On The Brink with Castle Island - Weekly Roundup 02/20/26 (CFTC claims Prediction Markets, rogue AI agents, ETH's existential crisis) (EP.703)

Episode Date: February 20, 2026

Matt and Nic are back with another week of news and deals. In this episode:  Crypto VC funds have some dry powder CFTC chair Mike Selig asserts jurisdiction over prediction markets relative to the S...tates Is Kalshi more reliable than interest rate futures? The CLARITY Act inches closer to passing Shake up at Gemini OpenClaw agents are going to start phishing crypto users Bitwise aims to launch prediction market ETFs Bridge gets their OCC charter Hyperliquid launches a lobbying arm DAT hangover continues Blockfills reveals a $75m hole Ethereum is having an identity crisis Base is moving away from Optimism Neel Kashkari's bad faith stablecoin criticism

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Matt Walsh and Nick Carter are partners at Castle Island Ventures. All of these expressed by them or the guests on this podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Castle Island Ventures. Guests and host may maintain positions in the assets discussed in this podcast. You should not treat any opinion expressed by anyone on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only is an expression of their personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Brought down by bad mortgage investments, Lehman, which has 25,000 employees will be liquidated.
Starting point is 00:00:27 The federal government loans American International Group, AI, IG $85 billion. This is a different kind of market, and the Fed is asleep. The federal government is stepping it to stabilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two mortgage giants that have been threatened by the housing crisis. The Bank of England has pumped 75 billion pounds more into Britain's ailing economy with a new round of quantitative easing. You print a couple trillion dollars, and all of a sudden, people start to worry. So out of this worry, we have something called a Bitcoin. Welcome to Ron the Brink. I'm Matt Walsh.
Starting point is 00:00:56 And I'm Nick Carter. Kind of a slow week in the industry this week. Yeah, really not a ton of news. But busy week of Castle Island content, Wyatt sat down with Raj Perrek of the Monad Foundation to talk about stable coins, the next year of FinTech, enjoyed that one. Yeah, just a small handful of deals today.
Starting point is 00:01:14 Yeah, first one up is Novig, which is a sports prediction market. They raised $75 million from Pantera, multi-coin, and forerunner ventures. It's a pretty big round. Yeah, huge. Also in sports prediction markets, Pred raised a two and a half.
Starting point is 00:01:30 a half million dollar round from Excel Revery and the base ecosystem fund. It's interesting that all of these sports prediction markets kind of have a crypto angle, isn't it? I'm my wrong. You don't need crypto to do a prediction market, right? Now, I think the reason why it was so popular in the early days was just to get cash into the system in the first place. But I would imagine a bunch of these companies will probably end up doing tokens, don't you think? Yeah, because the regulatory ARB element doesn't seem to, we're going to get into this later. The regulatory environment has, is distinctly favorable. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:02:02 Yeah, it's quite favorable given the CFTC moves, right? Yeah, couldn't have been more of an endorsement of prediction markets this week. Yeah, you're right. That's kind of the big news. So we'll get to that in the second. Next one up is Ponder, which is a blockchain data indexing company. They're acquired by Monad. Ponder is a phenomenal name for a blockchain data indexing company.
Starting point is 00:02:23 What a great name. I didn't know that company that well, did you? No. We probably announced their round at some. point. Yeah, probably. Magna is a token management platform. They're required by Cracken. It's quite interesting. I wonder if that's a sign that Cracken is moving into the same domain as Coinbase, kind of helping companies launch tokens on their platform, kind of get public, so to speak. Next one, big raise here, Dragonfly, Crypto Ventra Fund. They've raised $650 million for their fourth fund.
Starting point is 00:02:54 Big congrats to Dragonfly. Wouldn't impressive raise, that is. Yeah, a lot of good friends over there. So huge, congrats to those guys. Challenging environment to raisin, as everybody knows. So real show of force and statement of intent there by them. What does that make them the third largest probably by AUM in the industry, I would think, if you just look at the vintages, right? So you have Indrisin, you have Paradigm, and then you have Dragonfly. I'm sure there are other funds that have more AUM that are more in the hedge fund complex,
Starting point is 00:03:25 but this is probably the third largest crypto venture fund out there right now. Yeah, and historically they weren't the largest, but there's so many of the big names of crypto that are idling or inactive or not raising new funds. So kind of a changing of the guard moment here. I think that's right. And good thing for the industry, too. Next one up is another fund.
Starting point is 00:03:48 So DBA, Crypto Venture Fund. They have raised $68 million for their second fund. So huge congrats to John and MJ. the whole team over at DBA. Yeah, you know, crypto's not dead yet. Still kicking. Still kicking. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:04:03 Good thing for downstream capital, right? I mean, good thing for startups to have funds with dry powder. Yeah, so big news of the week, CFTC chair Mike Selig filed an amicus brief, basically asserting that the CFTC has jurisdiction over states with respect to prediction markets, you actually saw some governors pushing back. Chairman Selle wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, released video, and basically said they're willing to go to the map for this. The CFTC believes they have authority over prediction markets and not the states. So I think we're in for quite the fight here. Yeah, I thought this was super interesting. So, you know, he has an op-ed in
Starting point is 00:04:46 the Wall Street Journal. He has a video that he put out on X. And he's basically just taking the stance that look, this is our turf, get off of it. And he's going to infuriate quite a few of these states that want to have oversight of gambling in the states. And I guess what is not said in CILIG's comments, I guess maybe it doesn't matter in his eyes, is that I think it's like 80% of the volume on some of these prediction markets is sports-related.
Starting point is 00:05:11 And so you can get why some of these states are looking at this and saying, well, look, we need to regulate this. We need to have oversight. And C-LIC is saying, look, these are, these are CFTC products basically. And so no, you don't actually have oversight. This is not gambling. Yeah, I'm seeing a big popular backlash to prediction markets out there.
Starting point is 00:05:32 I mean, especially given how ubiquitous they are in pop culture and with their advertising campaigns, having just gone mainstream in the last year, I'm seeing them being lumped into the same cohort as kind of AI and gambling and crypto. And I do see the backlash. And I think certain governors, and particularly Blue State governors, are recognizing this and realizing this political capital in fighting prediction markets.
Starting point is 00:06:01 Well, it's funny because with a prediction market, if you were putting up a prediction market on weather contracts or, you know, the price of wheat, I think maybe you would argue that's not gambling, but it's a lot harder when you have the exact same structure and it's around who's going to win the Super Bowl. It's kind of hard to say that's not gambling, isn't it? There was a paper by the Fed. Do you see this this week that the Kalshi prediction market on interest rates contains
Starting point is 00:06:27 information not captured in the interest rates themselves? That's what it seems like, right? Yeah. So there's obviously informational value. This question is, is there a kind of social disutility that comes with encouraging regular folks to gamble on what words the president says that the state of union or whatever. Well, it's one of those things where you can get pretty abstract with it because at some level you could argue that insider trading is actually beneficial in certain markets because you just get all the information out there. And to some degree, that seems to be what's happening with some of these contracts.
Starting point is 00:07:03 Yeah, Vitalik had a good post about this as well. Basically saying that prediction markets need to move away from noise traders to kind of natural hedgeros, which is something we've said on this show a lot. So if it's just noise traders, he didn't write this, but they'll eventually just go bankrupt to the informed flow. So you need people that are natural buyers of these products, basically people to want to hedge real-world events. But you have a chicken and egg problem. You need enough volume and liquidity for the hedging to work. So it's not even clear to me that they're useful for hedging yet.
Starting point is 00:07:36 I think it's dominated by basically noise traders. Yeah, I guess that's right. I mean, to the extent that it is used for hedging, it's probably only a few bigger institutions that are just actively trading these things, right? So I don't get the sense that you have like agricultural traders using this or, you know, oil trading shops getting involved in prediction markets yet.
Starting point is 00:07:59 That could be wrong. The most interesting market for me right now is, I like the geopolitical markets because it's always hard to compress very noisy, information streams into a single figure of is, you know, X event likely to happen. So I actually find that it enormously valuable. The U.S. striking Iran market is the one I'm watching. Yeah, I had not been watching this, but where do we stand right now? Because I have been monitoring just the open source intelligence tweets about the military buildup over there, the U.S. military
Starting point is 00:08:31 buildup. Yeah, I mean, it's a coin flip by March 15th. And it's a 76% by the end of the year. So I actually think the markets are underrating the odds of a streak. I think it's a little higher than the market says. I mean, it seems like we have more bodies over there and more planes and tankers and things like that than we have since the Iraq war, if you believe what you're seeing in terms of just these sites that monitor the flight paths and things like that. Yeah, I mean, the amount of military hardware in that theater is just unbelievable. The market I'm actually watching the closest is, will the Clarity Act be signed into Lod? in 2026. We've mentioned this on the past few recordings of this podcast. So at this time last week,
Starting point is 00:09:15 we were at 56%. Right now, we're at 84% that that bill gets signed into law. Yeah, I guess we don't have a news item on this, but from people that are in Washington, it seems like talks are still underway. Yeah, and there was a conference at Mar-a-Lago this week. I think it was yesterday, actually, a crypto conference and Brian Armstrong went on TV and basically said that this is going to get signed into law. The follow-up question was around, well, aren't you guys still arguing about something? And he said basically it's going to get figured out. So it absolutely spiked after his comments. Do you have a sense of where the compromise ended up being hashed out in terms of stable
Starting point is 00:09:57 on yield? No. And I think that there's supposed to be another meeting on it potentially this week. but that's the type of thing that tells you that there's probably something happening behind closed doors between Coinbase and the banking lobby, don't you think? Yeah, I know I have a kind of minority and overly zealous and uncompromising view on this, but I strongly feel that no deal is better than a bad deal. Because I don't want to enshrine banks yield superiority forever.
Starting point is 00:10:29 And I think this could just lock it in. and lock us into a bad system that's bad for consumers for decades. Because I don't think we're going to revisit this anytime soon. Don't you think it could get revisited through the courts, though? Yeah, I would have to be. But it feels like a bad gamble. And I do think a lot of the other stuff will just get hashed out and guidance from the SEC and the various regulators. The thing with that is that you have to get something signed into law here
Starting point is 00:10:57 so that you can actually have rulemaking happen under Atkins and Seelig. That's what you want. You don't want the next administration actually writing the rules of this bill. Yeah, so positive trends on clarity. Yeah. Keep following that. Do you see what happened with Gemini this week? Yeah, so big departures at the exchange.
Starting point is 00:11:18 I guess it's called Gemini Space Station now. That's the official name of the company. Yeah, I think that's right. I've got some of the stickers. They're pretty cool. So the CFO and CLO all left about six months. after the IPO, the stock is down. That's not unique to Gemini.
Starting point is 00:11:37 Of course, all crypto public equity is down. But yeah, departure of Marshall Beard, who was a long-time member of the leadership team there. Yeah, one of the all-time good guys in the industry. So it was sad to see that. It looks like a little bit of a pivot and strategy. They came out and said that they're going to exit the international markets and just focus on the U.S.
Starting point is 00:12:02 also said that they're going to be using more AI internally. So there's going to be some cost reductions there. And that they're going to be leaning into prediction markets, which seems like they've kind of had that plan for a while. So prediction markets pivot back to the US only and cost cutting through AI. Yeah, I think the problem with this cycle, assuming it's, you know, not expansionary for now. The problem with this cycle is too short for a late stage crypto company to put together a few
Starting point is 00:12:37 quarters of solid earnings and go public. You know, it's just a year is not long enough. Well, the other thing is just what is the minimum viable revenue to get public these days? I mean, the rule of thumb used to be over 100 million, then it was over 200 million. It feels like these days you almost have to have 500 plus million dollars to be a company of scale on the public markets. Yeah, because it comes to such a hassle. It's almost not worth it to be public anymore. Yeah, it's just the reporting requirements, I mean, the infrastructure that you have to build up.
Starting point is 00:13:08 And then, of course, you have to perform, right? So you have to be hitting your numbers. It's kind of going to be interesting to see when these money losing AI companies go public in the back part of this year. There could be $3 trillion newly minted public companies here and Open AI Anthropic and SpaceX. It's kind of crazy. Anthropic is growing by 10x Eurovision. I think they have 10xed revenue three years in a row. That's absolutely staggering.
Starting point is 00:13:35 Yeah, I saw Metter posted a chart comparing their growth in opening eye. I just feel like Anthropic has a smaller Tam because, you know, they're providing a really performant model to developers, whereas opening eyes providing a quite good model to everyone on the planet. So I think that's just bigger Tam. I think Anthropic, though, is up to like 20% of their revenue is retail. I feel like they've penetrated that demographic of, you know, smart programmers. They use Claude code.
Starting point is 00:14:07 Did you see that the OpenCla developer was hired by OpenAI this week? Yeah, I thought that was pretty funny. What do you think they gave him? Who knows? But this does confirm in some, it's more evidence from my suspicion, my theory, that people want their models to be conscious. so they want the models to have some kind of personhood. Because that's like the appeal of these open claw models
Starting point is 00:14:34 is they live in a box and they don't just get turned off arbitrarily. They have state. They have memory of a sword. They have a personality. I think that's the direction of travel. People want the models to be almost human. Yeah. And we're going to just going to come a day, a couple of years from now,
Starting point is 00:14:52 we're going to realize, oh, we've actually endowed these models with consciousness. I had a couple of people reach out to me this week asking if they should set up open claw to trade crypto for them. Because their theory was that they would set it up and then this thing would just be making money. I'm like, I don't really think that's going to work. Yeah, I mean, that's one of the worst ideas I've ever heard. But people are doing them to do prediction market arbitrage bots. Yeah, it does seem like there is some opportunity there potentially. But yeah, really interesting developments.
Starting point is 00:15:24 All right, next one up. staying on the AI theme, Open AI and Paradigm have partnered to release something called EVM Bench, which is a new benchmark designed to test AI agents' ability to identify smart contract vulnerabilities. It's pretty interesting, especially on the back of a few months ago, anthropic being able to, would they steal like a million dollars, or they prove that they could easily steal a million dollars just sitting out there in smart contracts? Yeah, I mean, this is the thing that worries me. People are going to have their agents. They're to tell them just go make money. I don't care how and they'll probably think for themselves,
Starting point is 00:16:00 all right, well, stealing crypto is probably the easiest way. So I think every smart contract is going to be probed from every direction. And it worries me because I think the offensive tools are getting better, fast than the defensive tools are. Yeah. So obviously, there's a lot of great people working on the defensive side and we're investors in many of them. But you're putting really sophisticated technology in the hands of anyone on the planet, they're going to start going after crypto. I think that's exactly right. And I think there is going to be a three to six month period where, you know, smart contract developers and users generally are at a big disadvantage.
Starting point is 00:16:42 And I think that's this year. Yeah, I think that's probably right. This stuff is moving so fast on the AI side. And there are just some just really low-hanging fruit vulnerability. sitting out there, I'm sure. I mean, if you can have kids with just scripts of stealing money, imagine what a smart AI can do. Yeah, I mean, think about some of the biggest exploits in crypto history.
Starting point is 00:17:07 Some of them are very sophisticated, like the by bit hack, but some of them were incredibly unsophisticated, right? Like the, remember DevOps 199? Is that the guy that just nuked all the, he just, he just incinerated the crypto, yeah. Yeah, like, I don't know if that was just. from the parody hack. Maybe it was different. But there was a smart contract like the Gnosis, maybe.
Starting point is 00:17:29 I thought that was the parody hack, actually. It might have been. So there's some smart contract that he just called a command on chain, killed it, and immobilized the crypto. And that was just one guy tooling around in his garage. So now imagine thousands of these people with incredible technology that's just as smart as any nuclear physicist or 100x, you know, engineer at Google, and they're pro-ering every smart contract from every angle.
Starting point is 00:17:58 Yeah. Things are going to break. They are. I think that's exactly right. All right, moving on here, Bitwise is seeking SEC approval for prediction shares, which is a set of ETFs that would track prediction market odds on the 2028 elections. It looks like they have a presidential one. So basically, you can buy into this ETF if it gets approved on whether or not you think
Starting point is 00:18:21 the Republicans are going to win. You could also buy into a separate product if you think the Democrats are going to win. Same idea for the House and the Senate. I guess I don't see any reason why this wouldn't get approved, given what's happening with the CFTC now. That's fascinating. So how would it work exactly, though? I mean, is it the same structure as the prediction market where it trades at a discount to,
Starting point is 00:18:42 you whatever, a dollar? Because I'm wondering how they would keep it in line with the odds. Yeah, I guess we could read through the S-1s and see how it works. but, you know, wouldn't it just be pooling interest in the vehicle goes out and actually buys it on the prediction market? So depending on when you get in, it would just trade at a premium or a discount to the underlying value. And in theory, you should be able to arbitrage it against the underlying prediction market, assuming it's a derivative of a derivative. Pretty interesting, though. Looks pretty cool.
Starting point is 00:19:17 I mean, if you could end up buying that in a brokerage account, you could see how that could be very, very popular. definitely a lot easier than just going and doing it yourself if you're just someone that has a brokerage account right do you remember when ftx went down part of their liabilities were the trump win contracts i do 24 yeah i don't know what happened with those i don't know if those i'm sure they got dollarized right must have been people need to just stop tweeting about how sam was such a good investor i'm getting so triggered by all these tweets it's like yeah he invested anthropic, but he did it with other people's money. Just stop tweeting about this. Yeah, I mean, he was definitely at the right place, the right time. He was in EA in San Francisco in 2022 when
Starting point is 00:20:00 AI was getting started in a big way. Of course, that's the right place, the right time. And the only problem was he wasn't investing in a valid way. Right. So I gave him credit for getting the timing right, but no credit for doing it illegally. Who do you think is running his ex-acad right now. I think it's actually him. You think he actually has a phone in there? I think you get phones smuggled into prisons these days. That's crazy if that's actually him, because it says not actually SPF. Ryan Slamy's tweeting too. He is, but don't you think that's just Michelle Bond? I think it's him. Maybe. I guess I'm not up on the things you can and can't do in prison, luckily. I would want a phone too. Of course you'd want a phone. Yeah. I don't.
Starting point is 00:20:50 I mean, forget heroin or contraband. Just get me Twitter. It gave you some prediction markets. I can't go seven years without looking at Twitter. Are you kidding me? Didn't Schrelli have like a phone and wasn't he active in D5 markets when he was in prison? Yeah, I think it's something like that. Yeah, I mean, you got to have a phone.
Starting point is 00:21:08 You need to know what's happening on the timeline. It's definitely one of the worst parts about going to prison. I'm sure it's just that you can't have the internet, right? That and the fact that you're just not free. Imagine trying to catch up on seven years of time. timeline. Yeah, I mean, imagine being Ross Ulbric coming out of jail and Bitcoin is what it was back in, when did he go jail? Like, 2013, 2012? You know, you come out and it's a different ballgame. And he didn't have a phone. He had to communicate via letter, I think. Yeah. So that was the real old
Starting point is 00:21:38 tool. No, I think it's different now. I think prisons are very porous. Moving on here, Bridge, which is the Stripe-owned stable coin infrastructure company. It looks like they have received conditional approval from the OCC on a new bank charter. So a bunch of these charters getting approved. Very exciting. It means that these companies don't need to go to all 50 states under money transmission licensing, which is just such an obvious thing to fix.
Starting point is 00:22:03 So I'm glad that that is finally getting ironed out. In personal news, the Hyperliquid Foundation has created the Hyperliquid Policy Center and Jake Trevenzi will be leading it, formerly variant. hyperliquid of course is a decentralized perps exchange they're not available to us customers but they will be lobbying for defy in Washington yeah that's a pretty interesting development
Starting point is 00:22:28 hyperliquid obviously you know i don't think they've really done any public policy work to date i guess you could say it's only what 18 months old is a project but it's one of the biggest projects in the whole industry so makes sense that they would have a policy center interesting timing coming on the back of Kyle Samani kind of saying that it's a kind of a rogue outfit I'm paraphrasing there yeah they are professionalizing presence in Washington I mean it actually kind of I don't want to make this comparison it does remind me of FTC a little bit how so well an offshore exchange lobbying aggressively in D.C it's a little bit odd you know like So maybe the best thing is just keep your head down.
Starting point is 00:23:15 I don't know. To be fair to them, I mean, it's a, it is an offshore exchange, but it's not custodial. So it's not like they're stealing the money, you know, although I guess it is close source. Interesting piece of news this weekend, Dats. We haven't really touched on the Dats much recently. They're not doing well. Dats are down. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:23:33 Why? Did something happen? There was a Bitcoin Dact called Kango. Have you heard of this one? Never heard of it. can go, could not go. They sold 55% of their Bitcoin. It's the fourth biggest dat sell ever.
Starting point is 00:23:50 Their share price had fallen 60% since adopting a Bitcoin standard, down 80% from all-time high. They're now focusing on AI. Oh, pivot to AI. What do you buy as an AI debt, though? They just say that they're doing distributed computing for AI. I think that they are a Bitcoin minor or something. Interesting. Yeah, they're a Bitcoin miner.
Starting point is 00:24:17 So maybe calling them a dad's actually not entirely fair. I think they're a minor. But anyway, they've sold Bitcoin. Some of these dads, man, I don't know. Nakamoto one was in the headlines this week. I guess they're buying the conference business for the Bitcoin. And the fund, UTXO management. They bought it.
Starting point is 00:24:38 been completed. So a lot of people upset about that. That one's down, I don't know, 90 plus percent. It was the worst performing stock in the whole index over the last six months. Is that right? And it's actually going to be delisted if they can't get their stock up to a dollar. Geesh. Yeah. These debts, a lot of them have not capitulated yet. So maybe that's kind of one of the things that's weighing on this market here is you look around, you just see a bunch of dads that are going nowhere sitting on Bitcoin. Really the only thing to do is sell it. Yeah, I agree. Actually, think investors are looking at the DATs and looking them as kind of powder kegs that haven't exploded yet. And that's weighing on the price because it's an unresolved liability.
Starting point is 00:25:24 I think that's spot on. The other thing that we talked about last week in the unresolved liability category is this company block fills, the digital asset lending company. So when we recorded last week, we said they had halted withdrawals. We're kind of, kind of unclear, like, who their customers are. They seem to be a pretty scaled company, but no one really knows who they work with. They came out this week and said that the loss is $75 million. So, you know, a lot less than what could have been a disastrous situation, I suppose. They said they're looking to get sold.
Starting point is 00:25:56 It's kind of hard to sell a company that is in the hole for $75 million. So it'll be interesting to see if anything materializes there. Yeah, I don't think that counts as a major body floating on the surface. No, not at all. That's too small. Not at all. So I guess good news overall on that one, right? Yeah, maybe there's something else to come.
Starting point is 00:26:18 Or maybe there's no single explanation, and it's just a tough market. In other personnel news this week, Tamaz Stanzak announced that he is stepping down from his role as the co-executive director at the Ethereum Foundation. It appears that he was only there for a little bit under a year. year. So what do you make of this? Yeah, there's been kind of some human capital flight out of Ethereum recently, right? Towards tempo. Yeah, who is it? Was it Justin Drake the joiner? Is it Dancrad? Is Dancrad? Dancrad joined. And, you know, I think Ethereum's having a bit of an identity crisis. It always has this, but they now Vitalik is second guessing the L2 model. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:27:08 Which was kind of the whole deal for Ethereum for the last eight years. So I don't know how you can really. What's even left of Ethereum if they don't have the L2 approach just scaling? Well, I sort of interpreted his blog post as saying we need to just enshrine an L2. Like we need to kind of, maybe arbitram optimism, that was the way, but we should have just done it ourselves. Yeah. And base is moving away from optimism now. Yeah, there's some news this week that Coinbase is sort of pulling away from that ecosystem,
Starting point is 00:27:44 maybe going to roll their own, which I guess they're probably paying a bunch of money to the optimism group. And maybe it doesn't make sense to do that anymore. Yeah, I think Ethereum is stuck in some ways because on the institutional side, it seems like something like a Canton is doing pretty well. so I don't know if Ethereum will be able to attract all of those RWA flows, which was part of the thesis. Then on the scaling front, it's obviously architecturally inferior, in my opinion, to something like a Solana or a Monad. So I think they're a little stuck. And I'm not really one to bet against Ethereum, but I think they need to figure out what they want to be.
Starting point is 00:28:31 it's a good thing that they still have the founder there in some respects I think right he's sort of everyone kind of looks at Vitalik as all right what should the roadmap be yeah and that is the good thing is that they can pivot if they have to and he can make those hard decisions he's got the ownership and the agency to do that it's going to be interesting if he ever walks away I'm sure he will at some point is just what does governance look like in the Ethereum ecosystem without the benevolent dictator and for now it's actually useful for them to be a little more centralized and nimble, especially someone like quantum shows the merits of centralization. That's one of the reasons I don't want to count a theorem out. Like their quantum strategy has been incredibly proactive. Well, that would be my number one critique, actually. It's just that they haven't been centralized enough, you know, from a leadership perspective.
Starting point is 00:29:24 Well, it's because you kind of, you're facing this regulatory issue where you want to be as decentralized as possible, and then things shift suddenly, and now centralization is actually more useful for you. So I don't blame them necessarily. Yeah. So did you see the feds Neil Cash Carey came out this week? He called crypto utterly useless,
Starting point is 00:29:46 and he said that stable coins are a buzzword salad. It's starting to think that Neil Cash Carrey doesn't really like crypto stuff. Yeah, I mean, nothing really new for him there. I thought his stable coin critique was in relatively, relatively bad faith because he was basically pointing out the very obvious fact that if you're using stable coins across border you still need to get the last mile and stable coins don't solve that which is true yeah no one's contesting that but that's just a feature of the mark that's how the world is so it's not the fault of stable coins that most sovereign countries have their own currencies
Starting point is 00:30:22 and that introduces friction that's not stable coins fault that's a government that's a government thing Yeah. That's just because we have a Westphalian nation state model and they issue their own currencies. That's their fault. It's not our fault. Yeah. I don't think he wants to come around. I think we've lost him.
Starting point is 00:30:41 Yeah. I mean, it's just a very bad faith critique. Oh, so the merchant in the Philippines doesn't accept USDT? Well, first of all, they increasingly do. So that's just reality. And then second of all, fine. You know, there's ways to go from USDT to PHP quite easily. so we're getting more and more efficient.
Starting point is 00:31:01 The last mile is still the biggest cost on the stable coin sandwich. But, you know, the thing is, I don't even trying to convince these people anymore. There's no convincing them. And if you look at the metrics for these companies that are doing this stuff, they're exceptional. So that's all that matters. Yeah. And if he doesn't catch on and the academics don't get it, it doesn't actually bother me anymore. The truth is out there.
Starting point is 00:31:26 All right. So I think that's a good place to leave. it. We're up against the clock here, so we're going to wrap it up. Everybody have a safe and healthy weekend, and we will see you on Monday.

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