverage than anyone in the league? It's the Detroit Lions. Only one team plays more man coverage than the Lines. Just so you know. There is a second. 46%.

So, wait, you're with me on this. Yeah. You're with me like this is going to be one of your Your three picks? Like, this is one of my three picks. Yeah, we are aligned. Okay, so why do you like the Seahawks against your team, other than you're kind of emotionally hedging, I think? I'm definitely emotionally hedging, but it only works if your math also works for this whole man versus model thing.

And the model actually has that as one of the highest outputs as well, even though I have the Lions winning in the straight up version of the equation. Here's the reason. Number one, Frank Ragnall. Number two, Marcus Davenport. Number three, Derek Barnes. Number four, is Sam LaPorte a playing? Number five. Like, keep going with this interviewer for it because it is a mile long and that is a problem.

But the Frank Ragnall one specifically is massive because you haven't even seen Jared Goppy as well good with play action this season. And he's had the best run success rate in the league. So if you're really good at running but play action isn't working for you and you don't have your great center, it is a gnarly ride. I do think there's going to be more than 46 and a half points in this game. So just so, you know. You're just throwing that one out of there as a preview.

That one's like, you know, you put the in your little note card. I got the extra picks for my notes. We'll get to that later. Will you put mine on there? I will. This is going to be a score fest situation because I do think there's some tricks. Ben Johnson, this is like, maybe this is how he gets a job, right? Mike McDonald got his job.

That Lions game last year, Mike McDonald, that was one of the reasons he got the game. So now it's Ben Johnson's turn, even though I don't ever want him to leave. I love that you mentioned that. Look, Mike McDonald had a game plan that made. Jared Goff in this Detroit Lions offense looked worse than ever a year ago. And Frank Ragnow, their center, the on-off splits are crazy. I know this isn't basketball or hockey, but when Frank Ragnow did not play last year, their offense was just not the same. And he has a lot of responsibility. It's one of the reasons why I think Jared Gough has played so well in

Detroit, why Derek Carr, I think, is off to a good start in New Orleans. They took a little bit off his plate, and you have a great center in Frank Ragnow, usually, who makes so many of the protection calls and does such a good job, it's just not the same. And yeah, this Seattle defense, it's a prove-it game because they've played three bad offenses in a row, but ultimately, I love the way they're playing up front. I think their cornerbacks are

outstanding. Maybe there's some vulnerability in the middle of the field, and that's why it's going to be a close game, but three and a half points in a game, I think Detroit has a chance to win. I kind of love it. I love that we're on the same side, by the way, because last week we went against each other. Yep. I won. It was the Colts, but it was kind of a weird game to be honest.

By the way, Ken Walker, if he plays, you know, he went to Michigan State. There's like this emotional, that's going to be a problem for the lines, even though they've been good at stopping the run. But remember, I told you all those linebackers are out. But this could be like a Kenneth Walker, Ken Walker, whatever you want to call him. This could be like a, hey, you guys up there in East Lansing, drive the 70 miles southeast to Detroit. This could be a problem.

I'm glad you mentioned that because, look, the Ciacs are not a perfect team. They have not been run blocking well. They've not really been pass blocking well other than their left tackle. And so that could be problematic against line. Left tackle, right tackle, that's going to be a problem against Aidan Hutchinson. Yeah, Aidan Hutchinson.

They just move him to wherever the problem is. That's the smart way to do things. And the one thing, Ken Walker can do that. Stone for, that guy sounds like he should be awesome, but he's allowed the highest pressure rate on their own. He sounds like Carson Steele, like an adult entertainer. I think. They think they know each other?

He joins that group. So I love that we're aligned on it. Okay, we're aligned. Trust this. If Man versus Model is to be trusted this year, we need the Seahawks plus three and a half. Give me your second pick. Okay, so this is my second pick now. I just want to make sure that we're like staying aligned here.

The Saints plus one and a half points. I have the Saints winning, like winning, winning, straight up winning. So if you're going to give me them plus a point in a half, I'm really going to like this. Why, okay, I understand there's recency bias along with some of these lines where last week you saw the Eagles shut them down and, you know, they're away, et cetera, et cetera. But number one, the Saints have the best NFC road divisional rate, so 14 games to four. I understand some of that is Sean Payton, your Drewsby's, but don't worry about it. We can deal with those details later. But you know what, Dennis Allen, to be fair, Dennis Allen was on all those staffs.

Exactly. Checking down pretty good Falcons' offenses. Exactly. But the Falcons defense doesn't have the same horses that the Eagles defense has in order to not just stop the outside zone run, but also get those pressures up that really, up the gut, that really, bother Derek Carr, so they don't have the personnel to do that. Matt Judon's the only guy that's really getting any pressure, and that does not an entire zone running, outside zone running, and Derek Carr stopping team make, right? Like, they just don't have enough horses to be able to

stop them. Yeah, I think you look at their linebackers, Troy Anderson, and, I mean, Kaden Ellis is a good player, used to be on the Saints and stuff, but they're a team I think you can push around a little bit. I'm with you. It's really funny you pick them because they were on my list, and I was really debating whether they should be my third pick or not. Here's, I'm going to actually, I'm going to, they're going to be my extra pick. We're aligned. We're aligned. But I don't want to be too aligned.

But man versus model, it's more like man and model this week. So we love the Saints. Yes. Plus one and a half. Do you think this is a Ryan Nielsen revenge game? I mean, like, like, I know he's at the Jags now, right? But like, they're all, they both had him at certain points. So like, this Saints defense, that was two teams ago.

And this Falcons defense, so it's like he's not even there. There is a lot of intermixing. Terry Fontenow's in the front office. David on Yamada is there. Those two are like, Caden Ellis. Shuffled up. Yeah, I just love this rivalry, but I think if

you just were soberly looking at the first three weeks of play and the data, and going to look at it drunk. Right, going into the season, we thought these teams were roughly equal. At least I did, then yeah, it doesn't surprise me that the model spits out a road victory.

And if you look at like DVOA, which I really respect as kind of a you know, one size fits all metric. The Saints are second so far, and the Falcons are like 17th because the Saints have played three good opponents. I mean, maybe not three good opponents, obviously, with the Panthers, but three

really high-quality games where you blow two teams out, you lose a close game against the Eagles, I'm with you. All right, my second pick. This is the one I felt second, you know, most strong here. Second most strongly about. Commanders, Cardinals. Not the winner. No. I do like the Cardinals if I had to

pick one minus three and a half, but I don't feel crazy about that. But I like the over. I believe it's 50 and a half right now, or 50 where, depending on where you're looking. I believe that this is the worst defense in the NFL in Washington. They can't cover anyone. They try to play man coverage. Like, they're putting Sanra still out there on an island against Jamar Chase because they don't have any other options. This is a kid who's a rookie that maybe should be playing in the slot or maybe shouldn't be playing at all. They just don't have players. Dan Quinn is suddenly going for every fourth down because he knows he doesn't have a defense like pick like pick a defensive

stat that exists in the world just pick one touchdowns allowed in the past game the commanders are terrible at it how about like rushing efficiency how about yards allowed per drive points allowed per drive you pick any defensive stat that you want the commanders are the very worst in the league at it and i think this is going to be one of those kiler murray seasons where fantasy wise maybe even MVP race-wise, he destroys in some matchups where, yeah, he's going to have some weeks against good defense is where he struggles,

but he has those weeks where it's like the four, five touchdown weeks, the 80 rushing yards, 250 passing yards weeks, and I think that's it. Now we saw on the other side of the ball, Jaden Daniels, he's going to get his, Kyler Murray, I mean, Cliff Kingsbury is setting up

wide open receivers for him. He's hit and throws down the field. I don't think Arizona's that great either defensively. So I project like over 60. I mean, I know no model would do that, but I like like 33 to 31, so I think it goes way over 50. If I were picking on my gut, I would actually agree with you. But the model has something different primarily because of something that you hit on for both sides, the run game. The rushing efficiencies for both teams, not just the quarterback, but also the running backs,

the main running backs for each team, that slows pace down. And sometimes when you have those slow paces or when you take that fourth down, that's like a roll of the dice, right? And if you go for it on fourth down, you don't punt it, then it's, it all changes. These two teams are crazy, though. They are crazy. That'll make sense, and that's why, like, statistically, I get it. But you look at week one. I'm with you gut-wise, but I don't pick me.

Week one, Bill's Cardinals, like, the Cardinal, it was all these slow drives, but they still got to 34 to 28. You look at Commander's Beggles last week. Sometimes it was those slow drives, and it was 37, 33. You're right, you don't usually score every time. No, but that's why it is, it's the drive, like the time per drive, and typically you aren't getting six points per drive, Seven points per drive.

This game is what we need, though. This is the antidote to the low-scoring NFL commanders, Cardinals, over. That is my second pick. All right, wrap your picks up. Your third pick. I think we're going to be on the opposite side of this one. But I have Minnesota, and I'm getting, I have Minnesota winning outright. So if you're going to also give me two and a half points, then I'm going to really, really like this.

I watched that defense. We talked about this last week. C.J. Stroud, you can't blitz him. You know, why? He's great against the blitz. Turns out, they blitz him 50% of the time. they had the most pressures last week, 23 total pressures, 13 came when they were blitzing, 10 came when they weren't blitzing.

You know how many sacks they had five? You know how many came without blitzing? Three, and then two when they were blitzing. That's a good sign. It's a really good sign because, like, a lot of times in football, we can identify what another team's weakness is. But how to adapt without losing your identity is a really tricky thing to do. And Brian Flores and this Minnesota defense, they absolutely pulled that off against the Texans.

I think this is an interesting one at Lambeau Field. Understand there are some parameters that are. different. We have a little bit of a question mark at the quarterback position, so they're going to have to adjust. It's a big deal though, isn't it? Like Jordan Love, Malik Willis, that's a big difference to me. Like, I'm going to pick straight up. I don't feel confident in this game no matter who's the quarterback. I don't feel confident

in this game just generally. But I would take Jordan Love if they're starting and I wouldn't otherwise. I would like take Jaden Reed and fantasy of Jordan Love starting, but I wouldn't take them either way under either condition, which is why it's one of my favorite ones because I don't think that there's enough

horsepower there, especially when you factor in that the Packers defense is like a roller coaster. Like they have the most interceptions, they have seven interceptions, but they also allow the second most yards after the catch over expected. So you're either running on them or they're completely turning the ball over. So that's like, like if that isn't like a home run swing or like home run, strike out. I don't know what is. I struggled with this one. You know, the Packers defense have been playing bitter lately, but it's been against Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. I kind of just went with like, man, if going into the season, Packers are only two and a half point favorites against the Vikings.

I know the Vikings defense is shown to be a level that we could not have. But what about Sam Darnold? But coaching, to me, it's a rare case where Kevin O'Connell is not a coaching advantage. It's even because it's too great. You know what we didn't bring up? What? Aaron Jones revenge. Okay.

Aaron Jones revenge. Aaron Jones is awesome, but. Aaron Jones is going to get so much revenge twice in the end zone. It's all about Aaron Jones. Aaron Jones doesn't want revenge. He wrote a nice piece. Did you tell me to relax? That's so like Aaron Rogers of you.

I'm just saying like Aaron Jones is one of my favorite players in league. Top five in Success Rate, one of my favorite running backs. But the Packers, their running game is among the best in the league too. So everyone won with that one. I hope you win with that one because I'm not going to go against you here or even on my extra ones. That one to me was just a question mark. You helped make up my mind for my third pick because you picked Saints and I was struggling with it. I'm going to go Texans minus six and a half.

Now, I've seen it at six and a half or seven, but as we are going to tape, I see some six and a halves out there. So that's a big difference. You want to get the six and a half if you can. But either way, I'm going Texans. Okay, they're coming off a game against the Vikings. I'm putting your points up here. Yeah.

Yep. They're going up a game against the Vikings, which was humbling for them. I believe them to be a Super Bowl contender, a very solid week-to-week defense who's going to get after the poor sister's offenses. in the league, of which I can include the Jaguars as one. So like a bad offensive line, an offense with no confidence, and this is something I was

going to mention about Washington too, which is why I do like Arizona in that game. Going on the road again on a short week, like the numbers for that against the spread are not good. Like if you're on the road on Monday night and then you're on the road again in a short week, even if you did

well on the Monday night with Jacksonville, very much did not. Like, that's just a disadvantage that you don't want to have. Yes, the division game, so there's some familiarity there. But the Texans, to me, are just a class above. And I do like teams that I believe to be real deal contenders coming off losses. I do think there's an emotional and mental focus sort of aspect. And then I look at the matchups.

Yes, Jacksonville might get a cornerback or two back this week, Darnel Savage, and or Jerry & Jones. But like, that's still a mismatch against Nico Collins and Stefan Diggs. We'll see if Tankdale is out there. So I like the mismatch on that side of the ball. then on the other side of the ball, I really do trust this Texans defense in what D'Amico Ryan's is cooking up. So overall, it is a lot of points, but the Jaguars, to me, are a bottom five team in the NFL against, like, let's say a top eight team. That's not too many points

for me. They lead the league in pressure rate. Let's go. That's the Houston Texans, of course. When I'm looking at the opportunity that they have from kind of last year, and you talk about a very good team, what do they do after a win? Well, if you look at last year, I mean, C.J. race route is five and one in those situations. Let's go. So that's another fact there. Like, they are a good team. Things happen throughout the course of the season.

I think on game day view, you were like, you know, this team is better. I picked them for the Super Bowl, but I don't have them winning every game. So this is just, I wasn't going to give it away. You can't give it away. They got to watch the show. It's fine. It's two different mediums. It's okay.

Let's give our man versus model list. Okay, but the point is, is, you know, that even good teams don't win every single game. So I'm with you, though. It's how you rebound. It's what you make of it. If you are a fantasy player, just watch that little cue on, there's a cue on Nico Collins status. So just watch that.

It doesn't change anything. Let's go Dalton Schultz, though. I think that'll be a good opportunity if there's no Nico Collins. And of course, Defundix. Your review, we're both on the Seahawks plus three and a half. I also agree with you that the Saints plus one and a half is a good one, but that's not one of my picks. That is your second pick, and your final pick is Vikings plus two and a half.

and I am taking the Texans minus six and a half. I agree with you on the Seahawks and I'm also going over commanders and cards. And you mentioned the note card. Everyone's talking about it. Everyone is, you know what? People stop me on the street. They're like, can you give me a picture

of Greg's note card? The country is talking about it. They're like, why is Greg four and five with his main picks? But the note card picks... Why won't Greg tell you the note card since you? So we went back and I think checked out the note card record for the season.

I think is nine and three or eight and three. I got to go check week one. There's like a divine intervention that comes into your hands. I didn't feel as constant. I didn't feel as confident this week. That might be a reflection of the picks not going that well overall this year. But on the note card's even great. I only have two for you this week.

The Saints, I'm with you, plus one and a half. And then I also like the Titans plus one and a half in Miami. We don't know who the starting quarterback is in Miami. Snoop Huntley would make me slightly more afraid. But when I watch the Dolphins at a week-to-week base, I think they're the worst team in the NFL. I think they had major problems with Tuatung of Iloa. Again, DVOA, they're 32, so that matches my eye test.

Like the Titans, they have a decent defense. They're 25, 26. I think that's enough of a gap, and some of that data is with Tuatunga Vailoa as their quarterback, and they're still 32nd. I think it's enough that their offensive line. I just don't trust them to win any game right now. I think the Titans get their first win of the season. And I know your model agreed with me on that one.

Yeah, model agrees with you on that. The one thing that I do want to point out about the Titans that maybe people are forgetting, I don't know if they're forgetting or not, Calvin Ridley's ability to score touchdowns, turns out, hasn't gone anywhere. So I'm looking at this game, and if you're looking at this game, and if you're looking for a touchdown score in this matchup, it's look to Ridley. I like that.

And you know what? Newt Hopkins returned last week, and he looked fantastic. I love, he's one of my all-time favorite players. So it was like a vintage, like snatched blue. Like it's just vintage. I loved it. Physical, making plays, despite not being that open.

Body control, ridiculous. He's like my, he's one of my all-time favorites. All right, that's what Cynthia does. Check out her YouTube every week, numbers game. Man versus Model. Obviously, we will be back next week to tell you about how, being on the same side of these picks really paid off. But yeah, you should check out if you want more

Cynthia numbers game. It's outstanding. We will be back on NFL Daily on Sunday night. It's our flagship big show of the week with Patrick Claibon and Nick Shook recapping all the games. Until then, football is back.

It's been back. It'll never not be back. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies,

coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast

on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet.

We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL, visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. This is an IHeart podcast.