Off-Nominal - 256 - The Ellis Number

Episode Date: September 11, 2026

Jake and Anthony talk about Blue Origin building the Mars Telecommunications Network, Stoke splashing the cash and talking up Nova Block 2, and Anthony has a weird theory about Jared Isaacman.TopicsOff-Nominal - YouTubeEpisode 256 - The Ellis Number - YouTubeNASA selects Blue Origin for Mars communications orbiter - SpaceNewsStoke Space Raises $1 Billion to Accelerate Fully Reusable Launch | Stoke SpaceNova Block 2 | Stoke SpaceWith another huge infusion of cash, Stoke Space goes even bigger - Ars TechnicaTrump White House just tossed a grenade into international space relations - Ars TechnicaGerman company becomes first in Europe to launch fully commercial orbital rocket - Ars TechnicaThe Exploration Company (TEC) secures $450 million in the largest-ever Series C by a European space companyEurope may finally have found a space entrepreneur who is meeting the moment - Ars TechnicaNASA Administrator Jared Isaacman on X: “@NASAWatch Few thoughts in response: 1) NASA has not given up on LEO. Within weeks of being on the job, I publicly addressed the Starliner situation and the role NASA played in it, and we have since taken a very active role with Boeing in implementing the investigation recommendations and…”Fetterman Has a Surprise Cameo at Trump’s Convention - The New York TimesNASA Administrator Jared Isaacman on X: “NASA is heading to the @NFL. @NASA operates a fleet of aircraft for astronaut training and cutting-edge high-speed and high-altitude research. In celebration of America’s 250th birthday, to showcase our technology and inspire the next generation, we are taking some of those…”Follow Off-NominalSubscribe to the show! - Off-NominalSupport the show, join the DiscordOff-Nominal (@offnom) / TwitterOff-Nominal (@[e-mail]) - Spacey SpaceFollow JakeWeMartians Podcast - Follow Humanity's Journey to MarsWeMartians Podcast (@We_Martians) | TwitterJake Robins (@JakeOnOrbit) | TwitterJake Robins (@[e-mail]) - Spacey SpaceFollow AnthonyMain Engine Cut OffMain Engine Cut Off (@WeHaveMECO) | TwitterMain Engine Cut Off (@[e-mail]) - Spacey SpaceAnthony Colangelo (@acolangelo) | TwitterAnthony Colangelo (@[e-mail]) - jawns.club 🐘Off-Nominal MerchandiseOff-Nominal Logo TeeWeMartians Shop | MECO Shop

DLS and go for main engine, start. Go at throttle up. Negative return. Hello, sir. What's going on? How are you? How's it going, eh? Oh, you're going to up your Canadian now that we're at war, me and you?

How are you now? How are you now? I'm going to have $5,000 not to spend on you, Jake. Oh, yeah, we're going to really miss that, that $5,000. It's going to be brutal. I mean, I guess I could probably spend it on you in Mexico. Hey, there you go. He didn't say on Canadians.

He just said in Canada, right? That's right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So you're good. You could do the reform party UK trip, where you just, you give it through a proxy and then it's okay. Then it's totally fine to buy it. Shell company.

Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. See, there's solutions to every problem, I think. Jake and I are going to solve this one. We're going to amend our nations back together. Me and you. We're going to try. This is the platform for it.

Yeah, this is where, this is where problems are solved. We got quite a rundown today, man. We got 100 space stories to catch up on. We have a weird, somewhere between a theory and a fever dream scenario I want to sketch on the future of Jared Isaacman as I see it. And now I read every story about NASA in a way of, oh, this confirms my theory for several reasons. So it's infected my brain. I'd like to infect yours. We've been like billing this.

Like we've been like, you know, like presaging this theory. And it's making it sound like it's like totally crackpot. But I actually don't think it's really that weird. So I'm really excited to see what the listeners think of it. Honestly, depending on what data is, I don't really believe it. So we'll see. We'll find out. We'll see. We'll find out.

I think I just want to prepare people. I want to prepare people for some options that are in front of us. Yeah. So I'm going to help them get through to change. I do Google News to see if any recent stories change my theory. I would like you to tell me about what you're drinking. Well, it's that time. So a year ago and a year before that, I had the bottle of mead, which is my very first batch.

Remember this one? Oh, my God. This is the firewater one or whatever. So as you can see down here, the bottling date was August 24. So my commitment was every year I'd open another one to see if it got better. Because it was not good when I bottled it and it was not good a year later. But now we're two years later. So we're going to see if time has healed this wound.

Wow. Wow. This is the very first batch I made. two years now, but making me mean for two years now. That's pretty wild. Sorry. So what's the newest batch that you made? I'm opening. What's that? What's the newest batch you've made? How frequently are you? Oh, okay. I just bottled a mango habanero, which is really good. And a blueberry earl gray. Wow. Like, so what's your frequency? That's like quarterly, monthly? What are we doing probably like every two two months maybe every 10 weeks or so yeah roughly so i kind of do

them together sometimes like sometimes like these two batches i did i could just brood them in parallel but then i might just like go a month right don't do it so i'll see it's all vibes based i like that yeah i don't know i just have a tonewood freshy another straight out of new jersey tonewood freshy that cute little tractor that people have been seeing lately so yeah my list of drinks will change frequently now that we're into football season that looks nice it's got it's good clarity does it look better or worse than you remember it looks the same okay well that's not inspiring nope nope is it is it supposed to be better like what did you expect to happen between then and now they they age like they're like wines they're supposed to get

better so the um like so the like so If you have harsh, like, the problem with this batch was that I stressed the yeast out. So it was like fermenting in just like not good conditions with like not enough nutrition. And so like they were, they say they're stressed out. They're like not doing very well. And so they let off all these like weird off flavors or like they're like, it's like bad alcohols. You know, like the wrong chain of alcohol. It's like not where it's supposed to be.

And so the taste kind of like rocket fuel is that the. And you're still supposed to drink this or should we not be drinking this? I wouldn't drink a lot of it, no. great but it's supposed to that's great on a show where I have no guests to carry this if something happens over there no that's not doable I'm gonna put that one over there and go drinkless on the show I think amazing see yeah if you remember last year I think it got better last year like a year in was better than the day it was bottled but I think two years in I don't know if it's better.

It might be worse. Turn the corner. Is this the last bottle of that around? No, there's two more. Yeah, I made four bottles. We're going to be talking about a presidential election the next time you're the last time you're cracking one of those open. That's right.

Yeah, yeah. Well, you might need it then. I mean, hey, you might be toast into one of my theories here. So we'll see what happens. Maybe, yeah. Is that where you want to start or do you want to end with that? no well we could if you want I don't know no I want to hear about your Mars thing you told me you got you were mad about this Mars this Mars story and I I don't feel like I'm uh I don't know if I

can get that exercise about this so I would like to to crack it into you Jake the Mars telecommunications network blue origin has won 700 million dollars straight from Congress straight through lobbying public pressure campaigns whatever you might call it Give me you the Jake take. Is there a source selection document for this yet? There isn't, right? I do not think so. Yeah.

Yeah. No, I'm not, so I'm not mad that they want it. I'm confused about how SpaceX didn't win it. Because it feels like there's no way to adjudicate bids against SpaceX's in a way that they would not win. You know, like I feel like. They weren't even really pushing for it, though, were they? that confuses me too either they didn't bid

in which case I'm like why on earth when they bid or they did bid and they weren't selected by some strange like I don't I can't figure out where along the chain that breaks down because to me if you're like well it would be really great as if we had something like a communication that you know something kind of like Starlink that was like at like Mars you know

like by a company that might be interested in Mars making like a product that's like communication is kind of like Starlink. Can you think of any companies that would be like really good at that and have like really good technology that's like proven and robust and cheap and like, you know, like can you think of any ideas there, Anthony? Like you know what I mean? Like I don't get it. I can't imagine an RFP that is better suited to that company.

And I don't know. I don't know what happened. What's going on? I don't get it. Do you have any ideas? I don't know. I didn't even think about SpaceX at all for this. Quantum Space also was in the bidding pool, so

there you go. Great stock, bye. I didn't... I don't know. That's a great point, though. Like, did they bid is a really interesting question. I don't... I sensed that, I think maybe I was just very influenced by this public pressure campaign from Rocket Lab and Blue Origin.

They were the only two. They were tweeting demo videos at each other. They were doing, you know, Twitter spat, it. They were, I mean, Rocket Lab sounds like they were lobbying via Ted Cruz. There's something going on there. So I think I took that as like, these are the only two that are bidding at this price. Maybe SpaceX didn't, again, like, we think it's not even worth launching for other people. Maybe this is like, it's not worth a $700 million. There's nothing. Yeah, but it's like, by their admission, that's, they're going to do it anyway. So like, you know, you kind of like

imagine a thing where it's like, well, we just get free $700 million to do the thing we were going to do anyway. But maybe they're not. Maybe this is the doubters are right, Jake. I mean, maybe it is, right? And that's the discussion. Maybe they're not actually interested in Mars. We've complained about it.

We've, we've, we've put them up for, hey, you've never sent something to Mars. Like, here, here, yeah, yeah, I know. But like two, like Mars orbit, Mars, SpaceX metal, thing that says made on Earth by humans, orbiting Mars. That's what we're talking about. I have one charitable interpretation, one possible theory, which is that SpaceX thought, I don't want to deal with any government requirements when I build my Mars network. I'm going to do it anyway. So I'm just going to skip this.

And then when I build it to my specifications, NASA is going to buy it anyway because there's no other option. And so, like, they're going to get that money anyway, but by their own terms. you know because like that's also true. If they have it all set up already and they're like, hey, NASA, by the way, if you want to use some of these bits, here's the price. There's the rate. Yes, please. Here we go. Here's the rate and here's the terms.

Yeah. Exactly. Right. And this is the tech. We decided what the tech. That's the best thing I can come up with. I think that's the answer. And NASA will read the terms of service.

But they're going to hit agree also at the end. They're going to scroll real fast, just like we all do. Yeah. Yeah. Sure, sure, sure, sure. We'll do that thing. Well, they'll write an RFP that goes out and says, we would like to buy a thing that already exists and then SpaceX will then just bid it and then, you know.

Or not. I mean, a lot of these DoD things that are happening that Starlink is part of is kind of like, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Kind of like, well, it already exists. So we'll rework this project, this program to make use of that. So, yeah, I mean, let's. All right, I think we've answered the SpaceX thing.

Give me Blue Origin Rocket Lab. Give me that breakdown. Like, are you, if it was one of those two, based on the Twitter videos they've been posting, did you have a vibe on where it would go? I didn't have a vibe on where it would go, but I think I would have preferred Rocket Lab to get this one. Not because I think the blue bid was bad. I think the Blue Ring thing is going to be as fine.

That's cool. I like that spacecraft, so I go for it, you know? But they've got a lot. And I kind of wanted to see the pie spread around a little more, I think. And like Rocket Lab, like, they're so genuinely, earnestly want to be in this space. You know, like, they really just want to do planetary stuff with NASA, man. It's like, I just really want to do that, you know? Big picnic energy of Rocket League.

Yeah. And they just can't quite break in, you know? Like they have like the escapade thing. But it's like they're not getting any of the flagship. They want to be Mars. They're trying to do it all. And they're just like, they're just not quite getting it yet. And I kind of wish they had.

I think that would have been cool. but that's my take. I felt like, yeah, well, I mean, on one hand, I wonder, do you think there's a Tory Bruno angle to this? Is this the first thing that would Blue Origin have won this if not for Tori Bruno leading that government relations program or whatever he's on now? That is also, what's his role called? He's like in charge of Blue Ring, I think. Is he?

I thought he was all like the lobby wing. National Security Unit, which includes Blue Ring. Oh. The National Security Unit owns Blue Ring? Well, I mean, that's how these are described in these releases. I don't know how... That's interesting. He's president of Blue National Security.

That's what his LinkedIn says. Yeah. Actually, he just says, yeah, President of Blue National Security. I wouldn't have expected that. and say like, uh, all right, it's like the Jeff Faust thing, right? Tori Bruno,

former chief executive of United Launch Alliance said he decided to join Blue Origin to work on important national security projects, comma, including applications of the company's blue ring spacecraft. So I'd maybe debatable. We'll get confirmation somewhere in one of our chats that he is or is not directly in charge of Blue Ring, but he certainly has been tweeting a lot of photos about Blue Ring.

And I am, I am surprised given that Rocket Lab, been working on hardware related to a lot like the capstone stuff and they've got Escapade all other things that intersect with NASA planetary science

feels more in the lane that this would be. Yeah. The heritage pick, it feels like. You know, they've got all their solar panels that are on a million things. They've got stuff that is now branded rocket lab that feels especially pertinent here. Yeah, yeah.

Yeah, I don't know. I think they've just been nibbling around the edges of that space and I thought this was the one they were going to break in on it, but... I almost wonder if the lobbying hurt them. Because they seem to be doing a lot behind the scenes to, number one,

get this program to exist at all as a carve out from... Because remember, the original construction of this was only companies that bid for Mars sample return could bid for this thing. and it had to be companies that included this thing in their Mars and return bid. So that further, that might be why SpaceX didn't bid, right? I wonder, did they have a relay thing?

Yeah. That's a good question. Yeah. I don't know. Weird. How do you feel about the program generally, though? Like, what is it going to relay communications for at this point? Yeah, that's a whole other really tragic part of it, right?

because it's like, I guess this is just like the dedicated uplink for the freaking stupid helicopters. I guess that's what it's for. Right? Like, I mean, the rovers are still operating, right? But you don't build the infrastructure just to like handle the old assets you already have, right? This should be like a forward looking.

We're putting a highway in here because we want a lot of people to drive on it. Right. So you, I don't know. I don't know what it's for. We needed this 10 years ago, you know, and not. today, but, um, or we need to like put the Mars stuff in the pipeline, right? You know, get it, get it humming again because it's not doing much right now. And that's another question I have is that do you think NASA is going to avoid talking

this up a lot because then if they talk like if they had a press comments about this, all we would ask about us Mars sample return and Mars missions and yeah, none of that's happening right now. And they don't want to talk about it. But then like why do it then, right? Like, right? If you're, if you're, If you're that afraid of the question, then why is the RFP even proceeding, right? Like, for their helicopters. They care about the helicopters. All they want to talk about is helicopters. Yeah.

I bet the only time that this Mars telecommunications orbiter or network or whatever comes out of Jared Isamid's mouth is when he's talking about skyfall and says, and now we got Blue Origin working on the relay satellite. Like, I don't. Yeah. They seem to want to avoid talking about Mars temperate. He'll mention it now and then in tweets. Some people might maybe ask about it, but they just, it's, I don't know, that's, I mean,

that's what we're talking about Dr. Z. Like, is this just, we're just not going to talk about it for a couple years and then try again later? Yeah. So maybe, I don't know, as a forcing mechanism, like, we love a sunk cost. Like, shit, man, blue rings on its way to Mars. What are we going to give it? It needs a job. Yeah.

Yeah. And maybe it's a, if you build a, they will come situation too, right? Where it's like, you've just got to get that up there. And like, this is a signal. it's like this is coming and now we have you know so maybe that helps some of the new any bids going forward now can say we're optimized to use the new thing that's coming and you know we're not going to be afraid of uplink because there's so much space on this you know so much capacity on this orbiterer building so we get to do these cool new things and maybe I don't know I won't see

hopefully that's what happens right but I uh I don't have a ton of faith in like new starts right now for a planetary like I just don't feel like we're going to see a lot of that for the next you know a couple of years so I mean I think it'll be a fun mission to watch though for seeing how it goes like how does the hardware perform how do they actually handle the services at angle of this how does it integrate to NASA's operations generally and it will be clutch like to be clear the existing uplink satellites that like perseverance and kreosso are using today they're old yeah yeah like you Mars Odyssey's still doing a lot of uh work that's 25 years old and then Mars reconnaissance is

Orbiter, which is what, 20 years old, I think, something like that. Like, they're, they're well past expiry date. So, like, those could go, like, that could happen tomorrow that one of those just fails. And it would not be a surprise. It would not be tragic. Like, it would be bad, bad. But, like, it'd be like, well, like, it led to good life. You know, like, it's totally expected for those to go away soon.

And so every time that happens, it's going to get worse. Like, I think, I bet you they're already feeling the loss of because Maven, because Maven did some uplink work view, right? And so it will serve a good purpose for missing assets. It's just I wouldn't build it only for that. I have a feeling that this is going to be the LRO of the Mars program, where it was conceived and launched in the last era of missions at that planetary body. And then it flies for a long time, almost solo.

And then at the near end of its life, it's like super relevant again. And all of a sudden we're like doing a market. NASA return mission and like spaces, SpaceX is deploying the data centers at Mars and like there's this burst of activity at the end of its lifespan. Because it's supposed to, I think they said like decade or more, right, for the lifespan of this thing. So it feels like LRO of Mars. Could be. Shout out LRL. Still taking great picks. And also like, I don't know what the technical requirement specs look like, but I would presume that they're going to plan some kind of interoperability with these things. And so like if they send another one afterwards,

they'll be able to, like, talk to each other and like, you know, build up. Hopefully that's part of it too. And so this is like a proving ground where then as we enter a future where we need a bunch more uplink, we can just skate, like, you know, just do horizontal scaling on these things and we're good to go, right? I mean, it's a great, great demo for Blue Ring too, because it's, if Blue Ring is shaped like, you know, an S adapter payload that might have flown in other vehicles, it's cool to, like, one of the first missions out the box to be like, no, it's a long-lived

actual spacecraft, not just carrying payloads places, but like doing a real work, doing real jobs. That's a great, great thing. I mean, this would probably be what, like the, they want to launch this in two years? I don't think this is the first blue ring that we see launch,

but it might be the second. What else do we know that they're flying on that? I don't know. We should have done homework. Pull it up. Maybe a national security payload. Yeah, I think so. Yeah, it was.

Space domain awareness stuff. They've signed. I mean, the Pathfinder was launched on the first flight, but I don't think that counts in the way that we're talking about it. Yeah, I mean, DOD stuff, I guess, right? Yeah, yeah. All right. MTN, you're less mad about it than I thought you were.

Yeah, I'm just, I don't get. SpaceX angle, but that's it, yeah. Scratch it off the list, Jake. I'm moving through our lightning round. All right. Sounds good. Stokes-based raised a billion dollars. Yikes. They are into relativity levels of funding.

Yeah, we're north of two-bilt. Every time a rocket company earns a billion dollars now, we just call it a relativity earn. Hopefully that doesn't become a bad word. Well, and they, alongside of it. They just got their relativity earn. They're done. for her. And look at the, look at the, that's so funny.

Yeah, they've hit their Ellis number. And they announced this and announced this, this vehicle, Jake, block two, Nova Block two. Would you look at this? Did you look at these drawings at all? A little bit, yeah, yeah. It's very, um, it's pretty falcony, yeah. except for the reusable the reusable second stage thing. Their signature tech, right?

Andromeda block two. Did you expect this yet? Because I expected it at some point, but I'm not that surprised by it because I feel like I mean, rocket development is just so such a long lead time, right?

and if you if you ever see a future where you wanted to have a big rocket and you have to because the small rocket is not a business right the big rocket's probably not a business as we've seen we've discussed very a lot recently right the small rocket definitely not a business and so like you have to get cracking on that and like well and think of what's the what was the the SpaceX timeline like I'm pretty sure Elon was like all hopped up on falcon nine and falcon heavy like before like sitting in some control room in quash being like is this thing going to work. He was like, well, listen, we've got to go to the bigger one. You know, like, he was ready to go pretty fast on that.

There was a Falcon 5, that it wasn't that in Berger's book, too, like, where they had to like, they had to get him out of there because he wouldn't shut up about the next rocket. And they were like, we need to launch this one first, right? So, like, I don't know, I'm not that surprised by it. And if they got

all that money coming, then that's like the assurance you need to announce it and start working on it, right? Yeah. I think I'm, I was trying to remember this before. hand. Maybe I should throw some robots at this challenge to figure out, because now they're calling original Nova Pathfinder. I don't, number one, they hadn't been calling it that, right? It was just Nova. It was not Nova Pathfinder. I don't, I don't love that. I don't love taking the thing that you

stood behind so firmly for all these years as this is it, this is the, and being like, oh, it's the Pathfinder. I don't love that. That makes me not have good feelings about the announcement. You think that's not a natural progression. You think something is wrong there or something's up? It's incredibly natural. That's the thing I don't like is that it's like, oh, that thing, the thing we've been talking up for so many years and saying this is going to change everything and this is the crem de la crem with our integrated heat shield aerospike engine thing

that makes second stage recovery plus. Oh, no, that's the pathfinder. Like, oh, that feels like you're just moving the ball on us and not like. could no i mean like that was this was a cool payload tiny right three tons reusable like not not big but this was a cool looking weird looking thing like this is this is a fun looking vehicle

now it looks like every other launch vehicle but you don't feel weird about the down the down scoping of i think it's just a name i don't know like what do you call it nova one or Pathfinder, like the outcome's the same. Like they're not going to... Yeah, but this feels like Taryn 1 to me, man.

Like, like, oh shit, it didn't work out. Like, we're going to move on and act like that part never happened. That's the thing that I don't like. Yeah, a little bit. But that's Falcon 1 too, though, right? But they didn't even launch this one yet. That's the thing, too. If this happened after the second or third launch, then it would really feel like...

I'll give you that. I'll give you that. You should at least... You should find some paths with your Pathfinder. Yeah. Yeah. But it's also funny too because every launch company announces the new thing and they say, we have this new version and they sketch out a future in which both might fly in tandem. Sometimes you use this one. Sometimes use that one. And then like a month later, everyone's like, no, obviously we're just going to retire that one immediately and go on to the new thing. Yep. Yep. I was trying to remember if the payload was always this tiny on Nova, though. Was it always three tons?

It sounds right to me. Well, now this site even says two and a half. So I guess it was, right? Yeah. I think I'm thinking of Neutron at like eight or whatever they've been talking up. I know. I know it was like it was bigger than the so-called like the, you know, the gang of one-ton launchers that was around for a while. That was Taryn one and the ABL one and Astra, right?

That was all the one-ton. Yeah. Alpha, yeah. Alpha. That gang, that gang that dispersed, you know. Oh, he did that. Yeah. I don't know. I don't get me wrong. I'm excited that they got, they're going to have a bigger one because that, that's more fun. That feels like what we actually need to exist. But I don't like acting like the first one that you announced we're all hot about was not, was never meant to be a real thing. I'm like, oh, no.

I don't know. Yeah, I don't know. I'm not too bothered by it. I just feel weird. They talk up. Oh, now we got, we figured out cylindrical tanks, right? We had this breakthrough.

We've been working on this for years, is what Andy Laps has said in one of the press releases or interviews or something like this. It has been in works for a while. We have a unique solution to the cylindrical tank problem, so we don't have to taper the top like we did with original Nova. And part of me wants to be like, well, if you figured that out, like, did you just figure that out? or did you figure that out when you started working on this?

If so, why have we continued to work on both things for this long? I can't quite make that connection. Yeah, I don't know. There's probably like, I mean, just like the manufacturing and testing process was useful, right? So like if the Pathfinder has like a significant amount of like copy, paste these parts over here and you're good to go, right? And so you have, you've used that product, right? Like it's served a purpose in teaching you all the things you need to learn and developing some of the core technologies and testing them and then, you know,

figuring out the problems and iterating like, you know, it did work, right? Didn't fly, but it worked. I mean, it's going to fly. They still are going to fly this. They haven't fully turned one to this yet. But all of this stuff on screen, like none of that's coming over. These are all the weird little conical thing. but even like the little engines inside of it or the you know the even just the general theory of the

like this new one's this new one's still going to have that like active propulsion heat shield thing right i think i can't really tell with this drawing that's yeah i guess so right yeah so they just figured us something with the flow of this that like they can do this very typical second stage but with this crazy little bottom integrated heat shield thing yeah something like that right All right. Cool. I'm in. I want Stoke to be the thing, man. I do. I truly do. I just, part of this announcement hits me weird. Huh. That's going to be fun. That's capitalism, baby. Like this, this is a cool looking thing. This integrated heat shield thing.

Yeah, it's cool. All right. Well, we've talked about heat shields enough on this show in the last little bit of time. Moving on. We've entered the Europe section of our of our show, Jake. Europe. Isar, Esar? Esar. Esar. Esar. Aerospace.

Isar. Esar. I was told by a man who lives near the Esar, that it's Esar. Esar, okay. Successful launch. The video of them make an orbit. The video of the most beautiful launch site in the world. You're not kidding, man.

I'm struggling at pulling this link up, though. Hold on. think that people in Japan are mad about that because they used to have the prettiest launch late in the world? You tell us people in Japan. Are you mad about it? I mean, they were in one of the all nominees, right, for their, uh, yeah, the explosion was the first attempt when that slammed back into the water. And they had that just incredible drone footage. Yeah, it was stunning, right? I'm impressed that they made orbit on this, uh, this launch here. Everyone's, everyone's doing it a lot.

quicker these days. A lot of new launch vehicles are getting up and at it. Love that. Getting better at it. Getting better at it. Don't love a night launch for something so spectacular like this, but, you know. Yeah, they don't have the excuse of timing their launch so that they have the moon during prime time, right? I can't do it like the way Artemis do. That's true. That's true. Yeah. I mean, it's still a great, still great video footage. Yeah. Now what, Jake? Lovely. They caught the bus. What payload size does this one have? I think this is in the, what were you calling it?

The one-ton gang? Oh, I just blasting my ears out. The audio came on at the same time. You saw our spectrum payload. I thought it was one-time, right? I'm pretty sure. Let's see. Survey says, one metric ton to lower Earth orbit.

700 to Sun-synchronous orbit. So yeah, is it dead on. Dead on in the gang. So how long before they announced that this is their pathfinder? That's the question. Spectrum 2? What's coming here, right? I love that.

Have they already? No, I don't think so. I think they just have spectrum. Yeah. Good on you. Let's see how long you can keep it going. No, they've got a different thing going, though. They got the Europe situation rocking, right?

They have Europe. So it is slightly different, yeah. Issa Launcher Challenge, maybe. Everybody's all up in it, right? Everyone's getting... I do love the ESO announcements of this, though. They're not only in the one-ton gang. They're in the only rocket launcher in Europe,

commercial rocket launcher in Europe gang, right? They just entered a new club that they invented. So that's good for them. RFA guys, you've come after me now, but... Yeah, of course they are. Oh, there's the Spanish one too. The Spanish guys that made orbit. Yeah, I'm pulling up this.

The Miora 5. And Maya space. Yeah. I think PLD space, this little, the second guy here is the Spanish one. Right, right, right. Right, isn't that it? PLD space, they're Spanish, right? Spectrum block two?

I said block two right there. Well, you get to a block two. Well, I don't know. What's block two? What's it say on here? Spectrum launcher. It doesn't say anything about blocking here. Maybe they just meant the second one.

I don't know. This program cracks me up, though. This is the most ESA program all time, right? Where they're announcing all these launcher challenge where like, they're trying to get initial launch capacity. And then you look at the funding and it's like, Germany sent funding to the Germans and France sent their funding to the French team. And Spain to the Spanish team.

And it's like, all right. Cool. We're just paying ourselves here. Yeah, that's very ESA. That is very European. We love new rockets, so that's good. All right. Lightning Round, the exploration company raised half a billion dollars,

relevant to our conversation about what's going to happen to human spaceflight. I like that. That's an amount of money that you need to develop actual spacecraft. That's a lot of money. That's not nothing. Yeah, it's not relativity money, but it's halfway. It's not an LIS number. different though right because yeah that's actually a great point

dig into why that feels different because it doesn't feel like launch companies should raise that much money before their first launch just generally I think people get nervous but then you know that like spacecraft going to the ISS need that amount of money before they launch their first spacecraft it's like totally inverse yeah yeah that's tough. Largest ever series C by a European space company.

That is a Jake superlative right there, baby. Largest ever, Series C specifically, buys company that is a space company that is in Europe. And they gave you that figure in US dollars. Yeah. Who run the world? Yeah. That is weird.

Why did they do that? you guys are the currency of the world. I mean, for better or for worse, right? Oh, I'm here for that. I'm actually intrigued by the fact that they're reporting it in U.S. dollar figures. It's a good way to compare it to other companies, right? Yeah. Although that looks bigger when you do it not in U.S. dollars. Then you can just, people are like, I guess that seems like an absolute ton of money because you have no comparison. Because euros would be smaller It would be less

But nobody knows Jake what they're looking at How much is assume That's what I'm saying So they just look at it You're like I have no comparison That must be a lot of money

I don't have anything to compare it to So I think I don't know I'm still This is the Europe The human spaceflight storyline here

Especially Did we talk about Isaacman's Twitter thread In response to Phil McAllist Was that on this show? last week, or did we talk about it? We did that on the pre-show. It was pre-show thing?

Yeah. You know, Isaacman's out there tweeting about Starliner, having a life past the ISS. Everybody's freaking out about Dragon not having a life past the ISS. We're entering a log jam time period where, like, it's 2026. We can't be doing this. We've got to figure out what we're doing if we're doing any of this. You know? Yeah.

And the explanation company, the only one raising this amount of money. Monster. Yeah. Okay, so you're one of those people? Do you think it's flying until 2040? Do you think it's flying until 2040? What year would you think the ISIS is coming down? I think it's going to be up there in 2040 wrapped in duct tape, I swear to God.

Like, it's going to be. Do you think so? You really think so? They'll just like close off that one module and, you know. Might be a couple by then. I mean, I don't know, but I can see that happening because it's just the the coordinated or the coordinated effort to like wind it down and replace it. It's like just, it's a big, big job. And like the ISS only came to be in the like confluence of some like pretty

big geopolitical events. And I feel like you need that again to engender the next one. I don't know. So the only way I can really see it like ending is if like someone figured out a way to like not like some politician figured out of the way to end it without it being their fault. You know what I mean? Like it's kind of like a, they'll do some action that makes it so that canceling it is the only option, you know, and then, but you do it like four years later so that the next guy is the one that actually has to do it, you know? But by that point, it's too late.

Yeah. Yeah, yeah. So that's the only way I can think of it happening. But I don't think you're going to have any viable alternatives anytime soon. And so it's just going to make sense like, well, we're just going to make sense. like, well, we're just going to squeak out of time, you know, one, two-year piecemeal at a time until whatever, whatever is ready. Because everything, even if you do have a good plan, it's always late. So like, you can't just, you can't just be like, well, 2030, we got to, these guys are going to be flying. These guys are flying. Starliners ready to go. Like where's that? This time, we'll hit this timeline. Yeah. Yeah, this time we'll make it four years out in the future. That's like no man's land, you know? So, I don't know. I don't think it's coming down in 2030. I'll tell you that much. So.

hypothetically a good way to cancel the ISS program without it being your fault is to take no action when there's a clear and present danger to the ability to fly to the ISS and you know that it takes longer than the ISS will last without people being up there that's fair I think we might be seeing that right now that's that's a good uh that's a good yeah that's a good yeah with it and and do that by way of the company that maintains the great way to fly to the ISS has no interest really in flying to the ISS with that vehicle. anymore. And you know that the people that run the ISS wouldn't trust the other vehicle to fly to the ISS anytime soon. I just, the only thing I keep thinking about is like, the whole Russia situation still wasn't enough to kill it, you know? Yeah. Like the other partner, the other major partner on the ISS invaded our allies and like is like public enemy number one on the world stage right now. Like they are just like unequivocally the bad guys right now. And we're just like, well, let's keep going up there and shaking hands. And, you know, like, like, that wasn't enough. Like, what else does Putin

have to do for us to be like, we can't continue our partnership? Get the Soyuz production line blown up, you know? Like, what else has to happen? Like, the timeline of like bad shit that can happen via Russia is like, uh, that's unbelievable. So I don't know. This is making me realize that everyone's been trying to figure out why does Boeing still want to do the Starliner program? And the only now I'm left with the only reason is that it's the only way the ISS program will continue on, and they think that will make money because that they're the prime there. It could be. It could be, yeah. Which I also kind of love that storyline, which like, you want the ISS to keep going?

Make a spaceship that works to get there. Like, that's on you. Starliner becomes their, the ISS becomes their Starlink. They don't want to fly the rock. It's more like their gateway. It's like their gateway. We got to do it. We built this thing. but seriously they get the you know the prime contractor gig is a couple billion a year right they maintain the is now it's not i don't know easy money but i don't know how much of a moneymaker it is like it's a service it's contract i think it's probably pretty fruitful it's got a little bit of a yeah so if you were to that's actually good math to do though so take the take the charges that they've spent on starliner and look at that as like their i s s investment fund like would that

deposit be worth the payoff of ISS flying to 2040? I think it would. I thought Starliner economics made sense without that, so. Well, here we are. Yeah. So imagine you get the Starliner money from flying these missions, plus the ISS going longer. That's got to be the bit. And so the most helpful thing SpaceX can do to Boeing is not fly Dragon anymore. And the second they realize that, maybe they'll keep flying dragon. Yeah. I'm sure.

I mean, dragon's been canceled before, so I'm not, I'm not holding my breath on that one either. Ouch. Uh, all right. Uh,

you got nothing on the space summit. You're not, you weren't tracking the storyline. A bunch of U.S. companies were going to go to Paris for a space summit and some state dinners, I assume, and then we're told by the White House to not go,

uh, because they were worried about making policy commitments or something. Jeff Faust went anyway, as expected. So that's good. Yeah. Typical rabble rousing that you're used to at this point as a Canadian. Yeah, it just washes over me now. Yeah, bummer for, you know, K2 and StarCloud,

who doesn't get to go have good dinners in Paris or whatever. Yeah, yeah, it does suck. Yeah. But the policy thing does kind of make sense to me, though. Like, I don't necessarily agree with it, but it's thematically in line with this administration, right? And that kind of stuff has bitten the United States before in different ways, you know? I don't know.

It felt like one of those defensive calls of like, well, we don't know what it is, so no. Yeah, could be, could be. I don't know. I'm kind of thinking like the whole planetary protection thing, right? It's like another example of that where it's like by showing up to this meeting and participating in this thing now to like beholden to all these extra rules and stuff, right, that maybe they don't actually want to do. And, uh, yeah. I think there was like some spectrum concerns, spectrum ruling concerns. So yeah, yeah, could be. Yeah, because that,

that meaning is probably a lot more important, uh, in the grand scheme of things than planetary protection, right? It's going to be like much more current topical, yeah, spectrum or, you know, space domain and, and things like that, right. And there's been those policy documents coming out from Europe that no one in the, none of the U.S. companies were happy about the way they were writing that. Which ones? There was, I forget what the policy documents were called, but they were like floating these new European space policy frameworks or something.

I don't remember the storyline. It's like tickling my brain a little bit. I'll report back on the next show about this. It was definitely a thing. What is that, what is it? What was it? What was the name for it? European space policy documents, space news.

because they were covering it. Anyone in the chat? Throw me a lifeline. Yeah, I don't, I don't, it's not ringing the bell. Oh, the Europe's, the European Space Act, the EU Space Act, is that what it was? Is that the one I'm thinking of?

I think so. I don't know, people were really mad about this. I'm scrolling back trying to find stuff too. I don't. Someone will give us a report that cared about this greatly. but I remember this being hot drama for a little bit. So. All right.

Do you want to hear my ridiculous Isaacman theory? I think so. What everyone came for. Okay. Jared Eisenman is out there doing his thing, getting all the press, reinstituting NASA flyovers at NFL football games this weekend. Sub theory,

Jared Isaacman is flying a plane over the Eagles game on Sunday. That's my bet that I'm, placing. I should put it in Discord, Goberts. Out there, you know, being a guy who has a reputation, he's going on TV a lot, and do you remember when he was ousted, when he was in that year, the wander, the year of wandering that he did? The lost year. The lost year of Isaacman's life and NASA's life. There were talks of, hey, he's going to go into politics, right? It was kind of rumored a little bit, people were talking about it a bit. Some people said, yeah, he was seriously considering this.

My theory, and I think you were there with me, that like, the only way he got back into this position was just because he's a political shark, that he played, like, politics to a T to get back into where he was. I think the TLDR is I think he's going to run for Senate in PA. I believe this is going to happen. John Fetterman is up for reelection in the, not this. midterm that's happening right now, but like the next one. In 28. 28. If you've been following politics in the U.S., you will know that John Fetterman is very

disliked by his party at the moment. And Republicans like him. Did he just show up at the Republican convention? Last night, yes. People think he might switch parties. He said he wasn't going to in the summer. Maybe he runs his independent, yada, yada. I have a dumb theory that Isaacman is still going to go run for Senate.

which would entail leaving NASA pretty soon. Like, we looked up when Federman was running, and he announced what will be, you know, February coming up on the calendar is when John Federman entered the race last time he won. Now, that was a very, at Senate cycle in PA was hotly contested. We had Dr. Oz was running,

the whole thing. The other senator in Pennsylvania, McCormick was running at then at the time, too. It was a weird time in Pennsylvania. So I have this, the Federman situation right now makes me confused as to what this timeline will be because I think that, I think that's beneficial to Isaacman running for Senate because he can't, he can't really declare and know what he's going up against until Federman makes a call on what he's going to do. Is he going to switch parties and run as a Republican? Is he going to stay as a Democrat and try to win the election? Is he going to run as an independent or something? I don't, I don't think that, I think that has to be answered first before anyone else really is a Republican. going to get in the race in any of the lanes, right? So I don't think it changes my opinion that Isaacman is going to bow out of NASA and go run for Senate because, once again, I believe Jared Isamon is an absolute political animal and many Republican senators should be happy that he

got the nomination at NASA because clearly he's good at politics. What we have seen in the last year is he's really fucking good at politics. Why would he leave NASA, Jake, some might ask, right at the time of all of the things happening, right? He's been talking up Artemis 3. He's been very specific. Artemis 3 is flying on a very particular timeline. Mid-2020-27. We're going to stick to it.

We're going to fly a mission that exists. We're going to do the thing, but we're flying in mid-20207. I'm accelerating the timeline to fly in mid-20207. All right, let's do that. Let's play that he flies something in mid-2020 as the head of NASA, and then gets to bow out, having, you know, research. shaped NASA policy for the next couple of years by canceling the gateway and getting political support to go and do that, by reframing the Artemis program, reshaving it, but then gets to leave

and not be there for any of the delays that we all think are coming. The stuff that's going to get delayed the most would happen right after he left. And he still gets the credit for, I put all these things in momentum, all this momentum was built up by the decisions I made in that, look how much I got done in a year and a half at NASA. That sounds like. like a politician move, Anthony. He's really freaking good of politics. Like, yes. Now, he's going to, he's going to greatly enrage like everybody in this because the nerds already, some nerds already have a touch and go relationship here with the Isaac Mitt, right? Like, he's had to do things, yes, to get in this position. We've heard that for other cabinet positions, right,

everybody had to admit to Trump himself that he won the 2020 election or whatever. And I would, I would pay someone, I would up, when I was trying to pay NASA $200 to FOIA the pictures of tomatoes, I would pay more money than that to find out how exactly he worded that admission, if in this nomination capacity, I think he had to do the fieldy pledge, yeah. So he's going to have to do political things. He's got a really good reputation right now for the people he would need to vote for him. He's going up against a guy that if Betterman did switch parties, though, also has a good reputation for the people that need to...

It would be a weird race. It would be very strange race. But... Yeah. I don't know. Like, if he were to enter office in that way, how interesting would that be to, like, have him in the Senate with the takes that he's been rolling out?

Would he do these long-form Twitter posts still? Would he be out there? I don't know. It'd be weird. Do you think he'd be... Now I'm, like, imagining him, like, in a future. Like, let's say he... he runs and he wins and then he wins again and he becomes like a you know a long-term kind of

senator and then he climbs up the clumped at the ladder a little bit and then he's on the CGS subcommittee and then he's on the space you know and he's like yeah right in the budget for these things uh that's an interesting that's the path i would think he would want yeah yeah because how like if you look at what he's doing at nassah and you like what he's doing in nassah which people's political opinion aside i think many people like what he's doing to nassah and would quibble over certain parts but in the whole feel like we're making and good progress through a human space flight. You know, he's cleared out log jams that we've been bitching about for years.

So that's good. If you're in that position and you're like, like, how, what other thing could I do to push my interests along? It would be to go be the, you know, the millennial version of Richard Shelby. That's the next. He's also young. Like, if you want to be really cynical about it, he's young enough that he could like run and win and then write a bunch of like really favorable policy and then leave politics go back to his company and take advantage of it you know yeah you could you go the full

circle uh for a young guy like him right yeah or be president you know or be president yeah i just give you president i'm not still now on as much man if you if you think that like he obviously has a political bone in his body. If you think NASDA administrator is the top position he wants, I would be shocked. No, no, no. I still think that he is the secret successor plan for SpaceX. I think that's where it is. Hmm.

Elon's not going to be around forever. That's a good fallback plan, I guess, if you're not president. You're saying his two options are run the country or run the largest company? Like, all right. Cool. He'd be well suited to run SpaceX, like, admittedly, right? So, um... Maybe. I don't know. Some of his recent takes have actually

have been interesting in that regard. Like, um, you know, that Twitter thought I was talking about where he's talking about what commercial was good and not good at. And like, he's not as much as a SpaceX Homer as I think people obviously thought in his nomination hearings. Uh, now, how much of that is who's the real Jared, right? Our age old question of NASA administrators. But still, like he,

those takes are, like, they were good takes. This recent theater twid, we should, we should be, we've been citing it. We'll link it. We'll link it. Yeah, we'll link it. But, like, they were good takes, but they were, they were in the perspective of a NASA administrator, and that made them, like, I think if he,

if suddenly became the new CEO of SpaceX, like those takes are still not wrong, but it doesn't mean he's going to like change what he would do at space. I'm like, you take the money, right? Like if you win the contract, you know, we think this is,

of course, like this. I don't think those are in conflict is what I'm trying to say. Just tell me though, Jake, that that him visiting the Blue Origin launch path the day after the explosion doesn't look like dude visiting place that just got hit by hurricane. Bill Nelson,

yeah, walking around. They're like, oh, does that not look like every governor or president you've seen visit a natural disaster zone? Like, if you are, like, all Jared Eisenman will ever be as the head of NASA, and obviously the next president that wins, no matter what party, will keep him on because he's doing so good, uh, I would just like to warn you that he seems very good at politics and very interested in

politics. And if you're that kind of person and you're a high achiever like Jared Eisenman already is, you, you just want to be the guy. You want to go be the guy. So whether it's veteran seat or not, depending on how the political winds blow, I think there's a Congressman, Isaacman, and our future. Yeah. So the only thing with the president part that I don't quite gel with is that he's such a, he's such a hands-on guy that I feel like he might be the kind of person that the president role would be frustrating because you just, you don't have the time to be hands-on on anything when you're the president. Like, you have to down. delegate every last thing. All you can be is just vision, right? And like an authority. Like,

you have to just decide. All you have to do is decide. You don't ever get to go, like, it's a, you know, to go and visit the hurricane site, that's a production. And when the president does that, like that's a big, big deal, right? And it's like that he doesn't really have time to do that. Maybe you shouldn't, you know? And so there's like the opportunity cost of spending an afternoon walking around a hurricane launch site is so high. Not to say that it is not epithetic to do so. That's why they do it obviously. But I feel like, so I just feel like like Isaacman would be much more.

From what I know, I don't know him. But from what I see him, I feel like he'd be happier the further down the local chain you get where he gets to like, you know, be in there with the town council. Town council, Isaacman. Maybe not that small. But like, Senator is good for that sense because like you still got to like, if you want, you can make the Senator job about the center job. of them will grandstand and look for national profile because they're looking to move up. But like if you want to just be like a senator where you just get in there in the weeds and make the sausage, you can. Right. And so I feel like that would be very suited for him

because you'd be able to have that good vision and get his hands dirty and make the real things and make a real difference. Pass some goddamn legislation, which your legislative branch needs to figure out how to do again. I don't know. That's my theory there. I would love one of the things that I love about the storyline, though, if he does go and run for office and win, is that Sean Duffy was getting a lot of flack during the time he was running NASA, that he only wanted to have that role because he wanted to increase his national profile to go on to bigger or better things in the future. And that Jared Ozzyman was the one that really cared about NASA. And I would love if it was like, yes, and yes, end, watch how many TV hits I do and

how many flyovers and weird, like, national events I do. And, uh, See you back here. I'll announce an event in Florida in November that I'll do annually in November in Florida. Let's go, baby. Like, okay, cool. Yeah, yeah. It's a good theory. And the nice thing is we don't have to wait that long to find out if it's true.

No. So my main prediction is it's Artemis 3. He's pushing for it to fly. Mid-2020, 27 would be late getting into the race, but maybe that race needs that time to develop. and that it would pan out well. Do you have to, like, I know it's common, but do you have to step down from NASA administrator to run?

Can you do it in tandem? No, no, it's a great point. It's a great point. I don't know. It's great point. I mean, I don't think there's rules. Yeah. Sometimes there's rules.

Sometimes. I don't know. I don't know if there's rules, Jake. It's not a lot of rules these days. Don't always follow them, but sometimes there are rules. I think he's said you could just do. things. So, yeah, I think he, uh, yeah, it's a great point. I don't know, because I mean, you know, nobody would expect him to stay on at NASA beyond November 27 anyway, right? 27?

What years that? No, 28? Yeah, November 28. Like, that's when he's done being the NASA administrator right now. January 29, yeah. Well, but I mean, you know, you take the holidays off. You're a lame duck administrator in the short time there, right? So if he becomes a congressman, which if he's a senator, is he administrator-senitor? Or what order does he go in? I'll have to call Bill to find out. You know what's really weird is that like this is the first guy that I could actually see continuing on through like a democratic administration?

Like he would obviously fit. I just think this. I just think the circumstances are so weird around it that it's less likely. But like this would have been one of those times where we could have had a 10-year, 12-year administrator again, you know? We say that a lot, but like, he's in, I mean, he's in politics, you know? Yeah. Which is funny because the reason he wasn't an assidator for that extra year was because he

used to also donate the Democrats. So like that's another aspect. How he would be as senator, I think would also be like, would he be Joe Manchin-like and kind of annoy everybody and be extra powerful in the middle, like. Yeah. PA's kind of a weird state for that. He's not going to run in New Jersey. I'll tell you that.

So he's going to stick to his new state lines. Yeah. Yeah, Bridenstein staying was another thing. People were saying in the chat. That was a thing. But then he, like, had a falling out at the end. So who knows? Yeah, he did.

Yeah. Yep. Well, are you endorsing this theory or non-endorsing this theory? I endorse this theory. Yeah. I think that's pretty plausible. I don't know if it's probable, but it's definitely plausible. I'm not going to say it's not going to happen.

All right. That's so politiciany of you. All right, let's see if my thing works, Jake. Do you see my screen in the back? My thing's in the back. I don't know. I haven't tested this integration in a while. Did it do the guest board?

Nope. It's all blank. It didn't work. We promise we have things booked, but this apparently does not read the web page. Oh, man. What are we doing next week, Jake? Next week, we are going to go back to our new favorite topic, which is reentry vehicles. We have Nick from Varda coming on. So we're going to talk more about that.

CTO. CTO of Varda, right? CTO of Varda, yeah. So we'll get technical. We're going to get real technical. We're going to find out once and for all whether any shields work. Yeah. Let's do more heat shield content.

It's in all heat shields. Yeah, TPS content. Do you think VARTA is held back by the lack of a national center to test these things? Yeah. It's coming your way. Hey, nice bemo bread shirt. You like that? OG union sponsor up here in Philadelphia.

So look at that. Largest bakery in the United States. Good fact. All right. We're out of here. Bye, everybody. One, two, three, four, five, four, three, two, one, end of death.