NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 9 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: November 1, 2024

Gregg and Cynthia Frelund are back for another week of Man vs Model head-to-head pick battle. Our duo dive right into their week 9 picks. First, Gregg and Cynthia join forces to give us their first pick for Cowboys at Falcons (1:54). Cynthia then gives us her second pick with Dolphins at Bills (3:49). Next, Gregg gives us his second pick, Commanders at Giants (5:50). Then, we hear Gregg and Cynthia's third and final picks, Colts at Vikings (8:58) and Broncos at Ravens (12:38).NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we never leave the pocket because we got no mobility. We're like Kirko Chains. I'm here in the Chris Wesleyan podcast studio for our week nine picks. It's Cynthia Freeland, time of the week. Let's go. Why would we ever leave the pocket? No, we're having so much success inside the pocket.

That's a little tease to maybe one of my picks a little later. But this is the part of the show where we talk about our picks from last week. We both went one and two. So we're just going to move past that for the season. If you check us out on YouTube, you can see the fancy graphics. Cynthia is one game up on me. She's 500. I'm one back.

You know what stinks? I actually looked at our record against the spread for the whole season on game debut. And it's much better. We're both well over 500. every single game when we're... So that just means that our time is coming and that we're going to have some great picks because the picks for this show

I feel good about this week. You're going to start us off. Three picks against the spread. Go back and forth. Listen, you are one heck of a segue artist with that intro because I'm going to go with Atlanta. I actually think Atlanta wins by at least two and a half, so three points, at least. I have five points. I'm a conservative modeler.

So ultimately, that's a pretty big win in part because this Dallas defense cannot stop any yak, yaka or yaco. I remember yards up for the catcher, yards after contact. Yako! Yiko! Both are a huge problem. So, Bajon Robinson, welcome to my lineup. Obviously, he was there to begin with, but massive day for him for me.

I love that. Let's just join forces. We haven't done that a lot on this show. But Atlanta, minus two and a half, minus three, whatever you find for it, I'm feeling it. This is one of those lines that I looked at, and I don't have a model. But it's almost like, oh, you're just begging us to take the Falcons here. I get a little worried about that. But I've been fading Atlanta all year, including last week.

I did a bad job at that, picking the Buccaneers on our show game debut. I don't think I did it here. No, you didn't do it here. I don't know. But here's the thing. They have a good running game. At the beginning of the season, it was like, can you marry up the shotgun, the pistol concepts of Kirk Cousins with the running game? When I look at it, it doesn't look married up.

And yet, it's very effective lately. So going up against Dallas, whether they have Michael Parsons back or not, fourth in overall offensive efficiency. And then this is a bad defense for the Falcons. That's why I haven't been in on them all. But I think this is a week that they can survive. So I looked at the DVOA. So that's total efficiency.

I know there's different metrics. And I'm like, am I crazy here? In total efficiency, Falcons are about 13th on the season. The Cowboys are 26th. Like, this is not a good team. they're just been like a team that Vegas hasn't given up on and then finally

they broke out those outcast sweatshirts this week. I don't know if you saw that. The Falcons outcast collab. You're not going to lose. We're going to have a lot of outcast sweatshirts this weekend. You cannot lose wearing that sweatshirt. It is like undefeated sweatshirt and we haven't even seen

them play a game in it yet, but we know they're already undefeated after having that collab. Yeah. And you looked like you wanted to tell me more about like the bad defense. Oh, no, no, no. I just want to talk about this. Like those are, that's some good swag right there. Like whoever's doing that partnership, A plus. Good job. Yeah, maybe they'll, maybe they'll be at the stadium. And so I'm feeling Atlanta minus three. We've got three, four units in

this game, two pretty bad defenses, one pretty bad offense and one Falcon's offense. I'm believing in the Falcon's offense at least. All right. So we're, we're on that together. So we got through that quickly. What is your second pick? Well, all right. For my second pick, I'm going to go the Buffalo Bills and six points. So they have to cover at least a six point. red. They win by at least a touchdown. The number six I enjoy because seven and a half is a crappy number. Six is a much more palatable number. This means the difference between one possession or two possessions. So I'm looking at the opportunity to beat Miami at home. They get Vaughn Miller back. They already have Greg Rousseau, who's been bringing the heat. Obviously,

we know that they're going to try to run the football. Devin A. Chan and three games have had three great games against the bills. However, getting that quick passing game going and the rhythm back, I don't know if Buffalo is the place that two was going to be able to make that happen. And also last week, we saw some sort of like confusing data from their defense, which had been playing pretty well, them being the Dolphins defense, clearly not the Bill's defense because they did really well in Seattle. But ultimately, I don't know what to trust about this defense. And I trust a lot more about what I've seen from Josh Allen and the offense.

Yeah, I think their toughness will be tested. We'll see if Zach Seeler plays in this game, who's a really important part of that. He's a huge deal. defense. But Jalen Ramsey has not been Jalen Ramsey. He hasn't. Giving up summon coverage and Buffalo can beat you two different ways. They can just grind you to dust like they did to the Seahawks.

They can obviously make big plays in the passing game. We saw Kyler Murray outside the pocket doing that last week. Inside the pocket as well, Josh Allen, even better at that. I'm with you. I'm now writing that down in my little extra picks because the box is back. I feel like a really honored thing to be. Yeah, because I do feel that in my soul. This match has been so bad.

in the Mike McDaniel, Sean McDermott era. I don't really like going back to past years too much, but when it's a specific coaching matchup, and you've lost five straight and week two with Tua out there, they were up 3110 before Tua got that injury. So I'm with you there. That's not going to be one of my top three picks, though. And you were right.

I did not take the bucks on this show last week. You have a good memory. I was pretty sure you didn't. But we do those shows together, so they kind of mix together. My top pick. Let's hear it. Washington minus four on the road. Now, I get it.

I could see why models might agree or disagree. I don't even know. Does yours agree with me? Strongly. That was in contention. Feel free to take it as your third. There's no rules. We could just, we could just align up.

I want to add a different one for my third. Fun. Yeah. So I get it. Why it's only for it's a road team. It's a young team that you're still learning about. It's a division matchup when they first played. Believe that was week two.

Very close. The Giants actually felt like they should have maybe won that game. but sometimes I don't want to get too complicated. It's two teams heading in opposite direction. Washington has passed every test throughout the course of this season. I know they could have lost last week. It doesn't matter. To me, they outplayed the Bears.

They look like a quality team. Two quality teams, it comes down to the end. Washington 1. These are not two quality teams. Going back to overall efficiency. Washington 9th. Giants, 25th, not close. Special teams.

Giants have been terrible week after week after week. and special teams, giving up big returns, not making their kicks. 31st, Washington 7th. Here's some more numbers. Since week four, this Washington defense, which was supposed to be the weak side, that's a pretty long sample now since week four. I'm including week four. That was the Arizona game.

Second in EPA per play allowed. Fourth in total points allowed per game. They're getting it done. Steve Weiss was in this studio and saying how they've really simplified things. They're playing fast. Now, when they play better opponents, do I think their defense is going to be world beaters? No, like we saw what happened against Baltimore. But this is not a world beater.

There's no home field advantage. Everyone's sick of Daniel Jones in New York. They could be booing by the middle of the second quarter. There's nothing really to feel good about. And so I could see it being close in the middle of the third quarter where it's still at the four or it's at seven. But I really like Washington. I think they're a real deal team and I don't believe in the Giants at all. Completely agree.

I'm going to give, just because New York's had a hard week and like Borelli and people, even though maybe not L.A. fans. Like, you know, the Dodger, you know, whatever. So I've jumped on board with the Dodgers. Dexie. Dexie's good. They're really good. They have most sacks in the league. And Dexter who I, when I, I want to like meet him and become friends with him just so I can be like, my friend Dex, you know, like I just feel like that would be good. Um, they've been, they've been good with that. And also on the other side, you know, Bobby Wagner in this defense, like, I understand he's not the youngest cat on the block, but his ability on that Washington defense to be that guy, the voice, the quarterback of the defense or whatever you want to call it,

but basically not miss tackles. Their tackle efficiency rate, meaning how they've stopped teams from getting Yaka or Yoko to, he just loves when he does that. But anyways, but yeah, like that's been a really big, that's been a really big difference maker for this Washington defense.

I'm totally on the same side as that. Good. That was one of mine for sure. I like it. And yeah, Tyrone Tracy, who had been breaking a lot of tackles, playing well for the Giants. They have a good rookie class.

But he might not be playing. He's probably not playing in this game coming off of a concussion So that's my second pick. We're both in on Atlanta. I take Washington. You had the bills. What is your final pick? In the Battle of Appaluses, the one in Minneapolis on Sunday night, I think there's a number

of five. If I like the number six, I certainly like the number five. So Minneapolis with five points in Minneapolis against Indianapolis to see who wins. To see who wins the Battle of the Appaluses. Okay. I wonder if Colts fans will travel. That's not too far to Minneapolis, relatively. You drive to them?

No, I guess. You have to, like, take a, like a Delta. Okay, explain why, because I want to know why the model you think likes the Vikings better, because I got to admit Indie Plus 5 is on my little box list. But it's not my third pick, but we're going to go against each other on that. Yeah, yeah, well, it's fine. We got to go against each other on one of them. Yeah.

A couple of reasons. I know Joe Flacco's starting, but when it comes to the types of blitz that Brian Flores likes to execute, Last week against the Rams, things were wonky at the end. When we were doing anything we were doing for our shows, we did not know that Cooper Cup was for sure playing, and we certainly didn't know that Pooka Nakua was playing until the 90 minutes prior. We didn't know.

So there was a lot of things that were different, and they could have won that game. It's not like it was such a huge butt kicking that it was super convincing either way. So the types of blitz is that Brian Flores likes to throw out there. They're not as easy to execute as Michael Pittman's, maybe not playing, that's not great. Is Josh Downs fully healthy?

I know Jonathan Taylor's supposed to play in this game and their O-line is good. However, the way that that defense executes it's just going to be very hard, even though Joe Flacker's a much better thrower. Joe Flacko is a great thrower. Yeah. You're maybe convincing me almost to cross out.

So I kind of get why, like, you look at the numbers because they're over the course of the season are maybe more meaningful than just the last two weeks. but there is an eye test thing that, okay, quarterbacks who can understand a little bit what Minnesota is doing, attack the middle of the field, copy a little bit what the last two offenses have done. Could Joe Flacco do that?

With who? With his tight ends? Josh Downs is playing. He's, he should, I know he's on the injury report, but he finished last week's games. We'll see about Pittman. When you have two, three guys that are potential pass catchers, way different than when you have like one guy, be like, hey, it's me.

Yeah, that's fair. and Bernard Reimann is on the injury report with a concussion. The NFL has done a bad job with these spotters. Like Bernard Reimann gave up huge sacks at the end of last week's game. That was awful. Then he showed up the next day and he turns out he was concussed playing through a concussion. That would be a big loss for them against a good pass rush. Five just felt a little rich for a game that, I don't know,

I just kind of expect these Vikings games to come down to the final possession, these Colts games to come down to the final possession. and you're maybe pushing me off putting that in the box. I don't know. My third pick. I haven't decided.

Wait, one thing. With Christian Darisaw being gone, I was worried, but they got Cam Robinson. That helps a lot. So that helps a big time. Okay. A big time.

I feel like we need to be on the same page here. Although I wanted the Colts as my backup to my Baltimore minus nine pick. Now, I don't like picking anything that could have an injury repercussions and maybe by the time you guys hear this, the Lamar Jackson thing

will be taken care of. I'm just going to assume Lamar Jackson's playing. When you finish on Sunday, you're a starting quarterback in the NFL, almost certainly, this is a guy who's played

through a lot of things, you're playing the next week. That said, he's mispractice Wednesday and Thursday. That's never a good sign. It's never a good sign when John Harbaugh says

it's a rest day, but then he shows up on the injury port as a knee back. I don't care. He looked good last week. I actually thought he played well against Cleveland. His offensive line didn't,

and that's a concern this week. And yet this is one of those lines where I look at, Wow, nine points. That's crazy against the Broncos. And they're almost begging you to take the Broncos. And I'm not going to do it. This is maybe a spiteful pick.

I'm not believing in the Broncos. I believe they're fine. I believe they're like eight and nine. But I don't think Bo Nix can get it done against a good defense. Is this a good defense? Statistically, no. But I do think it's a great team overall and great teams respond. That was a division game last week.

A matchup they've had some struggles with against Cleveland. You're coming off a loss. You're one of the very best teams in the entire NFL, in my mind, the Baltimore Ravens returning home. And so I think this offense can make the Broncos blitz look very average, run straight through them, be able to handle the blitzes. You got Deonté Johnson. That's another outside receiver.

We'll see how big of a factor he is. But ultimately, I'm looking at as like an eight or nine win team on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL, who's absolutely ready to bounce back from last week. So I say nine points is not enough. Bo Nix, make some mistakes, has a couple turnovers in this game, and they end up walking away with it.

Maybe it's not like a 20-point win, but it's 30 to 16. They cover the nine. Let's go Ravens. You know what's wild is the rookie quarterback who scored the most offensive touchdowns this year is Bo Nix, not J.D.? I mean, I just thought that stat was wild.

And I just want to know how you feel about my two preseason win total picks because I feel like this is, I'm pretty happy about these. My NFC pick for who was going to exceed their expectations was the Seattle Seahawks who were at six and a half.

How are we feeling about that? That's looking at. And how about them Broncos? That's even better. Five and a half, baby. Five and a half wins. Are you kidding me? Are you, yeah.

Am I happy about that? Yeah, you're right. Am I tooting my own horn? Mm-hmm. You should. You should. That's, if you can cash like an over under win total before Thanksgiving.

Well before Thanksgiving. Maybe you can cash it on Sunday. Mama's going to eat good. If I'm very, very wrong. Okay, so I'm going Baltimore minus nine as my third pick. On the off chance that Lamar Jackson doesn't play just to have a backup for housekeeping purposes,

I'll just go with your bills pick as my third. Okay. And that is it. And yes, every week I have a little box of extra picks. They've done pretty well over the course of the season. The box was, the box came out of the gate.

It's on fire. On fire. And they've taken on some water lately. But I'm going to stick with my flacko plus five. I like the bills, as I mentioned, as kind of my backup there. I get totally out of the Ravens business if Lamar is not playing. If the Marr's not playing. Yeah, forget.

That game, just stay away. And then the other one I kind of like this week was Cincinnati minus 9. As long as T. Higgins, you know, T. Higgins actually, I think, makes a big difference to me. And we're not sure about his status. But I think they are a good team that absolutely. needs to win. I'm not giving up on them. The Raiders have a defense that I won't be able to stop them through the air or on the ground. I actually think Chase Brown could get it going this week. I think this is a wild one where the Raiders have two different identities. There's the good Raiders

that can somehow upset the Ravens. And then there's the not good Raiders. And those are the ones that are like, what am I even watching here? Right. So I'm just curious which one is going to show up because the only, my only kind of, hmm, what are my little clues here? Well, Robert, Belaine has played this Bengals team quite a bit. He was a stealer for a long time. And Max Crosby, his pressure rate is low for his season total, usually. He didn't really, wouldn't really make a lot of noise last week. So my, I mean, I'm just saying for the number.

I'm not saying for the win. Just out of care. Like, I don't know. So I don't know. It's just which identity is coming. Yeah. The one that Antonio Pierce like feels like is the one that takes on the identity of their coach coming or is like that other one.

It's like when they can get up for games and Gardner Minst. plays well. That's two different things. They got up for that Chiefs game. They played well. You know, they covered. They didn't end up winning that game. Gardner-Minchu played well. I don't know if you can expect that two straight weeks. So I like Cincinnati minus seven, but I like them a lot better if T. Higgins is playing

to review. We are both in on the Falcons. I have the Bander's and the Ravens. You have the Bills, and your final pick was I forgot. Minnesota. Minnesota. That's right. We're going against each other. Thank you. Cynthia Freeland.

Check out Numbers game on YouTube each and every week. Check out this show on YouTube each and every week. We can watch both. Yes. Or if you want, you know, listen in yours, but subscribe. That's right. Like it. Check out NFL Daily.

It's been an awesome week of NFL Daily shows. Really looking forward to Sunday. What's your favorite one? It's with you. Okay. The one I'm doing. And that's the one that we're doing right now. And yes, we'll wrap it up.

We'll be there on Sunday night with Patrick Claibon and Nick Shook from Cleveland. Yes. When we're talking about November football, I mean, football's really back. It's never been more back.