North Korea News Podcast by NK News - Andrei Lankov: Why North Korean troops won’t make a difference in Ukraine war

Episode Date: January 9, 2025

In this episode, Andrei Lankov returns to the podcast to discuss key developments in and around North Korea over the last year, including the deployment of DPRK weapons and soldiers to aid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He also discusses the impact of Pyongyang’s increasing alignment with Moscow, the current state of China-DPRK ties and why […]

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Risk Group Director and Gungman University Professor Andrei Lankov. Welcome back on the show, Andrei. Yeah, thank you for inviting me. Andrei, the last time that you were on this podcast, I went and checked, was episode 307 in September 2023. So that's more than a year ago. Much has happened since then. Amongst other things, North Korean soldiers have been deployed to Russia

to help Vladimir Putin in his war on Ukraine. And Kim Jong-un has announced that he's no longer interested in peaceful unification with South Korea and North and South Korea have once again begun sending propaganda leaflets to each other's sides. So let's start with an opinion question. What do you see as the most significant development since you were last on the podcast? Of course the North Korean soldiers, actually, well, let's say North Korean ammunition

and North Korean soldiers in Russia and Ukraine. This is the single most important event in the mid or short or midterm. If you're talking about the long term, decades, maybe the official admission of the obvious that peaceful unification is not going to happen. Of course, it has never been going to happen. Kim Jong-un just stated something which every serious person has never had the slightest doubts about, but it's probably not going to have a kind of immediate impact.

It's a question of decay. So two major events. Okay. So immediate impact, it's descending of ammunition and descending of soldiers. Soldiers and ammunition, maybe. We've got numbers of somewhere between 10,000 and 12,000 soldiers apparently now. We are getting, of course some in the fog of war there is some confusion, confusion about numbers and exactly where they've been

deployed. Now you have the benefit of me that you speak Russian and so you're able to look at Russian reports. But as I understand Russia and North Korea have not yet actually what acknowledged that there are North Korean soldiers there, not officially. Yes and no oh because if you look carefully initially it was a denial. Mm-hmm You know kind of stone-faced denial. It's not happening, but it lasted for virtually a couple of weeks Then starting from late October as the officials on both sides began to give sort of deliberately imprecise

answers, which in the diplomatic language were pretty much basically admission. They did not say yes, the soldiers are there, but they put something like if something which the international media is writing about is true, it will not be a violation of the international law or something like that, which is again in the diplomatize. If I remember the correct name of this language, it means yes, of course. Well, why do you think they're being so diplomatic about it? Basically, I don't know, but the National Intelligence Service of Republic of Korea

believes they know. Because there was a report in early November, if I remember correctly, that the NIS report about some high-level visit of some unnamed, I believe they know the name, but they did not make it public, high-level Russian officials were, according to the NIS, in Pyongyang, they discussed how to behave, and they decided to basically be sort of honest, by the standards of diplomacy, quite honest, I would say. Vladimir Putin last week gave his annual long... Yes, four hours.

Did you watch any of it? No, I never watch. Okay. Do you know if he mentioned North Korea? No, he did not. He did not. Because I never watch because it's too lengthy and I usually just have a short summary. It has been noticed by many that he did not mention it.

Do you find that remarkable? No, no, no, no. I think the current line is sort of hint. The line obviously of both sides, and they believe there is sort of agreement on this line, is to admit, well, to make hints that the soldiers are there, don't try really suppress the news in media, and Russian Internet is heavily censored, but many of our listeners might be surprised, but it's far more free than, say, Internet even in China. So I think it's pretty much impossible to completely censor it, but I don't see much

effort, many efforts to control this information at all. So it's obviously also a part of policy. So some bloggers, including and largely pro-government bloggers supporting the war, everything they write about it, and they don't get into any trouble. They don't get any warnings about it and they don't get into any trouble, they don't get any warnings about it, but the official line is silence. Now for North Korea, we've talked a bit about this over the last few months, what are they getting out of it?

And I think the consensus seems to be they're getting number one money and perhaps material aid from Russia, but also they're getting combat experience, which they haven't had for some decades. Do you agree that those are the two most important things? Yes, and I would say they hope, I'm not sure whether they will actually get, they might, but I'm not sure, they hope to get some sensitive military technologies, which otherwise they would be unable to obtain. But the order I would agree, first of all, material support, hard currency or maybe shipment of wheat. If you look at the North Korean media now, they suddenly began to write a lot about health

benefits of wheat and wheat flour, which reminds me South Korea of the early 1960s when it was flooded with the American food aid, usually provided as wheat and wheat flour, of course. And they started a campaign in Seoul telling the people that wheat flour and bread and everything made of wheat flour is beautiful and tasty and very good for health. And the North Koreans are doing exactly the same now. So I would say that obviously there is a significant food aid coming there. And yes, it's number one. Then battle experience.

Judging by the first footage of the North Korean soldiers at the battlefield, they are not learning much. Because the first few footage which was released starting from roughly the 12th of December, they basically are behaving as if it's the Second World War. What do you mean? Attacks in large groups with pretty much neglect for their drones. It's basically the infantry tactics, I would say, Second World War. Well, it began in the Second World War.

It was a normal behavior of infantry on the battlefield until maybe 10 years ago. So they are not learning and some people, they basically say that, you see, one of the military observers even quoting some famous Russian general about the Japanese army, that beautiful tough soldiers and very non-creative incapable officers, with clear hint that it's applicable to North Korean troops in Russia. But maybe he is even partially correct, but in the long run, I think they will learn. I think they will learn. Do you think we can expect to see numbers increase sharply or the deployment to continue

until the end of this war, whenever that is? I would say yes and yes. I'm not sure. Of course, Mr. Putin is not asking for my humble advice, but talking about numbers. The current number, and in this regard, I'm inclined to believe the NIS, National Intelligence Service, South Korean intel. I'm inclined to believe the reports because so far, what have they said openly and officially

in the official capacity about the North Korean troops deployment, pretty much everything has been later confirmed. So I'm sort of taking the report seriously on this issue because so far they have been first to bring the news, news which were eventually proven to be correct. Do you think they have agents on the ground there, the NAS, or are they getting this from Ukrainian intelligence? I think they have agents off the ground because frankly, Ukrainians would seriously manipulate the intel to serve their own political purposes. And I don't see this manipulation in what is published by the South Koreans.

But having said that, they basically said 10, 12,000. It's not enough. It's not enough to make a serious difference. According to the estimates, the Russian side is basically getting about 25, 30,000 new recruits every month. Ah, these are000 new recruits every month. Now these are Russians. Only Russians. Okay.

And you see if it's a war where the Russian side needs about 25 to 30,000 soldiers every single month, Right, and 15,000. arrival of 10,000 or even 15,000 is not, it's nice, but it's not going to be, make a big difference. Right. Therefore, I think it's most likely to be sort of a pilot project, as they say. That is, it will be seen how efficient they are, judging by what is known, they are not

terribly efficient so far, but it's a question of time, whether they will make a difference. And if they do, I think that we are going to see more soldiers, maybe many more soldiers arriving to Russia. Is there an internal danger for North Korea in sending too many soldiers? Do you imply that South Korean tanks are ready to drive to Seoul, sorry Pyongyang? No, no, just... Or you think that Donald Trump ordered an invasion of North Korea the second day after his inauguration? Not that either, no.

So what's risky? Well, okay, so you're asking me the question here. Yes, because I don't see any risk, because you say risks, it means that they are under threat of invasion. In theory, in the long run, they have. In the short run, no, they don't. I mean, internally, if you have a lot of people whose sons are fighting in another country, in a war that has nothing to do with the defense of North Korea, is there a risk of creating some what domestic unrest or domestic unhappiness among the populace? Yes to an extent but you can flood this unrest

with money. I'm pretty sure that the Russian side is paying. I think that payments received per soldier per capita so to, per head by the North Korean side, are quite modest compared to what the Russian government is paying its own soldiers. Because as many historians noticed, this is the first war in 300 years when the Russian soldiers are paid extremely well. I'm not joking.

Since the 17th century, it's the first large war which is fought by a well-paid professional army. And maybe North Koreans are getting less, but they're still getting a lot. And if the government takes, well, 75 or maybe even 80% of their earnings, leaving them or their families if their guilt remaining 20%, it will seriously change the mood. Curious to hear the rest? Become an NK News subscriber today for access to the full episode. Head to nknews.org slash join for more information.

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