North Korea News Podcast by NK News - North Korean missiles to border, catastrophic floods and arms factory expansion

Episode Date: August 6, 2024

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un gave a speech at a large-scale military event on Sunday where he handed over more than 250 missile launchers to the frontline units, calling for improvements to nuclear capabilities to counter the U.S. NK News Senior Analytic Correspondent Colin Zwirko joins the podcast to discuss the message behind the […]

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And joining me via StreamYard is my colleague, Colin Zwirko. Colin, welcome back on the show. Hey, Jacko, how's it going? It is going excellently. Now, you've chosen three interesting and timely stories to talk about. So let's start with the missile launches. I understand there are now 250 new tactical ballistic missile

launches on the front line with South Korea, that is on the North Korean side. And if you could describe for our listeners the photograph from the Rodong Shinwon at the handover ceremony of these ballistic missile launches on August 1. It's quite dramatic. Yes, so North Korea published this on Monday morning saying that they held a ceremony in

Pyongyang to hand over 250 launch vehicles for the Hwasong 11D short-range or close-range ballistic missile system. And these each can carry four missiles. So that's a thousand missiles that they're saying will be deployed. These are, state media says that they're nuclear capable missiles that can be fitted with nuclear warheads, but they also serve a conventional role. So there's no, it's not, no one's saying that they're about to have 1000 nukes on the border because they are not believed to have that many nuclear warheads to begin with. And so they're using some language like to frontline units. So that doesn't mean right on the border. It means

units that are responsible for the border. So they can be far, they can be a little far out from the border, they can be closer. And they just held the ceremony on Sunday. So they can be far, they can be a little far out from the border, they can be closer, and they just held the ceremony on Sunday. So they're not there yet, but they were officially handed over. So the handover was done in Pyongyang, was it? Yeah, in Pyongyang at the military parade training complex, which is a replica of Kim Il-sung square. So they had 250 of these launchers set out in perfect rows filling the entire square. And they held this big ceremony there at night. And they also had a heavy metal version of the National Anthem, which was something very strange. So I recommend you check out a story on our website. It's a heavy metal version. Are we talking about distorted guitars? Yeah, like singing as well as the singing or is it instrumental? Yeah, yeah, singing and heavy metal guitars and drums. It was quite strange. So these weapons are something they've been showing us that

they've been producing for... Kim Jong Un showed off the factories where they were producing them. Watch out, we think we have found one of the other factories where they might be being produced. So I'm working on a story about that, which hasn't been disclosed in public yet. So for our listeners who don't have a Rodong Shinmun subscription, that's a good reason to get onto nknews.org and find Colin's article from yesterday, the 5th of August, titled North Korea Says It Deployed Nuclear Capable Missiles to South Korean Border with these launchers, transport-directed launchers, or TELs. Have you ever seen so many TELs in one place at one time, Colin? Yeah, that's a good point. I guess you can count them all up at a parade of different types and you can get over 100 but yeah I think you're right. Yeah it shows just that they're able to produce these things. There's been a lot of doubt over

the years about their ability to manufacture these. I've also been curious about just how much this system, this weapon system in particular, has been related to their exports to Russia. So they haven't been found to be exporting this missile to Russia yet, just the larger version of the Hwasong 11, which is the Hwasong 11A. But they're producing all these launchers and it comes as pretty much, we're finding in hindsight when Kim goes to a missile factory in the last two years, later on we find out it has something to do with their export plans to Russia. This is not every single case, but this is becoming a trend. So yeah, I really, it's, it's, we've also got an article coming up from a contributor this week showing this exact missile system deployed in the field already prior to this ceremony. So it's really ramping up. Like the point is that North Korea has the ability to produce

these things. Yes, we don't know how many warheads they have, but the conventional missiles serve an effective purpose to deter South Korea as well. Well, speaking of doubts, is there any reason to believe that these tails might not be fully operational or that they might not actually be loaded with ready-to-fire missiles? I mean, I think we can question whether or not they have the amount of missiles, but I don't think we could question their ability to produce that number of missiles. I don't know how long, I don't know where this exact missile is produced. It might be produced at the Hamling factory that Kim went last year that produces the bigger version of that missile. But yeah, I mean, people who

like to question whether or not they have this amount of missiles are not kind of missed the point. It's something that a lot of analysts harp on a lot, which is that deterrence factor works regardless. And it's not a completely Potemkin program. There might be some fooling around on the edges of the numbers. But am I right in understanding that with this kind of a launcher, only one type of missile or one size of missile can fit into that into that system? Yes, into that truck and those launch boxes on the vehicle. Yeah. So those 250 tails can only fit the Hwasong 11. Is that right? The Hwasong 11D, which is a smaller kind of the yeah. Okay. Now, why do you think Kim Jong-un decided to do this? To send them to the frontline units?

Now, why do you think Kim Jong-un decided to do this, to send them to the frontline units? A lot of his speech was about his US policy, US and South Korea policy. It's his, he's very consistent in his speeches in the last couple of years, which is he's saying, I have to do this to show the US that we are never that our nuclear weapons program is irreversible. We're never giving it up. He even said something interesting in this speech, which is he said, we have the sovereign right to continue building up our weapons and nuclear weapons, even if they were to be in the process of dialogue. So he's saying next time there won't be any kind of freezes.

He's not gonna offer any freezes. He basically says, we're doing this for our defense. We don't trust you guys. So this is another show. And he says, we're doing this for our defense. We don't trust you guys. So this is another show. And he says, we're going to do this every year. He actually said the word unfiltered. So he's kind of predicting that in the future, he's going to be more open and show off his his military production more openly, kind of like you see in Russia, or China, where they're just a lot more open about, you know, not totally open, but a lot more open about their numbers and just how real their systems are. So we might see little training videos pop up on the

internet of a unit practicing loading missiles into these in the future. And Kim might not even be there. That's kind of a normal military thing. So yeah. Has the UN command or South Korea expressed any concern about this? So there was a regular briefing yesterday from South Korea's defense ministry and also the ministry of unification and both of them really brushed this off. I think kind of like, oh, we know this is coming. They showed us these missiles. They showed us these vehicles a long time ago. We know they're making them. We saw them preparing for this ceremony. You know, it doesn't change much in the grand scheme of things, if there were to be a war,

but it reinforces the reality, which maybe some people don't recognize, which is that you cannot denuclearize North Korea, they're not going to disarm, and that they're getting closer and closer to convincing some of these skeptics that they do have capable enough systems at least to be effective in a combat situation. Okay, all right. Well, we spent a lot of time on that story, so we're going to have to rush through the next two. We've got one on flooding. Colin, you're our eye on the sky at NK News and NK Pro. You're able to spot things in satellite photographs that I could only dream of. Tell us what you found in satellite images related to recent flooding in North Korea that you wrote about for NK Pro on August the 1st. Yeah, the flooding that state media,

that you know, Kim Jong-un went to a flooded area in Shunneju, which is on the very northwest corner of the country on the border with China and the Yalu River, the way which separates the two countries that flooded and it the Shunedu is completely covered in water, the outskirts on the northeast side of it, just the land was completely covered in water. These are low lying, sometimes kind of large islands on the river. But he did mention that there was flooding also in Jagang province and Udangang province, but he didn't really go into the details there. He said there was loss of life, quote unquote, there were deaths, but then later he denied that there were any deaths in Shinaju. So it seems to be, and so what we uncovered in our reporting was really dire situation in Jiagang province and Udangang province. And the flooding was crazy.

The mudslides, there was one village that was just completely wiped out by a gigantic mudslide. I can't remember, I forgot, one to 200 meters wide of just destruction, completely wiped out mud. And those people probably didn't get much warning, if any, at all. Very violent looking. There's broken bridges all up and down the Jangda River, which goes north to south through Kangae. So it seems to me that some people died. I have no idea how much. State media is really downplaying this.

It's not only a humanitarian tragedy, but you got to wonder what's going on with his weapons development and weapons exports to Russia as a result of this. Right, because this area is known for weapons factories, right? Yeah, we can see on the imagery that the flooding directly affected these factories, whether it's cutting them off from the rail and road networks, or not a whole lot of evidence of the factories themselves being damaged, but more like the workers' homes and the transportation in and out. So I think people watching the Ukraine War, the

Russia's war on Ukraine would want to look to this as a real peripheral, but probably going to affect things as far as Russian arms, Russia using North Korean arms. South Korea has offered relief assistance. Has North Korea responded? North Korea, forgive me, I haven't seen exactly what he said, but I did see some reporting that he, well, let's just say he's not going to accept South Korea's offer of help, but Russia also helped and Kim Jong-un. Well, anyway, Anton, one of our reporters here wrote that he has not accepted the Russian help either.

I'm not sure if he directly addressed the South Korean help, but we cannot expect him to accept the South Korean help. What's your take on all this, Colin? What does it say about North Korea's flood control systems given that heavy rains tend to come regularly on an annual basis? State media talks a big game about preparations. They do try a lot of tree planting. One of the main kind of motivations of tree planting is preventing erosion on the

mountain sides. I honestly don't know how you prevent something like this. In these cases, when there was a gigantic mudslide raging through a small narrow valley, you know, where it's goes from is like a very steep angle from the top of a nearly 2000 meter mountain down to the river to the to the river, which is just below. I don't know, maybe you don't build a village there in the first place. I don't know if you can prevent stuff like that. But surely there are signs of weak construction of bridges in some cases. In other cases, they survived.

They're talking a lot about building up river embankments and we can see I haven't nailed down a precise case where they said this embankment is a new one, which is good. And then that it now failed. But I imagine there are some of those in Chagang province. But I imagine there are some of those in Chagang province. Yeah. OK, now onto our last story. For NKPro, late last month, you wrote a two-part article about North Korean weapons factory upgrades. Why two parts?

Is there a lot going on? There is a lot going on. And this is also about the hints at what they're doing with the Russian exports. I would say a big takeaway is that, well, there's upgrades or construction at over 10 known or new weapons factories across the country right now. A lot of these are anti tank missiles and rocket artillery, or the vehicles which the launch

vehicles for these systems, and some of them have been found to be exported to Russia already, some of them knew evidence is emerging just in the last week that they might have already started to export things like anti-tank missiles. So that would be new. And in hindsight, it's very interesting because it, like I said earlier, it makes us think, you know, maybe a lot of this since the last two or a little more years, Kim Jong-un has been doing a lot of weapons factory visits Which he didn't used to do in the same way He used to say there are normal factories now

He's saying the weapons factories, but he's not saying where they are and then we have to go find where they are But yeah a lot of them are we can say a lot of the state media around this development is about Anti-south Korea short-range systems threatening South Korea. Are they preparing for war? There was that whole thing last year about or earlier this this year about preparing for war and you know that controversial analysis. And I can, I think that a lot of it actually points to Kim Jong-un has some new export contracts, a lot of money or something else coming in that he's bartering for maybe with regards to his developing you know nuclear weapons or nuclear submarine or something.

And that's very important to him and that pushes the rapid construction of these factories. And we don't see that kind of rapid construction or urgency when it comes to the domestic systems in some cases. So there's a lot to figure out here still, but it's really all about number one, they have a lot of resources to build these weapons now that maybe they didn't in the past or definitely not in the early stages of COVID. They're getting help from abroad, probably, and they're mass producing now in numbers that they weren't before. Yeah. Now, your July 26th article titled North Korea Expands Factories Making Anti-Tank Missiles

Russia Reportedly Wants gives some good brief details about five new factories. I encourage listeners who have an NK Pro subscription to go and look at the table in which you neatly put all the details together. These factories have all been built in the last three years. And of course, there's also a plethora of satellite photographs that you've analyzed and kindly labeled for readers. What's the process like, Colin Colin of trawling through photos,

knowing that there is something defined. Do you find, do you feel a small sense of victory each time you're able to link a place to a name? It's a puzzle for sure. One of the things in the first article of that two part series that I was pretty proud of was that there are these images of Kim Jong-il at a fact, or Kim Jong-il is a fact or Kim Jong-il is is looking at some surface to air missiles, anti air missiles.

And we've had these photos for almost a decade now they were released later. But looking at these things day in day out, you start to recognize the factory managers who often go from a weapons factory on to maybe a central weapons role or a position like the guy in Jyagang who went on from this Hwichan youth electrical complex, which is what we found is producing surface-to-air missiles. Just by recognizing the faces and then using satellite imagery to match the photo with the, you know, to geolocate where he is in that photo. So that was quite interesting and we can now look at that place and say, oh, they're upgrading, maybe they're about to push their surface to air missile production. Is that a domestic concern or is that about exporting? You know, these kinds of things are all coming out of these

digital little puzzles from images. So yeah, it's very interesting. Excellent. All right. Well, this is it's great work. Wonderful analysis again, as usual, Colin. And thank you so much for coming on the show and telling us and our readers about it. Thanks, Jack. I appreciate it. Okay. And tune in again next week for more. next week for more. In the intricate world of Korean affairs, tailored intelligence makes all the difference. Korea Risk Group's consulting services offer specialized, actionable intelligence designed

to guide your career-related decisions. We provide bespoke consulting services that cater to your unique challenges and goals. From policy analysis to market entry strategies, we bring clarity to complexity. Transform uncertainty into opportunity and visit careerpro.com solutions today. Ladies and gentlemen, that brings us to the end of our podcast episode for today. Our thanks go to Brian Betts and Alana Hill for facilitating this episode and to our post-recording producer genius, Gabby Magnuson, who cuts out all the extraneous noises, awkward silences, bodily functions and fixes the audio levels.

Thank you and listen again next time.