Open Book with Anthony Scaramucci - American Recession Watch, Extreme Wealth Gap, & Crypto Stalemate

Episode Date: April 1, 2026

Markets are flashing warning signs, and the U.S. consumer is taking the hit. Mike Novogratz and I break down why traders have shifted from buying the dip to selling the rally, what the wealth gap mean...s for the economy, and where crypto stands as the Clarity Act stalls. This is a market you need to understand right now! Michael Novogratz is the Founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital. He was formerly a Partner and President of Fortress Investment Group LLC. Mr. Novogratz served on the New York Federal Reserve’s Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets from 2012 to 2015. He serves as the Chairman of The Bail Project and has made criminal justice reform a focus of his family’s foundation. Learn more about Galaxy here: https://www.galaxy.com/ Follow Anthony on X: https://x.com/Scaramucci Follow Novo on X: https://x.com/novogratz Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm, and founder and chairman of SALT, a global thought leadership forum and venture studio. Learn more about SALT here: https://www.salt.org/ Pre-order my next book, All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, out on the 17th of September in the UK and the 22nd of September in the US: ⁠https://linktr.ee/anthonyscaramucci Referenced in the episode: https://www.axios.com/2026/03/28/iran-war-inflation-costs?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top https://www.wsj.com/economy/wealthy-americans-us-economy-dba0d26a?mod=hp_lead_pos7 https://www.axios.com/2026/03/24/jobs-labor-college-gallup?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiospm&stream=top https://www.galaxy.com/newsroom/galaxy-to-match-us-governments-contribution-to-trump-accounts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:39 That will lead to higher fertilizers or prices, higher food prices, higher plastic prices. And so there is a daisy chain of inflation that's headed our way. Most of the traders, including myself that I know have gone from a buy-the-dip mentality to cover your short and then sell the rally. mentality. So there's been a real shift in that mindset in the last five to seven days. We're a month into the war. I don't know who's winning the war. Maybe you can tell me who's winning the war, but I feel like the U.S. consumer is losing the war. As we're looking for good stocks to buy or good securities or businesses, how much of the consumption is now being driven by that portion of the population. I mean, 50% of the consumption is being driven by the top 10% income earn. That's crazy. This is a very
Starting point is 00:02:27 dangerous market right here. Welcome to all things markets. I'm Anthony Scaramucci and I'm Mike Novagrats. All right, Mr. Novagrats. It's 4 p.m. The market's about to close here on Monday, March 30th. A little bit of trivia for you, Michael, because 45 years ago, you're going to be able to tell me exactly where you were on March 30th because this is the anniversary of the Reagan attempted assassination. So where were you, Michael? because I know you remember. I was. I was literally home from school
Starting point is 00:03:00 in 8724 Waterford Road, where my parents still lived in our living room, actually, our family room, whatever. And I was watching TV. I remember his bodyguard, his body man, was the father of one of the great wrestlers
Starting point is 00:03:20 in Northern Virginia guy named Bob D. Prospero. And literally was like a hero of mine. And his father, was not there that day. And I think he wore that hard for a long, long time. Like, you know, it was his guy and he had the day off. Anyway, Reagan handled it like a champ.
Starting point is 00:03:39 Al Haig, not so much. Al Haig, not so much. Yeah, well, he was going under anesthesia. He looked up at the surgeon. He said, you know, I hope you guys were all Republicans. And the surgeon, who was a hard left Democrat, looked at him and said, you know, Mr. President, we're all Republicans today. And, of course, he removed a bullet that was less than an inch away from the president's heart.
Starting point is 00:04:03 And the president went on to serve two terms. And I do miss Ronald Reagan, which is why I'm bringing it up. But let's talk about our courage. You know, my first job was with Reagan at the Office of Management Pudgeon. I do remember that. And I do remember that was a time, as you've pointed out, where we were benchmarking our GDP to our governmental expenditures. And we were pretty strict about it. We were really trying to keep our deficits down, even though they looked high at that time.
Starting point is 00:04:29 They weren't high, at least on a percentage of GDP. But let's talk about where we are right now, Michael. We're a month into the war. I feel like the U.S. consumer, I don't know who's winning the war. Maybe you can tell me who's winning the war, but I feel like the U.S. consumer is losing the war, meaning gas prices are up, mortgage rates are back up. Stocks have been fluctuating, but generally down. over the period of time of the war, how would you react to that state?
Starting point is 00:05:00 The war, there was hope that this could be a fast war like Venezuela, that we'd have regime change. And I think that quickly turned out false hope. And now we've got, you know, crude at $104 as we speak and, you know, Brent crude's at $120 or $118, whatever. And so oil is high. That will lead to, higher fertilizers are prices, higher food prices, higher plastic prices. And so there is a daisy chain of inflation that's headed our way. Consumers have already slowed some, but I think the real slowdown is coming. I think the markets in the last few days went from just derisking to now saying, oh, maybe it should price in some chance of a recession.
Starting point is 00:05:51 And so you saw yield curve steepen, gold go up, when stocks went down, that was different than it had been the previous 10 days. The big tech stocks, the big data center plays, all the CAPEX, which has been supporting GDP, is under some stress because credit spreads are wider, because energy prices are higher. And so the whole CAPEX process, labor is up in those areas, is going to be more expensive per dollar. And so you're seeing the Vidiya's chart does not look great. Google's chart does not look great. Medi's chart does not look great. The Kaspi, which had been the last winner because that's memory, right? That's where the memory chips are made.
Starting point is 00:06:41 That's gotten its teeth kicked in in the last, you know, two days. And so, listen, we could have a bounce tomorrow because it's month end and there's a lot to buy to rebalance. But most of the traders, including myself that I know, have gone from a buy the dip mentality to cover your short and then sell the rally mentality. Right. So there's been a real shift in that mindset in the last, I'd say, five to seven days. So speaking of shift, pre-war, prices seem to be trending down or at least going in the right direction. There seemed to be some full market activity, right? The Dow was at 50,000.
Starting point is 00:07:25 And if you and I were guessing on rates, as we've done in previous programming, we would have suggested that rates were likely to go lower. Warsh coming in, at least making one, you know, targeting three cuts, maybe even by the end of the year. but today I think it's very different Michael. You know, the Fed, you know, Powell obviously spoke at Harvard today. The quote was that rates are in a good place. You know, hiking now wouldn't bring down gas prices, so he's not going to do that. But he is wary. I think the difference between the U.S.
Starting point is 00:07:58 And in Europe is we have a dual mandate. This is a supply shock. It's going to drive prices up. We are going to have to live with higher inflation for a wide. our Fed will not raise rates unless things get really bad. So they'll just stay. But it's going to be much harder for Worse to come in and say, hey, guys, we got to be cutting.
Starting point is 00:08:20 I got trouble. I got trouble in River City. Trouble that's a T that rhymes with light. So Worse is going to have to come in, calm the world, and slowly win over the Fed to, hey, when this thing turns, we can front run. Well, like, in the pipeline, we've got some bad inflation prints.
Starting point is 00:08:39 coming, right? There's just going to be ugly PPI and CPI prints coming. And so I had originally thought Worse would come in and cut his first meeting just to pay homage to Trump. And then after that, he'd be, let's see what the world looks like. Now I think he'll come in and probably just have to keep things steady and not cut until we get some semblance that the oil market is cracked. and that this inflation, this supply shock inflation will come and go. We kind of know it will come and go. We just don't know the duration of it. Okay, but under the theory of that dual mandate, one of the things that we're looking at
Starting point is 00:09:20 in that mandate is employment. And employment numbers right now seem reasonably good, right? We've got an unemployment rate of 4.4%. But it feels like hiring is collapsing, particularly for white collar professionals. Am I wrong in saying that, Michael? And if I'm not wrong, how does that affect your macroeconomic adjustment? Yeah, no, I think you're going to see a lot of white-collar layoffs. It's early to see when they all come through.
Starting point is 00:09:48 So we've got a jobs number on Friday. All eyes will be on that. There's the joltz before then. You know, this Claude code really didn't smash onto the consciousness of CEOs until about, I'd say, six, eight weeks ago. And so I think we're just going to be, we're just at the start of that process of saying, oh, I can replace this guy with an agent.
Starting point is 00:10:15 But it's going to happen fast. Yeah, well, look, I mean, listen, I've been using it. I think that then I tell my staff, the better questions you ask, the better outcomes you're going to get. And you have to keep pushing the AI. And if you push the AI, it's incredible. Yeah, we all have to learn to be architects.
Starting point is 00:10:33 Yeah, it's incredible what comes out of it. Yeah, no question. I mean, it's just incredible how much more productive and how thoughtful it can be in aiding us and making our decisions or even just getting rid of emails that we don't want to have subscriptions to. Michael, there are 430,000 households in the country that are worth $30 million or more. Is that a lot or a little to you? It's on the numbers, guys. So we have 350 million Americans, right? Divide that by 10 is 35 million. Divide that by 10 is 3.5 million. So 1% would be 3.5 million, right? So divide that by 10, you got 35, I'm sorry, 350,000. No, 35, yeah, 350,000.
Starting point is 00:11:25 And so it's one-tenth of 1%. That feels about right. You're a one out of 1,000 person to own 30 million. Okay, what about the $100 million number? There's 74,000 households that have $100 million. I guess I'm saying these numbers are way, I mean, they're small on an overall relative percentage of the population, but that group of people is controlling a magnitude of wealth, a huge amount of consumption.
Starting point is 00:11:57 And is that, is it where are you, you're a macroeconomic trader? I did too much. meetings today with different politicians. Won a independent running for Senate in Montana. Sharp guy West Pointer. I actually think he has a shot at winning even though he's an independent. And won a center-left New York congressman. And both conversations ended up heading towards the pitchforks.
Starting point is 00:12:32 both of these guys are centrists both worry about pitchforks on the right and pitchforks on the left you know AOC, Bernie Mondami they have a story that resonates
Starting point is 00:12:47 with people who don't feel like they're being listened to or they have enough money and you know Trump had worked that story on the right though I think he's lost a lot of that support base but it's the same thing and as it gets worse their voice gets more appealing.
Starting point is 00:13:05 It's going to be harder and harder to keep the center to show an alternative. I think both parties are going to have to address that elephant in the room that, hey, there's inequality that's so so high that it's bad for our democracy. And we need to do something about it. And then what we do about it, right, the class of a Republican is ignore and, you know, cut taxes, cut regulation, let us grow. out of it. Well, that just hasn't worked. The Democrat plan of redistribute the way they've been redistributed hasn't worked either. And so, you know, you'd like to hope that there's some fresh ideas. I personally think we're going to have to move to a UBI world where just being an American citizen is the right to have some stability of life, just like being a Norwegian because they have the
Starting point is 00:13:56 oil is. And that we're going to have to turn the recipients of that UBI from welfare. Queens into Americans to say, hey, that's just part of being in America. But I think we've got to be able to give it to people directly because they know how to spend it instead of shoving it through these big bureaucratic city and state and federal government bureaus that seem to waste it. But that's a big discussion, Anthony. That will be the discussion in politics, 2026, 2028. There's no other discussion that's going to matter. But to me, it's also an economic discussion because the constant, as we're looking for good stocks to buy or good securities or businesses, how much of the consumption is now being driven by that portion of the population.
Starting point is 00:14:43 50% of the consumption is being driven by the top 10% income earners. That's crazy. It's truly incredible. So I want to switch to another thing that's so on fire. Like make a reservation to a restaurant, you can't get in on a Tuesday night. A Monday night you can't get it. You've got to call me, Novogras. I know how to take care of all these matriads, okay?
Starting point is 00:15:04 I'll get you in. You're just going to give me a call. That's the difference between Italians and the rest of you people, okay? I can get you in, Michael. Don't worry, all right? Exactly, okay? They call those Italian singles in my neighborhood, Mike. Let's go to another warning light on the economic dashboard that I'm worried about.
Starting point is 00:15:23 I know you're worried about. Is private credit is rocking, Michael. It's shaky. Is it 2008 for private credit the way it was for banks and investment banks? Is this something that gets resolved? Is this something that Kevin Warsh? I think it's going to have to deal with. But I don't think it blows up.
Starting point is 00:15:42 But I don't think it blows up because people are not shy to put up gates. You've seen it at Black Rock. You've seen it at a bunch of places. And what that ends up usually doing is people sell liquid stuff to fund the money they need for private stuff. that there's not tremendous amount of leverage in these funds, like the private credit funds aren't highly leveraged, like the banks were back in 2008. And so,
Starting point is 00:16:09 but I think it weighs because as that private credits do worse, trying to raise new credit gets more difficult, right? You're in the market. There's a tremendous amount of credit that needs to be given on this data center world, right? All this giant CAPEX plan that relies, relies on credit. And so the lenders start getting more nervous. And so that slows the economy. I don't think it creates, I'm, I am full disclosure. I am short credit through IG swaps.
Starting point is 00:16:42 And that's kind of a broader hedge because Galaxy is long with the credit markets needing to be open to fund our data centers. And so we want to keep that as part of our strategy. And so I've been watching it tick for tick. It hasn't exploded yet, but it's grinding higher. And you know, we got to keep our eye on it. I don't think it becomes a four alarm fire right now. But, you know, being short the banks feels like a pretty easy trade in the stock market, right? You could be sure something that you don't think is going to blow up the smithereens just because they're going to find earnings pressure or the perception that they're going to have trouble. And, you know, they don't trade great.
Starting point is 00:17:24 Okay. It's just something I want to worry about. This is obviously not a political podcast, but there's something that the president's doing that I think as traitors we'd have to look at and at least acknowledge and then discuss if there's any strategies around that. And that it seems like the president is coming up with market rallying rhetoric the last three or four Sundays. And so he goes to the back of the plane of Air Force One on the way back to D.C. and he says some pretty favorable things. We have a new regime. He's even called a regime change
Starting point is 00:18:01 and a result of which we're going to be dealing with more secularist people in Iran and there'll be a peace process. The market starts off rallying and then closes lower. People trading that, Michael, people ignoring that. I mean, I think what happens is when we've 30 days into war, people have de-risk their short S&Ps,
Starting point is 00:18:24 against other stuff, the market is always susceptible for a one to two and a half percent squeeze. And they are, bare market squeezes are brutally painful because they happen so fast. You're like, up, oh shit. And so, yeah, the president has certainly added volatility. Listen, there's no one who, I don't think there's not an American left or right. If they're honest, that doesn't want regime change. That old regime was horrible. I'm all, I'm praying.
Starting point is 00:18:55 I want regime change and I wanted American troops out of harm's way. We've had two and a half decades of that. So I would prefer not to have that, but we're here now. There's still some discussion in Washington about the Clarity Act. You and I are more keenly focused on it, but the average person has more or less written that off. Bitcoin seems to be languishing here in the mid to high 60s. Yeah, there's a lot of anger at Brian Armstrong on Twitter for being self-righteous about holding the line. I'll say it again.
Starting point is 00:19:32 I think Brian is right intellectually. My guess is he might have to fold in the end or compromise. I think it's shame on the senators, both left and right, that instead of actually deciding what's best for America, they are too scared of both the crypto lobby and the banking lobby to make it a sense. decision. So they keep saying, you guys get in room and figure it out. Like, I have, I'm willing to wrestle. Like, put, put crypto and banking and let's fight it out. Like, at one point, they disagree. So it's up to the senators to say, hey, this is going to be law. But they really don't want to piss off Coinbase. And they don't want to, and they're like, it's almost like Brian has a veto.
Starting point is 00:20:14 That's insane. That's not the way lawmaking is supposed to work. Or, quite frankly, Jamie Diamond doesn't deserve a veto. Like, again, put them in a cage match if that's how we're going to decide things. But this is, it's gotten ridiculous, period. So is it, is it holding back Bitcoin where you think it's, it's holding back crypto because, listen, it's not the end of it if it doesn't happen. But it sucks because we've got all of these institutions that are getting engaged anyway, that will accelerate their engagement. Right. Donald Trump is just down. out at the FII conference, I was there, says, hey, we're going to be the Bitcoin capital of the world. I got a, I had left before his speech, and I got a text from a reporter who had interviewed me,
Starting point is 00:21:00 and I said, well, how's the speech? And she said, well, the one thing that's clear is he likes Bitcoin. He's insulted a few people, but he really likes Bitcoin, you know, this administration is bought in on crypto. And so for them to fail with this market structure is terrible for them. right? And so we'll see. I think they'll put a lot of heat to try to get this thing done still. I'm still a holdout that it's going to get done. So what would that mean for the markets though, Michael? You think you'd be some short covering or you think it would be? Yeah, I think it brings more money into the system again. You get people are short. You have some short covering. I think it accelerates the stable coin world, the tokenization, the real world asset world. It's happening anyway. People are using the SEC's blanket kind of, hey, we're pro-crypto and we're not going to, you know, we're not going to call you a non-security. I'm not going to call you a security if you're a crypto, you know, crypto ecosystem. They're using that to kind of get re-engaged. But it just solidifies it, right? Because it's pretty clear that Republicans won't win in 2026. It would take a miracle. 2028's a long way off. I won't comment on that. But the momentum is definitely shifted away from where all the crypto bets got made. And so man, oh man, as a crypto CEO, it will feel a lot better if these new rules are codified
Starting point is 00:22:30 into law. But then it's not just, I'm begging on the SEC commissioner. We went from a horrible anti-crypto SEC commissioner, horrible for crypto, to a unbelievably pro-crypto SEC commissioner. like that pendulum will go back and forth. That's why we need this law. Michael, the strategy yield bearing security. It's right now roughly yielding 11.5%. And so you put money into strategy, our friend Michael Saylor's company, and you'll get four quarterly payments,
Starting point is 00:23:05 dividend payments that are equivalent to roughly 11.5, 11 and a quarter percent. Is that given where rates, saw and given what happened to things like block five and things like that as long as bitcoin holds its muster and strategy traits close to some small premium to bitcoin or even at bitcoin but not at a huge discount michael will be able to keep paying that 11 percent and it feels like a very good trade but it's leverage on strategy and so let's assume he did a ton of it right there's less there's less cushion if Bitcoin goes down. Michael bases a lot of his belief on the fact
Starting point is 00:23:47 the Bitcoin can go up and down, but it's on its way much, much higher. And the people that are buying into strategy have to have a belief that at least it's going to be here. Right. And he's got a big cushion. I don't want to sound any alarms. But he's putting leverage on his company in a modest way, right? It's a huge, it's got a huge amount of crypto. And there's not. And there's not. not that much of this perpetual that's been sold yet. But there will be a time when he can't sell anymore unless he has a bigger corpus. What is the big risk, Michael? Bitcoin went to $30,000.
Starting point is 00:24:26 You would lose your principle on that security. Yes? No, because it's, so Michael's done two things interesting. It's a perpetual. So your long strategy, right? You have no right to take the money back. He, I believe in this, the one we're talking about, he has the right not to pay the dividend if he doesn't want to. Now, if he doesn't pay the dividend, people are not going to like it that much. It'll trade it to discount.
Starting point is 00:24:53 But he's got a ton of cushion on this thing. In all likelihood, you'll get your 11 and a half percent. You're just selling a tail. And it's a pretty, you know, out of the money tail you're selling. All right. A lot of a lot of viewers and listeners of ours are asking these questions. I should point out that, you know, I'm a huge fan of his, and obviously Skybridge owns a lot of Bitcoin. We don't own any of that security, but I just wanted to disclose that to people. I want to flip to something that you're doing that I give you a lot of credit for, and that is on these Michael Dell American Dream accounts, where Michael is putting in $1,000. He's putting up $6.25 billion. you've agreed to match that for your employees at Galaxy.
Starting point is 00:25:43 So first of all, I wish I was just Michael to match it for $6 billion, but we started with Galaxy employees. All right. Listen, it's a great thing to do. I've got a 25-person shop, so I will make an announcement here on this network that we'll do the same thing for our employees,
Starting point is 00:26:03 which is a small crumb of a thing compared to you guys. But tell us about that. and tell us structurally and from your point of view as a philanthropist why that is so important to do. Listen, you know, it's so funny how the world's gotten so politicized because they're called Trump bonds, people get really nervous about them. We used to call them baby bonds. And it is broadly trying to encourage people to put money into an account that goes into the market that as long as the market does what it's done historically leaves. you know, your child or a group of children, hopefully underprivileged children, with a nice, you know, bit of principal to either go to college with or to spend on their first house as they come 18, 19, 20, 21, 22 years old. And it's a, it's a brilliant idea.
Starting point is 00:26:57 It was kicked around for years. But this really got its movement by the guy from, the West Coast, he's the venture guy, Hedgefug guy. Brad. Brad Gershner. Brad Gersh, who's a friend. So Brad really pushed this thing and got del engaged. And you know, it's great. I was actually looking at what would it cost for New York City
Starting point is 00:27:24 or what would it cost for the Bronx to do all the underprivileged kids. And these are doable amounts of money. And it's a, it's both symbolically important and it's going to be fiscally important. And so I'm always looking at ways that I can be bipartisan in a time where it's hard to because there's plenty of things about the administration I disagree with. But this wasn't one I thought was a great idea.
Starting point is 00:27:49 So that's why we decided we were going to jump in. Yeah, I think it's important for both of us to be objective, whatever our political persuasions are. Of course, I love this idea. And I think it's important to help people think about investing in the virtues of compounding. What other things are you seeing on the economic dashboard that are either blinking green? You need to get more long or red. I've got to get out of that position or get short in the near term. Well, listen, stocks don't look good.
Starting point is 00:28:22 And I think there'll probably be some short squeeze in the next 24, 48 hours because of the month end. But they look like they have broken down certainly a lot of the big leaders. And so until future notice, I think you've got to be cautious on the stock market. Short rates in Europe really went to pricing and almost 100 basis points of rate hikes. The ECB probably will hike rates at one point just because they don't have a dual mandate. They have an inflation mandate. And if they think inflation is going to get stickier because of all those secondary effects, I will say. But I don't think, I think it got overpriced.
Starting point is 00:29:00 So why does the market get overpriced? is because everyone who had the old view has to stop out. I don't know if you saw Kaxton was down 50% on the month that, I hope they're still not down 50%. I like Andrew Law, but that got flashed across the Bloomberg. That's a dramatic hit for a macro fund, right? I'm guessing it's because he was in a lot of front rates in Europe,
Starting point is 00:29:21 both in the UK and Europe. I don't know. That's I'm just a guess. Lots of macro funds had that trade. It got washed out. It's probably a safe place to be now. I think there's still a risk crude goes higher. I don't have a position right now, but like I'm,
Starting point is 00:29:38 I watched that very carefully. It's hard to trade because if we do get a piece out of the mid-east, if, you know, J.D. Vance over there, whoever he's negotiating with comes up with something that looks like a ceasefire, you know, that's going to fall 15, 20 bucks right away. And stocks will rally. And so very difficult place to have a huge amount of risk on right here. I said this four weeks ago on your podcast, on this podcast, our podcast,
Starting point is 00:30:08 that when you start having geopolitical events and you start getting this correlated risk unwind, you should get out of all your positions and then just be a sniper. I wish I had done that. I've ground back my losses to kind of flat, but that is still probably the right place to be, less risk until there's either really obvious entry points or there's a new story. But this is, it's a very dangerous market right here. So I've counted nine bear markets for me. You lived in Asia, so maybe you have more bear markets in your life experience.
Starting point is 00:30:52 I feel this is certainly a bear market in crypto. It doesn't feel like a bare market necessarily in stocks yet, but it doesn't feel like a bull market either. We were near correction territory on Friday. But usually when these things happen, at least in both of our careers, Michael, it's a setup for lots of moneymaking. So tell us about your current market psychology and what should young people think about when they're going through periods of time like this, what you just described? where, you know, your P&L's churning sideways. You should preserve your capital and you should be patient.
Starting point is 00:31:32 And when you think it's time to get in, you should then wait a few more days, right? You should look at your chart and think, where could things go? Right. And so they can go further. Their chart will tell you there'll be a low way below. You know, I can't get that low. Yes, it can. Right.
Starting point is 00:31:50 Like the Korean market just had an explosive movement. So it's selling off right now. People are like, I want to buy it because it's just sold off 10%. Remember, it rallied 200%. And so these things can go a lot further. And so no reason to be a hero. Listen, sometimes you're better off waiting for the tide to shift and you know the bulk bear market's over and you don't pick the bottom.
Starting point is 00:32:17 But if you're going to try to pick any bottoms, you better have a really deep bottom with some support underneath it. So where the chart had done a lot of price action below, and the mistake most traders make, and I've made it myself many a time, is you lose your patience waiting for that better entry point. Trading and investing, but more trading, it's all about entry point. If you're patient for the right entry point, you're never really in that much pain, right? You can figure out where your energy point is, where a stop loss would be. If you impulsively buy the thing and it starts going down, you start,
Starting point is 00:32:54 getting so nervous, you end up selling right where you had told yourself in the past you were going to buy it. And we're not in the bear market yet in equities, right? There's, there'd be a long way to go before you say, hey, I'm buying this. I'm buying the destruction. Crypto, when it cracked, if you had looked at the chart and I had a guy out here, one of my traders was like, I was wrong on this. He was right. He was like, no, it's going to 60. It's going to 60. It's going to 60. Well, then I got to 60. I was like, well, you were right. when you're supposed to buy it. And 60 was a great buy. It went right to 80. You don't have to hold it. 60 to 80 is enough to make your year. But you have to have the courage to buy it at 60 if that's
Starting point is 00:33:34 where you said it was going. You know exactly right. I mean, listen, I'm going to I'm going to leave us on this last thought that I want people to think about. And that is the bleakness at the start of the first Iraq war. And by the way, Michael, this is pre-social media. So it's you and me, watching that guy, Peter Arnett, was on top of the building where the bombs are dropping in Baghdad. And we're sitting there watching Wolf Blitzer describe to us on CNN what was happening. The markets were in a tailspin, and Goldman Sachs was laying off people, Michael. And then five, six, eight, nine days later, the war was over.
Starting point is 00:34:19 And people got caught on the wrong side of this thing. and there was a screaming short covering that took place. And so I just want to remind people just to be cautious here. We could be in a protracted war. I'm not saying that we won't be, but we could also be in a negotiated settlement sooner than people think. So we need to be quick about this stuff. Remember Peter Arnett on the rooftop?
Starting point is 00:34:47 And so we were all sitting there watching, no social media. and I was thinking, okay, the markets are going to zero. Eight days later, the markets were way high. And I was at 85 Broad Street, Michael, when they had the ticker tape parade for the Gulf War veterans. Iraqi Freedom, Operation Iraqi Freedom. Schwartzkopf, Colin Powell, I remember all those guys came down. And I was carrying a nephew of mine who happened to be like four. and must have weighed 90 pounds and my son.
Starting point is 00:35:25 I literally think I broke my back that day. Yeah, I remember it like yesterday. Yeah, just a reminder to people, let's not get too pessimistic at the bottom. Shouldn't be embollient at the top, but we have to be very careful because Friday was a bad, bad tape. Even though it was a little bit of jawboning this morning,
Starting point is 00:35:49 it looks like we had another bad tape today. And we just got to be careful with this stuff, you know. But we don't have blood on their streets yet. In equities. Yes. We have them in some equities, but not in the overall index. Yep. All right, Anthony.
Starting point is 00:36:05 Good to be on. Let's keep moving. All right. And we'll be back to you next week. We'll be back on. Thank you, Matt. When a country's productivity cycle is broken, people feel it in their paychecks, their communities,
Starting point is 00:36:18 their futures. What does this mean for individuals, communities, and businesses across the country? Join business leaders, policymakers, and influencers for CGs' national series on the Canadian standard of living, productivity, and innovation. Learn what's driving Canada's productivity decline and discover actionable solutions to reverse it.

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