Odd Lots - Why Everyone's Talking About the VIX and 50 Cent

Episode Date: June 2, 2017

For the past few years, everyone in markets has been talking about nothing. Market moves have been subdued and the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, recently sank to its lowest in about three decades. We speak with Pravit Chintawongvanich, head of derivatives strategy at Macro Risk Advisors and an expert in volatility. He explains what the VIX actually measures, why it's so low, and how betting against sharp moves in the market became one of the hottest and most lucrative trades around. We also talk about "50 Cent." That's not the rapper, but the mystery buyer who's been bucking wider trend and buying volatility protection at a consistent clip.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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for small and middle market businesses. Learn more at CIT.com. Put knowledge to work. Hello and welcome to another edition of the OddLots podcast. I'm Tracy Allaway. And I'm Joe Wisenthall. So, Joe, we've been talking and writing about this a lot, which is kind of weird, because essentially we're talking and

writing about nothing. Like, nothing is happening in markets, at least when it comes to a very specific measure of volatility. Yeah, it's definitely, it's kind of like the Seinfeld markets, I guess, right? Where the thing that's going on is that nothing is going on. That's good. That's good. I like that show. I just made that up. But no, you know, we've talked. We've talked. about this on this podcast before, how we have this, you know, we have a morning call that you and I participate on, that you lead very ably, I might add, where we talk amongst our many of us in the newsroom about what's going on in markets. And every day it's like, kind of not much. Yeah, every day the story is usually about how nothing is actually moving that significantly

in markets. And the thing we look to when it comes to gauging market movement or market volatility is, of course, something called the VIX Index, which occasionally gets called things like Wall Street's Fear Gage. A lot of people take issue with that name. The VIX is one of these sort of technical things in markets that seems to have some popular currency. There are probably people who are sort of tangentially aware that this thing called the VIX exists. But there's a lot of debate about what it really is. Most people probably have no idea how it's measured. whether it really signals anything useful about anything at all. And so in addition to being widely quoted and widely discussed, it's also extremely controversial.

Right. So today we are going to dig into all the details about the VIX, how it works. But we're also going to dig into why market volatility is so low as judged by this one measure. And I'm not talking about things like, oh, well, we have good economic growth. So people are, you know, relatively comfortable with their investment positions. I'm talking about the actual market for trading volatility because in many ways, volatility is now an asset class in and of itself. Right. This is an important concept that a lot of people talk about. But a lot of these things are not particularly well understood. What does that mean that volatility is an asset class? Or more specifically, what is volatility itself? What, you know, we throw the word around a lot, but I doubt a lot of people really have a firm grasp of what that is.

So I'm confident that our guest today is going to help us clear away the smoke on all these topics and actually shed some light on what can be a very confusing subject. All right. Well, let's get into it. Our guest today is Prophet Chinta Wang Banich. He is head of derivative strategy at macro risk advisors. and he writes about volatility on a basically every day. Provet, thanks so much for joining us. Thank you for having me. So, Provet, let's start with Joe's question, because I think that's the big one and it's the right one to be asking, what exactly is volatility? So when people talk about volatility, they're either referring to what we call implied

volatility, so that's essentially the market cost of volatility or what's sometimes called realized volatility. or in essence, which is how much are markets actually moving? So the VEX, which you guys have been discussing, is a measure of implied volatility. It's a measure of what people are willing to pay for volatility or essentially, you know, it's the markets gauge or measure of the cost of owning volatility. Let's dive into that a little bit more, that specific question. So volatility intuitively is it just a measure of the degree to which markets are going up

and down. So it's not necessarily a directional idea. But if you imagine a sort of oscillation or you imagine a sort of one of those EKGs that measures your heartbeat, it's a kind of a measure of how dramatically the line is just moving. Absolutely. And another way that volatility can be measured or another thing that it measures is the potential for large moves. So for example, you know, head of the U.S. elections or head of the French elections, he also had volatility rise a little bit, not necessarily because people are expecting high volatility, but maybe because they're expecting one large move from a future event. So break it down for our listeners, what does it mean to be long volatility and what does it mean to be short volatility? So what does it mean to be long volatility?

It's a really interesting question. You know, people often talk about buying volatility. Like they see the VIX at 11 or 10 or 9 or, you know, God knows how low it's going to get. And they say like, oh, I want to own volatility. That seems like a really good trade to me. But the thing is you've never really own volatility. You know, I like to say you can't own volatility. You only rent it. So what that means is that how do you go out and buy the VIX? Well, you can't just go and go to the store and buy one share of VIX and that's that, right? In reality, volatility is traded through option contracts. And that's really, I guess, the key to understanding volatility trading is it's linked to options. Options are time-limited contracts. Every bet on volatility is

implicitly time limited. Our listeners are very, very smart. But nonetheless, I sometimes think it's, you know, I would never want to insult the intelligence of our listeners who are the smartest of all podcast listeners, clearly. But just to really simplify this, you talk about options and they're time limited. So they're essentially, an option is essentially a bet that an underlying asset, we're talking about a stock here, just to keep it simple, will hit some level by some time. And if volatility is higher, then that makes it more likely that that underlying asset can travel to that point. So if we have a share of IBM and we are betting that it's going to go from $100 to $125, in theory, the higher volatility is the more likely it is it will travel that

distance in that defined area of time. It will move 25%. And so to own volatility, And to go long volatility, what you essentially do is you're betting that, you know, these options will rise in value because the underlying assets will travel to these points faster in time. Is that sort of the idea? That is a really good way of explaining it. So to get back to Trace's questions, how do you own, how do you, how do you, what does it mean to be long, volatility or short volatility? Yes, buying options is one way to do it. When you trade an options contract, there's something which is called the implied. volatility you can think of this again as the market's expectation for future volatility that's that's priced into these contracts when you when you pay I don't know a couple dollars for an S&P put option there's implicitly a volatility that you're paying right and that is how one goes long volatility but I think you know I don't I want digress but I think a very important concept is that

because options are time limited the the concept of decay or rent or burden will carry cost, whatever you want to call it, is factors into being long volatility, and that's super important. In other words, if I buy a put option on the S&P, so in other words, a contract that will pay out if the market ends below a certain level at some point in time. If the market never goes below that level, then I just lose my money on the put option. And, you know, if I want to be long volatility, essentially one way of doing it would be to constantly buy these put options, but the market never sells off, and I'm just going to keep losing money on these things. So in order to be long volatility, there is a carry cost, right?

We know that the VIX can never go to zero. Options can never be worthless. Therefore, there's always going to be some carry costs for every day that I'm long volatility or owning the VIX. I'm paying away a rent or a decay. And that's key to understanding volatility trading. Likewise, if I'm short volatility, I'm actually being paid rent. I'm earning carry. That leads quite nicely into what I was going to ask next, which is given that you have this carry cost when it comes,

to buying volatility or renting volatility, as you put it, walk us through the ecosystem here. Like what kind of players are actually buying and what kind of players are actually selling? So traditionally, and if we think about option contracts, traditionally the buyer of volatility is going to be like institutional asset managers, like hedge funds who want to protect their portfolio. So, okay, let's say I own, I don't know, a billion dollars worth of stock, well, how can I protect it or how can I outperform the market and justify you investing in me versus going investing index funds? Well, one way to do it is for me to own hedges, right? For me to say, for example, own put options on the S&P so that the next time we get 2008 or 2011 or some kind of, you know, market volatility event, I will outperform in the event of a sell-off. So that's been the traditional buyer of volatility is essentially, you know, think big asset managers.

There's also like insurance, like variable annuity programs that need to pay out a certain amount, though those people are often implicit buyers of volatility. But that's kind of traditionally been the institutional bid for basically financial protection or financial insurance. And then the sellers? So the sellers of volatility have typically been the banks, like the dealers, right? So if you're hedge fund X and you want to go buy options, then you quote up your dealer and say, okay, I want to buy these put options and they'll more than likely be happy to sell them to you.

But I think what you guys are getting at is the concept of volatility as an investable asset class. And especially post-2008, you know, with new regulations, banks actually can't take as much risk as they used to be able to. A lot of that volatility selling risk has now been laid off to, I guess, other people on the buy side. So before, whereas it would mainly be, I guess, like the dealers taking the other side of all these financial insurance bets, a lot of times now it is other biocide institutions coming into basically, you know, instead of investing in stocks or investing in bonds or what have you, they're basically becoming sellers of insurance. and that's how they, you know, deliver their alpha. Now, we started off the introduction by talking about how volatility is very low, how every day we have these chats about what's going on in the market. Well, there's nothing going on in the market.

You've been, you've spent a career trading derivatives and analyzing volatility and all this stuff. So what do you tell us, characterize the current market environment, put it into perspective relative to what you've seen so that when we tell our listeners, Oval is very low these days, what does that actually mean? How does it compare to six years ago, 10 years ago, 20 years ago, whatever? Well, you can look at the VIX, and I think, you know, I'm not going to get into how the VIX has been poorly understood, but essentially the VIX is a measure of short-term options pricing.

That's really all it measures. I don't think it should be used to measure, you know, fear or, you know, like, economic economic, you know, whatever. It's just really a measure of short-dated option prices. And if we look at the VIX, it's really back to 2014-2007 levels, kind of like mid-2007, early 1990s levels. If you look at Realized VAL, so how much stocks are moving, I think that's really interesting. Because I think this is probably the longest stretch of Realized VAL. of low realized well we've had since, I want to say, like, the early mid-1990s.

I mean, it's one thing for volatility to be low for like a week or two, but it's another thing for volatility to be low for like six months at a time or one year at a time. And we really haven't seen this, I guess, since the pre-crisis period and also since the early 1990s. And I think the common thread there is really that if you look back at those two other low-volve-volve-old periods is that the Fed was hiking rates. And do I think that the Fed hiking rates causes low volatility? No, I don't. I think it's coincident. I think the Fed hikes rates when the economy is good. When the economy is good, realize all tends to be, inequities tends to be a little bit lower.

And I think that ultimately then leads into implied while on the VIX being lower. I want to take a quick break for a word from our sponsor. Put knowledge to work and grow your business with CIT. From transportation to health care to manufacturing, CIT offers community. commercial lending, leasing, and treasury management services for small and middle market businesses. Learn more at cit.com. Put knowledge to work. And we're back with private chintang Vonich of macro risk advisors. You know, there was something that you said that was very interesting in the first half where you talked about how a lot of the

vall sellers these days are people who, you know, it's kind of an alternative to straight up investing. And so that you have some of these people who might have been portfolio managers, is now making money selling vol. And in a sense, a diversified portfolio is a short wall strategy without buying derivatives so that if a typical person, they have a portfolio of stocks and bonds and commodities and it's an attempt to smooth out the cycles and the fluctuations of markets, that is a de facto short voles strategy. And so the idea of actually selling VOL explicitly shorting volatility is kind of not that different from traditional investing. Oh, I 100% agree. I mean, if you look at the if you look at the payoff profile or kind of the

distribution of returns for being long stocks or, you know, or long bonds or like long, let's say like long carry, the carry trade in FX. It's all very similar to being short volatility. I think being short vol is just a more explicit way of assuming that risk. But yeah, it's. It's all the same risk. I mean, if you're, if you're like a credit manager, you know, who buys high-yield bonds, you're implicitly shorting vol just through the fixed income space. Or even if you're just long stocks, I mean, you're implicitly short vol. I mean, you get 2008, you get 50% drawdown.

I mean, that's not really that much different from shorting ball. Wait, let me take the other side of that argument because I have seen critics who have said, We have all these new sellers of volatility in the market. Some of them have called them tourists in the volatility market. And the argument that they sometimes put forth is that this might be kind of patronizing, but they say these guys aren't experts. They might not know what they're doing when it comes to selling ball using specific, you know, options instruments, that sort of thing.

Do you think there's any basis for that? I think there's some basis to it. I think it's been maybe a little bit overblown. In general, the people who sell VAL are quite careful about doing it. It's one of the words. I think people who sell VAL generally, they generally like to size things based on a worst-case scenario. So if you make a living selling VAL, then generally you're always thinking about, well, okay, like what if the next 2011 happens or August 2015 when you remember on the Monday when markets were down, I don't know,

5% of basically no reason. The doubt crashed, I think, 1,000 points at the open. Exactly. Spooze were a limit down overnight. You're always thinking about those type of events, and I think that's how you size your risk. So if it falls very low, then you're going to keep in mind that VAL has a much larger, much more room to rise, and you're going to implicitly size down your beds. But I do think there could be something to be said for just more people or more different people who normally wouldn't be looking at VAL so closely, kind of getting into the short VAL game. Yeah, I think there is some risk for that.

And I think you've seen it in the dynamics of VAL. Like, if you look at just how quickly the VIX can spike from low levels and how quickly it reverts back down, I think that there's something to be said for kind of, I guess, money that's quickly coming in and out of the space. So, yeah, I think volatility of VAL itself has kind of, of risen and I think it it could be partially due to just short vol becoming a more popular strategy now all right we talked about how how cheap vol is or how low vol is and so I think that

naturally raises the question well is this a good time to buy protection I'm not going to ask you to make a call right now but I but thinking about that okay so volatility is cheap it's you know there seems to be a mood of sort of complacency, perhaps suggested by the low volatility. But as you pointed out, you can never really buy vol. You can only rent it. So it's not like you can just lock in these prices and forget it. So what does that mean for someone who's like, yeah, I'm pretty optimistic, but vol is cheap here, so I'll just buy some to protect myself. Does that kind of thinking work? I think it tends not to work. I think the smart way to think about buying

protection is to budget for it in advance. So in other words, you're thinking, okay, I'm, I'm willing to pay, you know, I'm willing to pay X percentage of my AUM on protection. And to think about this in advance, right? So think like, okay, I'm going to buy some protection and I'm willing to lose, I don't know, 50 bips on this, this year. I don't really think it makes a ton of sense to buy VAL just because it's low, because, I mean, we've done a lot of kind of studies on this, and we found that actually VAL being low is a good predictor of VAL being low going forward. So it's a good predictor of itself. And you can end up kind of getting burned on this carry cost for a very long time.

So I think that's the danger is that you end up getting stuck into a trade that you never kind of budgeted for to begin with. But there's something to be said for just that, you know, the beginning of the year or the beginning of the court deciding, okay, I'm going to spend X on protection this year. I think that makes a lot more sense than buying ball just because it's low. Okay. Well, speaking of buying protection, there has been, I guess, something of a celebrity created in the volatility market, and that has to be a person known as 50 cent. Is it the rapper? Yes, we are now going to talk about early 2000s hip-hop Joe.

No. The reason he's called 50 cent, he or she, is because they've supposedly been buying, you know, these roughly half a dollar each clips of Vick's call options on a regular basis. And people started noticing it. Provet actually, I think, was one of the first, if not the first, to really write about it. Provet, why did 50 cent become such a talking point in the market? It's a really interesting question. I think, firstly, the name, honestly, it is a catchy nickname.

But just like among traders, so among people who watch this space closely, it was quite fascinating to see such, honestly, such huge flow and outright Vicks call by, and we've never seen for years. I mean, we had seen people main buying calls spreads or trying to limit their, you know, limit the premiums they pay. but for someone to just come in and just repeatedly just buy these VIX calls. And, you know, when you trade like that, everyone knows it's you, right? Like people come up with nicknames about you.

So for someone to just come out and outright, just always, every single time, buy 50,000 VIX calls for 50 cents, I don't care what strike, just pay 50 cents. That's very unusual behavior. So that type of trading, that type of flow, it just definitely gets noticed by market participants. Is that a good idea? Is that a good strategy? Is there a type of investor for whom it makes sense to just have this permanent bid in? Yeah.

I mean, it makes sense for someone who wants to own protection. Do I think that's the best way of owning protection? Well, probably not. I think there's maybe more other things you could, there's other ways you could go about trading and maybe be less obvious about it as well. But this is definitely not like some kind of doomsday trader. I guess that's kind of what I've seen in a lot of the articles going around as people trying to paint it as, you know, that makes it sound more exciting. But in reality, it's probably just, I think, like a large sovereign wealth fund or institutional asset manager that's executing a hedge for their book. So they definitely have something else against it. Like maybe they're just long stocks or who knows, maybe they're actually short, ball in massive size. And that's their tail hedge. And just to be clear, when you say it's a VIX call, that means it's a option tied to the VIX.

Correct. In other words, if the VIX should go above 20, I think that's been his average strike, then they'll pay out. We have time for just one or two more questions. Tracy, don't you want to ask your question about whether the VIX is broken? You've just handed me a loaded grenade. Okay. Yes, I have a question. If the VIX is pervasively low, despite what are ostensibly a lot of concerns in the market, and despite I, you know, we do see some abrupt moves in various asset classes every once in a while. Does that mean the VIX is broken? And also, sorry, let me just add one more thing onto that question because that's not enough for you. The proliferation of products, exchange traded products tied to the VIX, there's some criticism that those specifically are basically creating a feedback loop to the VIX,

which is artificially suppressing it. in some way and increasing volatility of volatility, as you pointed out. Is there any logic in those claims? Both very good questions. Let me just address the first part. Do we think the VIX is broken? So this is really something we've seen a lot more attention

paid to people kind of contrasting the low level of VIX with the high political uncertainty. It's mainly a political uncertainty that people point to, but there is a little bit of economic uncertainty out there as well. I think the important point to remember is that the VIX only measures short-term option price, short-term option prices, specifically over the next 30 days. So do we think something's going to happen over the next 30 days? Well, maybe not.

We don't know the exact timing. We don't, you know, there's now been a special counsel appointed to investigate Trump. I mean, who knows when the next memo or leak is going to hit, but we don't know the exact timing of that. And so that makes these short-term bets on volatility very expensive. And people don't want to own short-day protection for that reason because most likely it's going to expire worthless. You know, the rent is super, super high if you try to trade short-term ball. So I think that's the reason why the VIX is maybe a little bit lower than people think it should be is because it's a measure short-term vol and this uncertainty that people are worried about is more general.

It's a more long-term uncertainty. Do I think long-term vol? You know, that's another tangent in itself, but do I think long-term ball is too low? I think it's approaching low levels. And look, I think it's worth buying. at something I've been writing about that people should maybe look at owning long-term ball because that's really where you get the uncertainty premium. That's where uncertainty premium should be priced in as maybe like one year volatility

or even longer than that. So I think that's where people should be looking. The short-dated stuff is just really going to be affected most by that high carrier or rent costs that we've talked about. And it's so hard to time this stuff in the very short term. So your next question about exchange-traded products, I think that those have kind of been the primary vehicle for for the so-called vault tourists to enter the space. So in other words, exchange traded products like the XIV or the SVXY, these are ETFs,

which essentially will go up, will increase in value when the VIX or VIX futures decrease. And they're basically going to be implicit recipients of that carry cost. So yes, we have seen a lot more interest in those products and probably from people who don't know with that much about vol trading. And, you know, this is getting a little bit too technical, but yeah, like, due to the way these kind of lever products have to rebalance themselves at the end of the day, they can contribute to high volatility in the VIX itself. And I think that's the main change you've seen as these products of gain traction is really

that the VIX itself tends to spike much, much more rapidly and also come back from high levels much more quickly. I just want to make one really quick observation and ask a very tiny question. before we go. So the XIV, which is that short VIX, ETF, betting, shorting volatility. Since late 2010, it's up nearly sevenfold, whereas the S&P itself hasn't quite doubled. So shorting of all has been extraordinarily profitable trade, even if you're just a tourist and do it through an exchange traded product. Provich and Tewongvinich of macro risk advisors. Fascinating

topic, great perspective. Really appreciate having you on. on. Thank you. So, Joe, I don't know about you, but I will never call the VIX the fear gauge ever again. I probably will just because I'm not like that sophisticated. And when you're on, I say stupid stuff. But no, I think I'm pretty disciplined about A, not calling it a measure of fear. I try not to say cliches like, oh, it's really scary, how complacent everyone is. That's a sign that everything is going to fall apart. I think I don't fall into some of the obvious VIX traps, but I'm sure I fall into many. Yeah, but it is, it's a really good discussion to have because so many people point to the VIX and say, oh, you know, like, markets are complacent because the VIX is at a 30-year low, and they never really have the conversation about what's happening both within and around VIX. And as profit was pointing out, a lot has changed over the past six or seven years, right? Yeah, I think there are two really sort of important things that I took away. One is just this idea that, well, you know, the VIX is low because volatility is low. Volatility is low because, you know, sort of the general environment. So it's not necessarily the VIX per se saying something, but it's the overall market. But I love that discussion about this, that you sort of, you know, you know, asked about the structure of volatility markets, who are the natural.

buyers, who are the natural sellers, how have the natural buyers and sellers changed with some of these opportunities for vault tourists? I think that is sort of an incredibly important topic that I imagine we'll be talking about a lot in the future. Yeah, but Joe, I do worry about, I guess, the tail wagging the dog here, right? And the idea that you do have products, lots of products that are now tied to this one index that seem to be affecting it, either by suppressing it or on days when the VIX starts moving up by making it move up faster than it otherwise would. That worries me a little bit. Maybe I'm like 50-50 on this question. So I think there's probably stuff lurking out there

in the market that one day, you know, we could have more events like August 2015 or, you know, God forbid, October 1987, where we have these automatic things in place that exacerbate moves rather than curb them. On the other hand, I think stuff's quiet because stuff's quiet. And every day we look at what's going on, the S&P 500 or the Dow, and it's up two points or down two points. And so in light of that, it feels very intuitive that we're not seeing any sort of signs of life and volatility markets. But your general idea that there could be things under the surface that if the coil springs that will accelerate the moves rather than curb them, I think is a pretty legitimate worry. And I think it's worth pointing out that, you know,

we're recording this podcast several days before it, uh, it's actually going to air. So who knows, we could be in a complete, by the time people are listening to this, we could A, be in a completely different volatility regime. We may have even, uh, jinxed this low volatility period. So that's That's your insurance policy, Joe. You are literally buying volatility protection on the podcast right now. That's exactly right. I have just essentially bought a de facto, de facto fix contract on the podcast to guarantee, to hedge against this podcast being worthless. Exactly right. All right. That is it for this episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Holloway. You can follow me on Twitter at Tracy Allaway. And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me on Twitter at the stalwart. And you should follow our fabulous producer Sarah Patterson at Sarah Pat with two teeth. Thanks for listening. Put knowledge to work and grow your business with CIT. From transportation to health care to manufacturing, CIT offers commercial lending, leasing, and treasury management services for small and middle market businesses. Learn more at cIT.com. Put knowledge to work. doesn't stop on the weekends. Context changes constantly. And now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all.

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