Odd Lots - Lots More With Neil Dutta

Episode Date: September 15, 2023

For those who can't get enough Odd Lots, we're now offering you... "Lots More." This new podcast show, appearing on Fridays, will see hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal chatting with some of your favorite Odd Lots guests about the latest breaking news and the biggest themes on their minds in markets, finance and economics. On this inaugural episode, they're joined by Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research to talk inflation, a possible government shutdown, the risk of a Federal Reserve policy error, and just how high bond yields can get. Are we getting a soft-landing or an inflationary boom? And why do some investors find the doom-and-gloom philosophy so appealing?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7 a.m. Eastern. Make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg television, radio, and wherever you get your podcasts. How was future proof? It was awesome. You had quite the interview with Bill Gross. I was listening to it. I mean, I feel like everyone's kind of known that he hates good luck. Yeah.

I kind of love it. Like, I saw a bunch of people talking about like, oh, this crazy old guy. I feel sorry for him. And I was like, I get the sense he's living his best life. He's just like on stage settling old scores because he can, like, go for it. He has nothing to lose. Yeah. I did think it was funny.

He went off on Peter Lynch, though. Like, I've never... Did you hear that bit? No. He, like, made fun of Peter Lynch, too. And it was like, I've never heard anyone take issue with Peter Lynch. I did a deadlift. One, two, three.

Hegemony. Okay, go. Okay. What's the other? Gemini. Barges. This is an after-school special, except... I've decided I'm going to base my entire personality going forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve in the U.S.

Where's the best squid ink pasta? These are the important questions. Is it robots taking over the world? No, I think that like in a couple of years, the AI will do a really good job of making the odd lots podcast. And people are saying, I don't really need to listen to Joe and Tracy anymore. We do have the perfect guest. Well, in the meantime, this is lots more. An odd lot to spin-off.

And we do have the perfect guest. Neil Dutta hanging out with us in studio. Tracy, that was fun out in California, wasn't it? California is lovely. We should live there. No, it was a fun conference. So we were at the Future Proof Conference in Huntington Beach. I think there were 3,000 people there, mostly financial advisors. And we did a live interview with Bill Gross. I love going out to Southern California. It's always fun when you can create controversy and rivalry between two asset managers, bond managers who are like rivals and create drama. We created the drama at the event.

I feel like we didn't actually have to do much to create it. I mean, Bill kind of went off on his own. Yildata, is there any reason to own a bond right now? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, it is fixed income. Okay. But you could get that, but Tracy gets that in her Marcus account. I mean, I just told my parents to buy a bunch of treasury bills because it's the easiest.

Really? Yeah. Why not? I mean, it's just like clipping a 5% return month after month. then, you know. Bill Gross disagrees with you. Well, I'm not saying rates can't go higher, but if you're not a sophisticated investor,

yes, there's plenty of reasons to own, you know, treasury. You know, Bill Gross started his career clipping. He told us this story when we interviewed him that he was hired at Pimco in 1971 and that part of his job was to literally go down to the vault that Pimco had every, I don't know how often he went down there and clip the physical coupons off of paper bonds that they had.

And that was part of his job was like go do that clipping. Well, he's clearly older than we are. Well, he was also talking about how he used to trade on Quotron machines instead of Bloomberg terminals. So yes, absolutely. But it was a fun interview.

But wait, why not just, I'm sorry, I'm hung up about this. Why not just like, okay, yes, I get that you can earn like 5% somewhere, but like you can't you earn like 4% like basically risk free at this, like with no duration or anything? Like four and a half percent in Marcus. In like a, you're right, in like a CD.

Cash, cash, yeah. What's wrong with that? Well, five is more than four. And my parents have no need for the money right now. Okay, all right. And, I mean, they're not trying to trade for the, you know, to get, you know, to actually make money on the bond itself. So.

All right. Well, let's talk. Okay, we don't know. No one knows where rates are going. So we got an inflation, a CPI print this week. You've been saying, Neil, for a while that inflation, we haven't defeated it yet that either we have a recession. And if we don't have a recession, it's going to pick back. up. Is this the first sign of it? Did we sort of like bottom out on the inflation front?

I mean, some of the progress is definitely stalling. I mean, for me, it's just, if you don't believe that there's a recession, it's hard to believe that inflation has been resolved. To me, it's really that that's sort of how I think about it. I know others may disagree, but I think demand is still pretty strong. And you saw that with retail sales today also. Wait, isn't the consensus on CPI that it was mostly gas prices? Because I remember when gas started going up in, I guess it would have been July or early August, Omar Sharif, who's been on this podcast a number of times now, basically said, yeah, and he said, like, this is going to mean CPI coming in in August at like 3.5 or 3.6 percent, ended up at 3.7

year on year, but it seems like it was somewhat expected. Well, I mean, I think for me, what's interesting about this is that when you look at core goods, right, like things, you know, like furniture. and that's actually going back up, excluding cars, right? So I think that's interesting because to me that was sort of the linchpin for a lot of the weaker inflation story that kind of people had going into the year. And that's going away. And I think part of the reason why it's going away is that supplier delivery times are no longer,

I mean, it's taking longer for factories to move product out the door. So the supply chain issue isn't improving. And if that's the case, then I think one area of disinflationary pressure is going. away. And so I think that there's probably some upside to core goods prices between now and the end of the year. There's also some upside to food prices, I think. Joe, I have a pet theory that a lot of the strong consumption is just down to like economic nihilism where people are just like screw it. I don't need to save anymore. I'm just going to spend everything. Go out. Go to restaurants. I mean, if that's true, that's really bad. Because isn't that like the sort of like classic precursor to

hyperinflation? Like people just go out and they're like, oh, I have. have a little cash, so I'm going to go out and buy TVs. I seem to recall reading stories about that before, like, episodes of, like, Russian hyperinflation. I hope you're wrong. I hope that's not what all this conception is about. I think there's a natural limit to how many TVs you can actually go out and buy. But I do think the, like, psychological impulse behind a lot of the spending hasn't necessarily been appreciated by a lot of economists. Let's put it that way. Neil, didn't you write something about savings? Yeah, I mean, I think that to me, there's nothing inherently wrong with the savings rate where it is. I mean, it's certainly lower than it was a few months ago. But if you think

about, you know, the period from, let's say, the early 1980s through 2007, I mean, there was a fairly notable inverse relationship between your assets relative to your income and savings, right? So when assets go up and value the savings rate goes down, which makes sense, right? Because people are looking at rising wealth as sort of a low risk form of income. And so, you know, you feel better about things, you don't need to save as much. The financial crisis period kind of upended that, right? So we went through a nearly decade-long period where the savings rate rose. By the time we got, I mean, even before the pandemic, I think the savings rate was like eight or nine percent. Right? And so there's no reason for that to happen again. And I think that's something that's

not well appreciated by people. And again, talk about this a little more. So I just pulled up the chart on the terminal. And I hadn't really looked at this chart in a while. So we had been, Wait, what's the ticker show? P-I-D-SPS. Oh, I see, I see it. Personal disbays, at least the savings rate is a percentage of disposable income. That's the measure you're looking at. So I hadn't realized January 2020, we were at 9.1 on that.

Right. Today were at 3.5%. So, wait, go back, what does that tell you that 9.1 that we had pre-COVID? There was sort of maybe more caution. Okay. Maybe balance sheet repair. It could have just also been fluky. You know, we had maybe a.

couple of months a week of consumer spending and, you know, before the pandemic. But at any rate, I mean, to me, I think the bigger story is that the trend and the savings rate over that entire period was a function of continued household balance sheet adjustment. All right. So right now, going back to the present tense, what's your, what's the Fed going to do the next few meetings? Pause in September, right? Yeah. I don't think they're going to do anything at least until December, if they do anything. So nothing in November. And then maybe. be a hike in December. Maybe. Yeah. I mean, I think part of me feels now increasingly that they'll just keep pushing back on cuts. Why? Well, I mean, that could be considered like

a de facto tightening. I mean, if the market expects cuts next year and I think the market is still right. Oh, pushing back the cuts. I see. Yeah, yeah. Just basically pushing back against the idea that they're cutting. So they just keep an extended on hold policy. Like, okay. You know, the thing is at this point, I feel like if they're, I mean, because we're talking right or not, you saw the journal article, like, fine-tuning. They're using these words, right? So if you're going to hike, like, what's the point of hiking once more? Right?

So if you're going to hike, it has to be at least a few. You know, like, I mean, it's very rare to see the Fed do, like, an abort, like, mission, right? I mean, maybe in the mid-90s that happened, right? They hiked, and then they kind of just left it there, and they never did anything again. And then the next move was cuts it after the LTCM thing. So that's sort of how I'm thinking about it. But I think the risk to them. doing this is it's happening at potentially a time of cyclical momentum in the economy.

And that to me is what kind of concerns me. You mentioned that there are these, maybe that the momentum on disinflation has stalled. Yes. But like big picture, and look, there's always going to be month to month noise, but big picture, if you just sort of zoom out, it still looks like various measures, CPI, PPI, PCE, quit rates, things like that. It still basically seems like lines are trending down. But what are you doing technical analysis on the economic data?

I mean, it's just, no, no, I'm, what I'm more saying is like, it's just like zoom out and look big picture. Like, yes, like I get things happen month to month, month that we can say like, oh, like strip out gasoline, et cetera. It still looks like most lines, especially, you know, I know like one of the the feces of like persistent inflation is going to be that wage growth and the labor market still robust. But even that's like normalizing. Don't you find it amazing that the folks that are now talking about the quits rate as this sort of magic like wage inflation indicator? During the 2010s, they were the ones that were propping up the prime age employment rate as the best measure for wages. And that number is actually still going up because the labor markets are in fact still tightening. I've always been a quits rate fan anyway.

No, I always have been. But what if the quits rate's going down because people are getting paid more in the jobs that they have? is it more or less likely that someone at UPS is going to quit their job after striking a deal after the union struck a deal with the company? Is it going to be more or less likely that Ford GM, you know, the folks that make Jeep vehicles, are they going to be more or less likely to quit their job in the next couple of months? So I wonder a little bit about that.

I mean, so, but to me, isn't it, it, it's a confidence game, right? I mean, ultimately, and I think that's how policy works too. I mean, this is something that Waller was talking about, is expectations, right? Businesses, I hate to tell you, no longer think there's going to be a recession. And if they think that, then they're going to be more likely to post job openings. They're going to be more likely to hire. So hiring rates and opening rates probably pick up. And that probably means stronger employment.

And so, yes, I agree with you that there has been. improvement in a lot of these metrics that you're pointing to, right? I mean, the quits, but if you had to ask me, are these measures going to be higher or lower than they are right now, I would say higher. And to me, that's, I mean, we'll keep the Fed awake, I think. Well, the other thing that's happening is, you know, you mentioned the UAW strike, and we are getting, like, close to that, sort of, like, triggering. And I guess, I guess from a production perspective, it feels like we could get into, another situation where supply chains start to be affected, which could also maybe start to impact inflation.

It's a negative supply shock, right? I mean, that's one of the way, I mean, I don't think we're anything close to the 70s, obviously. But one of the ways that happened was basically you had these sort of persistent supply shocks. I mean, it was just bad luck. I mean, on top of bad policy. You can get the news whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Amy Morris.

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News Now. And we don't wait an hour to publish breaking news. When news breaks, we'll have an episode up in your podcast feed within minutes. So you're always getting the latest stories and developments. Get the reporting and the context from Bloomberg's 3,000 journalists and analysts we're all over the world. Listen to the latest from Bloomberg News Now on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen. Neil, I posted in our Discord. I think you've hung out in there a couple I posted in their Discord, anyone have any questions for Neil from JG 53? Does a rising long bond yields, like, how far can that go? And at what point does that like really start to impair acid valuations and other aspects?

I think we're pretty, I mean, I think four and three quarters. We're sort of hitting the ceiling here. We're pretty there. I mean, I think the market's kind of figuring it out, but I think we're close. Our market strategist, Jeff DeGreff, you know, he runs this thing called a yield impact model. But basically he looks at the probability that a certain level of. interest rate starts to negatively affect the stock market. And it gets worse, the higher, you know, after four and a half percent.

So we're right there. To me, when I think about equities this year, right, the easy money, I think, has largely been made because the big upturn for stocks was basically pricing out the recession probability. Right? And now, right, so if you think about the market as kind of, or the economy as sort of like four potential scenarios, right? You can have your deflationary bus, which is sort of the classic recession.

you can have stackflation, you can have self-landing, you can have an inflationary boom, right? What you have the most, or what I have the most conviction on is that we won't have recession, right? So now I think the markets have kind of come to that view. And so you have to, if you're thinking about probabilities, okay, so then my odds of a negative growth scenario

have come down. So where do you allocate this now? I mean, is it soft-landing? Is it inflationary boom? And I think the markets are kind of gyrating back and forth between those two scenarios. Where do you land on that? I think we're in an inflationary boom.

Tracy, can I say, I, you know what I think people should pay a little more attention to than they are? No, no, it's not a, it's not a controversial one, actually. The unemployment rate, it ticked up to 3.8% last month, and a lot of people sort of dismissed it based on, oh, it had to do with more people in the labor force. But on the other hand, like, it is the highest now since February 22. too. So it's like the highest in over a year and a half. Like this way I go back to some of these labor market indicators and they're not terrible clearly and we're still adding jobs and initial clean but like, you know, as Neil said, job openings down quit rates. I think maybe I said that down unemployment rate up to 3.8%. Like it seems like something is happening. Sure. But to Neil's point,

if we have entered a period where it seems like recession is firmly off the table, then it feels like that gets reversed pretty quick, especially given that a lot of companies were already kind of focused on being caught flat-footed in an expansionary scenario. We've talked about this, right? Yeah. Like a lot of the survey data, they're talking about like, well, we want to hold on to people or we want to hire additional people because we're worried about after the recession and expanding our capabilities.

And then the recession never materialized. And so it feels like there's more upside than downside at this point. Yeah, I love reading the comments like on like the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Report or some of the ISM. And that has been a thing that pops up, which is that basically either managers don't believe that a recession is coming or they see a recession as an opportunity to gain market share from their competitors or gain employees from their competitors, in which case if everyone has that mentality, it's hard to see how you get a recession. Wait, I want to ask Neil about something else you've been writing about, which is the potential

for a Fed policy error. And I've really only seen two people talking about this. And you're coming at it from polar opposite side. So I've seen the Victor Schvetz talk about the Fed's going to hike into a recession and there's going to be an error in that form. But you're talking about they're going to basically pause while inflation is still booming and that's going to be an error. Yeah, I mean, where's the evidence that they're hiking into a slowdown? They're pausing right now. I mean, no one's talking about them. I mean, so that's, I mean, it's just wrong.

It's just that's that is not correct. I mean, we've had some version of that argument for so many quarters now, I feel like, oh, they're hiking into a slowdown. I mean, that was something that people were saying late in 2022, right? I mean, I think, I believe. So to me, we're making very, I mean, job growth is slowing. But if you think about like potential, what is potential? What is break even? It's around like, what, like 100,000, maybe a little bit more?

And we're still, we'll still well above that. I mean, household employment is still reasonably strong. I mean, that's been running like over 200,000 in the last few months. I saw something in the journal where one commentator was saying, oh, you know, this is like the classic Fed where they're putting too much weight on lagging indicators and now they're setting policy to lagging indicators like inflation. But that's, they are paying a lot of attention to inflation and a lot of attention to the labor market.

But that's exactly why that's wrong is because they are lagging indicators. Yeah. They have slow. That doesn't mean they will slow. Yeah. So for listeners, for listeners that don't know, one of the great things about following Neil and paying on his distribution list is that he's. not afraid to criticize the people who have been calling for a recession for like basically

the past 12 months. Who's your Jeff Gunluck? Yeah. Who do you want to take a shot at? I don't like to name names. I don't, with my peers on Wall Street, I always, if I've worked them, I always try to prop them up or speak highly of them. But I don't need to say anything.

I mean, everyone knows who they are. I mean, they come on your program. They come on this chat. They come on Bloomberg TV. and they talk very confidently about recession. And I've talked to Joe about this many times offline, but there is a cottage industry that is just doom and gloom. Think about the people that were like talking about

the weekly Red Book sales index over the last like six months because it's been going down and down and down. And now it's starting to pick back up. I mean, where are those people now? It's one of our, and I'm sure Joe knows them, Sam Rowe. He has this great point. It's like, we went out to dinner with Sam Rowe in California. We got a great prime rib. Yeah, it was good. And Sam ordered a smoked old-fashioned and they like, it was a very fancy looking cocktail. Very good for Instagram. Anyway, sorry, keep going. His Instagram is

great by the way. Yes. Follow Sam Rowe. He does a great job of sifting through all the TikTok so that I don't have to join that platform. But so for example, like with Walmart, right? Like he'll make this joke about, you know, Walmart sales are up. So the bears say that that's bad because consumers are being stretched. But Walmart sales are now down. And then the bears say that's really, really bad because that means the consumer can't even afford the stuff that's on sale at Walmart. Or the credit card one is one of my favorites. It's like, oh, people are cutting back on their credit card spend because, and that's bad for consumption. Or now they're spending too much on credit cards and they're stretching themselves into oblivion. So it's just you can't win with some people. And frankly,

there is a cottage industry of newsletter subscription writers that make their money selling this sort of thing. Wait, we got to be careful because we also have a newsletter. We don't sell it. No, that's true. It's free. It's free. But my favorite instance of this is everyone who is talking about how the inverted yield curve was predicting recession, right, within the next 12 months or something. We've now had it for months and months and months on end.

So all those people have now flipped from the yield curve is a sign of impending recession to the inverted yield curve causes recession, which is a fun little transition. By the way, Tracy, our producers are money, you're wrong. Actually, you have to be a Bloomberg.com paid subscriber to get the Oddlots newsletter. So we are kind of in the business. You know, you having worked now both at a major bank on the sell side now for Renaissance macro, why is there demand from customers for the sort of like doom and gloomongers? Like, why do people want that in your view?

Because they couldn't, all these guys couldn't make a career if there weren't an audience, if there weren't a customer base for it. I mean, the human mind is conditioned to believe that people that pitch a negative story are somehow like the nostridamus. I mean, I have a, my view on things is that it usually works out. That's, that, and, and I think that makes me, I think that makes some people just think that I'm an idiot, right? Because I just think, I mean, it's like, oh, you're like a dope.

be like, you know, but things have a tendency of working out. Like society heals. People figure it out. Like that's what we do. I mean, we, we have a relatively open society. Things work out. Isn't the Sam Rose line in the long run stocks go up? Yeah.

Well, I came around to your review several years ago because I remember people often say like, oh, hope isn't a strategy. Like, that's a thing. I kind of think it's the only strategy because once, no, I really believe this. Once you sort of have like a crystal clear idea of how a crisis is going to resolve itself, is probably priced in. So, like, for example, you know, if you waited until, like,

after the Karzac pass and everything else, already, like, you were, like, way off the bottom on stocks. If you waited until Mario Draghi's OMT speech for the Eurozone crisis, already, like, the market bottom. Like, if you wait for... So in the meantime, like,

the only, like, bed is, like, yeah, they'll probably work it out. I think so. I mean, that doesn't mean that there aren't periods where things can be going awry, and it's important to point that out. But what I don't like, and I think this is,

what a lot of these domers do is that they start with the conclusion first and then they work backwards. And I hate that. What you need to do is take an astute sort of observation of all the data and then lead yourself to a conclusion. Right. So that's how I think about it. And that's how we try to do our work. Okay. So you're optimistic sort of sunny guy. That being said, so we are recording this on Thursday. We don't know tonight there might be a strike at the UAW. It's possible that we wake up tomorrow morning when people are listening to this and a strike. on. We don't know, unfortunately. It's just the timing of how a recording worked. But Goldman put out a note this week, and they said there's three sort of risks right now. And that everybody knows about.

Right. The UAW strike, student loan payment reset and government shutdown. Are those concerned you at all? Are they like enough to move the dial? I think that those are largely priced. I mean, the student loan repayment thing may, I mean, part of that might be already happening. I mean, it looks like if you look at the daily treasury data, I mean, there has been an influx of money into the government's coffers from student loans a little bit ahead of schedule. So maybe we front-loaded some of that drag. I don't know. I mean, I've been through so many government shutdowns now. It's never seemed to matter. The market tends to look through it. It's going to be really annoying, though, if they do stretch that into October because then I won't get the September

jobs number potentially, and that would be, that would be a team. Wait, we wouldn't get a jobs report in a government shutdown? Yeah, you don't get them. Oh, man. What are we going to do? what are we going to do on the first live our lives too? What are we going to do on the first Friday that month? I guess I can sleep in.

I mean, the UAW strike, it's one of these things where kind of like the shutdown, right, where you actually have to kind of go over the cliff to get to the resolution. You have to show them that you actually mean. But I think, you know, as I mean, we have very little, I mean, the inventory situation in the car market has improved somewhat, but it's still well below. Like if you look at day supply for cars and trucks,

it's still well below where it was before the pandemic. So that to me probably argues for a more. rapid resolution to this than appreciate it. But yeah, I think that they probably strike, but that the pressure will start building pretty quickly over the week to come to some kind of an agreement. Wait, what would concern you? Like, if you had to put on your doom and gloomer hat, if you started a newsletter today, what would be the big risk? Well, I just said it. I mean, I think that, I mean, we've been talking about it, which is that inflation stays stickier for longer and that's going to, I mean, right? So, yes, I'm optimistic, but at the same time, an

optimistic economic outlook right now isn't necessarily a good one for markets. So that's the kind of distinction you want to talk about. I also wonder a little bit about manufacturing competitiveness, right? I mean, if you look at manufacturing productivity in the U.S., it's been very, very sluggish for the last several years. And this is now happening at a time when we are pushing up compensation costs across a number of industries. To the extent that we're not as cost competitive, that could really be challenging.

Because remember, Joe, I mean, in the 2010s, it was all about the U.S. manufacturing and industrial renaissance, right? And, well, I don't remember that. I thought that's the story now. That like now is like the actual like domestic manufacturing investment. I mean, back then it was about the dollar was lost so much of its value from 2002 to 2008. Our unit, our labor costs were right sized. And now it seems to be going the other way. We have a strong dollar. We have, you know, unit labor costs have been rising relatively quickly in the manufacturing sector because productivity has been so sluggish. So that's, that's something that's longer term. I mean, I don't think it's, it changes any cyclical. momentum story, but it's something to keep an eye on. Can I end this with a sort of personal statement? Is that okay? Go for it. You work out this summer?

You look fit. Oh, thank you, Joe. I appreciate it. I have lost weight the old-fashioned way. I would call it the Indian way, which is just fasting. Really? Tracy loves it. My people, we fasted our way to independence, and I'm doing it to a better body.

In my day, we call this dieting. Yeah. Anyway, he's working out. No need for a Zimbic here. One thing I learned from Joe is that guys just want to be asked if they've been working out. That's like all they desire from life. This is true. Lots more is produced by Carmen Rodriguez and Dashel Bennett with help from Moses Ondom.

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But I've always been curious, who are these people as leaders? I don't think there's one right way to be a leader. Make decisions. A poor decision is always better than no decision. Listen to new episodes every other Monday. Follow leaders with Francine Lacois wherever you get your podcast. Podcasts.