On with Kara Swisher - Jon Lovett Talks Trump, Biden & the Podcasting Biz

Episode Date: October 5, 2023

After Kara and Nayeema discuss the defenestration of Kevin McCarthy, we turn to podcaster and political savant Jon Lovett of Crooked Media fame. Kara and Jon share laughs as they talk about the podcast biz, unions, Trump and Biden’s chances in ‘24.  This conversation was taped live at the Code Conference on September 28, 2023. Questions or comments? Email us at [e-mail] or find us on social media. We’re on Instagram/Threads as @karaswisher and @nayeemaraza Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Claude Sonnet can generate code, help with writing, and reason through hard problems better than any model before. You can discover how Clalawed can transform your business at anthropic.com slash clawed. Hi, everyone from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. This is On with Kara Swisher, and I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Naima Raza. Our guest today is John Lovett, the former Obama speechwriter who hosts Pod Save America and Love It or Leave It. This was a low-key interview you did at Code history, and we have a very good rapport on stage. And so we thought it would just be a fun thing to talk about politics, about podcasting, a bunch of stuff, because we sort of have a lot in common. He's a really interesting podcaster, and obviously Crooked Media, for which he helped found, is a real pioneer in podcasting, especially around politics. It was good. It was a little amuse-bouche before Yoel Roth, I guess. Amuse-bouche. Yes. Crooked Media, by the way, is a genius name. He, Tommy Veeder,

and Jon Favreau. Jon Favreau, the speechwriter, not Jon Favreau, the actor, founded it. If you're not familiar, do check out their pods. They're fantastic. He's full of insights when it comes to podcasting and politics, and we thought it would be a fantastic follow-up conversation to our panel with Jen Psaki, Ested Herndon, Franklin Foer, and Alex Thompson. But he was a backup plan. there and then couldn't do it at the last minute. And so we were joking with John on stage about being the backup plan. He doesn't care. He doesn't care. I actually loved his response when Michelle Berg, our colleague, emailed him to see if he could join you at Code. He wrote back, I love Kara, and I love filling in for canceling mayors. Yeah, it's true. That would have been a very different interview, but John has surreal insight, so I was glad to talk to him.

The conversation was taped last Thursday, September 28th, just about a week ago, which is a lifetime, it seems, in today's Washington. Yeah, he was sort of signaling all the problems in the GOP, obviously, and they came to a head this week with the ouster of Kevin McCarthy. Yes. We need to talk about Kevin. No, we don't. Well, two things happened with Kevin McCarthy since this interview. interview first on Friday night, then House Speaker Kevin McCarthy surprised everyone by passing a continuing resolution with Democratic support, making his own party very unhappy, but keeping government funded for 45 more days at a time where we seem to be on the brink of a

shutdown. Almost immediately, Matt Gaetz began to threaten that he would start a motion to remove McCarthy on speaker. And on Tuesday, that came through, Tuesday evening. So there was no more speaker of the house. Yeah. It ended up giving Matt Gaetz the chance to do what he had wanted to do, which is his motion to vacate this MTV, which McCarthy gave people, especially attention seekers like Matt Gaetz,

the chance to be just one person to do it. It usually takes quite a few more people to do that. He gave them that power when he was getting the speakership. It was a really bad trade, as it turned out. And now he's out. He said, you know, he's out for choosing governance over grievance and that the Democrats could have saved him.

He claims that Pelosi pledged to stand by him. Obviously, Democrats did not stand by him. I don't know that people would blame them for doing that. These far-right people who are making demands, who are freelancing everywhere and doing things in their own interests towards comedy, all kinds of things. They just can't. And it's comedy, actually. It's sick comedy, actually. But it's dark comedy.

Dark comedy. And they just can't get it together. And Kevin McCarthy was weak and untrusted by all sides, actually. He really didn't have a lot of constituency and was not well-liked enough to be saved. He bent himself like a pretzel, unclear what his principles were besides himself, saving himself. That was it. And he didn't do very well at that. He did say that the people who brought him down are not conservatives, that they're angry and chaotic, that they do not have the right to the title of being conservative. I don't care.

Whatever. That's fine. This is the party, right? Right. I don't care. Whatever. That's fine. This is the party, right? Right. They're eating themselves. They're eating themselves alive. That's what they're doing. So let them go and figure it out.

Do you worry about, I mean, I've spent a lot of time in places where parliament gets dissolved on a regular basis. But is this scary in the United States to have a fake excuse for a ship? No, I don't think it is. If you were around for Newt Gingrich or whatever. Or had much more. Or Boehner, right? Boehner had to. Boehner. They're always in some crisis. One of the parties is always in some existential crisis, and they never seem to go away. You don't think there's broader institutional? I think Trump is the problem, is that they're dancing to Trump's tune. And of course,

his name was floated as a possible speaker, which just would be a disaster. But whatever, they like disaster. Well, Trump is something that we did discuss with John Lovett. We also got into the road to 24 and the resurgence of unions because Lovett belongs to unions in Hollywood and the WGA, and it turns out SAG. And he's in negotiation with employees of his own company who are working to unionize at Crooked Media. Yeah, I thought that was the most interesting part of the interview, not the union part necessarily, but the business of podcasting. They were super early.

Obviously, there's lots of different podcasting companies. And there's been a shakeout a little bit, but they certainly were pioneering in the business. And so where it's going, because it's becoming, podcasting is becoming more popular, but like any industry, it has to shake itself out. And, you know, there's questions of why they didn't sell, etc., etc. But they're going into a new political season that will, obviously, it's very dramatic, so perhaps that will help them quite a bit. Even though it's gross for democracy, it's good for them in their particular topics.

Yeah. Anyways, let's take a quick break, and we'll be back with John Lovett. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see? For the longest time, we have these images of somebody sitting crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night. And honestly, that's not what it is anymore. That's Ian Mitchell, a banker turned fraud fighter.

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that means the world to me. Is it? Yeah, yeah, yeah. You can talk about Los Angeles if you want, but I'm not really interested in your thoughts on that. But I'm interested in how the podcast business is going. Come all the way to Laguna Niguel. Laguna Niguel. There you are, beautiful Laguna Niguel.

I want to talk about the podcast business because one of the reasons I got into it, you and I both got in early to the podcast business. How many years is Crooked? Seven years now. Seven years, and I was in it slightly before that, but you guys really sort of led the way. Talk about how it's going from your perspective, and then, you know, podcast ad revenue growth has been slowing down for some, not us. Sports podcasts are bringing in more dollars than news podcasts. Talk a little bit

about the business from your perspective. Yes. And I would just start by saying that the smartest thing you can do in business is be in the right place at the right time by sheer luck. And I highly recommend that. I would say where we're at now is there was this period of time where it seemed like easy, dumb money. And so every agent in Hollywood would tell their clients, you need to do a podcast. You talk to your famous friends. You'll get a big chunk of money.

Everybody will love it. There's a saturation now. I think it's harder to get discovered. It's harder for things to break through. The reality is there's still a lot of work to do, I think, to grow the podcast audience to people that aren't really listening to any. But the effort to get the people that have already discovered podcasts to add one to their mix is harder than it was because people

have only so many commutes or gym sessions or trips to the toilet, which are the three biggest parts of our business. Right, I agree with the toilet. And so I think that has settled out, and I think we're finding a new kind of equilibrium. So what does that mean? What does that look like? Because there's been some that have broken through, like SmartList, which is sort of a copy of, you know, it's guys sitting around talking, essentially. I think part of it is we're seeing the same dynamic in podcasting that we're seeing in politics, that we're seeing in entertainment, which is the breaking through is harder. So it takes a bigger name, a bigger hook, a bigger draw. And there's real value to people that were famous before like 2012.

For whatever reason, fame after 2012 isn't worth as much as it used to be. All of our movie stars have to be from before that. All of our politicians that are able to succeed seem to have to be from before that. Tom Cruise still opens the movies. Nobody else. There was that stat that showed that all the biggest movie stars are all over 40 or pushing 50. And so I think that same dynamic is playing out in podcasting and the hits, the people that got in first, they're doing well. I think there's still a lot of room for smaller shows, but there's less of a middle. So how do you keep that fresh? How do you think about that? Because you guys were really pioneers and you also were riding on the Obama train and then the Trump train. How do you i mean he's coming back so you'll have another

train to get on but i don't know the answer i think we are trying to figure that out we have to make sure that if we're gonna go to the audience and say we have something you're gonna like they better fucking like it uh and they have to be able to trust that when we use the platform we were able to build at a really good moment that when we go to people and say, hey, we have this miniseries we think you're really going to like or we're going to launch this new show, we can't just say it's pretty good, hopefully it finds an audience. Things like that aren't finding an audience in the same way. And you tried a bunch. Yeah. Now, do you want to get bought eventually?

Look, I'm in the hosting and posting uh game now we're sort of trying to step a little bit out of the business we did a great deal with serious that handled all of our ads and trying to figure out what it means for crooked to be on the radio and things like that we uh have a minority investor but for now I think our goal is focusing on the mission of the company and building staying independent yeah so speaking of that bread and butter for us you were talking backstage about Scott what were you saying he oh I just it seems like maybe a union killed his dog or something yes a union killed his dog that is that what happened that's what happened it was a tragic accident yeah it's an accident, but he still holds them responsible.

All unions. All of the unions. All of the unions. But one, talk a little bit about that, because Scott's sort of, I've been getting attacked by writers today on Scott's behalf, which happens quite a bit in my life.

I have people come up to me about four times a day and say, what is wrong with Scott? Which is actually good for the brand, but go ahead. Hey, listen, he's leaving an impression. Yeah. The, you know, unions, Oppenheimer and Barbie are union made. The Flash, a bomb, is union made. The success or failure of what's going to happen with the entertainment industry

and how it has to compete not only with each other, but with YouTube and TikTok is not going to be whether or not the writers got or the actors got a raise. Even Casey Boies a moment ago was like, this is a deal that may cost a little more, but it's not going to be the difference between making something or not making something. The other piece of it I think gets lost a lot is all the ways in which having these strong unions play such an important role in the structure of Hollywood is how many fights don't happen. How many ways in which these networks and studios don't have to compete against each other in the same way the airlines don't have to compete with each other on safety. They decided they don't do

that. So that's something they take off the table. We're in the middle of this UAW strike and you see people saying, oh, you know, these unions are the reason that Tesla's going to succeed at the expense of Ford or Chrysler. But unions were making the cars during their biggest and best years and unions were making the cars during their worst years. And the reason Teslas are succeeding and there isn't an equivalent of an American company is not because union workers make the cars, because they're not offering cars that people like or want that are as competitive. I gave up my Tesla because of Elon and because it rattles. And it feels like you're driving with somebody that made for a student project. Yeah. There was something in my Tesla.

If I turned right, it rolled all the way to the left. I turned left, it rolled all the way to the right. Couldn't fucking find it. What was that? Where inside of my Tesla was there some sort of nut or bolt that came loose? I'll never know. And you know why? Was it made by a

union shop? Okay. All right. But speaking of which, you know, your employees voted to union. I know you're doing that joke ahead of this question. Voted to unionize in February. They allege, quote, less than competitive compensation, inadequate cost of living increases, and unequal imposition of in-work requirements. How are the negotiations going? So we voluntarily recognize the union. We're bargaining right now. I'm not going to speak to it. I will say broadly, we are a progressive company.

We have a progressive mission. We really do pride ourselves on having always treated people well, tried to have good salaries. We have great benefits. We are not obviously always treated people well, tried to have good salaries. We have great benefits. We are not obviously always going to agree, but we really do respect that our company is progressive. Our staff is progressive. They believe unions are a way to advocate.

We agree. And beyond that, we're in the bargaining right now. And you are in WGA, is that right? Personally? Personally. I'm in WGA, and it turns out, and I didn't know this, I'm in SAG. Oh, okay. Because I did a Quibi show.

I did one episode of a Quibi show, and now I'm in SAG. So, good deal? Are you going to vote for it? Yeah, I'll support it. Yeah, I support my union. Good deal? Yeah, I think so. Yeah?

I got a raise. It's interesting. I think 90% of the attention was AI and minimums and some of the more interesting and complicated issues, but probably the biggest amount of money is on the negotiation over the races, which I think they've got a good deal on. People feel good about it. Okay, so you think it's put off some things. Okay, so you think it's put off some things. Yes, I mean, the point, right, like, you know, it's been a few months, and, you know, the point, like, oh, they'd have to get 16% more if they're going to make up for what this strike is. But one thing that's interesting, I've talked to friends who work at studios, who are producers, who are writers, and there's been, like,

such an incredible amount of activity just in the last 48 hours. And Hollywood doesn't make widgets, right? It's not like if you lose a week of work, you can't make it up. Things are going to happen faster. It won't, things got canceled, things got killed, things can't come back. Maybe people were working during the strike.

What? Maybe people were doing things during the strike and suddenly the script comes out of the... People can write fast. Yeah, people can write fast. Okay, we'll leave it at that. Speaking of which, speaking of unions, President Biden disappeared on the lines at UAW,

but people aren't excited about another Biden-Trump showdown. I'm not sure why, but it seems to be where we're headed anyway. How do you feel? Let's get into politics, because that's your sort of, speaking of bread and butter. Is everyone underestimating Biden? Everyone always underestimates Joe Biden.

It's sort of what we do best. I don't know. We're in the middle of another kerfuffle about Joe Biden being old, which is, I have to say, in a world in which politics is not very predictable, you can set your watch to it. Joe Biden's going to be old.

And he's going to get older by a day every day between now and November of 2024. He didn't wake up old this week. People act like he woke up old this week. I think, no, people are not excited about this. I do think, stepping all the way back, the fact that we are governed by septuagenarians and octogenarians, the fact that our presidential contest is setting up to be these two figures points to a deeper lack of innovation, a kind of sclerotic brokenness in our politics. Again, a feeling like where are the new voices? Why can't, what is it about this noisy, stratified media environment

that makes it harder for people to emerge in the same way they used to? I think that that is a huge problem. Yeah. But you're not going to solve it in this one election. In this one election. So I recently did a panel on his polling woes, largely because people think he's too old.

Jen Psaki and Franklin Forrest seem to think it's fine once it becomes a choice between him and Trump instead of a referendum on his people think he's too old. Jen Psaki and Franklin Ford seem to think it's fine once it becomes a choice between him and Trump instead of a referendum on his age. Trump is also old. He's three years younger. Asstead Herndon and Alex Thompson seem less convinced. What camp do you fall? Because at some point you want to see these poll numbers move.

When would you start to panic that this really has legs? We have a saying, which is worry about everything, panic about nothing. I listened to the conversation. I actually thought it was great. And I don't have much to add except this. I think there's a kind of pundit's fallacy that comes up a lot.

And this is a great debate in which it's playing out, which is everybody knows that they're going to be wrong in one way or another. And for whatever reason, it sometimes seems that people think it is more sophisticated to be wrong when you were too pessimistic than to be wrong when you were too optimistic. There is no difference between saying age is Biden's biggest liability, and it may cost him the election, and age is Biden's biggest liability, and it may cost him the election. And age is Biden's biggest liability, and it will cost him the election. Everyone agrees with the former. Everyone. Everyone agrees. From the most diehard Democrat to the biggest internet contrarian, everybody agrees. There's just a group of people that have decided for their own purposes,

their own emotions, their own future prognosticating victories to turn a May into a will. They have no extra information. And so we know Biden's biggest liability. That's it. It's a big one. It's on people's minds. And beyond that, beyond working hard to mitigate it, figuring out your way around it, barring calamity or barring nature. Yeah. Okay. Barring God's intervention. Right.

Or the legal systems. Or Mitch McConnell moment. Or Mitch McConnell, whatever. We are heading towards this. No one knows what the future holds. Right. Got it. But nobody else got in the race at a time in which they could effectively mount a primary campaign. And so the exit ramps are behind us. We're in.

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Okay, fine. All right. Voters trust Trump over Biden on the economy by 11 points. When I asked, even though he was just found to be fraudulent in New York and his businesses are being closed down because he lied all the time. They're not Yelp reviewing his hotels. No, right. When I asked Jen Psaki about this, she said she had no earthly clue why. Obviously, proof to the contrary.

So now I'm asking you why the economy is in a lot better shape and headed in the right direction. Why? So I agree with Jen that I don't totally understand why. But I think one thing is we see polarization on how people answer questions about the economy. When a Republican is president,

Democrats say things are a little bit worse. When a Democrat is president, Republicans say things are a little bit worse. But that polarization is not even. Republicans are more polarized on some of these questions. So there is just this little bit of a skew in all of these kind of indicators where Republicans are just better teammates. And when they get asked the question, they're more likely to say things are worse under Democrat and good under Republican. Beyond that, for whatever reason, I think the pandemic, people understood, had a terrible economic impact that they don't necessarily hold Trump for. The recovery from the pandemic and all the pain and difficulties and surprises and challenges and weirdness,

I think our people are less able to do a one-to-one and not ascribe some of their challenges to Biden. So if you were given Biden campaign messaging advice, what would you change if you were in charge? You've done this before. More TikToks? change if you were in charge you've done this before more tiktoks i think the question that there's some there's some i think dissensus around is this going to be a campaign around economic issues or is this going to be a campaign about republican extremism and abortion and what the balance is going to be, right? Right now, Biden is up with this Bidenomics ad. I think there's some people say, why are you doing that? Is that really what you're going to need to be running this campaign on? I

don't know. It seems like there's some value. They see some, they must have some data or some numbers that tells them they have some work to do to shore up their message on the economy before we get to the moment where people are paying more attention. And then maybe it turns and becomes more of a story about Republican extremism, abortion. So you think it's fine right now to do that, but you think that's the stronger argument? Messaging? I don't know. I really don't. I think it's a really hard, I think, I think it's a really challenging question. How much are you supposed to tout your economic record when you believe in your success, when Joe Biden and the Biden administration can rightly point to CHIPS Act, they can point to infrastructure, they can point to a whole bunch of achievements in

which Joe Biden as president played his hand better than anyone thought possible, while at the same time seeing in the numbers that a lot of people don't agree based on how they're feeling, based on their experience, or based on how they're perceiving the economy through the news, which may not reflect the reality of how much things have improved. That's a really hard question. So someone who's very energetic is Gavin Newsom, governor of California. He's going to debate Ron DeSantis on Sean Hannity in November. I never thought I'd say that sentence. What do you think of that? Should he,

I think it's going to help DeSantis beat Gavin Newsom in the primaries. So what do you think of him as a candidate? Like what are the chances of him becoming the democratic nominee in this cycle or the next Gavin Newsom? Yeah. I don't know. He said the train has left the station several times. Yeah, I think Newsom, you have Shapiro, you have Whitmer, you have Westmore, you have Pritzker, you have Polis.

You left out Kamala Harris. You have Kamala Harris. I was talking about the governors. But no one's running right now. They're all thinking about what may be running in the future. It's interesting, right? Because a lot of people are like, oh, well, why didn't one of these people challenge Joe Biden? Like, why didn't that happen? And it's this odd kind of, the person that would have been the person that had decided they were going to be the one to challenge Joe Biden was the one who believed in their bones that it was their moment, it was their

time, they were not only the right person to win the primary, but they were the right person to take on Trump or whoever the Republican might be. I mean, that's what Obama had to believe, to decide against the odd stick on Hillary in that primary. And ironically or paradoxically, none of them ran because none of them believed they were that person. And so none of them became that person. Right. So then they aren't.

Is there anyone else, like say Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey? That would be it. I just think it's so, I think it's great that Taylor Swift has put this no-name football player on the map. I mean, this guy was suffering in obscurity. No one had ever even heard of his name before.

I just learned from you how to pronounce it. Never have heard it out loud before. I've only seen it read and only once before. He has a podcast. Does he? Yeah. It's good. And I hope that it works out for both of them.

I think that one thing out for both of them. I think that one thing that's really... All right, we're moving on. I want to make one more point about this because it's very important, which is seeing Taylor Swift being basically a football wife in the stands has been such a deep and painful blow to all the people on social media

who believe she's secretly gay. Yeah. And they don't know how to reconcile these two facts. And it's like, no, no, no, you don't understand. The secret album where she comes out is still coming. Like, is it? Is it? Because she just did a chest bump during a touchdown.

Okay. Well, that went in a direction I wasn't expecting because I want to get to Trump very quickly. I just interviewed Adam Kinzinger, but 10 out of 211 Republican congressmen voted for impeachment after January 6th, less than 5%. Primary voters, Trump is running away with the nomination. What's happening here when you look at this?

He's more popular than ever. Yeah, there was this moment in Mad Men where Pete Campbell can't figure out why this guy, Ken, keeps getting all the cool business. And the older guy turns to Pete and says, you make the clients feel like their needs are met. Ken makes them feel like they have no needs. And I think that's Trump's superpower. That's why Trump can go and try to triangulate on abortion. That's why he can violate party consensus left and right without paying any consequences. He has this relationship where people trust him inside of his party that gives him a lot more freedom of movement. And why, when Ron DeSantis or any of these other goofballs try to get to Trump's right,

it doesn't do anything for anybody. So he will be the nominee from your perspective. That's what you're preparing for to talk about? I think we have to, yes. I think nobody knows what happens when a former president of the United States faces multiple criminal trials and how the actual image of that changes people's feeling. That I think is the hardest part,

because right now, the other thing is Trump has been able to kind of wipe the floor with these guys on electability as well. There could be a kind of cycle where the images start to hurt his numbers. It starts to give somebody else a chance, right? But something has to soften in the country. These people are not going to beat Trump with their campaign. Something has to soften in the country. These people are not going to beat Trump with their campaign. Something has to change in the fundamentals. So barring that happening, and say the trials drag on, give us a case that he will not be the nominee and a case that he will. I think the case that he will be the nominee is a lot easier to make.

If you go back to the polling in New Hampshire before 2016, it basically landed where the polling average is. The polling average is better for him now than it was then. He is on track to win Iowa. He has solidified... The reason Ted Cruz was able to win a few primaries and caucuses in 2016 is there was this group of more conservative voters who weren't comfortable with Trump yet. Those people are now with Trump. Trump's strength is across all these different demographics now in a way that it wasn't true before. So I think basically you look at what's happening right now, nothing fundamentally changes. He's on track to be the nominee the the case for someone else is that something starts to weaken him and it and

starts to soften his numbers people are able to coalesce around one alternative and a few news cycles where it seems like trump is going to be facing an onslaught of of prison sentences or just just terrible headlines and make it hard and which will make it hard for him to campaign, and suddenly it happens slow and then all at once. Slow and all at once. Just six out of ten Republicans thought Nixon should remain president, and Nixon resigned. He probably shouldn't have. Well, famously.

I mean, I'm glad he did. No, and I wasn't sure, and now I do know that he did resign. But what's interesting is just how much more power the media had, because yes, the Republicans thought he shouldn't resign, but man, his numbers tanked. Nixon was what, down to the teens or early 20s

in just a matter of weeks, and that just power doesn't exist anymore. All right, we're going to have a quick lightning round. Tell us whether you think it means we're closer to the end times or not, or there's reason for hope. Robert Menendez has refused to resign. Well, he has to get to the paper and his pockets are so full. He's so slow. are so full. He's so slow. The Menendez stuff,

man, gold bars, you can't Google in the car of the person who's bribing you how much is this gold worth. It used to be hard. It used to be harder

for the cops. It used to be a little bit more difficult for the cops. And now, these criminals are just in their house being like,

how to dissolve wife bones. And it's like, you're caught man okay but but i think the fact that democrats called on menendez resign tells you that there's uh at least on one side yeah george santos has refused to resign yeah yeah and you know what i kind of respect that. Okay. All right. Hang on, man. What's he got left? What's next for him? It's a salary. No one's making him go. Stay as long as you want. Maybe that HBO naked show. Research into online misinformation is shrinking because of the attacks from the GOP. People are not doing misinformation research. They're being sued. Yes. I think, look, we just had a story. We just had a U.S. Senator, Mitt Romney,

tell a reporter for The Atlantic that people are not voting the way they want to vote in the Senate because they are worried about the threat of violence. Like the fact, Donald Trump, the Republican front runner and former president said that Milley should be taken out and executed. The ways in which we have gotten comfortable and inured

to the way violence is already on a daily basis warping our politics and that that becomes sort of a status quo ante, a kind of background noise, is incredibly dangerous. Paul Gosar wrote that General Milley was strange and sodomy promoting and then in a better society he would have been hung. But he is a great dentist. Okay. All right. Last question. Mark Meadows allegedly burned so many White House papers in his fireplace that his wife ran up a big dry cleaning bill trying to get rid of the smoky smell. Yeah, that's going to work. They also have his text. Can't burn those. Yeah. Yeah. Not as easily Alright

Prediction of who is going to win The 2024 election We don't do predictions We don't do predictions It's going to be close It's going to be close Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey

Alright On that note Sean Levin I liked his point about pundits defaulting towards cynicism. He was saying people believe it's more sophisticated to be wrong and too pessimistic than wrong and too optimistic. I think he's right. I think that's not unusual. You know, this punditry has sort of gotten out of control.

I mean, it's been around forever, but I think everyone has a take, you know, a hot take kind of thing, or they're not usually hot. They're usually lukewarm takes in general, because it's one, it's cheap to produce when you're doing those things. And the other is it's, um, doesn't take a lot of real reporting or thoughtfulness. And so, you know, there are very smart observers of the political scene. I think crooked media is one of them, um, who spent a lot of time talking to people and there's others who just mouth off, uh, mouth off. But his point was around, it's more sophisticated to be wrong and overly pessimistic than wrong and overly optimistic. You think that's true? Like, nobody likes a Pollyannish character, but everybody likes a cynic? I don't know. I don't know. I think there's, you know, there's, I think we swing between hope and despair in this country. And we're in the

despair period for quite a while now. And yet, he wasn't particularly optimistic. I didn't think he sounded particularly optimistic about Biden's chances or about the future of the Democratic Party. Yeah, I think everyone who's paying attention, obviously, there's such a ridiculous circus going on in the GOP to compare them is not even close. But there's certainly worries. It's really quite amazing that Biden's had so many accomplishments and he still, you know, remains lower. I have not been that way. I've been quite, I'm like, it doesn't matter right now. Everybody's low at this point in their tenure. And if you just look at the statistics, Obama was, Clinton was, Bush was. And so, I just wait and see. I'm paying attention to the elections that are happening, the special elections, which Democrats seem to be winning all over the country. So, we'll see. We'll see where people in a year, and we'll see what happens with Trump being, you know, he's sitting in court

right now, which is kind of comical and horrifying at the same time. And gag ordered. Yeah, and gag ordered, because he's such a jerk. And this GOP thing, we'll see. We'll see if it has any resonance, or if people are like, you know, it just hurts everybody. I think that's probably the case. Yeah, it hurts the country. But I heard his whole take is kind of you get the Democratic nominee you deserve, not the one that you want necessarily, which is his point was that, you know, Obama really believed that he could take on Hillary and therefore he took on Hillary Clinton. And yet that hasn't been the case with anyone. You know, Obama was a once in

one of those once in a generation politicians who inspired people. That happens periodically. I mean, it's an old trope, but Republicans fall in line and Democrats fall in love. Well, right now, not this week, didn't fall in line. And Democrats aren't in love with Biden. But, you know, that's the way it goes. Or make and do. Make and do.

Well, if not, the president could have a podcast, a future in podcasting. Yeah, maybe. Who knows? Maybe Kevin McCarthy. We should call him, the president could have a podcast, a future in podcasting. Yeah, maybe. Who knows? Maybe Kevin McCarthy. We should call him, see what he has to say. Actually, we should call him. Let's call Kevin.

We should do it. Kevin, you have nothing to do. Let's call Kevin. Let's hear your exit interview with Kevin McCarthy. Yeah, let's hear your belly aching about Matt Gaetz. I actually think that, you know what John was saying, that it's very hard for celebrities to start podcasts. Not everybody is going to. That time is over. is saying that it's very hard for celebrities to start podcasts. Not everybody is. That time is over. I, one, don't know that that time is over because I do think in some way there was a time

where every YouTube influencer wanted to make an app. It was a company called Download. Kim Kardashian had had her app. Remember the WME did with her? That was quite successful, I guess, for her. They were paying outlandish minimum guarantees to these artists. But there is an argument that we live in a society where people want, you can saturate your audience. You don't need a huge audience. You need an audience that really wants to spend time with you and engage with you on different levels. Like Patreon has done that. Others have done that. So maybe Kevin McCarthy could have a very successful afterlife as an influencer.

Let's try him out, Kevin. The floor will be yours. Not the one that you used to run, but ours. We'll talk to you about anything you want. You can go on and on and on about grievance and grifters and clickbait. We're thrilled to hear about it. All right. On that note and that invitation to our floor, want to read us out, Cara? Yes. Today's show was produced by Naeem Arraza, Christian Castro-Osel, Megan Cunane, and Megan Burney. Special thanks to Mary Mathis.

Our engineers are Fernando Arruda and Rick Kwan. Our theme music is by Trackademics. If you're already following the show, you get to be Speaker of the House. If not, you get to be Kevin McCarthy's podcast co-host. Go wherever you listen to podcasts, search for On with Kara Swisher and hit follow. Thanks for listening to On with Kara Swisher from New York Magazine, the Vox Media Podcast Network and us. We'll be back on Monday with more.

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