Odd Lots - This Is How a Currency Trader Actually Picks What to Buy and Sell

Episode Date: November 13, 2017

Most asset classes move in a fairly straightforward manner. They're either going up or down at any given time. But when it comes to currencies it's not that simple. Since they're all traded against each other (the pound vs. the dollar, the pound vs. the euro, the pound vs. the yen) there's always some rising and some falling at any given time. Everything's relative. So what drives these relative movements, and how do traders decide what bets to place? On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we talk to Ken Veksler, a currency trader, and director of Accumen Management about how this market operates, and how he navigates it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7 a.m. Eastern. Make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg television, radio, and wherever you get your podcasts. Hello, and welcome to another edition of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Allaway. And I'm Joe Wisenthal. So, Joe, I have a little bit of a confession to make. Okay, I'm listening. Okay. I'm glad you're taking it seriously. That makes me feel good. Oh, that wasn't facetious. I'm listening. I want to know what it is.

Yeah. Okay, so I know I'm supposed to be covering and writing about markets, but there is one market that I actually really dislike covering and writing about. That's interesting. I actually don't, sometimes I can guess where you're going with things, but in this case, I actually didn't know there was an area of the markets you didn't like. Ah, good. Okay, me feigning enthusiasm has been working.

The market is the currency market, the FX market. Yeah. And the reason I find it so frustrating, I guess from an analytical or a newswriting perspective, is whenever anything is happening, like the dollar is gaining or sterling is falling, everyone starts to point out that it's relative. Like, oh, the dollar is only up against the euro and sterling is only down against the Japanese yen. And it just drives me crazy because I find it's so difficult to pinpoint individual trends that might be affecting currencies when everyone views it through this prism of relativity. That's so funny because I really like currencies and I really like covering it. And I like it for the exact same reason because I see it as like this puzzle of trying to isolate out what's really going on. So you can say, okay, the euro is rallying, but it's not rallying against the dollar. And it is rallying against the pound, but it's sort of flat against the yen. And so what I like about is precisely this reason that it leads to this sort of like impure deductive reasoning where you.

look at all the different relationships, and then you could sort of isolate, okay, what is the variable that's trying moving? And I sort of see it like a puzzle. But, you know, I'd say, I never knew this about you before that it just drove you nuts. One man's trash is another man's treasure, I guess. Well, look, I think I have a way to make us both happy on this episode then. We're going to talk about the currency market. And I'm personally going to try to get a better handle on it and I guess you are going to revel in the intellectual puzzleness of it all. So it'll be fun for both of us. And to be fair, there's a lot I want to know too because I think I have some idea and I like this sort of all the relativity and the zero-sumness of it all. But I have to admit that

like I don't really know how someone a currency trader just sort of looks at the world and starts to figure out what to buy and what to sell. So even though I'm into it, I kind of feel like, and I'm starting from scratch in terms of really understanding it. Ah, well, you're in luck because we have a currency trader. Without further ado, then, let's bring on our guest for this episode. It is Ken Vexler, the CIO of Acumen Management. Ken, thanks for coming on. Thank you, guys. Good to be here.

Did I upset you with my intro or? No, no, it was actually quite interesting listening to the two of you back and forth on that because it's exactly that. I mean, it's a double-edged sword. So in very rare instances, is the currency market about absolutes. And in those instances, you're either along for the ride or you're chasing the train that's already left. And on the other hand, it's as Joe pointed out, it is a puzzle. And frankly, sometimes it's a puzzle where you just want to pick it up and throw it off the table and start all over again.

But, yeah, I mean, no, you haven't upset me. So, Ken, what is it that you do? I mean, in a little bit, I want to talk about the state of the currency markets or currently and how different currencies are doing. But in terms of what you do on a day-to-day basis, how do you begin the process of identifying potential trades? Look, I suppose in base terms, it's an ongoing process and one that has been ongoing for, well, as long as I've been in the market, which is near on 22-od years.

And it's a function of, I mean, look, obviously, different people approach it in different ways, but for me personally, it's all about price action. It's all about understanding fundamental macroeconomic drivers and movers. And as naff and as cliches that sounds, on the price side of things, it literally means being sat in front of a machine in this instance of Bloomberg and just watching things tick for tick, keeping an understanding or an eye on, data that's coming out, headlines, and the reaction function of the prices of various crosses to that very. news. Now, does something react positively, negatively, does it react at all? How does it react? What

does it do? What are the points or the price points that it then travels to on the back of the news? How long, if at all, does it revert once that news flash, supposedly, or data point has passed? So that, and that's something that, you know, that's memory training. That's a case of understanding or remembering that certain levels make sense at certain times, and invariably the market will revert to those levels. And it's then a case of what does it do once it gets there and why did he get there in the first place? Was it a piece of news, a data point, better, worse, etc. So my day revolves around understanding what, if anything, is out on the data slate on any given day, what the previous data points and the Cid, that particular data series looked like,

what's expected by the market. And more so, and this is a bit that you never really get a firm grasp of because there's no real metric by which to gauge it. It's a case of understanding how the market is positioned, understanding what the predominant narrative is, how the market has positioned itself around that narrative as it brought in to that narrative. Is it excessively long, excessively short? Is there a squeeze as likely to come when things reverse and what could cause that squeeze and the like? So it's all encompassing. And there's no, you know, there's no set template to say, okay, well, you do A, B, and C, and therefore, X, Y, and Z will come to fruition. There's a lot going on, a lot of moving parts.

So how do you actually keep track of those moving parts and form your thesis once you catch onto a sort of fundamental macro trend? Like, can you give us an example using a real-world event? Sure. I suppose the best example would be, and it's fairly prominent, obviously, based on what what certainly this country is going through in the last 18-odd months, would be Brexit. So at the very beginning, if not actually, the tail end of 2015 and certainly beginning of 2016, obviously we knew that there was a hint that there'd be a referendum announced and all the implications thereof.

But it was only sort of in the early parts of December where, for one reason or another, the market started picking up and there were headlines coming out of a specific date for the referendum, not just the fact that conceptually there would be one, but there was a date outlined, and any minute now would be announced as a consequence. And at that point, it sort of dawned upon me that while in the back of people's minds there might be the idea that a referendum might be held

and whatever ensues on the back of that, no one had actually started thinking about it. And for me, the trigger point was that all of a sudden literally out of left field, there was now a firm date as to when that referendum was held. At that point, there was no real bias in terms of positioning for the sterling, be it net long or net short. The year was winding down.

The Scottish referendum was relatively fresh in people's minds still. And there was a fair bit of complacency about it. But for me, it was a case of, well, hang on, all of a sudden, we're about two weeks of Christmas, and they're talking about a specific date. So that got me to start thinking about, you know, what could this mean for sterling? how is the market positioned, if at all, and more to the point, how would I like to best express that view

in the coming, what ended up being six months before the actual referendum? So to that end, and this is where sort of the relativism of FX trading comes to play, I started looking around for, okay, well, my base case is that it'll be a close-run thing when the referendum does come to play. People are, well, the market's probably not going to really be able

to price it. too accurately as it were. And so there's going to be a fair bit of, you know, tail hedging both sides of the equation. But on net, just the sheer nature of political uncertainty and as the rhetoric and as the noise and whatever else got louder as we got ever closer to the actual referendum, all of that would just by definition be sterling negative, no matter what the outcome of the referendum was going to be. So with that as my base case that there would be some sterling negativity creeping into the market as we got closer. It was then a case of finding what to best express that negativity against. For me personally, unless I've got an

outright view on the US dollar, I don't like to trade a leg against it. I always look for something else because the dollar by nature, there's a lot of noises, it's got its own stories, it's a global reserve currency and there's a lot that goes into place. So you might be right on the first leg, but you might not get a chance to express it particularly well because of all the associated noise. So I was looking at other stuff and I came across the Aussie. So for me the trade became selling sterling and buying Aussie. Now the reason the

Aussie was of interest to me was because it was pretty much in a sweet spot. It was trading around sort of the I think 73, 74 mark against the greenback and for me, fair value, if such a concept even exists anymore in FX, for the Aussie was

around the 75 mark. So for me the Aussie still had a bit of room to strengthen and at the very least had no real cause to weaken, you know, much beyond where it was. So it would be my rock, as it were, versus a currency of the sterling, which I saw had a lot of room to depreciate in the coming months. So as a consequence, I looked to sell the sterling against the Aussie.

And a trade or a position that I thought would take, honestly, you know, north of about two months to materialise, the vast majority of what I had initially projected as a potential move for it had pretty much come to fruition by either the first of the second week of February because that initial flashpoint for the thesis that no one had really been talking about Brexit or whatever the implications or the referendum, all of a sudden in the tail end of January, the date was firmly announced and everything that sort of, you know, kicked off from there started to really weigh down on the Sterling. The Aussie appreciated it a little bit, which obviously gave the whole thing a bit of a kick. And then from there it was just one-way

traffic. But then as we got closer to the referendum and certainly post-fact, Tracy, your notion of relative versus absolute came to bear because, I mean, the Sterling just got hammered against literally everything on the planet. So that was, you know, in absolute terms. But as far as a real world example of, you know, how mind works as far as looking for stuff, that's probably, you know, the best example I can come to at the moment. I love that example, you know, But sort of speaking to this question of isolating the trade you want to make. I thought that was a very important idea. That sort of choosing, getting both legs of the trade right.

And so, you know, you could get it right again on the sterling side. But if something, you know, if the dollar had strengthened, of course, we had our own election in 2016. So you don't really know what's going to happen there. I think that's a crucial thing that really differentiates effects trading from anything else. Now, something else you said in the intro was really interesting to me, where you sort of like talk about the market's memory of how a specific currency tends to react to different headlines or data points and which when it reverses. And one thing that we've really seen a lot, I mean, there's just been tons of sterling headlines for the last year and a half,

or I guess, you know, since late 2015. Sometimes it's an economic data point. Sometimes it's a headline with something going on in Theresa May's government, sometimes it's something specific about the negotiations. Are there things that you've seen in this whole Sterling saga that you've like internalized and really gotten to have a good understanding of, okay, it's this type of headline, it's this type of news, this is how the market has historically reacted to this type of thing? Yeah, I suppose from a market reaction standpoint, my take on it was first and foremost against price levels. And that comes down to, for many, you know, technical analysis, I don't derive technical analysis as so many do. For me, looking at a chart, taking all the indicators out, it's just the way my brain works.

It's a nice, lovely graphical representation of what price has done. If I want to drill down and think about why it's done that, that's a different story. but for me, it just paints a neat picture that I can sort of refer back to. The market tends to remember, and it's sort of behavioral psychology, market and its participants have anchor points. The charts for any given currency or currency pair will give you those anchor points beautifully because you look at that and you go, okay, well, I can see that the market's gone there, there, there, there's an increased likelihood that we'll revert at some point to those levels.

to your question with regard how the markets reacted to various headlines and data points and whatever else, what we've seen post, I suppose, after the initial dusted settled and post-referendum and we sort of market came to terms with the fact that, okay, this is now the new reality. All the political stuff, it's been algo and algo warfare. I think human traders haven't really, and because frankly it's not their fault, it's not our fault. there's not enough, you know, substance in any of these headlines or any progress in any of these negotiations that we've seen so far to disseminate any real value and form a firm view that it's going to be a soft Brexit, hard Brexit. It's going to be a transition period of two years, one year, what does it mean post-fact, etc.? What's the bill going to be?

So the headlines, ironically, have only sought to confuse rather than give clarity. And as far as the economic data points, it's been a mixed bag because the prevailing narratives straight after the referendum and the decision was, well, it's all going to hell in a handbasket, and the data's going to turn incredibly negative and increasingly so as time wears on. The caveat to that, of course, is we haven't left. Brexit hasn't actually technically happened. So as markets generally tend to do, they're perpetually optimistic. So spending has carried on as per. Admittedly, that's been at the cost of higher credit. And so credit lines have been overdrawn largely. There's been some decrease in business done because of the uncertainty of what it means once we're out.

So the market as a whole, with regard to sterling, has been more about positioning than reacting to headlines or even data points for that part. And so, I mean, case in point was just the most. recent Bank of England meeting where we heard well in advance the fact that the Bank of England was just hell bent on raising rates. Now, within three or four days of that rhetoric coming out of the Bank of England, the market went from around 129 in cable through to about 136. So the market had priced it immediately. It went long and was sitting well and truly long.

So by the time the decision came around and the actual rates were high, the market sold off because there was nothing more. that they could buy on. Nothing remotely interesting came out of the Bank of England to suggest that there were more hikes to come, that they were positive on the outlook for the economy and the like. So there's a lot to be said for positioning going into and in and around, say, data points or even headlines. And a lot of that is narrative focused and whether the market's buying into a narrative or not. I'm Francine Lacqua, an award-winning journalist, and I've got a new podcast,

leaders with Francine Lacroix from Bloomberg podcasts. I've interviewed everyone from heads of state to fashion icons about the news of the moment. But I've always been curious, who are these people as leaders? I don't think there's one right way to be a leader. Make decisions. A poor decision is always better than no decision.

Listen to new episodes every other Monday. Follow leaders with Francine Lacroix wherever you get your podcasts. Ken, I want to ask you about the Algo point that you just brought up. But before I do, one more question related to the Bank of England stuff and more broadly Brexit. You know, obviously the FX market is where we see a lot of politics playing out. A lot of people have been pointing out that in certain developed markets now in terms of

politics, they're looking a lot more like some of the developing markets. So I'm just wondering, from an FX perspective, does it look like that when you look at DM currencies? are developed market currencies acting more like EM now? And, you know, I'm thinking about that BEO example, for instance. It's a very emerging market when you raise rates and see your currency actually fall, right? Yeah, exactly. And I mean, look, to your point, I think if we are seeing it anywhere,

I'd argue that it's predominantly here in the UK. Other currencies and other sort of G7, G10 currencies, probably aren't experiencing the same level of, yeah, EMF, if you want to call it that. And here, yeah, I mean, you've got an overriding and ongoing political uncertainty that's driving all manner of economic facets and therefore also the Bank of England and their decision process. So the consequence, if anyway, it's predominantly probably in the UK more than most other nations.

I mean, you know, you can argue about what's going on in the US and the like, but you'd be hard pressed to sort of draw a parallel to that to any sort of EEM at the moment. But let's talk about the U.S. for a second. So, you know, when people talk about fair values for currencies, there are various approaches that people take and purchasing power parity across countries. Interest rates spread. So in theory, a country with higher interest rates should encourage currency appreciation. You can look at the relationship of the rates between two countries and the historical currency pair and so forth. is just a ton of politics news. And one of the recurring themes in every market we cover is this sort of discussion about when politics matters and when it doesn't. And it does seem like there's, you know, everyone's lives are just consumed by the politics headlines. You obviously

experience it in the UK, but I would say it might even be more so in the U.S. where, you know, our president makes major headlines daily. Has this changed the game or is it the kind of thing where the trick is to just focus on the stuff that works and to tune politics out? It's not that it's changed the game, because ultimately, politics have been around for, well, as long as markets and currencies have been around. It's just that in recent times, we've seen the noise that emanates from the political sphere become ever louder. Now, that doesn't mean that there's any more substance. It just means that that signal is a lot louder. As a consequence, it just means, at least for me, drowning a lot of that out.

not disregarding it entirely, obviously keeping abreast of the developments and the implications of those developments, but also not necessarily buying wholeheartedly into those headlines. Because I mean, you know, we saw during the Euro crisis way back when that, you know, you would have a headline come out and then literally 30 minutes later a headline coming out, refuting that from the same source and so on and so forth. And that, for me personally, still burns fairly bright in the memory. And also, it lends itself to me believing that, yeah, there's just a lot of noise. So if you start buying into all of that, you're only going to end up running around in circles and not really get to the bottom of forming a view, a thesis, or, you know, or anything tangible on the

back of it. Okay. So there's a lot more noise than there used to be in terms of actual news flow. What about the market structure itself? How has the world of FX trading actually changed during your career. You mentioned, of course, algorithms, lots of hand-wringing over high-frequency trading in equities. But of course, there have been some noises about HFT and machines in FX as well. Yeah. I mean, look, how it's changed over my career, I mean, well, it's changed massively, obviously, so we won't go back into ancient history. But look, I suppose in recent years, what I've personally noticed is a real dath of liquidity. And a lot of that stems around bank prop desks and money made, market makers rather, being shut down or limits significantly

decreased. A lot of the banks that were large providers of liquidity, as well as some of the, you know, larger hedge funds because ultimately they also were a source of liquidity have either turned into family offices or perhaps shut down, reverted client funds. The banks have internalized a lot of their flows, so there are no more prompt desks. So there are no more prompt desks. So there are no more, you know, real market makers, as it were, as I was back in the day. And a lot of it is just driven by quoting a price, getting the deal, and then backing it out immediately. So if you're not as a bank or even, say, hedge fund, or whoever it may be, prepared to actively go into the market and hang out a price, get hit on that price,

and then deal with the consequences, then you're decreasing the liquidity pool and you are really taking something away from the market. As a consequence, Vol is incredibly depressed. It was interesting actually, beginning of this year, probably the first, certainly first few weeks, but actually maybe even the first couple of months, I stumbled across something that was quite interesting that intraday realized Vol and so the G7G10 pairs

was trading with probably anything north of about a 14 handle, realized or rather implied, weekly vol was south of about an eight handle. So basically you'd have these intraday spikes on God knows what else, probably a lot of it caused by a lack of liquidity. But then if you look at it at the end of the week, you pretty much started where, or rather you finished where you'd started. So that makes things very messy. That messes with the minds of people like me in terms of how to position, how to deploy risk, where to put stops, and how to size in and out of trade. So that That really has made things, I suppose, interesting, the polite way to put it, but certainly a lot more difficult.

It's changed the playing field, if you will. Does that speak to what you were saying earlier about the prevalence of noise? Yeah, very much so. Very much so, because if I'm sat there, as we spoke about earlier, rather, short of Sterling Ozzy, and all of a sudden, you know, a headline comes out that, well, no, the referendums off, or things are going to be rosy or whatever, and yet inherently you know that that's just nonsense. And the market spikes. Well, you're either carried out on that spike,

even though 40 minutes later it's going to reverse, or you just have to hold your metal and think, okay, well, this is just noise. And, you know, so some truth will come out of it within the next X amount of time and things will revert. So, yeah, I mean, it really makes things more interesting. Let's put it that way. Ken, I have a question.

I feel kind of bad asking it. forgive me in advance, but I have to, Bitcoin. I would like a currency trader's take on Bitcoin. Yeah, let me, I suppose let me preface my answer with telling you this. I'm old, and I've been at this for a very long time. And to answer your previous questions are how things changed, there's now something called Bitcoin and cryptocurrency and stuff like that and hashtags. and I don't know.

I mean, that's the honest answer. I don't know. I don't have enough of a, I suppose, just an inherent curiosity to find out more than I already know, which is nothing. And as a consequence, my interest levels in exploring this, yeah, I mean, they're verging on negative, to be honest. I respect that answer because I feel like everyone these days has to have some really strongly held view.

Here's my question. So we know what a success in theory looks like for a stock manager, and most of them want to beat the S&P 500 or some index. Or maybe a hedge fund, their goal is to provide some, you know, risk-adjusted return that looks really good over a complete cycle or whatever. What defines success for a currency trader like yourself? Good question. Yeah, look, ultimately we're all in it, you know, irrespective of the underlying instrument, we're all in it to make money, generate returns for clients and the like. So ultimately, the higher, the better the alpha, the better the result and the more satisfied you become. For me, and this sort of also goes back to what we initially started speaking about in terms of relative trades or the relativity of FX. I deliberately try and find legs to trade against that will allow me to sleep at night. Now, I don't get much sleep at night as it is, and it's a little bit more than it used to be, but what I mean by that is that I look for volatility-adjusted returns.

So I will look to pick what is conceivably say a boring leg to express a view against, as opposed to something that within three hours might generate an outsized 3, 4, 5, 7% return, but over, you know, instead I'd look for something that over, you know, two months will give me the same, but it just means that I'm not exposing myself to just inane market movements because, you know, North Korea decides to launch a nuke or whatever it may be. So, yeah, I mean, that's, for me, that's how I measure, first and foremost, you know, alpha generation, secondly, if I can generate volatility adjusted or just smooth returns. The other side of it is, of course, if you look at, which I do regularly, the Parker Global Index, that's just nonsense.

I mean, FX dedicated funds, you know, all, what, seven of them that even exist anymore these days, are returning maybe north on a good year, maybe north of about 2.5%. And that's not amazing, really, especially when you look at obviously everything else that's going on, not least to which the S&P. but again, it's all about choosing what your benchmark is and how you deem success to look like. All right. Ken Vexler, CIO of Accumen Management. Thanks so much for joining us. Been a pleasure. Thank you. So, Joe, amazingly, after that, I feel a little bit better about currencies. So are you going to approach currency stories with enthusiasm now, or do you still retain your skepticism? How about this? I'll give it a try.

I will try, but the first person who tells me that my story about sterling is actually about sterling against yen or something else is going to be in trouble. They're going to be on your wrong side. They're going to get it. I thought that was incredibly useful, the whole currency frame, or the Sterling framework that he used. And, you know, thinking about from event, okay, we get this announcement of a referendum to then start, okay, well, we need to express a.

view and then, well, what is the currency against which you have to express that view? I found that to be a very sort of refreshing explanation of how you go about, you know, just beginning to think about a trade. Yeah. And to your earlier point, it does sound like a really interesting intellectual exercise to try to identify that other currency to trade against. The other thing I liked was the idea of, you know, currencies eventually reverting to a sort of longer term trend, that there's some sort of anchor out there that can help you make sense of the world. I think that's useful for me, especially because when I think FX, I think, you know, even though volatility is quite low by historical standards, it's still a pretty volatile asset and things

tend to jump around, at least in the short term. Yeah, and that was particularly interesting, and I hadn't realized that until he said it, about the gap between intraday volatility and slightly longer term. volatility. And so the idea that, yeah, if you look at a big picture chart, volatility looks dormant, but then you get these days where some headline causes a currency to Whipsaw, and you might not be able to hold your trade even a few more days. You might just get totally taken out of it. And that being an interesting expression of the times, which we certainly, in all of the markets we cover on a day-to-day basis, are always marveling at the gap between

the headlines that are out there which seem quite provocative and the lack of volatility and how at least in the currency market, that sort of disparity really shows up in the data. Yeah, so at least the currency market is kind of behaving as one might expect it to. For brief periods of time and then it goes back to not mattering anymore. Yeah, that's the caveat. All right. Well, this has been another edition of the Oddlots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.

You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Wisenthall. you can follow me on Twitter at the stalwart, and you can follow Ken on Twitter at Ken Vexler, but A, we should warn you, he might use profanity, B, he might use slang that you're going to have to use a dictionary to look up, and C, his Twitter account is locked. So if you try to follow him, it's just a roll of the dice whether he'll let you, but hopefully he does because he's great on Twitter. So check him out. It's worth it.

It's worth it. It's worth it. He's great. Victorian insults alone. Give it a shot. And don't forget to follow our producer Sarah Patterson on Twitter at Sarah Pat with two teas. Thanks for listening. You can get the news whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now.

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