On with Kara Swisher - Is the Fight Over Abortion Rights Enough to Beat Trump? with Shefali Luthra, Sarah McCammon and Mary Jo Pitzl

Episode Date: April 22, 2024

Despite a recent uptick, President Biden’s approval rating and his poll numbers against Donald Trump are far from stellar. And with inflation remaining stubbornly high and gas prices moving up, Biden and his party seem eager to focus voters on abortion rights — and Republicans in Arizona and Florida have given him plenty of material to work with.  To understand how the abortion issue might play out in November — and how the Dobbs decision is already affecting millions of people across the country, even in states without bans — we turn to three experts: Shefali Luthra covers abortion for The 19th, and her book, “Undue Burden, Life and Death Decisions in Post Roe America,” comes out in May; Sarah McCammon is a national political correspondent for NPR and the co-host of the NPR Politics Podcast. Her book, “Exvangelicals: Loving, Living and Leaving the White Evangelical Church,” came out in March; and Mary Jo Pitzl is a senior state government reporter for the Arizona Republic who’s been reporting in Arizona for decades. She’s also the host of The Gaggle, an Arizona politics podcast. Questions? Comments? Email us at [e-mail] or find Kara on Instagram/Threads as @karaswisher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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set, grow. Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today. Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial. ConstantContact.ca Hi, everyone. From New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. This is On with Kara Swisher, and I'm Kara Swisher. Today, we're talking about abortion politics, arguably the third rail of American society. Few issues inspire as much passion or heated rhetoric, and even fewer have the potential to swing both the presidential election and races up and down the to swing both the presidential election and races

up and down the ballot all across the country. And right now, no state in America illustrates just how off the rails our abortion politics have gone better than Arizona. Their state Supreme Court recently revived an 1864 abortion ban that's so draconian that even election-denying, MAGA-loving former candidate for governor and current candidate for Senate, Carrie Lake, is doing her best to disavow it. Carrie, it's not working. But while the electoral implications of our tortured abortion politics are potentially massive and important to understand, as we get closer to the two-year anniversary of the Dobbs ruling, it's important to look at how the overturning of Roe v. Wade is affecting health care across this country, even in states that have protected abortion access. So in order

to have a smart, nuanced conversation, imagine that, I've invited three veteran journalists on the podcast. Shefali Luthra has been covering health care for the last decade. She's currently on the abortion beat for the 19th, and her book, Undue Burden, Life and Death Decisions in Post-Roe America, comes out in May. Sarah McCammon is a national political correspondent for NPR and the co-host of the NPR Politics Podcast. Her reporting focuses on what divides us, and not just at NPR. In other words, issues like abortion and religion. She's the author of Exvangelicals, Loving, Living, and Leaving the White Evangelical Church. And Mary Jo Pitzel

is a senior state government reporter for the Arizona Republic and the host of The Gaggle, an Arizona politics podcast. She's been reporting from Arizona for decades and is a must-read for anyone interested in Arizona politics. Our question today comes from Sarah Longwell, a Republican strategist, founder of Republican Voters Against Trump, publisher of The Bulwark, and host of The Focus Group podcast. I'll talk with Shefali, Sarah, and Mary Jo after a quick break. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see?

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It's an AI-powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you. Tells you which leads are worth knowing. And makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. The Capital Ideas Podcast now features a series hosted by Capital Group CEO, Mike Gitlin. Through the words and experiences

of investment professionals, you'll discover what differentiates their investment approach, what learnings have shifted their career trajectories, and how do they find their next great idea. Invest 30 minutes in an episode today. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Published by Capital Client Group, Inc. Shefali, Sarah, and Mary Jo, thanks for joining me today. We've got a lot of knowledge on this call. A health reporter who covers abortion, a national politics reporter who focuses on divisive issues like abortion,

and a political reporter with decades of experience in Arizona. Ground zero right now for the abortion debate. We're going to start by talking about the practical implications of Dobbs. Then we'll zoom into Arizona and see how things are playing out there, and we'll end by discussing how the abortion issue is affecting national politics, because it certainly is, or maybe it's not. Some people don't agree. Sarah, there were approximately 1,025,000 abortions in the U.S. last year,

roughly a 10% increase over 2020. That's probably not what anti-abortion activists had in mind when they pushed overturn Roe. Talk about what explains the increase in abortions despite reduced access across much of the South and about half the country, really. Yeah, that data was so fascinating and I think counterintuitive for a lot of people because in about half the country, abortion is significantly restricted and there are a lot of states where it's not available at all. You know, there are probably a couple of reasons for that.

For one thing, there's been a lot of coverage of how people can get access now and get around, not necessarily get around those laws, but find a way to get access despite those laws. That often includes traveling. We've seen abortion funds really increase their activism and fundraising to try to get people from one state to another. And, of course, you can't talk about access without talking about the abortion pill, which is now the most common way that people in the United States get abortions. More than half of abortions are with medication abortion, not in a clinic. And, you know, medication is a lot harder to regulate and restrict, although anti-abortion activists are really trying. So, Shefali, you talked to countless people who are trying to

access abortion care just before and then after the Dobbs decision for your book, Undue Burden, which is out in May. Explain how Dobbs has upended healthcare access, not only in states with abortion restrictions, but even in states that have expanded abortion rights. It's really tremendous what people are going through right now in their efforts to access abortion. Sarah mentioned the abortion pill and travel. And when I speak to people before the Dobbs decision and after, they are traveling tremendous distances to access care. I have met people who have traveled from Texas to New Mexico, Texas to California. Florida, which has a six-week ban that will take effect on

May 1st, has been one of the homes to the largest increases of abortion in the country. And that's because it was until very recently, and will be for just a little bit more time, the most permissive state in the South. And what that tells us is that people are going to tremendous lengths to access care. They are putting intense strains on these abortion clinics that haven't ever been very well resourced. And even now to this day, you know, they are under immense pressure. They face threats of violence. They see weeks-long wait times for a very time-sensitive medical need. And what it tells us is that access to care is just much, much, much more difficult whether you live in a state with an abortion ban or without.

And when laws like Florida's and Arizona's take effect, it will only become more so. Sarah, one of the ironies of Dobbs is that state-level abortion bans might actually increase the number of abortions that occur at later gestational stages. The research is still early, but if you want to get an abortion in a state with a ban, you have to take time off work, save money to pay for travel and a hotel, which means you have to delay the abortion. Talk about this dynamic and how it affects people who end up getting abortions later than they otherwise would have. I think it's interesting for a couple of reasons. I mean, one, if you look at polling on American public opinion on abortion, most Americans support access in some situations and support some restrictions. And the later you go into pregnancy, the more people oppose abortion. So it is, there is an

irony there that people are actually being pushed to a later stage of pregnancy by these laws. Now, for the people who experience those delays, it can increase the cost. The farther along a person is in a pregnancy, the more expensive and complex the procedure will be, not to mention the difficulties of getting there. I've talked to abortion providers in states like Illinois that have talked about having women with young children that they don't have childcare for struggling to try to get not just the time off of work and not just the money together to pay for the procedure and to travel to come get the procedure from another state, but also child care. So some of them talked to me a couple years ago about adding, you know, playrooms, waiting rooms where families could spend time if they had no

other option. So it just, it complicates the whole process. And, you know, while abortion is on the whole a very safe procedure, it's safer earlier in pregnancy for the patient. So that's another factor. So Shefali, to Sarah's point about how certain restrictions pull well, European countries like Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, and Spain all restrict access to abortion at 14 weeks or earlier, and they're generally considered more socially progressive than America. Talk about why the politics around abortion are so different here than in Europe.

What's important to note about restrictions like the ones we see in Europe is they actually function very differently as well from what we have in America. Part of that is because exceptions are much more open for the large part than they are here. I have talked to so many physicians, so many sexual violence experts, etc., who note that even when we have abortion bans that allow for an abortion past 14, 15 weeks because of rape or incest or medical need, it's very unworkable in practice because the requirements to qualify are just so strict and the penalties are so severe. And what we have here is just a very different dynamic around the politics of abortion. We've actually been cited in countries

like Italy, like Spain, like France, like Germany as a model for the anti-abortion movement. Many of them have looked to Dobbs and have looked to organizations based in Texas as an inspiration for if they want to become more restrictive on abortion, they should look to America and in particular the religious right in America, which has been very involved in a lot of the efforts to restrict access. Sarah, you mentioned earlier that most abortions in this country are medication abortions. In June, the Supreme Court will decide whether or not the FDA properly expanded access to mefipristone, one of the two drugs used for medical abortions. Talk about how this case got to the Supreme Court, because it was kind of a bit of a trick. And on a practical level, what happens if the Supreme Court rules against how it was brought expanded access. So what's really at issue in this Supreme Court case is access to abortion pills through the mail and through telehealth. The lawsuit was brought by a coalition

of anti-abortion groups that included some medical providers who are opposed to abortion rights. And they claim that they've been harmed by having to provide care to women who may be dealing with bleeding or other side effects of abortion pills. And their argument is that the FDA improperly approved mifepristone more than 20 years ago. And they've also objected to some subsequent changes from the Biden administration

that had eased access to the pill. You know, there was a long series of court battles and litigation, and it all kind of went back and forth through the legal system until ultimately ending up, as you say, before the Supreme Court. It's important to note, too, that this group strategically filed a lawsuit in Texas in a jurisdiction where they knew the case was very likely to come before a federal judge named Judge Kazmarek, who has a history of anti-abortion, conservative Christian right advocacy, and who was appointed by former President Trump. It did indeed come before him. He sided with them initially before the case, as I said, wound its way through the

legal system. So depending on where the court comes down, it could cut off access to abortion pills through telehealth. So I can speak to this as well. The ruling, as Sarah mentioned, hasn't taken effect yet. And it could force more providers to switch to a still effective, still safe, but less effective, less safe mechanism involving misoprostol only, the other medication used in a medication abortion. Yeah. So misoprostol is actually part of the typical, the most common protocol that's prescribed for medication abortion. So typically, mifeprostone is used in combination with misoprostol. That is the sort of gold standard. That's the protocol that was approved by the FDA more than two decades ago. However, misoprostol alone is an option. It's one that is endorsed by the FDA more than two decades ago. However, misoprostol alone is an option.

It's one that is endorsed by the World Health Organization. And essentially, that approach involves taking more misoprostol than you would if you were using mifepristone as well. But, you know, there are downsides to that approach. There can be more bleeding, more cramping. Often, the procedure, the experience is more painful and a little less predictable is what doctors have told me for the patient. All right, let's get to what's going to happen immediately in Arizona. Mary Jo, the 1864 law that imposes a near total ban on abortion hasn't come into effect yet. What's the current state of abortion access in Arizona right now and how easy or hard is it for someone to get an abortion there today? And at our Arizona legislature, Democrats are racing to try to repeal the 1864 law before it

becomes enforceable, because as some of them say, you know, people could die. This has very dire consequences. But ever since Dobbs, the Dobbs ruling, Arizona had to wrestle with two competing abortion laws. Is it a 15-week ban or is it this 1864 law where, you know, basically abortion at any stage is not allowed? And they settled on the 15-week law and all was sort of moving along on that until the Supreme Court ruling. And that has created just an incredible scramble in this state and a lot of confusion about what this will mean for being able to access abortion care after April 23rd. Speaking today, access is still available, especially in the metro areas. Planned Parenthood has said that it plans to keep its clinics open for a number of weeks. They have not specified how many weeks because there's a lot moving legally.

But access is also difficult in the non-urban parts of Arizona, which is, you know, most of the geography. I mean, if you're up on the Indian Reservation or one of the reservations, you are a long way away from care. If you're out in rural Arizona, it's very difficult to find a clinic without coming down to the Phoenix or the Tucson areas. So it's accessible for now in the urban areas, and we'll see how long that stands. What do they expect to happen? Will people stop doing them completely in four or five days, or when that's supposed to happen? It's very unclear from the abortion providers for how long they'll keep operating. But the 1864 law does say that if you aid in an abortion, you provide an abortion, the penalty is two to five

years in prison. And what we're hearing is providers are just not going to risk losing their livelihood and being incarcerated. When that might happen, we don't know. Who knows, unless they pass something. The Supreme Court ruling was an unwelcome surprise for most Republicans, kind of like the Alabama Supreme Court ruling on in vitro fertilization. like the Alabama Supreme Court ruling on in vitro fertilization. Donald Trump explicitly says he wants the law repealed, and there are reports that Kerry Lake, who's running for Senate, is privately telling state Republican lawmakers the same.

We're recording this on Wednesday the 17th. The Republicans just killed the bill to do just that. Mary Jo, what is happening there? Because there's all kinds of different messaging happening or what they actually think. And do you expect to see the 1864 law and the books come November, or can they change this? You know, after the November election, the way things are going right now, the 1864 law will probably be nullified because there is a citizen initiative that is very popular that's heading towards the ballot. It's not there yet, has not qualified, but it looks in good shape to do so, that would enshrine the right to abortion

in the Arizona Constitution. That seems for people who support the pro-life movement, I mean, sorry, the pro-choice movement, that seems to be the best backstop available to get this into the Constitution and out of the hands of lawmakers. But there's a lot of time between now and November, and our legislature just today twice rejected efforts to repeal the 1864 law. Basically, they defended it. Every Republican except one in the Arizona House. These attempts will probably happen on a weekly basis. I don't know how long they'll play this out. There is a belief that there will be a few Republicans who will come over and join with Democrats to ultimately repeal this bill.

But they didn't show up today. Why? Explain the politics of it. Explain what's happening there. Well, there's this thing called the elections, which has got everybody scared, and primary elections, where a Republican could feel vulnerable if they supported a repeal, even though we understand that it is, you know, most people, even people who favor pro-life, Even though we understand that it is, you know, most people, even people who favor pro-life, think that that law is a little too strict. Where is Carrie Lake except on possibly Zoloft at this moment? What is happening with her?

Speaking of drugs. She recorded a very unusual video that I didn't, sounded like she was pro-choice in it. This total ban on abortion that the Arizona Supreme Court just ruled on is out of line with where the people of this state are. The issue is less about banning abortion and more about saving babies. I agree with President Trump. This is such a personal and private issue. I chose life, but I'm not every woman. I want to make sure that every woman who finds herself pregnant has more choices so that she can make that choice that I made. Well, Carrie Lake has done a nice little flip-flop on this when she was running for governor, a post that she still contends that she's entitled to. She was definitely in support of this total abortion ban or near total ban.

But after the court ruling, she said, well, you know, no, we've got to come more to the middle. And she's trying to have it both ways. And her opponents are not letting her get away with that. So, Sarah, when you look at someone like Carrie Lake, how does she thread the needle in the same thing with Donald Trump. Well, I think it's been interesting to see both Carrie Lake and Donald Trump sort of pivot on their abortion messaging. And I think it's a reflection of the larger challenge the Republican Party is facing this November because of the backlash to the Dobbs decision that we've seen from voters in the past couple of years. You know, both Lake, when it comes to talking about the Arizona law and former President Trump on the topic of abortion generally, have been kind of all over the place at times. And

again, this is, I think, because Republicans recognize that this doesn't appear to be a winning issue for them. These candidates need to appeal to the base. They need to turn out their base voters, many of whom would like to see more restrictions on abortion. But they have to do that without scaring off the swing voters that they're going to need in order to win elections. So, Shefali, take a step back. What's the lesson for the rest of the country? Because these religious rights tactics on abortion tell us this could be disastrous in that regard? Because you've got some very sincerely held beliefs by many religious conservatives in Arizona, for example,

and throughout the country, but not so much for the GOP politicians who want to get reelected. There's a real lesson that we can learn, I think, from having seen the 15-week quote-unquote moderate compromises in Arizona and Florida fall apart pretty soon after each other. And what it tells us is exactly what Mary Jo was getting at, which is that there actually isn't a large enough constituency for something like this. The anti-abortion movement is not happy with a 15-week ban because most abortions take place before 15 weeks. What they want is what we have in states like Texas, like Oklahoma, like Idaho, like Mississippi and Alabama, where abortion is almost entirely outlawed.

And those have been incredibly dangerous laws for patients. We have seen pregnant people almost die because they can't access medical care for wanted pregnancies. We have seen people experience extreme, extreme misery and pain trying to find the money, find the childcare that Sarah mentioned, take the time off work, hide from their families, what they are doing, where they are going. Many of them are afraid, even though there is no law prohibiting them from leaving the state, they still fear that what they are doing is illegal and that if someone found out, they could come after them. And that climate of fear, of uncertainty about your own rights, about not knowing whether you have bodily autonomy, I think that's really important for us to sit with for a moment because it is the kind of thing that could happen in other states as well if we see

what has happened in Arizona and in Florida prove to be a trend that there really isn't a middle ground and that instead the only direction to move when you have abortion bans, when you have empowered the anti-abortion movement, is toward much more limiting restrictions. So Mary Jo, if Republicans manage to roll this law back at some point or join with Democrats in doing so sooner than later, will that put the issue to rest? Or what's the next step? Because of what she's just saying is there even 15-week abortions do fall apart, even

if most Americans actually agree on that. Right. So especially if Democrats with maybe some Republican allies are successful in repealing the 1864 law, I do think it will turn more attention to what can you do to counteract this citizen initiative that's going to be coming at you on the ballot. And therefore, your best hope is to have, to fight the citizen initiative is to just argue that it goes too far. It's just too much. And we've got this perfectly fine 15-week ban on abortion, you know, pointing out most abortions happen before 15 weeks. So we need to have some level of restrictions.

I think that's where it goes next. But for the foreseeable future, we're going to have these probably weekly fights or attempts at the legislature to repeal. And at the end of the day, I think the balance still tips that they'll get a repeal, but no time soon. We'll be back in a minute. Support for this show comes from Grammarly. 88% of the work week is spent communicating, typing, talking, and going back and forth on topics until everyone is on the same page.

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LegalZoom is not a law firm and does not provide legal advice, except we're authorized through its subsidiary law firm, LZ Legal Services, LLC. All right, so let's talk about national politics now. Sarah, you recently published a memoir slash reportage, I guess, a book called Exvangelicals, I think I pronounced that right, which looks at the post-evangelical movement, adults that were raised evangelical and then left the fold. It's a bestseller, so congrats. If we look back, American evangelicals used to be in favor of abortion rights. In 1971, the Southern Baptist Convention passed a resolution calling for legal abortion, even after Roe v. Wade.

It was decided in 1973. They reaffirmed that position in 1974 and 76, and people don't realize that. And Jerry Falwell didn't preach against abortion until 1978. Talk about when it became this central issue for the religious right. So it became a central issue for the religious right really because of the work of the moral majority. The change happened around the time of the pivot from Jimmy Carter to Ronald Reagan. You know, Jimmy Carter wasn't evangelical. And that was kind of the moment when the shift started to happen.

Jerry Falwell Sr. and others worked to mobilize mostly white evangelical Christian voters around a range of issues. People think of abortion and abortion was certainly a big one. range of issues people think of abortion, and abortion was certainly a big one. But a lot of this arguably was kicked off by a fight between conservative Christian institutions, including Bob Jones University and others, over integration. There was a Supreme Court decision in the early 70s that essentially required these institutions to integrate if they wanted to retain their nonprofit tax status. Bob Jones University officials didn't want to do that and got in a fight with the IRS over it. And this was an issue that the moral majority and groups like it were able to begin to use to mobilize white

Christian voters around. Now, prior to this time, as you say, evangelicals, Southern Baptists had a much softer position on abortion. It was seen as more of a Catholic issue. But we have seen, you know, today we see that white evangelicals are the group, the religious group, that express the most opposition to abortion rights, even more than Roman Catholics. And what about ex-evangelicals? How do they look at abortion? As far as ex-evangelicals go, it's kind of a newer movement. It's a term that emerged really around the beginning of the Trump era as a lot of journalists, including myself, were writing stories about evangelicals

and their relationship to Trump. Of course, evangelicals are such a critical part of the Republican base. And, you know, the ex-evangelicals I've talked to, some of them feel like that label doesn't work for them for a lot of different reasons. It's not just about Trump. But generally, if you look at data on people who disaffiliate from religion in general, and this would, I think, include evangelicals, they're more progressive than not. But the challenge, I think, include evangelicals. They're more progressive than not, but the challenge, I think, for Democrats who might want to mobilize some of these people who are disaffiliating from religion in large numbers in this country is that they're much less politically engaged. You know, white evangelicals are a shrinking part of the population. White Christians are, in general, they used to be dominant and their numbers are declining, but they're very politically

engaged, and white evangelicals in particular are overwhelmingly supportive of Republicans and of Donald Trump. It doesn't appear that there's a corresponding political movement that mirrors that. Well, although I would have to say I have a lot of evangelical relatives, and the younger ones are much more progressive. I would almost call them progressive, you know, more than me in some cases. And they remain religious, which is interesting. They're largely focused on Jesus and the Jesus of tolerance, you know, that seems to be what I hear from them a lot. Yeah, it's interesting that, you know, I titled my book The Exvangelicals because I think it sort of encapsulates this idea of being part of something and then leaving it. But, you know, I talk to people who fit a range of descriptions, post-evangelical, former evangelical, progressive evangelical.

And I think you're right. Many of them feel that the current expression of the white evangelical political movement doesn't align with their values, including their religious values. And many of them cite things like the way their churches talk about women and LGBTQ people as a reason that that label doesn't work for them anymore. But they do stay with, they find churches, it's interesting, they remain religious, I would say. My relatives who are evangelical remain very religious. It's just a very different take, and it's certainly not conservative. I'm not sure what it is sometimes. Yes, I think some do and some don't.

And, you know, Pew has interesting data on the religious nuns, N-O-N-E-S, which would include ex-evangelicals in some cases. And that group, you know, generally is kind of averse to institutions, to churches, but not necessarily to spirituality or to belief in God. So, you know, I think it'll be interesting to see if anybody can kind of harness this big, big shift away from church that we're seeing with particularly the younger generations. Right, absolutely.

Shefali, the fight against abortion rights is part of a larger attack on bodily autonomy, as you noted, coming mainly from religious conservatives. In your book, you write about the connection between legal abortions and gender-affirming care for transgender people. Explain how the two issues are connected. They've got a panoply of issues they like to bring together in a similar way. There's so many ways that we can approach this question, and it's something that I think about a lot. I mean, the obvious one is that abortion and gender-affirming care, they are medical services. They are provided to people who are typically treated as unequal or as lesser than in a gender unequal society. very, very often, you could almost say the Venn diagram is a circle, are the ones that are also pushing restrictions on gender-affirming care. It feels like it's, in some ways, a very natural

sequel to continue to restrict access to reproductive health care at large and reproductive health care that allows people to deviate from a norm of gender expression. Other things that I have really been struck by in my reporting are the fact that a lot of abortion clinics also have been the ones that provided gender-affirming care. They've seen themselves under attack in multiple ways in that regard. I've spoken to clinic managers in Oklahoma who provided abortions until they couldn't anymore and then switched to gender-affirming care, knowing that any day coming, they would no longer be able to offer that service either. knowing that any day coming, they would no longer be able to offer that service either. On the flip side, I've spoken to abortion clinics who used to provide gender-affirming care and no longer have the bandwidth to do so because they have seen such a demand for abortions for Haitians coming from out of state.

And what that really underscores for me is there are legislative attacks. There are also other connections. And what it highlights is that when we limit access to reproductive health care in a system that was already so fragmented, so frail, so under attack for so long, it is just that much more difficult to provide any form of health care whatsoever. in Arizona, Mary Jo, with this, you know, as the pressure, because Arizona was the place people went. Is the same Venn diagram happening there with gender-affirming care for transgender people? Yeah, pretty much. I mean, our governor, our previous governor signed a bill two years ago that barred gender-affirming care for youth that allows, and that also bars transgender youth from participating in sports like at the high school level. And the last two years, we've seen just a flood of these sort of anti-trans bills that are not going to get very far. They're not getting very far

because our current governor is a Democrat and she vetoes the bills. But before that, they had pretty free reign. So, yeah, it's happening here and those laws have not been undone. So, they are still in place and that's forcing people out of state if they need that kind of care. So, every episode I ask an expert to send us a question. Today's comes from Sarah Longwell, a Republican pollster working to defeat Trump and the publisher of The Bulwark. Let's hear it. Hey, Cara, an esteemed panel. My question is this. A lot of Democrats think that abortion is going to be key to helping them win the election in 2024. key to helping them win the election in 2024. But when I do focus groups with swing voters, and voters really across the political spectrum, you know, when you ask them how things are going in the country or what they care about, they don't talk about abortion. They talk about inflation.

They talk about crime. They talk about immigration. And Donald Trump himself, you know, voters really do view him as sort of a social moderate. I mean, a lot of times when you ask these voters about Trump and abortion, they say something like, I'm sure he's paid for some, you know. And yet, when you bring up abortion, people still have enormous feelings about it. And it does seem to have a motivating quality. How do you think the abortion issue is going to play in 2024? How can Democrats make it the top salient issue when there's so many other issues internationally and domestically that voters are worried about? Sarah, why don't you take this one first? It's so interesting. I mean, I think the response to the ballot initiatives that we've seen so far

is an encouraging sign for Democrats, but only to a degree, because as Sarah just mentioned, there are lots of other issues on voters' minds. And the thing about a ballot initiative is that it isolates one issue, but that's not the way, of course, that presidential elections or Senate races or congressional races work. Voters are thinking

about lots of things. Anecdotally, when I've been on the campaign trail now, I was mostly covering the Republican primary, but the issue I heard about the most was immigration and the economy, which again, have historically been big issues for lots of voters. So the question is, is how much Democrats can harness this issue? Do voters care as much? Almost, you know, it'll be more than two years post-Dobbs. I think in the states that have these ballot initiatives, those may be particularly fertile soil for Democrats to push the issue. But, you know, to this point about Trump portraying himself or being seen by some voters as a social moderate, obviously, I think that was his intention by staking out this position of leaving it to the states. But I think it's really important not to forget that we don't know what a Trump administration would do without Roe v. Wade in place, right? Roe was overturned during the Biden administration as a result, of course, of Trump's three conservative Supreme Court justices. And whatever Trump himself may

want to do or believe, he will be under a lot of pressure from anti-abortion activists who are already working to try to put together a plan for another Trump administration, which will include conservative cabinet officials and agencies like the FDA and HHS and the Department of Justice who would have the power to push abortion restrictions through and cut off funding for organizations that provide abortion. So I really, you know, a lot will depend on, I think, the politics of the issue in Trump's mind, but we don't know what will be in Trump's mind or how much pressure he'll be under or who he'll be listening to if he is elected again. So, shall I follow this? As we were discussing, we've seen these abortion rights referendums win by 18 point margins in deep

red Kansas. Now there are ballot issues popping up, as we've noted. Democrats hope they'll increase voter turnout. As you travel the country, you've spoken to countless people about abortion, both in deep red and deep blue states. Were you surprised to find the support, or is Sarah right that it may not be there as strongly? I think she can't decide. I think that's really what she was saying. I think what Sarah's hitting on is something that has come up so often in my reporting, and there's a few threads that I want to highlight. And there's a few threads that I want to highlight. The one is that until the Dobbs decision, many people didn't think about abortion. Many patients I have spoken to, even post-Dobbs, didn't think about abortion until they had to just get everyone who you want to vote for you to experience firsthand what it means to no longer have abortion rights. a state like Florida, for instance, where they will have to convince a lot of independent voters and Republican voters who outnumber Democrats to come out in favor of a president whom they may not

be disposed to like simply because of abortion. And it is very easy for them to vote for the abortion ballot measure and still vote for Donald Trump. I do think that there is a responsibility on us as reporters to highlight the stakes because many voters aren't clear on what could happen in an administration that is staffed by people who are hostile to abortion and the pressure that Willie put on Donald Trump if he is reelected around leveraging the 19th century anti-obscenity Comstock Act to try and institute national abortion restrictions even without the Supreme Court taking any action. Right.

That's really tremendous. It's really important. We could spend an hour of that on this podcast. And it is something that could be really meaningful to voters, but we need to do a good job conveying that to them. Although it's hard to say what he could do when he hasn't done it. It's sort of like, you know, pre-crime, essentially. You know what I mean? You don't know what he's going to do. He doesn't even say he's not or is going to do it because it's just he'll wait until it's presented to him. But most likely is the point you're making. Correct?

Absolutely. question about this. You could make the case if Biden wins re-election, it'll be because of the abortion issue. And if Trump beats him, it'll be because of the immigration issue. Arizona is arguably at the center of both of these debates. Right now, which one do you think is going to drive more voters to the polls, per Sarah's question, if you had to guess? At this very moment, subject to change, though, is probably abortion, because if your choice is an almost total abortion ban with prison as a penalty for providers, I think that's just a bridge too far for many voters in the 21st century. And we will have the citizen initiative, you know, most likely on the ballot and a campaign that will keep reminding people about that.

And yes, I agree. We've got lots of other issues, the economy and immigration chief among them that will play into voters' decisions. But I do think that we're going to be hearing a lot about abortion for the next, you know, six and a half months until election day. And that could tip the balance. Certainly, it has a very strong possibility of tipping the balance in our long control, long, long time GOP control of our legislature. It might flip a couple of congressional seats. And, you know, I mean, Trump's against the, doesn't like the 1864 ban as well.

So I'm not quite sure how that would play up at the top of the ballot. But abortion will be high on people's minds along with immigration. But at this point, probably immigration would be a bit secondary. Secondary. And let me just ask the others that question, Shefali and then Sarah finish up on what would be the top issue right now from your perspective. I do think to Sarah's point, the issue that voters have consistently put at the top of their list of concerns is the economy, is inflation. That's really important. And it is something

important to highlight if you are campaigning for the presidency. But I don't think we can underestimate just how many more voters than before have said abortion is their top issue and how many of those voters are especially critical for Democrats if they hope to win this fall. Sarah, finish up. My feeling is that the answer may vary based on where the call themselves pro-life, a state like Arizona, it might be the top issue. You know, in another state where there's not an abortion ballot initiative or it hasn't been as salient of an issue for voters, it might be something else. It might be the economy. It might be immigration. And a lot of that is going to be up to the candidates and the parties to see how effectively they can message around these issues and what they put front and center in voters' minds. Thank you guys so much. It's a really important

issue. I think we'll see what happens when it happens, but I think everyone is watching Arizona across the country. And it's enlivened, certainly enlivened the debate about it, for sure. Anyway, thank you so much, all three of you. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah. Thank you for the invite. On with Kara Swisher is produced by Christian Castro-Russell, Kateri Yochum, and Megan Burney.

Special thanks to Andrea Lopez-Grizzato, Kate Gallagher, and Mary Mathis. Our engineers are Fernando Arruda and Rick Kwan. Our theme music is by Trackademics. If you're already following the show, we're here to tell you Carrie Lake is for abortion. If not, Carrie Lake is against abortion. We don't know where the flip-flopper stands, but go wherever you listen to podcasts, search for On with Kara Swisher

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