Odd Lots - A Trip to Alaska With San Fran Fed President Mary Daly

Episode Date: October 17, 2025

Earlier this year, we traveled along with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on a trip to Alaska. You may remember the episodes we did with Mary at the time, as well as business and other leaders i...n the state. But we also had the chance to sit in with Mary while she talked with her contacts on the ground. On this special episode, you'll hear some of those discussions and get a sense of exactly what happens when a regional Fed president goes out and learns from the community. You'll hear from officials at the Port of Anchorage dealing with the new trade landscape, a company that makes steel tubing for the oil industry coming to grips with tariffs, and from managers involved at the airport, to get a sense of how the Alaskan economy works and the distinct pressures they're facing right now.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:02 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Seconds away, the question is not if they'll cut interest rates. The question is by how much? The answer to your question, John, is a quarter percentage point cut as expected, but Fed officials also see two more cuts this year in October and December. It's Wednesday, September 17th, the Federal Open Market Committee has just wrapped up their most recent meeting in Washington, D.C., and after two days of analyzing and debilings, and debating and forecasting, the committee voted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Starting point is 00:00:37 I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up. Job gains have slowed. Yeah, it's the first time the Fed has cut in over a year, move coming after months of debate. And on the one hand, the labor market is slowing. But on the other hand, we're still trying to figure out what the impact of the tariffs is. on prices. And consumer spending is still going strong. Right. You could make a convincing case for deeper cuts, but you could also make a case for even raising benchmark rates at this point. And we don't
Starting point is 00:01:13 tend to get a lot of these types of Fed meetings where the outcome is, you know, so debatable. So we have to ask, how did the central bank actually make the decision to cut? To do that, let's back up six weeks to the beginning of August and head north. In fact, we have to, we have to. are going 3,000 miles north. I added to my collection of flies for fly fishing yesterday. I am slightly obsessed with fishing lores. I don't even fish. I don't know why I just like to fish.
Starting point is 00:01:49 That's Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. So here's why I get these flies. I go to places all over that have fly fishing, and then I buy a fly that's specific to their area to remind you. It's sort of geeky, but it reminds me that. everybody fishes, but that you have to have a local knowledge to fish well. Yeah, you have to have like the fly that's in season for that particular location. And it kind of is why you go to the places to visit to learn more about the economy.
Starting point is 00:02:18 You sort of have to, you can understand it, but you don't know it until you have the locality so you don't do it well. Daly oversees the 12th district of the Fed. It's the largest of the districts and includes the nine most western U.S. states plus the most northern, the last frontier, the great land, the sourdough state. I am talking about Alaska, obviously. In early August, Mary Daly visited Anchorage, the largest city and biggest port in Alaska. It was actually her third visit to the state this year, and she's on a mission of sorts. An expedition?
Starting point is 00:02:50 Sure. She's on a northern expedition to try to find answers to the questions that everyone, all Fed officials, everyone else, are trying to constantly puzzle out right now. What is going on with the U.S. economy? Where is it headed? I've heard that everywhere we've gone, that the city's under so much pressure. And it's hard to, what is your diagnosis about how this happened? So what was she seeing? And how did it actually inform the Fed's decision to cut rates a month later?
Starting point is 00:03:15 On the special edition of the All Thoughts podcast, we are going to follow along as daily tours her district, speaking to local business leaders, like a factory that makes parts for the oil industry. And the airport. And the port itself to try to get a closer look at the giant logistics hub. that is the city of Anchorage. You know, every town in the world, I think, probably likes to describe its residents as, quote, scrappy, unquote. But this really is like the first place I've been where I think that might actually be true. People in Alaska really do seem scrappy. They have to be to get along up here.
Starting point is 00:03:59 We really are on the edge of this vast wilderness. In fact, one thing we learned is that people up here love to compare the size of their state to how many Texas is it would fit in. Which, to be fair, Texans love to do that stuff as well. Yeah, the answer is two and a half, by the way. Alaska is the size of two and a half Texases. Okay, so everyone knows Alaska is big, but until you visit, it's hard to really appreciate just how big. The only way to get from Anchorage, which is the largest city, to Juneau, which is the capital, is a two-hour plane ride. And if you want to haul supplies from a place like Fairbanks, which is in the interior, to the oil.
Starting point is 00:04:40 fields on the north slope. That is a 10-hour drive on what is mostly a dirt road with one gas station on the way. It's really isolated. There's not even a railroad that takes you to the lower 48 or even to Canada. And there are mountains that basically cut off huge sections of the state from each other. But as we learned during our visit, Alaska is still dealing with all the same issues that the rest of the U.S. faces. So things like inflation, unemployment, tariffs, housing shortages, logistical snarl. That's why Mary is here. I mean, to try to get a handle on the broader U.S. economy by looking at a place that at least right now is sort of ground zero for a lot of these trends. Is to collect information.
Starting point is 00:05:22 So we collect information not only on the wide array of data that are available. And then we have history and models. We have all of those things. And then we have conversations. Today, Mary, is the guest of honor at the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation's annual gathering. The Denina Convention Center downtown is over. Overflowing with more than 1,500 local business owners, politicians, civic leaders, they're here to mingle, network, talk shop, and hear Mary's thoughts on where she thinks the economy stands.
Starting point is 00:05:50 As well as counting the cranes as a future-looking variable, it's so important. So I just want to thank everybody who's ever answered the beige book, who's ever met with us. If you like the beige book, we'll send you another one. It used to be beige, by the way. So this is the fact-finding portion of the expedition, because, yes, Mary is giving a speech about what she's seeing in the economy, but she's also learning from the local businesses who are listening to her. And what I've been hearing is that the uncertainty is the word of the day. I guess it was on the bingo card. And uncertainty makes it harder for firms and households to know what they're doing
Starting point is 00:06:24 next, which makes it harder for us as policymakers, Federal Reserve policymakers, to know exactly how the economy will evolve. Mary isn't a voting member of the committee this year, but as a reserve bank president, she still participates in all the FOMC meetings, where she offers her own assessments and opinions based on what she's seeing in the economy of the 12th district right now. And so her views still do help shape the committee's decision. All the states in my district on a regular basis, as are my teams. And the reason for that is so that we can understand firsthand what you are in particularly thinking about, what you see is your opportunities, what you see as your challenges,
Starting point is 00:07:02 but also how do you see the economy today? There's an interesting statistic we just heard that people feel decently, pretty good, about their own situation, but pessimistic about the economy. We need to understand why. What are you seeing as you look out? Businesses are making decisions today about what they're going to do at the end of the year. We need to know what those are. We need to know how households are feeling.
Starting point is 00:07:24 Are they feeling strapped? Are they feeling like they have enough disposable income? And the data alone, looking at the published data, all the microdata, you could look at 100 series, and you would never have the complete picture. I'm sure we've all heard the phrase data dependent and the Fed leans heavily on the volumes and volumes of economic statistics that get released every month when making its decisions. But sometimes you can augment that data with things you observe on the ground. Right. So just a few days before the Alaska trip, we got a jobs report that heavily revised down the employment numbers from the earlier months. It was a big surprise, huge moment for the markets, but it didn't really surprise Mary.
Starting point is 00:08:08 And what was interesting about the jobs report on Friday is it better matched in the direction of change, not in the magnitude, it better matched what I've been hearing. And so a disciplining device for data that you don't know if they're really accurate is what you hear from people. Because people do not tell you, I feel really, really comfortable getting a job only to find out that the job market report is bad. What they will tell you is, boy, it looks really worrisome out there. And then you get a jobs report that doesn't look like the rapid report. job growth. That was the thing that was out of whack. The rapid job growth from the month before is what I said, well, really? That's not what I'm hearing. What's the gap? And we spent a lot of time digging in and unpacking that. But then when the jobs market report got revised, I was like, okay, that makes more sense. But of course, jobs aren't the only thing the Fed cares about. Its mandate is low unemployment and stable inflation. And these things seem to be operating at cross currents right now. Inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for a while, and the concern is that with tariffs coming in from the Trump administration, prices are just going to go up further.
Starting point is 00:09:16 So to understand the risk here, we're following Mary to the offices of Northern Solutions. It's an Alaskan company which makes components and parts for the oil industry, which is obviously big business in the state. Yeah, all the pipes and casings and spools and valves and things like that. And as you can imagine, steel is a pretty key input for a lot of these products. Since June, there's been a whopping 50% tariff on steel and aluminum coming from abroad. So if we compare 21 to today, it's cheaper. If we compare today to 23, 24, yeah, it's small. And companies like Northern Solutions are trying to figure out just how to navigate all these new trade restrictions.
Starting point is 00:10:02 It's not as easy as just say switching to a U.S. supplier. But if you do that and you can't get the continuity, well then that's it cost to you that not the effect there. So it's really helpful for us to think about when we try to think about the effects of tariffs, or the effects of changes on any administration on your business. Absolutely, I mean, the tariffs, so the tariffs balanced it. So I can go to a U.S. mill, I can go to a foreign mill, and I'm going to pay the same price now with that tariff. But it's the industry that mills here to and the lead time of that steel.
Starting point is 00:10:38 That's the problem. Honestly, we have a lot of small steel mills here in this country, a lot of small ones. They're very, very specific to a certain industry. In other words, all steel isn't equal. So there's mills all around the world, steel mills all around the world. I can't use them all because of that, because of their MTRs. Not country of origin, just how well they do it. Okay.
Starting point is 00:11:03 So we have a lot of steel that comes. into the U.S. tubing that comes from brought in as green tube that we heat treated in the U.S. so that MTR is generated from a U.S. heat treat facility and now it's 51% American and then you have going all the stuff on it. I see. So when we talk about metals that I can use, they're all over the place, but I can't use them all. This is actually a really good example of the kind of information that makes Mary's visit so important.
Starting point is 00:11:31 It's the kind of thing that you can't really learn from. and economic data release. I'm going to use that. One of the things that, just to show you how you can use things I've learned, is that if you think about how likely we'll shift all of our production from the United States or how likely is a global market on steel to be able to, if we put it all back today, I mean, you've taught me two things already, that not everybody is geared to your industry,
Starting point is 00:11:57 and you can have to have a specific, you know, heat strategy in order to even use the material. Yep. They have to be a certain quality of it. So it just means that you don't have the open marketplace that I think many people would think you have. Right. So they would just look at the number of manufacturers and say, oh, look, you could do all of this, but you can't. There's barriers. There are barriers.
Starting point is 00:12:15 Okay. Very helpful. You know, there's another big Alaskan business that's grappling with tariffs, and that is the port. Next stop, the Port of Alaska. Demand for the ships in the war, so they'll decommissioned. Yeah. Although I'll say that's in particular, so they have three ships that they rotate between. And they have...
Starting point is 00:12:52 The port of Alaska, used to be called the port of Anchorage, by the way. Very cool. It's a deep water port. The tides here are crazy. Here's a Jim Jager, the port's acting director, explaining what they're having to deal with. So, Port of Alaska has a variety of issues that we're not unique, except that we're unique in the combination of issues we have. So what are our challenges? For instance, we have a pretty fast current.
Starting point is 00:13:18 We have a 30-foot tide falls. So between low tide and high tide. 30 foot. And our maximum tide flux between the lowest tide of the season and the highest tide, it's 40 feet. I heard it's the second biggest tide flux in the world. Yeah, it's actually depending on, it's probably fifth or six. But in places where people actually do commerce, we're number two. So because of the harsh growing conditions and the short summer season in Alaska,
Starting point is 00:13:43 almost all of the state's fresh food has to be imported. And the vast majority of that food arrives by boat from West. coast piers, mostly Seattle and Tacoma. And with only four ships coming in per week, Alaska's supply lines are stretched very tight. And Mary has actually experienced the downside of those stretched supply lines before. Here she is talking with Jim about it. Running out of things, we ran out of this. When I was here in May, the hotel ran out of coffee because they said the supplier hadn't gotten it in and they wouldn't get it until. In May, we had, we lost a ship because of a mechanical.
Starting point is 00:14:20 So if your timing was correct, your coffee may have been coming up. Yeah, I went down for coffee and she said, we don't have any coffee for so much. That actually demonstrates how skinny are supply lines. Yeah, no, that's why I wanted to talk about it. I'm still, I'm not traumatized by my lack of coffee. But I just was surprised at how, I'm surprised at how fragile or vulnerable.
Starting point is 00:14:43 We have six to ten days worth of food in the state. So we import, depending on who's number. you believe between 94 and 96% of the food consumed in Alaska is imported. Figure we're handling three quarters of that. So, you know, if that's coming in, we have four scheduled container ships a week, two on Sundays, two on Tuesdays. If we lose a ship, you know, that's 25% of the food for the next week. And it is very realistic that if you walk into the Fred Meyer grocery store and you go,
Starting point is 00:15:13 huh, why is there no salad? You know, that's why. And, you know, it's an interesting take. If you go down to the lower 48 and say go to Home Depot, Home Depot's lower 48 stores have a restock where they can restock an entire store in 32 hours. So if you're on the Gulf Coast and they have a hurricane, they completely sell the store out. They're set up so that they can come in 32 hours later. They're totally restocked.
Starting point is 00:15:42 Okay, now apply that model to Alaska, where we have no warehousing. 32 hours it means if we have an earthquake or something happens here and they empty out the store they place the order 32 hours to get it to home up on the dock there's then a 66.5 hour float up to anchorage and that's assuming you're on the right cycle and you don't have to wait a couple of days till the next ship leaves so it gets up here in 66 and a half hours and then it's got to make it from anchorage to wherever the final destination is so if you're in mid-term town Anchorage, well, you'll be there this afternoon. If it's in Fairbanks, well, that's another day. So suddenly your 32-hour restock, you know, could be six, seven days. Can I ask a dumb question, but why don't you build some warehousing capacity? That was my question. I don't think it's dumb. I was going to ask you. So our basic problem is that we have a very small population spread out over a
Starting point is 00:16:41 huge area. You know, three-quarters of a million people in the entire state, so basically a city, right? And our state is 20-half times the size of Texas. But if you really want to see it, go to Bush, Alaska. That's John Daly, an engineer who is leading a big modernization effort at the port. So go to these remote communities, and then you'll really see the effect of what you're talking about. It's pronounced. If they get, some of these communities only get three or four barges a year. Basically, milk is hugely expensive.
Starting point is 00:17:13 Anything fresh is very expensive. If you go to, you know, I've worked. living here, I've worked in a lot of remote places we're talking, Codiak or St. Paul Island or Bethel or something. Then you really see the end of the supply chain and it's super sensitive in those locations. So it's very, it can be vulnerable here, but it's sort of fragile over there. Much more vulnerable. And we're kind of a hub. It's a hub and spoke system, so we're a hub that helps supply those areas. And if we're sensitive, they're 10 times. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. No, just to make things even more complicated, the port also
Starting point is 00:17:46 has tariffs to contend with. As the primary import hub from the entire state, you can imagine that the port thinks about this issue quite a bit. So not only could tariffs impact trade, all those ships going in and out of the harbor, stopping to refuel, so forth, but they could get the first look at how companies choose to respond to any increase in costs. Also, it's just as likely to push up the price of goods. Oh, yeah. So they're going to face tariffs on goods, but they're also going going to face port fees on goods. And so then it's just more expensive. It gets worse, though, because we We have the death spiral. So we raise our tariffs.
Starting point is 00:18:20 And then right now, most of the cargoes coming in are deep water vessels. But if we raise our tariffs per ton enough, at some point, some folks who are shipping things that are non-time sensitive, new cars. You know, we'll go, you know, for the tariff, I'm just going to bring it up on a barge into Whittier. And I'll save the tariff.
Starting point is 00:18:42 And then what happens is that then reduces our overall tonnage, we still have to make our debt payment, so we now have to increase our tariffs more. So we're getting into the spiral. Food prices just went up even more. And oh, by the way, maybe you're not paying the tariff on your truck, but you are going to get it 10 days later than you thought you were.
Starting point is 00:19:02 So you're getting worse cargo service also. So the impact on Alaskans is they're paying more for certain things like food, and everything else is the cargo service is less good. Well, the normal way that all this, any kind of extra tax ships out is you either wait longer or you pay more. That's just how it works. I mean, in any of the things, that's why I tried to put an optimistic endpoint on the speech is because you can, I think ultimately, you guys are very enthusiastic about what you're trying to do, but there's the other side of it which can easily demoralize people, right? It just seems like an insurmountable problem when you think of the cost structure here.
Starting point is 00:19:43 But we have no option. No, exactly. So you can either back yourself in a corner with no option or you can just say, well, and be sad, right? Or you can just go forward with purpose. It's sort of common knowledge that it's expensive to live in Alaska. It just costs more to get goods and services up here. And residents understand that's part of the deal.
Starting point is 00:20:03 But there are limits to just how much of a premium Alaskans are willing to pay to live here and just how much businesses can get away with when it comes to pricing. Cheryl Beckham, Director of Finance at the Port of Alaska, talks about this point with Mary. I'm revealing my economist's background, but it just makes sense that the price would be higher here because you have all these additional costs. But you're saying the small communities
Starting point is 00:20:23 think it should be like it is in the lower 48th, so you have to split this difference? So they understand that there's a transportation cost, but what is that margin? Right, okay. If they're willing to accept, right? So as costs go up and fuel goes up and the, you know, the fuel bars,
Starting point is 00:20:38 tankers that bring it, they cost more for. So you're probably always having a little, less margin up here. Right. Yes. Right. So you do. This is the really big question. How much of the extra cost coming from the tariffs is going to be absorbed by the companies themselves, whether it's importers or the transportation businesses or middlemen like the port, and how much of the cost is going to be passed on to consumers, which would basically risk fanning inflation again. And that is a big deal for a state which already has a very high cost of living, precisely because all this stuff needs to be imported and often sent on to really remote locations within the state.
Starting point is 00:21:16 And even if you're not necessarily importing foreign goods, tariffs can still push up the price of what's made domestically. The question that we're grappling with making monetary policy is there's taxes, immigration, deregulation tariffs. And those things have different likely effects, etc. So one of the questions I've been asking people when we meet is, do any of those things, can you see any of those effects immediately affecting your business here? And do you have any sense if they will?
Starting point is 00:21:45 Immediately. Well, the tariff thing has come up in our construction. So we have a lot of big construction coming up, like a couple billion dollars worth of infrastructure. Sorry, is that port specific? Yeah, that's our docket. Okay, right. And most of that is by America
Starting point is 00:22:04 because we're trying to get federal funding and that comes with the territory. So the tariffs are not directly affecting that because theoretically that's on foreign goods. However, it floats the whole, pushes the whole, the whole harbor up. So the price of steel, buy America, steel, buy America, this, by America,
Starting point is 00:22:22 that all goes up. So it has a large effect on that. How much have you seen prices rise maybe from when you were originally planning it? I mean, something rough. No, by one who admit that number, but it's a large number. We started off 10 years ago with something
Starting point is 00:22:40 that was 400, million dollars and we're at $2.5 billion now. Right. The port of Alaska is in the middle of a two and a half billion dollar modernization program. So it's a pretty bad time for the cost of materials to be going up. And there's also the financing costs, right? If interest rates go up because inflation is rising, that also adds to the cost, possibly exponentially. So can I ask a question about from all three of you is, like if you think about the work you do here and the things that are facing Alaska, with all the, you know, just the economy, the changes in policy, interest rates, etc. What's worrying you right now? Well, it worries me is financing our project, our $2,5 billion
Starting point is 00:23:25 project. And we have some state and federal funds. The rest of it is slated for local revenue bonds. Okay. Do you think those will pass? They've given us authority to issue those, but the question is how much can you push into the market?
Starting point is 00:23:46 Once. And it puts our debt load from whatever it is, $50 million we have now up to billions. We have authority for $1.1. It greatly increases our debt load. So that's the biggest.
Starting point is 00:23:59 So our goal is one-third, one-third, one-third. one-third, federal money, one-third, state money, one-third local money. For our next stock, it's going to be roughly $900 million, right? At this point, we have 90% is going to be local, 5% state, 5% federal. If we go forward to finance the 90% that's the local share, after 40 years, 2.2, 28, billion is what we're going to pay back for $900 billion. So, you know, with that, the cost of financing is going to be huge. And what is that going to do to overall cargo rates? Remember,
Starting point is 00:24:45 one of our things is we're trying to maintain a cost-effective cargo system. And boy, when do we get crushed. Speaking of effective cargo systems, a huge chunk of Alaska's imports go through the port, as we've been discussing, but it is not the only logistics hubb in town. Right, to get a complete picture, we've got to check out the airport, which is exactly where Mary is heading next. How much for a plane like that cost? Three million. Yeah. That's a lightly used. 3.8. We have a, we have a handful of those. I'm Susan Alt, I'm the Alaska International Airport System Controller, and we're all glad to have you here today to show off our system.
Starting point is 00:25:42 So I'll go ahead and get going. So what is the Alaska International Airport System, also known as AIS? It is made up of Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, which is the largest passenger airport in the state of Alaska. It's also the fourth busiest cargo airport in the world and the second busiest in the United States. Anchorage's impact is the largest airport.
Starting point is 00:26:08 in Alaska. Passenger activity for fiscal year 25 ended at 4. excuse me 5.4 million passengers served. Air cargo for 2025. We had 3.7 million tons for 2025. And again, as I said, we're number two in the USA and number four in the world with regards to cargo. We support one in seven jobs in the Anchorage area and provide 1.8 billion. and annual economic impact to the state. And you can see on the screen about the direct jobs and wages impact versus the indirect and induced jobs and wages.
Starting point is 00:26:51 So we're pretty significant economic boom for the state of Alaska. Air transport is huge for Alaska, and the Anchorage Airport basically acts like a truck stop for the whole state and really global trade. Fully loaded cargo planes moving stuff from Asia to the Mideast, parts of Europe will stop. here to refuel on their way to the rest of North America. And for Alaskans, it's the main depot for most of the goods they order from elsewhere,
Starting point is 00:27:15 which are sorted in the huge FedEx and UPS hangars before being distributed throughout the state. It's also a commuter hub. Many of the oil workers on the North Slope work in two week on, two week off shifts. They catch a small plane up to the fields where they live in company housing while on the job, and then they return to their families and hometown for the rest of the month. People that is effectively use that as a suburb of the suburban community. How many planes do you have to? Yeah, so this is the iconical Phillips airplane that's going up to the North Slope.
Starting point is 00:27:47 So if you're a slope worker and you were two weeks on, two weeks off, you can live in Kenai, have a nice Alaska lifestyle over there. Hop on a grand aviation plane. He lives up in fair. 35 minutes you're at the door. You walk over the next terminal and get on your North Slope. Like the rest of the country, housing is a major issue. even in a state with, say it with me, Joe, twice the land of Texas.
Starting point is 00:28:10 Yeah, as we've seen over and over, Alaska faces all the issues that the rest of the U.S. does, only at least right now more acutely. There's a variety of other things going on. And if you're already, your infrastructure is already a little vulnerable. Right. Then you can imagine any shock we get in the United States, just in that, I mean, sorry, to the United States, you get it amplified. Yeah. No, that's absolutely true.
Starting point is 00:28:31 And so you kind of a little leading indicator, which helps me make. good decisions when I talk to all of you. Mary is going straight from the airport to the airport, I guess. She's flying to the lower 48, and there's obviously a lot of possible takeaways from the trip. This cost structure of Alaska was something I think we learned the most about today. Just why are the prices so much higher? And where would you ever try to mitigate that? And, of course, the things that are going on like inflation or just changes in how goods are shipped or supply chain challenges,
Starting point is 00:29:06 they're just magnified in Alaska. And I think we also learned, you know, I learned that they happen here first. It really is sort of this canary in the coal mine almost, that when you see it here, you know it's coming elsewhere. It's going to be lower in all likelihood because there's other ways to ensure yourselves, but you're going to see it. We don't know exactly what was discussed at the Fed September meeting, or at least we don't know until the transcript is published in like 2030. But I think you can get a good sense of what a trip like this actually adds. to the conversation when Fed governors are all sitting around the table trying to figure out what to do next. So one of the things that is challenging right now, it was challenging back in the days where we were trying to fight high inflation.
Starting point is 00:29:50 And it's definitely challenging today when you're trying to figure out the real impact of tariffs, not only on growth, but on inflation. As just one example, unpacking what's happening in Alaska and knowing at whatever point how long this is going to take because of the non-fungibility, of steel, the interoperability of some of the supply chain networks, all of those things give me insights that I can then take back to the meeting. And then it's not just us exchanging forecast. I think they're going to be like this long. I think they're going to take this long. It provides evidence, underlying evidence, that you can't find in your statistics.
Starting point is 00:30:27 Because the statistics, the statistics, we just don't know. All we're doing is projecting. But now we have our projections filled out by data and information. And that makes a huge difference when you're trying to make. good policy. That's it for our special Alaska episode. We hope you enjoyed tagging along with us and Mary on the Anchorage Expedition. Joe, what stuck out to you? So many things stuck out to me from that trip. You know, like being in Alaska, it really did feel like the end of the world, didn't it? Like the edge of the empire. Yeah, it definitely felt frontier-like, for sure.
Starting point is 00:31:13 I've been in rural areas before, even more rural, obviously, than an urban area like Anchorage, but I've never just felt distant like I did in Alaska. And so it's very easy to understand why it's a state permanently in a state of sort of supply chain stress. Yeah, that's what really stood out to me as well because when you go to a place like Anchorage, I mean, there are a lot of the same restaurants and chain stores that you would see in any other place in America. The difference is all that stuff has to be transported thousands and thousands of miles to get there. Yeah, no, it's a constant strain, just extraordinary. You know, I knew these things about how far flung everything was, but then, say, going to the airport and seeing how small planes served the just sort of worker commuter system was really eye-opening. Or just the sheer number of people who own planes themselves.
Starting point is 00:32:05 Oh, yeah. Like they have these pontoon planes in the water that in another state would be how people would have their boats in the marina except Alaska, its plans. It's just, it's permanently, it's permanently stretched. Do you think we could go to Hawaii next? That's in the 12th District, right? Let's do it. I'm down. Shall we leave it there?
Starting point is 00:32:25 Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the stalwart. Thank you to Mary Daly and everyone at the San Francisco Fed, including Jen Chamberlain, for letting us come along on their fact-finding journey.
Starting point is 00:32:41 Thank you also to the Port of Alaska, the Alaska, the Alaska International Airport System and Northern Solutions for the tour of their facilities. Thank you to Ashley Ebnet of the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation and a final thank you to all the Alaskans who took the time to talk to us about their state.
Starting point is 00:32:56 Everyone was so friendly. And don't forget, Scrappy. You can follow our producers, Carmen Roderriguez, at Carmen Armand, Dashel Bennett at Dashbot and Kale Brooks at Kail Brooks. For more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash oddlots where we have a daily newsletter
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