Off-Nominal - 253 - Dome is Your Strategy

Episode Date: August 20, 2026

It’s time for actual stock tips. Jake and Anthony draft competing $100,000 space portfolios and lock them in for a year. Topics Off-Nominal - YouTube 253 - Dome is Your Strategy - YouTube Follow Off-Nominal Subscribe to the show! - Off-Nominal Support the show, join the Discord Off-Nominal (@offnom) / Twitter Off-Nominal (@[e-mail]) - Spacey Space Follow Jake WeMartians Podcast - Follow Humanity's Journey to Mars WeMartians Podcast (@We_Martians) | Twitter Jake Robins (@JakeOnOrbit) | Twitter Jake Robins (@[e-mail]) - Spacey Space Follow Anthony Main Engine Cut Off Main Engine Cut Off (@WeHaveMECO) | Twitter Main Engine Cut Off (@[e-mail]) - Spacey Space Anthony Colangelo (@acolangelo) | Twitter Anthony Colangelo (@[e-mail]) - jawns.club 🐘 Off-Nominal Merchandise Off-Nominal Logo Tee WeMartians Shop | MECO Shop

TLS and go for main engine, start. Go at throttle up. Negative return. It's time for some honest to goodness stock tips, Jake. Stonks. Stonks, actual stocks tips. You had a ridiculous idea for a show we could record and drop while we are. You're on vacation.

My sister's getting married on the same day. You're on vacation. We need a thing to fill the gap, Jake. What are we doing here? What are we doing? So we've been talking about stocks a lot lately, probably mostly be driven by recent IPO news that has dominated our world. But yeah, so I thought, I mean, wouldn't it be fun to like, I don't know, like play in this sandbox a little bit and see if we know anything about anything. Because we always joke there.

These are not stock tips. Well, now we can find out we can get some empirical evidence that that is true. Or false. cancel the rest of the podcast and just go into day training. And you're just going to be a newsletter you can subscribe to. It's only going to be $39.99 a month. But yeah, so we're going to, we opened up some, you know, a game on Investopedia, which has like a stock simulator and you can like do, it's basically like fantasy football,

but for stocks. And it gives you $100,000 to play around with in the American markets. And so Anthony and I, I went back behind the scenes and did some research. Went shopping. You did some research. Yeah, I went shopping. I went up with a portfolio.

Research is the right word for it, really. But. I was based investing. Yeah. Committing what's in our brains to pen and paper and Excel sheets, I would say. Yeah. Yeah. You can hear Jake's email notifications as the stock buys continue to roll in because

Investipita has this unbelievable system where it has to process as if they're actually trading stocks instead of just recording records in a database. that update instantly at the price that you click. So. Somewhere there, yeah. So I think we should go through our portfolios, and then I'm thinking, I don't know what's in yours, you don't know what's in mine.

We did not share our details. We just shared some ground rules. We had $100,000 to spend. We couldn't have one company more than 50% of your portfolio, three or more stocks, which was hilarious that you felt the need to specify that as if either of us would be close to three. I was worried that you were going to come some weird strategy and be like,

I'm all in, baby, and just like, buy. 100% SpaceX. I don't know. I don't know what you're thinking. I mean, you've literally said SpaceX is priceless multiple times on this show. I have. I have.

I didn't know if you were going to go there. So I wanted to have a, I needed some content. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, we needed to have a, as if we maybe, at any point in our life should have a producer on this show would impress some constraints on us. But no, that's the other part we should talk about is that we were like, all right, well, if we're doing this game, what's our interval of check-ins? How can we win? What is the win scenario? So we think we're just going to check in every summer. Do once a year check in on the portfolies? Let's be honest, we're going to pull this up time and again when things happen in the stock market as the year rolls on. But officially, we're going to check in once a year.

and we'll keep, what are we going to do? Keep a running score. Who's up? Like, if I'm up this year, I get a point. If you're up the following year, you get a point. Yeah, I don't know. Maybe you should get one point per year away from the start. So like, whoever's up year one gets one point.

Whoever's up year two gets two points. So that it's like, we get some intermediate returns, but you get value, you get bonuses for being good at long-term thinking. Sure, sure, sure. We'll figure it out. You figure it out and tell us, people. Well, how should we keep scoring this? And also, Jake made the caveat that at that check-in is when we will rebalance.

So we're not going to, what we just bought today, we're not going to touch again, right? We're lock it in for a year, yeah. Okay. We're not doing rebalancing throughout the year. We will rebalance at the year check-in annually and make adjustments to that. But we just got to ride the lightning until then. Because after nine years of doing this podcast, we now remembered that, Every summer we have a week like this where we just don't have a show.

And so let's make a recurring one year show that we can pre-record it. Yeah. And be somewhat timeless. Yeah. Yeah. Even though, as you said, we're at a very, we're recording this a little bit in advance of when you're seeing this, potentially a week or more in advance of when you're seeing this. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And all there's, there's like, SpaceX earnings are tomorrow as we record this.

Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Today is August 3rd. So whenever you're listening to this, remember that. Yeah, but we're buying it on sale when we buy SpaceX or it's about to plummet and one of our values will be $50,000 tomorrow. And we'll find out. It will be really funny. Did you bring a drink for our little daytime edition here?

What did you got? I haven't tried this before, but I found it in a store. So it is a Paloma tequila thing. I don't know. It looks like a, what do you call it? What's the smear off ice? that it looks like visually. Yeah.

Yep. Brins you back to high school. Spirited off ice. Paralyzer. That's a little tiny bottle too. Yeah. Looks like an airline bottle in your hand. Look at that thing.

I've got a coffee in my JWST glass. Remember this thing? Nice. This thing is killer. It's still kicking. This is great. I used to have two of these.

Good quality. I feel like one of them's around this office somewhere, but it's, yeah, it's all staying on. I haven't been throwing this thing in the dishwasher and it stayed on. Nice. Look at that. Excellent.

All right. Have all of your trades processed? They have, yeah. I have $2,000 left over. I should have bought some more stocks, but. I went a little high on my last buy because it doesn't update in real time as our complaint is already.

So my last one is processing. So why don't we start with yours? You want to go all the way, let's go all the way through yours or? Yeah. Probably. We can do that? Okay.

Yeah. Now, can I pull up and see yours on my side? I think so. I think I set that up that you can do that. But how do I get to it? That's a great question. Great question. You could have done a little bit more research on this.

I can't click the go-to-game button, which is very odd. Games. Very odd that I can't do that. Oh, well. Why don't you send me a screenshot that I can pull up on this side of the conversation. All right. Okay, I will send this over to you. So high tech, so prepared.

Oh, yeah, we're doing really good here. All right. Flip this out and post, our producer. Pop that up there on the screen. Let's back up here, saving it. Back up there. Download, save. Now, does this do like?

Load. Total value. I'm not going to look too much of this. So what do you? Oh, you want to send another one? Sorted by total value? No,

no, it's good. No, send it to me because I got this fucking crazy order. Send it a good one. I figure by total value makes sense because then we can like look at, you know,

the big players in a portfolio, which you should have, you know, you're diversifying it or then you have some, you know, the long tail of the bell for what you want. Okay. I'm going to try to make the way.

so that we only see one at a time. Hold on. Okay. Okay. Okay. You're going to bring it up? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. All right. I think I got it. Boom. Here's your, here's your, here's your first purchase. Roll it out for us, Jake. How do you like that? Is that the one you expected Lockheed Martin to be at the top of my portfolio? I thought Lockheed would be in here somewhere on your...

So we box this by space stocks, but we were like... Yes, that's a good thing we should talk about. Salt the taste, right? You know, how spacey is space? Is Amazon space? It is if you make the argument. So this is a... We haven't come up with any rules or enforcement.

We'll figure that on the fly. I assume this in here. So big pop last week, because they got a $60 billion order for Interceptors. I forget what it was. Some sort of war, yeah. War stuff. Big Golden Dome guy, I think. Is that, what are you buying here in Lockheed Martin?

Yes, you're seeing my overall strategy is Golden Dome. Because I'm looking at, I'm looking at one year. And realistically, that's like, that's probably the easiest way to get some cash in one year in the space sector. So I did go pretty heavy into Golden Dome stuff. Okay. So, yeah, Lockheed Martin, 15%, is roughly what that. that works out too. And then if you scroll down even the next one, L3 Harris,

again, playing into that, right? That are 15%. Now, you're feeling good about the Lockheed Martin thing, even with the order last week being priced in. I thought about it. I thought about that, but I think that I, okay, I'll, I'll preface this by saying I didn't dig too deeply into that contract, but I'm suspecting, I'm suspecting Anthony that they didn't just cash a $58 billion check this week. I think they're probably going to get that in installments. And there's probably a risk that that doesn't go through. And as those things kind of roll in, I think that there's more growth to get as things become realized.

Okay. Yeah. That was my reasoning. It could be very wrong. Now, L3, is that just the next one you thought of? Yeah, I took a quick look at some of the, like, what is the crossover between like, companies that we actually talk about on this podcast, like real, real space companies. And then like the other part of the Venn diagram is like just going to cash in on that golden dome money.

So there's like, I didn't buy Raytheon, you know, because I felt like that was not in the spirit of what we're doing. But L3 Harris, I think is in the spirit of it. I mean, that's the core engine of the SLS right there. There you go. You're in the mix. Oh, yeah, you are. You tell me when to roll on. All right, keep going.

Next one. Obviously, it has to be a part of any stonged game right now, SpaceX. Yeah, another 15%. I thought about doing more on SpaceX, but I think their year is going to be a little chaotic. I don't know what you think. I think in the 365-day time period, it's going to be a lot of ups and downs. And I don't know if it's really going to be a lot bigger next year. I think in 10, 20 years it will, but a year, I don't know.

I think there's still some stuff to shake. make out. So I capped that at 15% as well. Yeah, where you feel, you don't feel like we're, you're buying the dip here. You feel like, well, that's why I bought any at all because it is on sale. What's your, uh, it's to be great because everyone will already know the results. Uh, yes, when I say this. Do you think it's going up or down with earnings? I think it'll pop tomorrow when they do earnings. I think there's going to be, I don't know, I've just been doing rental math and all the like contracts that have been piling up since the S1 was filed. And like, dude, they're doing pretty good for increasing revenue in the last couple months.

But at the same time, all the shares unlocked this week too. So all the employees are going to be taking their paychecks. So that will be interesting. Yeah, I don't know. All right. It'd be fun. A measured, a measured approach to SpaceX. Yeah, yeah.

That's good. I noticed that these rules that you put in place were not for you, but you're trying to constrain me and what I might do. Yes. We'll report back on that. Yeah. This is my last military industrial complex purchase. I think so.

I think so. North of Grumman, the last big one, 15% there. All right. Same reason. Same deal. Same reason. Solid motors. Not feeling too scared by them having to spend more money on solid rocket motors for Vulcan?

Not too scared about that. I mean, it was a story. There was a story written about this. I don't think the CEO of Northrop is losing a lot of sleep over Vulcan's cadence right now. No, but there was a story written. So, that's a thing, man. I mean, that whole customer could evaporate.

It's true. As you said, is on shaky foundations here. It's true. It's true. All right. Rocket Lab. This is where Rocket Lab slots in for you. Not too much. Yeah.

8,000. No, I wanted to have a stake in them because I think they're a good company. But again, I don't see like a big spike of growth next year. I think they're more of a slow burn kind of company. And I don't know, they've got a lot of that hay stuff is all factored into this already. So we'll see. I don't know. I don't really make them money off money off of like electron anyway, right?

No, but you got Arridium coming in. So I think it's But it's priced into right It is but it But what they do with it when it closes I think is a Thing to consider right of Yep yeah could be Because that's what you're I don't think

I think a year from now I mean you know where do you think neutron is slotting in here Do you think we're we're neutrons within the window That we're looking at here or this is that's a year two thing I think that's next year yeah I think for neutron all they're going to have this year is like more R&D, like, expenses. And this is like, they're getting into the most expensive part of Neutron, right?

Which is like trying to get the whole damn thing put together. Like, this is going to be costs this year. I think they're going to be a lot of tank watching coming up. Yeah. Yeah. But what my point is is that you're, I think you're buying the stuff that may be announced and roll out over the next year, which is. Good.

Yeah. Plans beyond we're buying Eridium. But the then what? Yeah. Like, I don't think Rockelab is the kind that's going to wait two years to announce the then what, right? I think that's something that... Yeah, could be.

A roll out of... I'm foreshadowing some things that are in mind, but like the announcement of, all right, and now here's where we're going with this, I think, is an interesting aspect. Well, and that's why I have 8% of my stock portfolio. That's true. They're pretty high up on your list,

knowing that my scroll bar is pretty small over here. This is the long list. All right. Here we go. You did it. You did the Amazon one. I did it. All right.

I had to. Yeah. $7,000. Let's be honest. I'm just buying AI AI stocks here, but, you know, we'll see. Is Amazon you're saying it's an AI one? A little bit. Yeah.

The next year's growth? Yes. AWS, Leo. Yeah. What else could happen? It's a big company now. You know, it's a big company now. What's the next most spacey thing that you're watching for Amazon?

just just leo and how they actually roll out as a i think leo applications would be the next big spacey thing that i would think like okay you got this infrastructure now make it make it pump right like what are you going to do what's what is the the total end-to-end a w s leo play that you know is realized that'll be interesting to see it's interesting when you consider um they made so much noise a bunch of years ago about aWS ground station is that what they called it right wasn't that what they called it?

It was like a ground station as a service thing that they did. It's just interesting to not have them be one of the main people talking up. We're doing orbital data centers. Like, they are not in that conversation right now. And I find that very curious. It is very strange. I feel like it's coming. Has to be, right?

Like, all the stuff we've talked about with. What if this is the moment that, AWS is the old guard, right? The thing we always talk about is SpaceX. At some point. Yeah. Yeah, they could be. They're too Earth-centric, Jake.

Yeah, yeah. Haven't they listed into their founder? They've got to get that infrastructure off Earth. Because like that business case is always, there's been like a criticism of that business case of like the AWS Leo combo. People are like, why is Amazonian? They'll never beat SpaceX. I'm like, Spanek doesn't have AWS.

And like that is enormous, right? Like we can still talk about that today. We're like even at all these new inflated numbers that an AWS is still absolutely pounding Starlink money. Like there's just, it's not even a competition. Right. And that sort of end to end, like you could, you could like go from one point of the earth to the other and do all kinds of compute and send data from anywhere to anywhere and like never leave the Amazon system. Like there you could almost replace the internet. Like Amazon could be like we don't need the internet to operate. Like if you got a Leo thing on your. By which you mean we are the internet.

Yeah. Like literally like the internet could disappear except for our shit and it would still work because you have a direct like it's just a private network at that point. Right. And like the security benefits of that, the military benefits. There's there's people that would, you know, in this like AI security environment they're in right now where like everything is hacked constantly. Like why wouldn't you want to have a private network, right? And so I feel like that is an important business case to keep talking about. And the data center stuff plays into that beautifully. So yeah. It's one of those questions of do you believe AWS can become Starlink fashion and Starlink can become AWS? Like that's the age old question. That's very succinct. That's very succinct. That's very succinct.

Yeah. Because I, which is why I think I'm surprised that they haven't been part of the conversation thus far. And now people that doubt the orbital data center business case would say that's because it's all bullshit and it's smoking mirrors and it's never going to work

and the people that push data centers in space would be saying that's because it is such a step change from what they're doing now. It is such a departure from the architecture that they have in place

that and there's such a big chip to turn that they haven't been nimble enough to see where it was going and jump on that. My point about bringing AWS Ground Station up was that like it almost felt like they should have been the first out of the gate talking about

AWS Ground Station is getting your data down to the ground back into your data centers that we have here to process all the data that's coming down from the ground to then distribute it where you need it and the next step would be we're also going to have some data centers in space they're going to work together they're going to share

workloads in this way like they just didn't it just seemed like that was kind of the last thing we heard about that and then Amazon Leo was the only the other space story. And Ground Station doesn't come up in conversations anymore. Maybe it, I don't know, people out there, are you using it? Does it suck? Is it good? Is it just working and nobody's interested in it? Is it even still a thing? Am I, have I forgotten that they canceled it five years ago? I don't know. I don't know. I don't even know. That's enough about Amazon.

Tell us that. Whoa, here comes some Canadian homerism in this section. Yeah, yeah. I just got a little peek at this Canadian section. The next to our nationalist pride, I had to make sure we get a little bit of this in here. So I got Telosat and MDA on there, 5% each. Had to. I had to put some Canadian stuff in there, you know. Okay. Telasat's been talked about lately. Give me, give me your breakdown on this. Is this purely, did you put more thought into it other than I got to buy some Canadian shit? Well, I mean, like, mostly just the Canadian shit. But Telasat did get like a pretty good commitment from the government to do some, you know, homegrown domestic orbital communication stuff that doesn't depend on you guys, right?

So there's some security there. I don't know if they'll be able to execute it, but at least there's going to be some, you know, some money coming in. And then MDA, yeah, I don't know.

I don't think of the NBA these days, I'll be honest, but yeah, I don't know. Get an arm three's off the table. That's priced in at least, so we're on sale, right? All right.

Solid. We're really bringing home the takes here, the bottom half. All right. Quantum. All right. Let's go, baby. Let's go. This is just some, we're down into the dregs here. This is just J.B. money. I got to put some money down for J.P. That's it.

Wait, did this, are they public yet or they announced their public? I don't know. I bought this. Is that what it is? I don't know. Is that the wrong one? Is that a quantum scape? Is that a different company? Quantum scape. Quantum scape. This is the best. This is the best. This is the best. that could have happened. They're a solid state battery company.

This couldn't have gone better. Oh my goodness. I'm crying. I bought the wrong stock. I'm crying. And you're locked in for a year. You can't even go. You gotta see what happens.

Hey, well, at least solid state batteries are pretty promising technology. Fuck. That's so funny. Quantum escape. Honestly, you're just a first to make this mistake. It's so close to space. I mean,

this will be a half, this will happen with actually. money. This is the funnier version of when people try to buy SpaceX and

accidentally buy Virgin Galactic. Oh, man. All right, well, let's see. How have they done over the years? Quantum escape.

How much resolution you want? All right, here's the five-year stock chart, Jake. How do you feel in now? What are we? Feels like you're buying

low. Yeah, it's on sale. Yeah. Yeah. Who knows what they do? But, you know, We'll check back in, I guess.

That's so funny. That's one of the funniest things that could happen in this show. Because I was like quantum space is going public, but I do not think they're public yet. All right. So you have to commit to, in a year from now, you have to sell all your quantum scape portfolio and buy that much quantum space. On the show. Whatever's left of it. Yeah.

With all 10 bucks. God, that's really funny. All right. Momentus. I forgot they still existed. So enlighten me. Yeah. Well, they pivoted to defense.

So I'll just throw some risky golden dome money. Okay. That's about it. Nice. A little subcontractor, Golden Dome. We're really not, we're not into the strategy realm here anymore, Anthony. I like it. Yeah.

You're taking some flyers out. Like this one, AST Space Mobile. Yeah. You know, direct to sell sounds like a pretty good deal. Let's throw some money at that direction and see what happens. it's funny that you think many people would have taken the same approach

hold on one second I don't know how much you follow along with the the we talk about cash tag people you know on Twitter and whatnot have you followed along with the cash tag people on AST space mobile

no no because they're pretty they're conspiracy theorists aren't they is that what it is? I don't know if they're conspiracy theorists but they're very hopeful. Very hopeful. I've always felt weird

about AST Space Mobile. Let me lay this out for you. Are they the Bitcoin of Space Docs? I don't know. I've just been, something always rubbed me wrong about, do you remember when they were announcing their original

a satellite bus and panel sizing and all that? It was like, it was so large that I think, I think even NASA filed something that was like, we don't think this thing should be launched. Do you remember this story at all?

I don't remember that, but that's an awesome story. You're in trouble when NASA's like, can you not? I've got to find out if this actually happened. I don't even know what to Google for that. Oh, geez. Because it was, the original design was absolutely enormous.

And the one now, oh yeah, okay. I remembered, I got it. This is a Wikipedia, so take your concerns up there if you disagree with what I'm about to read. In October 2020, NASA filed a letter with the FCC during the public comment period

related to the position to express concerns about the risk of collisions between the SpaceMobile Satellite Constellation and the A-Train satellite constellation due to the proposed orbital altitude for SpaceMobile as well as the size and scale of the Space Mobile project. They submitted a second letter in November

to revise its original stance as a result of ASC SpaceMobiles demonstrated interest in collaborating with NASA to mitigate risks. So I guess they worked it out. But they were very concerned at that time. And it was, yeah, what was the size of this thing originally? It was like... I'm looking at some pictures.

It's like a big, yeah, it's like a big chip-looking thing, right? Let's see. Yeah, this one... It's like maybe 20 meters across or something? Yeah. Yeah, they just always were huge. And I don't know. I've always felt just a little bit.

I haven't quite figured out what their deal was. But now I just see them coming up a lot of people being like, this is it, we're turning the corner. And then other people being like, but there's still not launching anything yet. So I don't know. I'm pretty sure I did read in one of the things I looked up when the research was like the quote of troubled financials.

So we'll see how that goes. I mean, hopefully better than Quantum scape. It has to be. We'll find out. All right, you got some Voyager in here, $2,000 of Voyager. That's just, you know, I want to cash in those increased space news prices. I think that's a lot of that I want to do there.

Some of that money back, you know. This is like 10 years of space news that you purchased here. Yeah, got to pay it somehow. What thing of the Voyager portfolio are you most excited about? Starlab, Astrobotic, Golden Dome Partnerships. Dome, obviously. Dome is your. strategy.

Yeah, I mean, a little everything, right? So there's, there's like probably some clips money coming down the pipe. There is golden dome money. Starlab, yeah, we'll see. I don't know. We have our doubts about commercial stations. We'll see how that goes. Certainly within a year.

Yeah. Yeah. Although within a year might continue, if they do end up being one of the people picked, that should happen within the year. Yeah. Astrobotic will fly Griffin within the year. So I'm thinking of moments that might spike, right? Spikes.

Because the year out, you're really looking for like, what's the near term boosts that I might get. Yeah. So if I'm thinking of Voyager, those are the two that I'm thinking, right? If Griffin goes well, they get a little bump, Starlab gets picked, they get a bump. If they end up, if whatever they're partnered with on Golden Dome gets a contract, they get a bump. So this could be the best work in $2,000 you've gotten here. We'll see. We'll see.

I don't know what next is. Firefly. Hell yes. Let's talk about this. Last one. Yeah. Last one got around that. It was some firefly.

This is a brave one. Well, that's why it's only two grand. Yeah. That's why it's the last one. It's just a little bit of clips money. You know, we'll see how it goes. Do you think they're going to fly their next lander within this time period? Right now, I think it's late 2026 as on the early side.

so they could they could yeah we'll see I obviously feel good about the result if you have included this in here yeah yeah well I mean they did pretty well in the first one right so we'll see if they did great on the first one that's why I'm like ooh repeat it do you remember firefly alpha exists do you ever think about that the rocket the rocket do you remember that I'm gonna I'm gonna be honest with you at some point the Firefly rockets, like, sort of disassembled themselves and merged into some sort of, like, Northup Grumman, something. And I completely lost track of them, and I don't care about them anymore. Okay.

Great. I'm glad that you've included them in your portfolio with such a reason to- Either way. Either way, they're both in my portfolio. So I got the money wherever it comes, right? Yeah, I mean, there's been many years where I've predicted, is this the year that finally Northup's going to buy Firefly? Some of year, I'll be right.

It's on sale now. they could get it for $9 a share and be paying a premium. That'd be pretty good, hey? I could cash in on that. All right. There's Jake's portfolio. Can I believe I bought five hundred. You've still got a little money to spend.

You got like $2,000 to spend. What are you going to top up? Should I buy something right now? Yeah, top up your account. What are you going to top up? Quantum scape. I think you should build. I think you should, I think as penalty,

you should buy more Quantum scape. How about this? Whoever loses each year needs to buy $2,000 of Quantum Scape. I need to rebalance. You need to liquidate something to buy $2,000 of Quantum Scape. There is a stock that I was considering and then I just didn't have room for it. Maybe I should just buy that room. Oh, nice.

How many shares would that be? Yeah, let's do this. I'm going to add 84 shares of, black sky. Okay, nice. Here we go. I like that. 92 shares.

Awesome. 92 shares of black sky. I like that. All right. Punch it. Submitted. Full vibes? Full vibes or what?

I just, yeah. Orbital surveillance feels like it's not going anywhere to the moon, baby. Give me black sky in your power rankings of imagery companies. Like near the top, middle. Yeah, they're near the top. Yeah. Yeah, I'm always been a black sky fan, as you'll see. So, all right.

Any last comments on your portfolio? Trump better come through and all this money, baby, when I'm done. All right, I think I've got my last one went through. So now I have all of my things purchased. So I try to make this also. one share at a time? Yeah, let's do that. Let's try.

Let me try to make my window real tiny. Okay. This is great. This is such good audio content. All right, here we go. I listened to Jake's rules, and I only purchased 30% of my portfolio in SpaceX. Nice, nice.

Which is an aggressive yet reasonable take. It feels like for, I don't know, sure it could get lower, but I may be trading a win this year for wins in the future. But I think discourse on the heat shield aside, I do kind of feel like they're turning the corner on the starship momentum. It feels like that's a thing that will start clicking. I think that would drive some good momentum towards new Starling satellites are legitimately crazy.

Like the stats on those things are nuts. It's wild. So they start launching those at a clip. That's interesting. They have a lot of interesting missions over the next year between Starship and now we're getting into the back end of the Falcon 9 manifest as we know it. I don't know.

Yeah, the end of the fucking 9, yeah. And also the whole reorientation of some of these Space Force communications networks to be like, let's just buy more Star Shields. That'll work out. Yep. And then data stuff, chip stuff. Yeah. If they start fabbing chips, man.

Let's go. Game over. All right, I got 16 grand in Rocket Lab here. All right. For my reasoning, as earlier, I think their plans for expansion become more evident this year. I don't think neutron's a big part of this, but I do think eridium coming in and then talking more openly about the now what is. has to have like they can't wait on that and still have a good product in the long run they kind of need to come in with an actual like i don't think they're doing that acquisition unless they have a pretty

strong idea of what they would then do and i don't think they're the company that waits around to go do it so i feel like that's that's an interesting aspect for the year uh global star jake I'm doing some arbitrage money making here. Amazon has announced that they're buying it for $90 a share. So I'm getting a little discount on future Amazon stock. It's a couple, five, six percent, depending on how it shakes out when it closes. How does this happen? What's going to happen?

Let's say they close on that in this one year period. So you're just going to get, like your stock's just going to get liquidated and you'll just have cash in the account? Is that what's going to happen? I looked, I tried to look up. how Investopedia would do it because I would have the option to take $90 cash or convert to Amazon stock. And the internet seems to think Investipedia

will just convert me at the appropriate rate. So I'm rolling with it. I'm thinking good chance to make 6% or whatever it shakes out to be. So let's go. You're going to do some marginal wins here on the global star front of it. I thought about that too with Arridium

because you can buy Arridium stock, right? You sure can. And I did also. So the last three have been about 15% of the portfolio. I'm spread around Rocket Lab, Global Star, and Eritium. Again, I can make like 10% on this getting rolled in, because I think they are acquiring at, it was like $54 a share or something like that. And then the conversion at that point is you get like $27 plus some Rocket Lab shares.

And if the Rock Lab's price is a certain point, you get more shares. So again, this is, we're going to find out what happens with Investipedia. I might have some cash in the account. I could buy some QuantumScape next year when I lose, or I get more RocketLab shares. So I'm banking on both of these. I'm banking on these acquisitions closing within the year and then doing well. And I feel pretty good about that. And I didn't, and this got me to buy Amazon without having you complain to me, but then you bought Amazon anyway, so I should have just bought Amazon.

So there we go. All right. I bought Intuitive Machines. Okay. Okay. Okay. Majorly down right now. Way down. Lunar has been, like, this stock chart is absolutely bonkers over the year. This is the one-year stock view, Jake. Huge pop in May. I don't remember why. That's a market trend. That's not a lot of lunar thing.

But I mean, you look at like the five-year, right? You can see when they launched missions, which I think, is hilarious. But I think they're going to fly. I think late this year is what they've got on the counter, but I believe within this next year, they'll fly. And I feel like they're going to land this one. So I'm banking on post-landing pop for Intuitive Machines.

If it happens in the winter to spring, then I'm in well-positioned. The only problem with the pop is that if the pop happens long before our next August show, Like, is it all just gone by then? Maybe. It's like, you really need this thing, you need them to like really nail it on July 25th next year. Well, all right. Hold on. I got one other part of this Intuit machines thing too, though.

Because they're involved in a handful of other things with NASA, including like, let's set up lunar communications network. And that's a thing that has been touched on in some of these Artemis updates and the moon base updates, but hasn't really been pressed upon. I kind of feel like year two of the moon base updates is a lot more boring-ass infrastructure

versus splashy landers and rovers. So, taking a flyer that maybe they have a bigger presence in that side of thing and that storyline, and they get lifted up by that as well. Plus, they have this giant NASA engineering contract that nobody knows about,

which, whatever, who knows? Feels like it's on sale, so. I bought a bunch of Black Sky. I've always, about 10 grand of Black Sky. Yeah, they always feel like the the nice imagery company that just like does good products,

they have their market in mind, they're executing on the thing, they launch they need to, they are military leaning. I've been, you know, there's been all these stories about imagery companies here and European ones delaying imagery out of the Middle East

as we've been doing more war and that's been a weird storyline. But I, Obviously, that shows you the relevance and importance of that product. So, thus I believe it will continue. So I also bought five grand a planet. Look at me. That's interesting.

Yeah. I looked at Planet and I was like, are they, remember we did a stock show like, I don't know, three years ago or something. Yeah. And one of the takeaways is like, wow, planet is still not profitable. I would know, I thought they'd been around for so long that they were like one of the original stuff. I thought they'd be profitable.

But now and they weren't at that time. I was like so surprised. They still aren't. So I was like, okay, I don't know about this anymore. So I was like, I'm going to just, I'm going to just pass on that one. Can you be a startup forever? We'll find out. Yeah.

I think that was my last one. I've got a shorter list than you. So we're more consolidated around SpaceX, Rocket Lab, Amazon, and then a weird intuitive machines decision. So find out who will buy QuantumScape next year. I guess is the theory. God, that's so funny. All right.

All right. I think we should go through some ones that didn't make it on these lists. Yes. Right? What did you consider and not include? So I had a candidate list. I had Boeing on there and I just like, no, can't do it. I just can't.

I have some dignity, so I couldn't do it. I don't know if there's much more to say about that. I had planted on heroes of Canada. We just talked about that. Redwire? I really debated them because they feel so responsible and hardworking that I feel like they should have made it make it onto the list. But at the same time, I don't know.

They have a weird presence. There's no killer app there yet. Yeah, there's no like. I think you, if either of us, I think you on the more like Golden Dome side should consider it because a lot of their, a lot of their bigger products have been defense or intelligence markets. But also these weird component things where it's like,

we're doing the solar race for that and we're the satellite bus for this. And no one really gets excited about that enough to be like, I got to, I got to own some of that. Yeah, yeah. They're like a pickax company, right? But, yeah, I don't know. I just, Red Wire has always been a little weird to me.

It's always been just a little bit like, what's your, what's your vision? I don't see the vision. They're just like, yeah, we just like doing stuff in space. It's like, okay, but like, what gets you out of bed in the morning? I haven't quite figured that out with them, you know? Have I ever told you the thing I heard once about Redwire's origin story? No. So I forget what the, when Redwire was coming together, there were like a couple of companies that were put together at the beginning.

And then they've added on different acquisitions. the years. At a conference or something one time, somebody told me, like, the origin story was literally find space or space-adjacent companies that are profitable and just jam them together. Like, we're buying space companies that are profitable. That's what it feels like. That's it. And then we'll, you know, backronym style, figure out the storyline on why these two things make together, make sense together later. So you're not wrong in that way. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. And that doesn't translate into stock wins. I'll tell you, based on their track record.

No. Weird. No, because like if you want like a stock win, you got to like find something that has potential and that no one believes in, take the risk and then turn out to be right, right? That's because then the market price catches up with reality. But like a company like Redwire, and sometimes I kind of think like Rocket Lab too, is there's such a slow like incremental buildup that the stock price never really gets too far from the actual profitability of the company.

And so like you'll never, you'll never become an overnight magelline error just by like, yeah, I put on a bunch of money before the earnings call on Rocket Lab and boom, me, maybe. Yeah, I'm retiring. Like that doesn't happen with a company like that, right? So. And to be clear, that's a good rate of run a business. Like, I admire that. Well, that's what I said.

I think they're responsible and reasonable enough that they should make this list. And yet it doesn't translate it. That is not how I, this is not good, you know, for, for game stopping. they're not going to be a meme stock that way that's for sure. No. Virgin Galactic still exists, by the way. Yes, I know. I have that way list too.

Still right by it. I have so little faith in that business model. I feel like we're, I don't know, single digit months away from bankruptcy. What do you think? Oh, man. I don't know. but they I'm trying to remember

the last update on when that thing will be delivered on Delta but like it was I don't know it's just like 17 weeks ago they resumed their ticket sales at $750,000

$750,000. I mean it's like that's even funnier okay oh look okay

we're totally flummoxed by Virgin Galactic by the way this is hilarious So, okay, imagine that, this is only 17 weeks ago. Imagine this. Your one competitor, Blue Origin, is currently not flying, has suspended. You have 100% market share in suborbital spaceflight tourism, and you're only selling them at $750,000. That's like half of what Blue was selling it, wasn't it?

Or weren't they over like a million? Like, why is that price not $2 million a seat right now? The abort motor must cost a lot of money And that's why Blue had to sell it for so much They're saving your room for the Life Insurance you have to buy on this thing I don't get it Yeah well that's exactly where I was going to go with it

The fact that that wasn't a bigger hook for Virgin Galactic To go out and be bold and be like We're doing it here's our deal we're going on a road show We're selling tickets we're doing like be splashy like you used to to be at the moment where your competitors like, we're pulling up the stakes on this thing and we're done. I found that incredibly weird and I took that as a sign

of them not having confidence on their actual roadmap with it. There's no urgency. Yeah. It's so weird that it still exists. Yeah. I feel like we knew some people that worked in and around Virgin Galactic for a little while. And I've talked to nobody in the last four or five years

that are related to them in any way. So I have no intel on this, but I also consider that kind of a bad sign that we have nowhere to pick the vibes up from. Like who's there? Are you still there? We'll know for sure one week after this episode airs if a bunch of people email us from Virgin God.

I would love nothing less. Yeah, I would love to know that. If they don't, that's a really bad sign. Also a bad sign. Yeah, as confirmed by her inbox the last couple of days, it has been great. So are you out there? Like, this is a call for help from us to you.

Help us understand what the hell's going on over there. Please. And they're also always weird about when they make these nonsense. Well, we're going to fly the flights, but it's going to be, we're going to do some testing. There's going to do some flights. We're going to do power flights. Commercial flights. You know, we'll get to it.

And it's like, well, this commercial mean you put a payload rack on and then it's a commercial flight. Somebody paid you some money to, or is that all six people paying 750K a pie? Yeah, I don't know. Also, the people that were just up next on the New Shepherd flight, like the guy that got sick and didn't fly in the last New Shepherd flight and then they canceled it,

roll up on him, be like, here's the jump the line fee. It's $1.75 million. And you get you're on the next flight, right? Give us your blue origin ticket for a discount, yeah. Right, yeah, yeah, it's like, yeah, bring your tickets double. Hilarious.

I don't get it. I don't get it. Okay, I'm going to roll down my list of things that one of us should have considered. Spire Global. Yeah, that's an interesting one. What you got? I don't have anything. I just went, I don't know.

You just know that they exist? They're one that is always interesting to me because they, there are companies like Spire, Hawkeye, it's ice eye i guess right i see e y i si si if like anything that launches multiple satellites they're on there somewhere they're always launching something on any ride share they're just like yeah yeah always going to space uh just in the background then yeah seems like a great data set seems like they have a market idea of of who's buying this stuff um and yet doesn't really i don't know what like the future roadmap is there, right?

They don't really... Is this all you're doing? You're just doing the kind of data... I honestly think, like, this is about Planet, too. Planet occasionally is like, we're going to do higher-res, we're going to do a new satellite bus, we're going to do this. I've been waiting for some of these companies to expand their data sets and try to eat each other's market share,

but they're all staying in their lane pretty tight. That's kind of weird. It is weird. It's weird when SpaceX is trying to eat all of your market share. share. All of you collectively that you're not trying to eat each other's market share. Yeah, that was a big fish, hey? Jeez. I don't know. I don't really want to say about that. It's like, I think you're right. There's like a, is this the market that big? Like, it's, it's, it's probably easier to just

grow into new market than it is to like try and steal. Right. So if, if that's true, then it's like, yeah, well, you know what? We're, we're growing like, crazy, we don't need to go after like the one thing our competitors doing just yet. It's not that competitive yet. I guess. I don't know. Maybe there, I mean, we've been told some theories about the imagery market and, and it almost being like a price fixing situation. Yeah. So the one I would list out there as satellite services, they provide one thing and they have ideas of what they could do in other places has been eridium over the years, where they were the classic Arridium network

and then it was like all right we're also going to incorporate this aircraft tracking ADSB hook in also we're going to try to sell this position navigation and timing GPS backup like we are going to try to find

some things that ride along nicely with the thing we're providing and that's something I feel like we've all been expecting like all the sudden SpaceX is going to have an imagery constellation because they can get it on the components runoff that comes out of the starship production

line or the Starlink production line. I don't know if they have. We don't know what's on the satellites they launched for the DoD, but I don't think those payloads are necessarily all, like, I think those are from, well, who's launching on the, the Star Shield ones? They said I've been like Northup Grumman tie-ins or something. One of the other defense companies has been associated with their Star Shield launches from a payload perspective.

But are there... I think Northland sounds right, but I could be wrong. Yeah. But are there like... Obviously, we've seen with Starship launches that SpaceX is putting imagers on Starlink satellites. Yes. Are they also doing that on other things and they do have a legitimate imagery line? That would be, I mean, we've talked about that before, having me, we're like, one day,

they're going to just turn on the Starlink cameras that they didn't tell us about and Planet Lab goes, evaporates, right? Yeah, yeah. Here it is. Planet Labs gone because all this is. data just processed on orbit and these orbital data centers that are all connected by Starlink laser links and down you know, town pipe right to your home. Holy smokes. I'm trying to come up with like a Star Killer pun here.

I can't quite get to it. Can't quite make the connection. Star killer base, planet. There's something there. There's something in there. I don't know. It feels immensely. I mean, so the hard part about that is that Starlink, those satellites are not going to be good

imagery satellites. It would need to be like a secondary imagery constellation that hooks into Starlink. So maybe all these companies, maybe Spire and Planet and all them are just hoping that SpaceX is like, yeah, we want to do imagery now. Here's a couple of B. Yeah. Unless like sometimes you get, SpaceX is really good at this. Sometimes you get to a point where it's just like, yeah, we have a competitor product. It's not as good as our competitor, but it's 90% as good for 50% of the cost. and you're like, that's it. That's all you need to do to take out a competitor, right? You just hit him with a Toyota Corolla and it's over, right?

Yeah. Yeah. I do wonder, we've talked about it a lot with the beginning of the war in Ukraine that how much the timeliness beat out resolution in that case, where more real-time imagery was, in some cases, better than really high-res imagery. And it was like, this is enough resolution to see what we need. Oh, but our pictures can read the serial numbers off the tanks. It's like, I don't need to know the serial numbers.

I need to know if they're there or not. I've already blown up the tank. I didn't need the serial number. So it's like, okay, well, here you go, right? If you go and look at, like, use Google News or something, right? And go and look at how much talk there was about so-and-so company being improved for 10-centimeter imagery and look at when those stories stopped being printed. It was, I would bet it's pretty cool.

close in time to the armada that was marching into Ukraine. Like, people stopped talking about it. And before, people would put out press releases. We've been approved, right, for all this, this kind of resolution, and we're bringing this kind of resolution, people stop talking about that. Now, maybe they're not talking about it to the public, and they're just talking about it to the defense market, which is maybe the case. But it was a thing that people would put press releases out about, and they do not anymore.

So. But who knows? When you look at the market cap of this, right? Like, Black Sky is just below a billion. Spires $444 million. I'm trying to see what, where did the other ones go? Planet is $7.3 billion, if my little data poll was right. So, and Black, what did I say?

Black's sky was just below a billion? So, I don't know, like, that's a huge divergence. between planet and black sky. Yeah. Is planet $6 billion more valuable than black sky? I don't know. I guess that's the argument I'm making, is that timeliness matters more than resolution.

Yeah, yeah. It's a good question. All right, no, let's review. Yeah, I was going to say, let's review real quick. Who do you think's going to win? What is your, what is your outlet? Well, I think I'm going to win, obviously. I do think.

I kind of think you're going to win, too, I picked it. Here's what I think is going to happen. I think you're going to win and get one point. And then you're going to win and get two points. And then I'm going to win and we're going to tie it up in three years. Maybe. Because I think QuantumScape is going to sink you on the three year.

So far, Momentus is sinking me. So we'll see how it goes. Who could have guessed that? But all that space needs money is coming in, too. so I'm bouncing out here. Our listeners are not going to cancel their space news subscriptions just to sync. Everybody's going to drop it Q2 next year so that we can tank Jake's portfolio. So I have a fun curveball to add to this as we get close to wrapping up here.

Oh, yeah. I also gave all of the rules and conversations. context to a chat GPT prompt and made it make a portfolio as well. Hell yes. It's short. We can go over it really fast because it, yeah, it was like, okay, I'll take the minimum three seriously and not go too far from that. So anyway, I'm going to send it to you.

A screenshot coming in. But it's pretty funny. So I gave it like, you know, I didn't give it any special rules because it's an LLM. I just said all the same rules. Like, you know, this is who we are. We're on this podcast. we're doing a fantasy thing, you get 100 grand, blah, blah, blah. And it was like, all right, here we go.

And it gave me, I asked it to make sure that it told me, like, you know, why did you pick each stock and why did you give it the allocation that you did? Just because that's going to be funny. This is wild. But I think the funniest thing about it, though, is it has no idea that SpaceX weren't public yet. Right? Because it's like, oh, my God. So it did not buy any SpaceX stock. But, yeah, so it's got Rock.

Rocket Lab up at 40%. So that's its big win. Here's the thing. Why I selected it, Chad GPT says, it's the closest thing to a diversified space infrastructure company, launch satellites, spacecraft components, and the upcoming neutron rocket provide multiple paths to growth. The company continues to win major government and commercial contracts. Not bad. Also does another buy an iridium. Yeah. It'll be thrilled when it learns that next year. And I said, why did you give it 40%? It's at highest conviction, large enough to execute,

but still capable of significant appreciation if neutron or additional defense business exceeds expectations and below the 50% limit. So that was funny. But then it starts to get wild. Yeah. Yeah, ASTS space mobile, 25% of the portfolio.

That's an interesting one. It's been reading a lot of the internet, Jake. Yeah, it has. You got on the cash tag threads and really. Is this groff? Did you do this through Brock? It says a high potential, one of the riskiest names, because execution is everything. So at least is smart about that.

All right. Yeah, it's pretty funny. Red wire, 15%. They call it the picks and shovels of space economy. All right. Okay. I'm into that. Lunar, Intuitive Machines, 10%.

Let's go. Me and you chat. Smaller allocation because mission, execution and risk millions high, but success on even one major program could have an outsized impact. Look at that. Same strategy as you. We've converged. Yeah. And then plan it, 10% as well. Yeah, give me the planet. It says lower volatility than some peers while still offering meaningful upside through commercial adoption. All right. Last segment of the show. Please ask, you have that thread open still with chat? Yeah. Please ask for an analysis of quantum

escape. I want to hear I want to hear where we're going. An analysis. This is going to be funny because it's probably going to, it's probably going to think I did a typo. I have to make sure I type it right. If it doesn't know SpaceX went public, it has no idea about quantum

space. Let's see. Okay, so thinking quantum, no, I got, didn't catch typo is one of the highest risk, highest upside battery companies in the public markets. The investment question is surprisingly simple, chat GPT says.

Can they successfully commercialize a fundamentally better battery before they run out of money? Yikes. I love when chat GPT is like, let me give you some wisdom. And it's like just the most trivial, like obvious thing that ever. You're like, thank you for that useless information. Please analyze this hockey game. Well, if they've scored more goals than their opponent, they'll win. Otherwise, they won't.

It's like heard happily from. Oh my goodness. Does that instill confidence in your $3,000 bet there on QuantumScape? The bull case, the technology appears to be real. It says this isn't Theranos. Oh, my God. Extremely, extremely validating. Yeah.

I really believe it. It says the Tam is absurdly large. One of the biggest we've seen. Oh, my God. Wait till it learns about SpaceX. What a nonsense What model was that? Are you...

Did you not give it access to the internet to let it look up if SpaceX is published? I just said instant, whatever that is, you know? It has access to the internet. It's always fucking Googling shit, so... Put it on an extra high next time, would you? Yeah, maybe. It's always Googling stuff. That's how chat chattchapit works.

Hilarious. All right. Anyway, so. I guess if people, people out there could play along if they want. Yeah, I was thinking about that. I don't figure out how to do that, but yeah. Should we make a public one to go along with it? Yeah, make a, sure, we'll figure that out and put it in the show notes.

Or just go and investapedia and make $100,000 and send us a screenshot. That's how I've been doing it with yours. Love it. So, look at that. All right, people. I don't know when this is going to land, so I don't know what to tell you about next week, but Jake will be back soon, I think. I actually, pretty confident now I know where this is going to land

and based on what we were just doing before the show. So we'll see. We'll see where this goes. All right. Well, you got anything, Jake? That's it. All right. Bye, everybody.

Enjoy the eclipse. Bye. Oh, yeah. One, two, three, four, five, four, three, two, one, into death.