North Korea News Podcast by NK News - Examining evidence of North Korean troop deployments to the war in Ukraine

Episode Date: October 22, 2024

North Korea has deployed troops to assist Russian forces in Ukraine, the ROK presidential office asserted last week, with Seoul’s spy agency publishing evidence that Russian naval vessels transported DPRK special forces to the Far East earlier this month. NK News Data Correspondent Anton Sokolin joins the podcast to discuss what we know about the […]

Welcome to a new realm of insights into the Korean Peninsula. At Korea Risk Group, we delve deep into the complexities of North and South Korea, offering bespoke analyses that empower decision makers. Whether you're in government, business or academia, our tailored solutions provide clarity in an opaque region. Let our team guide your strategy with data-driven insights and on-the-ground intelligence. Step into a world of informed decision-making and visit KoreaRiskGroup. com today. Hello listeners and welcome to the NK News podcast. I'm your host, Jacos Wetzlud, and this episode was recorded in the NK News podcast studio

on Tuesday, the 22nd of October, 2024. And I'm joined here in the studio by my very fine colleague, Anton Sokolin. Anton, you're always busy, but this week, I feel like you've been busier than all the colleagues put together a little bit. Certainly your name is on a bunch of stories on the front page of NK News. Would you say you've been busy?

Well, I could say I was a little bit busy. Hi, Jako, actually. Hi, listeners. Great to be here once again. And yeah, happy to discuss the most pressing issues. Yes, so the most urgent story that it seems the whole world is talking about and this is something that made me text my cousins in Europe. Only half in jest I said, Korea is the axis of everything in the world.

It all comes back to Korea, whether North or South, whether good or evil, it all somehow comes back to Korea and this week Korea is now suddenly thrust into the center of the Ukraine war story what's going on Anton is there actual deployment of North Korean soldiers all right first so like you mentioned of course North Korea has gained basically international importance right now before we used to talk about North Korea's original phenomenon maybe maybe threatening the US, maybe there is something going on with Japan, of course South Korea, but pretty much until like last year,

it was never a big global phenomenon. And definitely right now it's important to spill the crosses borders, it's reaching far beyond. And now we are seeing that North Korea is even important in Europe. People in Europe started to pay attention to it, like you just said, like your relatives did. Yeah. And of course, what drew the attention is these claims by the South Korean spy agency, let's say intelligence agency. The National Intelligence Service,

formerly known as the KCIA. A good point. And basically what they did, they claimed they did, that they tracked the deployment of North Korean troops, not just any kind of troops, but actual special forces units to Russia, to the Russian Far East for subsequent use, probably near Ukraine or the Ukrainian border or we don't know, in an actual Donbass. And right now, according to the NAS, these troops are undergoing training in the Russian Far East. Like I said, there is, they mentioned four cities where they are stationed. It's Vladivostok probably, many of our listeners are familiar with this city.

Another smaller city, not so far from it, but also not so close. But anyway, nearby is Ussuriysk. The other one would be Khabarovsk, which is another big city, one of the major cities in the Russian Far East. Where Kim Jong-il may have been born, probably was born. Kim Jong-il was certainly born there, for sure. Soviet records show that at least. There you go. Andrey Lenkov would definitely confirm that. And the last city would be Blagoveshchensk. It's a city right on the river that separates Russia from China. So what's cool about this

region is that it's full of military bases. There is like a military base every couple hundred kilometers or something. So yeah, the NIS has collected some evidence. What kinds of evidence has the NIS collected that we know of? I mean, obviously, that as an intelligence agency, you never show everything, you've got to protect your sources and methods. But what do we know? For sure, they're trying to close to keep their cards close to their chest, because their evidence is basically, it's just

claims supported by some photographic evidence, which for example, depict certain troops in a certain military base being trained. But I'm not sure how exactly we can ascertain whether those soldiers that you are seeing on satellite imagery, those tiny humans that you are seeing, they are actual North Korean soldiers. But anyway, that's the claim. They provided two photographs, one from the city of Khabarovsk and the other one from Ussuriysk. It's two different military bases.

One is more like a training ground where actual soldiers can practice things, like they have, for example, mannequins, they have some mock tanks, whatever equipment and the other one focuses on more like an artillery and heavily armored vehicles like tanks and stuff. Right. Now, I know you don't want me to ask you about specific numbers here, but are we talking about a large group of soldiers that is alleged to have been sent? So the claim is what we saw. So this was not in the original NAS report, but South Korean media report a site in the NAS that about 12,000 people are supposed to, are planned to be deployed.

Okay. And for now, the number of the actually deployed forces, they say it's 1.5K, so 1500 soldiers, and there is going to be another batch soon, that's what they said. The deployment started in early October, between October 8, October 11, 12, something like that. And which is what's really interesting to me, who was actually like tracking this, trying to track any kind of activities around North Korea is that... Because we were looking for this for months. Exactly. That the deployment was carried out by four Russian naval vessels, according to the NAS.

Right. We haven't been able to ascertain whether there was actually any naval... but what the South Korean government is saying is that they could capture a night view of a Russian naval vessel docked at, if I'm not wrong, docked at Chongjin. Yeah, Chongjin, up in the North Korean far northeast in Hamgyong-Buk province, North Hamgyong province. That's correct. And it's not so far from the North Korean city of Rasson, which is the key hub for alleged arms transfers. Yeah, now, one of the lines that really struck me from your story is that, if true,

this is the first time since 1990 that Russian naval vessels have entered North Korean waters. That's quite a long time, that's 34 years, so it's a very significant move. You wouldn't just send naval vessels into North Korean waters just for fun or for a sale by or a sale pass. You're absolutely correct. And that also struck me as very interesting.

I can't emphasize it because what it says is that the level of this technical cooperation, because to organize this thing, to orchestrate it, to move the vessels, to coordinate their signals, to make sure that GPSs are not jammed, everything works properly. There is no boats nearby, there is no collisions, there is no... It's a whole huge logistical operation there. It's not just one phone call is made and the next day a ship comes in. There's a lot of steps there. Absolutely no. But also one thing that we always should be a little bit cautious is that I'm sure the People and working for the Russian Pacific fleet. Yeah, they were aware that they are being that they were being tracked

People usual military and people always assume that they are being tracked Yeah, so if it's true it I think at some point it would come out anyway Yeah, somehow maybe from the Russians themselves. Yeah. It could be the possibility too. Now, some of our listeners may also have seen floating around on social media some video footage that purports to show North Korean soldiers in some kind of, what, a center wearing Russian uniforms, talking in the cadence and the intonation?

It sounds like North Korea. It's hard to make out what is being said, but it sounds like it could be North Korea Have you seen this footage and what do you make of it? Sure. So and the footage there is actually two videos, right? There's one indoors one outdoors, right? so I will start with the one outdoors because that one came out right after the announcement of the of the NIS. And this seems to be filmed through a concrete wall of some sort. Kind of like a fence, like a little fencing. And it was filmed by a Russian soldier speaking Russian saying, oh, look, they're coming. Oh, there is more. And there was one interesting moment in that video where the guy one of the guys film and it says oh now we are being conquered by and then it cuts off there and continues with another shot

so interesting editing interesting editing by whom ever was russia conquered at the time but anyway there in that video you can't really make out North Korean speech clearly like like them speaking a certain phrase, right? You can get maybe the pitch accent there a little bit because it the intonation maybe sounds they are walking And there is of course Russians also speaking in the background So it makes very hard to make out what what they're doing But the second video but doesn't in that first video doesn't one of the Russians also say we're not supposed to be filming them. Yes Yes, which is an interesting thing. Yes But if they were say Asian Russians from Yakutia or something or or you know Russian Mongolians or whatever you wouldn't need to say that

Well, I assume in both cases you're not supposed to do that on the Russian military base I you mean filming Russian security reasons you are not supposed to be? Security reasons, you are not supposed to be doing this. Soldiers are not supposed to be filming their fellow comrades, whatever, and uploading stuff online. I don't think they're supposed to be doing this at all. Yeah, good point. And the fact that they could do this also tells us a lot about discipline in that specific unit.

Right. Now getting back to the second video. Which is indoors. Which is indoors, and it shows more like a recruitment center. Or a processing center. Or a processing center, yes. At a military base. The experts that we talked to, they could help us identify that most likely the facility in the first video and the second video is the same place. It's most likely near Ussuriysk in the Russian forest, but it's not that particular military base

that was captured on satellite imagery by the NIS. Most likely something else. And what we are seeing there is a bit more of a complex situation. It's a huge, huge line of soldiers standing and getting their basic supplies. You usually need to get your like boots, gear, some, I don't know, sex with your sleeping bags, et cetera,

gloves, and they're getting that. And while doing this, they are also, you could capture some conversations and our colleagues, our NK News team could actually understand what they were saying. And one of the sentences, quick sentences, it's a very tiny sentence that the soldier says is, tamabura, and it means like, pack it up,

kind of like, tamabura, like you need to do it, you need to pack up your stuff. And the other one is, chak chak talaputara, it means stand closer together, yeah, because you need to make room for everyone. And this video we also saw we can't. 9K News was not able to independently verify the source of this video. We are not able to say with 100% certainty that this is actually North Korean soldiers.

This is actually that particular training center. But what we can see is that there is indeed North Korean speech the soldiers look pretty much they've matched the Asian phenotype right and they appear to be most likely North Korean soldiers the video was originally posted by the Ukrainian government organization that functions I suppose as a as a Ukrainian government arm that counters this information Against Ukraine to provide to probably certain like to make let's say to keep facts straight What platform was it post room? It was posted across all kinds of platforms

Of course X it was also shared with other major media outlets and including ours. Okay Wow and one other thing I wanted to point out is that the the organization also posted a picture of it's a copy of a sheet that soldiers need to fill out with their clothes sizes and it's written both in Russian and of course the North Korean variety of the Korean language. So that also makes you sort of think. This is interesting. Now also in one of the stories that you've written in the last few days, there was a photograph of a man, well, two men, a man who looks to be Russian, Caucasian Russian, and a man who looks to be possibly Korean.

And that man may have been identified. Yes. Kudos to Colin Zverko, who actually wrote a story, separate story. Pretty much, it was like last year he wrote about it this man this so let's start from the beginning NAS also released a photo of like you said two men Russian and what appears to be North Korean officer but both wearing Russian uniforms aren't they well they're

wearing Russian yeah you can say camouflage uniforms with clear hats featuring the Russian coat of arms and stuff the red not the red just the star mm-hmm so this particular North Korean man was tracked by Collins Virkel last year because he was featured in one of articles by the Rodolphe Shinmun last year as accompanying North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on one of his factory tours. And by just strange coincidence, this man was one of only few people whose faces were not blurred at that time. Oh, yeah, because often they are. They often are. And at some point, Colin could read also his name tag on his uniform.

And we could identify his name as a recent gene. And obviously by doing cross matching, checking, double checking, triple checking, running multiple searches, Colin also came to a conclusion that this man is exactly the guy that he covered before and he was also on that tour of Kim Jong-un's tours. There were several and he was also accompanying Kim Jong-sik, it's the key figure in North Korea who runs basically this missile and basic missile development program. And NAAS also claims that this particular guy, it's another guy, don't mix them up, Ryoseong Jin and Kim Jong-sik. Kim Jong-sik is the one who also traveled multiple times to Russia,

to particularly probably work on this particular deployment of North Korean missiles, most likely KN-23. And that's what the NAS said. This is remarkable. And so we have somebody who is tied to the North Korean missile system who's been photographed in Russia. Well, in Ukraine. Most likely it was in Ukraine or near there, somewhere in that area, maybe border area.

Now what's remarkable about that photograph is they're clearly posing for the camera. This is not a candid shot where somebody got him from behind or the side or something. I mean they're looking into the camera. That's for sure. And if you run this, if you search this picture on Google or whatever, there will be no results very much showing, there will be results showing that this Korean guy as being this North Korean person that Colin reported about, but you will not find this exact photograph anywhere online.

So it must be a clear work of intelligence because well, how else would you explain this? Now in the minute remaining to us, let's just quickly talk about some of the wider implications. First of all these men that have been sent the 1500 or so part of a large group of 12,000 are they infantry? Do we have any sense of whether they're to be literally boots on the ground or in tanks or shooting missiles or what? According to the NAS it appears to be special forces but but special forces also, they could play a variety of

roles. So usually these kind of forces are used in covert operations to sabotage, to produce quick advancements on the frontline, et cetera. But we are also assuming that there could be North Korean officers as well. You remember the reports about North Korean officers being killed in Donbas. And these two categories of people could be different because obviously command and control positions, boots on the ground. We are not certain exactly what they're going to be doing, but this indication about the military bases where they were sent,

point to the direction that it could be artillery and missile related. We are not sure about their roles, but it could be from like being engineers, providing maintenance to those shells, missiles, whatever. Right. And potential as we can also guess potentially as being deployed to the frontline to operate as independent as active units, combat units.

One more thing before we jump to the next question, I will just clarify that we are not sure whether these forces are going to be used in on the Russian territory or they're going to actually cross the border into Donbass. Yes, and occupied Ukrainian territory, like you say, and participate in fighting right there. Because there's two different it's two different settings, right? Kursk, for example, where Ukraine has managed to carry out an incursion is Russia proper right and does a part of the battle zone is not considered by an internet the international community as a part of Russian territory so technical the implications are very different given their new military treaties right yeah now politically I saw the news this morning that the new NATO Secretary General Margaret had a phone call with President Yun of South Korea and that Yeah, now politically I saw in the news this morning that the new NATO Secretary General Margaret had a phone call with President Yun of South Korea and that the the South Korean vice foreign minister called in the Russian

ambassador to hear a protest about this so just Give me your very brief thoughts on what are some of the political implications of all this so for South Korea first of all They are saying that right now that they are considering various and here I am floating my quotation marks. Yes, your skate courts. Because actually South Korea is in a very tough situation right now. Because if this is true, then it's an act of escalation and Seoul will probably be prompted to respond somehow. And now they need to weigh whether what their options

are. So it could be from direct direct deliveries of arms to the Ukraine, which Seoul has managed so far to stay away from as Moscow requested. Russia threatened that if you do that, if you send stuff directly to Ukraine, we might be forced to help North Korea. Exactly. But now it seems like their cooperation has already reached that stage. So it's only natural to expect that South Korea considers this option.

The other option, of course, that we can also always talk in terms of minimal response and maximum rate and maximum option would be that they dispatch their troops. We don't know how and whether it's happening but there is no concrete decision yet but if it happens that also would cause, it would raise a lot of questions how they are going to do it. Is it going to be an official military contingent deployed there? Is it going to be just mercenaries or they will just leave this ban on participating in the war because you know South Koreans are not allowed to actually join foreign militaries as mercenaries etc. So there is many possibilities

right now and well my hope is just is that it doesn't escalate any further and somehow Russia, South Korea will work out the situation. How? Well, it still remains to be seen. Yeah. Yeah, I think this phone call between Marco Ruta and UNE was interesting. It really highlights what we've been hearing

a lot about in the news in the last few months that NATO and European security and Indo-Pacific security, these things are tied together. We can't see them as separate things anymore. Definitely, this incident definitely pushed South Korea closer to the arms of NATO. For sure, there's going to be more contacts, there's going to be more cooperation, at least, if not an actual act of escalation, but at least there is going to be more closer contacts.

Well, we've gone a little bit over time there, but I hope our listeners appreciate that. Anton, I certainly have appreciated your time today. Thank you so much for coming on the show and talking about this. Likewise. Thank you very much. We'll see you again soon. Bye-bye. Explore the unofficial world of DPRK-inspired apparel at NK News Shop.

Dive into a captivating collection of North Korea-themed t-shirts, hoodies, and more at of and Ladies and gentlemen, that brings us to the end of our podcast episode for today. Our thanks go to Brian Betts and Alana Hill for facilitating this episode and to our post-recording producer genius, Gabby Magnuson, who cuts out all the extraneous noises, awkward silences, bodily functions, and fixes the audio levels. Thank you and listen again next time.