NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 7 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: October 18, 2024

Gregg and Cynthia Frelund are back for another week of Man vs Model head-to-head pick battle. Our duo dive right into their week 7 picks. First, Cynthia gives us her pick for the Jets at Steelers (1:51). Gregg then gives us his first pick with Patriots at Jaguars (2:56). Next, Cynthia and Gregg give us their second picks, Panthers @ Commanders (5:20) and Seahawks at Falcons (7:13). Next, we hear Gregg and Cynthia's third and final picks, Texans at Packers (9:46) and Raiders at Rams (12:40). Finally, we hear Gregg's extra picks (14:50).NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Welcome to another NFL daily where we missed the hell out of Cynthia. Freeland last week. We needed her. We missed me. We got her in the studio. Yes, I'm back in the Chris Wesleyan podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland. We missed you. Yeah, I was in London last week. Neil Reynolds stepped in and picked games for you. He didn't win a single game. He went 0 and 3. But because we're professional, we did get your picks. The listeners are going to just have

to trust us on this one that you went 2 and 1 on your picks. I mean, listen, we can show them the email proof. It's not like it's not there. Yes, it is absolutely true. You had Washington wrong last week, but you got the... Half a freaking point. Yes, but you got the Texans covering easily and the bears covering easily. When I saw your

Bears pick, I was like, why didn't I take the Bears? I felt so strong about that game there in London, and then it happened. I went two and one as well. I got the lions and the Steelers both covering comfortably and the Giants not even coming very close. So two and one for me, gets me to eight and

10 on the season. You're 9 and 9. My extra picks did poorly last week. So I'm down to 11 and 6 on my extra picks. We do have a couple. 11 and 6 is great. Still very good, but I went 0 and 3 last week. Okay. Let's start. Well, I'll let you start. Every week, by the way, if you're new to the show, both Cynthia and I, two of the foremost prognosticators in the business pick three games against the spread. Okay. For my first pick this week, I would like to go with Listen, I'm, I'm, I, whof, this one's going to be spicy, but I'm going with the Jets plus one and a half. Okay. I think the Jets win outright.

So if you're going to also give me another point in a half, I will take it. I have the Jets winning this game as well on our show Game Day View, which, by the way, people can, they can DVR. It's on early Friday morning. It's on Sunday morning. Super early if you're late night. Pacific. Saturday. Yeah, it's very early.

What do you, like, does your model put a Devante trip? into the mix and how much does that change anything? Does it put Russell Wilson into the mix? Does that change anything? Everything's in there. You know, the Russell Wilson thing just added more passes which actually added more volatility because the Jets' defense is very good.

And then if you look on the other side, Devante Adams has been the reliable option for Aaron Rogers on quick passes, basically for ever since they were together, right? So, I don't know, it kind of bolstered the Jets' odds no matter what. And I think the line moved to half a point. with Devante and I'm like fine I don't care. But you moved at another

a point or something. Yeah. I went over and above whatever the movement was. Yes. You have them winning. I like that. I agree with you but that's not going to be one of my three picks. I'm going to make, I'm going to continue to make the mistake of picking the Patriots to cover the spread. I have

it too. Five and a half is like you got to have a code as someone that's picking games. And one of my codes, one of my one of my ways I would do this would be some teams just aren't worthy of being heavy favorites and the Jaguars are one of those teams

like you can put any NFL team out there against the Jaguars I do not think they should be a five and a half point favorite in any scenario whatsoever and this is that scenario it's a neutral field game you can say Jags home game but it's not going to really matter I'm sure the Patriots fans will actually travel pretty well and it'll be even but it'll be mostly just people enjoying the game It would be fun atmosphere there at Wimbley.

So giving the Jaguars five and a half points after a week where I think Ollie Connolly on our recap show said it well, watching the sidelines. He's never seen a more disconnected team emotionally in his life. And now they've got to go spend a whole week together in London. Everyone's miserable. People think the head coach is going to get fired. Just sight unseen. I kind of almost like the Patriots straight up.

I'm not ready to go there because the last thing I did before I came in to the studio today was watch Patriots, Texans, and it was a reminder. This is a bottom five defense. Trevor Lawrence has actually played pretty well the last couple of weeks. They're just more talented than the Patriots when their offense is on the field against a pretty poor Patriots defense. They're not getting coached very well. So that maybe the Jaguars win this game, but five and a half points with Drake May making some plays last week. That was, he's very volatile so it could go really well, and he probably could have some negative plays.

But this, this Jagger's secondary hasn't made any plays all year. I mean, Andre Sisko had like the one good play and then there was allegations that he said the team quit. So I don't know. I don't know what's true or not. I just know that it looks like a mess. And that weird hockey line subbing in thing that the Jags are doing up front. Watch their defensive front.

Yes. They like do hockey line substitutions. Like, you know, like up first, first line. Second like it's wild. I've never seen, like usually see one or two players kind of on certain downs coming out but not like they're like subbing out five players. Well, that's the one part of the game that does worry me a little bit. Trayvon Walker has had some good games.

Josh Heinz Allen is still there. Eric Armst, it's there. So that matchup against the Patriots offensive line. But that's one of the reasons why, just as a little bonus on our show, game debut for my write-this-down this week. I was like Drake May over a rushing yard in total. So that was like 29-knap.

That's not one of my picks here. I guess it's an extra pick. I'm throwing that in the extra pick. No, I put that in the box. Because he's got to, when I think they're telling Drake May, essentially, if you don't see anything and the rush comes quickly, like run, dude, and he did it well last week. He is athletic enough to do it.

So is that going to be one of your three picks? No. Okay. Uh-uh. Okay. My next one is Washington by seven and a half points against Carolina. Okay. That makes a lot of sense to me.

Explain why. Well, what? I mean, number one. Listen, there's so many good things to like about Jaden Daniels. But the one thing I want to talk about on the other side of the game is the fact that, you know, no Jonathan Allen now. Now that's going to be difficult to overcome. But I actually have seen their defense defending passes a little.

little bit better in recent weeks, I'm not going to call them a good past defense. I'm not going to say that they're not going to give up a deep play. I'm not going to say that if Deontay Johnson plays, he's not going to get the answer. None of that. What I am going to say is that their ability to contain these chunk plays on every single down is limited more than Jaden Daniel's ability to create such things on the other side. So I think seven and a half, I have them on an 11 point win. And you know my mom is pretty conservative. So if my model is saying 11 points, seven and a half is like, you know, for other people, like, 15, yeah, I'm, I'm way more conservative than than most models. I like that. I agree with that one, too, if I had to pick that one.

Andy Dalton's playing just well enough that you could see him like scoring some late touchdowns and make you sweat it, but that defense is just, just terrible. Jadavian Clowny's still out of practice. Deonti Johnson out of practice the first couple days of the week, but one of his teammates said that he will play, Xavier Ligetz said if Xavier Ligette says it, it must be true, right? Xavier Leggett also says he has, if he scores two touchdowns in this game, he has like a second part of his horse galloping celebration. I don't know if you've been tracking.

I have been tracking, but there's a second part. He has a second part that he's ready to unveil, but he has to score two touchdowns in this game. I'm so glad to hear that. Yeah, what you are saying is unlikely, Washington, that's your second pick minus seven and a half. Yep. Don't forget that hook. I'm, so I'm like on the fence of what my next couple of picks are going to be. Let's go with the one I feel better about.

Seattle Plus 3. Yep. This is more of a hunch. Byron Murphy returns this week. I think he's really important for that defense. Yes. They've been getting pushed around in the middle. If he's there, he can make everyone around him better.

I like the extra rest factor. The Seahawks play on Thursday night. Falcons off of a normal week like that. The Falcons are also the, they can't keep getting away with this team. You know what I mean? Like every week is just like, Okay, Falcons, like they've won three in a row. The Seahawks have lost three in a row. And when sometimes that happens, and I see two teams that I believe are pretty close overall

and talent and overall ability, I think those streaks are going to end. That's how it works out. Now, that's not like a statistical way to really look at it. But I do think Mike McDonald, their defensive coach, which has a few extra days to work on it, looks at this Falcons offense, which is limited in the passing game. Kurt Cousins, every week, he can't move. The play action's not working. You're probably getting Tarek Wollinback for this game, too, for Seattle. So I like-

I'm Rique, okay? Rique, he switched it. And I know the Falcons, like, rushing attack has been getting a little better, so that worries me somewhat. But I think Seattle can throw on them. I'm going to Seattle plus three. Okay. I mean, I like all of it.

One thing I really like in this game is a D.K. Metcalfe touchdown. Ooh. In large part, because the go route has been, where he's been so great. And the opportunity here, I did see, by the way, it is worth noting that Justin Simmons was on

the injury report for the Falcons. Should that be something that happens? Then we're going to want to say, like, maybe look at the numbers for Tyler Lockett or Jack, the Jigba and make them a little higher. But ultimately,

I think the go route, DK Metcalf back on track with those games that are like, you know, 100 plus, he had three of those and touch that, whatever.

So I like a, I like a touch time. I also like that he has been the main character this week. in Seattle, just in the media of everyone talking about him coming off of a bad game and why it didn't work out. And it's like, he's not being the squeaky wheel necessarily, but it's that same sort of idea of they want to just get him back on track after being the main character. All right, give me your last pick. Cynthia Freeland. I know this. On fire. Got got back to

500 here. Let's go. This one is going to be someone I know you disagree with. So, because I think we need some dissension. Okay. Agreed too much. And now I'm going to pick Houston and I'm going to take a feel cool. Thank you very much. much at Lambeau Field. I think that this is an opportunity. Number one, a lot of Green Bay's wide receiving corps has ended up on the injury report. That is number

one, including Jaden Reed. Number two, Jordan Love splits when under pressure versus not when under pressure are massive. Biggest erosion in passer rating this year, like the most touchdowns passes, but also like most interceptions. It is high, risk it, biscuit, whatever that, remember that was very funny? No risket,

no biscuit. Bruce Ariens, believe it was, no, it was not the of his book. The name of his book was the quarterback whisper, and I read it. But a lot of it, a lot of no risk get, no biscuit. Do you want to know what book I've read? Total Access by Rich Is that the only one? Or just, you just wanted to brag. No, I, somebody like, told me that in order to work with Rich, I needed, they were messing with me and they were like, in order to work with Rich, you need to read his book. And I was, that's really funny. I've read that book as well. And I was not even told that. I, you know, I'm just, I'm a completest. That was even

before I worked at NFL Network. I believe it was called A Journey into the NFL's. Something like that. Yeah. And he had hair in the, anyways. It was crazy. But I'm back to Houston. I think this number one defense in terms of bringing the heat, they're the best rush defense

in the league. And they back it up with a passer rating allowed being the lowest when they get pressure on quarterback. So in my estimation here, especially with Joe Mix and back in the fold, when they have that extra fold in the run game, even without Nico Collins would like it better if Nico were playing, but we don't have that option. This is an

opportunity for Houston to kind of take that step forward. You're the third smart person I've heard make this pick in the last like hour or two. Well, I mean, I feel like it you might have been, it might have been we were in the meeting together. Yeah, not even counting that meeting. I'm like I was listening to a podcast. Oh. You're like, Green Bay minus three was going to be one of my picks. We were going to go head to head here. But I already was leaning towards jumping off. of it, partly because I just enjoy watching CJ Stroud so much. I think he's the best quarterback in the league

in the pocket right now, and it's so hard to pick against him that even though I do believe Green Bay will win and cover the three, to make it one of my top three picks feels a little rich. Now, they are missing a lot of defensive starters,

Houston, potentially. Jimmy Ward not expected to play. Camari Lasseter I think is not expected to play. A couple of the linebackers are made. I don't know. This may be factor makes me nervous, but it is tricky. We don't know for sure. So you're going to move me off of that pick. Ooh. I'm so powerful. I am going to put it in my extra picks. Yeah, put it in the box. It's there. Great. No, don't put it in the box. The box is good. Okay. So going back to what I was saying about the Jaguars don't deserve to be five and a half point

favorites over anyone. I don't think the Rams deserve to be touchdown favorites over anyone. I know the Raiders are bad, but the Raiders like every other week have this performance where it's like, Oh, like we really beat the Ravens. We really stunk last week and Antonio Pierce laid into as we're going to play hard and we're going to be better

on defense than you think. And I don't necessarily think they're going to win this game. I would certainly pick the Rams who are maybe getting Cooper Cupback. It's looking positive for that. They're coming off a buy, but they're a one-win team

getting a touchdown at home and there's no home field advantage in particular when you're playing the Raiders in Los Angeles. Not that that's like informing my decision too much. Well, not for the Raiders. For the Raiders is kind of like the game. That's what I,

What's what I mean? Like, but I just, I don't think their defense is going to be this bad all season long. Sean McVeigh and the Rams have just dealing with so many different issues. They've, they've changed their secondary up. Their linebackers are still very vulnerable. The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league, but I just feel like a one-win Rams team does not deserve to be favored by a touchdown over anyone. I mean, I have them at a touchdown, so I'm kind of like,

eh, you're on the fence. Whatever. All right. that that is my third pick. I'm going to take the rate it. I'm going to be bold because I feel like when I've not been bold in this segment, what's happened is I've taken all my bold picks

and I've put them over in the box, which are my extra picks. And those extra picks have been better. Be boring in the box. So be spicy on the show. Be boring in the box. Okay. So to review our picks,

your picks are Washington minus seven and a half. Yep. You have the Jets winning over the Steelers. Yep, but I get one and a half points just in case. Yeah, it's been. It's been moving around there. You get one and a half. Houston is a three-point underdog in Green Bay.

So those are Cynthia's picks. I'm taking the Pats getting five and a half in London, taking the Seahawks getting three in Atlanta, and taking the Vegas Raiders getting a touchdown in Los Angeles. So I'm taking three underdogs this week. And then just because I like to have a little fun. I like it. I give people some extra picks.

11. Ravens minus 4. This is just like I feel like. I feel like taking the Ravens every week at this point, unless they just, like, prove me wrong. This Buccaneers defense has a lot of issues. I know you disagree with this one, though. You had the Ravens only by one in this.

It depends on what happens with, like, if Mike Evans isn't playing, things shift. So, I don't know. Good call. This one I don't feel great about. Like, as a, I don't know, when you get on the injury report, like, after Wednesday, and he went on the injury report on Thursday, like, that doesn't feel good. That's a, so good. It's a tricky one.

This offense, just. just so good that I have a hard time seeing Tampa Bay keeping up. I have the Packers minus three. I gave all the reasons already there. And then I'm going Browns plus five and a half. I had them written down last week and then I crossed them out because I just I even said it on the podcast so it didn't count. I was like I just

can't in good conscience pick a team run by Deshaun Watson. But even though I really like them getting nine points in Philadelphia, and you know what? They did cover. And they get Nick Chub back. So I look at it like I'm not picking a Deshawn Watson team. I'm picking a Nick Chubb team. And this is a division matchup. I like Nick Chubb. Which the Browns have done very well

in the Zach Taylor era. They've traditionally beaten Zach Taylor's teams especially in Cleveland. Not that that's a huge deal, but I do think division matchups maybe make mismatches closer. And I'm just not really all in on like this Bengals defense has solved everything. So give me

five and a half points. I'll take the Browns. Well, I don't know if the Bengals defense has solved anything. But my, I just, I, in good conscience, I cannot take until the Browns get over a 20% third down conversion rate, which they haven't done all season long. It is 19%. It's up from 18% last week. Great. But until they consistently get over, can convert 20, I'm asking for nothing. 20% of your third downs, uh, I will give you a touchdown to the other team. I just think that is, that is, um, not good. I have not been, that is a decidedly ungood. No, that's terrible. Uh, that's why

Nick Chubb is going to come save the day. I've been. rooting. Nick Chubb against this Browns team because of the Sean Watson for years. I feel bad for their fans. And so this is, I think, a week where we can celebrate something good happening for the Browns. And that's going to be covering five and a half points. To be clear, the way that you navigate this for fantasy is, yes, you're starting Nick Chubb, number one. And yes, you're starting David and Joku. That's number two. Okay. And if you're playing in a daily format and you're looking for like a guy who could potentially have upside but has not done anything so far this year, it'd be Jerry Judy. So again, I don't, I'm not saying for your, for your season long,

it's only Nick Chub. That is it. But, or maybe David and Joke if you're like really bad with a tight end. But if you're playing DFS and you want some good contrarian, contrarian value, Jerry Judy. I love this. Come for the picks. Come for the picks. Come for the DFS. Fantasy. Who doesn't love DFS and fantasy, man? Well, we are not allowed to play DFS as employees, but we can give advice. Cynthia gives the best advice out there. I'm not playing. I'm just saying what I would do if I were allowed to play. I love it. Duh.

If you want more of Cynthia's numbers, she has so many numbers. Like a billion. She has a model that does everything possible. She has a YouTube, you don't call it a YouTube page. Just a YouTube, your YouTube page is called Numbers game with Cynthia Freeland.

And she's like long preview every week, picking the prime time game separately to the Thursday. night. It is good stuff. It is thoughtful. Even this week's game, which was a very, very, like, I had to do a little extra digging to make it exciting. Yes. She's working really hard on that. So people should check out in numbers game with Cynthia Freeland. Check us out on game day view. We will be back on NFL Daily on Sunday night with Nick Shook and Patrick Claibon. I went 14 and 0 in my straight up picks last week. 14 to no. So when the picks are starting to be right, like Cynthia and I, I can feel a hot street coming. You know football is back. We'll see you, son. In the heat of battle, your squad relies on you. Don't let them down. Unlock elite gaming tech at Lenovo.com. Dominate every match with next level speed, seamless streaming, and performance that won't quit.

So you can push your gameplay beyond performance with Intel Core Ultra processors. For the next era of gaming, upgrade to smooth high-quality streaming with Intel Wi-Fi 6E and maximize game performance with enhanced overclocking. Win the tech search. Power up at Lenovo.com. Lenovo, Lenovo. Hey everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move to Six, we take you inside the game

from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team-building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision-makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning. strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet, we've got the insight to help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL fantasy football podcast on the IHeart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL, visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. This is an IHeart podcast.