On with Kara Swisher - David Chalian Makes the Call

Episode Date: March 4, 2024

Tomorrow is Super Tuesday - the nation's biggest primary vote - and hundreds of delegates are up for grabs. But what impact do primaries have when the nation seems resigned to a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump? David Chalian, CNN Political Director (i.e. the man who makes the call on election night), shares his thoughts on the stakes for 2024, why Nikki Haley is still in the race, and which state he believes matters most this November. Questions? Comments? Email us at [e-mail] or find us on social media. We’re on Instagram/Threads as @karaswisher and @nayeemaraza Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It's an AI-powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Hi, everyone. From New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. This is On with Kara Swisher, and I'm Kara Swisher. Tomorrow is Super Tuesday, which means that Republican voters in almost 20 states will decide whether they want a rematch between Trump and Biden in November, or if there is a political miracle and Nikki Haley, who failed to carry her own state of South Carolina against Trump in February, can prevail.

Probably not. To discuss this contest and the context, I have one of the smartest political observers I know, CNN political director David Chalian, who steers the cable news giant's coverage, which means he determines how and when calls are made on election night, among other things. David is also on air, where he provides regular daily political analysis across CNN programming. Before he arrived at CNN, David was a VP at Politico, Washington bureau chief for Yahoo News, a political editor and on-air political analyst for PBS NewsHour, and the political director of ABC News. We taped this conversation on Wednesday, February 28th. I wanted to ask David about what Super Tuesday means this year, the challenges

that President Biden is facing, including in Michigan, and the changes social media has wrought on political coverage. Plus, our expert question this week is from none other than the big boss at CNN, Chairman and CEO Mark Thompson, who I've known for a long time. We'll hear from David on that and more after the break. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see? For the longest time, we have these images of somebody sitting crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night.

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Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. David, thanks for joining me. I'm thrilled you're here. So you're the political director of CNN. We're taping this at CNN. Most networks have these. For people who don't know, explain what that means. The only one we really know is the Fox guy who got fired, right?

Right. I mean, political director, and I have worked in network political units for the bulk of my career. My job is to oversee all of our political coverage across all the platforms. And what that means is setting the news agenda in the politics space, right, and figuring out what stories we should be on. Yeah, exactly. But also overseeing the correspondents and producers and reporters. And you're also on air. You come on and analyze things. Right. So like half my job is sort of the on-air analysis piece and the other half I oversee the coverage.

And one thing that's interesting about your career, you worked at Yahoo too. Like you've worked at a lot of different, you worked at NewsHour, you worked at all kinds of places, ABC News, traditional, Yahoo, not traditional differences. Yeah, well, I sort of grew up professionally at ABC News, no doubt about that. And then the time I was at Yahoo, they were joining forces with ABC News and trying to get a little bit more into the television space and how to do digital video and all of that. But it was a totally different experience. That was not a newsroom. Even though I was the Washington bureau chief, it was a tech company that we were working for.

I mean, you know that much better than I do. And so that was a totally different environment than what I did at ABC or the PBS NewsHour. How so? Just because it wasn't structured the way a newsroom was structured. We tried to bring in the sensibility of a newsroom inside a tech company. But, you know, you had product people. of a newsroom inside a tech company. But, you know, you had product people.

You had, and by the way, I think now these are becoming less and less clear lines as we move forward in this industry. But at the time, it really was trying to bring the sensibility of a newsroom into a tech company that hadn't done this. They had tried. I don't recall this, but they did have a little news area down in the basement in their headquarters in Sunnyvale.

Yeah. And the biggest concern was we have to have the correspondence of all these young, young people dressing banana republic. I was like, that's not really the point. Nobody asked me to dress in banana republic when I appeared on camera for Yachting. Right. In any case. I never made it to Sunnyvale. At that time, the news folks were headquartered in Santa Monica.

That's right. But let's talk about the here and now in just the political area. Talk about what you're following to inform your sense of how voters are moving. Do you pay attention to polls, approval ratings, consumer sentiment, gas prices? I mean, all of the above is the real answer, but I do think you asked the very correct question, which is paying attention to voters. And that has been the sort of central focus for how we're positioning our coverage this year at CNN for this cycle. Because I have found over the time in doing this, the moment you start losing sense of what voters are thinking and

talking about, you're in the wrong place. You're focused on a shiny thing over here that's like ginning up a lot of interest and not actually penetrating voters. And one of the things I have not yet in my career succeeded at doing that I have long argued to figure out a way to do is to actually get a look into how voters get their information. Like I wish I could have volunteer voters send me their Facebook feeds, like how they're seeing political information and what they are getting, because that's actually how voters are making their decisions. And so what we do is talk to as many voters as possible.

Why don't you create a panel of them and say, what are you doing? You do it with me, I'll send you to it with me. John King is working a little bit in this space for us, this cycle. He's done this whole project called All Over the Map. And he is focused on creating a group of Americans as he goes and visits and keeping them sort of in the fold to constantly inform us.

It's like an unscientific, informal, large focus group. Sure, because one of the things that, of course, not just CNN, but a lot, I'm in a diner in New Hampshire, and this is going to tell me. It tells you nothing. Exactly. And, you know, New York Times pitch bot makes jokes about that, which are very funny. Of course. So what they're actually consuming

and what they're looking at, and then the reaction to me would, especially online, given that everything's moved online in terms of where they get their news. It's like Facebook is the place. Right, so if you saw their Facebook feeds, you'd have a lot more information about how they are receiving political information. And then what they think of it is harder to get out, right?

Or what's influencing them. Yeah, but tease that out through talking to them or developing a relationship with a group of voters who will constantly sort of report back to you. But listen, you said polling. Polling is part of this. Polling is talking to voters as well, obviously. Sort of, yeah.

And people are, you know, it's fallen in district. Yeah, I mean, but it's still a valuable tool. I think you sort of can dismiss polls at your peril as well. They are instructive. They are not predictive. And I know that's how everybody thinks of them. And so everyone's like, oh, the polls are wrong because they didn't. Let's talk about the policies, though, because I just, Mike Madrid posited that voters care a lot about immigration in particular, maybe more so than

reproductive rights or Israel or Ukraine, or is it extremism? Because there were other polls like that. Like, no, what they care about is this, what they care about is this, what they don't care about is this. These things shift, obviously, and it's a long way to November, right? And with so many unknowns, like there's so much, you know, will the trials matter? Who do they matter to? How do you handle that uncertainty when all these data points are coming in and it's not clear which one matters to people? Because it could be different voters matter to different people. I mean, I think there's a group of issues that we know matter more than all the issues, right? I mean, I think there is sort of a collection around the economy and

inflation and what you're discussing about prices and what have you. Immigration has clearly... Always, which always is the case. No doubt. Immigration has clearly popped. It's popped, you know, immigration always was animating on the right. It's broken through. Part of this is the whole Greg Abbott process of getting these migrants out to blue cities and blue states. And all of a sudden, new Americans that were not experiencing the migrant crisis and the border crisis are now experiencing it. And it has broken through. It is not just a Republican echo chamber issue. It is an American issue. Gallup just came out with numbers this week showing it the top rated

issue. I think it's rating higher in importance for voters than we've seen in quite some time. And so, and just look, I mean, both Trump and Biden are going to be on the border this week. Right. I had someone who lives somewhere where there are no immigrants. They're like, immigration is a problem. I'm like, when did you experience them? I didn't. I was like, so it's not a problem for you. Like, it was really interesting.

And I wasn't being, I was just curious. It was fascinating to hear it. And I think it's because of the drumbeat of it was really, the coverage, the drumbeat, the candidates talking about it, I mean, I was just talking with Governor Kathy Hochul of New York. I mean, this is a whole different level now New Yorkers are experiencing what this is. And so I just think that's why the issue has risen. And by the way, the Biden administration, clearly aware of this, it is his worst rated issue consistently. Consistently. Then again, reproductive rights is always undervalued. Everyone's like, what happened in Kansas? It's like, talk to any woman. I'm sorry. It's just like the same thing. Now with this Alabama decision, do you see, or is it extremism,

or is it Ukraine? It's usually not foreign policy. It's usually not foreign policy, which is why, given what we saw in Michigan. We're going to ask you about that. I don't know how long lasting, but we are in a moment between Ukraine, which speaks to a larger issue than just foreign policy. It speaks to the democracy piece. It speaks to America's role in the world. What are we? Exactly. Who are we?

And, of course, in the Middle East. We'll see where those are in the fall. that I have covered in my time where international issues or national security issues were trumping everything else was Bush's reelect in 2004, which was the first election after 9-11. That's one where it sort of flipped the script on its head. And it was not the economy stupid, right? It really was something else going on. For the most part, these domestic issues and kitchen table issues or personal liberty issues are ones that animate voters. Right. A lot of people seem resigned to the idea that it will be a Biden-Trump match or this is what it is. What do you learn from the primaries then? And is Super Tuesday a

dress rehearsal for November? Do you think of it that way when you're figuring out what coverage to do? Yes, definitely, just to the answer to your last question. And because— Why is that? From a production standpoint, it's the day that has the most states voting. So the idea—you can't recreate that again before November, right? So November, you have everyone in the country voting in all 50 states and you're dealing with how you cover that across time zones. How many states total?

How many states? Super Tuesday. 15 states will vote on Super Tuesday. Some 865 delegates on the Republican side are at stake. It's the biggest single day prize of the whole nomination season. chance to, as you said, sort of dress rehearse an election night that has multiple states and time zones coming in in a really robust fashion. We don't get that with the one-off single states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Right. But does it matter? I mean, people think this is like, is it sort of performative at this point or not at all? Oh, no, I don't think it's performative.

We know the results, right? We know that Donald Trump's going to be the nominee. We know Joe Biden's going to be the nominee. To your point, there is stuff to learn. Tell me, what do you learn from the primaries? So right now, I think what we're learning in these primaries, I'll start with the Republican side. We are learning Donald Trump's strength and dominance in the Republican Party in a substantial way. And also learning some general election vulnerabilities that are getting exposed here. Because I'll use the Michigan primary as an example.

Last night, Cara, neither candidate, Trump or Haley, really competed. They didn't visit. They didn't spend much money. It was not a fully engaged race the way Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina were. So I think it was our most natural baseline of just how the party is sorting itself. And she was getting close to 30% of the vote in a place where she was. Not nothing, as she said. Yeah, she says it's not a small. It isn't nothing. It's not nothing. And so the question then becomes, so that is a clear set of Republican voters or Republican primary voters who are Trump resistant. And then the question

becomes, how much do they return to their natural R-Republican DNA in November and just put on the jersey and vote for Trump? And what slice of them remain Trump-resistant? That math equation, to me, that's going to be the ballgame of figuring out how this election goes. Are there any key areas of the Super Tuesday State

you'll be watching in particular? Yes. So North Carolina is one state that I think a lot of eyes are going to be on. It is a battleground state in the sense that both Trump and Biden are going to spend an enormous amount of money in North Carolina. It obviously has not gone to Democrats since Barack Obama won it in 2008, and then he lost it to Mitt Romney in 2012. But much like we saw with Georgia and Arizona the last cycle, these formerly red states that had gotten purple and then flipped blue, North Carolina demographically is the kind of state that Democrats look at as having that potential. And obviously, Obama fulfilled that potential in his first election, but where just the way in which the state is composed. You can't own it. The Republicans can't own it anymore.

Yes, and they can't take it for granted. And talk about the whole argument that Biden and his campaign are going to make against Trump. Extremism, the MAGAfication of politics. There may be a Republican gubernatorial nominee in North Carolina in Mark Robinson that helps the Democrats make that argument. He would be very much of that ilk of Republicans. And it hasn't worked in other states. And so Democrats will potentially see opportunity there. helps the Democrats make that argument. He would be very much of that ilk of Republicans. And it hasn't worked in other states. And so Democrats will potentially see opportunity there.

But I just want to stress, it's like the seventh state on the list, right? Biden is from such a weak position at this moment looking for his reelection plan that the more traditional battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, they have to be top priority for him. But North Carolina, it's a big bucket of electoral votes. And so looking to see in the primary results, what Biden vulnerabilities are exposed there, what Trump vulnerabilities are exposed, and does that state come online in a more aggressive way in the

general election than it did last night? We're going to get to both of them individually, including their vulnerabilities. But let's talk about Nikki Haley. We've got a question from someone you will surely recognize. My name is Mark Thompson. I'm the chairman and CEO of CNN. Here's my big question for David Chalian. Why is Nikki Haley still in the race? It doesn't look remotely as if she can win. And yet with every passing day, every speech, she risks doing ever deeper damage to her reputation with the MAGA wing of the party. So what do you think's going on? What do you think's going on? Now I feel like you guys are getting insight into our 9 a.m. editorial call where Mark asks me questions like this in front of the organization. They do. That's seen as a stand-up every day. Talk about this. Answer

Mark's question. So the first question is, why is Nikki Haley still in the race? Because she has money in her coffers. That is the thing that ends presidential campaigns. When the bank account runs dry, the campaign closes up. She's got a lot of money. And she's been raising money. Now, we'll learn. We're coming to the end of February here as we record this. By the time it airs, we'll be in March. We'll see how much money she raised in this last month. But if it is a significant decline with her prospects declining, she'll run out of fuel soon. Right. Although she's not as spendy as the others. That is correct. And she's right now going through all these Super Tuesday states. She's campaigning in them, but she's also raising money in each one of them. And there does seem to

be enough Trump resistant Republicans who are willing to write checks so far to keep her going. So that that's why she's in it is money. There's still funding for her. We'll see if that lasts. The political argument that Mark is asking about there about her doing damage to herself with the MAGA wing of the party, she has clearly made a calculation that that ship has sailed, right? That if indeed the party— She's not his inheritor. She's not his heir. Correct. So if she's positioning herself for 2028, she's positioning herself for a Republican Party that doesn't exist right now, one that looks more like the Republican Party of yesteryear. In fact, she was on with Dana Bash yesterday on CNN, and it was such a sort of moment of truth serum.

You don't get that so often from politicians. Where Dana pressed her on this notion of the Republican Party that she's running for, and she said flatly, it's very possible I am running for a Republican Party that doesn't exist. You don't hear that from a candidate all that often. She also seems to be enjoying her truth-telling. This is what I thought she was like, and I think a lot of people did, before she was quite cautious as compared to the others, correct? Yes. And she still dances a little bit.

For instance, she raised her hand on the debate stage at that first debate in Milwaukee in August, and she pledged to support Donald Trump if he's the nominee, even if he's a convicted criminal. And she's been pressed on that. And even with all her anti-Trump rhetoric and the danger, she stands by that pledge. She won't do the full Chris Christie, if you will. So, yes. She still plays a little bit in that space of trying to figure out her role. But it's less and less every day.

And I think the point is elusive. I don't think there's a clear point to do that. Yeah. And she is seen as someone who can beat Biden significantly. Trump, you don't know, right? Right. I mean, the Biden-Trump race from today's vantage point looks like a real coin flip. And in poll after poll after poll, a Haley-Biden matchup is an overwhelming Haley victory. This is one of her selling points on the trail, except the party's not buying it. It's this electability argument. She can't get past the first gate. Exactly.

And the party does not buy it. And by the way, the fact that Donald Trump is running competitively with Joe Biden undercuts that argument. Right. Yeah. Okay. So from RFK Jr., Cornel West, Liz Cheney, if she runs, no labels, which seems to be faltering a little bit.

Talk about their role. So I think this could be enormously consequential. You have to start with the premise that this is likely in a Biden-Trump rematch to come down to three or four battleground states and maybe tens of thousands of votes across hundreds of millions cast, right? I mean, so, and as we saw in 2016 with Jill Stein, you can have a third-party candidate that actually has real impact. And she's still in here, by the way. She's in there, exactly. And she is running in the Green Party, which is on a lot of ballots. Now, right now, Robert Kennedy Jr. is just on the ballot in Utah.

His super PAC says they've gotten enough signatures to get him on the ballot in Georgia and Arizona. That would be hugely consequential if he is, and they're trying to get him on in Michigan as well. That hasn't been verified yet. If Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who right now, of all the people you listed because of name recognition, is sort of getting some level of support, if he's on these ballots in battleground states, I think that that could be a pretty big, significant deal. Now, the reality is, Cara, these third-party candidates tend to lose steam and support when it comes to Election Day. People end up then just focusing on the two choices. Although, Ralph Nader, Ross Perot.

There are examples. There's no doubt about it. And I think Kennedy may have some staying power with a sizable enough chunk to make a difference. Now, the question is, who does he help and hurt? I think all the polling on that shows it's a split decision. It is not clear whether that is a clear loser for Biden or if he takes a little bit more out of Trump's hide. Yeah, yeah, it's interesting. Now, one of the things we're going to get – let's talk first about Biden. Ezra Klein has come under fire for his musings over a brokered convention, fever dream of sorts,

this idea in Chicago, Democrats find a new candidate. Talk about that. And then we'll get to the real revolt in Michigan, for example, the possible real revolt, I guess. Yes, it is the dream of every political journalist I know to cover a brokered convention. Like that would just be amazing. It hasn't happened in my lifetime, right? But that's not like... Not for the rest of us, but go ahead. Okay, all right. That is not likely to happen.

I thought what Ezra Klein's essay and podcast sort of got at, though, was this continued hand-wringing in Democratic circles that Joe Biden is not putting their best foot forward and that there is still this conversation taking place among Democrats fretting about Biden being at the top of the ticket. I think he captured that and was offering an idea that it's not too late. I can't find anyone, when I ask every one of my Democratic sources, like percent chance Joe Biden is not the nominee, to a person they say zero percent chance. Zero. Yeah. I'm not an expert, but zero.

I can't account for some incapacitating health thing, obviously. But absent that, Joe Biden's not choosing, he's not stepping down. No, he's out and about, actually. He's been more out and about. He's ramping it up. He is ramping up the out and about. Like, and he looks okay. Like, he did okay on the Seth Meyers.

But we'll get to that in a second. He did face revolt in Michigan over his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas. Big issue. Protest organizers said they'd aim for 10,000 uncommitted votes. They got over 100,000. Although there have been higher than 10,000. That was a low bar. Yes, that was very expectations-managing.

Michigan is one of the states that determined the outcome of the election in the fall. Biden won the state by about 150,000 votes in 2020. Talk about this story. And is it critical? Because sometimes I think they'll just do the protest vote and then they'll vote for them in the end. They just did their protest. So just like I was talking about Trump's vulnerabilities that we saw with Haley's percentages, right? I think the same story is here, which is that I agree with you. I think it was obviously a very significant protest vote. I

mean, over 100,000 people participating in the Democratic primary to vote uncommitted, to send a message to Joe Biden that they want him to change his policy as it relates to the administration's support of Israel. So that is significant. I have little doubt that a large chunk of the Democrats that showed up and voted uncommitted will support Biden in a Biden-Trump election, but it's all about the margins. How many won't? How many will vote maybe if not for Trump or just not vote at all? It could impact the math. You're talking about a state that has 15 electoral votes. I think it is probably going to be the state that decides the election. Michigan.

Yep. You know, my son's a Michigan voter now. He's at University of Michigan. Oh, is he? Oh, okay. And is he registered to vote there? Yes, he is. Oh, wow. And did he vote in the primary? No, he was visiting his brother in Argentina.

See, he's an apathetic voter already. No, he's not. Oh, he's voting or he's not going to college. That's really pretty much my deal with him. But I do think it's going to be perhaps the most consequential state in this path to 270. And so seeing that last night, there's no mistaking it. I mean, Mitchell Andrew, the co-chair of the Biden campaign, was on with us last night during

our coverage and fully said, the former mayor of New Orleans, yeah. And he said, this is a serious problem. I mean, there was no trying to sugarcoat it. Now, it's a serious problem the Biden people believe they're working on. And you hear Biden change. Exactly. And serious problem. I mean, there was no trying to sugarcoat it. Now, it's a serious problem the Biden people believe they're working on. And you hear Biden change. Exactly. And as I believe, we have no idea where the Israel Hamas thing is going to be come September. Right. Are we going to, is Netanyahu still going to be in charge? We don't know what that's going to look like. So it could change. Exactly. So a lot of people obviously are fixated on the president's age. This has been a big thing, although he has been out and about. He's three years older than

Trump. That was actually a good answer on Seth Meyers. According to an ABC News poll, an overwhelming share of Americans, 86 percent, think he's too old. Just 62 percent say Trump is too old. Talk about this because it's just a persistent controversy. The New York Times sort of stepped in it a little bit or seemed to or people were mad at them over how many, how old he is kind of things, although I believe those started at the Washington Post. But talk about that, because it's interesting, because 73% of Democrats think he's too old, but only 35% of Republicans feel Trump's age is disqualifying, despite the fact that he makes just as many. You know, his wife is not the name Mercedes or whatever the heck you call her. Right, yes.

There is no doubt you're citing some of the polls. But across the board, Cara, the public perception is different for Trump than it is for Biden when it comes to age. That's just what we see. You know, we ask in our polling an open-ended question to just Democrats. What's your biggest concern about Joe Biden? And then we ask Republicans, what's your biggest concern about Donald Trump? Unprompted ask of Republicans, what's your biggest concern about Donald Trump? Unprompted. We don't offer options.

It's just an open-ended. 46% of Democrats say his age. So this isn't just some media narrative. Although they could have been convinced. I'm just saying this is of concern. Right. And I mean, as you and I are talking right now, the president is at his annual physical

and we will await to see how the White House sort of puts that out. Yes, if you can identify a whale. Wait, that wasn't in there. That's what Trump said. I don't know that there will be that part of the test here. And Biden, you see, you mentioned how he handled it on Seth Meyers. They've tried a whole bunch of things, some humor, some pushing back on it with a little more velocity to his remarks. back on it with a little more velocity to his remarks, they're still walking through how to neutralize or mitigate what they know to be is one of the biggest questions voters have.

And it's not just it's not about age. It's not the number. It's can he serve another four years? Does he have the vitality and fortitude to do this intense job. And Joe Biden has said time and time again, watch me. Watch me. That's his answer. Voters will. That will be part of their calculus. His State of the Union address on March 7th,

is that an opportunity for him to do that? To say, to reimagine? Because he's not uninteresting, but he's no drama, right? That kind of, that's what he sold himself as. Like, crazy over here is driving us nuts. I'm going to be calm. You're not going to read about me every day.

Well, I do think you're going to hear a lot of contrast in that State of the Union. This is his biggest opportunity to get before voters before his convention speech in August. And this is going to be a political campaign-style State of the Union. This is not— What points will he hit? Well, I just think he is going to make the contrast on Ukraine, on America's positioning in the world, because it's a stark contrast that they're going to sell. Different policies, yeah.

Right, just totally different policies. But on abortion rights, no doubt that'll be... So if you're looking for... This is not going to be a more traditional state of the union that is a laundry list of things that he hopes to get done. This is going to be setting the frame of how he wants to argue his case to the American people over the next eight months. So critical speech. I think without a doubt. Is there anything you think he'll focus on?

If you were advising him, what would you say? Oh, God. I'm not one to give political advice as much as I do. What topic? But I would be surprised if abortion rights is not a huge issue, a big piece of it. I don't mean he spends the most time on it, but will be one of the highlights that comes out of the speech. I mean, basically, every Democrat I talk to in the Biden campaign, in the larger Democratic universe, it's pretty clear to me the strategy is twofold. Donald Trump, make everything about a contrast with Trump, and abortion rights. That is the dual path they see to re-election. Which is aimed at women.

I have to tell you, I know a lot of Republican women, and they're quiet, but boy, are they pissed. It's fascinating. Not the MAGA ones, but... Look at the numbers on all these. When abortion is on the ballot, it's performing much better than just what the Democrats would do if it was alone. I mean, clearly it's a crossover kind of vote. We'll be back in a minute. Your business is ready for launch. But what's the most important thing to do before those doors open? Is it getting more social media followers?

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Visit Grammarly.com slash enterprise to learn more. Grammarly. Enterprise ready AI. Anyway, shifting gears, Donald Trump is a productive GOP nominee, despite losing to Biden in 2020 and 2022 wasn't good for him either, the civil and criminal cases he's facing. The race narrows to two. What do you think his maneuver is? Because he seems to be doing the greatest hits, which a lot of people don't like his greatest hits. Like, we don't want to hear him sing those again. But he's done the legal. He's trying to maneuver as a legal defendant and a candidate. Talk about what you feel like his strategy seems to be shaping up to be. Well, I think his strategy is to, and he has a proven successful track record at this, expanding the electorate, bringing new MAGA fans into the electorate that hadn't been part of it

before. So less about winning over the middle, the way we think politicians do in a general election, and more about expanding that base of support. That's what the legal, you're like, he's done the legal thing, meaning utilizing the trials to fortify his support with his base. And so if you expand the universe and make that base larger, that is one approach to it that I think they're pursuing. Now, I don't think it's just that, because I think politics is a game of addition. It's never just one thing. He is going to have to win back some of these independents that drifted away from him from the moment he became president, the 2018 midterms, the 2020 presidential, the 22 midterms. These independents left because of Donald Trump, and they have not come back.

He's going to have to try to find not all of them, but some slice of them to add to that notion of expanding the electorate, the base part of the electorate. So I think that's his electoral strategy. But think about also just what we're saying, Carrie. You just like rattled off because we're like, oh, he's got criminal indictments. I mean, this election is bananas to think about. is bananas to think about. A former president that the American people voted out of office who now has four indictments,

criminal indictments, 91 charges against him, sitting for trial. And has been losing cases. And is currently ahead in the race for president. Be like a bad boy, I guess. Pew found that in 2019,

64% of respondents believe Trump had definitely or probably broken the law when he was in office, when he was running for president. He got 47% of that believe Trump had definitely or probably broken the law when he was in office, when he was running for president. He got 47% of that vote in 2020. That implies a significant chunk of Americans are okay with that. Do these matter?

Because he's been playing them up, obviously, in fundraising, although that's not doing as well, right? His fundraising is a little weak. Part of the reason why he wants to overtake the RNC and, you know, he's now gotten moved out, Ronna Romney McDaniel, he's going to bring in Lara Trump, his daughter-in-law is the co-chair, I think is to make sure that the fundraising operation feeds into his needs. I know Nikki Haley is making this argument too, but I think she's on to something, making sure that the party is also aware of his legal fees. And that's part of the fundraising problem, right? Think about how much money he has had to— $90 million? Yeah, political—those are small dollars.

You're talking about—I mean, I don't know if your mother donates or whatever. Yes, she does. Okay, like, you're talking about people who, like, will give $10 or $25 of their, like, hard-earned money or whatever their amount that they have to spend for the week. And he's using it for his own legal fees, and they're okay with that. Yeah. So do the predicaments matter? Do you think it still is people love it, like that he breaks the law? I'm not so sure.

I think that— They like it or don't like it? No, no. I think that the predicaments will matter politically. I think it complicates what I was saying, that his need for some of those independents, some of those middle-of-the-road or even Republicans, but not Trump Republicans, he has to fortify all of that. And I think the trials complicate that group specifically. Yes, because they have to follow the law.

Right. And I don't think they are buying the argument that he's stronger because of it. I, you know, I think obviously the vast majority of Republicans seen it in all the exit polls, see it in a regular polling. They believe Donald Trump is being prosecuted, persecuted for political reasons. There's no doubt that he has successfully sold that to the vast majority of Republicans. But the vast majority of Republicans is just not enough on its own. And so I do think if indeed – if he is found guilty in the January 6th trial, I do think that that is going to be the moment that we know whether or not the independents will ever come back. Right, if they're ever going to come back. I don't know.

I have a lot of – it worries a lot of people, I know, on that in the independent area. It's just anecdotal. But now, one important person who's been on the fence about him who hasn't liked him is Mitch McConnell. He's announced he's retiring from his leadership role, not Senate, in November after the election. I'd like your thoughts on this. And will he endorse Trump? Because they have not spoken since January 6th, right? Yes, it's December of 2020, before January 6th. Right. Yeah, no love lost there, obviously, and all the name-calling Trump has done about McConnell's wife, who served in his cabinet.

Mitch McConnell's the longest-serving leader of either party in the United States Senate. So this is a real moment of change. It's not unexpected. Yes, he's going to endorse him. Mitch McConnell has said for the better part of a year, he's going to support the Republican nominee. I have no doubt that he will endorse Donald Trump. I don't think that matters much. Right. It's not going to be like energetic, right? Right. He's not going to be out there campaigning for him. First of all, he's 82. It's not going to be like energetic, right? Right. He's not going to be out there campaigning for him.

First of all, he's 82. He's not out there doing much of anything. But it is a symbol, though. It is a symbol that Donald Trump is back in charge of this party, as is the departure of Kevin McCarthy, ousted by the Trumpified part of the party. Trump's ouster of Ronald Romney McDaniel. Now McConnell is stepping down from leadership. You see these Republican figures that have just either been pushed out of the stage or ceding the stage to dealing with the political reality that it is not that Republican party. Right.

So it's now wholly the party of Trump from your perspective as you're covering it. Without a doubt. And I don't think that changes if Trump departs the stage. I mean, obviously, if he loses, there will be some impact on that. But I don't – it will still be Donald Trump's party. Even if he loses again. Yes. I mean, look at just what we went through for the last three years. He lost in 2020.

I don't rule out the fact that he's going to try to still maintain that grip on the party even after – if he were to lose in November. Yeah. But he skipped all the Republican candidate debates, one of which CNN hosted. But Trump and Biden have begun posturing around a televised debate. Talk about who's the most to gain or lose or what is this going to be? Uncomfortable, right? First of all, Americans are not very into this choice that they have, right? Like this is not an election that many people are very excited about. Right.

And it's also a rematch. So it's like a rerun of a show we've seen, right? Right. That being said, I think there's real vulnerability for both of them on the debate stage. I don't think this will be like every other— Name each vulnerability and strength, I guess. Joe Biden's performance, like his age and if he looks up to it, does he feed into that concern? Does he look vibrant?

Exactly. Because Trump screams a lot. He could be just as addled, but he screams. But he has this, exactly, right? Trump will be vulnerable legally. Like, there will be that kind of thing, just on what he says if these trials are ongoing at the time of the debate. But he's also vulnerable because some of his policy positions are not very popular, right? And so that is an exposure for him.

Yeah, on some of the policies, some of his policy. You know, immigration is a strength for him. But you could imagine if he is twisted on abortion rights or feels, you know, in a debate moment, does he feel the need to make sure the conservative Christian base is with him and not be in the more middle of the road where he would like to be politically? Which way he would. Yeah, exactly. He's made that crystal clear. Those kinds of things emerge in a debate and you, you know, see. And for Biden, it's mostly, does he look old, right? I think for Biden, it's his age. But obviously, as we were talking about, immigration is going to be a big topic. It is his weakest issue. Now, they believe the Democrats have this opening because the border security compromise bill

that came out of the Senate, Trump tanked in the House and Speaker Johnson agreed to shelve it. And they finally feel that they have something that they can say on immigration, that they are responsible for the failure of border security. But the thing people will be looking for, both of them, is how crazy is he and how old is he, essentially. You know, it reminds me of, if you want to do an old folks thing, Biden's the guy who sometimes can't find his room

at the old folks home and Trump's the guy in the cafeteria who's screaming about someone stealing his Jell-O when there is no Jell-O. That's how I look at it. Thank you. You should hire me as a political analyst. That's excellent.

I love it. I think you have been hired. But the guy who's screaming at the Jell-O seems more vibrant, even though he might be crazier. Right? Like, that's the thing. So Pew found in 2021 that as many as three-quarters of Trump voters incorrectly believe that Trump won the presidential election. Other polls have noted that a third of Americans believe Biden's victory was a result of voter fraud.

That's been consistent. As political director of CNN, how do you deal with this? Poor Brett Baier was trying it the other day, like in the interview with Trump, where he was like, you lost, you lost. And he kept going. How do you deliver fair and accurate news to audiences that believe that Biden stole the election? And how do you – does it alter how you make calls or how you think about coverage? I mean, I'll give you just the example that pops into my mind, which is that I – part of my job on air is I do the exit poll results on election night. And we ask this question that you're citing the Pew poll on about whether or not you believe Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election.

And overwhelmingly, Republicans in these primaries do not. And so I am reporting on air saying 60-something percent of Republicans, 70-something percent of Republicans do not believe Joe Biden was legitimately elected. I say, that is incorrect. He was legitimately elected. They believe something that is not true. But that is what they believe. That's the context I have to provide the viewer.

Because you can't ignore it. You can't say, oh, they believe in a lie. And so we should not pay attention to that. It's hugely consequential that they believe in this lie that Donald Trump has told them because it's part of how Donald Trump has maintained this grip on the party. Right. And so you have to keep saying it's a lie, but reporting it. And I don't mean like a hair on fire.

I mean, you just have to explain to your readers and viewers and listeners. Joe Biden is the legitimately elected president. This is a lie that Donald Trump is selling the party, and largely, they are buying into it. It's working. So one of the problems is news consumption is down considerably compared to the last presidential primary in 2020. Voters, when are voters going to pay attention? I mean, obviously, they're paying attention to a lot of things, but this is the fact that we don't want this race, pointer race, that hasn't yet begun because of the lukewarm feelings and things like that. Do you think about that? Does that come into

play? I do. And I'm kind of baffled by some of it, I have to admit, because the Biden campaign will tell you that part of the reason they believe that they are behind or even or even it's a coin toss of a race is that they don't think most americans have tuned in yet and realize that donald trump is actually going to be the nominee and is back and they point to all this survey research that they have that suggest especially for their targeted universe of voters that they need like drop off voters who aren't as engaged and what have you. That's the get a load of this guy. Yeah. So I do think there is some sense that the public has not fully focused on.

I think they know Trump is back. I don't know that they've realized. It's not the bleach guy. It's on right now. Like it's actually starting. And I think this is going to change real fast. Yeah. I'm a little dubious. When the

Biden campaign tells me that, I'm like, I mean, who thinks Donald Trump has left the stage? I mean, we still cover him a lot. We're covering his trial. You know, I mean, this is, he's a present figure. And their argument is, well, with important swaths of voters, they have not yet taken that measure that he is actually back. He says so many, like the whole thing about black people liking him because of the mugshot, it sort of goes, comes and goes. Yeah, well, I mean, this is for eight years now, right, of how you get accustomed to somebody who is so outside the realm of any norm in political rhetoric and discourse. And not everything can be a five-alarm fire all the time. And so do people get accustomed to it?

How can you deal with that in coverage? Because media gets criticized, not just CNN, but a lot of media gets criticized for that. It's like, you're not covering this. He said this thing. I remember when he said this stuff about NATO and then this bold stuff was still on. I'm like, that's a really terrible thing to say. This is really important. Yeah, it is very important for us to cover what both Biden and Trump are saying, most specifically, Cara, to your NATO point, about what they're promising to do.

NATO point, about what they're promising to do. I mean, I think that's, we have to stay focused on what is he campaigning on and selling to the American people as a choice, and what is he promising to do if he is president again? And I think we have to look at the ramifications of that, what that means for people. So policy, you're talking about time. Well, I think that should be a huge focus. And I don't think we have, just like we did not in his time as president need to cover every single tweet of his. Although it happened for a while, right? You can cover what – we make judgments all the time.

Forget politics. In all stories, like what are the important facts to bring to bear to any given story? And I think we have to apply the same scrutiny to Biden and Trump. I don't think we can let a pitch go by that needs to be called out factually or properly contextualized. So I want to talk about where political coverage is moving. How is social media shifting how candidates reach and persuade voters? I mean, for example, Obama used social media to great advantage in 2008 early, especially to organize and ask for money.

Trump has been a master troller. I called him that many years ago, and I kept saying it. And everyone's like, no, he's not. I'm like, no, he is. 15 years later, a major candidate, Ron DeSantis, formally announced his campaign on X, which was a mess. Actually, he's not very good at social. How do you look at it? Does it matter? Or is it just noise? Oh, no, I don't think it's just noise. I do think it matters. And I'm obsessed. I was just thinking of a pitch for us to do. And I've been thinking about this the last couple weeks because we were talking how the Biden team has sort of been gearing up in this space a little bit. These campaigns are content creators now.

Their social media person is excellent. Let me just tell you. Whoever's doing it is fantastic. Well, these campaigns have really become content creators. And they have to be because that – Very good point. And I am fascinated by that. It used to be the— You're the content creator.

Right, exactly. But now they are in many ways. And listen, White House's administrations have long sought to go over the heads of the media, right, and figure out how to get a message directly to voters. There's more opportunity for them to do that now more than ever. And so who sort of wins that battle of creating and shaping content? And I think you would be amazed how many people are hired on these campaigns or in consulting firms that are attached to these campaigns to develop this content. I mean, it's like digital farms of people. It's like that movie. Remember the one where they hired the Hollywood people?

Wag the dog. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know that we'll know yet. I mean, I think it's a little too early to know. I think they both have a lot. And again, I think Biden's just ramping up. And I think Trump has had something in place for a longer period of time.

It's just old. But it is totally different kinds of content. But I don't think we know yet which one is actually more resonant with Americans broadly. But capturing the voters' attention, I mean, you think about how we— Have you seen something you've liked? You're like, oh, that was good. I mean, the Biden stuff that leans into his strength on empathy is the kind of thing that gets virality in the internet, right? Like, it's like— Yeah. They like Dark Brandon, though. They do. Well, sure. And again, they'll play lots of different notes. And I think that's key.

You can't just do one thing. You've got to play different notes for different audiences. Biden was just recently doing a video with someone where he was telling the story of the car crash that killed his first wife and his daughter. And, you know, you listen to that story. Or Biden sat with Anderson Cooper for his podcast on grief and did a whole interview on that. Things that show a side of the candidate that you don't normally get in your daily news intake, I think, is a good thing. So Dark Brandon, to me, is an example of that, too. On the Trump side, part of it is because I've never seen in my entire career a base of voters of support that are as attached

to the candidate as Trump supporters are. I mean, it's an unbelievable bond that he has. And that material, that content that they create to keep their base animated, it is like glue for them. It keeps them really attached to them and keeps them donating. And so they have figured out a formula that keeps those folks engaged. Yeah, like Trump sneakers. They're terrible sneakers. I'm sorry. I know a lot about these. I've spoken to many sneaker people. So I have just a couple more questions. There are serious issues, though, here in terms of the social media. We've already seen one misuse of AI-generated messaging during the primaries. I'm thinking of the fake Biden robocall that went out to voters in New Hampshire, and the message reached only a few thousand voters. An AI-generated voice

of President Biden urged primary voters to sit this one out. It was a former Dean Phillips consultant admitted to commissioning the call. What a surprise. Look at Donald Segretti back in the Nixon administration pulled all kinds of the Canuck letter. This is not a new thing. But AI news is also flooding the zone. Even everywhere you see it. I just have a book come out, and there's books written by Kara Swisher suddenly on Amazon.

I've had to call them and say, you need to take these down. AI generated images of me and I'm very femmy, which is disturbing on every level. Talk about this idea of when you see this, how do you as a person covering this deal with it or figuring out how to do the coverage? Well, like the New Hampshire call, the deepfake call that impersonated Biden's voice is a perfect example. That call goes out. The press can't do the watchdog work of preventing that call from going out to voters. After the fact, we're able to expose it, track it down. Good investigative reporting can figure out who is responsible for it weeks later. But isn't the damage already done?

Didn't the Biden voice already potentially suppress some vote? So I think we're always going to be in this position, Cara, of running behind these problems instead of being able to run ahead of them. The technology impact and AI or deepfakes, I don't know how the press can get ahead of that. We're always going to be coming up behind it. Well, one thing is you're a clear target for misinformation. We have deep fakes and AI. I mean, we have a thorough vetting process for any information that's coming into the building for source approval, for how we know that information to be true. Does that mean that some news organization is not going to get tripped up by something?

Is it a big worry for you? Yeah, it is a big worry for me. And like I said, I don't think there's some silver bullet guard against it from happening other than – There's probably more of it than ever. Yeah, but you have dedicated, smart journalists who are committed their daily jobs to vetting information before we present it to our audiences. Which some people don't. They just put it out there. So two more questions.

One, earlier this year, Mark Thompson said it was time for a revolution at CNN. You're not running this show, but how do you change, you know, they're looking at TV production, making big changes to digital. If you were to say one thing day to day, how it affects politics at CNN, what is something you are leaning into? That I'm leaning into in terms of? Of a change to how people receive the political news you're doing. I just think it's good.

What have you focused on more in this election than the last one? So I think more in editorial spaces than this. For instance, I think the democracy watch aspect is a beat unto itself in coverage in a way that it was not prior to 2020. We had it standing up in 2020 because Donald Trump was previewing for us in real time what he was going to do after the election. But that has to be a robust piece of coverage, like covering what elections officials, voting officers, these volunteers, who, by the way, many of them don't think it's worth it anymore. There's going to be an emptying out of institutional knowledge about how to administer

elections at precisely the moment that elections have their most scrutiny placed on it. And that concerns me, but it requires us to put a team of journalists and producers and reporters together to make sure that we are covering that aspect. So that, to me, it's like I look for what is new that we can't sort of turn a blind eye to. So that's an editorial thing. And that's an editorial thing. In terms of like the – this goes back to what we were saying before. Our job is we've got to take the facts that we report, the context that we bring to bear into so many different forms of storytelling.

And that, to me, is the transformation. It used to be you just printed a newspaper or you put up a broadcast piece. We're so far beyond that. And so I just think accelerating how we continue to take that journalism and do the storytelling in all these different forms. That's the mission.

Last question. I talked to Ambassador Rahm Emanuel a few weeks ago. He told me that every election has a story. He said that for Hillary Clinton in 2016, the story was continuity. For Trump, the story was change. Same thing with Obama in a lot of ways. Hope, I guess, for Obama. Change won.

It's still early. And I hate to be this reductive, but what would be the one-word story for this election so far? Besides bananas, you can't use that one. I don't know that I have a word. Let me just think through this. You can have a few. I do a podcast here at CNN, and I recently had on Terry McAuliffe, the former DNC chair and the Virginia governor. And he said to me, I want to apologize to all your listeners, because I've told them for four decades that every election is the most important election of their lifetime.

But I actually mean it for this one. So I do think there is such a difference in vision for America between Trump and Biden that I do believe I've never covered as consequential an election. So the future of America sounds so stupid because shouldn't every election be about that? But that actually, to me, it's at a crossroads, and I think that is going to be the story of this election. Because on one hand, a lot of people think, depending on the outcome, it could be the last election you cover. No, you know, of course, that's a little dramatic. But it's two roads, right? Without a doubt.

Two roads. That's two words, but that would work for me. Anyway, David, thank you so much. Thank you, Cara. This has been so fun and so smart. I love hearing you at length. I wish you were on longer. We like substance here.

Yeah, I love it. Thank you. Deep. We're deep. And congratulations on the book. Thank you. I will see how that goes. All right.

Thank you so much. On with Cara Swisher is produced by Naeem Eraza, Christian Castro Rossell, Kateri Yochum, Megan Cunane, Megan Burney, and Michael McDowell. Special thanks to Mary Mathis, Kate Gallagher, Andrea Lopez-Cruzado,

and also to the folks at CNN who helped us record this episode, especially Dan Bloom. Our engineers are Fernando Arruda and Rick Kwan, and our theme music is by Trackademics. If you're already following the show,

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