Odd Lots - Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech

Episode Date: September 25, 2025

There are two huge winning trades that people are looking at day after day. Gold keeps going up and US tech stocks keep going up. But what is driving this intense flow? How long can these consensus trades last? On this episode, we speak with Ozan Tarman, the Vice Chair of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank. As part of his role at the bank, Ozan talks non-stop with hedge funders, sovereign wealth fund managers, and, of course, the analysts at his own bank. This means he has an excellent perspective on why these trades are so popular now. He explains why there is a decline in confidence about the US sovereign (hence the rise in gold) around the world, but also an incredible fixation on the success of the big US tech companies (hence their constant bid). We also talk about other popular consensus trades, from steepeners to Chinese equities to Liz Truss moments all around the world.c Read more:China Courts Foreign Gold Reserves to Boost Global CloutNvidia’s OpenAI Deal Fuels ‘Circular’ Financing Concerns Only Bloomberg subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts Radio News. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Wisenthal. And I'm Tracy Allaway. Tracy every day feels like stocks and gold go up. Every day, stocks and gold and stocks and gold. It's just relentless.

I'll tell you what. It's good for anyone invested in an index fund and a bunch of gold coins that their dad gave them. Yeah, good for you. Yeah, thank you. The Tracy Alloway portfolio doing very well. Yes. No, you're absolutely right. And the big thing about this is it's not really supposed to happen, right?

Like, you're not supposed to see stocks shoot up because of optimism about the future while gold simultaneously goes up because gold traditionally is this sort of dower yellow rock, as you like to describe it, which usually signals something bad is about to happen. I'm going to relent. I'm going to relent on something. Are you a gold bug now? No. Well, I'm going to relent on something. Okay. Here we go.

I admit that gold is a metal. This is my big cave. It's no longer a rock. Yeah, this is my big cave. I used to say, those yellow rocks. You know what? I'll acknowledge it's a metal. If it's a metal now, will you admit that it has industrial application?

Yeah, but they're very minor. And this is also, I will not acknowledge that there is a, it is mainly a store of value or perceived to be. And when people are fearful, when people are mistrustful, when people don't trust, fiat currencies or the governments, and there's all kinds of reasons to be skeptical about the governments that issue paper currencies. I understand why people want to hold this metal that people have used as money for thousands of years. I'm going to take you back to the jewelry district in New York and get you more excited about gold again. No, and I'll just say on

gold. I loved it. And I wore that big chain when we went to the diamond district and I wish I'd bought it. Like, because now that's like my figure of great. In hindsight, it was like $35,000 gold necklace. And that today would probably be a $45,000 or $50,000 gold necklace. Imagine how much that diamond-encrusted Furby would be worth. This is the thing they don't tell you about gold, by the way. If you spend 10,000, this is my crank take on gold. That's not crank. If you spend $10,000 on a gold necklace, they give you a $10,000 gold necklace.

Yes. It's free. It's like you spend $10,000. They give you something worth $10,000 back. In a sense, it's a free transaction. No, you get two things. You get something to wear and an investment. Yeah, you actually, yeah.

I wish I had had this realization when gold was like $200 an ounce, but. Anyway, it took me a while. We'll make a gold bug of you yet, I'm sure. So these are really exciting wild times in the market. And the last time we talked to this guest was another wild time and an exciting time in the market. That was, of course, April. We do, in fact, have the perfect guest to try to understand everything that's happening all around the world in global macro. We are going to be speaking with the vice chair of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank, Ozan, Tarman.

Ozone, thank you so much for coming back on Odd Lots. Last time we talked to you, we were in London. And this time you're in New York. So thank you for coming to visit us. Very good to be in New York. I love to be on this show. I mean, honor to be invited again. Unga, Mark Gideeners, this is the highlights.

Thank you. Thank you. And by the way, I was going to bring my United Amalim jersey. Dear Joe really looks like him and some baklava for Tracy, but couldn't find in the airport. Next time. Well, that's a good reason to do another future episode. Actually, we talked a lot about gold at the beginning, but I don't want to first ask about gold. Is invidia swallowing?

the entire US or maybe even global economy? Almost hand in hand, right, these two questions. I mean, they both continue to go higher and higher. Actually, let me start with gold because you did put such an intro in it. One of the very famous memes on the internet, caricatur, done maybe two, three years ago, this gentleman or lady running a big macro hedge fund looks around. I run very complicated products, but at the end, I buy gold. And these days, that resonates even more.

more, mention even more and more in these roundtables in TV studios like this. Normally that jinx thinks, but it doesn't because at the moment it works in risk on and risk off. Last time you were around, again, you called me at a very relevant time, questioning US exceptionalism, I'm sure we'll go into that. What's going on with US institutions? Those question marks, all those question marks against the dollar help gold. FX is about stories against dollar.

I'm sure we'll go into this as well. Some of the stories are now having a less easy time, then people like to go into gold. And we may be going into a rate cut period, cycle or not, whether you're Miran or Hamak, that differs. But gold works in that as well. So for the moment, I always feel, you know, and it's the top trade on TVs, on my roundtables,

I put the Ornstein on, but at the moment it works for a reason. Now, NVIDIA. Yeah, I mean, if he had this show a year ago as well, you could have said, Ozan, As of this morning, one of my partners in success, Sarevelos, his piece is already viral. He's claiming tongue in cheek that NVIDIA is almost keeping US away from a recession. All that chip story, all that Kepex spending. If it wasn't for that, maybe we could either question or be in a recession.

I'm not sure he's saying it that tongue in cheek, though. Agreed. And also others are joining him. Again, I'm hearing from my dear France clients this very morning. Bain claims, unless revenues quickly catch up with all this AI KAPEx spent, we may be in big trouble

all of this will burst by 2030 and we'll go into recession before that. Now, we can say a lot can happen before 2030, but warning signs are there. Last night's big headlines the reason why again Nasda closed on the highest.

Nibedia investing into open AI, that also becomes almost circular. I mean, this is not Tangin Kijid, either takes you. Oracle invest in Open AI. Open AI invest in NVIDIA, back and forth. Back and forth. Is this a close circle?

I hear all the skepticism, also mainly coming from those who haven't caught this big rally since. A bubble is a bull market that you missed out on. I call gold a bubble. Tracy calls it a boom because of the difference and who inherited a bunch of gold crime. I should just mention we're recording this on September 23rd. I like that.

Right before Powell's speech, right before Trump. speech. So just on AI and the sort of self-dealing circleish, circuitous, incestuous relationships, perhaps, one of the reasons we like talking to you is because you talk to a lot of clients. And so you hear a lot of feedback from the by side as well. What are people looking out for in terms of saying, okay, this is a bubble? Because it seems like, all right, people have been talking about high valuations for a really long time. The stock just goes up. Is there something else that people are like watching for? in which case they might say, actually, we're going to start cutting back positions. Excellent question. Almost like two months ago, I was hearing more. I'm skeptical, but Fed cuts are also coming. You can't fight this. Now, especially from the pros who've been around, 90s and beyond, I do hear, look, this does feel a bit like end of 90s, beginning of 2000s.

By the way, the year you pick is very important there. But we may still run. That's one thing that more seasoned equity beyond macro pros. are saying. I also, it was a bit at the beginning of my career, but I was around in late 90s, early 2000s. Then the denominator almost didn't exist in this valuation discussions. There was hardly any cash around.

Everybody stuck, Joe.com is excellent in B2B, even better in B2C. And, you know, of course, hindsight is the world's top hedge fund, but you could feel it. Whereas this time around, you can question the 100 billion strong around in a circle, but you cannot question much. the revenue, the cash, Jensen, NVIDIA, Open AI is bringing to the table.

You cannot question much. Let's go beyond NVIDIA a bit into Magnificent 7. Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, they have customers. All of us are their customers. They make money. And in a way, talking about circle, more positive way of, more glass-half-full way of looking at it. NVIDIA is the big champ. Okay, but take NVIDIA aside.

All of us are than Oracle became a story. reason. From Oracle, we go to alphabet because for this time around, Judge decided favorably on Chrome. The story continues, moves from one asset to another. Also, yeah, NVIDIA is doing great. We'll talk about how Nasdaq, the Hercules is catching up with my blue hat mega, but it's rally spreading. NVIDIA is not the top stock in SMP year to date. Talking about waiting for Godo. Finally small caps rose up since the famous now Jacksonville, another famous Jackson-Oleish speech. So it's not just one.

One guy is very important. November 19, NVIDIA earnings are very important, but it's not just one stock. By the way, Ozan was regaling us or showing off his Make Europe Great Again hat. It's signed by Mario Draghi. If I owned that, I'm very jealous. I would not be carrying it around. I would be carrying it in a glass case and selling it maybe for eBay. You'd have it in the vault along with your gold coins.

I would have it in the vault along with my gold. But I respect it. How much I respect my clients I want to show off. Before we go further, actually, for listeners who maybe didn't hear previous episode with you in April, can you just give us a little back? You talk to everyone. You have these dinners. It affords you an incredible perspective on what a range of people on the street are thinking about just so that people can understand your perspective and where you're coming from. What do you do, like, on a day-to-day basis?

Who are the range of people that you talk to and how do you interact with them? My job is to talk to my bank's top institution clients. Oh, your job. HBunds, real money, but also because of experience, talent relationships going deep, this also includes now sovereign wealth funds, key private banking institutions. And I love, as you know, I'm a person who tries to bring things together. So in these round tables, small or big, it's not just hedge funds, it's not just real money, it's not just sovereign wealth funds.

All asset classes, credit rates, effects, emerging markets, my proud terrawa, equity, of course. So they learn from each other as well. Because we talked about in these shows, and equity perspective can be very different to a race perspective. Right as we speak, again, we are in one of these dull drums on if you define macro just as rates and effects. It's almost like a magnet. 412, on US 10 years, we tried below 4%.

412, 413, 414. As Tracy said, we are recording this on September 23 at 9 a.m. In three hours, Chair Powell will speak. Let's see if he changes tone or sticks to his so-called hawkish pressure. Some people hope that may again ignite a little bit of dollar stronger, rates higher tone. Otherwise, volatility in effects and rates are struggling. Meanwhile, equities continue to better and better. And back to your question, different sets of clients coming to my roundtables,

coming to my realm, learn from each other on why different assets classes act different. So you mentioned the dollar just then, and of course you have a very very international group of clients that you're talking to. Can we talk about the dollar drop this year? Because I think it's really important. And even though it gets some attention, it's nowhere near enough because we're talking about stocks rallying, U.S. stocks rallying. Things look a lot different when you start to adjust for currencies. How are people thinking about U.S. assets in light of the dollar drop? Very fair. I'm team Odlod. So I also remember last time we met is April 16 in London.

So just a week before the big fear. Eurodollar was right around 1-10, 111. We were beginning to sense that this could be a historic year in terms of the state dollarization, hedge fund ratios changing, but we swiftly moved beyond 115 as well. Now, looking at the picture, two things are very important.

First of all, the flows. Back to our friend, NVIDIA, back to our friend, Magnificent seven. because one pushback from some of my especially fast money friends who all either smell, want or wish a dollar squeeze after such a soft dollar move is what will the flows do? World continues to buy NVIDias and Microsofts.

Do they buy it hedged? So I was a little bit skeptical on that. By the way, flows are back. So a big difference to April 16. We can talk about that as well. Retail led rally. Look where we are all-time highs. My research, reports and claims,

again, George Cervalos, that in the last recent 30, 45 days or so, those laws, almost 80% of them are hedged. So people are buying their new media hedged. So believe it or not, 80% is a big number. Say it's 70, say 60. That definitely helps the soft dollar side of things. What continues to help is, of course, institutions decreasing their exposure to US. Like hindsight, I said rightly on that April 16th,

Nothing to end the U.S. private side exceptionalism. NVIDias, Microsofts so far are fighting back the threats of DeepSik, even though champion of the year is China Tech in terms of performance. But from Asia to Nordics, big, big funds are reducing their dollar exposure a little bit. 70 to 65, 60 to 55. That makes a difference. That made a difference. This is really important.

I think we should just continue. on the specific line because what it sounds like is all around the world, you have to have dollars to buy Nvidia. Invidia is a stock that's sold in dollars. Its profits are denominated in dollars. It sells things in dollars. And that's the same for all of the MagS7, including Microsoft and Apple. And all of them are doing phenomenally well.

They have real profits, real earnings, and so forth. They're very excellent businesses. And it sounds like basically all around the world, people want exposure. to a handful of extraordinary U.S. companies. Correct. They just don't want to take the risk that that denominator, and this time we're not talking about earning, but that the dollar that they trade in or sell in, et cetera, is going to go down further.

So they want everything about this. They just basically don't want the U.S. sovereign exposure that's connected to these American domiciled companies. Completely correct. And honestly, I was a little bit skeptic. I wasn't sure if you told me, Ozan this year. this big surge in Nibedia, Microsoft won't happen, then I would feel even more comfortable with the short dollar position.

But Magnificent seven roared. It may even pass mega. Despite that, dollar is also remaining soft. So whether I was skeptical or not, what you explained is happening. But I think for the next legs, ours included a lot of biencel site, are calling for 120, 122 like levels. You need now the European side of the story or whoever you want to talk about, Japan, China, the lagger side of the story.

FX is too late. We talked about why the dollar side of short dollar worked. Yeah. We need now a bit more help from our European story. Tracy, you know what strikes me as interesting about this, which is that when we think about countries where there's political risk and so forth, we don't often associate them with the most impressive enterprises in the world. And it strikes me that that's the tension we're talking about here,

which is that there's all this anxiety about the U.S. as a sovereign. for all kinds of reasons. That's not unusual. Other countries have sovereign risk. They're just usually not home to literally the most impressive companies of the world. No, and it is true that most of the investor nervousness around the U.S. has shown up on the sovereign side. Yeah, not the corporate side. Rather than the corporate side, which we've been writing about in the Oddlott's newsletter.

Which everyone should subscribe to it. Yes. Yes, seamless plug just then. Okay. One of the other, I guess, big questions about the market right now is there's clearly nervousness about fiscal dominance and federal. reserve independence, and that is playing into the drop in the dollar too. And yet, at the same time, stocks seem to be taking off. And a lot of investors don't seem to be that nervous,

at least on the equity side. What accounts for the discrepancy there? Two different roles. Talking about plugins, I also love the New York Times piece. I think you guys deserve all the, trust me, all those friends clients, they listen. They get very excited when I'm on. Now, Tracy definitely hit the right point. The dollarization is one key big team going into the end of the year fiscal dominance or not and the famous Fed independence those are my second and third key topics by the way where are where are tariffs all the way down to four I forgot about those fiscal dominance so we talk right I love brainstorming with you guys remember what I said in August as well summer everybody was everybody like some key investors

especially fast money we're gunning for from my dear island four key trust moments in four countries at the same time. What does that mean? Trust moments. We said you know what I'm talking about. Long land is getting out of control for people's, for market's big fiscal words. U.S., UK, Japan. What's the fourth?

For the right reasons, Europe. For the right reasons because ramp up, the German spending will come at the end of the year, et cetera. Some key investors were asking, well, one trust moment, we know how we handled. Chancellor, then Prime Minister, goes, different sets of points. policies. What happens if four goes at the same time? And we tried this on talking about dates. September 2 when you guys came back from wherever you came back from on the long, final final, final vacation, long weekend. UK GILS big move, followed by France because

the prime minister was about to go in six days. Join Tracy, how long did it last? Four hours. That long end sell-off lasted four hours. And I'm not trying to be funny. Basically, since then, US 30 years, Europe, even UK, has been much more under control, up until the hawkish presser, almost threatening below 4%. Even more than short dollars, Tracy. Over the summer and into fall, what were the real money and hedge funds common favorite trade? Steepeners, steepeners, steepeners. Europe, US, everybody and their brother had steepeners.

First, for different reasons on US, more than... due to the short end. That sooner or later will come to the Fed independence. The Trump side of the equation would win more. Finally, Powell would cave in, cut would come in. And on the European side, even more popular because of the long end. German spending coming through in October, November. People believed in their steepleers.

First, US got hurt, two NFPs miss. Long end moved big, flatteners hurt. Gold aside, whenever you say, all. Or NVIDIA side, whenever you say somebody says a trade is untouchable, watch out. European steepeners were supposed to be untouchable. Two days after that flattening washout in the US, Europe also got reduced. And since the Hulkech pressure, we are more balanced. On to Fed independence, again, just this morning of the press, Matt Raskin, my head of

US race strategy, previously from the Fed, very respectable analyst, wrote about this Fed independence, fear, not being in the price, not in the break-evens, not in the term premium. Why, I think a little bit because so far, let's die right into it if you wish, I think this cut is justified. In my mind, even if they cut 50 a week ago, it could have been justified. Talking about some dear client's friends, public, so I may say, Rick Reader publicly on TV and on his writing said they may and they should cut 50. because I think if they saw the revisions in June and July, they probably would have cut in June and July.

And going forward, okay, they cut 25. Not only they cut 25, Miran did his thing, probably. That's the dot. But Waller, Bowman stuck to 25. Even some of the previous Fed governors racing for the job, Bullard says they should have done 25. So people are thinking and hoping that there is still some Fed independence. Powell, even though he's the past man, has some control. all over the situation.

That's why we're not getting any Fed independence year on the long end. Joe, it is interesting, and I would not have expected this earlier in the year. But if you look at the Move Index, so the index of bond market volatility, it's going down. It's gone down quite a bit, which is not exactly what you might expect to happen when we're talking about things like fiscal dominance and Federal Reserve independence. But there you go. That is a good chart. I haven't looked at in a long time.

I want to go back to the gold conversation because we've kind of been dancing around and political volatility in the U.S. and sovereign risk in the U.S., etc. But like, let's talk about like gold in the U.S. or gold in the dollar. Like when you talk to clients, setting aside that it's a good trade, people want to ride a good trade, et cetera. How much fear, anxiety, et cetera, is there about U.S. political stability? And a prominent political commentator got assassinated recently in the United States. Sadly. What are people at your dinners maybe inside the U.S. or outside dinners saying about the U.S. when they look at our country?

That's why more and more countries are building up their reserves in gold, shying away from dollar more. My motherland, Turkey is an example, again, publicly known in terms of reserves. also let's remember what is still going on versus Ukraine and Russia, the sanctions that Russia faced or may face. So different countries are also because of that leaning more towards gold. So besides our macro discussions, ups and downs of rates, that uncertainty, that question mark over U.S. policy, that question mark over geopolitics, lead central banks to accumulate more gold. Joe, for gold to go down, the game should change.

This year, my game plan is going all right. Again, I was on air. I taught these big steepener, trust moments, long-gands crushing everything wouldn't happen. I didn't expect this much of a comeback. But again, I said there would be a comeback, especially retail, much more than pros believed in this. Namedia gold go hand in hand together. There should be something off the left field. For example, maybe on tariffs, all of a sudden tariffs, Tang and Chick-Chic Tracy,

are a bit the good boy. Revenues. They raise a lot of revenues. Twitter talks about it, TVs talk about it, Torson stock talks about it. If Supreme Court at whatever time, and that's also very key when they make the decision, once again, I'm sure they may, I know they may use S301, etc. But we'll be all of a sudden, that's the question mark now. What will the Trump administration do? What will best end do? Longans can get going again. And even though it's got nothing to do with necessarily Namedia and gold, the year's path may change. and things like that can take us off the... What about a big handshake with Xi Jinping? And a new... I mean, I don't know what it would be.

And, you know, my dream, obviously, is for a BYD factory in Tennessee one day, a Xiaomi factory, etc. But could that be a... Oh, this charts us in a new direction, something that is like a real... Let's reset this relationship. I'm not optimistic,

but would that be the type of thing that could reset the trajectory of certain markets? You talk like my jaw. Like a globalist, Tennessee factory, VYD, I mean, that's not the Unga Pulse at the moment. But sure, if that happens, my Godfield still says short-lived correction. But yes, what did I say? That's not the Unga Pulse.

That's not the New York Pulse at the moment. It would be a positive surprise, a little bit less scared of things, surprise. And, yeah, you could see that hitting gold. So I know it's number four on your list now, but we should talk about tariffs a little more. And I take the point that it could be a revenue generator for the U.S. and maybe that provides some support on the bond side of things. But on the other hand, I think most people would argue that it would slow economic growth, which should be a drag on the equity side, but we haven't really seen that.

How are people talking about the actual impact of tariffs right now? And I got to say, Joe, I got my first customs bill over the weekend. It wasn't too bad. I think it was like $16 or something. But they're here. There you are. I feel them personally. Very fair comeback, I guess.

especially fast money crowd hasn't necessarily given up on stagflation. My take, part of the reason why all these new media gold, long-end calls have been correct, I like to fade the inflation hoax and I like to fade the big recession bears who are much more quiet these days anyway. But yes, if President Trump continues to stick to them, even though on one hand they generate revenue and keep the long-end under control, there may be a growth impact on the other side accompanied by splice side immigration effects and the jury is out there on dear Mr. Waller, whether led by him, whether this is the famous word, T-word, whether this is transitory or not. More and more some clients start to say, my binkie, the famous chief global economist, start to say maybe this tariff effect wasn't as bad both on growth side and on inflation side. these people immediately get a pushback early days early days let's wait so will companies continue to eat them and not pass that much to the traces of the world to the to the customer especially

when we talk of beyond 10% tariffs which most countries face next year your country faces are very key midterm elections so i think trump and best sent know that they got elected because of inflation So the moment the stackflation camp starts to look like they are proving correct, even look like a bit of a climb on inflation, more slowdown on growth. I think we may get more and more tackle because they want to win those midterm elections, then they would take more and more steps lower on tariffs. But if they prove correct, if it's not reflected on the customer, if inflation continues to remain, okay, I know it's not 2%, but below 3%,

maybe this statistical continues. Sorry, did you just call Binky Chata my binky? Yes, I did. I love it. Even like when we, there's a lot of preparation going for these macro dinners as well,

trust me, when he sends his questions and his key bullet points, he tells me to start with my binkie. I don't think we've ever had him on the podcast. No, we should. We got to, we got to, yeah, I've talked to him a couple of times on TV. A big fan of his.

We got to make that happen. When you think about the U.S. economy and maybe the European economy too, but I think it's the U.S. And you think about growth prospects. This is something I've been asking a lot of people about. Like, how much do you think the U.S. economy as a, just the forward momentum of the U.S. economy, especially over the course of your career, how much has it become dependent on this

perpetual rise in asset values? And you think, like, do we need a booming market year after year just to keep that sort of like consumption, demand engine, investment engine going? Well, yes is the short answer. I think the details are even more complicated and a bit sad. I think you need, you, we need in this game. That's it thing, IT thing, IT, the next thing. It was B2B, BTC three decades ago.

3D, now, of course, AI, AI in the past three years. And also, US, I mean, again, the country that gave my education, right, in more open times for that, relies on growth, relies on animal spirits, relies on those asset classes to go higher and higher. And that's why the Tracy question from like 10 minutes ago is very key. Whether we're at, you know, we're getting their stage of the bubble or we're at the bubble. Because if that burst, economy can get affected as well. Also, Joe, I'm a big believer in the K economy, the whole terminology of that. So I said this again before on your shows.

World may be more okay for whatever we define ourselves as 1%, 5%, 0.1%. There's a much bigger part who are struggling, definitely on US, but globally as well. Some, again, it's a statistics thrown out there. These days, 10% of the U.S. consumers accumulate almost 50% of the consumption. And the rest, much less, wealth effect is getting bigger and bigger. When I was in college running around in this country, again, we were talking about the wealth gap. But now this becomes relevant, even macrorelevant. That's why people like me are okay with the rate cuts, risk management or not.

When you encounter Americans in London or Americans in Europe or anywhere outside. Englishmen in New York? Do they badmouth U.S. policy? Do they, like, talk about how terrible and, like, how much our institutions are deteriorating and how we need to get back to that sort of, like, good old-fashioned IMF orthodox economics of the good old days? Okay, let me get the past from Kobe and do a bit of a shack. Look, they do, especially if they have, like me, born and bred emerging markets, but now trading the whole wide world.

And if they are Americans, during my beautiful, beautiful. world, they are affected. When they hear conversations like this, they understand when they traded Turkey, Hungary, Argentina and say, okay, because of this politics, financial repression, I don't believe it. That's why I'm selling the currency. It was easier to do for somebody else's land and currency. Now, both it hurts them a bit and also it becomes a bit of a dilemma, right? They may continue to criticize some of the things that are going on, but for the, um,

arguments that I laid out, risk parity, at least the equity part, continues to do okay. And U.S. 10 years still is not going to 6%. It frustrates them. This brings me to, not in the, in our big ones, but big thematics, a key point. Going forward, much beyond the fourth quarter, what's going to win? The trust moments, my symbolic way of saying fiscal dominance or financial repression. Again, as somebody who's experienced in these Turkey, Hungary, Hungary, Argentina, of the world.

What does dear Mr. Besant say? As a former client friend, still a friend, banding the curve. He literally said, I'll band it, we will take care of the curve. He's just banned, even not take care of. Maybe through, like they do, being very watchful over the auctions, making sure auctions go very well, which they have been, one tips auction aside, maybe through buying much more on the short end,

vice versa, buying more on the long end to make sure that those rates stay under control, operation twist a la 11-12, they may win over majority is taught that fiscal dominance will win. My Godfield continued to say, don't necessarily bet against whether you like it or not, Fed and Treasury working more closely together on this a la US financial repression. Going back to your questions, some clients that Americans I meet in New York, London or San Paulo are a bit taken aback. by saying, are we becoming a bit emerging, marketized? What do you mean by Treasury and Fed working even closely together? This is not 2008, 2009.

But so far, those who bet towards that, those who bet with Mr. Betzant did better on their long and U.S. views. Speaking of the wide worlds, what are your clients saying about China in particular? Because, you know, I'm looking at a very good Bloomberg story on my screen right now. China floods the world with cheap exports after Trump's tariffs. And I think they just posted a record trade surplus. And there was another good article this morning, China wanting to be a gold storage hub, which I thought was really a strike.

He didn't become a gold hub. Doing a Switzerland, I guess. And the free points. But on the other hand, you know, growth has been slowing in China and there is deflation. But if you look at something like the Shanghai composite, it feels like people are starting to get a little bit more optimistic. What are you hearing? Three parts of that. First of all, China as an asset.

class. We have it here as alongside Golden Emerging Markets, champion of the year. In December, November, January, earlier, everybody and their brother, a bit like this, not a bit, like the steepener trade of this August early September. It was the top trade, going long dollar CNH. These tariffs, lightizer, they would be the toughest on China. There is no way. All the dollar CNH calls were both starting with seven and a half, strikes at eight.

All of that didn't materialize. Okay, we didn't go to 690, 680, 680, but the CNH is appreciating. Talking about the day we made April 16 on April 9, the big fear was on that morning when we questioned the system, April 9 morning, China would devalue big time, big bank. They didn't do any of that. And currently, my head of Greater China Trading Tan, who named Rob, nice to call this China Tech and CNH rally, thinks that, and with his research, R&B strength has more legs to go. because wherever they go around the world, Peru, ports, Brazil, Amazon, forests, following the China corporates,

back to our discussion. These guys are full of dollars out of their ears. And now, for discussions, for the points that you mentioned, they want to hedge a little bit. So they want to sell their dollars a little bit, and that's a big factor.

So that's, I think, China Tech will continue to be the champion asset class. Gone to my head, maybe not going to 690, 680, but I am still betting with CNH and R&B strength over dollar. strength, one of these laggers of the year will do better. To the world effect, you guys actually Bloomberg had a great piece this very morning, like Tracy

said, on exporting this inflation. So two big countries in this world are American, our China, Mr. Trump is doing what he's doing. On the tariff side, this other big countries of the world don't necessarily fight with the other big giant in the world stage. So those cheap cars are coming into Europe's and beyond. And that is a macro factor. Why?

Because ECB, back to Blue Hat now, they're done. Madame Lagarde very defiantly says they're done for now. Madame Schnabel for now is winning the discussion. Even Lane is sounding a bit more like her, more hawkish. Let's see, they don't, we maybe, we don't have an inflation problem, printing below 2%. If anything, my Mark Wall, chief European economist thinks it may go lower to 1.6, 1.5s. If that happens, let's see what their tone is come December. come January. If this China continues to export to this inflation, maybe even though they don't

say it now, they may have to end up cutting. So that's a big factor for the European story. Joe, we should have asked Ozan to wear his Europe hat for this entire interview. I know. It's a cool hat. Ozen-Tarman, vice-share of global macro at Deutsche Bank. Always a pleasure meeting up with you. Always seems to be at exciting times in the market. Also, we like talking to you because it's just a list of. of Deutsche Bank analysts is like, oh yeah, we need to talk to that guy. That's right. I'm right.

I know. Good sales. Anyway, thank you so much. This was great. Thank you so much. I love catching up with those on for all kinds. Always really fun. He's a great read on one of the popular trades right now.

Or just the talking points, right? And the talking points. This idea that, you know, we don't talk about the Chinese market that much in terms of the stock market. We do a little bit. But the idea that from his perspective, Long China is up there right now with all the big ones, Nvidia and gold. And up until recently, the steepener, maybe that's fallen off a little bit because it hasn't worked as well, that this is one of this sort of top-tier consensus trades right now, something that we should probably talk about further.

I also find it interesting that tariffs have fallen from like number one on the list of concerns to like number four, if that. No, that's totally right. I mean, when we when we talked to him, that was middle of April. in London or early April, I think. And so it was all about tariffs. And yet, despite the fact that tariffs are not top of mind for a lot of traders apparently right now, it is interesting that still this idea to we don't really want to have exposure to the U.S. per se. We want to have exposure to U.S. companies, but not the U.S. per se, that's all part of the story. Speaking of which, another really good chart to look at right now is gold versus real rates.

So you can bring up like tip yields or something like that. And you can see there used to be a really strong almost one for one correlation. And that's broken now. That's very interesting. Right. Because it suggests that there's something else going out, right? Because it's very easy to say, okay, real rates, et cetera. They're going down.

You want to like own goal. Yeah. It's that sovereign concern. It's like something deeper and it may be deeper to a lot of different sort of, you know, Western governments and fiat currencies and so forth. A lack of trust. maybe something that doesn't show up in a traditional market showing up in gold. I do think that's really important.

Yeah. All right. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Wisenthall.

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