On The Brink with Castle Island - Weekly Roundup 06/27/25 (Bitcoin for mortages, Fiserv adopts stables, Fed drops reputation risk) (EP.639)

Episode Date: June 27, 2025

Matt and Nic are back for another week of news and deals. In this episode:  Golden age of prediction markets NYC mayor's election What's happening with Canton? The FHFA says crypto can be a qualifyi...ng asset for mortages Our thoughts on the market structure bill The significance of the Fiserv stablecoin pilot $500m public access vehicle for BNB The Fed drops reputational risk in bank supervision EO for debanking is rumored Kraken HQ is moving to Wyoming Texas buys Bitcoin Will banking hours be obsolete? 

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Matt Walsh and Nick Carter are partners at Castle Island Ventures. All of these expressed by them or the guests on this podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Castle Island Ventures. Guests and host may maintain positions in the assets discussed in this podcast. You should not treat any opinion expressed by anyone on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only is an expression of their personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Brought down by bad mortgage investments, Lehman, which has 25,000 employees will be liquidated.
Starting point is 00:00:27 The federal government loans American International Group, AI, IG $85 billion. This is a different kind of market, and the Fed is asleep. The federal government is stepping it to stabilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two mortgage giants that have been threatened by the housing crisis. The Bank of England has pumped 75 billion pounds more into Britain's ailing economy with a new round of quantitative easing. You print a couple trillion dollars, and all of a sudden, people start to worry.
Starting point is 00:00:50 So out of this worry, we have something called the Bitcoin. Welcome to On the Brink. I'm Matt Walsh. Good I'm Nick Carter. 100 degrees two days in row in Boston. it's like living in Miami up here. It's like 82 degrees down here. And just peak cooler.
Starting point is 00:01:07 Just not built for the weather like that. Do you guys even have AC up there? I mean, I didn't have AC grown up at all. And I don't know how I did that. It's the thing that really, when you go to Europe and they don't have AC, you're like, yeah, this is a poor continent. Like, it's not a rich place at all. Yeah, that's right. I've been in hotels and first.
Starting point is 00:01:30 France before in August with no AC. It's just cruel and unusual. It's like being a crypto founder in France. It shouldn't be. Well, actually, everyone at ECC is getting the Rolex is stolen right now. That's what you just told me before we started recording. That's not good. So, I mean, first of all, don't be a crypto person in France. I think we've all learned that. Second of all, if you have to go to France, you absolutely have to. Don't wear like a salon or shirt when you're out and about. No. I mean, you just become a target.
Starting point is 00:02:06 Why can't they get the crime under control there against the crypto people? Yeah, the problem is crypto people are very soft, you know? Like, they can't defend themselves. Not you and David Hoffman. I'd like to think I could if I had to. Never had to. Well, busy week here at Castle Island, we had a couple of podcasts. Ria sat down with Luca, uh,
Starting point is 00:02:27 Ross Berry, the co-founder of M-Zero, to discuss their universal stablecoin platform. And I sat down with Josh Frank, the CEO and founder of the Thai, talked about the history of that company, talked about the Canton Network, talked about byside participation. So good podcast week over here. Cranking out podcasts. Yeah, we have more in the can. We have more to say about Canton Network in a minute, too. We do.
Starting point is 00:02:51 Should we hop into some deals of the week? Yeah, let's start with the monster deal. This is Kalshi. They prediction market, not really strictly a crypto company, I guess, but they have raised 185 million from paradigm, Sequoia, and multi-coin capital. Wow. I think it tells you that that is the direction they're going, though, wouldn't you say? They may not be a pure play crypto company, but they seem like they're going to move more into the on-chain stuff. It is interesting how it happened because they went the more regulated route than polymarket, right? but now they've converged.
Starting point is 00:03:29 I mean, I guess Polymarket is de facto allowed to operate in this country. Maybe not in this country still. Yeah, Polymarket doesn't have the licenses yet, but I guess they will soon, maybe? I don't know. Yeah, so it really is a duopoly. I mean, but people don't really talk about Kalshi very much. They talk about Polly Market, not to be mean,
Starting point is 00:03:51 but I don't see Kalshi charts being shared around very much. Polymarket really is the it has the Google verb like use case in prediction markets when you talk about betting markets it's always a polymarket reference and yeah yeah the new site it's uh always reference polymarket too I mean it is a great way to get like there isn't question about whether prediction markets are better predictors of events like I would say that question has not been determined yet. But like because you already had prediction markets in a sense with betting markets like British booksmakers would have real world betting. So you could like kind of like sort of already existed. And we didn't know for sure if that you know the market was better than the polls or
Starting point is 00:04:41 whatever. But I will say it gives you more granularity like higher frequency data. Like that's undeniable. You get high frequency data. So when the election was happening, I just had polymark could open all 50 states. Totally. Real time updates. That is an experience that no one has ever had before. Totally. You know the other interesting thing on that dimension is this past weekend when all
Starting point is 00:05:09 the stuff was going on in the Middle East and Bitcoin reacted. I saw the Bitcoin price chart before I realized what was going on in Iran. If Bitcoin was going a lot lower at the time, it's fascinating to see Bitcoin in the weekends just telling you that there's something going on globally. Something bad's happening. Yeah. Yeah. I was glued to the polymarket for the election, the Democratic primary in New York City,
Starting point is 00:05:37 the mayor, which the bad thing happened, basically. Yeah, it doesn't, it seems like we're going to get a socialist New York mayor, unless pomp runs. Yeah, pump. I know you said you're not running, but you got to save us, man. someone's got to hop in the fray there right I mean I don't I don't live in New York and I never have
Starting point is 00:05:59 but what is it with major American cities and having the worst mayors like Chicago LA SF terrible mares terrible when I lived in New York it was Bloomberg and it was pretty good
Starting point is 00:06:14 things were trash was getting picked up under Bloomberg was it Giuliani that like cleaned up the streets or whatever like yeah tough on crime or something. Broken glass theory. Yeah, so people liked him back in the day. Bloomberg, what was he known for?
Starting point is 00:06:31 He cut out smoking in restaurants. That was one of his big things. Oh. You know, to be the mayor, you have to, you know, you have to care about the things that actually matter to people day to day. You're talking about bike lanes and stuff like that, you know? Yeah, I guess like this is the question, because Zoron, his platform is like, I think it, from what I remember, it's free buses.
Starting point is 00:06:53 I guess probably that's within his realm of control. I would assume. I don't know what mayors do. Free child care doesn't seem like something a mayor can influence, to be honest. Rent control. I guess. Maybe he can control that? And he wants the grocery stores to be owned by the government.
Starting point is 00:07:12 Yeah. Nationalizing grocery stores. Because when you think socialism, you think abundant grocery stores. We've tried this experiment before, not in the U.S. And we know how it turns out. So I don't think you want the government to operate the grocery stores. See, you just, this kind of thing does not happen in Miami because half the population fled socialism. So they know.
Starting point is 00:07:37 Right. They have been inoculated against this. But anyway, it looks like he's going to win. I mean, Eric Adams is the only man standing between him and the mayorship. Might be a job for fair shake. You know, I know they don't get involved in that level of political race. but, you know, Eric Adams is very supportive of the crypto industry. The reason I don't like it is because I fear that half of the rich people in New York are going to leave and come to Miami.
Starting point is 00:08:05 And I don't want them here. They're just going to be overwhelmed. You just need to get the word out that there's a lot of mosquitoes down there. I mean, it's going to drive up the house prices. And I just can't have that. I've been waiting for years for the housing prices to come down. Well, maybe we'll talk a little bit more about the U.S. federal housing finance agency and what they're doing about it. But they're going to make it easier for you pretty soon. Don't worry.
Starting point is 00:08:31 Yeah, that's right. Let's get through the rest of the deals. Next up we have digital asset. They are the developers of the Canton Network. They have raised $135 million from DRW, Trade Web, DTCC, Citadel Securities, and Goldman Sachs. Really big round. You're an admirer of the Canton Network. We actually got some angry comments recently when you said.
Starting point is 00:08:52 had nice things about them. Yeah. Yeah, a lot of people. I had a bunch of people reach out to me that told me they didn't like the fact that I was so positive on Canton. And you know what? What's your message to the critics? My message to the critics is that there was no one on planet Earth that was more sour
Starting point is 00:09:08 on this company in the early days and the fact that they were doing what I thought was these private blockchains. But I actually really like what they're doing here with the Canton network. It's a public blockchain. There are tons of use cases in the institutional context. where you would want embedded privacy in the synchronization layer between financial institutions. This is a very, is a very worthwhile endeavor, I would say. So, yeah, it is quite an interesting story to go from private enterprise blockchain boondoggle for 10 years
Starting point is 00:09:40 to public blockchain still somewhat an enterprise flavored. Well, I wouldn't even call it a boondoggle. It's just they're trying to solve problems that are. different from what traditionally a layer one blockchain would aim to solve. I think it's almost in a different category of infrastructure from a lot of things that exist in the crypto space. But you know, you see these names that are on this cap table and a lot of them are actually using it to move collateral on chain.
Starting point is 00:10:07 So it's going to save a lot of money for people, I think, down the road on back office costs. Yeah, I think the names in this round are really indicative of what they're trying to do as well. Yeah, I mean, they have DTC and Goldman TradeWeb on the cap table. this is like they're not on the cap table just because they want to observe they're doing stuff so next up we have gTE i wonder what gt e stands for i don't know i have no idea so it's a decentralized trading platform there is 15 million from paradigm then it's stack up this is a web three app development platform there is 4.2 million from 1kx y combinator good water and others then you have veda a defy yield protocol there is 18 million from coin fund coin based venture
Starting point is 00:10:52 is in GSR. McKenna is an agentic defy protocol that raised 3 million from Bodeventures, cyber fund, and notation. Then we have Zama. They're an open source
Starting point is 00:11:02 cryptography company. There is 57 million from Pantera, blockchain, and others. Then it's concrete, which is a defy yield protocol that raised 9.5 million from polychain,
Starting point is 00:11:14 Yizzy, Labs, and Vaneck Ventures. We've three yield protocols this week. The last one is also called yield. XYZ. They're a yield aggregator. There is five million from multi-coin. And the last one is a fund announcement. So Galaxy has raised their inaugural venture fund. It's a $175 million raise. So congrats to
Starting point is 00:11:34 Mike and the team over at Galaxy. So this, we also didn't mention this deal, but this is rumored that Polymarket is reportedly raising 200 million from founders fund and others. Prediction markets are we're getting pitched all sorts of prediction markets right now. This is turning into a real category. Also sports betting. It's just a lot of people starting sports betting startups. I just don't know how a new prediction market could break in at this point. It's what they said about search engines when search engines were on their 20th search engine.
Starting point is 00:12:13 So we got no major news this week, really. Let's start with market structure. So Lamas says it could be done by September. What's happening there with market structure? Behind the scenes right now, it's interesting. So Trump had come out after the genius bill, the stable coin bill passed the Senate, and he basically posted that the house should just pass the same version, just get it done. Now, you have French Hill who wants to tack on market structure in the house to the genius bill
Starting point is 00:12:41 and then send it back to the Senate to get the whole enchilada done before August. And that's a high risk move, but there's definitely. some folks in the industry that are behind that. Patrick McKenry went on Pomp's podcast a couple weeks ago. He was talking about that as a possibility. I actually don't think that's as crazy as some people think. I think there's some precedent for financial services bills to go back to the Senate with more in them. And historically, there have been bills that have passed like that. But then today, Llamas came out and said, market structure, we're getting a jump on it. We're going to have that done by the end of the year. I think the idea was to have a markup done in September.
Starting point is 00:13:23 So the tea leaves there coming from the Senate are, hey, don't worry, we're on it. We're going to do market structure separately. I think we just need to see what French Hill wants to do in the House. Do you have a view on where to go here? I'm just of the camp that we should take our wins because you have to be so cautious about getting anything done. I'm just, let's just push out with stable coins. take the win, market structure later. Well, Thomas also said that getting the stable coin
Starting point is 00:13:53 bill done was like giving birth to a porcupine. I thought that was pretty funny. Wow, that's a great line. So I guess we're still waiting on the house for stable coin. So it's just formally transmitted to the house, I think, on Monday. So, yeah, we're waiting for them to take it up. Hopefully that's something they can get done before the
Starting point is 00:14:13 August recess. So there has been, my news, item of the week is this FISAV partnership. So they have a partnership with Paxos Circle, MasterCard, and PayPal to launch and distribute their own stablecoin, FIUSD. This will be on Salana, and it will allow FISA customers to integrate stablecoins into their payment flows. FISA, by the way, is one of the biggest, maybe the biggest company that offers core banking infrastructure to banks. So I think this big deal. So this is a big deal. It's also, I have a bunch of questions about this one and where this goes. So on one hand, you look at the software providers of core banking
Starting point is 00:14:51 systems. They need to be able to do stable coin stuff. Like that is something that is mission critical. That is going to make the stable coin market a lot bigger. And the reason why that's important is because if you're one of these companies, let's say you're a bank or let's say you're even a fintech company building on top of banks and you want to integrate stable coins, you don't want to have to build this entirely parallel ecosystem to support stable coins alongside your US dollars and traditional securities. It actually would just make it costlier for you to get to market that way. Whereas if you use a FIS Global, one of these large integrators and backend providers, it's just going to make it more efficient.
Starting point is 00:15:33 So on that dimension, it's great news. What I wonder about is why are they doing their own stable coin? Yeah, I don't think they need that. wouldn't that put them in competition with certain of their customers down the line here? Yeah, you think the banks will likely do it. So just for those you that aren't as familiar, they serve 10,000 financial institutions, 6 million merchants globally, 25,000 transactions per second at peak. They process payments across debit credit, ACH wire, Swift, Chaps, RDC, Visa MasterCard.
Starting point is 00:16:08 I mean, these guys are deeply, deeply ingrained. the financial system. I think this is one of the biggest stable coin partnerships ever. It's going to just be really interesting to see who has the power in some of these distribution arrangements because on one hand, you could see Pfizer just going to like a circle and saying, hey, we'll put USDC on this platform and cut us a check based on, you know, how much people use it. But I do wonder some of these banks that do want to do their own stable coins or even deposit tokens. We've talked about those. They're going to view this as competitive, I think.
Starting point is 00:16:45 So also somewhat related, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, FHFA, have announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will recognize cryptocurrency as an asset in mortgage loan applications. This happened very quickly, unexpected. What do Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cover? What kind of loans? Well, don't they just buy conforming loans? I'm not an expert on this. but if you get a home loan, oftentimes it can be just bought by Fannie or Freddie, I think, right after you ink it.
Starting point is 00:17:18 I don't think the banks wear that risk. Okay. So what's interesting here, I think, is that, you know, you have all these people that might have bought some Bitcoin in the early days and they want to go buy a house. They have some ETH. They want to go buy a house. They don't want to sell that, but they want to be able to have the Bitcoin and ETH and other types of cryptocurrencies count against their house.
Starting point is 00:17:39 count against their net worth for the basis of getting the mortgage. So even if you just gave a big haircut to the price when you factor it into the model, there's a lot of value there. So I'm looking it up and this only applies to, quote, conforming loans. So that's a mortgage that meets the standard set by Fan of Mayor Freddie Mac. By the way, where did those names come from? Are those people's names? Who are Fannie and Freddie?
Starting point is 00:18:03 Who are these people? It's a great question. So conforming loan limit is 766. thousand generally in some places up to 1.15 million. So if you're hoping to use your fart coined by a mansion in the coral gables, it's not happening. But I mean, I think this is actually a correct decision. Like crypto is a financial asset. So it should be included in your your barring profile. I think it's wrong. It hasn't in the past. 100%. And people are doing end arounds to try to make this work. Right. So you'll have people that are early in their career.
Starting point is 00:18:39 but they've gotten into some of these assets at an advantageous time, and they'll post it as collateral on platforms and take out a U.S. dollar loan to make a down payment. So people are working around it. Here, I'll give you the answer on Fannie Mae. So it is the Federal National Mortgage Association, and if you pronounce the het phonetically FNMA, it sounds like Fannie Mae. That's what ChatGPT is telling me. And Freddie Mac was the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, FHL,
Starting point is 00:19:09 MC doesn't really sound like Freddie Mac. That doesn't sound like Freddie Mac. Yeah, there's also Ginny May and Sally May, the government National Mortgage Association, the Student Loan Marketing Association. I don't like it. I'll say that right now. You don't like the names? No, I don't like the names.
Starting point is 00:19:29 Well, this is a huge trade that's going on in TradFi right now that I haven't exactly been monitoring, but they were placed under conservatorship by the U.S. government and now there's talk about them spinning out independently and they never killed the equity value and so I think there's a lot of hedge funds that have built positions here in these names. All right. Next up newswise we have Anthony Pompeiano has raised $750 million in equity convertible notes to form pro cap financial that will be a Bitcoin native financial services firm. They will go public via SPAC with the Columbus Circle Capital Group. They've already acquired $500 million dollars in bitcoin to purchases he would be high on my list of people that i would think would be
Starting point is 00:20:13 equipped to be a face of one of these things yeah no one's asked me to do one yet i'm a little offended by be honest yeah they don't want you to do it yeah i don't yeah i what's up with that i mean i wouldn't do it but no one's asked which i don't like you just want someone to ask you so you can say no is that yeah so then we have met a planet they're the japanese micro strategy, I guess they've raised 515 million. They have a 555 million plan. They want to acquire 1% of Bitcoin's totals apply apparently. These guys are on a roll right now, huh? Metaplanet? Yeah, I would say Metaplanet have done very well. These got, Japan, wow. Yeah. So then we have nanolabs. They've acquired a 500 million sale. They announced a $500 million sale of convertible notes
Starting point is 00:21:04 to fund a BNB. If you thought they were going to buy Nano, you're wrong. Oh, Nano. What is that? That was the Ethereum. Remember Nano? Nano was like, was it a fork of Iota or something? It was a, I think it still exists.
Starting point is 00:21:20 It was a zero fee, like DAG, I think. Is that what that was? Do you remember that? I remember Nano. I just weren't people saying, it's like Ethereum, but Farasia. Wasn't it that one? No, that was. That was Neo, actually.
Starting point is 00:21:34 Neo. That was Neo. Yeah. Yeah. The, like, Chinese Ethereum. Yeah, wow. What if, no, the nano people were always in my replies being like, you guys don't get it. Like, we have zero fees.
Starting point is 00:21:46 Like, okay, I do get it. I get DEMC. I don't like it. So it's not, they're not buying nano. They're buying B&B, okay? So, and apparently there's a second, yeah, $500 million B&B, it's a lot. There's another one that wants to raise $100 million to, for BNB as well. So, wow. I don't know, man. I think we're getting towards the end of this
Starting point is 00:22:10 treasury trade. I don't know how you did the treasury company news ahead of the Fed reputational risk, by the way. Oh, yeah. I was just going down the email. So yeah, this was a great piece of news. The Fed says they're not going to use reputational risk anymore as part of Camels. So the OCC and the FDIC had already nixed it. Now the Fed has finally joined them, which is great. Pneutral risk, by the way, was the real mechanism through which choke point one and two were instituted. So excellent decision by the Fed. Thank you for that. I think there's a real needle mover. I mean, we talked to a lot of banks in the course of our work, and all of them point out this reputational risk item as holding back their efforts in digital asset space.
Starting point is 00:22:56 And we've talked about it on this show a lot because it's kind of a catch-22 because they can just say anything as reputational risky. it's weird that the Fed or any other supervisor agency would care about the reputation of a bank. It's weird. It doesn't really make sense. Why would you care? Okay, you can have a bad reputation. So what, right? The theory behind it was if you have a, you know, if you are not doing anything wrong or illegal, but you're serving a reputational risky set of clients that would like cause a bank run, cause a threat to financial stability. think that's nonsense. You should let the free market sort it out. If a bank wants to onboard a bunch of firearms clients or payday lenders or ATM machines or anything questionable but completely legal, they should be able to do that. So it never even made sense to me the underlying justification for the policy. I wonder if this is something that could
Starting point is 00:23:57 get codified in law. Would Tim Scott's bill address this and just make it impossible for this to come back? Yeah, the Firm Act, I think. So it is rumored that there is an executive order covering debanking that is about to be on Trump's desk, apparently. That would be huge. That would not be a law, but that would be more support for this movement to kind of depoliticized banking, which goes far beyond crypto. I mean, this is, it affects anyone potentially. It's not even a partisan thing. Banking should not be political. Totally. All right. So that's really good news. All right. Other news this week, Cracken. So they announced that they're relocating their company headquarters from California to Wyoming, citing the state as a pioneer in crypto regulation.
Starting point is 00:24:47 They did have the Wyoming bank. I think that's still operational out in Wyoming, but now it's the whole company. Pretty great news for Wyoming. So that's, how do you pronounce it? Is it Chayenne? Chayenne. Cheyenne? Yeah. So it's not pronounced like Cainin Pepper. No, Cheyenne, man. Come on.
Starting point is 00:25:06 We've been to-O-D-Wy-I-D. I know. I haven't been to Chey-N. I've been to Jackson Hole. No, don't we... You've been to Chey-N haven't you? Isn't that pretty close? No?
Starting point is 00:25:17 I guess... I've been... It's actually brought not that close. No, I think it's a big place. But Jackson Hole and Casper, Wyoming, which really didn't inspire me very much. I don't know. Yeah, to watch the eclipse in 2017.
Starting point is 00:25:32 Oh, you did that. I forgot about that. Yeah. And then I got stuck in like a 12-hour traffic jam after that. Wyoming is a pretty state. Beautiful place. Okay, so it's six hours and 38 minutes from Jackson Hole to Cheyenne. So it's a little bit.
Starting point is 00:25:46 It's not exactly right next to it. remotely close. Let's just say they're super far away. So I was wrong about that. But I wonder, I guess, yeah, they'll go to Cheyenne. I don't know much about Cheyenne. Is it a nice place to live? Looks beautiful.
Starting point is 00:26:02 Looks really nice. It's not that far from Colorado, Fort Collins. You fly into Denver. You probably get there pretty easily too. I mean, they've got an airport. This is good news. So actually on the state level, we didn't talk about this, but Texas passed a strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill.
Starting point is 00:26:18 And they bought Bitcoin. Yeah. And actually bought Bitcoin. They bought $10 million worth of Bitcoin. That's something. Yeah, it's really, it's a, what a world. to live in. I mean, good, like, this kind of totally flew under the radar.
Starting point is 00:26:32 I mean, it's very symbolic. It's not obviously a huge amount of Bitcoin, but like now the states are buying Bitcoin. You know, don't sleep on this presidential working group report on the Bitcoin Reserve. That's coming up this summer. I wonder if there'll be a recommendation to buy Bitcoin. Yeah. Where is the audit? Wasn't there an audit of the Bitcoin held?
Starting point is 00:26:55 Did they complete that? What are they meant to do that? They're going to get to that right after they audit the Fed, I think. Yeah, I think that was in the EO, and no one did it. Like, how hard is it to audit the Bitcoin? I bet it's really hard to audit the Bitcoin. You kidding me? Think about all these federal agencies that have seized laptops and devices that probably
Starting point is 00:27:17 have Bitcoin on them. I mean, you just look at the blockchain and you see if you have it or not. It's like it takes three seconds. I don't know. That's why companies like CatLab exist, right? You take the phone, you take the laptop, you scan it. You get seed phrases from criminals written on word docs. There's all sorts of Bitcoin out there that the government has that they don't actually know they have.
Starting point is 00:27:41 What are the odds that we do the audit and we have the last Bitcoin than we thought we had? I think it's about 100%. It depends. How do you want to think about the Bitfinex Bitcoin? Because a bunch of the U.S. government's Bitcoin actually belongs to Bitfinex. Like BigFinex clients, right? Yeah, from when they got to. hacked. Yeah, it does. Or does it? I think there are court cases about this. We actually don't know yet.
Starting point is 00:28:04 But just seems like that, you know, it was stolen from them. You should give it back to them. Yeah, morally, morally, it definitely belongs to the clients of Bitfinex. And they were made whole on the token, I guess, but. That'd be a nice dividend. When was that, 2016? So almost 10 years later, you get wildly appreciated Bitcoin back. Yeah. I mean, Bitfinex and Tether, you have leadership. they could use a break right now. Things aren't going good enough. Also, the exchange front, Coinbase will be launching perpetual style futures. I don't know what that means for their U.S. customers on July 21st, starting with BTC and ETH. Perpetual futures are going to be one of these
Starting point is 00:28:47 innovations that was discovered in crypto and just permeates financial services. How long do you think it'll take to get perps on U.S. equities? I just don't know if I don't know if it's a thing for TradFi. It will be. Mark my words. It's so much better than a futures contract. I think it makes sense if you don't have clearing houses and pooling of risk. That's why it started on exchanges because they were just liquidity pools that were disconnected from each other. That's why we had perps in the first place.
Starting point is 00:29:25 I think if you look at it as a retail driven market, though, there's just a big demand there. I mean, think about how much more popular it would be to trade those type of instruments on Tesla versus trying to have the options or the forwards, the futures. Yeah, I mean, they are, now people do understand perps thanks to crypto. So that might be it. People get it. It's a very large, very liquid market on ETH, Bitcoin, Seoul.
Starting point is 00:29:52 So I don't think there's any reason to believe it wouldn't be a big market on the top 100 stocks. in the United States. I think that'll be a big play. Some of these trading firms are just going to have to step up 24-7 though. Yeah, that's right. There was something I was thinking about today, actually, with the FISA news. I think banking hours are going to be a thing of the past. Like, they had a good racket for a while, for a couple hundred years. They had a really good racket. Yeah, they did trick us into think the money was immobile more of the time than it was mobile. Like, that was a great trick, but it's just not, it's over now. and you're going to be able to move money out of your bank whenever you want, as it should be.
Starting point is 00:30:34 It's like that YouTube video, remember we're watching that YouTube video of Jeremy Lear at the 2015 Bitcoin Expo? And he was just saying, you should be able to move money the same way you move files on the internet. It should be that easy. And that makes total sense. Yeah, like, let me look this up. How many banking hours are there a week? There's 40. How many non-banking hours are there in a week?
Starting point is 00:30:56 There's 128. So the banking hours is only 24% of the time. What is that? Why did anyone agree to that? What a horrible system. It's just, yeah, it's crazy. It's crazy. It's unbelievable.
Starting point is 00:31:11 So what do you think the second order effects are there? Because a couple times a year you're going to have crazy geopolitical things that happen on the weekends. And you're going to see Bitcoin just sell off massively. We kind of had one with the recent Iran bombs being dropped. Now, in a world where equities can trade 24-7, will Bitcoin actually be that asset that spikes or goes down based on weekend news? Well, I think this whole notion of the weekend is the low liquidity period is not going to be a thing anymore because you can settle fiat on the weekend. We'll be able to with stable coins. So markets will just be 24-7, whether it's tokenized equities, banking hours being obsolete.
Starting point is 00:31:57 everything's to be 24-7, as it should be. Like, news happens all the time. It doesn't just happen in 9 to 5 Eastern time. Like, news is always happening. It's just wild to think about what that's going to do, not only to the way some of these financial services firms are staffed, but also to the tech. You know, if you're a traditional exchange,
Starting point is 00:32:18 you can just go down for the weekend for maintenance. Yeah. I mean, so this is the thing, like crypto exchanges have this baptism by fire. Like, they built their whole infrastructure. structure, compliance, everything with the assumption that it would be 24-7. Tradfai is not built like that. Not built like that at all. I mean, a lot of these shops actually do use the nights and weekends to do their system
Starting point is 00:32:40 maintenance and the test. How is that going to work? I think what it means is the crypto exchanges will kind of inherit the earth, right? Because they're structurally set up to deal with this and others are not. I actually do think that in a lot of ways the crypto exchangers are better position. to do these markets, like tokenized stock markets. Yeah. Then the traditional exchange.
Starting point is 00:33:02 I think you're going to see these traditional exchanges have to go buy crypto exchanges. I can't wait for a time when I can send a bank wire on the weekends. I cannot wait. Or just that you don't have to send a bank wire. Well, right. Yeah, exactly. Like if Pfizer is doing stable coins, I don't think you're going to ever have to send a bank wire.
Starting point is 00:33:22 You just have a stable coin account and you click send. Yeah. If I could never do a zero. Zoom call with my bank again. That would be amazing. Although, I don't know. Some of these, sometimes for cybersecurity reasons, I don't mind doing the Zoom call. That is true. As long as you don't click on the EXC file. Be careful out there, by the way. A lot of that going on. North Korea is really active in the crypto space right now.
Starting point is 00:33:45 I am a little surprised when I see on crypto Twitter. I don't want to victim blame, but I see people saying, hey, I got duped. Someone DM me on Telegram. They said, do you want to catch up? then they sent me a weird telegram link or Zoom link and I opened it and I had to download an executable. How is this still happening? Like we all know not to do that. Everybody knows that now. Yeah, don't do that. But I don't know. These attackers are good. You know, they're socially manipulating people. It is, there is like a tradeoff between safety and efficiency and we're entering the less safe, more efficient quadrant now. That's what we're in. It's kind of one of these things though. If you get an email and you're not sure if it's real or if you get a message from someone,
Starting point is 00:34:34 just delete it. Yeah. If it's that urgent, then someone will figure out how to get a hold of you. If you owe someone money, they'll figure it out. Yeah, that is the thing. You just can't trust any inbound message at all, ever. So we do need to reimagine how. like communication works, unfortunately. Yeah, it's really, it's a tough, tough market. It's not just senior citizens that are getting scammed. No, it's everyone. Yeah, it's everyone.
Starting point is 00:35:03 All right. And other news, the investment platform, Republic, they're going to tokenize shares of SpaceX and other private companies. And it looks like they're just going to open it up to retail here. So more and more tokenization plays. Market structure bill is going to be a real catalyst for that category. How does the tokenized representation of the stock, how do you ensure that that trades in line with the value of the stock?
Starting point is 00:35:32 Well, wouldn't you just, I think you'd just have market makers that are making money if it doesn't, right? So you're making a market. How do they short the private stock if you have to converge the price of the two? Oh, I see what you're saying. If the tokenized representation trades well below, you would short the underlying and long the derivative, right? But they can't do that. Yeah, I think that's a really good point. I think this works best on large liquid public stocks.
Starting point is 00:36:04 And there's probably a handful of private stocks. But yeah, to your point, you can't really short this. And so I don't know what you're shorting as a proxy there. Yeah. So I don't know how that's going to work. Yeah, maybe it won't work. I don't know. I mean, the by side, you could see that working. But yeah, how do you, how do you make sure that it trades back to NAV? All right. So I think that is it for the week. Keeping our eye on this bill as it moves forward. And I guess these podcasts are turning into just a lot of Bitcoin and now B&B and B&B.
Starting point is 00:36:37 I can't believe that we're moving on to BNB. I mean, I guess we're just going to do every coin. was hyper liquid last week now it's B&B yeah hyper liquid I got but I'm surprised by BNB the same here all right everyone that's it have a safe and healthy weekend
Starting point is 00:36:54 and we will see you on Monday

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