Off Air... with Jane and Fi - May your chafing turn nasty! (with Niall Ferguson)

Episode Date: May 2, 2024

Fi brings good news, brace yourself! After she finishes discussing nature, Jane and Fi chat naturists, heckling and Echo Dots. Plus, they're joined by historian Niall Ferguson. You can hear Niall's talk 'The World in 2024' on the Intelligence Squared website now. The book club episode will be landing on bank holiday Monday at 9am. You can book your tickets to see Jane and Fi live at the new Crossed Wires festival here: https://www.sheffieldtheatres.co.uk/book/instance/663601 If you want to contact the show to ask a question and get involved in the conversation then please email us: [e-mail] Follow us on Instagram! @janeandfi Assistant Producer: Eve Salusbury Times Radio Producer: Rosie Cutler Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

And he was a bald gentleman, and I did shout, keep your hair on, Inspector Morse. Which I was quite happy with. I just noticed I've got a bad apple there, Jane. It's got a little bruise on it, hasn't it? It has. Could I just start the podcast with some extremely exciting nature news? Yes, OK.

Have you got a theme tune for nature news? No, but there's one in my head right now. Can you sing it? I think it's a delicate, plinkety-plonk. La, la, la, la. That'll do. That's nice. That's very nice. After four years of an empty Swift box, we've now got Swifts in the box. Well, that's nice that's very nice after four years of an empty swift box we've now got swifts in the

box well that's wonderful it is wonderful jane how do you know you have because i came home from work yesterday evening um and it was well it must have been about six o'clock and there was a screechy screechy bird song that i didn't recognize because usually I walk past the hedge with the sparrows, which can be at the turning of dusk, extremely loud. But it wasn't the sparrows. And I looked up and the Swift box is right at the top of the house under the eaves and was put up by Swift box people. It's a special, you know, Swift box plan.

And it's been empty for four years. And there were some little... How much did they charge you for a box that's been completely empty for four years? Well, they don't. You see, it's all part of an attempt to get Swifts more homes in London town. Affordable housing. Yes, it is. Social housing for Swifts.

So they come along and do it for free, and then you're part of, you know, just a generally good thing. So I emailed them this morning that the Swifts had finally arrived. But it is a lovely thing, Jane. It is a really, really lovely thing. Welcome, Swifts. Welcome. Well, welcome indeed. And there is that app which my mum and dad are using, actually.

I think it's called the Merlin app. And you can identify it. It's like a Shazam for birdsong. That's a very good idea and they had a couple of chiff chaffs last week so um but i have warned them that they're increasing a lot of elderly people um and it's rather wonderful to take a real interest in birds i'm not looking at you when i say this um but it's elderly it does mean that a lot of money gets left in wills to the rsbb Well, money that could be coming to me.

Well, you're fine. You're OC loaded. I'd say give it to the birds. But it's an important thing for the elderly person, isn't it? Because one of the first indicators that you might be really losing your hearing is when you can't hear the birds. That's true. I'm just checking.

I have named the right app. Yes. Merlin Bird ID. Okay, that's true. I'm just checking I have named the right app. Yes, Merlin Bird ID. Okay, that's brilliant. While we're talking the natural world, can I just put in just a delight in peonies, which make themselves available. They're a lovely poofy plant, aren't they?

They are just fabulous. And they seem, I don't know much about this world at all, but they sort of arrive around now, don't they? And they start off at being quite expensive and then they just move down in price ever so slightly. Well, you could grow them in your backyard. Can you? I just think they're the most, as you say,

they're just the most explosively beautiful, slightly blousy flowers that really pay off. I mean, they just bring such pleasure. So let's just hear it for Swifts and Peonies. No, because there's a lot of misery in the world well there is so you've got some good stuff around yep you've got to find your joy where you can and often it's in nature nature and science nature and science yes i have got a local news story to bring you though which i think will bring pleasure um a colleague and

friend has been spending a bit of time in the Herefordshire area, and she's been reading the Ledbury Reporter. And let me just bring in people outside the UK who think of England as, in many ways, a sort of idyllic, bucolic, idyll kind of place. This headline will probably lead you to believe that everything is well here. I mean, some deeply challenging things go on in this country. But on the other hand, you also get local newspapers, and I love them, by the way, reporting news like this. The headline is, Approval for Churchyard Shed.

Do you want to hear more? Yeah. A church is going to erect a shed so it can store flower-arranging materials and gardening equipment. Malvern Hills District Council has approved plans by Little Malvern Priory to build a shed in its churchyard. More? Yeah.

Planning and conservation officers felt that as long as the shed is finished in a dark stain and is partially obscured by bushes, it won't have a harmful impact on the Grade 1 listed church. So there we are. As no foundation... No, that's enough. Thank you. so there we are as no foundation no that's enough thank you let's just hear it for local newspapers i can't get enough our local paper at home

was sort of abandoned discontinued some years ago and i miss it dearly well it's i think in most places if you find your local newspaper it will be asking if you want to take it on subscription now because times are so hard. And if you can, then you really should. I wish I could. So I'll just shout out to the Hackney Citizen because they do a very good job too. Can we just start with naturism? And it's a very beautifully worded and very kind email from Claire, but it does make a really important point.

And I think it's Mayor Culper from both of us so here we go. I was really saddened by your bracketing of naturism with flashes and pornography on toilet walls. These are not a continuum of the same thing. I've always thought of naturism as an embracing of the human form in all its many shapes and sizes and an acknowledgement that underneath we are all just people. Growing up as a naturist the human form in all its many shapes and sizes and an acknowledgement that underneath we are all just people growing up as a naturist the human body held no fears for me important when i went to an all-girls school and boys were an alien species and in a world where my daughter will be pressurized to be insta-perfect the perspective i got at her age i think is a healthy one i learned that some people who look great with clothes on look dreadful without and vice versa

i saw scars and wrinkles and i think that it's helping me have a healthy attitude towards my increasingly aged and southerly heading body um and then the rest of the email is about other things which i might say for another time but i really take your point actually claire about the it not being the same continuum but here's an interesting point and you might want to email back about it i really understand why naturism gives joy to the people who do it but if you are causing consternation and a little bit of distress in other people who see you out and about I think that's the bit that might all be part of the same mean, you can say that it's a rather unhealthy fear of the human body. I would understand that.

But also, so the stuff in the toilet walls, we've got another email about that too. It's just so shocking when you come to it without being warned. Yeah, it's the lack of warning that is the issue. Yeah. So I understand that the motivation is completely different. Absolutely get that. For naturists but but what

we're what we're feeling on the receiving end if we're not prepared or part of that kind of um uh what would be the right term you know consenting experience that's is that so different I don't know I don't I'm still boggled by the rules here let's say i i choose to spend this approaching bank holiday weekend discovering naturism in my in my back garden um should i alert my neighbors to this i don't know well i'm you know to put it mildly fee i'm overlooked should i should i tell every single owner of the flats at the back i I don't. I think some of them are Airbnbs. Oh, my God. And not to mention the two families who live by the side of me.

And will someone please think of the Swifts? They come out of the box. I'm really angry I don't have Swifts. I'm going to have to get one of these boxes. Well, just get in touch with the box people. They'll come round and give you a Swift box for free. So, look, let's continue this conversation because it is interesting. And this one is going to remain anonymous, but it's somebody who's been to the same pub on the Hackney

Islington border. And you're right, you absolutely know the pub that it was. By sheer coincidence, also for a friend called Kate's birthday. This was just over a year ago, and I haven't been back since. But something even more disturbing I heard from some male friends with us at the time was that the urinals are shaped like an open female mouth. Yeah, I hate that. That's, oh, God, it's awful. Basically the same as the Rolling Stones logo. If you look at the pub's photo gallery on Google Maps, you can see what they look like, and I did, and of course you're absolutely right.

And our correspondent goes on to say, for some reason the idea of all of the men in the room going to rejoin their group in the pub after urinating into an open woman's mouth makes me feel really horrified and disgusted I don't think I'm being overly sensitive to say it feels degrading would like to hear your thoughts on this especially following a recent conversation I think on the podcast about violent porn on the internet becoming so mainstream are we as women perhaps unaware of how often we are degraded and dehumanized in men's minds on a daily basis and i looked at those urinals and you can picture them yeah i've seen the images and i don't i just don't like it i i don't understand why anybody thinks that that's cool it's not and

i'm with you it's just it's just unpleasant and i think once those things are there in the real world and people aren't banning them stopping them or kicking up a fuss about them there's a slippery slope jane yes slippery slopes are as we are all well aware best avoided uh this is a health and safety podcast um now lots of people will know that i wrestle pretty regularly with technology and I have just acquired an Alexa Dot. This isn't an advertorial, but I just thought I'd mention it. Anyway, things have marginally improved.

I managed to set something up last night, although then the bloomin' thing spent all night changing lights and it was all very bizarre. I don't know what the hell was going on um but i did make a phone call on it i rang my youngest daughter and she said well i can't talk to you i said yes but i'm ringing on the dot and she said yes but i'm making my tea and that was the end of that uh but anyway um it's good to attempt contact but this listener is charlotte in tunbridge welcome charlotte uh dear jane and fee or should i say fi and you'll know why in a minute.

And I think we've encountered this issue before. Jane's mention of doing battle with her new dot yesterday reminded me to write and say, in order to get mine to play your podcast, I have to call Fi Fi. Yeah. It just doesn't work otherwise. No. You have to think Rai with an F and you'll get the pronunciation. It simply refuses to play off air unless I say it this way.

So I'm really sorry. It does happen. It does happen a lot. And there's nothing I can do about it at all. It's just an interpretation. I think you should tackle it. I'm putting it over to you. I'm too busy. Because it's Wi-Fi. And one of the best ever mispronunciations

was we went back in the day on the old mothership we took a programme that I was making for the BBC World Service to the Security Council Chamber at the United Nations and we were doing this incredibly important programme it was amazing

we're the only programme radio programme ever to be made on the floor of the United Nations. We were opening the ECOSOC conference. And I mean, it was just amazing. It was absolutely amazing. So this would have been, gosh, I'm going to say 2015. And we'd invited lots of people who participated in the programme

from all over the world to come and make a special programme. So they were absolutely thrilled. So there was somebody who run a barefoot law campaign in rural Uganda. There was an amazing man who had spent, he had dedicated his life to making sanitation more equal for women in rural India. So it was such an important thing.

It was absolutely amazing to be part of. And there I was in all my pumped up pomposity, just about to go live. I find that hard to imagine. No, picture the scene, Jane, picture the scene. Really, really pumped up. And the General Secretary of the United Nations at the time was Ban Ki-moon,

and he came onto the floor and there was hushed silence. The red light was waiting to go. And he said, we're absolutely delighted to welcome for the first time ever, Fai Glover. Oh, Fai Glover, seriously underrated broadcaster I just had to sit there with my pompous face No, no, it's alright That's a good story So don't worry, you can call me whatever you like

Well, I'll certainly take full advantage We should say our guest in this podcast whatever you like. Well, I'll certainly take full advantage. We should say our guest in this podcast, and it's an unusual one for us, in fairness. It's Professor Neil or Niall Ferguson. I think it's Neil.

He is Neil. But it's spelt Niall. I mean, what's a woman to do? Well, there you go. So I bet he can get through Alexa with both. Yeah, I'm sure he can. He is, I think it's fair to say he's an opinionated

historian. He's extremely popular in some quarters, and let's be honest, quite disliked in others, but it's always worth hearing what he's got to say about things. So that is a wide ranging conversation about all aspects of current life. Although we couldn't talk about the local elections in England and Wales because we're banned in a a slightly bizarre rule, on the day of the elections, you can't talk about them. Well, also, it's anti-Diluvian now because you can be saying whatever you like on the internet or on, you know, the Twittersphere, the Xsphere

and all of that kind of stuff, but just on broadcast, you can't say anything. You can't say anything. You can just say they're happening. Yeah. I don't think this happens anywhere else in the world, does it? I don't know. I don't think this happens anywhere else in the world, does it? I don't know. I don't know.

Anyway, I wanted to mention this, and I suspect it's a subject we'll go back to when we have our email special, which is coming very soon. But it's about relationships which end when you're not married. And I do think this impacts on a lot of people. This email is from a listener who says, you can call me Laurie for the purposes of the podcast after many years as a single mum at the age of 51 i got together with a new partner he moved in with me and

my daughter while we looked for a bigger house in the area we found one together and i worked hard on the refurb and making it a new family home for all of us including his son when he came to visit a decade on having survived the deaths of parents and the Covid years, my partner got restless and unbeknownst to me went back on the apps where I'd originally met him. He came back one day and announced that he wanted me to move out of the house as soon as possible and moreover my daughter, now in her early 20s and renting with friends, was not to return to the house. Up until that point, I'd never wanted to get married as I felt that both our children had been accommodating enough

and could probably live without witnessing the delights of a midlife wedding. I guess I imagined at some point in our early 60s we might just slink off to a registry office. I hadn't thought about my rights other than having some vague notion of being a kind of common law wife, whatever that meant. I wasn't counting on splitting up. I went to a lawyer to understand my rights and it turned out I didn't have any. Despite that 10-year relationship and despite the time, the energy and the graft poured into our home my lawyer told me as i hadn't contributed to the mortgage and there was no record of any financial contribution to household bills i had no right to remain now there's there's various other bits that are worth just mentioning here

and i don't want to paraphrase paraphrase too much but um he'd always refused apparently her partner to let her buy into the house with him. Had she done so... She would have had a stake. Yes, she would have had a stake. So I know, I remember on Women's Hour Days, we would relatively frequently mention this concept. It just doesn't exist in law, common law, husband or wife. It's meaningless. But a lot of people don't know that.

And I think it's slightly confused, isn't it? Because often you will hear of couples who separate having not been married and they do exactly what you would do in a divorce but that's because they have children together. Yeah. So your big difference is whether or not you share a child and then the law does protect you

in almost the same way as it would protect you if you'd been married in the first place but yet without a shared child. i think that's just so painful oh it really is it's really i mean it's financially tough it seems really cruel and heartless obviously we don't know everything that's gone on here and it's a slightly perverse situation when the truth is if you're not sure about a partner you might be better off marrying them or entering into a civil partnership with them, because at least it buys you that bit of protection. Yeah. And that just doesn't seem, is that the situation? It actually is, isn't it?

Well, I think it is. And, but also, wouldn't it be true that you might feel in the early stages of a relationship to be grateful for somebody's generosity? You might see them saying, I'll take care of all of the bills, I'll take care of the mortgage, as actually being a plus. Yeah, and let's face it, it is. Yeah, but then what an unholy minus if it doesn't go right. So, sister, gosh, I mean, i mean we really really really feel for you and i'll tell you what does the email go on to say how things are now bear with me um she just says i know i now know from bitter experience that long-term cohabitation is a risky state of affairs for

older women like myself who have little working life left to recoup financially after separation. She says thanks for your podcast and the contributions of the hive mind. It's been a source of comfort over the last year and a half. In fact a couple of years ago she mentions the House of Commons Women and Equalities Committee did examine this issue and recommended reform of the current cohabitation law to stop a growing number of cohabitants and children being left vulnerable but it was rejected by the government in January. I don't understand why it'd be rejected because the statistics about marriage just show that we're you know we're just sailing in the direction of not getting married. Not bothering with marriage as well. So the law surely has to catch up

with how many more couples there are who are just going to have a team together, no just about it. But there is no just about it, no. And there's no justice either here. I suppose, in a way, it just comes back to that. If you've got doubts, get married. But that's absurd, isn't it?

Well, I think if you've got doubts, just don't hesitate or think it's unromantic or undermining to go and talk to a lawyer. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. We should set up our own law firm. Well, I think we should just set up a lovely great big suburb somewhere, Jane, of all of the people who've been slightly wronged in life but whose company we'd enjoy, they'd enjoy, everybody would enjoy. Like Poundbury, but just for...

I don't want to say distressed gentlefolk, but that was the old-fashioned term, wasn't it? And I quite like it. We just have nice people, Swifts and Peonies. Yeah, we call it Soundbury. Oh, God, that's good for you. I don't patronise. It's good, I like that.

Now, this is a little bit of a pull-your-socks-up as well, and I take your point, it's difficult to put that uh now this uh is a little bit of a pull your socks up as well and i take your point it's difficult to put yourself into somebody else's mind and heart but the only thing i can say as a woman who had her partner and father of her children just pack and leave one february morning is that the pain was immeasurable i can't even find the words to describe it as per your listener story i could and can't ever be in the same room as him i'll be in fear i'll be back to the hopeless and lost soul i was 20 years ago and i'm nearly 60 in brackets best age jane no matter what and so this was our conversation about you know trying to pack it all into a different kind of place for your children's weddings and you know you're right

you can't always understand everybody's experience but I suppose it's just that thought of trying not to lay it on your kids so anyway I'm glad that 60 has turned out to be your best age and we wish you enormous happiness in the future oh this one you'll have some suggestions on this uh further your discussion of boys spreading themselves out over the pavement and menfolk generally man spreading in public places i wanted to tell you about a recent incident friend and i had whilst out walking i should say we're two middle-aged ladies of average build and athleticism we were shocked and appalled to be heckled by a speeding mammal on his bicycle who called out waddle waddle waddle as he sped by. There was

something about the emphasis on the third waddle that made us both gasp in horror. We're not normally dumbstruck but the audacity and rudeness of this guy took our breath away. I still can't think of a suitable comeback several days later. Any suggestions? Oh, that's maddening, isn't it? Well, the hive mind will have some suggestions. Yes, it absolutely will. And Laura says, as my favourite Aussie podcaster and author,

Rosie Waterland would say, why.are.men. Why are men? Yes, why are men? Why are men? Yes. Why are men? Why are men? Yes. Hashtag, of course, not all men. Not all men. We welcome all the kind men.

No, no, there's a... I don't think the kind men, you know, I think the kind men, when they hear something like that, are just as annoyed as we are. I would shout back something like, may your chafing turn nasty. as we are. I would shout back something like may your chafing turn nasty. But I'm

always unable to think of a genuinely quick Richard response in the moment. It's all very well, it coming to you at ten past four, three Wednesday mornings afterwards. That's hopeless. You're quite quick, Richard. No, no, I was. What did I once?

I did once shout abuse. It was a man who challenged me on a crossing. I'm sure I must have mentioned that on the zebra crossing. He felt I was being too assertive with my buggy and entering the crossing at a time when he wanted to cross it in his park's constabulary vehicle. And he was a bald gentleman. And I did shout, keep your hair on, Inspector Morse. Which I was quite happy with.

But it's very rude on the Parks Constabulary and I've nothing against them. I mean, that's another wonderful thing. In our soundbree we're going to have Peony, Swifts and Parks.

Lots and lots of Parks. But no matchers. No what? Matchers. Matcher? I don't think I've ever had a matcher. Well, don't. Honestly, not very nice.

Now, we did have a very sad email yesterday from somebody who'd just experienced a miscarriage and was just as miserable as, by the way, she has every right to be. But this is just from Keith. Keith is a GP, and he just says, the expression, Jane, that you couldn't remember yesterday was, and it is awful, he acknowledges,

very clinical, products of conception is the medical expression which is applied to the D&C operation, which is offered to some, though not all women, who are going through a miscarriage. There's so much awful language around women's bodies and in particular gynaecology. I mean, I always think of incompetent cervix at times like this. It's just so judgmental and wrong. Anyway, Keith says, I'm sure women have got lots more to say on this issue than I have,

but for some years I've congratulated pregnant women after checking that it is indeed good news, but I always give a gentle warning that some pregnancies are just not to be. Not that I wish that on them in any way, but just to advise that they do wait until the 12 weeks to tell people the news, because it just isn't always a given, of course. I'm never sure that this advice is helpful, but I think it's an important risk to be aware of, as well, of course, as the advice to take folic acid. So, Keith, thank you very much. Yes,

take your folic acid. Very good idea. Now to the serious matter of Professor Neil Ferguson, who is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He is a Senior Faculty Fellow of the Belfer Centre for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. This man is a noted and sometimes it has to be said controversial historian. He's also been a research fellow at Cambridge, a professor at Oxford and at NYU. He's also a Scotsman, albeit one who does not live in Scotland. I did, though, ask him who he thinks would be the best leader of the SNP. I can't answer that question.

I'm so implacably hostile to the SNP that I'd like the party to go into liquidation and not have a leader so that a responsible government can be formed in Scotland to set right the things that the SNP have have done wrong over the years. It's good that the failures of the SNP have come to light, but it won't really help if they just carry on. I think they're bankrupt as a party and should simply go into liquidation. And there is no doubt in your mind that Scotland is better governed from Westminster? Well, I think some elements of local government are extraordinarily important throughout the United Kingdom. And one of the problems the UK has wrestled with over the years has been it's not been very good at decentralising. And I think that's a problem

that's right across the UK. What's very clear to me is that devolution, delegating almost all domestic politics to a Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh hasn't worked well. And it hasn't worked well because it essentially gave too much power to a party that wasn't really competent to have that kind of power. So I think the re-establishment of the Scottish Parliament has been a failure. and we can look back and realise perhaps why they got rid of it back at the time of the union of the parliaments at the beginning of the 18th century. Do you believe that it is possible for the Israeli government to defeat not just Hamas, the organization, but the ideology that powers it? Yes. Although, let me qualify that. Defeating the organization is what matters. You can't defeat an ideology. Marxism-Leninism is still around, even although the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. And the ideology of jihadism or Salafism is still around, even though Islamic State has largely been wiped from the map. So the key thing is to defeat and dismantle the organization that has largely been achieved in Gaza,

and I think the job will soon be finished. How do you know what has happened in Gaza, bearing in mind that we have no independent assessment of what has happened there, because reporters have just not been allowed in? Well, it's an ongoing military campaign. I was in Israel six or seven weeks ago and visited the Israeli Defense Ministry, spent a considerable amount of time talking to people not only inside the

government but outside it, including its critics. And it seems pretty clear from the reports that we receive, not only from the Israeli side, but also from the Palestinian side, that there's not much left of Hamas, that most of the battalions have been destroyed and only a few remain. There's not much in the way of denial of that reality from the Palestinian side. There's not much in the way of denial of that reality from the Palestinian side. But the truly diabolical suffering of the many entirely innocent residents of the Gaza Strip, the women, the children, and I'm sure a certain percentage of the male population, have done nothing wrong and we're led to believe that some are near starvation. that some are near starvation.

How can that not be acting as, frankly, as a recruitment benefit for Hamas and for those people inclined to back it? I hear questions like this being asked on the BBC and other UK media almost every day. Well, because it's a question that we do need to ask, don't we? I just remind listeners, war is hell. Nobody's ever pretended that war is anything but hell. Hamas attacked innocent Israeli civilians and inflicted murder, torture, kidnapping on them.

Was the Israeli government supposed to say thanks very much, have a Palestinian state? There isn't a British government that would have sat back and not retaliated if similar atrocities had been carried out against British civilians. Of course, it's extraordinarily difficult to go against an enemy like Hamas. It's not only using its civilian population as human shields, it's got a tunnel network, which makes it formidably difficult to defeat. And although we hear a great deal about the sufferings of the Palestinian people, it's actually striking that by comparison with any comparable battle, the civilian casualties have not been as high as might have been expected.

And the Israeli casualties have been been as high as might have been expected. And the Israeli casualties have been impressively low. And I think future military historians will say that this was a remarkably successful campaign. I know that's not what your listeners want to hear, but that's the reality. Okay. I mean, it's your opinion, Neil, and you, I think, choose not to believe the Hamas casualty figures, and you're not alone in being dubious about them. casualty figures and you're not alone in being dubious about them? Well, I think you've got to understand that Hamas has a fairly well-established track record of saying things that are not true. And what one can see if one looks carefully at the data, and this is based on a US assessment, not an Israeli one, is that over time, the ratio of civilian

to military casualties has come down from, say, two to one to close to one to one. And I think, as I've said, if you compare it with similar battles, and that's from Okinawa back in World War II to Mosul more recently, the results are actually really impressive. Nobody wants to hear that because we're, as a rather civilian society,

inclined to believe that wars can be fought in urban settings with zero civilian casualties and nobody going hungry. But that just doesn't belong in the real world. That's just not how wars are. So can we be clear then? And we've made comparable arguments about other wars, including World War II. And it would be absolutely true to say that the German civilian population and Japanese civilian population suffered terribly in the course of those wars, particularly in the later stages. Should we have made peace with Hitler still in power?

Should we have made peace with the Japanese in power? Should we have made peace with the Japanese imperial regime still in power? No, of course not. So one has to understand the nature of war. Hamas brought this upon themselves and upon the people of Gaza. That's the reality. And because of the actions of Hamas on October the 7th, which were truly diabolical, there is now no possibility of a two-state solution. Is that what you believe? I think the probabilities have gone down. I mean, over time, they've gone down not just since October the 7th. There were opportunities that came out of the Oslo process

for a Palestinian state. I think there was good faith on the Israeli side in trying to make that work. And the terrible reality of the last quarter century is that the leaders of the Palestinians walked away from the possibility of a peaceful Palestinian state and chose the path of conflict. And that's a tragedy for the Palestinian people, because I think there was an opportunity. I think it's now gone. It's really, really hard to find anyone in Israel in the wake of October the 7th who thinks that there's simply no way that you could trust a Palestinian state not to engage in the kind of activities that Hamas has engaged in, not to mention Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Can we talk about Ukraine and the possibility of the re-election of Donald Trump, let's say he is re-elected, and I actually think at the moment you don't think he will be, what impact might there be on the war between Russia and Ukraine? Well, last year,

a lot of people would say to me, wringing their hands, what if Trump's re-elected, the aid to Ukraine will be cut off. Of course, the aid to Ukraine was cut off long before the presidential election, has only just been restored. So I don't think Trump is as critical a variable in this as people think. It was just a shift in the balance of power within the House of Representatives that led to that interruption in U.S US aid to Ukraine. I also am not sure that necessarily Trump's re-election is massively disastrous in the way that people assume. There are certainly elements on the right of the Republican Party and beyond then, that the right of the Republican Party that are pro-Putin and would happily appease Putin and throw Ukraine under the bus. But I don't think those elements will be represented in a second Trump administration. I don't think Tucker Carlson is going to be Secretary of State. If you look at the people who are serious about national security in the Republican Party today, and that would include, say, Mike Pompeo, the former Secretary

of State, or Matt Pottinger, who was on National Security Council with Trump, or Mike Gallagher, the outgoing congressman from Wisconsin, they're hawkish on this issue to a greater extent than the Biden administration. And they're very critical of ways in which the Biden administration has failed to give Ukraine the weapons that it needed to win this war. So I think if you think about who's likely to be in a Trump administration in the key positions of power, it's far from clear to me that they'll pull the plug on Ukraine. They might actually step up support for Ukraine.

Is it, though, just not utterly remarkable, isn't it just remarkable, that after January the 6th, the events of that day,, Donald Trump is now polling more strongly than he did in 2016, which of course was the year he first was elected president. I think it's part of what you might call the Brazilianization of American politics, that being a potential criminal, after all, there's one criminal trial going on at the moment, potentially facing jail time, having been involved in what some people construe as an assault on the Constitution,

you still have a political career. I mean, President Lula in Brazil was in jail. Now he's president. So you could say that it's not so astonishing if you think of American politics as increasingly Latin American in their style. A lot of voters, particularly in Donald Trump's Republican base, feel a certain solidarity with a man who's on the wrong side of the law, with a man who's willing to play fast and loose with constitutional procedures. And I think I've underestimated the extent to which this would not hurt him, and in fact, would become the basis for his return to the front

lines of politics, with at least a 50-50 chance of getting re-elected as things stand. I still have a hunch he'll not make it, but it's going to be very close. And what should President Biden do about the student protests now really turning quite violent on campuses across the United States? Well, in a way, that's not really a president's job unless things escalate to the point of pandemonium. The responsibility for order on a campus is with the university authorities. If they can't cope with it, then it's with the local or state authorities, and it shouldn't really end up on the president's desk. So I don't think that he needs to do anything. I think he could justifiably condemn the antics of students

who've clearly crossed the line from free speech into disruption, violence, and intimidation, even threatening Jewish students, that he should certainly condemn. Well, he hasn't, has he? Well, it's notable that he said nothing on this subject. And indeed, it's a curious feature of the Biden presidency that we get these long periods of radio silence, even when there's clearly a topic that calls for a presidential comment. But the Democrats are terribly torn on this issue, and it's become a real headache for them, because there certainly still, as there long has been,

a significant contingent of Jewish voters who lean Democrat, who feel that the administration has not been supported enough of Israel since October the 7th. And then, of course, on the other side, there are Muslim voters in states such as Michigan who feel quite the opposite. And then a great many young progressive, I don't like that word, but let's call them progressive or woke students who align themselves with the more radical elements of the Palestinian independence movement. And so for the democratic strategists who are running an election campaign right now, this issue is a headache. They can't win. Whatever the president says on this subject antagonizes a significant part of his own party. Do you have a vote in America? Yes. And presumably you'll be voting for Trump, will you? Or are you undecided? I don't think I could do that. After things that I've written and

said, I have grave reservations about Donald Trump as a president. I think that what I said in the immediate aftermath of January the 6th is still true, that it should have been the end of his political career. And I think a great risk is taken when you vote someone like Donald Trump back into an office as important as the presidency. So I don't think I can, with a clear conscience, vote for him. At the same time, I'm not sure I could vote for Joe Biden, who's clearly too old to be president and whose administration has performed really quite dismally, especially in the area of foreign policy, as well as in its economic management. So I will find myself not for the first time in my life muttering a plague on both their houses.

Well, are you also a bit concerned about the possibility of a relatively young vice president having to take over if a re-elected President Biden becomes incapacitated? I do think that the Democrats made a great mistake in making Kamala Harris their vice presidential candidate in 2020, because I don't think she's qualified to be president. And a lot of people are going to vote a different way than if there were somebody more credible in that position. They have decided to forge ahead with the ticket that they now have. And that's, I think, one reason that Donald Trump has a shot at a second term. But yeah, I think there are real question marks over Kamala Harris's competence. And I quail at the prospects of her becoming president if President Biden's re-elected and is unable because of his age and health to continue doing the job. Well, that is the opinion of Professor Neil

Ferguson. And I really am intrigued to hear whether listeners in the US or indeed anywhere else want to take him up on just about anything. But certainly certainly we might get some diverse opinion from Scotland and from supporters of Scottish independence and also from people who think a Kamala Harris presidency wouldn't be such a bad thing. But anyway, you know what to do. You've got a long bank holiday weekend,

certainly in the UK, to think about these matters. So it's janeandfee at times.radio and the Book Club podcast comes out Monday. Yeah, and that's a good one because we've had some great emails including now some critical ones about our book club choice a dutiful boy by mossin zaidi and the book club podcast includes an interview with him so we hope you enjoyed that and we will also then start taking your recommendations for book club book number six which will be a hot summer read

well yes let's not over egg it slightly warmer than we are currently enjoying summer read oh come on sizzle goodbye Well done for getting to the end of another episode of Off Air with Jane Garvey and Fee Glover. Our Times Radio producer is Rosie Cutler and the podcast executive producer is Henry Tribe. And don't forget, there is even more of us every afternoon on Times Radio. It's Monday to Thursday, three till five. You can pop us on

when you're pottering around the house or heading out in the car on the school run or running a bank. Thank you for joining us and we hope you can join us again on Off Air very soon. Don't be so silly. Running a bank? I know, ladies. A lady listener. I know, ladies. The lady listener. I know, sorry.