Off-Nominal - 223 - Not a Friend, But a Customer (with Emilee Speck)

Episode Date: January 9, 2026

Jake and Anthony are joined by Emilee Speck, Senior Content Editor at AccuWeather, to look back at their 2025 predictions, and make a few for 2026.TopicsOff-Nominal - YouTubeEpisode 223 - Not a Friend, But a Customer (with Emilee Speck) - YouTubeFollow EmileeEmilee Speck (@EMSpeck) / XEmilee Speck | LinkedInFollow Off-NominalSubscribe to the show! - Off-NominalSupport the show, join the DiscordOff-Nominal (@offnom) / TwitterOff-Nominal (@[e-mail]) - Spacey SpaceFollow JakeWeMartians Podcast - Follow Humanity's Journey to MarsWeMartians Podcast (@We_Martians) | TwitterJake Robins (@JakeOnOrbit) | TwitterJake Robins (@[e-mail]) - Spacey SpaceFollow AnthonyMain Engine Cut OffMain Engine Cut Off (@WeHaveMECO) | TwitterMain Engine Cut Off (@[e-mail]) - Spacey SpaceAnthony Colangelo (@acolangelo) | TwitterAnthony Colangelo (@[e-mail]) - jawns.club 🐘Off-Nominal MerchandiseOff-Nominal Logo TeeWeMartians Shop | MECO Shop

TLS and go for main engine start. Happy New Year, Anomalies. Welcome back. I'm so excited to be back. I don't know, like the Christmas break. I like having the break, and then by the time this show gets here, I'm like, man, I'm glad we're back here because this is fun. I miss off an anomaly. I mean, there was more space things that happened in our break this time than usual.

That is very true. No pressure, Emily. Emily, when's the last time you've been on the show? It's been, how many jobs ago, was it? like at least at least one i just started a new one like in november so yeah at least at least one but yeah it's probably probably been maybe four four years yeah you can say too long it's okay you won't hurt our feelings yeah it took it's with uh fox i had to get like everything approved through the scary lawyers so it was like yeah and they took one look at us and we're like no

I'm like, we're good. Yeah, I was like, you don't really need to worry about this, but okay. The big media doesn't like us. No. Yeah. If you have free letters in your news organization name, it's not going to be a good time for us. We're going to have a trouble getting through your approvals. Yeah, yeah.

But you're back. You're here now. You've got a new gig, and you're going to kick off our year with our prediction show. This is a fun of. It's a fun one. Yeah, we always have to have these like anchor shows before and after Christmas because we never have enough time or like enthusiasm to like come up with like innovative novel content. So this is the nice formula thing that we can drop in.

It's the hardest one. It is hard in your beginning content is like it's how it's how we make it to February. It's not it's the hardest one and then it's a lot of work, Anthony, but it's zero decisions. I already know exactly what we're going to do. And I just sit down and do it. And it takes me, you know, whatever. So it's not like you have to like call you and be like, okay, well, what kind of content do you want to do? I don't know.

Let's talk about. And then we've like, they make a list of people. Like that's a whole fucking thing. This is just like, done. And specifically, Emily and Brendan are your cozy December and January blanket that you put on. And we haven't done that in forever. That's been at least, at least three years. Because I think I think we did do our like year recap or whatever.

like one year when I was at Fox. Somehow I made it happen, three lawyers in. I was on Jake's buttoned up show with no drinks. With no fun. Yeah. No jokes allowed. No fun. No fun.

No, yeah, but we, I was joking because the show before Christmas, I had Brendan on. So we did the, we did our. Oh, fun. So it was like, yeah, so I was like, I needed both of you back in my life. And so we stuck him on one and you. Aw. Well, we miss you too. I speak for us both.

Like somehow I've been at. for recovering and current Florida journalists. Yeah, yeah. Emily, do you have a drink with you today? You got anything fun? I do. And I have failed on two accounts because I am currently visiting in Florida. As I told Anthony, our Christmas New Year trip was delayed by the flu, Wompwompwomp. So I was hoping to have either a Florida beer or a New Jersey beer. and I went to the grocery store here, Publix, the mecca of grocery stores, if you have never been. And I couldn't find a local beer. And I definitely couldn't find a New Jersey beer.

So I ended up one that with this is, I think this is a Bell's that's Michigan, if I'm correct. And it's the Oberon eclipse and it's raspberry weed. It's very refreshing. Put that up close. That's a good label. Let's zoom in on that. Yeah. It's based themed.

It actually kind of matches my T-shirt. You can't really see it. So that was not intentional. But here we are. So cheers to that. They have good stuff. I like bells. Yeah.

So anyways. But yeah. What do you guys got? A little Midwestern influence on us. For sure. Jake probably made something fancy. Mead? You crack on me?

No. No. This is fun. I've got a... Or is the label here. Other way. I... Yay!

Look at that. It's got a balcony. All right. That's really good Did you go to the beer company for that? No, this one was at a good old Walmart. Oh. Not a full embargo, I see.

Not a full embargo, no. Understandable. Technically Walmart Mexico. It trades on the Mexican stock exchange. Oh, okay. Walmart Mexico does? Okay, good to know. I brought a New Jersey beer, Emily.

I'm not a trader. I brought a tonewood, a tonewood, focus. point. Tonewood. Fun fact about Tonewood, because I recently have realized that my almost neighbor, I think,

Andy Kim, is on like the space subcommittee, and I was like, I probably should try to meet this man, and it turns out his local office is like literally right next door to Tonewood. I didn't go there yet, but I just looked it up on the map. Where is this? And you'll probably tell me, and I'll probably have no idea. Barrington. It's up towards my

neck at the way. Actually, let's take a quick New Jersey map minute, Jake. You got to share your screen for this? No, no, it's nothing you have to do. I just would like to inform you of something quite delightful, which is I live just outside of Philadelphia. You live down the shore. And if you were to draw on a map, I've already prepared this.

I've food networked this a little bit. This is a screen. If you draw a line between our two towns and you zoom to almost the exact middle of our line, we would end up at the Brendan T. T. Byrne State Forest, which is where we need to meet up in the future. That is true. I have driven through that forest many a time. And when I'm on my way to like Virginia or something,

I'm sure I drive, I don't know, I drive by a million little nothing towns. But yeah, we drive by that forest all the time. I know. And I keep meaning to text him and tell him that we have a forest. I've sent him multiple pictures of me in that forest because I like to go ride my bike in it. So don't worry.

that's not where Andy Kim's offices his local offices I thought that map was going to be a little more fun and you were going to map out all the breweries between my house and your house or something but there's not that many no New Jersey brewers are are not a fun place to go because we have a stupid protectionist regulation that does not allow them to sell food at the brewery so it is just I don't know no fun you have to like get around it with food trucks and I don't know you can't depend on that yeah yeah that's true sometimes they don't show up, which is, you know.

There's a law in Mexico that is literally the opposite of that, which is if you serve alcohol at your establishment, you have to provide some free food, not just serve food, it has to be free. So you go anywhere you get a drink, you're going to get a little, little bowl of, you know, tortilla chips and some salsa or whatever. You'll get it. Just without asking. Wow. Because if I have a beer, I need a snack.

Like, I need something. Or else. Oh, yeah. Yeah. We went to a very recently and they had a pretzel place. They were like making pretzels and they were like cash only because the other thing in New Jersey is everyone does cash only. And I'm like, I never have cash because I am not put together human enough to like think about that. And so this lady was like, oh, here, I'll just give you pretzels.

So she like gave us like 10 of these giant stuffed pretzels and then just busted them out on Christmas Day for like an appetizer. when they were so good. I was like, what am I going to do with these pretzels? I'm so glad you're telling the story because if I told that story, I would never hear the end of it. That was the most stereotypical nonsense. I live in New Jersey story of all the time. Not having cash. Not having cash and getting pretzels for free.

We had our daughter with us and she's too and she's very adorable. And so this woman probably took me into account not at all and was like, your child. needs these pretzels, obviously. You clearly can't feed your child. Here are some pencils. You don't have cash and you live in New Jersey. Like, I need to help you. I dream of the no cash days.

That was a good time. Yeah. It's all cash all the time here now. Pay my lawyer in cash. It's like wild. Oh, really? Do you have a Mexican lawyer? Like, is this a?

Yeah. Mm-hmm. Okay. All right. That's another subject. It's a very New Jersey region of Mexico there. You've got. Yeah. Good stuff. But, you know, just saying. All right. So, Anthony, we have to quickly, I wrote on the list,

catch up for last year. I wrote go through these fast because we always get sidetracked. We're going to see if we can catch up and see how we did last year. And then we can get into predicting this year. So I'm just going to read through these. I'll go down one by one. I'll say what I predicted and what you predicted Anthony. Anthony was just me and you last year. We didn't have a guest last year.

But I'll write down. I'll say what I did, what you guessed, and then the actual, and then we can have a quick comment. And then Emily can tell us how terrible. Whoever one was wrong, she'd make fun of us for it. Okay. Skip the boring ones. Okay. What's a boring one?

You'll know when you see it, you know. I don't know where to see it. Okay. The ones where you were wrong. Is that what you're trying to say? Okay. Okay, so Falcon 9 launch rate, the over under was 180. I said under when bullied by Anthony, it says, that's in the notes.

And you also said under and the actual was 165. So we were both right. Look at that. Wow. And I'm in our chicken dinner. Easy one. Yeah. Easy one.

Falcon 9 mishaps over under on 1.5. I said under and you said zero. You said flawless victory. And the actual was one. What was this one? I do not remember. I don't know. It crashed and blew up on the boat.

It was a barge explosion. Yeah. Yeah. But FAA grounded it for a week. But it's not a launch. So could you count it as the 50%? I don't know. Was it a high visibility close call?

Do we ignore those now? I don't know. Oh. No, this was just the booster loss. The rest of the lunch was fine. Huh. I mean, we just have mishaps. Was it declared a mishap by the FAA?

They grounded it. Yeah, they did. Is that the same thing, though? Mishap investigation. Okay. I posted a source right in the craft article for you right there. It does say mishap. All right.

I see it. You can pull it up on your downtime. I say that counts as one if we're going to default to the FAA. So, you know. We'll get back to that. All right. Starship. We had some milestones for Starship.

So reaching orbit, we both said yes, the actual, was no. Payload deployment. We both said yes. The actual was no. Refueling. We both said yes, the actual was no. And Moon, we both said no. So we were one for four on those. Great. Judge Emily, grade payload deployment on this list. Wait, I was going to say, yeah, didn't they deploy some star lengths? I'm trying to think the one test that they had. They made it up door. Yeah. Oh, yeah.

They made it. I mean, okay. Like, I don't know if they actually made it to orbit, but so it was deployed. There was a door that was open. There was something that left. I mean. Wasn't a real payload, but. But for the most bar, you guys.

We could defer to Judge Emily on this. Yeah, Judge Emily, did we get this right or wrong? I'd say you guys got it mostly right. I'm going to give you a nine out of ten. Okay. All right. I agree for what it's worth. It was deployed.

We didn't say stable orbit. We just said to be. Yeah, no qualifications there. All right. We said, will Elon have a giant tirade complaint against the FAA this year? And this is obviously in the context of the Trump administration taking over and his role at the time, which was very prominent at that spot. And I said, no, he will definitely not complain about the FAA because he's in charge now. And the notes here, Anthony, it says, yes, or it says it will involve the deep state.

And I don't know what, I don't know what the context of that was. I didn't watch the episode. I think it was a yes and. Like he didn't have to complain because he basically was the government for the first half of the years. I thought he would complain. And his complaint was that the deep state is in charge of the FAA. Oh, okay. That they are the deep state.

Yeah. No, he didn't really do a lot of complaining this year because, yeah. Imagine that. That's all I'm going to say about that. All right. I'm skipping one of these just because I don't even know what it was. was. And then we'll go to moonlanders.

Okay, we, moonlanders was interesting. We were both very wrong on this one too. So Firefly, Blue Ghost, I said it would not be a full success. Anthony said it would have a hard impact on final descent. The actual was, it was a stunning success.

So Firefly bested us there. Kutow R. We said both of us would make it. It did not. IM2. We said both make it, it did kind of sideways boy again. You're going to have to go like 75% with that one because it did everything but stay upright. That's the issue.

Somehow it felt worse than the first time though. Yeah. It's probably expectation settings, right? Like that's the problem. I mean, just because it was like, I can go on the screen again and do the. Yeah. Yeah. But it's hard.

It's really hard to land on the moon. The space is supposed to be like this. but it was actually a failure rate. That's not great. So, you know. Jake, didn't they use the little 3D printed lander as the rock too, right? I don't think they did that for the first one. I don't think they did that for this one.

For this one, they cut the feed like real quick. It was not. Yeah. And I don't think we got that news conference. Yeah, because I do remember that photo. And this one from my memory did not communicate and return as much as the first one. did for a variety of reasons. We weren't getting a lot of Intel.

So it was worse. It was worse. Okay. But, you know, we're still- No, I'm not criticizing you. I'm just like remembering it was worse for them. Everyone's sake. It was worse. And that perspective, absolutely. You could also make the case that if you have the same error two times in a row, even if they're the same error, the second one is by default worse because you made it again. It just hurts more. It's just, yeah.

Remember that the next time you forget. cash, Emily. Just remember. I will, absolutely, and I definitely will forget cash. I can promise you I don't have any in my wallet right now. Astroforge. This is not Moonlander, but it's close. It's in the same category.

I said there would be a failure on route that cripples the mission. You said it would be a successful flyby of the asteroid. And, oh boy, I was bang on on that one. Regrettably, I was correct. That's a sad one to be right about. And then Anthony said there would be a blue moon shaped something fired at the moon. A blue moon shaped something?

He was coaching his prediction because he didn't know if it was going to be like a prototype or like a scale model or like the real thing. Like what if the demo launch? They just blasted a thing that was like the structural test article or something, you know. Yeah, like a Lego moon. He didn't want to get caught on a technicality. It would have been great if they did a can of Blue Moon. and then I came here and argued it was blue moon shaped. Yeah.

Bummer. I love that for you. New Glenn. Anthony, you said the schedule for New Glenn last year was going to be Mission 1 in January, Escapade in May and the Blue Moon thing in October. And the only prediction I made was that we would fly maybe two, I said. Which we did. Two exactly.

I felt so good. about my prediction mid-year because they were talking up like this one's ready in the spring and we got one hot on the heels and they they held that storyline long enough that I got I was like I think I might have nailed it yeah you're like I did not yeah that landing was pretty impressive I was yeah trying to get my co-workers my new co-workers hyped up about it and I'd literally just started and they're like who is this chick like way too excited about this landing I was like please get into my office radio silence on our Slack channel like no responded.

Who did what? And they were like, okay, cool, whatever. That's really funny. We're a weather company, Emily. Yeah. Yeah. Boeing transaction. We both, Anthony said that Boeing was going to sell their space business last year,

and they did not. Oh, okay. Nobody wants Boeing. There was an article about it, right, that they were shopping it. We didn't just make this up, did we? Yeah. Yeah, I know this was the, and wasn't this also related to, I mean, it's a new CEO and then. Well, there's like the ULA sale and then there was like the Boeing sale.

Yeah, it was like it was like non-SLS Boeing sale, right? Yeah. Yeah. Or non-SLS non-ISS? Yeah, sounds right. All the other things, Starliners and the satellites and. Yeah. But at the end of the day, nothing happened.

So. Yeah. Kind of makes you wonder if that was at all related to the ULA. thing that like somebody was trying to do a little package deal and have the launch vehicle and the spacecraft. Yeah. Tori leaving ULA at the end of the year was definitely a surprise. That probably wasn't on your card for last year.

We did not predict that. No. Doesn't that seem like, I feel like we don't have all the information on that story yet. I have, I have not formed an opinion on it and I have not podcasted about it because I don't know what to say about it yet because I feel like we're still missing. some piece of information. Oh, for sure. Yeah. But I will say that as a CEO, Tori Bruno is probably one of my most favorite CEOs, which I'm probably not supposed to say as a journalist, but because he will always answer questions, like any question. If you get him in a media briefing, like he will

talk your ear off about anything. If you want to know specifics, like he will talk to you about specifics and he will always answer questions. So I don't know. Maybe. Maybe. few. Maybe we'll get to learn something about Blue Origin now. Yeah. I mean, maybe we may get some more information about Blue Origin. Well, to close on that note, I did, to close out a thread from the prior show that we did here, Jake. Didn't I mention this on the show last time that I think so?

Yeah. I think so. I just, I had an interview scheduled with him for next week. And I did not know at the time whether that was still on or not. And it is off. So there goes that. Wow. That has been spiked.

What are you got to say now, Emily? Well, I didn't know, though, because I had been set up in advance. Now I'm going to have to like send him a message on Twitter. Sorry, Elon, I'm always going to call Twitter. And be like, yo, Tori, come on. Answer this question. I was talking you up. Yeah.

Come on. Well, I also feel like he's, I feel like in the last, I don't know what the time frame would apply to this, but several months, there has been a, uh, Tori losing his shine. thing going on. And maybe this was sourced around the time that he was doubting the Raptor 3 imagery. Remember this? Does anyone remember this? When they were images of Raptor 3s and he was like, where's the rest of the parts? And then they, Gwen Schaweil tweeted an image of it firing with that many parts. And he was like, but still, there's all these other things. Like he had very much reply guy energy and that diminished, I think, the Tori Bruno vibes for a lot of people. It did for me.

I felt like there was a turn there. Yeah. But maybe he just haven't seen youritis. I don't know. You're probably not going to get the interview now with Blue Origin. So it's, yeah. We'll see. I guess.

You can make that up for this year. Yeah. Will Anthony land an interview with Blue Origin, Tori Bruno, or not? Yeah. Over under on amount of interviews. 0.5. What do you take? I'm taking the over.

I'm feeling good. I'm feeling like I can go after this. I think this is what's going to do it. I mean, he's going to see this. I don't think I'm getting Tori, though. Yeah, talking about it publicly is obviously the best way to get comms people that are famously shy of interviews to agree to one. I've worked with our whole gambit of bullying Gilmore space to release the video of the fairing deployment.

We were close. We were close. Almost Adam. Almost. Okay, I got a couple miscellaneous ones at the end of the list here from last year still. We had over under on 120 Kiper satellites launched. I took the under. I didn't write down what you wrote, Anthony.

So your guess is you can make it up and it's true. Actual was 180 though. So they knocked out of the park. That's great. Russian failures. The over under was 2.5. Yeah. I didn't write down mine.

Yours says under. I think you set the over-under and I... What are you counting against the failure? Because... Anything. You're the judge. Oh, just anything. Oh, Jake, you didn't have the...

You wrote the leak, but you didn't write the launch pad that fell apart. The launch pad. Okay, it's right two. Is that what I think it is? Yeah. That's two. Any others? Right.

Probably one of them. I think those are the only two that I, that we know of. Yeah. Does Dimitriere goes and still... He doesn't run the space agency anymore, so he probably didn't do anything in this calendar year, right? no no no no he was out before prior to 2025 oh yeah because he fought the war and stuff yeah yeah before he got his junk blown off in the wood in the crane whatever story lines Jesus small launch company demises um I need your help on this one Anthony I didn't know how to look this up

but we said one at 1.5 you said over uh who who went under this year does abel count I don't know yeah does a pivot count judge Emily does a pivot to missile defense count as a failure I mean, no, that's a business strategy. I wouldn't say that's a failure. Yeah. I can't think of other ones. Yeah. I'm being objective about it.

We thought they were all going under and the actual was they all just became defense companies. Oh, okay. Friends in space. We guess how many of our friends would go to space last year? Because we had the year before, we had one with Emily Calendrelli. I said 1.5. You said over. I can't find one.

Did you do you have friends that I don't? I don't know. I have to look at the new shepherd manifest again. I went through New Shepherd and didn't recognize any of the names. A lot of them were repeats this year, weren't they? There were like a couple that had already flown. And yeah. Do you think that's a good or bad thing?

How do you read that? I mean, I guess it's a good thing. thing? Well, I don't know. That's a very complicated question, if I'm really going to think about it. Because it's either like the first time was so good that they spent all the money again to do it, or there are not enough customers so they went. Anyone want to go again? Yeah. I just could imagine that like what if they offer them like a bogo or like a discount on the flight? You know what I mean? I'm sure it's not that. But I'm just saying that if these were some of the first on the list, they were like, oh, also, if you're buying in now, you could get these extra

benefits. So I don't know. I would do the other thing, though. I would, I would be standing at the hatch after Jeff Bezos fake opens it and then say, hey, that was so good. Would you like to hop the line and go again for double the price and like surge price? Yeah. Maybe. Yeah, there's not enough information to be able to make a judgment. Yeah, we don't know exactly. But yeah. I was saying originally that repeat guests are good unless they're like immediately flying one or two flights later. Because and it's like, yeah, I'm going to do this again. When's your next flight? And they're like, right away.

I've got nothing. But if it's like, we'll throw you at the back of the line and it's in like two years and it's like we're great. Yeah, but this is, these are quick turnarounds. These are like within two years. Yeah. All right. Hans Konigsman was the only one asked about in the chat, by the way.

We're not friends of him, but one time he did buy a pair of my definitely IP infringing socks that I sold and has did a lot of other. SpaceX. Which is not a great. But a customer. Yeah. Friends through transaction. I don't know.

I mean, well, Katie Perry. I mean, she's obviously a good friend of mine. So, you know. She's only my prime minister's friends. You miss the girls trip, Emily. You know? The girls trip was a good item last year. Yeah.

Yeah. I did love that conversation item, though, like as someone who writes about space and as a woman because I had, because anytime I would talk to like another woman who was even mildly interested in space, I'd be like, how about that Katie Perry flight? Like, that was crazy, right? And I'm like, yeah, yeah. Women go to space, too. They're like, yeah, but it was just, it was so negative. And it was, it really was meant to be positive. And I'm like, yeah, you're right, but the internet is a horrible place for. So could, could, should we have expected anything less? No, absolutely not. That's fair. Nailed it. Great, best take of the year so far, for sure.

Not only because it just started. It's really great take. I'll fill this one on the end here. Crew was never in danger statements. I said 2.5. You took the over. I couldn't think of one. I don't think they used the phrase.

Yeah. I mean, NASA didn't really have anyone running the show this year. So it's tough to say what the media strategy was. I think we had a couple, like, had to shelter for, you know, X, Y, and Z. meteorite reasons, but they were pretty chill for the most part. Oh, and then there was the leak, the Russian leak. I think we got a statement on that. I'm trying to think if there was another one. I think those were the only two I'm

thinking of there. I think there were at least two or three times this year that we got a, everything's okay kind of thing. What? I think Starliner happened? Was that 2024? Yeah, that wasn't this year, right? That wasn't this year, right? No, it was nine months. It was from, no, it was nine months last year. Crazy.

Oh, my God. Wow. It goes so fast. I can't keep track of this. Anyway. Okay. So let's get into this year, finally. I don't know if I went fast enough.

We'll see. Maybe not. Maybe not. All right. So I made a list, Anthony. of some topics. Emily, you sent some ideas over and made sure those were included. And Anthony, you added a couple right under the wire here, I think. So we're, I think we'll just kind of go down. Let's see we got a half hour here. So one, two, three, four, five, six. The way we like to do it is

anything that motivates you, this is like Quaker style. And when you feel motivated to speak, Emily, you can take a prediction stance. You don't have to take a take on all of these. I'm also excited because I just realized that I can also see the comments. I didn't know that before. I just opened that. How many yields of your discussion of how the internet is to women in space. Yes, that's a good time to notice that. So maybe I should minimize that.

I don't know. No, our folks are good. You get the chat you deserve and we've got a good one. You get the chat you deserve. Okay. Put that on a cross-stitch fill. for me, please. Hand that out to women everywhere, Anthony.

Oh, my gosh. I didn't say comments, chats. I make a distinction between drive-by comments and chats. For sure. There's a difference. All right. Let's just start at the top here. So Artemis 2 launch date.

This is like the topic of debate because there was like, there's this NET, right? No earlier than February 4th. fifth, which is like pretty soon. That's like happening. And then there was a silly story about there was also a no later than date, which is the most funny thing I've ever heard from a rocket launch. Yeah. And that's like April or April. Yeah. Eric Berger's very confident about this. Last one didn't go so well for time. That's going to happen in February. Yeah. Well, I don't know if he's in February, but he's confident about the launch. So I don't know. What is the,

over-under date for this, you guys? And which stance do you take? What do you think? This was not an over-under. You got to pick a month. This is one of the most. Yeah. Over-underers we save for the end, Jake. Come on. This is call your shot. Call your shot on this. All right. Okay. So I'll jump in first then. I'm going to say April. Okay. Not later then.

I'm just saying April. Just April, any April. Okay. for April or like it happens in April. It happens in April. Yeah, I'm going to go for precision. All right. This is tricky because we don't have that calendar grid like we had the first time around yet.

I don't think they wanted to publish that again because it was like they tore it apart. We were so mean about that calendar because it was so. rightly so. Yeah. That was crazy. It was like it was especially embarrassing because the launch windows were numbered. And by the time they actually went, it was like number like 30 or something. It was like really far into the, it was like two years of launch windows.

I will, if I can guess, it's literally going to be a guess. I'm going to say it happens before June. You're more pessimistic. Yeah. I think, I think roll out is. End of men. All right. I like it.

July. I'll tell you, I'm going. the other direction. I've been, on these ones, Jake, for the last several years, I've been so far under that I need to adjust my thinking and go. You're learning. Yeah. And go, why not landed in July, happy 250th anniversary. Coolest firework ever. Yeah. I think, I think it rolls to the pad this month for sure. It has to. If they're going to even attempt the February launch and that's what I'm hearing. But yeah. Before June, I like how much of a year. You took half one, 2026. I like that.

Well, so for Artemis 1, let's see, I think I was there for both rollouts and all of the launch attempts. When it actually launched, I was eight months pregnant at three in the morning. I slept in my car. So I'm going to go on the later end because I remember those long nights and those long days. yeah. Yeah. And then you said,

I said, I should go work at a weather company instead of doing this anymore. That was, yeah, mid-car sleep. You were like checking LinkedIn.

Where else should I go? Isn't there, I'm trying to remember, does this trajectory have a low Earth orbit checkout period? It does, doesn't it?

And not low, but in orbit. Yeah, Earth orbit. Yeah, Earth orbit. Yeah. So I'm kind of banking on that is a way to

make the launch windows a little friendlier because getting to lower or getting to Earth orbit is easier than targeting the moon right? And so because that was a big problem with last time it was like trying to like line everything up and make the rocket work. The launch windows were like very specific. Got off.

Yeah. I'm hoping that even if it delays three or four times, it's not going to push it back half the year. Yeah. I just it's when there's people on board it's just yeah. It's a whole different it's a whole different animal. So yeah. All right.

Amount of visibly loose nuts. What do you think? We're going to get this here. Okay. How many were there last time? It was floral, so it was more than one, right? Two plus. I don't remember exactly how many.

I mean, are you referring to when they had to like literally go out to the pad and the Red crew had to go fix? That was that was bananas. That was crazy. And then the amount of like PR and interviews that happened. and after that happened was just like, that was nuts. Wow, that was fun. That was crazy.

You think everything will be tightened down this time? That's made it into the checklist, Jake? How are you feeling about that? I think so. I'm feeling good about the tightness. I mean, like this thing moves to the pad, and yeah, they may do all the checkouts they can beforehand, but I don't know. There's got to be some drama.

There's going to be drama. All right. But they'll be checking those notes. Over 0.5. 100%. All right. How about hurricanes? Any hurricanes going to hit?

We're out of the hurricane season for this rollout. We are. That's good. Yeah, we're okay. Was it Ian? Was Ian the one that came over and like was directly over the launch complex? And not even in a new storm. And I don't know.

There have been a few times where there's been. Yeah. There was. No, it wasn't Ian for Artemis. It was Milton because that was. No, Milton was like recently. Yeah, but. Remember, Artemis 1 was four years ago.

Just remember that. You were eight months pregnant. How old is your kid? That's how old Artemis was. She was two, almost three. They rolled it back during Ian. It was Ian. Okay, you're right.

But I remember the ground track was like directly over the launch pad. Like it could not, the center could not have been more over the launch pad. Yeah, that was pretty crazy. All right. Starship. But it was not a good year for the predictions last year. Can we redeem ourselves? And can the starship redeem itself is the question, I guess.

So will it reach orbit? Or we think, man, I'm way less optimistic this year than I was last year. I say yes. Yes. Yeah. I will say yes. Definitely not. A lot of the first.

Not on the first. But I think so this year. Will we have a fuel transfer in space? I'm saying no. Man, I want to say no, because I want to say no, but I also think that they are at such a critical moment where they need to sell out the whole program to do this this year.

Like, they need to not worry about any other aspect of Starship testing if it means actually unlocking this part. Like, I don't care about catching, I don't care about getting any Starships back, sell out the program to prove it out, because until you do, the same stories are going to be written every time of like how complex the architectures are

and how many launches it's going to take to do a thing. You got to get over the hump. So I want to say yes. I'm worried, but I'm going to just say yes because I think they also have identified the fact that they are at a very vulnerable point right now. Yeah.

I'm going to say yes too just because of how important it is. Like, yeah. Yeah. How about catch a start? ship. That's the next one Jake's put for us. See, this is the one, right? I feel like I'd rather them not if it

means they can do this fuel transfer. But I don't think they, I don't think they look at it that way. I don't think I know they don't, but I think they should. Okay, well, we'll pass a note on, but. This one feels more like a long pole because they have to to catch a starship, they're going to have to

prove out a number of re-entries safely and successfully to then go and target the tower. So I feel like this is a no because that is a longer process than getting ready to fly two starships close enough in time. You know what's really interesting about this is that like all of these, I would be like way more optimistic about this stuff, but their cadence is still just not not gone up to like what I would call SpaceX levels.

It's like if they're only flying like once every two to three months, it's like you don't get a lot of opportunities to iterate, you know, it's tough. Yeah. It's weird. They need to still be more flight tests before they're even ready to like, yeah, the deploying payloads regularly thinking about putting people on it. Like, you know, we're talking dozens, dozens. I'm saying no on the catch, no on the catch for me.

Are we all know? I'm going to say, I'm going to say yes. I'm going to say yes on the catch. because, you know, I don't know, this could be the year. I feel good about this year for spaceflight. She said before it was the worst year ever in spaceflight. I don't know. Yeah.

From a gamesmanship perspective, I think no is the right thing for you, or yes is the right thing for your take there. You can get some points on us, you know? Sure. You found the weak spot. You got to differentiate. You have to rename the podcast. Emily was right.

And that's that. That's the name of the show right there. What's next? New Glenn, launch cadence. Yeah, all right. So we didn't talk about, oh, we'll get to the lunar landers in a minute. Just New Glenn itself, right? Because they've got...

Rocket. Yeah, and there's talk now that like maybe Blue Moon's not the next thing out the gate. They might do another launch before that. They've landed, you know, they've landed and returned one. Are we feeling like the... optimistic angle here that you're taking, Emily, where the chart actually ramps up and they're going to fly six, 12? If they fly more than twice this year, I think that's a win. I'd say four launches, tops. If they fly three times, I'd say that's pretty good. It's a new rocket. It's a very

complicated vehicle. I mean, it's, yeah, yeah, I'd say maybe like once a quarter to be really That's a very responsible prediction. Yeah. Well, like I said, I'm a very responsible person. I carry cash. I was going to go with three. Three was my number. Wow.

Yeah. Yeah, I'm being pessimizing. All right. Well, screw it. I'm going six. All right. I like it. I hope you're right.

I hope you're right, too. Let's go, you know. And I hope half of those have successful booster landings. Or all of them. I'm a relaunch, maybe a relaunch. Maybe a relaunch. launch? All right, let's do that one. Do you think they launched the first stage this year? A refurbished? Yeah, reused one. Oh. Yeah. I do. Yeah. I would, I would say yes to that.

I think they got it because they're producing these things so slow. They're not going to get to six. They don't. Reduce, reuse, recycle. Yeah. You got to, you got to do it. Oh, dear. Okay. All right. That's New Glenn. Lunar landers. That's our favorite one. This is, yeah.

We're always so up to lunch on these ones. That's why they're so fun. Like, we're like historically very bad at predicting these. Okay, well, do you want to go, there's four. We have Blue Moon launching this year, the Pathfinder. We have IM3. We have Fireflies Mission 2, Blue Ghost 2. And Griffin is also scheduled to watch this year.

Yeah. breaking the falcon heavy goose egg losing streak. So do you want to go through each one and get some? Or do you want to just do like a total? What do you think? Yeah, let's do each one. Okay. I like that Blue Moon is first in the category of Clipson, which is not a Clips mission,

though, Jake. I appreciate that. You're a Clips provider. They are, but I don't think this mission is one. Yeah. Actually, it might be because. under, I could probably answer that question pretty quickly. I thought it was the second one that they had some option for.

No, they have the second human lander contract. Maybe that's what you're thinking of. I don't know. Either it, either, it's your own contract, but yeah. Do you think it's going to work? I'm going to say that intuitive, they get an upright landing this year because I believe, I believe that. engineering changes can happen and they definitely have the data they need.

I think that's going to happen. They've got a lot of data at 90 degrees, so they should be able to do a little bit of math and figure out what the upright position is. Come in sideways next time, you know? Yeah. Oh, man. We'll redesign the lander, so it just lands on its side all the time operates that way. Jokes, write yourself in that one.

Yeah. I, yeah, I'm going to say two out of four. I really, I really think it'll be two out of four. Because like statistically, let's think about it, 50% of the landings fail. So this is a very logical number for me to throw out there. But I think two out of four. I think intuitive will be one of them to stick their landing this year. Yeah, if you're playing the odds, I think that's safe.

I think Blue Ghost and IM3 succeed and Blue Origin and Griffin don't. my man after Bats are going to be all over me now. Wait, you went too fast, I can't type. You thought Blue Moon is no, and Blue Ghost is yes. Yeah. And I am three is yes. Yeah.

And Griffin is a no. Correct. Okay. I think Firefly did too good of a job, and they've tempted the moon gods too much, and they will not do as good of a job on the second one. That's also good logic. Yeah, that's... Man.

Firefly is absolutely confounding to me because the launch side seems like such a hot mess and such a track record. And Blue Ghost was so spectacular that I have no idea what's going on there. They are so different those two sides of the company. But yeah, we only have one data point for the lunar landing side and that's what's tipping me over

to like, I don't know about this. Tipping me over and look at you with that joke. Okay. All right. Also, though, we're taking for granted that these are all flying. No one's thinking any of these slips? Yeah. Yeah, I guarantee one slip into 2027.

The other category should be like how many actually launched this year. I mean, when I say two out of four land, I should honestly say two out of four actually launched. Yeah, well, we'll roll your landing. We have a history of rolling over other guests' predictions onto the following year, so we'll just keep rolling it down the list if it doesn't make it. Sounds good. Yeah. Yeah.

I don't know. I feel like. Griffin could easily slip. So it could blue moon. Griffin can definitely Griffin I think slips for sure You think blue blue would slip?

So okay So let me talk about that one Because this is really funny Last year you predicted it would launch last year And now it's like scheduled this year And I'm looking at What I say? They're like they're scheduled for like

I think no earlier than quarter one right now But like they're about to send it off to Houston for testing. vacuum testing yeah it's a really good sign i don't know if it is i think that's like that's the final that's the final stretch of testing on a brand new thing they've never done before uh yeah i feel like it's gonna find something and that's when the delays happen the worst right that's like final vd stuff is that's the that's the grueling part of a project like this right in fact jake the most recent moonlander that we know that got vacuum tested was canceled while

vacuum testing. That's a really good point. I will say as far as their track record goes, though, I think that, you know, as it, I don't think they would send it to Houston if they thought this thing was going to fall apart in a vacuum test. Like, you know what I mean? I mean, no one does, obviously, but I think it's taken a lot longer than anticipated and maybe for a good reason. That's, that's my guess there. So I'm going to look at it as a good sign. I'm going to make an appeal to the audience to let me know what the most recent example was of a spacecraft going to vacuum testing and having major issues found with it and having to be rebuilt or rethought or reworked in any way. I think vacuum testing is my new max cue Jake. Like we all care about it because of, I don't know, history, but like as of late, it's not been a problem.

Isn't that Rosalind Franklin? Didn't that have a vacuum test problem? Had a lot of problems, so I've put that out of my head. Yeah. There was a war that was its problem also. So I don't really even know. I think that was the second time, though. Was it vacuum? I thought they just had parachute problems. No, I think something blew up in the vacuum chamber too. Can I remember who was the rover or the lander, but they had a back test problem. Yeah. Anyway. Okay. I think I think Blue Moon's going to work and it's going to launch this year.

I'm a, I've long been way too optimistic for Blue Origin, but I do feel like they've turned a corner. They're riding a good momentum wave right now. Political wins are at their back. Good vibes are to be had. They got a new leader who seems like he's doing things. Tori Bruno joined the company, which is weird, and I still can't figure out if it's good or bad, or illegal.

I don't know. I have a lot of questions about the Tori Bruno thing. I think it's good. I think it's definitely good for Blue Origin. Maybe. All right, let me throw this at you. Prove to me that Blue Glen, Blue Glen, Jesus Christ, Blue Origin needed help selling New Glenn to the government.

If it works, they're going to sell it. I don't know that, like, Tori Bruno is some mystical government sales guy that's going to change the overall trajectory for New Glenn in an incredible direction and decrease. I don't think ULA's was only buoyed by Tori Bruno itself, and that's why they still were one of the premier providers of the National Security Space Launch program. New Glenn is going to be. to eat their lunch, Tori Bruno or not.

So I'm a whole, I'm a skeptic on like, oh, what great coup for, I think it's more like a trolling situation than it is like drastically changes the outcomes of these two companies. That's a very expensive troll. Yeah, it is. But, you know. Yeah. It's great for Tori.

Like, I'm thrilled for him personally. That sounds more fun. But. Yeah. I don't know that it is, it changes the graphs so spectacularly on these. companies. Maybe you're, maybe you're, there's something you don't see and there's a new offering coming down the pipe that, uh, is not automatically sold and that's what he's there for. Could be. Isn't this job just like something really generic, like chief of government

friendship or something? Yeah. He's going to take people on, uh, incentive horse rides, Jake. Yeah. Accounts receivable for, for kickbacks or whatever is, you know, like it's, they do really good. I'll take them out on the, on the, on the, on the, prairie and the bunch of the horses that he's got. The foothills of Colorado, yeah. All right, I'm saying yes and Blue Moon. Everyone else is saying no. I forget where you were at, Emily.

I'm saying no. I'm changing mine to not yes. Okay. So it allows for both failure and slippage. Okay. Sure. I'm conflicted about IM3, to be honest. Whether it launches or whether it lands.

Lans. Um, yo, if they don't land that, problem times. Problem time. I said no for blue ghost. Yes for blue moon.

Griffin is slipping. I feel like I need another yes in here, so I guess I'll go with you two and I'm three. So there we go. Love it. Love the logic. Jake's got a typical Falcon Heavy slander in here, Emily. He's a noted Falcon Heavy hater.

He thinks that the over-under is 0.5 Falcon Heavy launches for the year. Do you think, Do you think it's happening or not? Yeah. How does that matter? Under over. It's the over under. Welcome to New Jersey where we sports bet constantly, Emily.

Please download all of the sports betting apps. Get used to your new residency. You can't do it in Florida. You can thank the Miccosukees for that. But in New Jersey, we don't have any of those things. We can sports base. I said that you can do that in New Jersey, but you can't buy beer at a grocery store. Please.

We can if there's go to Wegmans. There's some of that haven't. It's the whole thing. We don't have wagmans. I'm upset with you that you just told me you have Wegmans and I don't have Wegmans or grocery situations. I'll meet you in the Brendan Burn Forest. We'll exchange Wegmans for goods from the shore and then we'll go home.

Goods from the shore? Yeah. Goods from the shore. Like, what do you think I have to offer? I haven't thought about which particular place I would like you to pick this stuff up from. I've got this bag of salt and some herring for you. Here we go. I can bring you pretzels.

And other baked good for sure. And I've got a good butcher. So. Pressels and pretzels and. I'll get you fresh pretzels. I won't give you the freezer. I appreciate it. I appreciate it.

And some electron fairings. Anyway, do you think there are more than one or more Falcon Heavy launches this year, Emily? I think there's at least one. There's got to be one. In case you needed a reference point, 2025, the number was zero. I think there's at least one this year. I do too.

Where are you at, Jake? Are you just setting the over-under, or are you taking an under? I'm going to take the under just because it's good content. Cool. All right. Lightning round on the Jared Isaacman list here. Yeah, this is like a huge question. The first one here, Lightning round, the biggest one here, will you announce a restructure

of a major program or not? Two of them, in fact. Yeah, we could talk the whole show on just those two. Oh, you have a commenter that's pointed out. We're missing a lander. We have a Chinese lander, I think, that's launching this year. I think they're right. Yeah.

Changa 7. I think it'll, yeah. Nails it. I think it'll probably work. Full success. Yeah. Easy. Inside up a moon base, well, it's there.

Well, just kidding. But I think that'll write. All right. I'm putting on the list. Thank goodness you have commenters. I never thought I would say that about anything, but. Yeah, so I'll just open end this on basically. How was that?

If you think, what major changes do you think Isaacan makes in his first year? Give me one that you predict will happen. Just a major announced like top tier that we will look back on this year and go, that was the big news of that sentence here. He's like about to have his first post. He's about to have a news conference in like five minutes, so I wish I could tell you after that because, oh, I like that comment. I like your, I like this Hubble servicing. I love that.

I wish that would happen. I think he's going for it? I don't think it happens through NASA funding right there, but that would be fun. An incentive flight up to the Hubble? An incentive flight. Oh my gosh. I'm going to go out on the limb and I'm going to say that he is going to at least majorly restructure Artemis if not cancel it.

Wow. Okay. That's a wild one. Not Artemis. SLS Orion. Let me clarify that. All right. Not Artemis.

He will majorly restructure, majorly restructured to Artemis may be including a cancellation of the SLS Orion sack. That's a wild one.

It's got to you this year. It's the only year he has to do it. His capital will be gone in a year. This is now or never. Honestly, I think, I hope,

what I hope happens is that I hope he's able to, I don't know, depending on the budget, I hope he's able to say, some missions that were slated to be canceled.

I hope he's able to find a way to make NASA less expensive so it can keep doing the science that it should do, planetary science in particular. I don't think Artemis is going to be his legacy per se. Okay. I like the option of accepting these, like, how do you speed up the Artemis 3, lander proposals from industry, and then using that as leverage against SLS Orion by way of what I presume SpaceX's is, I've always presumed, is them saying, if we did this without SLS Orion, it would be faster because we don't have to worry about its launch schedule.

So here's our study on how we would fly dragon to starship and starship to the moon, and putting NASA backing behind that idea, an alternative to Orion beyond Earth orbit. I think is the wedge that is needed in to the program. As much as I would love Gateway to get canceled. I don't feel like it's the one to solve right off the bat. No, probably not. Yeah. That's solving itself by mere existence and schedule squandering.

Yeah. I'd love to say that the Mars sample return could be his legacy, but, you know, that's, yeah. What do you think that's going to do? Any action? Let's just do any action on Mars Sanford's. Like a plan, a plan could be the action that like an actual renewed plan because the last update we got on that was like early last year. It's been forever.

He's going to act on the commercial proposals. He's going to do something. Oh, yeah, definitely. Because there are some good commercial proposals that could do this way under. God, what was the number that was thrown out? Oh, my God. I can't remember. 11 billion? Yeah.

Like, yes. So, yes, definitely. I think that could be it. So no pressure, Jared. Do you think, all right, put a little spin on it. Do you think it's the rocket lab one? What do you think? Who do you think is going to get the?

Oh, the Lacket lab one? Or does he cancel SLS or Ryan and throws a bone to Lockheed and gives them this one so that they're not so butt hurt? Oh, wow. Play the political game. like that. Yeah. Rocket, like I would, Rocket Lab, they were so bold and boastful about it. I kind of think that's like a style that lands well. And there was a Peter Beck op-ed this week. Yeah. Yeah. I like it. I mean, like as a journalist to cover it, I would like for it to be Rocket Lab because they are, like, they're interesting and they want to do bold things and they have a cool play it like Peterback has a cool

planetary mission. Like, he's obsessed with Venus, which is awesome. You know, Venus never gets enough attention, and he wants to send three spacecraft there. So I think he has bolder planetary goals. So, yeah, that would be fun. For sure. We're all buying it, the rocket lab thing. Yeah.

Yep. I'm in. I'm in. That was the buzzer beaker, Jake. The largest space policy topics in the industry today in the last four. minutes of the show. That's how we do it here. Emily, can you plug some, plug some acuether stuff? What's going on over there? Oh my gosh. All the weather things, obviously. No, I just started with acuether in November and they're really great. I work with a lot of people much smarter than I am,

a lot of meteorologists. But we are doing a lot of space and astronomy coverage. I'm very excited about, you know, we've got, I'm excited about comets and asteroids. I'm always excited about to talk about those because people love to read stories about those. So I'm excited about some of that coming up. I'm excited about the Vera Rubin Observatory this year. You know, the legacy surveys starting the tenure. That's coming. I don't know. I think this year is going to be a really cool year for astronomy and well, as well as spaceflight. So we'll be covering it too. Just, yeah. it's it's going to be a fun year. I hope some of these predictions come right.

Well, a lot of odds means we'll be right about some of them. So just compare which ones. You could be right or you could be wrong. I don't think I got any right last year except for like a little thing. So that's a bad year. Yeah, you were very optimistic last year. It's pretty funny, actually. I was.

I was feeling good, you know. What happened last year that you were so optimistic? He's really. really happy with the election result and you know. I was going to say, fresh off a kid. I was three months into the second child. So, yeah, maybe I was just, I was back to work early January that year. Oh, so you were on the second kid, so you were just like delirious.

Okay. All right. Got it. Yeah, you know. You know, it's pretty much where we're at. But maybe they'll go see their first rocket launch this year. So that'll be good. That'll be a good thing.

Nailed it. Emily. Thanks so much. you're the best. Thank you for less than less than four years for now. Yeah, yeah. Let's have the cadence and come back. I'm happy to do.

Even halfway through this year, if we get through half of this stuff, that would be great. Mid-year course correction on the prediction show. Yeah. It's a good plan. All right, y'all. We'll see you later. Bye. Thanks, everybody.

One, two, three, four, five, four, three, two, one, end of death.