North Korea News Podcast by NK News - North Korean soldiers in Kursk, ROK retaliation and propaganda leaflets in Seoul

Episode Date: October 29, 2024

Editor’s note: Starting Nov. 21, our full-length episodes with special guests will only be available to NK News subscribers. This shift allows us to invest in bringing you top-quality interviews, exclusive insights and a more comprehensive NK News experience. Listeners who sign up before Nov. 30 pay just $1 for their first month, then get […]

Hello, podcast listeners. I have an important announcement to share about upcoming changes to the NK News podcast. Starting November 20th, our full-length episodes with special guests will be exclusively available to NK News subscribers. This shift will allow us to invest more in bringing you top quality interviews, cutting edge analysis and a more comprehensive NK News experience across our website and podcast platforms. Don't miss out.

Subscribe now to stay fully informed and support our mission to raise the bar in North Korea reporting. Until the end of November, podcast listeners can sign up for just a dollar for their first are our daily update and week ahead newsletters, plus get exclusive invites to online webinars and occasional in-person events. Join our community today and help to the NK News podcast. This episode was recorded on Tuesday, the 29th of October, 2024 here in the NK News studio and today, perhaps more than ever, the date is important because everything that we say now may be out of date by the time this podcast is released.

Today I welcome back Jongmin Kim. Welcome back from the show. Thanks for having me. It might go stale in just an hour. There is so much going on there and it's not all happening in North Korea or even on the Korean Peninsula, but it's all involving North Korea.

So let's start with North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia to help out in the war on Ukraine. What is the latest? The latest again, which might change, NATO just confirmed per South Korean information, South Koreans are there to brief NATO about what they found out that they are indeed already deployed and were to be deployed. And it seems like they are mentioning Kursk as the area for the current deployment, it seems. Right, so whoever is running the NATO liaison office here in Seoul has been busier than ever lately. And to see the new NATO secretary general and former Dutch prime minister, Margaret,

to come out and make a statement overnight, quoting South Korean intelligence. Right, and there has been some focus in local media like why is not NATO or the US not responding immediately to the NIS findings last last Friday about the deployment. But then they took their time a little bit and then came out with confirmation each. And it seems there are different numbers that Ukraine and South Korea is mentioning right now about like how many have been deployed so far and what the total number might be. It differs a little bit, but the gist is deployment is happening it seems.

What's the maximum number that we're looking at? In total, 12,000 is what Zelensky is mentioning as what North Korea might be planning as a total number. But not there yet though? Not right now. It seems that right now, Ukraine is staying 3,000. Okay, now of course the really important thing is how are these soldiers being used and where are these soldiers being used? Let's start with the where, I guess. Because the big question for the world is

North Korean soldiers used by Russia being deployed outside of Russia's sovereign territory. So for example, in areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, or are they being used in Russian territory that is currently on the receiving end of an attack by Ukraine, so Kursk, so this would it would certainly change things if the North Korean soldiers were being used actually on Ukraine territory, wouldn't it? It seems like South Korean understanding is that North Korean plan is to ultimately go as far as the Ukrainian territories, right?

But it's all speculation right now. They're not confirming anything. But like I mentioned, so as far as I know so far, they haven't done that yet. And also a big if is the big uncertainty is what kind of troop is being sent as well to those locations. There are being sent as well to those locations. There are conflicting reports as well. Yes, when I spoke to Anton last week, it was supposedly special forces. They hadn't yet been sent to the battlefield. They were in staging and reception areas in Russia's Far East receiving

uniforms, receiving some form of training or alignment with what Russian... Right, there were two videos that were released on social media it shows what appears to be Asian soldier we would assume that they are North Koreans receiving the Russian what looked like a Russian what you call the uniforms for Russian khakis or Russian camouflage right and there were some reports there was a release from I think it was from Ukrainian intelligence agency that the Russian soldiers are giving out survey forms for North Korean soldiers to fill out like their head size and you know for the uniforms. But it seems South Korean intelligence believes this is Baekho Budae or the Taepung Budae that are meant for you know special

forces related operations. But there are, like I mentioned, conflicting reports about how well-trained these soldiers are because I think it was Wall Street Journal citing someone in the government saying that these are kids in their teens and early 20s. So they're what, either new recruits or new conscripts? Right, and in North Korea, the military conscription, it's longer, but still if they're that young,

the question arises on how much they will actually prove to be useful for the Russian troops. Yes. Now, did you see the story that came out in the Washington Post this morning that quoted a former Kremlin official as saying that it's cheaper and politically simpler for the Kremlin to deploy North Korean forces. So I mean if that's the rationale behind this, then the skillset and the actual battle readiness of North Koreans isn't as important as having them there. Right, just the headcount, right? For the battleground. It seems like it's South Korean understanding as well. They have been saying the media and the some officials they've been referring to this term chongalbazi as in... well cannon fodder right so they they have been criticizing kim jong-un

for sending these young kids to the battlefield basically to just fill in the headcount for the russian troops rather than serving any very important purposes there gee okay well that you know terrible news for their families if if that's the case, of course. In South Korean lawmakers and potentially it seems like national security officers, well, they are considering psychological operations on the battlefield if they could send the monitoring team to Ukraine to conduct some sort of... Encourage defections. Right, right, exactly.

And desertions. And of course, this is something that North and South Korea have done against each other's militaries up until 2000, from 53 to 2000. Well, from 1950. We saw this in Vietnam War. And in the Vietnam War that the North Koreans were trying to encourage South Koreans to defect as well. Exactly.

Yeah. And so, well, we're in a really bizarre situation that actually we might be seeing, amongst other things, a proxy war going on in Russia and Ukraine between North Koreans and South Koreans. The other side of the globe. This is really surreal. Right. And so, you know, some people called the Korean War a proxy war between the two superpowers. And now we're seeing a proxy war between the two Koreas 70 years later over in Europe. And then we have already been discussing like the potential implication of both Korea's assets being used on the battlefield, right?

Like testing how good they are actually. And now the soldiers being there, South Korea, I doubt that they will be sending military like troops or anything. It will require the National Assembly approval, but I think it will be technically okay for the government to send some personnel for observing. Well you've got to have some intel personnel, some military intel personnel to be in charge of the PsyOps operations if that's what they're going to do.

And study the tactics really. And study the tactics. Because we haven't seen North Korean soldiers doing actual like modern warfare that involves these advanced technology weapons, right? And also to interrogate and debrief potential North Korean deserters and defectors too on the battlefield. Right, and that's again, that's a big if as well. What will North Koreans do if they're captured? What will be the North Korean, what would have been the North Korean instruction to these kids, the soldiers, if they get caught, what do you do? Kim Hyun Hee and her male supervisor who bombed the Korean Airlines plane back in 1997, their instruction, I mean they had cyanide capsules,

their instructions were clear, kill yourselves rather than the, and they both tried, the man succeeded, and Kim Hyun Hee was not successful, which is why she's still alive today. So yeah, it's certainly possible, but let's not speculate too far on that. Let's hope that it doesn't come to that.

So the South Korean response there, the ROK military, I mean, government here has been talking for two years about not sending lethal technology to Ukraine, partly out of fear that Russia would help North Korea do something, some military adventurism perhaps. Does this change the calculus? Are people in the South Korean administration saying, well, now maybe we can send bullets and bombs and, and, you know, grenades and whatnot to Ukraine.

South Korea has been moving the bar quite frequently already when they were mentioning the red line for Russia. They mentioned red line, but the red line was pretty vague. And it seemed like Russia has been crossing the red line quite frequently especially when they signed a treaty with North Korea right right but now it seems like it actually crossed that line whatever that is because Seoul sort of tried to reframe the term lethal weapon into defensive and offensive I think this is like a legal sort of buildup into trying to send some because the high level official at the presidential

office explained lethal weapon is an emotionally charged word they said and that South Korea might consider a step-by-step provision for Kiev right starting with the defensive weapons for example anti-missile technology right anti-air probably okay uh like surface to air guided weapons to shoot down russian planes yeah Yeah, yeah, jets, exactly. And if Russia crosses the Red Line even further, they might consider offensive weapons, which might include, I think, talking to experts, tanks, self-propelled howitzers, South Korean self-propelled howitzers. Which we know they make. Right, and it's very popular worldwide right now. In Australia, they've got that new facility there, on defense building how these self-propelled howitzers exactly and might go as far as like ballistic the the surface to surface ballistic

missiles as well now what's the opposition party the the democratic party saying about all this yeah i just wrote a story yesterday it's uh they are faulting yun the South Korean president for Russia and North Korea getting closer and closer, saying like many DP lawmakers in the past two weeks have said that it's due to Yun's bad diplomacy that pushed North Korea into Russia's arms. And they are also- Have they forgotten about 2019 and 2020? I mean-

I know, so PPP, the ruling party pushed back immediately, which is fair, and the opposition- I think things don't happen in a vacuum. Yeah, exactly, and opposition party is further saying that there has been this exclusive report in Hangul Gilbo over the weekend about how the NIS will be sending a monitoring team, including interrogation team.

Yeah, ah, okay. So this was the big news locally and domestically and Lee Jae-myeong was saying that what will these people do? Like if you look at the movies these people are really really cruel and God knows what's gonna happen. He's basing this from movie scenes and but let me just point out South Korea is signatory to Geneva Convention and a bunch of other international law. I don't think, I think it will be very risky for South Koreans to go as far as torturing

because Lee Jae-min was saying that, are you trying to spread the torture technology to the world? But this has sort of become like a domestic political spat. And it might not even come to that. I mean, if even a handful of North Koreans soldiers say, okay, forget this, I'm out of here. And they walk across the line and say, all right. So my speculation is even if South Koreans send these monitoring team of observation

team, they will really focus on defection and getting information rather than torturing them. Well, then hopefully they've also learned from long experience, which I also hope the American Army has learned this, that you can get more information by wooing your interrogation subject rather than by force. We have a long global history debating that, right? Boy, oh boy. Okay, so there is a lot going on here in South Korea with regard to response. Now what we talked about earlier, Psys and psychological campaigns, for the first time

in 25 years, it looks like South Korea sent leaflets over Pyongyang because they stopped under Kim Dae-jung around the time of the summit with Kim Jong-il. Then Anthony and I talked about this drone that was allegedly spotted over Pyongyang dropping anti-Kim Jong-un leaflets. Are we sure now who did that? I mean I know North Korea's released this map showing allegedly how they were flown from Pyongyang over the sea. Right, that was yesterday right? Okay it was very very recently yes. And South Koreans are repeating this phrase saying

it's not even worth responding to. And that was funny because so basically South Korea is denying that it happened. And what's funny is Kim Yo-jong issued a very weird statement saying mirroring the exact same language. This is a hypothetical situation, but what if a North Korean drone appears in Seoul airspace and anti-South Korea leaflets are found in front of Yongsan? And then we have, there's no worth responding to such questions.

She was mirroring the South Korea. So there's like a war of words going on between the two Koreas without confirming clearly whether or not that happened. And speaking of which, there were leaflets found in South Korea. Last Wednesday and Thursday, I think over, it looked like it happened over two days right so there were multiple drops but not by drone but by balloon yes balloons and I think South Korea was mentioning

it was like 20 balloons or something that's not too many actually oh okay well it's fewer I suppose than the trash compared to the trash balloons compared to the trash balloons but boy they were really accurate in dropping them over Yongsan weren't they? I mean they dropped them right near the president's new office he's no longer in Chongwon-dae. They have the explosive timer we've seen. Now is it a timer or is it a GPS or is it a combination of both? Because I've heard both used in the South Korean media. It's not clear because South Koreans just keep saying it's explosive timer. Because that was the old technique they always used timers in the past. Right but if it I'm guessing now they have GPS as well

because it was so accurate. Right, when it gets to a certain point. That's the location. Somebody, you saw the photograph that Rafael Rashid retweeted by somebody else, I forgot the original photographer's name, of a balloon over Namsan and then popping it in the leaflet's photo. Oh yeah, that was a great photo.

Great photo, I mean, that's hard to get those moments there. And our own Alana Hill also brought some hard copies of the Tower found in Seoul in front of young son. They are quite interesting Yes, they use North Korean wordings like they didn't even hide that they're in well, they spelled young son Oh young son, they weren't even trying to protect me They have in the past presented these leaflets using South Korean wording and spelling and with the name of a putative South Korean civil organization you know and this time none of these fake organization names, none of the South Korean spelling they're just clearly saying okay we're North Korea and we're leafleting you but they haven't

they have to come out and accept like have they admitted yeah we did this? Not really but I felt like it was something like a power move, like not hiding it and saying that, see, we can do this. And we're making this. And I know many South Koreans will agree with what we say. And guess what? On YouTube, a lot of these, you know how people watch news on YouTube these days?

Everybody's on YouTube. And in the reply sections, many of the South Korean responses are like, oh, yeah, actually, North Koreans are saying the truth. So maybe they succeeded to a certain extent, I guess. They targeted their criticism at Yoon and Yoon's wife with the handbag and the luxury goods. And the dog, why the dog?

And the dog, yeah, okay. But a lot of people, Yoon's not that popular and his wife, Ms. Kim, seems to have attracted a lot of negative attention in the media. Right, the North Korean leafletlets focused on how luxurious she is. And that message is not a hard sell in South Korea, right? I mean, his popularity figures are low anyway, so that's probably not difficult to sell that message. But as I said before, for South Korea, this is the first time,

if it is the South Korean government that sends those leaflets to Pyongyang, it's the first time since 2000. For North Korea, it's the first time since 2000. For North Korea, it's the first time since the Winter Olympics of 2018. That was the last time they did leafletting. They made some leaflets in 2019, but never flew them. Right, they took photographs of those anti-moon leaflets with cigarette butts and threatened to send them,

but they didn't, but they did blow up the liaison office instead. They did blow up the liaison office. They've been sending trash for months, but this is the first time they've actually sent paper propaganda leaflets of the exact same size, and it looks like the same designer of the previous ones that they were sending during the Park Geun-hye

and the beginning of the Moon administration. So it feels like a lot of stuff is happening again, like this history rhyme sort of situation right now. Gosh, okay, well, we're gonna keep watching this and hope that this podcast doesn't get too outdated by the time it gets released this afternoon. I. Okay. Well, we're going to keep watching this and hope that this podcast doesn't get too outdated by the time it gets released this afternoon. I hope so. Jongmin Kim, thank you so much for coming on the show today.

Thank you for having me. A reminder that starting from November 20th, our full-length episodes with special guests will be exclusively available to NK News subscribers. This shift will allow us to invest more in bringing you top-quality interviews, cutting-edge analysis and a more comprehensive NK News experience across our website and podcast platforms. So don't miss out. Subscribe now to stay fully informed and support our mission to raise the bar in North Korea

reporting. Until the end of November, podcast listeners can sign up for just a dollar for their first month with the following 12 months at 50% off. Head to nknews.org slash join for more. You'll get full access to the NK News website, news, analysis and opinion every day, our daily update and week ahead newsletters, plus get exclusive invites to online webinars and occasional in-person events where you might even meet me. Join our community today and help support the podcast grow. Ladies and gentlemen, that brings us to the end of our

podcast episode for today. Our thanks go to Brian Betts and Alana Hill for facilitating this episode and to our post-recording producer genius, Gabby Magnuson, who cuts out all the extraneous noises, awkward silences, bodily functions, and fixes the audio levels. Thank you and listen again next time. you