On with Kara Swisher - What’s Next for GOP & Trump – w/Charlie Sykes & Manu Raju

Episode Date: January 12, 2023

The dust from last week’s once-in-a-century, marathon voting session in the House has settled, and Kevin McCarthy is finally Speaker of the House — for now. But what’s next? We talk to Manu Raju, CNN’s Chief Congressional Correspondent, and Charlie Sykes, a former conservative talk radio host and a founder of The Bulwark, to make sense of it all.  They run through some of the colorful personalities in the House Republican Conference, unpack how the Republican Party unraveled and discuss the opportunity for the Democrats to emerge as unified party. And, of course, they make predictions about Trump, Biden and more in 2024.  You can find Kara and Nayeema on Twitter @karaswisher and @nayeema. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Do you feel like your leads never lead anywhere? And you're making content that no one sees, and it takes forever to build a campaign? Well, that's why we built HubSpot. It's an AI-powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing, and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer.

Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. Support for this show comes from Constant Contact. If you struggle just to get your customers to notice you, Constant Contact has what you need to grab their attention. Constant Contact's award-winning marketing platform offers all the automation, integration, and reporting tools that get your marketing running seamlessly, all backed by their expert live customer support. It's time to get going and growing with Constant Contact today. Ready,

set, grow. Go to ConstantContact.ca and start your free trial today. Go to ConstantContact.ca for your free trial. ConstantContact.ca I only have my sunglasses. I forgot my glasses. Oh, okay. That's okay. Except I have to drive the Bolt with my sunglasses. That is a little bit weird at night, but okay. There you have it. Hi, everyone.

From New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network, this is Matt Gaetz's Venmo account, but with much more age-appropriate activity. Just kidding. This is On with Kara Swisher, and I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Naeem Arraza. What is in your Ven Swisher, and I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Naeem Araza. What is in your Venmo account activity? I don't know.

Different people. My tenants in San Francisco pay me through Venmo. Oh, Casey Newton. Yeah, Casey Newton incoming. Venmo's me, yeah. Anyway, how are you? I'm good. I'm well. I'm getting ready for going to Europe soon.

Oh, yeah, we are. Yes, that's right. Also, Pivot. So it's going to be Scott Galloway. We're going to be in Germany. And we're going to have to watch Scott in all these countries. I think you're going to interview the CEO of BMW. Yeah, that's right. Also, Pivot. So it's going to be Scott Galloway. We're going to be in Germany. We're going to have to watch Scott in all these countries. I think you're going to interview the CEO of BMW. Yeah, that would be great.

I'm going to talk to Ben Smith and Justin Smith. The Smith brothers, see how that's going. Smith brothers. Yeah. I know. What a time to launch a media business. I know, right? They're getting a lot of attention. They are. And they do good stuff. I like their stuff. Yeah, they do.

But speaking of panels and talking, we have a panel today. Yes, it's about the great dysfunction that is the Republican Party. And this has obviously been in the news for a while. We've all been glued to C-SPAN chewing popcorn last week watching the very long saga of Speaker McCarthy play out. But as we tape this, a few other major waves are playing out. So big news is that President Biden is starting off the second half of his term with news that his lawyers discovered classified documents in an old office. This leads to a bit of, I'm sure, hot calling, kettle black analogies from the Trump folks, although Biden and his team are cooperating with the Justice Department. Yeah, they're not blocking it and lying about it.

They're like, oh my God, we found these and here they are and come in and get them. And it's so different rather than your witch hunt or this or that, making it into a political fundraising thing. That's true. The House Republicans are settling down from the near-violence saga of last week. Wasn't violent. Near-violent. Near-violent. The guy with the bad toupee just leaned into Matt Gaetz.

That's it. That's really pretty much it. That's the kind of WWF I like to watch. pretty much. That's the kind of WWF I like to watch. What I appreciated was Katie Porter, who's now going for Dianne Feinstein's seat, reading the subtle art of not giving a fuck. Yeah. Well, they were just sitting around voting the same the whole time for all those 15 votes. The extreme right wing has obviously been flexing more power, even maybe going more right than Trump. And we're all wondering what all this means for the 2024 presidential contest as two Floridians who used to be friends. Sort of.

Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump seem to be duking it out on a presumptive Republican nominee. They're as much friends as you and I are, Cara. I think we're better friends than that. But nonetheless. We are. A little known fact, you were a Republican for a little bit, closeted Republican. Yes. Yes, I was.

And now, is this the least functional you've seen in the Republican Party? I don't, you know, I don't think they are functional. I just think you just see it now. It's just they're not, in the age of internet, everyone has to be an id. And so now they, and they want their personal attention and their personal brand. And so nobody falls into line anymore. They want to be their own Instagram star and a version of Twitter or whatever. That's fair. What was the famous Bill Clinton quote that was like, Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line?

Well, now they just, nobody falls in line now. Yeah. So I'm not an expert in this. I just watch it from afar. But today I've got the experts. Yes. Our guests today are Manu Raju, the chief congressional correspondent for CNN.

I think he's great. Everyone I talk to on Capitol Hill said he's one of the hardest working people up there. And I think he gets a lot of scoops. I feel said he's one of the hardest working people up there, and I think he gets a lot of scoops. I feel like he's always on the Hill. He lives on the Hill. It's like me in my closet, him on his Hill. And Charlie Sykes is the founder and editor-at-large of The Bulwark, host of The Bulwark podcast.

I've been on the podcast. It was really enjoyable talking to him, and he's an NBC and MSNBC contributor. He's a former Republican, but he's still a conservative. A reformed Republican, but yeah, he's a lifelong conservative. And of course, the Republican Party, the Overton window has shifted so drastically. He seems liberal, but he's not. That's not the case. And so I think he's a really good, he's always been very smart and actually quite fair in analyzing the state of the GOP. So what does this all mean? What are the implications? You know, that other stuff was a circus and kind of ridiculous, and it sort of exposed power centers and nothing more than that. And so I want to find out what's next and how in the world did Marjorie Taylor Greene

get to be the reasonable person in this group of people? I really want to understand that. For that, you might have to interview her, something I know you don't want to do, but yes. I don't have to be real drunk. You don't drink. It's not going to happen. I don't. Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. Naima, what's your big question for this episode? Yeah, I think electing a speaker should be the easiest thing that the party does. So I'm curious if the showdown we saw play out is going to happen for every vote going forward.

And then I've lived a chunk of my life in parliamentary systems. So I think now of these parties no longer as parties, but as kind of weak coalitions. And I'm curious to understand which one they think is stronger, the Republicans or the Democrats. And is there an opportunity for Democrats right now? Yeah, I think there is. We'll see. Let's see what they have to say.

All right, let's take a quick break and come back with Manu and Charlie. Fox Creative. This is advertiser content from Zelle. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see? For the longest time, we have these images of somebody sitting crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night. And honestly, that's not what it is anymore. That's Ian Mitchell, a banker turned fraud fighter. These days, online scams look more like crime syndicates

than individual con artists. And they're making bank. Last year, scammers made off with more than $10 billion. It's mind-blowing to see the kind of infrastructure that's been built to facilitate scamming at scale. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of scam centers all around the world. These are very savvy business people. These are organized criminal rings. And so once we understand the magnitude of this problem, we can protect people better. magnitude of this problem, we can protect people better. One challenge that fraud fighters like Ian face is that scam victims sometimes feel too ashamed to discuss what happened to them.

But Ian says one of our best defenses is simple. We need to talk to each other. We need to have those awkward conversations around what do you do if you have text messages you don't recognize? What do you do if you start getting asked to send information that's more sensitive? Even my own father fell victim to a, thank goodness, a smaller dollar scam, but he fell victim and we have these conversations all the time. So we are all at risk and we all need to work together to protect each other. Learn more about how to protect yourself at vox.com slash zelle. And when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust. Support for this show comes from Grammarly.

88% of the work week is spent communicating, typing, talking, and going back and forth on topics until everyone is on the same page. It's time for a change. It's time for Grammarly. Grammarly's AI ensures your team gets their points across the first time, eliminating misunderstandings and streamlining collaboration. It goes beyond basic grammar to help tailor writing to specific audiences, whether that means adding an executive summary, fine-tuning tone, or cutting out jargon in just one click. Plus, it surfaces relevant information as employees type, so they don't

waste time digging through documents. Four out of five professionals say Grammarly's AI boosts buy-in and moves work forward. It integrates seamlessly with over 500,000 apps and websites. It's implemented in just days and it's IT approved. Join the 70,000 teams and 30 million people who trust Grammarly to elevate their communication. Visit grammarly.com slash enterprise to learn more. Grammarly, enterprise ready AI. I completely apologize. I didn't bring my glasses. I'm not doing this to try to be someone. It's my only glasses at work. I hope you don't mind.

It's very dark Brandon. I had it before him. Let's not get clear on that situation. I may take them off and just read. Charlie, Manu, thank you so much for joining me. You're the two exact people I wanted to talk to about this. Manu, you're literally inside the halls of Congress. I believe you live there almost every day talking to lawmakers.

So tell us about the deals McCarthy had to strike in order to become speaker and things that maybe people don't know about and how they'll affect his ability to get things done. Yeah, look, the question is, how long can he last? Because really the only two things that they have to do in this new Congress is to fund the government and to avoid a collapse of the economy by raising the national debt limit. And he had to make two deals with the far right that are going to have huge, huge ramifications, one of which we are really just learning about because they have not publicly released to this point all the details of those side agreements. But we're only learning about this from our reporting

and what he's telling folks inside the room and what some of the members are telling us is that on the funding of the government, they're saying that they will not accept any bills that come out of the Democratic-controlled Senate that do not adhere to their own Republican budget on the House side. And that includes a cut to domestic spending programs. That is a no-go for Senate Democrats. So that's going to be really hard to fund the government. And then to avoid

a debt default, they're saying that this must be tied to a significant amount of cuts, corresponding spending cuts. That is a no-go for the White House and Senate Democrats. So if McCarthy were to back away from those agreements, then he has bound to the other issue that he cut, other deal he cut, to allow for a single member to call for a vote to oust a sitting speaker. So if he backs away from this, his speakership will be immediately put to the test. And they'll be voting continually, correct? Exactly. So there's a situation, an economic collapse, a government shutdown, or potentially seeing a speakership essentially ended almost within a few months here. Charlie, you're shaking your head as Manu says this, almost jumping out of your seat. What were you wanting to say?

Well, I mean, what could go wrong here? They basically checkmated themselves. basically, they basically checkmated themselves. You know, I got a little bit of flack from some of the right-wing media for describing what Kevin McCarthy did as self-gelding. But basically, he made himself the weakest possible. That's not a term that's used enough in life. Well, that's right. I hope to reintroduce it to the lexicon, or at least Kevin McCarthy will. Because, I mean, he has made himself the weakest speaker. I think that's pretty obvious. But he's also set up these absolute train wrecks. So, you know, I am old enough to remember when Ted Cruz used to try to shut down the government,

and he had no end game. He had no strategy to actually succeed. So, to a certain sense, this is a back to the future. That sort of, you know, tear it down, you know, tear it all down, burn it all down, you know, Tea Party vibe. What's interesting about this to me, though, is that, look, the Republicans will continue pushing culture war issues. They'll have a lot of messaging issues. There'll be a lot of performative votes, etc. But how does it play out? Is the Republican Party really going to go after Social Security and Medicare? Because, could I just point out, that is not a political winner even among Republican voters. Are they really going to become the party of defunding the military, which is also an extraordinary shift. These things play well with the base, with the

hardcore, with the fever swamps, but I think that they're going to be very politically problematic. And as you pointed out, Kevin McCarthy is completely held hostage to this. There's always this assumption that the calmer, wiser heads are going to prevail, right? We will never default on the debt. We will never really do something catastrophic. But if you're watching what happened over the last week, if the calmer, wiser heads prevail, they will have Kevin McCarthy's head on a plate. If he tries to negotiate or do the grown-up thing, they potentially will end his speakership. Charlie, you're a Republican for a very long time. You've been analyzing your party your entire professional life.

How is this moment different? Ex-party. Yeah, ex-party, right, I'm sorry. Well, I mean, that's always the interesting question, what's new and what's old here. Number one, I mean, this is not new that you have the perpetual outrage machines working. It's not new that you're going to have very weak speakers.

I mean, there's a reason why Paul Ryan desperately did not want to become speaker. So what you have is the, I think, just the devolution of this party, almost a post-Trump kind of extremism here. You know, Trump gave a lot of oxygen and a lot of attention to the Marjorie Taylor Greens of the world, to the people who are the, you know, we don't need to be a governing party. But now, I think you're seeing the degree to which the entire Republican Party is held hostage by the most extreme elements. But I want to make just one point here. I think it's a real mistake to characterize that speaker fight as a fight between the extremists and the moderates or the bomb throwers

in the establishment. Because really, you know, as my colleague Mona Cherin wrote, it was really between one brand of extremists and another brand of extremists. Remember, Kevin McCarthy is relying on the votes of people like Marjorie Taylor Greene. He needs the votes of George Santos. You look at some of the people who are becoming the chairman of the committee. These are election deniers. These are people who would have been on the far fringes of the party at any previous time. So what you're seeing is this continuation of the pattern that we've seen for some years. And now, look, I mean, there are some things that they asked for that were legitimate, you know, having 72 hours to look at the bills.

I get that. These are fine. But what Manu described before is a formula not just for political dysfunction, but for a kind of government paralysis that is going to have huge consequences. So you think last week was bad. That is just a preview of what the next two years are going to look like. And while that was a, you know, eat your popcorn and enjoy the television show in DC, the consequences are coming to a town near you. I mean, it's going to be big. So let's go through a quick lightning round of Republicans in the House now. And I want to understand who the players are going to be. I'm going to throw out some names.

Manu, I want you to give a quick diagnosis of their superpower and Achilles heel for each. And Charlie, you tell us if the person's a true believer or a phony, okay? And if you want to add Achilles heel, go right ahead. So Matt Gaetz, arguably the loudest holdout, someone who almost gotten assaulted on the floor, sort of. Go ahead.

I mean, his strength is that he is close to Donald Trump. His Achilles heel is that he does not have many friends within the Republican conference. Charlie? Yeah, well, his strength is like Donald Trump, complete shamelessness. Is he a true believer or phony? You know, I think he's a complete phony. He's a complete fraud. And I think people saw that.

So that's his Achilles heel that everybody hates him now. Everyone hates him now. But again, it doesn't matter to him because what he really wants to be is a host on Newsmax, not an actual lawmaker. Yes. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who was with McCarthy from the jump and somehow emerged as most reasonable of the bunch. I cannot believe space laser, Jewish space laser lady was in on it. So, Manu, go ahead. I mean, the strength of that she has been able to make herself much more influential within the

House Republican Conference and the leadership by allying herself with Kevin McCarthy. That was certainly not expected last year when she was on the outs. They never wanted her to even win the job in her initial run. They were hoping she would lose her primary. She won. Now she is very tight with the Republican leadership. Her Achilles heel is that, you know, she is a polarizing presence, particularly among Democrats, and she's a recognizable name, and Democrats can easily point her alliance out with McCarthy and attacking them, you know, going forward. Charlie? Well, first of all, we should not normalize Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is not a reasonable person. Her superpower is the same as her Achilles heel, that she is a conspiracy theorist, batshit, crazy bigot, and anti-Semite. And for some reason, that's made her a rock star

in the Republican Party, but it's also her Achilles heel, because to the extent that she becomes the face of the new Republican majority, they are screwed. I mean, this is a dangerous thing. So believer or phony? What do you think? I think she's a believer. I watched one of her speeches.

I thought that is a smart political person, crazy as she may be. No, no, no. She's a believer. It's bullshit. But she believes it. And that, I think, is the difference between her and Matt Gaetz, who doesn't necessarily believe anything. But again, it's always dangerous to go inside these people's heads. What do they believe?

What's there? Right. That's true. Jim Jordan, the Ohio congressman who helped found the Freedom Caucus trying to get votes for McCarthy, another one who sort of sidled up the power. You know, his power is that he is beloved by the right. As we saw him and these votes that nominated him to become the right, as we saw him. And these votes that nominated him to become a speaker, that was not just for show. Part of it was they actually wanted him to become speaker.

And Kevin McCarthy recognizes his power, too, which is why he elevated him. He's now the House Judiciary Committee chairman. He's close with Kevin McCarthy. He's very, very influential. very influential. You know, his challenge going forward will be trying to sell himself to the more mainstream part of society, the media, get more credibility within both aspects, because he's going to be in charge of some key investigations this year. And will they be credible?

That's going to be his challenge. Charlie? Well, first of all, I think he needs to get a fucking jacket if he's going to be the chairman of the—I mean, could you get the guy a coat? I actually don't think that he's going to be – He's not getting a coat. Yeah. There's no coat.

His task may be that he needs to sell himself to the mainstream. I don't think he's that interested in it, and I don't think he's capable of it. His Achilles heel, he's got the documentary coming out. He has never really been hit with that. And so that's baggage, particularly when the right is really all concerned about, you know, the pedo Democrats and things like that. I would say George Clooney is a killing seal. Well, yes. All right.

Elise Stefanik, chair of the House Republican Conference. Look, her strength is she's able to ally herself with Donald Trump. This seems to be a common theme, but it's also very important with the Now's Republican Conference. That's why she was able to knock out Liz Cheney from that position. And now she's a member of leadership. Her Achilles heel is that she was more moderate. She used to be a moderate, more establishment, down the middle Republican. Now she's a MAGA Republican. So that was a pretty quick transformation, but it helped her politically. Well, her incredible cynicism and the way that she did, you know, was a complete shapeshifter and all that showed that she was a woman without any principle whatsoever, you know, abandoned almost everything and everyone that she had been

identified with before this to go all in on Trump. So again, apparently her strength is her ability to shapeshift in this Republican Party. The downside is that even I think Donald Trump down in Mar-a-Lago sees her as a shapeshifter. So a phony and therefore does not trust her. All right, I have to do this. New York Congress, George Santos, if that's his real name, to do this, New York Congressman George Santos, if that's his real name, Hill's newest and most accomplished connoisseur. I feel like I'm in that Eddie Murphy movie, Man of the House. Remember that when he came up, The Grifter? Such a good movie. So what do you, anything? I mean, look, I don't know how long he survives in this position. I mean, this is one day after another, there's something new or some investigation. He is going to face some serious investigations.

He could very well be indicted. He could lose his committee assignments. He could be forced out of the job. He comes from a swing district, too. So it's hard to see him staying for longer than two years. But, you know, he McCarthy, I asked him about that yesterday. What do you he would only say? I'm only dealing with this internally.

We're not talking about any of the issues that have come up. So McCarthy realizes that, you know, he needed his vote to become speaker and he got it. George Santos is going to be like that dead fish left out in the sun because they can't get rid of him because they need his vote. And it's going to get worse and worse and worse. But I also think when they finally make the Netflix miniseries about him, he will be the personification of the Trump era of politics. I really think that the lies, the shamelessness, the complete lack of any accountability. But I think there's something- Wasn't there a Leonardo DiCaprio movie about this? The guy became a pilot and a doctor and whatever. I just think, I love all these movies about Theranos and about the fire festival and about all of the grifts and everything.

This is the age of grift and phonies. And he's like perfect. He's like, you know, inventing, what is it? Was it inventing Anna? I mean, there's. Yeah, yeah. So, yeah. Hello.

These are all fantastic stories. And, you know, this is our political version of that. Yeah, I don't think he survives. I don't know. All right, Trump tried to keep his most ardent followers like Boebert and Gates in line, and he failed completely. He put himself out there, risk looking weak. Where is he? Manu, you go first.

Because he's going to have an influence on this particular house. Yes, on this particular house, and that's probably where he's most influential. And, you know, of course, there's the part of the base that loves him and is loyal to him. Now, the problem is that he has lost so much juice since the elections, you know, not just from January 6th. That's one aspect of it. But really since the midterms, you know, they, Mitch McConnell and the Republican leadership and the Senate side, they blame him squarely. They say it is essentially completely his fault. The candidates he chose, him being a major presence in the campaign late, they blame him for Pennsylvania. They blame him for Arizona. They blame him for Nevada. They blame him for all their big Senate losses, which is why

they're in the minority. And look, that is the biggest thing. And when you're in politics, winning and staying in power, and they blame him for costing them both, and that hurts him with large swaths of his party. All right. He is not irrelevant because he still has the power to destroy, but not necessarily to do things that get his deplorables elected. But having said that, I thought that his shrunken clout was so dramatically on display this past year. And I'm haunted by Olivia Newtsey's portrayal of him as kind of Norman Nesman. Wandering around. Wandering around saying, I'm ready for my close-up. Because

what he most fears is to be irrelevant and to be ignored, and he was. But that doesn't mean that he is not still a force, that he cannot keep people in line. If he puts out statements accusing people of being a rhino or demanding that people be thrown off committees or insisting that Kevin McCarthy do this or that. that, you know, until proven otherwise, he remains the front-running candidate for the Republican nomination for... Remains. He remains. He remains, yeah. So he still has power. I mean, they definitely trotted him out a lot, right? He's pathetic and diminished, but still dangerous.

We'll be back in a minute. Support for the show comes from Indeed. If you need to hire, you may need Indeed. Indeed is a matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors, according to Indeed data, and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast. Listeners of this show can get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at indeed.com slash podcast. Just go to indeed.com slash podcast right now and say you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Thumbtack presents the ins and outs of caring for your home. Out. Procrastination. Putting it off. Kicking the can down the road. In. Plans and guides that make it easy to get home projects done.

Out, carpet in the bathroom. Like, why? In, knowing what to do, when to do it, and who to hire. Start caring for your home with confidence. Download Thumbtack today. But before we get into the priorities, the one thing I want to point out here is that McCarthy was very shrewd in trying to co-opt some of those folks on the far right because they were very close to Donald Trump. One aspect of his deal was to include some of these members on a very powerful committee in the House called the House Rules Committee. That dictates the terms of legislation on the floor, amendments, legislation. It determines everything.

Typically, that is controlled by the leadership. But McCarthy agreed to put some members of that hard right freedom caucus on that committee. So that is going to drive and shape the kind of bills that could come to the House floor. But they will plan to put together bills that have no chance of becoming law, but they will pass because the House

is a majoritarian institution. You could pass things along straight party lines. It will be stalled in the Democratic-led Senate where you need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. So we're not going to see much actual legislating in the next two years. What we will see is a lot of investigating. That they can do. They have unilateral subpoena power. They don't need Democratic support to issue subpoenas. They plan to put together a select committee to investigate the Justice Department investigations that they believe were unfair. They're planning to look into those matters. They're looking, of course, into Hunter Biden's business dealings and the Biden family.

Yeah, these raft investigations. Exactly. Border security, COVID-19 origins. There are lots of issues that they can plan to push. And look, they may find a lot of revelatory information. So you don't want to suggest that it's all I mean, of course, a lot of it's political, but you don't know what they're going to find. So we'll see what they ultimately find out. Which one is going to keep Joe Biden up at night? I mean, I think it's going to be the Hunter Biden investigation. It's unclear what they'll exactly find.

There are suspicious overseas business dealings that they say that they don't have much information about, that they plan to issue subpoenas for. And so at some point, they'll ask Hunter Biden to come testify himself. So that will keep Joe Biden. What about the documents that just showed up? Yeah, you know, it's unclear at this exact moment how they plan to deal with that. But I suspect that they will not going to drop it. They're going to look all around the communications that happened at the White House and with the Justice Department and the aftermath of it. So even if these documents don't turn out to be particularly damaging, there are going to be a whole source of other issues for them to explore. And James Coleman,

the House Oversight Committee chairman, told me that he plans to push ahead on this, as well as some of the other committees as well. So that's certainly going to be part of the... Right, and it's going to be dragged into Donald Trump's investigation, which is much more serious, presumably. But nonetheless, it becomes an equalizing force. Charlie, what do you think their priorities are going to be? So I think you need to break it into three buckets. The investigative, the performative, and then the genuinely dangerous. So the investigative, a lot of it's going to be complete bullshit, but some of it is legitimate.

I think it's legitimate to have a committee that looks at what happened in Afghanistan, the origins of COVID. If there was a remote possibility that would be a good faith investigation, that would be all right. A lot of it is going to be simply show trials. All right. A lot of it is going to be simply, you know, show trials. The performative aspect of this also is not going to keep Joe Biden or anybody up at night. These are the kinds of messaging bills that Manu was describing. They will go absolutely nowhere. Right. But the genuinely dangerous comes when it comes to keeping the lights on, paying the bills and avoiding debt default.

keeping the lights on, paying the bills, and avoiding debt default. Kevin McCarthy, by the way, just on Kevin McCarthy, people could write hundreds of years from now essays on human ambition and the dangers of human ambition and the lack of principle using the case of Kevin McCarthy. But given Kevin McCarthy's situation, there's just, you know, I am trying to think of the scenario in which they do not blow things up. Yeah. I mean, the other challenge for McCarthy here is that he doesn't, it's not just the hard

right. There are all these members from Biden districts that are central to him getting the majority. They're the ones who are more moderate members. They're the ones who are not going to go along, even on some of these messaging bills that are designed to throw red meat to the base. It may be difficult to pass those bills because those same moderate members are going to say, no way. So more than four defections on any bill is enough to scuttle his efforts going forward, which just shows you just the challenge he will have. So when you think about that, are there four Republicans that are like that? Is there

a Kyrsten Sinema mansion group forming? Because they would have enormous power. Yeah, there are. Who are they? Who are they? I mean, there's people like Brian Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania. He is, they call themselves, he's a part of what they call the Problem Solvers Caucus. It's a bipartisan group in the House that he is the co-chair of.

He's a moderate member from a swing district. There are people like Don Bacon of Nebraska, also from a swing district. There's an incoming freshman named Mike Lawler from New York, somebody who beat a Democratic leader, Sean Patrick Maloney, in the past election cycle, someone to look out for. Dusty Johnson of South Dakota, also a member. So there are a handful of members that could presumably join with Democrats, but they have to go around the leadership. There's a way you can do that. It's called a motion to discharge in the House, which means that if 218 members sign onto a petition, they can essentially force a vote on a specific piece of legislation. Now, what can they agree on?

Perhaps if we're facing an economic default, they can agree to put something on the floor to raise the debt ceiling. But, you know, we'll see if we ever get to that. But they have the other problem in the Senate. You need to get 60 votes to get- They could have an enormous amount of power, and that's the return of the power. Just because the right is so powerful, the middle could be quite powerful. Exactly. And, you know, they have never really banded together to use their power as effectively as the far right has, as we've seen in the speaker's race. They've talked about being more forceful in the new Congress. I mean, the House is a institution of coalitions.

They'll have to figure out a better way to organize to be effective. And, you know, they're talking about that. So we'll see what happens. What do you think about that, Charlie? I guess the big question is whether the moderates, the normies, are willing to go to the mat the way that they, the crazy, because there are not that many normies. And the problem with the normies is the history of the last five, six years is that when push comes to shove, they walk away, they go someplace else. You know, there have been so many instances of this. So maybe there will be issues. But this question of the discharge petitions is very

interesting to me because, you know, anyone knows, I think in the current environment, that if you vote for a discharge petition to bring a reasonable piece of legislation to the floor, you vote against the leadership on this. You vote with the Democrats. You basically have placed a political gun at your head. I mean, this will guarantee that you will be primaried. The cost of that will be very, very high. Maybe they will do it.

But keep in mind what happened to all of the Republicans that voted to impeach Donald Trump. Now, I'm not saying this is the same thing, but I'm saying that this will carry the same kind of stigma within Republican circles. So the pressure will be very, very intense on them. Yeah. So 118 of those representatives are election deniers, by the way. It's the reality of winning a GOP primary. Let me ask you, what is the, each of you, Manu, start, what is a stronger coalition nationally right now, Democrats or Republicans?

Oh, that's a tough question. I mean, the Republicans are divided post-election, post-Trump. The way that the midterms went suggested that they need to find another way forward, and they have not figured out what that way forward is. other way forward, and they have not figured out what that way forward is. And so if you're talking about unity within the party, the Democrats are far more united because of Trump on the Republican side. And, you know, you just look at the House versus the Senate, the House Republican leadership versus the Senate Republican leadership, Mitch McConnell versus Kevin McCarthy, there are deep divisions about what is their way forward post the midterms that went not the way they expected. They're not in the majority in the Senate. They're barely in the majority in the House.

Donald Trump is a polarizing figure within their own party. Mitch McConnell wants nothing to do with Donald Trump in the future. Kevin McCarthy's aligned himself with Donald Trump. So that is a real problem for them as we head into 2024. You know, Democrats don't have everything harmonious with them. They are still figuring out. But they're always arguing. Exactly. They're always arguing.

Progressives versus the more moderates. Progressives have the energy in the party. Moderates want to be able to help their party do better. In rural parts of the country, they have really struggled. And there's also division about whether Biden is the guy that they want to run against. Yeah, but they are always agonizing. So go ahead. I'm sorry.

Charlie, what do you think? Well, I agree with that analysis. But, you know, you asked earlier what is new now for the Republican Party. And I think that it is the MAGA crackup that you're seeing that is very, very real. When I talk about the MAGA crackup, I mean, I don't know about you, but I did not have Marjorie Taylor Greene versus Lauren Boebert on my bingo card. I mean, and they are all going after one another. So, I mean, there was that sense of unity for a while as part of the cult.

And you can really see, you know, the knives that are out there. So these divisions in the Republican Party are very real and they're going to play out over the next two years. real and they're going to play out over the next two years. I have to say that one of the most extraordinary things about last week, though, was watching the Democrats, who are notoriously in disarray, just sitting there completely united that they voted unanimously for Hakeem Jeffries. I mean, this has not happened in more than a decade for the Democratic Party. And they have real differences between the progressives and the more centrist. But at least for the moment, they can sit back and watch the Republicans rip each other apart and then take these positions that I think are going to be politically toxic. And there's something about being in the opposition, it really sharpens your

political strategy, your tactics. That's a good point. It's easy. It is. It's a lot easier. And they're battling with each other so much for the past two years about what these bills need to pass, what they need to look like. Now they have a common enemy, and that will help their political strategy. And it will go away. Even though, you know, Jeffries is more centrist and progressives have problems with him, they'll still go a lot. It's like better than that kind of thing. We saw that.

Yeah, one hopes. People always ask Never Trumpers some version of when will the Republican Party heal itself? So Charlie, tell me, ask you the opposite. What happens if the gang of conspiracy theorists, white supremacists and election diners continues to gain power? And then Manu, what does that do to legislation? Go ahead, Charlie. Well, I think they will, at least in the short term, continue to gain power. And I think that we have to live with this, I think they will, at least in the short term, continue to gain power. And I think that we have to live with this. I think that we have to recognize that the fever is not going to break anytime soon and that we are going to be living, I'm sorry to be depressing at the end here, living with the consequences of this for 30, 40, 50 years.

I think we're going to look back on this and say, okay, do you remember where this all came from? I mean, look back to things that happened. 30, 40, 50. Okay, well, think about the impact of 1968. Is that the past or is that really still shaping a lot of our politics? What happened from 1965 to 1973? And it's going to be like that going forward because you have a whole generation of people

who've been brought into politics, who are going to be here for going forward because you have a whole generation of people who've been brought into politics who are going to be here for a very long time you have a completely new media ecosystem you have a new fight series of you have a new financial incentive system for politics all of that is going to stay in place whoever wins these nominations so there may be improvement, but I think it would be naive to think that we've gone through a bubble. And I admit that in 2016, I thought, we'll just get through this and things will get back to reasonably normal. Maybe after 2020, we thought, okay, get rid of Trump. Things will go back to normal. That is not going to happen. And yeah, I mean, you've already seen

that it's the makeup of the Republicans change in Congress during the Trump era. You know, you look at, we talked about the House, but the Senate, you've seen the change from the more Bush Republicans, the more middle of the road establishment, business friendly Republicans, even conservative Republicans,

those type of Republicans gone. Those deal-friendly Republicans, even conservative Republicans. Those type of Republicans, gone. Those deal-making Republicans, gone. And Trumpy Republicans, people more aligned with the former president, becoming part of the body. And that reflects the base. Yeah, look what happened in Tennessee. Lamar Alexander, Bob Corker, two very deal-making type senators who have relationships on both sides of the aisle.

They were conservative Republicans. They were replaced by Marsha Blackburn, very close to Donald Trump, Bill Hagerty, a very conservative member of the Senate. You look at what happened in Ohio. J.D. Vance is the new senator from Ohio. He replaced Rob Portman, who is a Bush Republican, business guy, Portman, who is central, who's a Bush Republican, business guy, very, cut the infrastructure deal. Vance strongly opposed the infrastructure deal while he was running in the primary in Ohio. So you're seeing that already taking place. And that impacts the legislation. That impacts how votes come to the, what votes can, will get the majority in the Senate or a super majority to break a filibuster?

So you're already going to see that impact, and it's going to continue as the body continues to change. All right. So we're still here. The fever doesn't break. So let's end with predictions. I'm going to get you each to do them very quickly. How long will McCarthy last? Manu?

That is the question in the Capitol. You know, he said he's going to last. There's a thousand percent chance he lasts the next two years. You know. Yeah. I think he looks fit. What happened there? Look, I think I say something, but I think there's a chance he could last the next two years. I think there's a I would give it a 50 50 chance that he lasts the next two years.

But I, you know, I think there's a chance he could be done by the middle of the summer if he cuts a deal on the debt ceiling. But he doesn't want to lose his job. So I think he's willing to go to the mat and let it go on for the next two years. All right. Charlie? Okay. So I have a head of lettuce up on the counter in my kitchen. And I am betting that the head of lettuce lasts longer than Kevin McCarthy.

Wow. Okay. Liz Truss. A little Liz Truss there. The Brits are so good at getting rid of people. We're not so good at it. All right. Then who are the Republicans with staying power? Who will we watch in 2024? Prediction?

Manu? For the Republican nomination for president? Since lettuce is not staying around. Is it Romaine or Iceberg? Because Iceberg is Iceberg. I love Iceberg. If we're talking about the Republican nomination for president, I mean, like, you know, we obviously talk about Ron DeSantis a lot. And he certainly has a lot of support within the Republican Party.

You're seeing that in the polling and among voters and the like. He has not yet been put to the test. You know, we talked. No, has not. You know, we saw everyone was talking about Jeb Bush in the run up to 2016. And we saw what happened there. So, you know, we really just don't know. I do think you're going to see a lot of people try to position themselves as the non-Trump Republicans who support Trump policies.

You'll see Mike Pence being part of that mix. You may see some others throw their hat in the ring, like, I don't know, possibly like a Larry Hogan, who has been obviously much more critical of Trump, but Chris Christie, Mike Pompeo. So, you know, which of those emerged? I mean, I just, it is just, it's impossible to break two years out. I don't want to try. And of course, Cotton and Hawley,

I can't tell them apart anymore. They're just one man. So Charlie, what do you think? Well, I mean, Ron DeSantis is- You took your hat at Hogan. Well, I don't see that happening. I mean, he'll run, but, you know, I mean, that's why people are waiting on Ron DeSantis. Glenn Youngkin would be plausible as well.

But, you know, the problem with Ron DeSantis sitting down there in Tallahassee, you know, everybody thinking he's the heir apparent. Well, you know, people should ask, you know, President Fred Thompson, President Rick Perry, President Scott Walker how that works. You know, a lot of these guys look really, really good on paper. I certainly remember President Rudy Giuliani, you know, that are front runners before they get into the race. He is very much untested. And I think that is the big question. So the best thing that Trump-

My take is that just a civilian, he's charmless. But go ahead. No, no, no. He doesn't just play an asshole on television. Apparently, he is one. The people who've served with him in Congress say he's a complete jerk. Like that guy. He looks like everyone's ex-husband.

Anyway, go ahead. He will not wear well. All my friends' ex-husbands. Well, yeah. No, and that's why he may not wear well. So this, again, is the biggest asset that Donald Trump has. If you had to pick one, if you had to go. Well, in many ways, Ron DeSantis— You can't pick the head of lettuce. No, no, is the biggest asset that Donald Trump has. So if you were to pick one, if you were to go. Well, in many ways, Ron DeSantis.

You can't pick the head of lettuce. No, no, no. Ron DeSantis, if he gets his act together, might be the magic bullet to take out Donald Trump. But if there's a crowded field, Donald Trump knows history, knows even though he's tired and he's bored and, you know, he's shrunken. If he's got a crowded field, we're talking about the change in the Republican Party. The real change in the Republican Party is just a reflection of the way the Republican base, this is a base problem.

And there's still 30, 40% of that base that's gonna vote for Donald Trump. If it's a five, six person race, Donald Trump could emerge from that. That's why I think there's gonna be tremendous pressure on Rhonda Sanders to get in and for the field to coalesce. Who the hell knows what that is. Around one.

Yeah, but I don't know where that's going to happen. I'm going to go with Youngkin. Yeah, maybe. He's tall and handsome. He could happen. And conservative enough. All right. So last one.

Who will be president in 2024? Someone we're not talking about right now. I mean, gosh. I mean, we're just in such an unsettled period in American politics. I mean, isn't this just amazing? Right. with or without his legal problems. The party is so badly divided. You have a president of the United States who would be the oldest, who's the oldest president. Would he run for reelection? That's still undecided at this moment.

So, you know, Biden sounds like he's running at this moment. There's no signs that he's not, but there are a lot of people who don't want him to. So maybe he changes his mind. So you're asking me a very direct question that I'm trying to evade. I am. Okay, trying to evade it. Charlie will not evade me. I think it's going to be Joe Biden, but go ahead.

I think it's going to be Joe Biden too. I don't think the Democrats have a real plan B. He's clearly running. I understand all the arguments about his age, but I think that this is a party that's going to be very united over the next two years. I don't think there's going to be a primary challenge. It's not doing too bad. No. It's doing well. Yeah.

I think it's going to be Biden. All right, so Joe Biden. Biden. Joe Biden with the aviators. Anyway, thank you so much. You both have been doing such amazing work, and I really appreciate your thoughts, and we'll see what happens,

and I hope that head of lettuce, you get to eat it at some point. I'll tweet out the picture. I don't think that Joe Biden is going to be elected president in 2024. I think you're wrong. Joe Biden's going to be president. You know, everybody, like Scott was like all on that man boy Beto. And I was like, no.

And then he moved over to someone else. And I'm like, no, it's going to be Joe Biden. It's going to be Joe Biden. I think it's going to be a Democrat who's not Joe Biden. Joe Biden. I don't know. We'll see. I'm just telling you it is. I thought that was a really good interview. I thought they're very smart and, you know, even handed. I think they really filled in a lot of stuff and moved it forward of what it means beyond the circus.

I learned a lot from Charlie's body language in that taping because I felt Charlie Sykes was, as Manu was just reporting out the reality of the Republican Party dysfunction, Charlie Sykes was shaking his head, waving his hands, just like, it looked like C-SPAN last week. I mean, he's been in this party for decades and he's watching it unravel. What have they done to my house? And then when he said that George Santos was a personification of Trump era of politics. Yeah. It's crazy.

If you saw this happen to a party of yours that you cared about, you'd be like, what the hell is happening here? And it is kind of ridiculous and cartoonish with Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert and the whole – they're just so preening and so performative. And it's ridiculous. It's all visual. It feels like a constant game of TikTok with these people, like that you're watching bad, bad, bad TikTok. So yes, I don't even think it's a game. But I think that was your question in the beginning about Marjorie Taylor Greene. And I agree, we should not normalize somebody who spouts out such misinformation. But it's because I think

like Charlie's answer was that she's actually authentic. She believes what she's saying. She does. And there's actually authentic. She believes what she's saying. She does. And there's actually power in that. She's the most dangerous because of that. She believes it. And that's what's difficult. Some days I was watching. Is there any amount of money we can give some of these people to get them to go?

We can make a collection, give it to them and let them go take a yacht. The whole time I was listening to that conversation, I was thinking about why are more people in my generation not running for office? And I know why. I know people who have run. I know people who were Republicans or Democrats, people who voted to impeach, people whose family faced threats. Yeah, you have several, yeah. Yeah, and I just think that we really need people who believe, who are believers but sane at the same time. Well, I think there are in the Democratic Party, Sarah Jacobs, Lauren Underwood, there's a lot of really, you know, there's a lot of interesting politicians that are young and coming up.

And you'll see that. It's just, you know, you don't, the ones that were very promising in the Republican Party got zeroed out unless you strike a fealty to Donald Trump, even if you didn't like him. So there's a lot of people that could run, I think. Yeah, but people don't. I mean, like I look at my grad school class, like who ran for office?

One person. They make more money being hedge fund jackasses, I guess. Yeah, but I just think there has to be a culture shift. And Silicon Valley has been a big part of that. Government doesn't matter. Government's ineffective. I'm telling you, I have a lot of young friends that are, at least in democratic politics, that are going to be running, and I'm excited for them. I will give them small amounts of money. I thought it was interesting, and maybe I was, you know, interesting and optimistic that they thought the Democratic Party was the strongest coalition. They kind of intimated that. Honestly.

But only because there is the coalescing power of the villain. Yeah, the bar is so low. But what happens when Trump goes away? What happens when it's Glenn Youngkin, as you predicted? That's harder. That's much harder. You know, that's like Reagan. He was very appealing. Appealing to you. It was very, which I had a poster of in 19.

I did. I had a poster in my freshman dorm of Ronald Reagan. I had a poster of Britney Spears. So there you go. I can't believe it. I wish I could find that poster. I had a Morning in America poster. I'll admit it right now for all of you.

I had a Morning in America poster in my freshman dorm. Well, we both went to Georgetown, that place to make you conservative. Yeah. Anyway, there we go. Anyways, let's get us out of here. Cara, can you read us out, please? Yes, I can. Today's show was produced by Naeem Araza, Blake Neshek, Christian Castro-Rossell, and Rafaela Seward. Special thanks to

Andrea Lopez Cruzado. Rick Kwan engineered this episode, and our theme music is by Trackademics. If you're already following the show, you get a Plum Committee assignment. If not, you get to sit next to Lauren Boebert and Matt Gaetz. I'd like to sit between them. That's where I want to sit.

We're just on Earth. Listening to this podcast between them. This could be your future. But in any case, to keep yourself occupied while sitting next to them, go wherever you listen to podcasts, search for On with Kara Swisher and hit follow. Thanks for listening to On with Kara Swisher from New York Magazine, the Vox Media Podcast Network, and us.

We'll be back on Monday with more. Support for this podcast comes from Anthropic. Thank you. select few. Well, Claude by Anthropic is AI for everyone. The latest model, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, offers groundbreaking intelligence at an everyday price. Claude Sonnet can generate code, help with writing, and reason through hard problems better than any model before. You can discover how Claude can transform your business at anthropic.com slash Claude. Huntress is where fully managed cybersecurity meets human expertise. They offer a revolutionary approach to managed security that isn't all about tech. It's about real people providing real defense. When threats arise or issues occur, their team of seasoned cyber experts is ready 24 hours a day, 365 days a year for support. Visit huntress.com slash vox to start a free trial or learn more.