NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 6 Picks with Neil Reynolds

Episode Date: October 11, 2024

Gregg Rosenthal is joined by Neil Reynolds to give you their Week 6 picks against the spread. Gregg and Neil give you their picks for Lions at Cowboys (01:43), Bengals at Giants (07:47), Ravens at Commanders (12:23) and more! Note: time codes approximate. NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we always mind the gap. Greg Rosenthal, and I am here excited to be joined by Neil Reynolds of Sky Sports. Neil, every week, I pick games against the spread with my friend, Cynthia Freeland. She's back in Los Angeles, so you're filling in for her. She's like a statistical expert.

She has models that are spitting out who is going to win and who is going to lose. I assume you have done equal amount of preparation to take. tell me who your picks are going to be. I've written three picks down on a card. Okay, that count. That works. And I like stats. Yes, I struggled again last week.

It's really going, getting out of hand. I went one and two. I felt confident about my picks. So my record for the season is under 500. I'm not feeling good. But every week at the end of the show, I give a few little extra picks. And I am 13 and three on those extra picks. So my main picks have been bad.

My extra picks have been good. So just keep that in mind if you are listening. As our guest, Neil Reynolds, of course, of Sky Sports, will be the main presenter, the main host on the Sunday coverage of Jaguards, Bears, and every Sunday, if you're watching the NFL in the UK, you know Neil Reynolds. He's there with you. He's just like a, I was going to say a warm glass of milk, but that doesn't sound very exciting. More like a cold pint of beer with you alongside every week. Why don't you give me your first pick to get us going? So I see that I'm sort of learning about spreads.

I'm not very good at this sort of the whole thing. I think I've got it. So Detroit are favored by three against the Dallas team. I think Dallas look like at times they look like they're imploding. It looks like there's a crack in the CD lamb, Dack Prescott relationship. Dak blows hot and cold. They've got injuries on defense, yet they still find a way to win in Pittsburgh. So I feel that Dallas can certainly cover.

those three points against the Detroit Lions. So Cowboys at home? Now, I like that as sort of that's going to go against what the public is doing. And that's like always a smart way to bet essentially. And I know we're not allowed to as NFL employees, but we are just picking of like what games

we like. And that's one where everyone's going to look at that line and everyone's going to say, oh, the lions are coming off of a buy. The Cowboys are more banged up than they've ever been. It's actually written down on my list.

Okay. I'm going opposite you. I'm going Detroit minus three. Partly because of the injuries that the Cowboys had, partly because of the running game that you just, it's sort of hard to imagine this Dallas defense stopping them. And then you think about this game last year. And the Cowboys just are not the same team as they were a year ago,

whereas the Lions feel like they are. They've kept it pretty simple for Jared Gough. He's not had to do a lot of like work into tight windows. whereas Dak Prescott has to. And so that's why I'm going lions. Now, all of that said, they always say, like, there's a reason why the house always wins, why all those casinos look beautiful.

Whenever it looks too obvious, and it's like a home underdog, by only three, but they have actually a good quarterback. That's where you tend to see some surprising results. So you are maybe on the sharp side of this. Yeah, I mean, I'm hoping that that is, case I think you've always got that potential for a big CD lamb game now I'm going to talk myself out of it a tiny bit here because I don't know what the plan was with Dallas bringing

Zeke back that's a concern with the running game I like how Detroit have I like how they've handled being in the spotlight Dan Campbell said they're going to have a target on their back and they've handled that pretty well but I'm just I'm literally just going based off that can have hot games it's in Dallas he's got one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, and as bad as it was last week, they won on the road. Okay, so let's go to my second pick. So, yes, I'm on Detroit minus three. I'm going to go Giants plus three and a half.

We talked about this game on the preview show, and I felt smarter being on the giant side when Ollie Connolly was kind of like, yeah, the Giants look good in this game, and he's such a smart mind. I'm like, okay, I feel even better. It helped lock it in. I look to the lines, and I don't mean like the spread, although, again, a home underdog, three and a half points at home to a team that's one and four

and has one of the worst defenses in the league. At some point, you have to just say, like, this really is one of the worst defenses in the league. Now, I'm talking about, like, line play. I think the Giants' offensive line, I've been banging this drum, has been one of the most underrated groups in the league. They've protected Daniel Jones pretty well.

You saw last week the running game traveled to Seattle. I think it'll work. Absolutely at home in this game. And so that's a mismatch. We're taping this earlier in the week than I would like. I'd love to know if Malik Neighbors plays in this game. But I think you saw last week, Brian Daibble can cook up a scheme,

getting Darius Slayton over 100 yards. Theo Johnson had a nice game. Wando Robinson's getting the third down. So can they beat up on a bad defense? Well, they beat up on the Seahawks last week. They were pretty dominant last week. I don't know if they win this game. Three and a half points, though.

I think Brian Dable right now, that's a mismatch enough that when I look at the other side of the ball, I see the Giants defense. They've been playing pretty good up front, and that's a good matchup. That's a tough matchup against the Bengals' offense. I'm not saying they're going to slow them down that much in the secondary, but they could maybe get some heat on Joe Burrow that Burrow hasn't seen. And so I just like that as more of a closer to a toss-up of a matchup, and I'll take the three and a half points. Yeah, I mean, I think that last week was the best I've seen the Giants play in a long time. If that carries on, Daniel Jones is going to ruin some narratives

because that's been that he's a struggle and he's a problem. I still look at the Bengals, though. I would go the other way. I would go Cincinnati. Even with the three and a half points. Yeah, because I just see. So I watched that game against Baltimore last week, and I still see the best two teams in the NFC North,

AFC North. And the reason is because this is still a quarterback league. And Joe Burrow is special, and Jamar Chase is up to speed, T. Higgins is back. He looks good. And so I believe that the Bengals, even though they're one and four, are actually not just the team that can win this game. I think they can be a playoff team still. I think they're not dead because of Joe Burrow. I think that's all fair, and I think Chase Brown has been quietly a really nice addition to their offense.

Good on passing downs, has a lot of explosion. So they have a running game. I don't think they really miss Joe Mixing. and the offensive line for them has played well, too. I think these are actually two of the better offensive lines in the entire NFL, and I hear all that, and yet I still will take the three and a half points. I just think it's going to be close at the end.

And so maybe they win, but it's a Harrison, not Harrison Bucker, and Evan McPherson type of field goal game. I'll never forget doing Bengals Packers with you, actually, in the Sky Sports Studio. in a total field goal fest a couple of years ago. And it was actually the coming out party of Evan McPherson. Yeah, we were in the studio at Tottenham. Who is crazy?

Yeah, those are long days. All right, give me your second pick. So Green Bay are favored by five against the Arizona Cardinals. That's right. I think the Cardinals, I don't think they win the game at Lambeau Field, but I think they cover that spread. Love it. So, again, I always look for splashy playmakers that can upset the formbook.

Kyla Murray can do that. Marvin Harrison Jr. stepped up on a big fourth and five last week. I think Kyla can he can make enough plays to make this uncomfortable for the Packers and Green Bay are making it uncomfortable for themselves. Jordan Love needs to take better care of the football. I mean, that's been the thing for me since he's come back from the knee injury is like that that shouldn't affect your decision making but for some reason that has been the case. So I think there's enough mistakes in Jordan Love and enough good stuff from Kyla Murray to make this close.

I still think Green Bay get the win, but I think the Cardinals can go in there and we're still trying to figure the Cardinals out, but when you're trying to figure somebody out where the team out, if you've got a playmaking star, and now Kyla can have some bad plays as well, but he'll give you those highs, then I think you've always got a chance.

I think their running game has gotten going. The Cardinals the last couple of weeks. I think that's where Green Bay is really vulnerable defensively, they need more out of Roshan Gary, out of Kenny Clark. They're players that they're giving a lot of money to. It's a pretty average defense, below average defense. And so this Cardinals group going up against them, I'm with you. They were on my extra picks list.

You actually have a couple that are on it. So they're on my kind of extra picks that the plus five, that's too much. Kyler Murray is at the point now where you're right. Both of these teams, I'm not totally sure what I'm getting out of. but then I'll take the five points and that the Cardinals are one of those teams, and I do think they are an underrated coaching staff that's going to throw a lot at you,

and it's not going to work every week. Sometimes it's going to, like, you're not going to throw the dice while, you're going to get Yatsy or whatever it is, because they get very creative in what they do, and occasionally you'll get blasted like they did against Washington. But I think in other games, you can have a coaching advantage,

and I think they will when they have the ball in offense. I think they'll throw enough at the Georgia, Jordan Love offense to muck it up. That's the biggest thing I'm looking for with the Packers over the next couple of weeks is that progression to see the Jordan Love that we saw at the second half of last year. Tidy all of that up and be the star you were at the back end of last year. And I don't think we've seen that yet. It's an exciting game.

It should be a fun one. Should have a lot of points. I'm changing mind mid-show. So we did the preview show with Ollie Connolly and your friend Nat Coombs, your friend of me. and they kind of got me off of going Patriots plus seven. Okay. I just think that's too much, so I'm going to put that in my extra picks. But I do feel a little better about Pittsburgh minus three in Las Vegas this week.

This is just one where you're trusting the organization. You're looking at what's happening in Vegas injuries on the defensive line, losing Christian Wilkins. Obviously, Devante Adams is out for this game. You probably will never play for the Raiders ever again. You're changing quarterbacks. I think it's a downgrade. There's a reason they chose Minchu in the preseason. He looked better.

I was at training camp. I've never seen a quarterback struggle more in a single practice than I saw Aidan O'Connell's struggle. And he struggled last week. When he came into the game, he played worse than Minchew. And so you're going up against a Steelers defense that is banged up, but they're coming off of two losses. They really need a win. I just trust the Steelers.

more to grind out a victory. They have the better quarterback in this game. Justin Fields has played pretty consistently. I would agree with you. I think it was telling in the summer when it took so long for Antonio Pierce to decide who was going to be the quarterback. I think he settled on the right one,

but it was kind of the lesser of two. Now, I'm not calling them evil. I'm talking, it's just a phrase. I think lesser of two evils is fair. I know you're very like... Yeah, so the lesser of two evils. Nice about things. I just don't, I just don't see this franchise going anywhere, the Raiders, until they fix that position.

We know it's a league of haves and have-nots, and they have not. You're very polite, like, on the air, but I know those elbows can be pretty sharp. It's like, how do you get into that Roger Goodell dinner, you know? Like, you've got to be doing something, right, behind the scenes. I want a little more of that. Just got to invite yourself, Greg, eventually. No, I'm with you on that one. I think that's a strong thing.

Okay, give me your last pick. So I checked with you when I wrote this one down. I had it the right way, or not the right way round, but it was this big. Baltimore by six and a half against Washington. Maybe this means I'm buying all the Washington hype, but I think that's generous to the Ravens, and I think Washington can cover again.

I think Baltimore for me are, and they were, even when they were 0.2, Baltimore for me are one of the best teams in the league. So they were my pick to go to the Super Bowl. I would still say that's the case. But I'm believing in Jaden Daniels, and I'm believing in Washington in the way they help him out. Now, he contributes as well.

He had like over 80 yards on the ground last week, but they've been rushing for over 200 yards. You know, and it's Brian Robinson. Doesn't even matter who's there. It's Jeremy McNichols. And then there's passes to the Army Brown, Terry McLaurin. I mean, it looks like a complete offense. Austin Eccler looks like 20 years younger.

I mean, that's this. Austin Echler breaking tackles and then not breaking away, but like breaking. tackles and getting into open field. So, yeah, I think it's a dangerous offense. I think it's a very promising offense. I think Baltimore win the game, but I think Washington are going to make this a close one.

And I like the fact that this is a, you know, this is Lamar Jackson against potentially the next Lamar Jackson. I know. On one hand, it's like a basic comparison. On the other hand, it's true. No, no, no. I mean, like, I know. I think people have been afraid to make it because it's like, okay, here's another running quarterback.

Here's another, like, exciting young black quarterback who's a dynamic runner, but wins from the pocket, which is an underrated part. And the way they came into the league, now, Lamar had to wait seven or eight games before he came in. But if you look at those first games, the efficiency and the occasional deep pass, there's a lot of similarities to be had. I think there's similarities with RG3, certainly, as well. The difference that Jaden Daniels has, and I think it's because he's 24 years old, and you talked about it on our Thursday show about Caleb Williams and his leadership. I'm really impressed with his leadership, too. But I think Jaden Daniels, as a 24-year-old, is so much.

I think he probably was a mature 22-year-old, too, not that I knew him then, but he's so mature and he commands such respect. And I think he understands the big picture on the field and off the field in a way that's really unique among quarterbacks. And I think it makes sense. I mean, he's literally three years old, older than Drake May. And he's played at multiple different colleges and been in different situations. And I think, you know, that is a big deal. I think it matters.

I agree. I think it matters, too, like understanding defenses and understanding, like, your strengths and weaknesses. It totally makes sense to me that he can get out there all guns blazes. I think you get a job like that, which is one of the toughest jobs in the world, in terms of sports, and you learn three more years. You know, you compare Jade and Daniels at 24 to Sam Donald coming in at 21 in New York. I mean, you know, Washington's another market that grabs a lot of attention, so it's not like he's gone to the middle of nowhere.

Like they will, but it's almost been like a sleeping diet. But I feel like they've grabbed attention for probably the wrong reasons. Yes. But they've been the talk of various things in the NFL, and I think so people pay attention to Washington. I think he's just one of those players that can do what Lamar does, which is defy logic, change a game. We saw that with Lamar and the Sam Hubbard, stiff arm and everything last week,

which was one of the most amazing plays I've ever seen. So, you know, we, and it is an obvious comparison. Harrison, but I work in... I'm not trying to call you basically. I'm saying I've avoided it. No, because on TV, like, I work on Sky on a Sunday night, and obviously we sell the quarterbacks. These quarterbacks will sell themselves on Sunday. Yes. Because they are boxers. They can... One's got the potential to be box office, and we already know the other one absolutely is.

We're living in a golden age of quarterbacks. They really are. I know people are like, oh, there's not enough quarterbacks. Like, when I was young, who did I like the most? I like the running quarterbacks. Randall Cunningham helped. me grow my love of the game. And now we have a great era of running quarterbacks, except they can all win from the pocket too. Justin Fields is even in showing that. And so

it's a diversity in game style. And one just like kind of hardcore thing I want to mention is this Ravens secondary is not playing up to their capability. That's why they brought Dean P's in. Right. An old trust in hand as a coach this week. Nate Wiggins. And has certainly struggled. Their safety position has struggled. That Marcus Williams and Eddie Jackson duo looks like, ooh, they've taken on some years and maybe this is the year that it's not working.

Sometimes tips over the edge, doesn't it? And so that's why the six and a half points, they're on my extra picks list as well. Now, we started out talking about basic picks. You were going, the basic pick was Detroit early. That's the one I took. The public, I don't even know, the public will be all over your side.

because the average person is going to look at that and say, why would Washington be a six and a half point favorite? And history has told me to be wary of those situations. Like, whenever the public is on one side. So I think a lot of people will agree with you. I agree with you. I think that's disrespectful for how good this Washington offense has been to give them that many points.

But usually when the public is on one side, we'll see. Like the Ravens are a great team. Maybe this will be a come-down-earth game for Washington. I don't agree. So I mentioned how I've done better with the extra picks every week. That's one reason why I'm throwing in that Patriots pick and my extra pick. So Patriots plus seven. You already mentioned Arizona plus five.

I like that too. And then let's go with Washington plus six and a half. And if... Can I ask you a question on your podcast? If I was truly bloodless, I would also take the Browns plus nine. But at this point, I am on a not picking Deshaun Watson under any, like, strategy. because I just didn't enjoy the experience so much a couple weeks ago

against the Raiders. But nine points is an incredible amount for this version of an ego. So that is not one of my extra picks. My extra picks will be the Patriots, the Cardinals, and the Washington commanders, all as pretty good-sized underdogs.

Those are my extra picks this week. You know I ask questions for a living. Yes, please. I'm going to ask you one. I know you got to go. So Drake May, are you excited? Very. Not expecting him to play that well this season.

But I'm expecting to watch the tape by the end of the season and see progress and see enough plays within a few weeks' time to be excited about. Not excited about Alex Van Pelt, their coordinator. Right. I don't think he's the right guy. I'm worried that they don't have the right infrastructure around him as a coaching staff or talent. And that's, you can only play so well.

The Jacks are Patriots next week at Wembley Stadium got a lot more interesting to watch Drake May. Because I just like you, I'm the same. I want to see the physical tools can create a spark. Sometimes you see that quarterback change. It's going to be hard because there's not a lot of people you can spark there in New England.

But we can see that with a quarterback. And I just like to see, is there going to be growth by the end of the year? And so you know going into year two, There's something to build on. I think Caleb Williams is really instructive. The way his season started against some tough opponents and how Ali Connolly talked about, they almost put too much on his play early.

They had to pare it back down and then start building him up. And now you're seeing the Caleb Williams. Drake May could have that sort of progression where it's a little rough against bad opponents early, like the Texans this week. But then you look at the schedule, including the Jaguars in London. And I see, okay, those are some games he could get some time. And he was in a similar situation in college at UNC where he was outmatched in terms of his team was not as talented as the team he was playing. His offensive line couldn't really protect him.

So I think that was good practice for him for the NFL. And he was such an exciting prospect. I had him solidly over Jaden Daniels. Maybe that's going to look bad in time. Certainly Jaden Daniels is proving he's the man. But I think Drake May is going to have an awesome career and it's going to be a great quarter. So I'm excited to see our future. Yeah, I'm looking forward to watching him.

It just makes that team more watchable straight away. So I hope there's a spark there. Listen to me saying hour. That was bad talking about the page. I'm really not. At this point, I'm a little disconnected, but I'm all in on the Drake May Express. I'm all in on Neo Reynolds. Everyone check out his podcast, of course, every week.

Inside the Huddle. Inside the Huddle. He does it through Sky. And then obviously check him out. I'm going to be on your podcast this week. You are. So just check me out there and check out Neil every week on Sky Sports. He does a great job.

And yes, when I'm over here and I get to have my Neil Reynolds quality time once a year, that's when you know that football is back. We will be back on Sunday doing a recap show. I'm really excited to do this. It's going to be crazy. 1 a.m. in the morning, I'll be there with a great gang, Phoebe Schechter, from Sky is going to be there. Ali Connelly is going to be there.

Will Gavin from Talkspor, who's fantastic, is going to be there with me. We're going to be loopy because it's going to be at one in the morning. So that'll be the next podcast you hear in this feed. And then I'll be back stateside, as they say here, and back to our normal schedule. It keeps going. Very excited. Thank you again, Neil. Always good.

We will see you next time. Hey everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it.

Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart radio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael F. Lerreau, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet.

We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast on the, iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL, visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. This is an IHeart podcast.