Odd Lots - The Oil Industry's Double Whammy of Higher Costs and Lower Prices

Episode Date: May 15, 2025

The new administration has a "drill, baby, drill" mantra and a much more liberal attitude towards the oil and gas industry than the last one. But that hasn't translated into great profits for the oil industry itself. Crude prices have sunk and tariffs have raised the cost of components for companies trying to get energy out of the ground. So, what's the future for the industry? And who is actually making money right now? In this episode, we talk to longtime energy industry veteran Peter Tertzakian, the founder and president of Studio.energy, which consults with various industry players. We discuss the state of the overall North American energy industry, the prospects of peak onshore oil production in the United States, pipeline politics, and why liquified natural gas is expected to be the hydrocarbon of the future. Read more:Say Hello to ‘Nil, Baby, Nil’ in the Oil PatchTrump’s Thirst for Cheap Oil Irks an Industry He Loves to Praise Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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I'm Joe Wisenthall. And I'm Tracy Allaway. Tracy, I think at least temporarily, some of the trade-related headlines are quieting down. And so it's sort of time perhaps to understand. I don't want to say new normal. I just don't feel like, that's like jinxing it a little bit. but like what the new environment looks like for some of the industries that have been whipsawed and affected over recent weeks and months.

Yeah, 90 days for investors, executives, and podcasters to kind of catch their breath and consider the new environment. That's how I would describe it. And then it'll probably all change again. It'll all change. We're never going to run out of fresh material and fresh stories to talk about. You know, there's always this thing. People are always surprised that there is this phenomenon which seems. to occur in markets in which Republican presidents tend to not be great environments for the oil industry.

Like people think, oh, yeah, here we're going to have this pro-oil president come in. But pro-oiled, I don't know what that means, but if it means more pro-drilling, pro-liberalization of energy regulations, then often that means lower prices and less profits. And then, you know, you get an environment where you get a Democratic president who wants to constrict expansion. focus more on alternatives and then profits go up. Anyway, the pattern seems to be repeating now and oil prices have done pretty badly since the start of the year. Yeah, so this is something we've been watching, we've been writing about it in the Odd Lots newsletter. There was that great report out from the Dallas Fed, their regular energy survey, and it had a bunch of quotes from anonymous oil officials

that were really kind of extreme in various ways. And I think one of them kind of nailed the theme, which is that you can't really have $50 per barrel oil and U.S. energy dominance. That's right. It's incompatible in various ways. So I think we should talk about that tension. We should absolutely talk about the tension in addition to the supply, and we know that OPEC is pumping more. There are all the input costs going up, particularly from tariff affected companies in the U.S. What does it steal tubular? Tubular components, Christmas trees. Those are, the little collections of valves and spools. Yeah, so we're going to get into all that.

This double whammy, so to speak, we have seen a bit of a rebound as we're talking about this on April 13th, 2025 at 10.07 a.m. Eastern time, the price of a generic barrel of West Texas intermediate, $62.96. I don't know how profitable it is at that level, but we have the perfect guest. Someone we spoke to a few years ago when the industry was under a very very very, very different conditions, but someone who has a very sort of granular understanding of the industry. We're going to be speaking with Peter Tertzacke and he's currently the founder and president of Studio.com. Previously, it was a managing director at Arc Financial, which did investing in the oil industry. So an expert in the space has written books about the energy industry, energy

transition periods and so forth. So Peter, thank you so much for coming back on Odd Lots. Well, I'm delighted to be back. Thank you. $62.95 now. Can the industry make money at these levels? Who's making money at these levels? Well, the industry is composed of many, many players that have many different geographic land holdings and therefore many different extraction methodologies and different grades of oil. So, you know, $62.96, if we think of it as an average price, is sort of okay. It's marginally profitable. for a large part of the industry, but there's no question that higher cost producers

start falling off the map. And what you also see is things like stripper wells, wells that are very low productivity, start to get shut in at these levels. And then there's the boardroom discussion about, well, what is the longevity of these prices? You know, the 62.96 is, and actually, it was only about a week or two ago,

it was in the 550s. Yeah. You know, it's like the, you sort of look at that in the boardroom, and you just say, okay, is this going to last a quarter or is it going to last a year? And you probably say, you know what, I'm going to wait a quarter before I start making any major decisions on my budgeting. What's the funding environment like right now? Because I remember if you look back at the shale oil boom in the sort of mid-2010s,

this was the big driving force, right? Like everyone wanted to invest in oil. And so we had this big boom, and then we had oversupply and prices crashed. And now all the energy companies say they want to be really disciplined when it comes to capital spending. They want to return more money to shareholders. I don't know. Are shareholders interested in that particular proposition and is funding still like a little bit difficult to get? Yeah.

So let's talk about that because it's really important, you know, the equity funding, which was so much a part of the shale revolution. You know, it started really in the Bakken around 2009, moved into the Permian around 2011. and more broadly. And there was a lot of equity financings that sort of the money just came in at low cost of capital. Things really started to change, as you pointed out, Tracy, in 2015-16,

with the price wars, the drop in the price per barrel as the Saudis tried to take their market share back. But there was another moment that was really important. That was around circa 2017-18. And that was when the whole end of oil narrative started to occur. Right?

that was, and if you wind back to Elon Musk, the Model S was coming out and starting to make traction, lots of buzz about electric vehicles. And it was as if the end of oil was nigh within 10 years. And so investors, sort of the combination of, hey, you guys aren't making money in the oil and gas industry. The prices are low. And by the way, it's a sunset industry. Therefore, just give us your cash flow or a significant portion of cash flow. We'll put the money a lot. elsewhere. And that was a sentiment. And that sentiment, you know, recently started to come back post invasion of Ukraine and the geopolitical elements sort of coming back and the price of oil rising above $70. It made it, okay, well, let's have another look. And then the sort of the demise of the whole ESG type narrative. But, you know, this latest oil price drop has sort of taken the resurgence off. What do you call it? The sentiment has sort of turned a little, hmm, I'm going to just watch this. I've seen this movie before.

What does it take? Like, oil isn't going to go away in 10 years, obviously. But there was a unique set of conditions in the 2010s. There are also the technological gains. There was the cheap capital. Like, is that gone forever? Or is the industry so cyclical and so boom and bust that it's plausible that at some point we see another crazy drilling war? Like, it feels like maybe I'm naive to think that that can't. be recovered because people in the oil industry, they're a little bit crazy, and you can never

count out the possibility that they all go gung-ho for expansion again at some point in the future. Well, it's a great point because, as I said, it's sort of like, okay, we've seen this movie before. Yeah. If you recall, like it just only been in the last couple weeks that OPEC plus is basically, which was really Saudi Arabia, basically saying, okay, we're going to open up the taps another 400 and 11,000 barrels per day on top of the 600 or so. So at a time when the economy is weak and you sort of question the motivations,

okay, are these guys trying to take back the market share that they feel that they're lost? We saw that movie back in 2015. But to be able to go gung ho, you say, Joe, you need capital. You need to be able to replicate the low cost of the capital era of the 2010s, which was coupled with low inflation, low interest rates. we don't have that. We don't have that circumstance right now. So the planets are not aligned for a gun co drilling.

And I think that the oil and gas executives are much more savvy today, that they sit in the boardroom table and say, okay, I'm going to watch this. I've seen this before. And by the way, in the world of corporate governance, it's shareholders who really oversee the board, and the board oversees the management. So ultimately, the shareholders are the ones that are deciding

whether or not the industry is going to go gung-ho. And right now the sentiment is no. You know, Joe made the point earlier in the intro that one of the strange realities that we all live with seems to be that the oil industry leans Republican. I think that's fair to say. Meanwhile, the price of oil tends to do better under Democratic administrations. And in fact, our Bloomberg colleagues had a really good piece out, I think just this week. It was called Trump's Thirst for Cheap Oil. irks in industry he loves to praise. And in it, they quote a guy who owns a sort of oil component store in Texas. And he has this really funny quote where he says, we make our money during Democratic administrations. I killed it during Clinton, Obama, and Biden. I said that at the

country club and I thought somebody was going to kill me with a butter knife, which is hilarious. But like, what is the attraction? What is the Republican pitch to the energy? industry, which seems to resonate potentially in the face of reality. Yeah, that's great. I mean, from a statistical perspective, you want to get into the details, and correlation does not imply causality. In other words, I'm a little suspicious that Democratic administrations are the cause of greater prosperity for the oil and gas industry because the overlay of the technological

revolution of horizontal drilling fracking and all that stuff has nothing to do with political administrations, nor does it necessarily. have to do with other major factors. But it does speak, crazy, to the tensions you're talking about. I read that article as well. And there's no question that the Trump administration and the lead-up even to the last election, the rhetoric was drill, baby drill. The industry was very closely aligned with the Republican narratives, and particularly with the narratives of reducing regulations and getting rid of ESG and all that kind of stuff. But there wasn't a lot of narrative about, necessarily what they're going to do with price.

Right. And price is set globally. And that's a whole other dynamic that comes into play. What's happening? So you're based in Calgary. Yeah. And obviously one of, Tracy mentioned that Dallas Fed Energy Survey. And part of the concern for the U.S.-based players is that their cost of goods,

you know, what is it? The tubular component. Sorry, I don't know why I can't remember. Prices are going up. etc. Can you talk a little bit about input costs and what's happening there on sort of both sides of the U.S.-Canada border? Yes, this is a big issue, the trade wars, the tariffs, and you can get it into the details and call it tubular goods and valves and so on, but ultimately we're talking about steel and we're talking about the raw inputs that are fundamental to building facilities, to drilling,

to production, tubing, and so on and so forth. So when the Trump administration started the trade wars effectively and the tariffs slopping tariffs on steel, well, yeah, the input costs are ultimately going to go up until such time as their desire, in other words, the Trump administration's desire to domesticate or repatriate the steel industry to the point where it's competitive with the cheaper steals

from the rest of the world. So there's no question that you're, going to see inflation in the oil field. And there's often a lag. I mean, this story is only a couple months old, right? Three months old. Like, you will see the permeation of higher steel and steel product prices into places like the oil field over the course of the year. So, yeah, stay tuned for the costs. You know, we've talked earlier about the $62. Yeah. And whether or not that's economic, well, it becomes less economic when the core inputs to the oil field start going up. I'm Francine Lacqua, an award-winning journalist, and I've got a new podcast, leaders with Francine Laquois from Bloomberg podcasts.

I've interviewed everyone from heads of state to fashion icons about the news of the moment. But I've always been curious, who are these people as leaders? I don't think there's one right way to be a leader. Make decisions. A poor decision is always better than no decision. Listen to new episodes every other Monday. Follow leaders with Francine Lacquois wherever you get your podcasts. Where are we in the sort of oil technology upgrade cycle? Because I remember a few years ago, I guess again coinciding with the shale boom,

there was this big drive for standardized components and that was starting to bring down some of the costs for producers. Are people still doing that? Do we still have big upgrades taking place? Well, there are, again, it depends upon the extraction methodology. So there's two sides to this. One is the drilling, the exploration completion side of the business. So I think there's still more surprises coming there.

It's just amazing in terms of the types of wells that are being grilled a couple miles down, several miles across, and then horseshoeing back to be able to recover more and more oil. And natural gas, by the way. And which means that the capital cost per foot that you drill, the capital cost per barrel that you liberate goes down by virtue of technology only to be offset by, we just talked about the capital input costs of then developing the facilities to be able to extract process and distribute the oil out of the ground. You know, getting back to your question, there's the subsurface technologies which continue

to surprise. I think there's more to come in that. And above ground, what's happening is the drive for greater efficiencies to turn the oil field more into a manufacturing operation and to drive costs down through scale. Hence, you've seen the consolidation of the industry happening. Scale does matter. And so, you know, there's a lot going on from the perspective of process

and efficiency drive to bring costs down, only to be offset by the, as I said, the input costs going up. And then the pressures of price going down, which is the number one dominant variable, which then dictates whether or not there's a margin squeeze, a profit margin squeeze or not. Can you talk a little bit more about the discovery process and, you know, what tech looks like in May 2025 versus say 2015 or 2005 and like what specifically, like what specific tech is being employed so that these companies can gain greater visibility? ability into what's happening underneath the Earth surface? Yeah, well, that's a good bracketing. 2005, the industry was still dominated by vertical wells. You drill a well in the ground, and it's like throwing darts at a board. You know, the geophysics, in other words, the ability to map the subsurface and understand where the oil is, what the gas is, was pretty good, but it was still

sort of a hit and miss type of thing. And that was the way it was for over a century. The advent of more precise horizontal drilling, which was really nothing new in 2005, but it really started to take root with better instrumentation, better mechanics, mechanical instrumentation and so on, and the ability to position the drill bit was a major advance. And then by 2015, it was, okay, you're driving this drill bit down into the ground, you're bending at 90 degrees and you're going out, and then, From 2015 to today, 10 years, it's like, okay, let's go down, and now the subsurface looks like a fork. It doesn't look like a single well.

And the importance of this can't be understated because now you're exposing more surface area of a well. You know, instead of one vertical well with, say, I don't know, 20, 30 feet of exposure in a vertical cylinder, all of a sudden now you have miles of exposure of a well going out. horizontally and then forking and then now even making U-turns and horseshoeing back. I mean, it's just incredible what we can do. You can think of a drill bit, which is a solid steel pipe, it's seemingly, but it's more like now a piece of spaghetti going down and winding around to make sure that we optimize it.

I would say one more thing that's super important is that the technology is now, again, that the extraction methodologies become much more. technical and the ability to focus on extracting the maximum amount out of a reservoir using these new geologic penetration technologies is just amazing. So there's more to come, in my opinion. And I never want to underestimate the ability of the technology to get better. So on the pros and cons of the current environment for oil producers point, I guess you have technological advances that are still happening. You also have, from the Trump administration, some regulatory changes. And I think there's something about co-mingling, I think they call it.

So a regulatory change that would, I guess, allow oil producers to pull crude out of multiple reservoirs. But are the regulatory changes enough to offset some of the higher costs we've been discussing? Well, that's a good question and one to be seen. I mean, generally speaking, the number one regulatory issue is to be able to drill a well completed and bring the oil and gas to market as quickly as possible because of the time value of money. Time is money. And so the removal of barriers to be able to drill, produce, and sell oil and gas is a big deal. And so, you know, we're sort of seeing some of that. But, you know, there's a big difference between what the Trump administration can do at a federal level versus what company.

have to do at the state level. And it's the same in Canada here. It's sort of federal regulations are overlaying on top of provincial regulations. So the, we call it the pancaking of regulations is also problematic. And so to the extent that pancaking is reduced and regulatory drag in terms of the time it takes to do things is reduced. Oh, and particularly, it's not just the drilling and extraction process. It's then building of the pipelines to get the commodity to the market. What's the state of pipeline politics these days? Because I know that seems to go in and out of favor, but maybe tell us about Canada. What is the state of the appetite to expand pipeline networks? Yeah, that's a great question. So it was definitively out of favor for 10 to 15 years, starting to come back

into favor within the Canadian public. And we now have a new prime minister, prime minister, Kearney, and he has indicated that, okay, we're ready to think about pipeline and export facility development and infrastructure development. It's, I would argue, more bias to the natural gas side, and particularly LNG, liquefied natural gas exports off our West Coast. But what was considered almost unthinkable, say, five years ago is all of a sudden invoke. And it's largely driven, frankly by the trade wars, the desire for sovereignty here in Canada over our oil and gas supplies and the need to diversify our markets away from the United States because for 70 years or longer, the United States has been our number one, in fact, our only market

for oil and gas. It's pretty striking, Tracy, that Mark Carney, of all people. I mean, it sort of does tell you a lot about how the winds are changed. that Mark Carney is also, you know, sort of on board or much more comfortable with pipeline expansion. Yeah, it's a shift for sure. Peter, since you mentioned LNG just now, can you sort of give us the state of play there as well?

Because this is something that's also been coming up, I guess, like the differing fortunes of crude oil versus LNG in North America. Yeah, well, to get the North American sense, you've got to get the global sense. So which commodity is growing faster in a demand and it's natural gas. Natural gas continues to grow quite handsomely. Oil is starting to level out. I don't think it's peaked yet. I think we've got a few years before oil consumption peaks, but natural gas continues to rise.

And we also now see the expansion of liquefied natural gas, certainly from the United States in Canada. our first big terminal opens up potentially in a couple months and more to follow. Globally, LNG, whether it's Australia, the Middle East and other places, is growing. And so it's becoming competitive, but the competition is also matched by growing demand. So LNG is definitely the hydrocarbon fuel of the future in terms of growth. And I think you're going to see more. And you talked earlier, Tracy, about regulation. I think that the Trump administration is definitely on board with reducing regulatory drag on building liquefied natural gas terminals.

And I think the drill baby drill narrative is much more tuned to natural gas than it is to the oil side of the equation. Yeah. Does the expansion of LNG export terminals raise prices domestically for domestic consumers of natural gas, say, in the US. Yes. And the reason is because for the past several decades, natural gas has been bottled up in North America, and particularly the last, I would say, 15 years with the Shale Revolution and the liberation of prolific amounts of natural gas here in North America, it's made our prices here. I mean, it's, what is it, $3, an MMBTU, something of that order, or $3.50 maybe. I don't know what it is today. Maybe you can pull it up, but whatever it is,

I mean, globally, the price is much higher. It can be $8, $9, depending upon the geopolitical state of the world. Yes, there is liquefaction costs. Yes, there's transportation costs, but there's no question that there was an imbalance in supply and demand in North America that has kept the price low. The producers have adapted to that and can make money off of it, but the whole desire to export globally is to liberate North American gas into the global market and raises the prices. So you're going to see the prices rise. And the forward curves are indicating that already. You can get the news whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Amy Morris. And I'm Karen Moscow here to tell you about our new on-demand news report delivered right to your

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Listen to the latest from Bloomberg News Now on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen. So, I have to confess, I rewatched Armageddon last week. Such a good movie. I can see why people think it was, like, secretly sponsored by Exxon, though. But just on this note, Peter, the first time we ever spoke to you on odd thoughts, I think a big chunk of our conversation was about talent in the energy space and actually securing workers who want to get into the oil industry and how difficult that was in the current environment. So fast forward. Let's see.

When was the last time we spoke to you? I think it was probably 2021. 20-22. 2020. Okay. So fast forward three years. What's the talent picture like right now? Yeah.

So there's two components to the talent. One is the downtown office workers, the geologists, geophysicist engineers, and that talent pool. So that talent pool was definitely, there was concern because of the retirement profile, the aging of the expertise, and the last decade where, again, we were talking earlier about oil and gas being perceived as a sunset industry. So why would any young person ever want to go into this business? And so it was creating a situation whereby there could be like a real talent shortage. And, you know, talent is still hard to come by. However, one of the things that's happened, again, technologies never ceases to surprise is that the combination of new digital processing technologies, AI, and so on, means that

whereas it used to take three geologists to do a job function, now you can do it with two or potentially even one. So actually what we've seen in the drive for efficiency that we discussed earlier as well, it's not just confined to the field. It's also in the office. So we're seeing actually reductions in workforce, but we'll see what that does to productivity. But generally speaking, there is this uncomfortable balance, in my opinion, between the supply and demand of labor.

I mean, the field, blue-collar workers, the issue is that if there's better jobs that are not, away from home, so to speak, because there's, you know, working on a drilling rig going in and out as hard, particularly if you have a family. That has not been as much of a problem, and there's sort of a stabilization. For example, if you look at the U.S. oil rig count over the course of the last while, I mean, it hasn't really grown that much. In fact, it's safe you go back to since the last time we talked, the number of rigs that are active have fallen from 6,700 down to 500, less than 500. I think it's the precarious balance at the moment. The saving graces, it's still of a very high-paying industry relative to other industries,

so that does tend to attract people. The one other thing I was wondering while watching Armageddon and all these drillers on an asteroid saving the world, is there a competition from geothermal nowadays for workers? Candidly, I haven't followed the rig count in geothermal. I don't think it's that big personally compared to the oil and gas industry. Could there be competition going forward potentially, yes. But I don't see it as being that big. But I could be wrong.

Also, speaking of careers, someone DMed me this yesterday on Twitter, and I confirmed it, which is that if you go to the careers page for Chevron, there is literally two openings that are being advertised in the United States. I think this is like office jobs. And then there is a lot of openings in for software developers and other things like that in both India and the Philippines, also Sri Lanka, also Buenos Aires. How much of these sort of like the office jobs in the industry, thanks to technology of various flavors, is capable of just simply being moved offshore?

I think quite a bit. I mean, it's like the digital revolution, which seems like, an old antiquated term continues, right? And now it's AI, and I think you're going to see more displacement of white-collar workers in the office as a consequence of this. I mean, very much the art of exploration and mapping the subsurface and engineering you can now do with fewer people and more technology. So I'm very conscious that we're having this big discussion about oil, and I think we've only mentioned OPEC a couple times. And we're recording this on May 13th. President Donald Trump is currently in the Middle East.

I think he's in Saudi Arabia right now as we speak. What's the state of OPEC at the moment? I'm aware there seems to be this market share war, and there's been discussions about boosting production yet again. But what's the overall picture? And what is it that Trump might want to get out of Saudi, at least when it comes to the oil? Yeah.

Yeah, well, the OPEC situation is really complicated on its own, let alone with what the president may or may not say behind closed doors and want. So backing up to the question, what is the state of OPEC? The state of OPEC is that the cartel sets quotas for production. So, I mean, in any country, in most countries, this would be illegal, certainly in Western countries, but there's a global cartel. which has been around since the 70s, and that is the OPEC cartel, which is expanded into OPEC plus to include the Russians and a few handful of other countries over the last couple of years. Overproduction amongst some of the members has always been a running theme. Recently, Kazakhstan has been overproducing, and that has made the Saudis not very happy. The Saudis are the largest producer in OPEC and really the leading country within the country.

cartel. So to teach them a lesson, basically, they said, okay, we're going to ramp up production and try and drive the price down so that it brings into line all the various members of OPEC. This is not a new story. This happens periodically. And so that's the state of play within OPEC. And so that comes at a time when global demand is weak as a consequence of the trade war and the uncertainties they're in. And so the con, combination of tenuous demand combined with opening up the valves a bit to teach some of the members of OPEC a lesson has led to the fall in the oil price from 70 bucks down to 60 or 62 today. What President Trump will say behind closed doors, I mean, as you said, his objective has a lot

of tension, as you pointed out at the beginning of the show, because on one hand, he wants to keep a gasoline prices low at the pump, say around the low $3 level per gallon. At the same time, if you keep the price of oil too low, the whole drill baby drill narrative falls apart. So therein lies the tension. Right. And I don't know how serious you're supposed to even take it anymore. I don't even know if people talk about it.

But that was like part of Scott Besson's, you know, 333 plan was the plan, you know, expand oil production by another 3 million barrels per day. in the U.S. That was one of the threes. And right now, I think it's pretty clear we're going in the exact opposite direction. Just going back to the trade war for a second, from just the North American perspectives, what are the impacts? You mentioned Canada wanting to diversify its export partners and so building out more export capacity. But when it comes to energy, what are sort of the first order impacts of the tariffs in terms of the flow of energy across the border? Yeah, that's a great question because it's multidimensional.

Okay, so the U.S. produces about 12 million barrels per day of oils skewed toward the light barrels like lighter oils like West Texas intermediate. Canada exports to the United States, 4 million barrels per day for a total of 16. and then you make up the other four by importing from various countries like Mexico and so on. So to bring it up to your 20 million barrels per day of consumption. So we are a very significant component of that. Most of our barrels that we sent to the United States are the heavy barrels, which are refined in the Midwest and in the Gulf Coast. And those refineries there are very much tuned to refining,

in other words, the recipes for heavier oils, not lighter oils. So, you know, initially when the tariff war broke out back post inauguration, it was like we're going to put 10% tariff on Canadian oils coming in. Well, that would have definitely increased costs to the refiners, which would be passed on to the consumers at the gas pump in part. Now, some of it would have had to be borne by the producer as well. It's all very complicated. But the bottom line is it's inflationary because effectively, a tariff is a tax and somebody's got to pay. And ultimately, if it's passed on to the consumer, they're going to pay. Now, we don't have that 10% right now because the trade wars have

simmered somewhat of late. But that has not prevented Canada from thinking, okay, wait a minute, we can't be reliant on one customer. MBA 101 says don't be reliant on one customer. It's concentration risk. So let's start looking for other customers. That's that's where it's up. With the Trump administration coming in, one of the things that we've seen is all these companies in all kinds of different industries feel very comfortable dropping a lot of their sort of, I guess you call it more liberal commitments, whether we're talking about ESG or DEI and we see banks and ever withdrawing from all these groups. And at least the big oil companies, you know, paid lip service or had various greening or climate initiatives.

or decarbonizing their own supply chains in some sense. Would you say, like, broadly, like, were any of those, were they ever serious about them? And by and large, like, does the industry sort of feel liberated at this point to not have to spend effort and time talking about these things? You know, it's a great question. And it doesn't have a simple answer because the oil and gas industries in both Canada, and the United States, as I mentioned earlier on, are quite diverse. There's hundreds of companies. Yeah.

And there's various attitudes towards things like climate change, decarbonization, ESG, across the board. So much as certainly we can point to certain CEOs, whether it's in larger small companies that are delighted by dropping all these things and thought they were nonsense to begin with, there are certainly other CEOs that take it seriously and have made conscious, efforts to decarbonize the things. So there's no, you know, I hate to fall into sort of these binary answers. Sure. To questions like that where I say, yeah, the whole oil industry is

relieved, because that's not the case. I think that there's definitely a full spectrum of attitudes. And I think that's true in any industry, but particularly this one. By and large, there's a certain set of policies, regulations that the industry will be relieved to get rid of, because if nothing else, the reporting burdens became so onerous that you need an entire department to report on these things, and that's costly. So there's no quick and clear answer, but generally speaking, I personally think the industry was overregulated from many dimensions, but that's not to say that I don't feel that some regulations are necessary. Joe, I'm going to ask a peak oil question.

Okay, good. I'm going to do it. No, okay, it's not really peak oil, although it does have the word peak in it. But I was looking through some comments from oil companies recently. And I saw the CEO of Diamondback Energy say that as a result of the activity cuts in the oil industry, it is likely that U.S. onshore oil production has peaked and will begin to decline this quarter. And there's actually a decent amount of discussion about U.S. production actually peaking and now coming down. Is that roughly correct, Peter?

would you say that U.S. onshore oil production, at least, has peaked? Well, I would answer that by, first of all, saying there's no shortage of oil in the United States underground. Like, there's massive amounts of oil. Has oil production, in other words, extracting oil peaked at 12 million barrels per day? My answer is, at $65 or so, yes. at current levels of capital inflow from investors, yes. Does that mean that it can't grow? The answer is no.

We talked earlier about technological improvements. It depends upon the geopolitics of the world. It depends upon the price of oil, therefore, if the price goes back up to $75 and that investors see that there's money to be made in the business, you'll start to see more growth and potentially competitive of the ability to compete even more with other producers and jurisdictions around the world. So there's no short answer again to this kind of question. So has oil peaked, oil production peaked in the United States?

Again, the answer is yes, at $65. And under the current conditions, it's peaked, in my opinion. Peter Church second, thank you so much for coming back on odd lots. And we'll catch up with you in a few years under what will probably be a totally different, unforeseeable set of set of conditions. Well, thank you so much. I'd love to come back. Tracy, I want to look at some of all this technology.

Like, the idea of what we think of is a sort of simple steel pipe actually being more like spaghetti that can you turn underground. I want to learn more about how that works. Yeah, that's amazing. I know. It's incredible. It would have been useful when they were trying to destroy the asteroid.

Yes. say that. Okay. Well, I thought one of the, one of the important things out of that conversation, and I still think it's underappreciated in sort of oil market history is just how much the shale boom was really a capital market story, as well as a technology story and a cost-cutting story and people, you know, standardizing little individual valves and reducing costs that way. But I think that's sort of the key at the moment, like how do you entice capital back into an industry, which has been burned multiple times and which, as Peter said, at the current level of oil prices just doesn't necessarily work. And I guess the other question maybe that could bring more capital to the energy space

is if more of these LNG export terminals in both the U.S. and Canada were to open up. And that gap, and people have been like, there's never been a global price of L&G. because the infrastructure hasn't been there. And there's been this glut in a way that's been very good for U.S. electricity consumers, this glut of LNG that hasn't been able to make it outside of the borders. But with pipeline politics changing, and it really is striking that someone like Mark Carney is warming to pipeline expansion for various reasons. With pipeline politics changing, with export terminal likely to be more built,

you could imagine at least on the LNG side a lot of money looking to exploit that persistent, that persistent global price arms, so to speak. Well, this is a big theme, right? And I think I said it on the podcaster. It was my question. But the differing fortunes between crude versus LNG right now just feel so, so striking. Totally. Like maybe we're getting somewhere close to peak oil demand. But as Peter said, LNG is clearly, or it looks like it is going to be the hydrocarbon of the future.

So when we think drilling, et cetera, we still mostly think oil, but maybe we have to reshift our mindset towards natural gas. If LNG is going to be the hydrocarbon of the future, I feel like we really need a benchmark to look at, right? Well, we're going to, yeah, we need a global price. Right. But then, you know, by the time there's a global price, then the ARB will be closed. If anyone's working on a global LNG price, get in touch. I'd be interested. Yeah.

All right. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Wisenthall. You can follow me at the stalwart.

Check out Peter Third Sack and has a number of very interesting books on energy history. Go check them out on Amazon. All good reads. Fellow are producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armin. Dashel Bennett at Dashbot. and Kale Brooks at Kail Brooks. For more Oddlots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash oddlots, where we have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes.

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