On The Brink with Castle Island - Weekly Roundup 09/05/25 (Stripe's Tempo, NASDAQ tightens rules on DATs, WLF vs Sun) (EP.663)

Episode Date: September 5, 2025

Matt and Nic are back for another week of news and deals. In this episode:  We review the US Open The Clippers scandal Fantasy football and the efficient market hypothesis Tax treatment of sports be...tting on Poly versus sports betting apps Are prediction markets more efficient than bookies? Galaxy launches a tokenized version of their stock NASDAQ is adding supervision rules for DATs Is it over for the DATs? World Liberty Fi launches and gets into a fight with Justin Sun Gemini files to go public Stripe releases details around their Tempo L1 Some academics have an explanation for why MSTR might trade at a persistent premium  Content mentioned in this episode: Nic on Substack, Situating Stablecoins in the Payments Landscape Valuing Microstrategy

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Matt Walsh and Nick Carter are partners at Castle Island Ventures. All of these expressed by them or the guests on this podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Castle Island Ventures. Guests and host may maintain positions in the assets discussed in this podcast. You should not treat any opinion expressed by anyone on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only is an expression of their personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.
Starting point is 00:00:22 Brought down by bad mortgage investments, Lehman, which has 25,000 employees will be liquidated. The federal government loans American International Group, AI, $85 billion. This is a different kind of market, and the Fed is asleep. The federal government is stepping it to stabilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two mortgage giants that have been threatened by the housing crisis. The Bank of England has pumped 75 billion pounds more into Britain's ailing economy with a new
Starting point is 00:00:46 round of quantitative easing. You print a couple trillion dollars, and all of a sudden, people start to worry. So out of this worry, we have something called the Bitcoin. Welcome to On the Brink. I'm Matt Walsh. And I'm Nick Carter. Feels like a really busy week. Yeah, I think I've been in five cities this week.
Starting point is 00:01:00 We were in New York yesterday. You went to the U.S. Open. Is that your first open? It was. And I think it's my first and last, actually, to be honest with you. You didn't like it? No, it was good. I mean, look, we saw a center play.
Starting point is 00:01:14 He absolutely clobbered this other Italian guy. And the other Italian dude kept on having these little Italian fits whenever he would make an unforced error. He would, like, gesture. It wasn't even clear who he was talking to. He wasn't even talking to his coach. would just like tell himself off whenever he missed a shot. That part was entertaining.
Starting point is 00:01:36 The honey deuce thing, a very good drink. Let me tell you. Yeah, what is? I was going to ask you about that. Is that all it's cracked up to be? It's honeydew melon and what is it? Vodka lemonade or something? There's some vodka.
Starting point is 00:01:47 Yeah, it's like vodka lemonade and then there's a melon. There's actual melon in it. That was great. So it's good for you, really? Yeah, there's fruit in there. That was my favorite part of the whole thing. but you know tennis something happened to the tennis mat it became part of the circuit you know social scene the so the circuits like do you reach a certain level of affluence you're almost
Starting point is 00:02:14 compelled to be a part of this roving calendar that's like aspen in the winter and st. Moritz and then the hamptons in the summer and then f1 in monaco and Miami and now there's Wimbledon and you know it's just like it never ends and you have to be part of it for some reason I don't know why everybody I know is on the circuit right that's brutal I don't like the circuit I've never been on the circuit so I realize today that as a moderately affluent person the key to happiness is being as far away from the circuit as humanly possible yeah you don't want to see people that are in like the front row on the circuit when you're That's the problem.
Starting point is 00:03:00 Because you're never going to be, you're just never going to be happy. It's all relative deprivation. And being part of the circuit is you're exposing yourself to richer people all the time, constantly. You just can't do it. You have to opt out. Well, speaking of people that are wealthy, did you follow this Kauai Leonard story? This is a non-crypto story that is the most fascinating thing. I went deep on this yesterday.
Starting point is 00:03:27 I only just found out about it from you. So the story is, there's this guy, Pablo Torre, I believe his name is. I think he works for ESPN. He's an investigative journalist. We need a guy like this in the trenches in the crypto space, by the way. I feel like I'd be very good friends with this guy. He's going deep on bankruptcy filings, SEC filings. Here's the gist of it.
Starting point is 00:03:49 There's this company called Aspiration that raised a bunch of money from usual big-name people. and Steve Balmer was one of these investors. And the whole business model of aspiration, it sounds like, was to offset carbon. So if you were like a professional sports team and you wanted to offset your carbon footprint, you would give them money and they would go plant trees. Whatever. Anyways, they went bankrupt. The guy who was running it was convicted of fraud.
Starting point is 00:04:17 I believe he's going to jail. But Pablo Torre, a VSPN, found that Kauai Leonard was getting something like $28 million in total from this company for basically a no-show job. So he was sponsored by aspiration. And the theory is that it was salary cap circumvention, is that Balmer put money into aspiration and aspiration paid Kauai Leonard above and beyond what he was making at the Clippers.
Starting point is 00:04:42 And that was the inducement for him to go to the Clippers. Which, if that is true, if that is proven to be true, the Clippers are so screwed. But so how is this different from like any other, no show minimal work job where you're like the spokesman for some you know underwear brand or something like what's the difference is it the linkage between the owner and then this pool of cash is that i guess that's a good um question is like how often do these endorsement deals happen with professional athletes where it's just part of the thing because obviously a ton of
Starting point is 00:05:21 them are completely legit. If you play on the Patriots, you're going to have car dealer sponsorships and things like that. But this one sounds like it was, there was no obligation for him to do anything. I don't think he ever spoke publicly about the company, never showed up. And he was just getting like $7 million a year or something like that to do it. So it appears to be, it appears to be quite brisen. We'll see what the real story is. So it's like a super pack for sports. Yeah. But the, the, the, it's a. Do you think it's just against the spirit of the league's rules or illegal or against the letter of the law? Like, how bad do you think it is?
Starting point is 00:06:01 So I guess this whole company was illegal fraud and the DOJ has been investigating. So I guess the whole thing was fraud. But this Kauai Leonard part is, I don't know if it's illegal, but it's definitely against the bylaws of the NBA. So there was this Joe Smith who used to be on the Timberwolves. I think this happened with him like 15, 20 years ago. And they took away five first round draft picks. Oh, that's really serious. Okay.
Starting point is 00:06:30 We're going to have more to say about sports in a minute here, actually. Those are the big non-crypto stories of the week going on. Football is also back today. Football is back. Yeah. Thank God. It's been so long. I can't wait.
Starting point is 00:06:45 I think we're probably like, 14 win team up here. And you know what? I actually did my fantasy draft for real this year using AI. So I always auto draft because I believe in the efficient market hypothesis. And I think that my competitors in the league are like active traders and I'm the passive trader. I just get the market beta.
Starting point is 00:07:08 Right. So they're trying to be smart and do like deep picks, you know? And I just do the best available, right? it's the auto draft. So according to the efficient market hypothesis, you should always auto draft, right? Right. This time, I've departed from that because of AI. So I let AI pick my whole team. So how do you do that? You just link that up to the Open AI API API? I wasn't sophisticated. I was just sending screenshots of the draft board and, you know, et cetera. So this is going to be a real test. I actually feel really good about the team. So we're going to see if GPD5 is better.
Starting point is 00:07:45 than a human in the realm of fantasy football, which I think the answer is yes. My problem with the fantasy football auto draft, which I have had to do just because I think the past couple of years, we had work events, so I miss the draft. But, you know, I'm in a two-quarterback league. Not all leagues are two-quarterback leagues. You do that? So there's no way to configure it to tell it to like privilege quarterbacks. Yeah, you have to privilege quarterback.
Starting point is 00:08:11 So you almost have to, if you're doing auto-draft, you have to get in there and just. rank 14 quarterbacks first almost. And so I hope everyone liked to hear about our fantasy football teams. In other news, Wyatt sat down with Daniel Lev, the founder and CEO of Coinflow to talk about stable coin usage and payment networks. That was a good episode. And you released a blog post talking about where stable coins are situated in today's payments landscape.
Starting point is 00:08:36 Yeah, this was something I had sitting on the shelf for a year. And I had forgotten about it. And at some point, I was like, well, I might as well just release it. I'm not doing anything with it. And it was my effort to categorize and taxonomize every payment system, major payment system that exists. It's pretty, my takeaways were it's just really hard to make small payments. That's right.
Starting point is 00:09:04 Yeah. I mean, if it's a major payment system, there's very few ones that have small scale payments. Yeah, and I guess stable coins are really good at that, it turns out. Yeah. So if you're interested in stable coin payments taxonomy, I just love a taxonomy, just compulsively make taxonomies. I was kind of trying to explain, you know, what stable coins are most like. And because people compare them to, you know, PayPal and stuff all the time. They're just not like them, really.
Starting point is 00:09:43 So this is my effort to do that. But after all this work, I realize they're not like anything else. They're actually a very unique creature. The platypus. Yeah, they're the platypus of payments. Did you steal that from Spencer Bogart? You talked about Bitcoin being a platypus back in the day. Maybe I did without realizing.
Starting point is 00:10:05 But yeah, I mean, Sabokins are just kind of like cash. And cash is unlike all these other electronic payment systems. because the government's just, if cash was amended today, it wouldn't be allowed. So that's why stable coins were so contentious. And I'm still surprised that stable coins were allowed to exist. I remember we did a podcast episode in the early days talking about whether or not there would be secondary market trading even allowed on stable coins. That's how it was what, 2017, 2018.
Starting point is 00:10:39 We were worried that circles model the regulators would come down on it. Yeah, I mean, for years and years, I've thought, well, they're just not going to let the way stable coins work is like, you know, the issuer doesn't know what's going on on the blockchain. So I just thought that would be banned at some point. Glad it wasn't because a lot of people, a lot of people are getting a lot of utility out of them, especially outside the United States. Yeah, some huge stablecoin news this week as well, which we're going to cover in a minute. All right, so let's hop in the deals of the week. First one up is Utila. It's a wallet infrastructure company.
Starting point is 00:11:14 There is $22 million from red dot capital partners, Nike and DCG. Then you have Ethereum Focus Development Company. They raise $40 million from Paradigm, Electro Capital, and Vitalik himself. Credit Co-op is a defy credit protocol that raised $4.5 million from Maven 11, lightspeed faction and Coinbase. Then you have Reflect a stable coin yield protocol that raised $4 million from A16C, crypto, Salon of Ventures, and Big Brain Holdings. Kite AI is a decentralized AI protocol that raised 18 million from PayPal, GC, and 8VC.
Starting point is 00:11:50 ARIA is an IP tokenization platform. There is 15 million from polychain capital, neoclassic capital, and story protocol. Then it's Pointsville. This is a blockchain-based loyalty program company. There is 10 million from Valor Capital Group. Congrats to Gaborn, the team over there. Then you have Tangany, Cryptoacet, Custodian. There is 10 million from Bader Bank, Elevator Ventures,
Starting point is 00:12:12 and Heliod Crypto Partners. Plural Energy is a clean energy tokenization platform. They raise $7 million from Paradigm, Volt, and Maven 11. Credora, which is an on-chain credit rating platform, they were required by Redstone, an Oracle provider. Then here's the last one of the week, breakout a prop trading platform. They were acquired by Cracken.
Starting point is 00:12:34 M&A, heating up. So where to start this week? Should we start with Polymarket? Yeah, Polymarket. So what happened here? So they have received a no action letter from the CFTC. It gives the prediction market, I believe the green light to launch in the U.S. So we're about to get some just in time for NFL season, Polymarket, on the scene officially.
Starting point is 00:12:56 Yeah, this is a really interesting one, specifically sports wagering on prediction markets. Did you read Matt Levine's commentary about this recently? I did. So is the gist of it that the tax treatment is better? and so prediction markets are likely to take share from like Fanduel and Draft Kings. Yeah, so I think this was the one big, beautiful bill that did this. But I believe the status quo with sports wagering taxes is now that you can deduct 90% of your losses. You have to pay taxes on 100% of your gains for conventional sports wagering.
Starting point is 00:13:38 Meanwhile, prediction markets are taxed. in a different way. I don't exactly know how. Maybe it's just ordinary capital gains. But so apparently the tax regime favors sports wagering in a prediction market context as opposed to regular sports betting. I think this whole market and prediction markets will accelerate in terms of the marketing spend at this point.
Starting point is 00:14:08 You can go with the early days of Draft King and Fandule. how much money they're throwing at promotion, you probably see the same thing here. Betting lines in sports, they're market driven, right? Like if there's a huge amount of interest on one outcome that moves the line, right? It does.
Starting point is 00:14:25 I mean, there's an initial setting of the line, but then, yeah, you're right. So is it the case that prediction markets are more efficient? Or is it kind of actually the same thing, albeit through different structures in terms of best? lighting lines.
Starting point is 00:14:42 My guess is it would get to about the same thing, but it would start, the prediction markets would start from a retail participant setting it, whereas traditional way, I think it's just the sharps in Vegas that are kind of setting it initially and then it'll move. It would be interesting to see a study of the spread in sports betting conventional versus on prediction markets and whether you can get a top. or spread with more liquidity on prediction markets. I don't know if I've seen that yet. I'm not a big sports gambler,
Starting point is 00:15:19 but I find the whole lines thing to be, it's like not intuitive to a first-time user. Not at all. Like I wonder if prediction markets will just become more popular because if you don't gamble a lot, they're just a lot easier to understand. Yeah, I still don't understand Vegas odds. But one thing prediction markets are going to have to do
Starting point is 00:15:40 is parley's because I think that's the most popular form of sports betting is the parley yeah so I guess I mean does that exist in prediction markets yet I'm sure someone's working on it but I haven't seen it parley isn't that just like you never win in a parley like does they ever hit I sometimes hit my parley's I do them in the UFC but apparently the bookies love parley's because they offer the worst odds to the retail punters. Yeah, I mean, one of the reasons I don't do this is because I get on there and I'm like, yeah, Mack Jones is going to throw up for 500 yards today and have three touchdowns, parley that.
Starting point is 00:16:23 Yeah, why not? That never happened. So prediction markets with parley's. Who's building this? It wasn't the only thing that happened at the CFTC this week. So the CFTC and the SEC, they released a joint statement. They clarified that the current law does not prohibit. shirt exchanges from facilitating and trading spot crypto assets.
Starting point is 00:16:45 So I think people thought that this is how the market kind of worked already, but this is just making it official because you did see Cebo have a spot market. They also had a derivatives market, but this is just giving clear rules of the road. Maybe what happens here is that you see more of the conventional exchanges listing crypto assets as a result of this joint statement. Yeah, I was a little surprised by this because I thought this was the status quo already. But the fact that it was issued tells you that maybe it wasn't the status quo that was verbally delivered to market participants. Elsewhere, Galaxy launched a tokenized version of their stock natively in participation with SuperState.
Starting point is 00:17:27 So this isn't through some strange Lichtenstein SPV. This is them doing it directly. They are a public company. Pretty exciting. So apparently they're not the very first to do this. apparently Exodus did it before. Yeah, Exodus did it on Securitas. I think this is the first major NASDAQ listed stock to do it.
Starting point is 00:17:48 It is the first major NASDAQ stock to do it. I think this is the way the market should work. Primary issuance on chain is kind of, it's just so much better than these SPVs. Yeah, you know what you're getting. So, you know, where do you see this going over time? because it would be great to be able to just use these tokens permissionlessly in defy. I wonder if that's going to be the functionality.
Starting point is 00:18:13 I haven't tried doing this yet. Do you need to be a shareholder of Galaxy first and then you wrap those units on chain? Is that how it works? Or you just go to an AMM and buy Galaxy? Presumably there has to be some KYC information exchange at some point, right? It's a very good question. We'll have to tinker around with that. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:18:33 I mean, certainly, you can't move it off of your conventional brokerage into this thing yet as far as I know. Or maybe you can. I don't know. It's been a couple hours. We're just reacting to this live. Also in NASDAQ news, the information reported that NASDAQ is looking to increase its supervision over companies pivoting to DAT strategies, including requiring shareholder votes in certain cases. A lot of the major DATs sold off on this news. What do you make of this?
Starting point is 00:19:05 Well, NASDAQ has been on top of their game here. What was it last week? I think they came out with some new rules around in-kind contributions into these vehicles where they want to cut down the percentage of locked tokens that are moving in-kind into the vehicle for illiquidity purposes. And that's the shenanigans that are happening in this market. We have like locked soul moving into these things. The locked soul is illiquid.
Starting point is 00:19:32 The equity is liquid. I had this mismatch there. So I think it's good. I think that these Dats are selling off. This trade is over. This trade is definitely over. Like the music is totally stopped on Dats. I think people just haven't realized it yet.
Starting point is 00:19:48 And the more I dig into the underbelly of these things, the more shocked I am that people are still trying to launch these things. And there's tons more. We've been pitched like 20 of these things in the past couple weeks. One of the things that's really perplexing to me is these big pipe deals that are happening. And there's an underbelly to that market as well, where if you look at the 8K filings for who's participating in some of these pipes and then the subsequent disclosures, you see some very
Starting point is 00:20:14 large conventional hedge funds. And people in crypto are thinking this is great. Like, hey, we've got real byside capital coming in and pumping our token here. We're going to run the micro strategy playbook. But that's not what's happening. I mean, what's happening is that these large hedge funds see a trade. And so they're buying into a pipe at a discount at MNAV, and then they're shorting it. They're shorting the stock.
Starting point is 00:20:41 And so it's just like that's what's happening here. It's not that there's billions of dollars of interest in having exposure to some token just because it's listed on the equity market. And you do see a lot of FOMO from venture funds and retail into these debts. But no one's looking to the left and looking to the right. Like who else is in this trade with me? that's really strange. This massive hedge fund is in this. Are they just naturally long, this underlying cryptocurrency?
Starting point is 00:21:07 It's like, no, they've never heard of it. They're just buying this and they're shorting something else. Yeah, I mean, we literally saw this with GBDC. You know, the entrust in GBDC. Part of it was retail and trust wanted to be long Bitcoin before with the ETF. But a lot of it was hedge funds and family offices doing the premium trade. That was literally all they were after was the premium, nothing else. So there was, it's mercenary liquidity.
Starting point is 00:21:32 It's mercenary liquidity. It's making these things look like they're raising tons of money. But it's all going to fall apart. Now, it's not going to fall apart the way the three arrows fall apart, right? Like, you're just going to erode equity value. These things are going to trade at discounts. I don't think anyone is giving, you know, huge margin loans against these things, to my knowledge. But so I don't think it's a systemic issue, but it's, I just think it's way overcooked.
Starting point is 00:21:58 Yeah. I mean, the numbers are not looking good. According to the Blockworks dashboard, the sole dots collectively are trading at 62 cents on the dollar, so it a deep discount to NAV. The ETH stats are trading at 83 cents on the dollar. Micro Strategy is only barely positive at 1.3X. It's come down dramatically.
Starting point is 00:22:20 So the market is telling us that things the trade's done. Could it reverse, maybe, but the trend is towards convergence or towards a discount, actually. I think I'm in the RIP Dats camp. It was a fun cycle for the Dats. It didn't last very long. It's over. So here's a big story this week.
Starting point is 00:22:45 World Liberty Financial, the Trump-backed crypto project. They launched their token this week, WLFI. It's currently trading at a $17 billion valuation. There was an immediate scandal here, immediate scandal, which was they blacklisted son's address. I saw that. They locked 500 million. I don't know if there's a dollars or token unit number, but 540 million and unlocked tokens,
Starting point is 00:23:16 2.4 billion in locked tokens. They say they believe in exchange has been using user tokens to sell and push down the price. the rumor is that this is a rumor is that Justin put users of some exchange that he controls into the token locked them with 20% APR
Starting point is 00:23:38 sold the users lock tokens and then as his unlock he's honoring their tokens that he has sold with his own progressively unlocking token. as a way to get around his own lock.
Starting point is 00:23:57 Oh my gosh. I mean, all we need is like seven votes here for market structure. Is this helping? I don't think any of this WLF stuff is helping, least of all the Justin Sun shenanigans. It's, you know, we just got to get this market structure built past. Can we do it with minimal distractions? I guess the answer is probably no.
Starting point is 00:24:20 I had some journalists asked me this week what World Liberty Phi is and how they would describe it to their seven-year-old grandfather. And I realize actually don't know what World Liberty Fy does. Do you know? Isn't it just? I mean, not really, but I thought it was just a fork of AVE.
Starting point is 00:24:36 Isn't it just a lending protocol? You put in ETH and then you get you can get a stable coin loan against your ETH basically. Yeah, so I went to the website. And so they have the stable coin. There's USD-1. That's a product. The AVE fork,
Starting point is 00:24:52 instance, it's not even live yet. So how is this thing worth billions of dollars? There's no actual product as of right now. Oh, well, I think you're just asking too many questions. Yeah, maybe it's about the potential. Yeah, you got to discount those future cash flows. This is really what you have to do. In other news, Gemini, which is the Winklevoss Brothers Exchange,
Starting point is 00:25:19 they filed their S-1. looks like they will be going public. Range says it's like 1.9 to 2.4 billion, I think, something like that. Coming up here, I guess, in a couple weeks. Yeah, next week. A bunch of crypto IPOs coming figure as well. One interesting piece of news this week was Matt Huayang, Paradime,
Starting point is 00:25:42 announced details around Tempo, which is Stripe and Paradigms co-incubated payments-focused blockchain. So a lot of the details are, they're doing stuff that I thought would happen with all ones, which is not having a native token, abstracting gas away, being stable coin and payments first. So not built around any specific stable coin, actually. Adding privacy optionally. I thought it was actually a pretty interesting announcement. A lot of people are unhappy with it, specifically a the,
Starting point is 00:26:20 Ethereum people. They're not happy with it. So what's your take? I mean, is this good for Ethereum, good for Seoul, bad for soul? Like, how do you think about it? I think this is the way things are going to go as blockchains, which is moving away from native tokens. No dependence necessarily on the blockchains of your corporate sponsors creating their own new blockchains. There's an impressive list of partners. A lot of people said it reminded them of Libra, which is true, it is reminiscent of Libra, but it's also a different time. That was in 2019, this is today. So maybe if you tried to launch Libra today, it would have worked. So, yeah, I think it'll do all. I think Stripe has the ecosystem necessary to make this thing work.
Starting point is 00:27:08 Yeah, yeah, I tend to think they have the distribution to make this work as well. So it'd be interesting to see what happens here. I mean, they're definitely trying to get some big name partners on board, it sounds like. Yeah, without a, out open AI, anthropic involved, apparently. Did you see this news coming out of, I guess, London? According to the Financial Times, the World Gold Council
Starting point is 00:27:31 is seeking to launch a digital form of gold. Basically would, I guess that's a, what, $900 billion physical market for precious metals. It would create a new way to trade, settle, and collateralize gold. Well, do you remember there was this gold crisis,
Starting point is 00:27:49 was it last year where the London and New York or Chicago gold rates got out of whack and they're flying gold back and forth on planes. Yeah, what was the reason there again? I don't remember. But I think one of the problems was that one kind of bar isn't standard or fungible with the other kind of bar. Right. So they had to melt them down. And also they'd physically transport them. So have you looked at the price of gold lately? The thing is performing like a tech stock. Yeah, trading like the US is going to default. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:28:29 And you look at the price of gold, then you look at the, look at the UK's debt market. Things are not good in the UK in any respect at all. I mean, the UK fixed income market is trading like it's a developing country. Yeah. And you know what's funny is it's trading higher than when Liz Truss was forced out of office because of the guilt tantrum around her proposed budget in 2022. But no one is trying to force labor out of power right now. So what's up with that?
Starting point is 00:29:07 It seems like a double standard. I don't know. It's like, does anyone, is anyone popping open in Bloomberg and taking a look at that? Because I just don't think that's good news. No, it looks catastrophic. The fiscal picture in the UK is bleak. So I read an interesting paper this week called Valuing Microstrategy. So there was an attempt made by these academics to value micro strategy,
Starting point is 00:29:30 specifically to understand why the equity might trade it a persistent premium to the valley of the underlying, which is admittedly a bit of a mystery. It's what are the conclusions in the paper? they found that the shareholders are able to extract consistently genuine accretive value from the fixed income market. So they're basically saying they priced a lot of the fixed income securities, the micro strategy is selling. And they found consistently that these things are trading at huge premium over what they're actually worth based on, you know, because it's kind of easy to. to price of bond, right? Or like even bonds with embedded call options.
Starting point is 00:30:20 Like that can all be priced, right? They're finding in some cases, things are being issued at 20% premium to what they're actually worth. So they basically say there's irrationality in the bond market, which that value is being harvested by the shareholders and expresses a premium to NAV.
Starting point is 00:30:40 And the thing I just don't understand is, aren't these sophisticated entities, the hedge funds that are buying? the bonds. Yeah, aren't you just default skeptical of academics telling the world how financial markets work as opposed to people that are operating in financial markets telling them how it works? Doesn't it remind you of that shop? What's the name of that white paper, Shams and whatever? Griffin and Shams. Just talking about how like Tether worked back in the day when it was like, no, that's actually not how it works at all. Have you ever talked to a market maker?
Starting point is 00:31:11 I believe the model here. What I don't understand is why. I don't think I get the why. Like, why are the buyers of converts being irrational about it? I don't think they're being irrational at all. I mean, there's so many ways to make money on micro strategy if you're able to arb different securities, right? So you're buying a convert. You might be shorting the equity.
Starting point is 00:31:34 You might be shorting some other instrument. Yeah, but they're just saying buy the numbers. If you price the various parameters and you just plug it into whatever. equation they use to price it converts, they're trading too richly for what they're worth. Interesting. So there's some over billions in the fixed income market. According to them, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:32:00 I guess the other angle, maybe, is just some of these buyers that don't have the ability to be long Bitcoin. Is this a way to be long Bitcoin? So maybe that's a source of quote unquote irrationality is that there's a glamour premium for these converts because they're Bitcoin flavored. Expressing a view on Bitcoin. All right. I guess I'm going to have to read this thing.
Starting point is 00:32:24 These academic papers, though, I don't know. I thought it was a good attempt. How about this? Did Griffin and Shams ever apologize for their paper? No, I think they stand by it. Meanwhile, you know, Tether is worth how many hundreds of billions of dollars. Yeah. Yeah, but I've never seen a retraction.
Starting point is 00:32:44 And that was published in the Journal of Finance, which is the most prestigious finance journal out there. It's really comical. I think that is it for the week. You're excited about football tonight? Yeah, Eagles, Cowboys. Almost certainly the Eagles are going to win. Got a good feeling about the commanders, though, this season.
Starting point is 00:33:02 Who do you guys have in the first game? I haven't even checked. I know we have a very hard strength of schedule. You get punished for doing well. You got the Giants. Yeah. Well, yeah, that would be easy. Patriots have Vegas, one o'clock game.
Starting point is 00:33:19 So check that one up to a win, I'd say. In the tennis, because now we pay attention to the tennis, it does look like it's going to be center outgras again in the final. And having now seen Sinner perform in person, I think his talent is just otherworldly. She's like unbelievable. When's that? When's that on Sunday?
Starting point is 00:33:39 I think this could be this weekend. Yeah. I think I have to watch some paint ride. my deck. I'm not sure if I can make that. I find it interesting, but there is an Al-Kraz-Jokovic semi-final on Friday. All right. Thank God for football. All right, everyone. That is it for the week.
Starting point is 00:33:59 Everybody have a safe and healthy weekend, and we will see you on Monday.

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