Odd Lots - 60: These Were the Most Interesting Stories of 2016

Episode Date: December 23, 2016

It was quite a year, 2016! Trump and Brexit alone made it one for the history books. But there was more than political upheaval. In this end-of-year episode of Odd Lots, we speak to five reporters and editors from Bloomberg News to find out what they thought were the most interesting and important stories of the year. Among the huge stories that you might have missed: A momentous turn by the Bank of Japan, the incredible significance of the Mexican Peso, and of course, a Hamptons house party called #sprayathon. Featuring: Max Abelson, Ed Hammond, Dan Moss, Megan Murphy and Mike Regan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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That's vanguard.com slash audio. All investing is subject to risk vanguard marketing corporation Distributor. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Wisenthal. And I'm Tracy Allaway. So Tracy, it's been quite a year, huh? That's one way of putting it, yes. A lot of things happened this year that probably people wouldn't have necessarily predicted coming into this year. I think we can be a bit stronger than that. I think we can say a lot of crazy things happen this year. All right. Yeah, I think you're right. I think maybe I was understanding. a little bit. But I just wanted to be, I just wanted to be on the right side of things. I wanted to be sort of conservative. But yeah, it was a pretty wild year. And I feel confident in saying that

for several years down the road, people are going to be talking about various events that transpired in the year 2016. Yeah, the history books will be looking back, just like us. And they're probably, all the historians are probably going to be listening to the Odd Lots podcast. Really, really get a sense of what happened, don't you think? Yeah, we should bury this in a time capsule. it? Yeah, I agree. Okay. So there's obviously the obvious stories, you know, Brexit, Trump, all that. But there are probably also a lot of facets to these stories and stories that people missed that we don't want those historians to pass over and miss. That's right. So we are going to do the historians work for

them, I guess, and try to dig up some of the lesser known stories that happened this year, some things that really maybe taught us a lesson or entertained us or amused us in some way or that we thought were very important. So who do we have? So we've brought together a bunch of folks from Bloomberg News who cover various aspects of our world day in and day out. They cover stories better than just about anyone in the world. I guess I'm going to, I'll go around and introduce them. And then we're going to talk to them about their favorite stories of the year so we can catch all the stories that we might have missed. All right. So let me go around the room. I'll start. Ed Hammond is with us. Hey, Ed, how are you doing? He covers deals at Bloomberg.

We have Mike Regan, who is a veteran coverer. I don't think that's a word, journalist covering the market, particularly the stock market for a long time, who's leading a new blog venture here at Bloomberg. Thanks for coming, Mike. Oh, thanks for having me. Max Abelson, Wall Street, Wall Street Whisper, Wall Street Reporter. He gets Wall Street to speak his mind. I thought he was going to say Wall Street Legend.

Wall Street Legend. He stumbled on the word. Yeah, no, I was going there with that. He was thinking it. Wall Street's Max Abelson. Dan Moss, our top editor for economics coverage. Great to be. Who made a great prediction going into this year, which we'll talk about.

Probably one of the best predictions of the year. And Megan Murphy, who led all of Bloomberg's politics coverage this year and is now on a new venture leading Businessweek magazine. So thanks for joining us, Megan. Thanks for having me. All right. So now that we have all that out the way, let's talk. about our favorite stories this year. And Ed, let's start with you. What was your favorite story of 2016? I'm not going to go with the deal story. I was sort of tempted to self-aggrandize and go with

the deal that we had broken. But I decided instead to go with the story from July, which I partly like because it was kind of in the summer when everything was quiet. And it was this story of Brett Barner, who was the hedge fund manager at Louis Bacon's fund. And he trashed his mansion out in the Hamptons and it was just it was one of these like classic you know we all sort of know hedge fund guys like that and they all pretend desperately that they're not at all like that and they're actually very responsible and they do all this charity stuff but he did exactly what we all know they really do which was go to a mansion spray people with champagne throw midgets in a swimming pool um i think leave the mansion in a pretty despicable state and then obviously he went on cnbc

and defended himself and said that it was all good fun uh it was harmed list that the midgets weren't actually there was sort of paid entertainment they were friends of his family and louis bacon um eventually fired him and i think put out a statement which was sort of ridiculous as something like his behavior was not consistent with the personal views of the firm and it was just one of these great you know um moments where it all kind of it it it was all um what we think about these guys and as i say they worked very hard to be anything but that and it became uh incredibly public and it was very foolish of him, I think, to go on CNBC and make a very limp case in his defense. It was actual Wolf of Wall Street, right? I think that's how it was billed at the time.

You know, what's ironic about you choosing that story, Ed, is that one of the best stories of 2015 was his boss, Louis Bacon's unbelievable brawl with his neighbor out in. I think it was like the Bahamas, Peter Nygaard. And it was, oh, man, their fight was awful. You guys remember this? They accuse each other of murder, being in the Ku Klux Klan, dealing drugs. Louis Bacon and his neighbor really went after each other. I missed that story. And wasn't it all because one was having parties after midnight? It was indeed over parties, basically.

The other interesting thing about this story is it's also kind of a story of about modern media and social media, because it was all over Instagram. Right. So there probably is a time when they could have had this party and then just paid the owner of the house. house, a cleanup fee and maybe some extra fee, and that would have been it. Yeah. But the fact that all these people came to the party and posted about it on social media, uh, and so that those images live forever really makes, um, really makes it hard for these stories to.

I remember the hashtag sprayathon, hashtag sprayathon, which apparently is a thing, right? Who knew? But apparently all these guys were out in the house. Right, doing a sprayathon. And it was this kind of this great disconnect between the behavior of the people there, or apparent behavior with the people there, and what they were doing it for, which was apparently to raise money for, I think was it, an animal shelter, like a lost dog shelter or something? And yet they were obviously doing things that were seen as overly debauched even by their

employer standards. It was a rental house, too, I believe. Didn't you rent the house? It was. And I think the sort of the alternate version of the story, the one that Mr. Barner came out was that the owner of the house was just trying to shake him down for more money. And the person who rented in the house that asked for like $20,000 in cash up front and was this kind of dodgy guy.

and had all these other things going on. I think it did come out that the guy who rented in the house had some problems of his own. But anyway, it was just one of these great stories in the middle of the summer when everything is normally quite quiet and flat. And it sort of brightened up my July. And none of us were invited is the worst part. That is the real worst part.

Speak for yourself. Do you think part of the reason why that story took off was, look, in the middle of a campaign season, you know, Wall Street, vilified by more than one campaign. candidate and you know just the midget throwing yeah it's almost like a cliche it's almost like could this really be true wow it is actually true i believe the the official name of this word is dwarf tossing not midget throwing i just want just for the record for the historians well traditionally this kind of debauchery takes place at market tops right and everyone just

is so so flush with cash that they decide to spend it on um rented midgets or dwarves or whatever term we choose. Well, what was the date? Because the bond market did peak on July 8th. So maybe we could go back to, maybe that was, in fact, the bottom of 10-year yields. That would be a great one. This was July 7th.

Wow. He got fired on the 7th. I think the party was the weekend before. Wow. So it's close. Yilder than. But why in the political climate that prevailed for much of this year, and really the post-month?

financial crisis landscape. Why would you give your foes something like this to grab hold of? Yeah. I don't get it. That is a, that's the huge blunder. All right. Max, let's stay on the Wall Street theme. And let's talk to you. What was your favorite story of 2016? Businessweek does this is a good thing called the Envillist where everyone has to pick an article by someone outside of Bloomberg, which is good because, you know, if you flatter your colleagues too much, you seem as a suck up. So I pick some stories outside of Bloomberg that I admired very much. One of them was about something that I just, I don't think I even really knew existed before private prisons. Mother Jones did this four-month investigation into private prisons that was so

good that basically the Department of Justice within a few weeks afterwards was like, yeah, we're not going to use private prisons any longer. And the stock, plummeted. And the amazing thing for me, besides the fact that the story was just an incredible story, is that it had all this effect. But on the other hand, Trump won the election, of course, the stock went right back up to where it was before for the Mother Jones investigation and private prisons came out. Yeah, Joe, I remember we wrote that story, right? Like the day after Trump's win, we wrote that private prison stocks were surging and the idea was maybe the justice his department was going to back down on all of this.

It's incredible. I wonder what the writer, his name is Shane Bauer. I wonder what he thinks. He spent, what he did is he got a job in a private prison run by CCA. It's got their corrections corporate America. Although actually they just, they just changed their name to a much. It has like, it's called like civics now or something. It's gotten very charming.

Does it have an X in there? I probably. It has very benign sending name. So, you know, afterwards the Department of Justice, the Inspector General report came out with a report that basically agreed with this guy's investigation. He got a job in one of these prisons, and it's a dark. I really recommend everyone reads it. Very, very, very depressing. It sounds like something from the wire.

It's a really, really bleak portrait of how untrained these guards are. And, you know, I assume the stock market pop because Trump is going to reverse that decision and they're going to go back to it. Yeah, those stocks really went nuts the day after the election.

On the other hand, I just have to say, 2016 was such a good year for business journalism. I want to give a quick shout out to a couple of other things that I really loved. So because I'm a classy guy, surrounded by English people, I want to mention the London Review of Books had a beautiful, beautiful piece about Satoshi, and it was by a guy named Andrew O'Hagan. The Bitcoin Founder? Although the question is, what was this guy, the Bitcoin founder? It's like the size of a novel. It's like 40,000 words. I think it must have taken up all of the LRB that week. Also, a beautiful, beautiful story that's similar to that first one,

a little bit dissatisfying because you get to the end of this monster, monster piece, and you're not quite sure which way is up. But that's, I think that's sort of an accurate. It's only, you know, no one knows which way is up in Bitcoin anyway. True. I'm going to say, my former New York observer colleague Gabe Sherman just went bonkers this year writing about Fox News. I mean, basically single-handedly costs the top man his job. That's like a good example of someone who just like owned a story for a long time and then just like went to town and just totally dominated it. And unless you had been following Fox News as a beat for years, you could never have done what he did. What's cool for me as a journalist is that Gabe wrote a book about Fox News a couple years ago

that said that Roger Ailes was basically creepy with women. But then the thing is, nothing happened. The book sort of disappeared and he stayed on the beat for years after the book came out, which, you know, when I write a story, if I've only spent a couple weeks on it and it doesn't do well, I want to like, I want to die. I want to crawl up under my bed and not work ever, ever again. Did he get sued over that, didn't he? Or am I thinking of something else? I don't, I don't think Gabe got sued, no.

Okay, well, we've had two kind of wall streety politics-y things. Why don't we go over, let's do Mike and let's happen maybe, maybe bring us a market story. I don't know. Mike, what do you have for us? Well, this one's a little bit out of left field. And Max is going to make me feel like a suck-up here for actually choosing a Bloomberg Businessweek story. But it really was my favorite story of the year by Matthew Campbell and Kit Chalel. It was about a Goldman Sachs trader in Libya.

He went to Tripoli. And it was right when sort of Libya's markets were opening up. And the story, if I were to pick one story of the year that would sort of you could make a feature film out of, this would be it. And it starts off describing like, you know, what allows you. place Libya is for a banker to do business. You know, there's not many five-star hotels, not many gourmet restaurants. But there is a $60 billion sovereign wealth fund. And this trader Yousef Kabaj cozied up to the sovereign wealth fund and was a good salesman. The story describes him as Goldman's basically their biggest rainmaker. He got the sovereign wealth fund

to invest in a lot of very risky equity derivatives, synthetic equity derivatives in positions in banks. And the timing was really unfortunate. It was right before the financial crisis. And very quickly, these positions just went south and he ended up losing, the sovereign wealth fund ended up losing about $1.2 billion. And this guy basically had to flee for his life out of Tripoli. And the reason I think this year it's kind of interesting is because it, this story came out at the same time as a big discussion in the U.S. about the fiduciary standard. You know, should you hold brokers accountable, obviously for mom and pop retirees? And this case went to court this year. Actually, Goldman won the case. And, you know, the argument was

should a $60 billion sovereign wealth fund, you know, shouldn't they be sophisticated enough to know, what they're dealing with. They claim that Goldman had sort of led them astray with these investments. So a fascinating story. I encourage everyone to Google it, and hopefully it will be a motion picture someday if there's anyone from Hollywood listening. So Goldman in the end, they didn't get in trouble for it, right? Yeah, they were cleared. Yeah, they won the case. I mean, you know, it dragged on for years. Obviously, Gaddafi was ousted and then that complicated things. But the verdict came, I believe it was in the fall around October, and Goldman actually prevailed.

So fascinating. You know what I love about stories like this is when we think of trading in the year 2016 or 2017, you just think of someone behind a terminal, looking at lots of screens with numbers blinking green or red, looking at charts and lines on charts and going through spreadsheets. but any story that involves legwork and having to say, hey, here's a huge pile of money somewhere. It's in Libya, and I'm going to get on a plane and try to get some of it. And any, you know, that's sort of real as a good reminder that there's in finance, there's still this sort of, you know, well, literal frontier market, but sort of Wild West frontier aspect to it, that if you have the sort of Khutzpah to get on a plane and try and get some of it, that that's a, you can.

didn't make money that way. Yeah, Matt Levine wrote a column about it that was pretty interesting, basically saying the sort of the salesmanship has been sucked out of Wall Street because of computerized, automated trading. And here's an example of a good salesman. For better or worse, you know, and also what's fascinating to me is this guy went from being considered, you know, Goldman's top rainmaker. So when everything went south, he was sort of, you know, the biggest goat in the Goldman, you know. And it's, it's interesting. how quickly your fortunes can change on Wall Street. You know, one day you're at the top, and then something goes wrong, and you're quickly

find your way on the bottom. I wonder what the hero or anti-hero of that story would make of the hotel scene in Tripoli right now. I mean, that was back when Libya had a government. Right, right, right. So probably as rough as it is than significantly rougher today. Yeah, exactly. No, arguably, there could be a few more opportunities.

That's a good point. I don't know. Golden will have to send an army over to investigate. We'll see. All right. Megan Murphy, you had probably the most important beat of 2016 as a leader of Bloomberg's politics coverage. Obviously, the 2016 election of being the defining story of the year. So as you look back at 2016, what was your favorite story? I have to say this just because I'm on with Joe and Tracy that I have picked out a market's theme. Thank you. Yay.

This is probably like our first one. So for me, it was really the Mexican peso because here's why, you know, when people, as the politics editor of this cycle, I have to admit that people would come to me with all sorts of crab, you know, oh, we're seeing a reaction in, you know, various different esoteric corners of the market as the sort of Trump and Clinton punch off sort of lumbered along. And we have to be, you know, we would always say to people that, you know, even as late as the summer, we weren't really seeing that much impact in the market. We felt that markets were very late and sort of thinking about a Trump presidency and pricing in the reality of this,

and that market seemed relatively calm. And so I have to admit that we would constantly sort of bat back these. I think Tracy and I were probably some of the people that came to us. It's random stories. But the one thing that was, sorry, Megan. The one thing that was actually real was the Mexican peso. And just that sort of with 80 percent, you know, of Mexican, you know, exports going into the U.S. And watching that currency and watching how much I went back this morning and actually was looking back at some of the moments. So I'm talking moments when sort of Trump's groping tape gets released. It's like Mexican Pesos Strengthens.

And there's all these Bloomberg headlines that's like Mexican Pesso strengthens as groping video is released. And it was fascinating to me because, you know, I did the election night coverage. And on the night, you know, I think the peso fell, what was it, 12 percent, 19 percent. And just watching, you know, watching that. And again, it was almost, you know, it became such a barometer and such a fun. I hate to say that, a very fun indicator of where we were going after the debates. And every little moment in the Trump campaign when I think about it and became a running joke on my desk is, where's the Mexican peso gone? There's two things I really like about the fact that the peso became the ultimate barometer for how the election was going.

One, obviously, I just amused at all these politics reporters having to follow a currency. But more importantly, not only politics reporters having to follow a currency, but learning that when the Mexican peso goes down, the line on the chart is going up, which must have blown a bunch of people's minds. Because, of course, the convention and currencies is that in most cases, there are three exceptions. The dollar comes first, so it's U.S.D. MXN. which means that the traditional way you characterize that is to show the dollar rallying against the peso. So I'm so happy that all these politics reporters that have never thought about this learned an important aspect of currency quoting conventions because of this election. And some were very skeptical.

Some were very skeptical. Some were very skeptical. There's also a bit of irony in that that weaker currency was probably a really a good thing for Mexico's economy ultimately. How many Americans are checking out Cabo now for spring break because it's so cheap? Right. Mexico's manufacturing competitiveness having increased because the currency plunged on Trump's win is the ultimate irony. And these were very, very sophisticated views. I visited our colleagues in our Mexico City Bureau in August. And, you know, almost without question, the economists, the officials, the investors that we met, they all knew far more about what had trained. inspired in the campaign that day than I did.

I remember going to breakfast at an investment bank at 7 o'clock. They'd all read 538. They'd all read the Daily 202. They were all set for the day. I love that. Well, I guess that, I mean, that gets to one of the interesting things that I was thinking when we were watching the peso is like, I get how it became a barometer for the election outcome.

But on the other hand, there's, it was kind of weird. that people just settled on this one asset as the thing that they were going to trade the election with, right? Because you could have chosen all sorts of things. You could have chosen, you know, the betting market, for instance, as a more direct thing. Or bank stocks or drug stocks or anything. Well, the Mexican peso is the most liquid, most actively traded emerging market currency. So it kind of becomes a proxy for emerging market. And look, the other country that was in the crosshairs of Donald Trump, China, is not a lot

you can do with that market. Good point. One other point that I want to make about this, and this speaks exactly to what Tracy was saying, is in markets, you can get to a point where the underlying reality is not that important. And what happens is, you know, Keynes talked about this in his concept of the beauty contest, which I think we've talked about before on this podcast, which is that markets are not really about figuring out

who is the most beautiful person in the beauty contest, but in trying to figure out who the people you're competing against, trading against, who they think will be the most beautiful person in the contest. And then there's endless layers of that. So everybody else knows that that's how everyone is playing the game. So at some point you settle on this idea that the Mexican, and peso is the proxy for the election. And even if there's not necessarily any particular logic to it as being the best, the fact that we've all settled on it as the proxy makes it a reality,

nonetheless. And in my view, that's when markets get at their peak interestingness, when they sort of become almost purely expressions of group psychology and get further and further divorced from underlying reality. So I love this call, Megan. Great choice. Thanks. All right, Dan Moss, what was your favorite story of 2016? We're going to go to Japan and a more economic landscape. So on July 21, two of our colleagues in Tokyo published a story citing people familiar with the discussions as saying that an increasing number of BOJ insiders are concerned about the sustainability of what was then the monetary policy framework in Japan, which was the Corrota, throw everything at the kitchen sink,

QE as far as the eye can see, just keep hitting it and hitting it and hitting it in the hopes that that inflation target can get up to 2%. What our reporters were hearing was, whoa, inside the building, there's increasing concern about, look, where are we going here? And sure enough, a week later, when the BOJ was expected to do a large easing, they announced a policy review. Things were going to be on hold for a couple of months. They were going to think about it over the summer and they were going to come back. And when they came back, what they had was a whole new framework. They were instead going to target various points on the yield curve rather than a quantitative amount of money. Big shift. Dan, is it unusual to get that sort of, you know,

inside the palace halls type of gossip from the BOJ? And also, is it a unusual situation in the United States where every member of the Fed goes off on their own little speaking tour between events? You know, and which sort of approach do you think makes more sense? Well, let's take the second one first. There are quite a lot. a large number of members of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee who make speeches in various parts of the country. They just tend not to make the headlines. They tend to be more cautious than what they say. And in some of Corota's biggest decisions, the votes were split, and it was really only his vote that carried the day. So, you know, it's not a monolithic thing.

They are in various parts of the country making speeches, but for some reason they tend not to resonate outside Japan. But the dissension is real and it's there. Now, the flip side of your question was, is it a problem that there's too many Fed officials speaking in too many places saying too many different things? The trick there, and we wrestle with this daily, is trying to figure out which officials matter the most at any one given point in the cycle. No names. But for example, if there's someone who's a chronic dissenter, known as a hard money person with a track record of being predisposed against further easing, it's important to take that into account when understanding what that person says.

And the markets do struggle with that, I think, sometimes to... Yeah, and I can understand that. So, Dan, I love that you chose this story because I think a lot of people, maybe not forget, but this doesn't get as much attention as it should. The Bank of Japan was, of course, at the forefront of easy monetary policy and experimental monetary policy. And the fact that they kind of started rethinking that strategy this year speaks to the rest of the world and really the efficacy of things like quantitative easing and of things like negative interest rates, right? You're absolutely right. And privately, officials will tell you, yeah, look, we need.

know we're a laboratory. We're not that proud of it, but we were out there first. And the things that Japan has been wrestling with, demographic change, a burst property bubble, these are things that are no longer just a Japanese issue. The big difference is, while Japan has a shrinking labor market and a shrinking population, there is not a robust embrace of immigration. I also, I agree with Tracy that that is a great story because, yeah, as, as Tracy put it, we're seeing a lot of these same rethinks throughout the world this year. The strategy of buy a bunch of stuff and set an inflation target is arguably worked or has been mediocre at best or is maybe just worked a little bit, not as strong as people

thought. Great story that we'll keep watching. All right. Well, I want to thank all you guys for giving your. Favorite stories of 2016, fantastic list. Ed Hammond, our Deals Reporter. Thank you. Thank you.

Mike Regan, Markets Maven. Thank you. Max Abelson, great stories from showing some great range on that and giving some shout-outs to some non-bloomerg folk. Thank you. Megan Murphy, loved your call. Thank you. And Dan Moss.

Thanks a lot. Great to be here. Okay, Joe. Well, that was our special Heinrich. insight episode, I guess. I mean, in all seriousness, I really love talking about the stories that our fellow journalists loved this year or found interesting or important. It's good to get a range from different perspectives, right? Not just markets people. Totally. I loved, I had totally forgotten about the sprayathon party because in a year, which so much huge earth-moving

events happened, it's easy to have forgotten about a party that got plastered all over Instagram with a silly hashtag, but maybe in retrospect that will have been the most important story of the year. Right, because of the market link. But, I mean, you brought up the point about social media, and I think probably for almost all of the stories that we just spoke about, there is a social media angle. And we've been talking about this on the podcast. podcast a lot, but like the degree to which social media has changed the landscape of everything,

from politics to economics, to markets, to the way finance works, to the possibility of some hedge fund guy getting his party outed much faster than he would otherwise. It's just phenomenal. Yeah, I'm actually of the view that for as much as we talk about social media, and we've talked about a lot on this podcast and people talk about it all the time. We arguably don't talk about social media enough overall in this world because I think the ramifications on every aspect of our life of everyone being able to communicate with each other and have their opinion on everything, maybe even a bigger deal than we realize. So, I think that's very important. We'll do more social media podcasts in 2017. All right. This has been another edition of the

Godlods podcast. Thank you so much to our listeners who joined us in 2016. We'll be back with another fresh slate of episodes in 2017. I'm Joe Wisenthaw. You can follow me on Twitter at the stalwart. And I'm Tracy Allaway. I'm on Twitter at Tracy Allo. Thanks for listening. I'm June Grasso, inviting you to join me for the Bloomberg Law podcast. Every weekday, we help you make sense of the legal stories that shape the nation and the world. Listen for complete analysis of the biggest court cases, the latest actions from Congress and regulators, and the legal moves driving the markets, from corporate law to constitutional law and from state courts to the Supreme Court. At Bloomberg Law, we go beyond the day's headlines. We speak with top

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