On with Kara Swisher - Is Biden the Best Democrats Can Do?

Episode Date: September 21, 2023

Biden’s poll numbers are atrocious, and in recent columns from The Washington Post to The New York Times and The National Journal, the punditocracy has started to sour on the president’s 2024 ambitions. Columnists have weighed in on why Biden could lose to Trump — and whether it’d be better for him to step aside. Is this a phase, a pipe dream or an actual crisis? We convene an all-star panel to discuss. Our guests: Franklin Foer, staff writer for The Atlantic and author of the recently released The Last Politician, a look a Biden’s first two years in office; Astead Herndon, national political reporter for The New York Times and host of The Run-Up; Jen Psaki, former White House press secretary for the Biden administration and host of Inside with Jen Psaki on MSNBC; and Alex Thompson, national political correspondent for Axios.  Questions or comments? Email us at [e-mail] or find us on social media. We’re on Instagram/Threads as @karaswisher and @nayeemaraza.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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set, grow. Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today. Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial. ConstantContact.ca Hi, everyone, from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. This is On with Kara Swisher, and I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Naeem Araza. And this week, we're in the midst of a panic about Joe Biden. Almost eight of 10 voters think he's too old to be effective in the second term. His popularity amongst non-white voters is sliding.

And perhaps most damning for someone who's seen as the only hope to beat Trump over the last years. Real clear politics, average of national polls now has Trump beaten Biden. Yeah, we'll see. It's early. It is early. But the conversation about this is no longer feeling as muzzled. There are op-ed pages around the country burning up with calls for Biden to step aside in the 2024. The most prominent one being written by David Ignatius. Yeah, David Ignatius was my boss many years ago, by the way, I know him really well. And it was, you know, it probably hurt the

most because of his reputation among liberals. And he's also sort of a Washington institution. It was sort of, you know, it had to be said by the Washington institution. I can't say I thought I liked the column very much, but it was sort of saying what everyone's been saying, like a lot more people have been saying. But because it was from him, it mattered more. And he didn't mince words, and the whole column had sort of an urgent tone. As he put it, time is running out. In a month or so, the decision will be cast in stone. Finally, someone has the guts to say it.

I was like, a lot of people have been saying it, but okay. Not as many as have been saying it in private. Yes, that's true. Anyway, and then another David at the Washington Post, who I also worked with many years ago, David Vondrelli, had one. I actually ran into David Shipley, who runs the Washington Post editorial section. And I said, is there any more Davids coming on this topic at a party? And he laughed. And then Ross Douthat at the New York Times wrote a column explaining how Biden is so unpopular. Charlie Cook had one in the National Journal. It seems like all the dudes

are piling on this one. They are. They are. Maureen Douthat wrote that column a year ago. Exactly. Which she pointed out to me. But yes, I agree. Maureen was on it early. So we decided to do a panel and ask, what is really going on? We're 13 months away from the election. On the Republican side, you've got Trump seemingly running away with the nomination, despite all his many, many legal woes and potential jail time on the horizon. But on the Democratic side, you've got a president whose past landmark legislation is overseeing a surprisingly resilient economy, but who is not energizing voters. He is almost mortifying them.

Well, in a lot of ways. I think a lot of it's Beltway stuff. And we'll see. I just don't know if we really have a handle on anything yet. I think if something gets said over and over again, and especially when they're sort of equalizing Trump's problems, which are rather severe in terms of seriousness, and Biden's, they're kind of trying to find ways in. And this is, you know, as they have done with many things, this this is a good way in everyone has an older relative that they're concerned about right and so it's something everybody can can relate to and it's effective in that when you say they you mean they being republicans yes the republicans and also the democrats realize it

right because again everyone has an elderly person who they're worried about their cognition i don't think it's so insidious i I mean, I think the Republicans are trying to draw parallels, and you see that in the impeachment proceedings. You see that in how they're framing the documents case, like quite different in all kinds of ways. But I think it's just sitting here watching these two old white guys duke it out for president again feels quite deflating. Yeah, it's exhausting. It's deflating to everybody.

I would point out Trump is only three years younger and says wacky shit all the time. And I think what it is, the other day he said World War II, he made all kinds of cognitive problems. And of course, everyone's like, he's just wacky, not old. And I'm like, is he old and wacky? Or is he wacky and old, which is worse than just old? You know, I mean, so I think what's really interesting, he seems more vigorous. So he's sort of a more energetic, angry old man shaking his fist at people from his lawn. And that seems to be okay versus Biden because he's quieter. He's sweeter. He's sweeter. At the same time, the question is, is everyone going to fall in line, right? Is everyone just going to fall in line? They will. Maybe some of these crazy theories that you hear at dinner parties are going to come true because you have a lot of conversations with people and hear people throwing out all kinds of theories. So one is that Trump will get convicted and he'll either go to jail or the 14th Amendment

is going to bar him from running because he took part in an insurrection. Well, innocent until proven guilty, but he's got a lot of serious legal problems. Another theory is that there's going to be some third-party candidate that will emerge, and Joe Manchin or someone would ruin it for Biden, or maybe even win the whole thing. Yeah, right. I'll be waiting for that one. Skeptical. The last one is that Biden will drop out. I heard this one from somebody in DC, actually. They were giving me an exact timeline, like in November, because then the primary will be late enough that it's not too crowded.

And certainly Newsom is going to be the heir apparent, this person was telling me. Sure, why not? I don't know. I have no idea. I think he's running. I think he's as sharp, much sharper than people think. And I think he and Trump are going to run against each other. But we'll see.

Barring any weird thing like an illness or putting him in jail, I think that's the race. These are reasonable people, people in the know. I think sometimes these are pipe dreams, right? And so we wanted to make sense of it all, see the critiques against Biden's age, the will he or won't he scenarios, the future of the matchup. And so on Monday, we brought in a panel of experts to help us make sense of it all. That's right. Kara, tell the people who our guests are. It's Jen Psaki, who I really adore. She's host of Inside with Jen Psaki on MSNBC, and she's a longtime Democratic insider, most recently White House press secretary for the Biden administration, but she's having a pretty good career as a broadcaster now.

She's fantastic. She is. Franklin Foer is a staff writer for The Atlantic. He's the author of The Last Politician, a recently published book on the first two years of the Biden administration. Also a terrific reporter. Alex Thompson is the national political correspondent for Axios. And Ested Herndon is the national political reporter for The New York Times and host of the Times podcast, The Run-Up. All experts and have different points of view on this stuff. So we wanted to really have a substantive conversation

because a lot of this on cable news feels so horse racy, but we wanted longer term thoughts from these people. Yeah, and we wanted a panel with divergent views. Stead's reporting has him in the field talking to voters in far flung districts everywhere from Iowa to Michigan, North Carolina, everywhere in between. Franklin and Alex, of course, are very well sourced reporters who get the scoops inside the Biden administration or talking more to the administration probably than to voters. And then Jen, of course, is the most insider you could get. But also very honest about what's happening inside. She's not one to just toe the line always. Yeah, she says things and she has a point of view.

She likes them. She likes them. I think it's hard. It's always hard to shed that experience in anything you do, right? Sure, 100%. And I think she would be the first to say that. Yes, 100%. experience in anything you do, right? Sure, 100%. And I think she would be the first to say that.

Yes, 100%. Anyways, we'll take a quick break and we'll be back with our panel to discuss the great octogenarian race of 2024. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see? For the longest time, we have these images of somebody sitting crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night. And honestly, that's not what it is anymore. That's Ian Mitchell, a banker turned fraud fighter. These days, online scams look more like crime syndicates than individual con artists, and they're making bank. Last year, scammers made off with more than $10 billion.

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Seems to be this is the hot thing to write about at this moment. Each of you, is this Biden is in trouble narrative a panic phrase that will pass that the media tends to indulge in? Or is it here to stay? Astead, why don't you go first? I think it's real. And I think it but I don't you go first? I think it's real. And I think it but I don't think it's like I think it's overdue. I think Democrats were overly I think the narrative was overly confident at the beginning of the year and post midterms and underrated how close this type of election would be. And I think people are coming down to earth to say like, whoever the Republican is, even

if it's Donald Trump can very much win. Okay, Franklin. I think it's a moment of pundit wish-casting where there's this desire to change the horse race on some level, but the age issue that Biden has is obviously deeply implanted in voters' minds, and that's the thing that's causing the panic. And his White House, his campaign needs to find some way to address it so that they can mitigate it.

Alex? Yeah, I don't think the panic mode is going anywhere. I think we're going to be seeing this. But I would say that I don't think Joe Biden is going anywhere. Because Joe Biden, in his mind, the idea that he would be sitting on election night, and Donald Trump wins, and he didn't run, I think he can't live with himself. If that's the case, he thinks he's the most selectable Democrat out there. He thinks he has a record to run on. So I do think this is panic mode, but it's also wish casting. Okay. Jen, you worked, of course, the administration. Now you have a show. I mean, look, everybody's already said smart things, but I think, yes, it's sticking

around. He's still going to be the oldest person. He's already the oldest person as president. He will also continue to be the oldest person if he's reelected. But I also think it's not the worst thing for Democrats, because there are many Democrats out there who think, how could anyone possibly not be Donald Trump? And it's like, well, it's going to be close till the end. So not the worst thing. I do also agree with what Frank said about this wish casting, right? This is often what happens in this stage of the primary, which is that there is a wish and a hope for some magical purple unicorn who does not exist. And that's the stage we're in. We're not yet in the contrast stage. That's the stage they really need to get to. But you're starting to see some inklings of

the contrast, the way that the president pushed back on impeachment a little bit last week, a little bit, a little bit. I think they're going to get to it probably by early next year, and we'll see a kind of a slow roll of it. But that's when people start to kind of come home historically to like, you know what, I wanted a purple unicorn. There's no purple unicorn. This guy is better than the other guy. It's a choice. Okay. So let's go through what people are citing as Biden's perceived weaknesses, starting with concerns about his age. Joe Scarborough recently said that every Democrat he talks privately to says Biden is too old to run. Alex, you covered the administration.

What are you hearing? Yeah, I mean, I think there's even concern inside the administration about, you know, Joe Biden being president at 86. They don't think that he's incapable, but obviously it's a concern. I also think that inside the White House, they are really trying to figure out how to make these poll numbers shift. And you also see a bit of a risk averse attitude. This is why you've seen recent changes. You notice that he's not doing the full steps of Air Force One. They're basically saying like, yeah, maybe it looks a little bit embarrassing. You have reporters sort of commenting on it, but that's much better than having him trip one more time.

You also see him in tennis shoes a little bit more. Steps they are taking in order to make sure that he does not have another fall. But what else they can do in order to actually change those numbers in a significant way? We've all seen the polling. I don't think they've figured it out yet. And I mean, I don't know if anyone has a clear answer on it. Right. So just to be clear, he was 80, he's 82 at the outset of the second term, be 86 when he gets on a helicopter and rides away, if he wins. Yes. Franklin, you spent a lot of time writing this book.

What are the worries inside the administration and outside? I think that the problem is, is that his inability to finish a sentence or the fact that his stories occasionally trail off is now on a continuum with Trump being a lunatic. And this is in part something that they need to combat. It's also a media failing as well, that there's just inability to talk about the relative problems that these two senior citizens have, which I think are not the same in kind, and they're being smushed together. And so, you know, when I think about this question, I think, okay, would I prefer not to have an 86-year-old president?

Speaking personally, I would prefer not to have an 86-year-old president. You know, is his mental acuity currently a problem? No, it's not. If you gave him the type of mental acuity test that Nikki Haley talks about giving him, he would pass that. This is that, I don't know, was there an apple involved or the glasses or woman, camera, man? Man, woman, camera, I don't know, was there an apple involved or the glasses or woman, camera, man? Man, woman, camera. I don't even remember what it was yet. I wouldn't pass it, but go ahead. Maybe we'd all fail.

But if, you know, then there's this question of physical energy, which is, I think, different sort of question. And it is in part a political question because, you know, the question is, does he have the energy to conduct a full general election campaign? And I think that's a very open question. Ashton? Yeah, I mean, I think that the way that I hear voters talking about this is not kind of similar to, I think, the kind of political calculations, right? I think Biden and the campaign are clearly going to make a kind of comparative argument that's been laid out here about them versus Donald Trump. But it's like never expressed

like that. It's that he was elected in the sense of an emergency, and they didn't really think he would last this long. Like, it's not that complicated. I think it's a persistent problem, because there's nothing that putting him out on the trail can do about that. In fact, putting him back on the trail only reminds him of that fact, right? And so I don't think necessarily that for the majority of people at least I talk to, that they think Biden and Trump are the same, right? And so I don't think necessarily that for the majority of people, at least I talk to, that they think Biden and Trump are the same, right? But it's that they think that the fact that the political system has produced these results has made them feel disconnected. And so I feel like I hear about not voting. I hear about third party. I hear about like, we have a record number of people just mentioning other options without even getting them in polling.

And so I'm saying it's not necessarily to me that it is expressed in kind of flattening Biden and Trump to the same more so than it is a kind of dissatisfaction. It just continues a dissatisfaction with both parties. Right. And I'm saying that's the that's the thing that I don't know. Think we know how that plays out in the next year. That's a very good point. I want to get to that in a minute. But does it help or hurt that there's other elderly people struggling in our political universe, right? You see Dian Feinstein, Mitch McConnell having his moments. Does that affect it that everyone's thinking old Congress and there's the head of it? Personally, I think it affects it. Yeah. No,

I don't think it's good for Biden. I don't think McConnell's good for Biden. And there's a DNR distinction. I think the olds are together. It unquestionably hurts, I think. I mean, because there is this feeling that Astead referenced, which is like, the feeling of like, these people are so old. They're so old and white. I mean, let's be you know, and they're disconnected from what we're experiencing from what we're experiencing and what we're living and all of them are old. And why are all these old people running Washington? Now, they're not the same, obviously, different health, all the things we can explain it. But when you're explaining it, it's kind of a challenge. So I think it's unquestionably

bad. I also thought is that what you said was interesting. The conversations happening out in the country, and I'm like, I look at polling, I go out travel with people, I've been on campaigns, whatever, are so different from I mean, the David Ignatius column about Biden, Biden and the Biden and Harris team in the White House has challenges about running for running for reelection. Unquestionably, we're talking about them. We're talking about them. That is not the conversation happening in the country. That is a conversation outlined in that op-ed that is happening at like dinner parties in Washington and maybe some other coastal cities. Those are also important people. Elite. Georgetown dinner parties. Well, yes. But my point is, are those important people? Sure. But like it is not a definition of what the challenges are. There are different challenges in my view. And when you were talking, it just made me think of that. You know, it's interesting because one of the things it read like to me was it had to be said. But I was like, but people are saying it already. But OK, but it's who said it kind of thing.

Do you think that's fair? I said, well, it's been funny to me because, you know, you go to the campaign and you ask about age and they act like you crossed this like crazy boundary that like, how dare you ask about this man's age? And like you talk to someone, a regular person, I was like five, six days in the Iowa State Fair. And it's every single second. Right. It's all the time. And so the taboo around talking about his age is really a White House, Washington driven thing that has created a political insulation that is helpful for Biden. So I get it. I get why they're doing it. But the idea that it is somehow not a thing to talk about is really, really out of whack. In fact, it is the foremost thing. Even at the beginning of the year, from midterms to now, I would get asked all the time about what the other options are going to be

for Democrats. And I'm like, no, it's going to be Joe Biden. He's going to run again and he's going to be the nominee. And people would be shocked. Right. And you see this in polling over that, like people were consistently saying they want another option, completely consistently saying they wanted other things. I don't know if that actually is true. Right. When you put people's names to it, it definitely collapses more so than the figment of the imagination.

It definitely collapses more so than the figment of the imagination. But the reality is that the assumption that he would be on this coronation to the next reelection was very much, much more a Beltway thing than ever translated outside. Very fair point. OK, we're going to voter sentiment in a moment, but let's talk about how empirically what's going on is ability to do the job. I'm going to start with you, Franklin. There's a critique that this is a staff run administration. Republicans want to make the argument that the president is absent or a figurehead. You've got a couple of years reporting inside the administration in your book. What do you make of those claims? I'd say it's kind of the opposite in a way that I think most people are surprised by,

but Jen Psaki probably won't be, that he's somebody who is surrounded by a group of people, most of whom are in the innermost layer, are people who've been with him, some of them since the 1980s, when they were very young staffers working for him. And that dynamic is still very much in play. It's kind of this familial structure around him, where everybody is very accustomed to the way that Joe Biden thinks, the types of questions that he asks. I would say that more than being staff-run, when the most powerful people in his staff tend to object to something that he wants to do, they almost universally get overruled. And then there are lots of examples of the ways in which when confronted with problem A, his tendency is not

to delegate, it's to throw himself into it. So whether it's something like the baby formula shortage, and he's like tracking pallets coming in from Europe, or the Afghanistan withdrawal, where he's got a map of Kabul out on the desk and is like the one, you know, trying to figure out the routes for refugees to get to the airport himself. I mean, I think he could probably would benefit oftentimes from being more removed from the details of policy. Yeah, it's like that SNL skit with Ronald Reagan, if you remember many years ago, where he's avuncular, and then the door closes, and he's a genius. He's like an evil genius of all kinds. Instead, how do these factors impact voter turnout? Because early this summer on your New York Times podcast, The Run-Up, Julian Castro argued

that Democrats might not be as motivated to turn out in 24. And that was in part because of his age. Yeah, I mean, I think that you see that in polling consistently. The ups and downs of Biden in polling have gone from terrible because Democrats have fallen out to bad because they're somewhat with him, right? That's really the distinction we've seen over the last year and a half. And the last summer, well, you know, that was at its kind of lowest point. I think we've seen some bounce back there, but it's not consistent. I mean, the Times polling, Nate Cohn did a great column about this in the

last couple weeks. There are consistent signs of erosion among non-white communities. There's consistent signs of erosion among voters under the age of 40. That was true even when he was running pre-2020 in the primary. So I'm saying like some of this is a party that's just not reinvigorated what we would, I think, kind of call the Obama coalition of 08 and 12, right? The new versions of young people, the younger versions of those people of color and college grads are not identifying with Democrats in the same way. And so this hasn't been disastrous for the party because they've made up those gains in other places, right? But we should be honest, this is a wider Democratic Party. This is a more college educated Democratic Party. This is not Barack Obama's Democratic Party. And so I think if there's an honesty around that,

then it makes a lot of sense to me. But if we're talking about turnout, specifically among those kind of base coalitions, there is real concern about those things over the next year. And there's real concern in states where that could be a tipping point, right? So where we've seen Democrats in, say, the Wisconsin's make up a lot of ground in Joe Biden's time has not been in the Milwaukee's doing something different, right? It's been in making up the kind of floor that they had in rural communities, driving out, you know, more folks in and around Madison, doing better around the suburbs. Like, and that's helped them, like, right? That's flipped the whole Supreme Court race. So I don't think that's a bad thing. I just think it's a different thing than what the, than the communities

we have typically associated with driving the Democratic Party's biggest result. Right. So polling is another weakness, as you noted, of course, big caveat. This is horse race politics. How much faith do we put in polls 13 months out? I always think people don't really know what they think or it's nothing's baked, at least. Alex, you start and then Franklin and Jen. Yeah, I mean, any you talk to anyone on the Biden campaign, they'll very clearly point out that I believe this was the month when Nate Silver wrote a New York Times Magazine story in 2011 saying is Obama toast. It was like when there was a jobs report where there was zero jobs created. And they'll point out that, you know, 13 months is too early. That being said, you can you do see some early urgency from the Biden team. They're spending $25 million on TV already, almost all in pro-Biden ads.

They're trying to boost his numbers to a sense point, really work on that erosion among Democrats, not necessarily trying to attack Trump. I imagine there's been a few of those, and that will come along. I can tell you, though, people that have gone to the White House with their worries about these poll numbers, Mike Donilon, who's sort of like the Biden whisperer and sort of strategist, you know, there's sort of a confidence that at the end of the day, the combination of Trump being the nominee, abortion rights, and then you sort of at least fight to a draw if not get an advantage on the economy, you know, that ultimately will lead to a draw if not get an advantage on the economy, you know, that ultimately

will lead to a Biden reelection. Franklin? Yeah, they were contrarian about the 2022 election, where everybody was saying, you've got to talk about crime, you've got to talk about the economy. And they were pretty resolute about saying, no, we're going to stick to our attack on the ultra MAGA Republicans. And in the end, their political instincts were right about that, which doesn't mean that they're going to be correct about this going forward. But you have the abortion issue, you do have this ultra mega thing. And those those are real. I think also the thing that is interesting that Ested was hinting at, which is that there could be this election could have a different dynamic where we're used to having Democratic candidates have to run up three

or four point advantages in the popular vote in order to win the electoral college. But you're going to have a lot of erosion, it seems like in places like California and New York. And so the spread in the popular vote could be much narrower. And that doesn't necessarily turn into an electoral. Yeah. Jen, you know, no one's going to recreate the Obama coalition. I worked for him on both campaigns. No one's been able to recreate it. They need to create their own coalition. This is what they will tell you. And this is like how they think about it. And part of it is to tap into some of the dynamics that others have mentioned, including the abortion issue. What's tricky is the abortion issue is women are still at risk across the country. But it was so fresh in 2022.

It was so on people's minds. You really have to figure out how to reengage people because one of the challenges they've had, we've all talked about this, is that like there's voters out there who hate everyone. Like they're the double haters. They hate all the candidates. And it's like, how do you turn those out? Some of them are these white working class, non-college educated women, right? Biden is not going to win them, but if he can lose them by less,

that is a very helpful coalition for him or group of people, and they are enraged by the abortion issue. That is also a group that helped in 2022 Democrats, helped Glenn Youngkin for a different reason in 2021. So they're mindful of what their coalition is, and it's not going to look like Obama. You just described my mother. Well, yeah.

Biden, he's old. Trump's an idiot. Right. So it's like, fine. I mean, so there is some of that. Is that like what we want in our political system? No, but like here we are. So I'm still going to slow roller to the polling site.

Anyway, let's dive into the nitty gritty here. Instead, you mentioned Biden is struggling with Black and Latino voters. Biden is roughly 53% versus 70% in 2020. You're talking to these voters. What do you think explains this drop in support, except like, oh, is there another movie here? Yeah, I think, you know,

we mostly see that erosion happening in the biggest ways among sub 40 Black voters and Latino voters. I think that there is a cross-racial kind of generational split that's happening here. I mean, some of this stuff is ideological. This was the group that was more into progressive candidates in the 2020 primary, who wants more things talked about kind of structurally, I think, as a greater dissatisfaction with system. I think there's, and you know, specific to Black communities, there's increasingly less identification with Democrats as a whole, right? You have less people

going to church, you have less of that kind of like consistent through line between their touch points with the Democratic Party that used to exist in these communities for a long time. I also think that we should just call it out. Like, post-Obama, I think Democrats thought they could representation their way to getting all these votes. They thought that if they put the right number of people in the right number of positions, then that means that all these people would vote for them. Nobody told them that was true. That was an idea that they made up. Right. And so I'm saying like that just hasn't panned out. I'm obsessed with the with the switch.

You know, we did an episode about this from Iowa to South Carolina because I frankly think that ended the primary right there. Like, if this primary was still starting in Iowa for Democrats, I think your Dean Phillips of the world, I think your other candidates have a lot of a different infrastructure that was built in in those early states. Biden used the post midterm moment to really collapse the primary. And I think that that was a really, really important thing that happened at the beginning of the year, almost without any media scrutiny. And so, you know, I think the combo of those things has really set the party in to this decision, right? Like it's locked in, they're rolling with Biden and whatever pluses and minuses that takes. It's riding with Biden.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And so I just think that like, you know, I think that that has a lot of benefits that we should acknowledge, right? I don't want to be overly pessimistic. Right. Joe Biden might very well cakewalk his way to this winning this election again because Joe because Donald Trump is making his way to jail. Right. But there's a lot of reasons why that is completely disconnected from voter sentiment. And I think just fuels that system dissatisfaction. I think it's the theme for the next rest of the year.

So, Jen, publicly, the White House tells reporters they're not worried about polls. And then what do they say to you privately since you've been in there? Well, and I also was in there, whatever it was, 15, 16 months ago. I mean, like, I think the age issue, whenever people bring it up, they think it's like they're not tracking it. They're fully tracking it. Right. I mean, it's not that it's just popped up as an issue in the last six months. Even when I was there, which is 15, 16 months ago, that was the issue that, you know, I don't know if you've looked at polls where you get kind of bubbles of the numbers that pop, and it popped

in ways you wouldn't expect, right? In ways like, I don't know if you'll remember when at the Easter egg roll back in 2022, when like the person dressed as the Easter bunny was, like, kind of trying to stop him from answering questions. That, who was a staffer, obviously, that popped as, like, an age issue. It wasn't, right? But point is, they're fully tracking it. This notion that, like, he should be out there talking about Trump's legal issues, they find that to be kind of an absurd argument. I kind of agree with them on that in this moment. And they're well aware of kind of this issue of the need to excite people. Now, what they will also say, which is true, and I worked for Obama,

Obama, the first Black president, his support among African-American voters at this time was like in the 50s or 60s or something like that. I don't remember the exact number because of what Ested mentioned, because if you don't deliver on the totality of what you promised, people feel dissatisfied, especially when they're the root and the base of how you got elected. And so that's not new to Biden, but it is a challenge they're going to have to overcome. We'll be back in a minute. Support for this show comes from Grammarly. 88% of the work week is spent communicating, comes from Grammarly. 88% of the work week is spent communicating, typing, talking, and going back and forth on topics until everyone is on the same page. It's time for a change. It's time for

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70,000 teams and 30 million people who trust Grammarly to elevate their communication. Visit grammarly.com slash enterprise to learn more. Grammarly, enterprise-ready AI. Support for this show comes from Indeed. If you need to hire, you may need Indeed. Indeed is a matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors, according to Indeed data,

and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast. Listeners of this show can get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at Indeed.com slash podcast. Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now and say you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Biden is being blamed for economic woes, and that's the way it goes. But strangely, the economy is actually doing well, and the administration has achieved a lot. I want to do a lightning round of some of these critiques and assess them. Franklin, let's start with you. Pandemic, a big concern among voters, seems to be their

worst off post-pandemic. Is the Biden administration a fair scapegoat for that economic critique from voters? No. I think that the Biden administration, one of the political struggles has been its inability to connect with its victories with voter sentiment. Biden was supposed to be this guy who understood that good politics and good policy were deeply interconnected. It was his frustration with the Obama administration that they didn't talk enough about what was in the initial stimulus. And there were all these plans that they had for going on the road to pitch these sorts of things. And most of the country, understandably, given the name of the legislation, they don't know what's in the Inflation Reduction Act.

There's no sense that Biden is responsible for the boom in American manufacturing that's happened now. Inflation is lower here than other parts of the world. And yet none of that really seems to matter. And I'm not sure how much of it is just a messaging problem. Inflation is a special type of economic pain that people feel all the time. And maybe it just needs to recede a little bit deeper into the memory for them to get any credit for any of the good things that they've done on

the economy. Instead, strikes, another group that feels worse off are workers and unions. We're seeing strikes in Hollywood, perhaps even more important to DC, strikes in the auto industry. The UAW went on strike last week. Obviously, the longer it goes, the more economy will suffer, and Biden along with it. How much is this going to hurt Biden, and can he be active in the resolution? Now, Trump just attacked the union in an interview, like, rather vehemently. So, that was a gift. Yeah, I mean, I think that Biden would see this as actually a place that he can make gains. I mean, Biden, pro-union president, will feel like a closeness to those actual individual leaders. They will have long histories. I mean, I think he's shown a good track record of that over the years. I think with this one specifically, you see some Republicans, you know,

trying to make a lot of the fact that the union's fears about the electric vehicle transition should be like a way to kind of wedge this against Democrats. The problem is like, like Donald Trump isn't the one making that argument. So like, I don't like exactly know kind of where the kind of politics fall on there. But I imagine that like something, you know, like, you know, Democrats want chances to stand with workers, and we'll, and we'll seek to seek those out. And I think we've seen different signs that say, like, you know, union membership kind of across the country and kind of the increasing kind of like workers push around that stuff has benefited Democrats in some areas. But I think the specifics of the how long and what issues become big in Detroit and Michigan will kind of matter too much to know right now. Yeah, you've seen Whitmer really tighten herself with the workers, which was interesting. A bunch of very clever ads.

She's a rather clever politician. But the administration has received a lot and the economy is doing quite well. Inflation down, employment numbers are great, threat of recession continues to recede. Biden isn't getting credit for it. Why three out of four voters say inflation is headed in the wrong direction, Jen? And why do voters trust Trump over Biden on the economy by 11 points? It seems like a narrative problem. How do you fix that? I mean, they wish they knew, right? I mean, and this has been a problem, again, back to when I was there about him getting credit or not credit for economic

accomplishments. Look, there's a range of issues at play, including the fact that it's hard to break through with any of this. This is not a blame the media. It's a reality of what the biggest stories are. So even though he's out there doing stuff in local communities, it's just not on the front pages or the headlines or leading the evening news. It's not because there's bigger things happening, right? Or bigger things with news value happening. That's a challenge for them. This is why I mentioned the paid media, because that's how they're going to have to do it on the economy. They don't have to kind of win like by 20 points on the economy. They just have to like call it a draw plus, right? And have people feel like there's a baseline of, and it's not just about accomplishments. It's about like, are you fighting

for me? It's how voters feel. And that is what I think they're trying to tap into. Why do you think they trust Trump then over Biden? Why? I have no earthly clue, honestly. Anybody have one? Yeah. What do you guys think? I mean, I would say like pre-COVID, Trump was getting pretty high marks in the economy. Now, I would say like pre-COVID, Trump was getting pretty high marks in the economy. Now, some of that was because, you know, huge deficits and tax cuts that were sort of fueling that growth.

But I think if you go to February 2020, he was getting really high marks and unemployment was really, really low. And I think... It stuck with him. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, that makes sense. Stuck with him. All right, one final alleged weakness that Republicans can't stop talking about, Hunter Biden, the president's son has been indicted on gun charges.

He just did the arrest for allegedly leaking his information. So far, voters don't seem to care that much. Will the president be held responsible for the sins of his son, Alex? This is just such a fascinating dynamic because if you know anything about Joe Biden, you have to understand that the relationship with Hunter is that Hunter is the only living person

from that accident in 1972 that killed his wife, his daughter, and then obviously his son, Beau, who was also in the car, died in 2015. So you have to understand that Joe Biden is clinging to his son and wakes up every day scared that his son's going to relapse. And that's why when the White House, and I'm sure, you know, Jen had to do this dance behind

the podium, you know, how do you do the politically right thing, but in a way that is not going to affect Hunter in a negative way? And it is not an enviable position, especially now that, you know, Hunter has changed his counsel from someone that was sort of blessed by the White House to the very combative Abby Lowell, which is why he's suing the IRS and suing other people. And that means that Hunter is going to be in the headlines more. But, you know, Hunter was always sort of more of a pugnacious of the two brothers. And I think after two years of, you know, having your father's political enemies mine the worst moments of your life to humiliate you, I think this is going to be a really interesting thing for the next 16 months, because I don't think it's going away. Would anybody else have a different take? Franklin? No, I think the danger is, again, that this just muddies things in voters' minds.

That part of what we were talking about, gerontocracy, earlier, is the way in which everybody kind of gets lumped together in this blob of power. And it's corrupted power. That Hunter got the sweetheart deal plea because he's a part of this connected family. The reason he made all these millions of dollars is that he's part of a connected family, you know, whatever the merits of that. And there are legitimately some merits to that case. They're going to end up sticking in people's minds. And, you know, it's incumbent on media, I think, and also the Biden campaign to be able to describe the relative problems with having a scuzzy son who profits off kleptocracy and a president who tried to subvert democracy in a systematic, nearly successful sort of way. Hunter, of course, is a go ahead, Jen. I was going to say, I mean, you haven't seen this done yet, and it's hard for Biden to do this.

I don't think he will. yet. And it's hard for Biden to do this. I don't think he will. But you have seen some of the oversight members in the House do this, which is be like, OK, Hunter Biden, the justice system is going through its process and they don't kind of overly defend it. Right. And then they say, but wait a second, that guy dealt with a very public drug addiction. He wrote a book about it. But Jared Kushner made billions of dollars and actually worked in the White House. Now, I don't think that solves. I agree with Frank entirely. And you hear this.

You see this in the polls where there's only there's not a huge gap between the percentage of people who think Donald Trump is corrupt versus Joe Biden. That's a problem. That's insane. But like, that is what that is. But I do think if this continues, especially with the impeachment stuff, that there's going to be more aggressive pushback from some of the people on the Hill who are going to make that argument. So speaking of that, Hunter is a big part of the House impeachment inquiry that Speaker McCarthy announced last week after saying he would not move forward without a full House vote. Well,

there you go, Kevin. Let's run down the impeachment. Instead, what do voters make of these impeachment proceedings? Talk about what's concerning. Getting on the phone with Hunter's business contacts was obviously not a good look. Well, I haven't been out there since the impeachment stuff has been kicked off. I can tell you what I used to hear, which is like among Republicans, I mean, if you specifically go to kind of a Trump crowd, they have been clamoring for this since the day after the midterms. I mean, there has been pressure. I mean, I was in South Carolina, where Trump had people boo Mitch McConnell,

and then talk go through House members to say which ones are being strong enough for him, and specifically talk about impeachment. They are at this point, because of the political pressure that's come from the right to really push them there. I don't think basically anybody, I kind of understand him for regular voters in here, because I'm like, I'm, you know, this is a helpful thing about not being in DC and stuff like I only barely know what they're trying to impeach him about. Like, I can't, like, really keep a track of it. There's not a lot of evidence, according to Ken Buck. It's like the politics pressure and like, you're trying to loop in Hunter, blah, blah, blah, blah. The thing I would say that we haven't talked about here is I think the biggest legal proceeding that

will matter next year is whether or not Donald Trump is in jail and whether people see the election as kind of a referendum on his treatment legally. And so I think that Hunter will get wrapped into that. I think we will kind of be a whataboutism for people who want to excuse Donald Trump. But I just don't think this is going to be a game that's won on facts. People know what Donald Trump did. I mean, there's not even a question when people like you talk to people about the things that he is accused of, people don't even defend him as innocent, right? I think the reasons we get those corruption numbers that are similar between Trump and Biden

are somewhat because of the two men involved. But really, I just think there is an overwhelming feeling that the people, I keep going back to a system point, that there was an overwhelming feeling that the system produces people who inherently are doing this stuff. Yeah, he's just like everybody else. Whether it's one family or another, it's that the fact that both families are doing it, that's the thing that sets in. So Biden left off the proceedings, basically wishing Republicans good luck with a grin. Alex internally is the administration worried Republicans are vowing to subpoena Hunter. I don't know how that's going to play across people's TV and phone screens.

Yeah, I mean, I would say the one person that probably is a little bit worried, but only because of how it affects Hunter is the president himself, because this is going to be very taxing. And, you know, it's, it is sort of stunning that Hunter Biden is now going to be at the center of two impeachments, because in some ways, you know, the Hunter's work was at the center of the first Trump impeachment. All right. So very quickly, I want to clear into a Republican impeachment hurt Biden or hurt Republicans because it will backfire. Franklin first, then instead, then Alex and Jen.

Kevin McCarthy didn't want to do this. And I think he probably understands that the risk of overreach and this thing backfiring in the end is totally unnecessary, given that Hunter Biden will actually be on trial. Instead? Neutral. It won't matter. Alex? At the moment, I think it will rebound to Biden's benefit, but with the caveat that

Biden made a lot of blanket denials about what he knew about Hunter's businesses. So if they find anything. Yes, exactly. But at the moment, I think this rebounds to their benefit. Okay, Jen? Yeah, I think a slight potential benefit to Biden, but not a lot, primarily because it could help with this issue we've been talking about, which is kind of the energy and enthusiasm because nobody likes their guy or gal to be under attack.

And it will feel that way. So it could bring some Democrats who've been a little like, wow, home. Yeah, that's true. So far, we've been talking about the Biden Trump matchup. It's inevitable. But there is a world in which it's not a Biden-Trump matchup. Walk us through the scenarios of being run down at these Georgetown dinner parties. There are three of them, at least. I'll read them first, so we can quibble over what's a pipe dream, what's possible. Trump

conviction means he's not a viable candidate. Two, third-party candidate from no labels, etc. Three, theory of Biden pulling out late prompting a late primary. Let's start with you instead. Oh, I mean, I think that what was the first one? I'm sorry. Trump charges mean he's not a viable candidate. He gets convicted. I think we've seen a year that has I don't know why I don't know what the electoral evidence for that at least among Republicans. That's not true. Like it's horrible for him among independents and swing voters and blah, blah, blah, but not a viable candidate. I think structural polarization means that just if Republicans don't give him up, then I can't see that being true. And they've shown no signs of willingness to do that.

Franklin? I think that the most likely pipe dream is that there's a third party candidate of some sort. I mean, the caveat being that Joe Manchin still caucuses with the Democratic Party, and he could have very easily joined Kyrsten Sinema as caucusing as an independent. I think that the Joe Biden not running thing is exceedingly unlikely, but I could see a scenario where if you had two months of catastrophic polling, the amount of freak out within Democratic elites, which hasn't really freaked out to this stage, could be plausible and could force an issue of some sort.

Alex? In terms of Joe Biden not running, I mean, the Georgetown set certainly thinks if he has a health scare or if he has a really bad fall, something like that could force the issue. And then I've even seen, you know, some of these Georgetown parties literally been like, well, if he has that episode in December, what are the filing deadlines versus if it has an April, and then there's a brokered convention. There's a break a hip theory. Go ahead. Go ahead. There is. And then it's like the date that that happens matters. That being said, I don't see Joe Biden has any indication.

In fact, all these theories make him more set to run. Jen, you've got a comment on this slate. Yeah. Look, first of all, if you ask him, he'll say, I'm black Irish. I could be hit by a car tomorrow and then there'd be a different nominee. I mean, right. It's like not quite the hip theory, but like it's a little dark, but he does say that kind of thing privately all the time. The third party thing feels like who knows, but yeah, I mean, they haven't won an electoral vote in decades ever. I don't even know. So, but could people still run? Could, could RFK Jr. still run as an independent? For sure. Why wouldn't he? He's being

funded by who knows who. And like, there's no, he's not disincentivized what was the third one trump goes to jail oh i mean trump going to jail before the election feels quick um by any legal expert i've talked to also the 14th amendment thing which i know we've all talked about a lot feels also like the supreme court could do it quickly, but the Supreme Court seems unlikely to rule in the way that, you know, people who'd want him to be ruled ineligible would want. So, go ahead, Justin. If the succession plan was clear, then these scenarios would be clear. But there's not universal agreement around the vice president as a person who can

lead the whole party. And so all of a sudden, like, so I think the biggest thing that keeps Joe Biden in that space, no matter what happens, is the chaos that will be sure to come after. So like, that's independent of him. That's true. Now, the Georgetown set thinks that the vice president is incredibly weak, cannot run for president, has no support in the party. That is not true. Would it be a competitive primary? Potentially. I don't know.

It's an interesting question. If it were late in the process. But I think the notion that people in the country are discussing the weakness of the vice president is false. I also think- I'm not saying that. I guess I'm saying that there's not an agreement enough or it won't be a competitive primary. It would at minimum be chaos.

I'm not saying you're saying that at all. I didn't mean to imply that. I'm saying there is a convo at dinner parties about that. And so I think the vice president's support in the party is undervalued by that dinner party set. But you know, what would happen?

Other people running? I mean, that's a whole big question. Yeah. All right. Franklin, I'm going to get to that in a second. Your new book is critical of Vice President Harris. Talk about the critiques. And how do people respond when people say that sort of critiques reflect sexist and race expectations? I mean, I think my book is not, I mean, the vice presidency is the toughest job in America. It's the premise for a comic show on HBO. I think that every vice president has like been in some version of the predicament that she's in. part in various ways, but I think it's actually relatively empathetic to her in that I think that she and Joe Biden are actually very similar figures in certain sorts of ways, that they have their own versions of different insecurities that make their public presentations kind of add up to

less than what people see in private. And so if you talk to people, I asked everybody about her presence in meetings and how she actually does the job of vice president, and the reviews are all very strong, but she has struggled to come up with a political identity. And I think that the way she talks in public when she's answering questions, you could see her kind of self-editing in a sort of way in which she isn't able to kind of be her authentic self or isn't able to communicate as effectively as she's, you know, she's clearly capable of. I said, you talked to voters, how do they feel about the vice president, if they think about her at all?

Yeah, I hear more than I think people would expect. I think that you don't hear about vice presidents usually. I don't, but I think that the questions around Biden and age oftentimes have like a follow-up question down the line. Now you will get her. Now we'll get her. And so I don't think that's just Republicans. I think that's Democrats. I think that's, I don't think that that is like, you know, some fatal political flaw. I think that, you know, to the point about the role, there is a way that you can step out. I think this summer and kind of next year will be a moment for her to do that type of stuff. But I mean, we're saying dinner party crowd, but this is really the big money donor crowd. This is really the people who drive a lot of the shadow primary. These are really

people who have a lot of influence on the top reaches of the party, and they don't like her. They're important. And so it's like not actually that complicated. The people who run the biggest sets of money that lead people to run for president don't think she's good enough. And so I'm saying that is the thing that's happening right now. And so I actually think she has a better chance out in the country for sure than among that crowd. And I think that that is a really undervalued thing. But I don't think we should minimize those people to the point of acting like they're irrelevant. Because unfortunately, or fortunately, they are. Go ahead, Jen. No, you're totally right. I mean, it is the dinner party crowd, but those people are the people who are funding,

supporting, giving to super PACs. If Biden is elected and she runs after him, she'll need that group of people. They're very influential. I just mean that shouldn't speak for how the people in the country are, right? And sometimes it gets translated that way. That's not accurate, at least from what I've seen in polling, talking to people, what have you.

But yeah, that is a big problem for her. Now, when she goes to college campuses, people love her and they're super excited. And now that stuff is not breaking through. There's a bit of a lag. There's some early administration stuff she's still recovering from. But yeah, she's got more of an elite problem, I think, than she does a necessarily a grassroots problem from how I've seen it. But right, Alex, is there enthusiasm

to bring her out in the White House, as I said, since donors say don't love the VP? Well, I mean, the White House basically realizes it's a problem they have to fix, which is why you saw Kamala Harris go to that big donor retreat in Chicago last week to help shore up this problem. Because replacing the first, like, woman of color as the vice president would potentially be a disaster. But donors, they want Harrod replaced. I mean, you hear them talk about it openly to reporters. But the White House knows that because Vice President Harris is going to be a subject of Republican attacks, you're already seeing Nikki Haley do this. You know, I imagine the Republican

argument is a vote for Biden is a vote for Kamala Harris. And if that's going to be the case, you need to get her numbers, at least where Biden's are. Her numbers are always a little two or three points below his. And I think you're going to see them put her out there in order to boost those numbers. Okay, given the age rallies here, if it is a Trump Biden matchup, how much will it turn on a VP contest? For example, Kamala Harris versus Ramaswamy or Nikki Haley? As said, Harris has to improve. Okay, I think Harris has to either grassroots donors, they have to like her more come this time next year. Franklin, it seems exceedingly unlikely to me that it'll actually have any sort of decisive role in the race. Alex? I think Vice President Harris matters more than whoever the

Republican Vice President is, but I will sort of split the baby and say that it won't matter that much. Jen? Yeah, I don't think it matters that much. More 2028 question. Right. Okay. Wow. Hunter doesn't matter. All right. Last question. Two. Okay. Wow. I'm a hunter. It doesn't matter. All right. Last question. Two sentences each. Long term, what is the implication of this conversation about age, competence, and deflated enthusiasm of two old white dudes running for president? And who do you think the future of the Democratic Party is?

One person. Each of you. One person. One person. You get to think longer, Jen. Alex, you start. Dark Horse is Mark Kelly for Democrats. And I think you're going to see a lot of young people run for president in 2028. Okay, not another old white guy, but that is another white guy. He's very charming. Franklin, can I just be contrarian about one thing, which is that I think there is a flip side to all this

conversation about gerontocracy, that power is something that sometimes it needs to take some experience to wield, and that you look at the kind of the troika of Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden, what they were able to accomplish, or Biden's management of the Ukraine war, and there is actually value that comes with having been around the block. It's the old Ronald Reagan line. I'm not going to let his youth and experience. Yeah. So I just wanted to make sure that that was injected into this conversation.

I mean, I happen to think that your diagnosis of, you're pointing towards Gretchen Whitmer. I mean, she seems like somebody who in the very short term has major, major upset. I will have to say I saw Nancy Pelosi last night at a special party. And she's as sharp as a fucking tack. I wouldn't turn my back on her for four seconds. Ested and then Jen. I guess I'd say I think all of those names would be true if there was a primary right now.

I think in six years from now, the landscape is going to look really different no matter who wins. And I think it'll be so I think the Democrats get their version of a Trump like someone from outside blow it all up. Any name? No, I'm just saying like it'll be a random. It'll be I would say celebrity. I'll take a I'll take like someone with name recognition. Taylor Swift. Anything ideologically. Taylor Swift. Yeah. celebrity. I'll take someone with name recognition. Taylor Swift. Anything ideologically.

Taylor Swift. Yeah, yeah. I'll take Taylor Swift over half the members of the House. Okay. Whitmer's already been mentioned. Newsom gets a lot of attention. So does Westmore. So I'm going to say Josh Shapiro, who people don't talk about a lot, but is kind of an

under-focused on future star. I think it's going to be a governor. But I also think Ested's point is right. We have no idea. It's all about a moment in time. But I think governors, I think, are the next stage of the stars. You guys, I really appreciate it. I know it's hard to do with four people, but you guys were fantastic and substantive, and I truly appreciate it. What an interesting conversation. and I truly appreciate it. What an interesting conversation.

Wow, the future is probably not female and the future is very white, it seems. Yeah, I guess so, yeah. The only person that was not white was an aside about Wes Moore. The only woman name was Whitmer and then you're throwing in Taylor Swift. Kara, you're a Swifty with a pipe dream. I'm just saying.

She could bring us all together. Taylor Swift is an economic engine. She is. That's correct. That's right. She knows how to run things. So that's all I'm saying. I appreciated Franklin's defense of the gerontocracy when he said, you know, we need experience

and age might help you. But we don't know the counterfactual. Like, sure, Schumer, Pelosi, and Biden did well, but could three young politicos have done well? I don't know. Experience is important. It is. You get better at things, you do. It's the question of when you then quit and pass on, you know, when you train people up. I know Pelosi's spending a lot of time with Jeffries sort of helping him figure out how to run things. And that's a good thing. That's always a good thing. Yeah. I mean, some countries have up and out ages for retirement and also for politicians.

But I think then you could also have a test, like driver's license test, right, that people have said this. No, no, no. You know, you could be like, can you still run a mile in heels? And Nancy Pelosi would still be in the house. I saw her the other night. She's just fine. She's just fine. She saw her at one of these Georgetown dinner parties that we were talking about.

No, it was a book party for Walter Isaacson. Oh, it was a book party. Yeah, yeah. But Christian did ask me to explain what these Georgetown dinner parties that we were talking about. No, it was a book party for Walter Isaacson. Oh, it was a book party. Yeah. But Christian did ask me to explain what a Georgetown dinner party is. I went to one this week at Sally Quinn's house. It's a party of all the regulars. I don't know what to say. There is an elite.

There is, you know, the right always goes on about it. It does actually exist. Although there's a lot of, you know, conservatives at these things too. And they'd show up and pretend they hate everyone publicly and then they're right in there drinking up the whiskey of various and sundry people. They're just parties and there's a lot of chatter. It's always about political gossip, journalistic gossip, or just gossip. Yeah. Things that are. I mean, I went to one of them this week. They don't just happen in Georgetown. They happen everywhere, in New York City, et cetera.

But the Georgetown is a thing. Yeah. It's been going on forever. And, you know, you're in the nation's capital. You're going to have a permanent floating class of commentators and politicians. People in the know and people who appear to be in the know. I mean, I find them useful. I find out a lot of stuff at these things.

I go to them because I do. I always learn something fresh and new. The scoops are flowing with the wine and the courses. I told Amanda, she goes, why do you like to go to these? You're not really a party person. And I said, they're a high asset territory. Like target rich environment. Target rich environment.

That's what I call them. Yeah. All right, assassin. But I'm so happy that Estad came on because he really pulled us out of it. I appreciated when he said, you know, I'm out here talking to voters. I'm not just at these parties. Right. He kind of gave a very clear interpretation of how voters feel.

I think he kept saying they were frustrated with the system, dissatisfied. They are. I think they're more interested in other issues. the system dissatisfied. They are. I think they're more interested in other issues, their kids, crime, safety, education, you know, anywhere you go, whether you're in Los Angeles, the cities, urban areas, suburban areas, rural areas, a lot, we have a lot more in common on those issues. And they, this sort of swirl of topics like John Fetterman's shorts is really not of interest to most people. They don't care. Yeah, but the age of government is of interest to most people. I still argue that it's not as high up as you.

I think they mostly are like, who can get it done on crime, on safety, on getting me more salary and stuff like that. Yeah, I think that is a conversation that happens and you hear that. But I also think there's a big conversation about like, government look like us does government feel like us is this the is this the government that's going to deliver our future and that is yeah sure salary you know policing of neighborhoods etc is are important issues but it's just a kind of a disenchantment with government that is happening across the country it is but that but that's been forever. It's just more and more because we have more and more, but I do think we're getting sort of distracted by all

kinds of stupid issues. I think people are really frustrated with the options that are presented. And I really liked Ested's point regarding representation, that post-Obama Democrats seem to think they can just representation their way into minority votes. They think they put the right people in the right positions. Then people should just be grateful and vote for them. And I think people want a voice. They want to have impact. They don't just want one position or a photograph. By the way, the point that he was making about Kamala Harris not being liked by donors, why do you think of that? I don't know. I don't know. We'll see. If she gets some leverage, they'll like her. If they don't, donors, they come and go and they change. Like, look what they've done to Ron DeSantis. He was their favorite, and now he's not.

But you know her. You know her. I do. Why do you think she's not translating to voters or to donors? I don't necessarily think that's true. You know, I think things become these sort of self-fulfilling prophecies. I think the fact that she's a woman, I think she's a woman of color. I think she can sometimes be stiff, sure.

Yeah, but, you know, look at Ron DeSantis comparatively. I mean, come on. He's really, really charmless and awkward. And then everybody thought the impeachment would actually benefit Biden, except for Estad. Maybe. I don't know. I don't think people are paying attention to any of this stuff, that stuff, all this Washington theatrics. I don't.

Yeah, my fear is that people are paying attention and the Washington dinner parties are not paying attention and it's a little bit like 2016. I do not think they're paying attention. Well, I have a summary of the whole conversation. A headline. Cakewalk for Biden if perpwalk for Trump. Sure, yeah. Prison. Being president from prison is a problem, I think, for many people. What do you think is going to happen? I have no idea. Come on, make a prediction. No, I don't. I think Biden will be president again.

You think so? Yep. Okay, let's see. Want to read us out? Yes. Today's show was produced by Naeem Araza, Christian Castro-Rossell, Megan Cunane, and Megan Burney. Special thanks to Kate Gallagher. Our engineers are Fernando Arruda and Rick Kwan.

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