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America's Inequality Crisis, Trump v Powell, Global Instability, Venezuelan Oil & Bitcoin?

January 14, 20260 comments♥ 0
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01:11Ontario only.Please play responsibly.If you have questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you,please contact Connects Ontario at 1-866-531-2,600 to speak to an advisor.Free of charge.BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with Eye Gaming Ontario.We've got risk of risk.regime change in Iran. We have intervention by the federal government into private equity,
01:37even though they only represent less than two and a half percent of the overall residential housingpurchases that are going to be scapegoated. We have an administration that's threatening theFederal Reserve Chairman with a criminal prosecution. The only story that we're going to tellfor the next 10 years is inequality in how we deal with it. We're in the gilded age. We haven't seeninequality like that in our lifetimes. And it's getting worse by the day. And the people in powerhave done everything they can to continue to skew it that way. Welcome to all things markets with me,Anthony Scaramucci. And I'm Mike Novigratz. All right. So Michael, we are back. Okay. Another wonderfulday of great activity and news. I want to start with Venezuela, if you don't mind. Okay,
02:24sort of where we left off last week. So the president is pushing for oil companies to invest a hundredbillion dollars in Venezuela.And there's also some notion that Venezuela may have a Bitcoin stash.I don't know if that's true or not of what you've heard.A lot of rumor.A lot of rumors about that as well.And we know they have gold.Let's start there, though.
02:45You know, I think one thing that the president did overlook is the trust deficit,though, right?I mean, there's a huge trust deficit.We put all these sanctions on them.And now we're saying, okay, well, we're done with the sanctions.We want you to spend billions of dollars of capital.all, which ties up your capital for 10 to 15 years, go back in there.What say you?
03:04So what you will, what I hope happens and there's a, I don't know, 25% probabilityof this is what happens, is that we allow the VP to stay in power for three to fourmonths with the U.S. monitoring military and, you know, keeping stability.so there's not just a chaos.We have elections, free and fair elections are the best you can, where the U.S. is a monitor.The Maduro party gets voted out unanimously, and they will.And the new president, either the Nobel Prize winner or her competitor in the last election, emerges as the new president.and we're still there to make sure the military stays in shack and that there's a peaceful
04:02transfer of power. If that happened, I think capital will flood in. I actually have beenplenty with my friends trip down there to look at opportunities. I think capital will flood in.The idea that we're going to hold a illegitimate government where the people don't like thegovernment at all. We're capitalists don't like the government at all. And we're going to hold a gunto their head to do what we won. And people are going to want to invest is assonite. It's not clearthinking. And so when you hear Marco Rubio talk, and I don't like Marco Rubio, I'll be clear on that.But he at least in one interview outlined the agenda that I just gave. Hey, we're going to have fair and fairelections. For the future of this podcast, he used to be called the viceroy of Cuba,
04:55Mike Novogratz, okay? We're going to call him the vice right. How does that sound to you?Yeah. I'd like to headbut the viceroy. Me and him in a ring, put us together.I'll even put one hand, arm tie behind my back, and I'm 61. I'm, you know, no, you're a vigorous61. You're a former wrestler. I wouldn't take you on. You're the kind of guy. If I saw yourgirlfriend and the bar, I'd say, let me move away from those two.We'll go back to this.I mean, don't you need a legal structure in Venezuela before Mike Nogras put his capital in it?Why I was very clear, if we get a free and fair election, or at least a decent election
05:37and a non-socialist, non-Moduro party candidate wins, there will be tons of capital thattakes the risk that this is a new regime, especially with the U.S. backing it.What is crazy is Machado.Her policies are so free market.Like, this is what every Republican should love.And so, like, I do think that transition is when you will see people start thinking,hey, this is really a place to invest.You'll have some investment beforehand anticipating that.
06:17But if we keep the old party in place, nothing changed.You know, she may be a capitalist, but is President Trump a capitalist?We're going to have a 10% cap on credit courts.We're going to stop the private equity firms from buying into the housing.So he's a populace right now because he's got midterms coming up and his polling is terrible.this ice theasco in Minneapoliscould not have come at a worse time for his poll numbersAmericans don't appreciate mass guys shooting people
06:53and you can look at the videolike we all have eyeswe all watch the videothe Republican or the MAGA sideis speeding it up on like eight acts to saywell look how fast the car was drivingyou know like we're not stupidand so I think you're going to continue to see the president
07:11I mean, this idea of 10% cap on credit cards is word for word from Bernie Sanders.Right.Frankly, to be really clear to the listeners, the executive side doesn't have any authorityon the interest rates and credit cards.That would be a piece of legislation.Bernie's been trying to pass it for a couple of years.Right.Well, I mean, you know, and I've said this to me when I work for Donald Trump,
07:33we used to go to Bernie Sanders rallies because they were more or less saying the same thingand they were more or less attracting the same people.Populism, it sort of goes 180 and then it circles around and meets each other at the other side.But, Mike, I want to talk to you about this for a second, okay, because this is from realtor.com.And I want you to really think about it before you answer.The average price of the home, the median price, the middle point of the price, I should say, is $432,000.If you want to buy that home and you don't want to be house poor, Michael, you got to make a minimumof them, $131,000 a year. The median income in the United States is $84,000. We're $50,000 away from
08:21that mark. So that means half the people, if they're pushing themselves to buy a home like that,they're missing dental appointments, they're missing medication, they're missing a few,they've got hand-me-down clothing. So step back and answer the question for me about that.that and populism because I understand what the president wants to do.I'm going to give him credit for trying something.But is it the right thing?The only story that we're going to tell for the next 10 years is inequality in how we deal with it.Right.
09:00We are in the Gilded Age.We have never seen any in our lifetimes, right?The last time we signed inequality like this was the Gilded Age, right?We haven't seen inequality like that.our lifetimes. And it's getting worse by the day, right? Elon must be becoming a trillionaireat one point. That's just symbolic of just how bad the inequality is. And the people in powerhave done everything they can to continue to skew it that way. Part of it was the natural evolutionof this technology revolution that we had. And so let's not even blame people why it's there.
09:34Let's just assume it's there. How we deal with that is going to literally determine, you know,Is America a wonderful place to live or not?I want to make you economic, Zor.How would you deal with it?It's complicated, right?So first of all, you have to observe the problem.We have a real inequality problem.We have, we're already $40 trillion in debt.
10:00And so we just can't keep giving away money.So we need to tax more or at least have a tax system that's fair.Right?Like, what would I do on tax?I'd start thinking of things like step up basis.Forget about it.Like I'd start with the premise of like what do Americans think is fair?Like what goes into the DNA of Americans?
10:22Like as much as conceptually a wealth tax makes sense, it's not an American thing.We have real estate taxes already.That's a wealth tax.But I wouldn't start with the wealth tax.I would capital gains and income be the same level, right?I'd have a total cap on total taxes.between federal, state, and local at 50%,and all one should give away more than 50% of their income.
10:46I would make Gratz illegal, right?Like, so what's a grad?Grat is a way that I can put assets in a trust,in a pre-trust, have those assets appreciate,and have all the appreciation go into a trust for my children,never having to pay the inheritance tax.I would lower the inheritance tax to some level,but have no exceptions.
11:11So instead of it being 50, 60%,maybe it's a 25% inherited this text,but everyone has to pay it.That's an American ideal, right?That everyone gets a fair shot.We all start on the fair,the same starting line.And we created this country
11:26not to be a monarchy, right?Like in England, in the aristocratic families,they still have, the oldest son gets everythingso you keep the concentration of wealth.Like I was shocked when I found that still exists in 2020 or 2006.You know, that's not an American ideal.And so I think there's a lot of things we can do just under fairness that will raise a lot of taxes.And in the other side, you have to cut spending.
11:57You have to be smart of where you spend.Like Trump is going to increase military spending by a trillion and a half dollars.Like that's insanity.It's insanity.WeThe money we're spending on ice is insanityListen, Obama deported three million peopleDuring his term without ice
12:17You know, it's a new budgetICE's budget's now bigger than the MarinesAnd so this performativeSpending andYou know, we brought in Elon Musk to cutWaste, fraud, and abuse and he failed.He did zero. And now he's tweetinglike a maniac, you know,
12:35about how much waste, fraud, and abuse.it is. When he was there, he did nothing because he was unhinged.Right. And so what is frustrating to watch and like we're in a week where Iran could fallin Venezuela is in the process of falling, two stunning successes for any president,two defining successes for any president. And Trump is polluting them all,polluting his winds with horseshit,horseshit with ice,horseshit with these populist laws
13:12and he has no ability to...He's tweeting out that he's acting president of Venezuela.Did you see that on Truth Social?He's got a picture of himand says he's acting president of Venezuela.He's going to tweet out when he picks the next Fed chair,he's going to tweet out on the acting Fed Sheet.He let the payroll numbers out early
13:32and say, someone asked them about him, he says,hey, when I get the numbers, I tweet him.Like, no regret, no all in a mistake.I mean, it's like we're, we've moved into the insanity.The, the, the, the, there was a New York Times interview,five New York Times reporters interviewing him.It's on video.And so he wanted it out there.
13:56And it literally is a man who thinks there's no boundaries and who's justwaxing.poetic like a, you know, it's, it's almost like the movie, uh, King Lear or the play King Lear,uh, or Ron was the great Japanese version of it, where the man, the king goes mad and we've gotthe mad king. And none of the people around him, Susie Wiles or J.D. Vance or PeterTeal or any is saying a damn thing because they're either benefiting or scared or their policiesare being enacted. And so finally, you had Tom Till, and so finally had Tom Till,Hillis said, no, no, no, no, no, no.
14:35We're not doing this with Chairman Powell.I'm not going to approve anybody for Fed Governor or new chief, and you need me.So you want to try to bring up bogus charges on the current Fed governor to pressure him to move rates?Not on my watch.So we finally had a Republican, of course, he's not running again, with Stones, who said enough.there have been so few Republicans who have put themselves in harm's way to say this is an American,this is not what I believe in.And again, I'm giving Trump all the credit for the shit he's doing that's good.
15:11But the stuff that he's going that's bad, we've, and I think this last two weeks, in some ways, is the beginning of the end.I think Jady Vance's career is kaput after his performance on the Minneapolis stuff.He looked like just a buffoon.I've been saying that for six months.I mean, Trump will put him through the woodshipper.He's not going anywhere.But go back to the markets for a second because you got a couple things here because I know you look at this stuff.9.3 million Americans, 5.7% of the workforce now hold multiple jobs.
15:50Okay, that's the highest number in the nation's history, okay?since we've been recording this.So the country is struggling, Michael.Okay, now the haves are not struggling.I understand that.But the have-nots are struggling, and they come after the haves eventually.So square that with what's going on in the stock market and the overall market.It's the same thing that happened during the Biden administration.
16:15The economy numbers, the macro numbers were okay, and the stock market ended on the highs,but most people in America didn't feel it.and it's just the same thing in the Trump administration.Stocks all-time high today.Looks like they're going to break $7,000 on the S&Pand we're going to go much higher, right?Economy is strong.I think it's going to get stronger.
16:37And most Americans don't feel it.Affordability gets harder and harder and harder.And again, you asked me earlier on, what do you do?You, there's going to, we already have UBIin America, right? Like, we're not a complete capitalist society, right? Between federal, state,local, we're about 35, 40 percent in tax that gets spent on people. We need to learn how to spendthat much more efficiently. I would love a more direct transfer of wealth to people, not through thegovernment, but directly. It's one of the things that crypto wallets could help with. But I think we're
17:22going to need some version of UBI in this transition into this AI world.We haven't even talked about what AI is going to do.It's a complicated world.It's going to get more complicated.And we have politics that don't allow nuance.So if I sat in, I'm in the war room with you.I'm going to take you back to your days at Fortress and you're a macro trader.And I sit down with you and I say, we've got.
17:52risk of regime change in Iran, and again, risk or opportunity, let's say more opportunitypotentially than risk. We have intervention by the federal government into private equity,even though they only represent less than two and a half percent of the overall residentialhousing purchases that are going to be scapegoated. We have an administration that's threateningthe Federal Reserve chairman with a criminal prosecution. Okay. You and I have a,we're talking about Lloyd Blankfine's book. When I finished his book last week, I was like,well, that was a rules-based world. And it was still a crazy world. But now we're in apost-rules-based world. But I'm in the investment meeting with you. And so what are the
18:38right things to buy, Mike? Listen, it's why people are selling the dollar. They're buying gold.They're buying silver. They're buying copper. Right. Hard assets. Real estate, right, is a hard asset.You want to be in hard assets.You want to be nimble.I was talking to one of my friends who also has four kids,and I was like, you know, our kids are lucky that their dads spent their whole careerspreparing themselves for chaos because managing family wealth in the next 15 years is going to be brutal.Like, I just gave you what I think is the right portfolio.
19:15That could change, right?What goes wrong in the first quarter to that portfolio?you know what everyone's already getting leaning short the dollaru.s economic data picks up much stronger than you thinkpal stays he pals the fed share for a couple more meetings and he doesn'tcut rates and even though we all think kevin warsh or kevin has it or or rick reader isgoing to be a do do the president's bidding dove they look at the world they're likeyeah i i i just can't i can't i can't cut rates uh and all of a sudden the dollar rallies
19:51That's not my base case, but I could easily see that happening.And so I think we're going to be in this hyper volatility mindset.Maybe the vol numbers don't see hypervall.We're going to have to be very quick to be able to pivot and change as the facts change.But right now, we're printing too many dollars.We have too much debt.And we're going to debase the currency.And so that's gold, silver.
20:20hopefully Bitcoin at one pointif it ever eats through all these sellers.What's so frustrating about being a BitcoinerisI told this storyeight months ago, six months ago and four months agoand I said, hey, you got my gold, silver, andI had some gold, some silver, and a lot of Bitcoin.
20:41I should have had a lot of gold, a lot of silver, and a little Bitcoin.Like Bitcoin didn't work.I mean, but yeah, but Bitcoin has outperformed gold over two years.underperformed by 45%.I'm talking about this last chapter of realsix months.Yeah.And I think that's because a bunch of whales are selling,
20:59and I believe we'll eat through them at one pointand then we'll play catch up.So, but Mike, I want you to think about this for a secondbecause you're saying somethingthat it's hard for me to believe.And I'm also saying it, by the way,I think you and I have been anesthetizedby what's going on, said different
21:20if it was 1995, and you and I are at Goldman Sachs, and Bill Clinton said he's bringing a criminalprosecution against Alan Greenspan because he's not doing his bidding.I think the markets would have had a totally different reaction to that.Yeah, I think you're so interesting.Are we anesthetized now of this new post-rules?I think the world has gotten used to the fact that half of what comes out of Trump's mouth is,a test balloon bullshit, right?You're not really going to, you know,
21:57this is going to be a show trial,but Powell will be out way before even there's a hearing,and this is for politics and publicity.I mean, it's kind of rich.They're saying, well, you spent too much on rebuilding the Fedand you didn't have permission.And, oh, I just ripped down the whole East Wingwithout permission either.
22:22I mean, like, the hypocrisy is, it would be funny if it wasn't our country.I mean, it's like we're literally in lunacy land.And, you know, we've a long way to go with somebody.Like, Anthony, you were there, right?At least for 11 days.Yeah, but I was there for a year.You know, my mistake was that I didn't, you equivocal, you keep moving thegoalpost, Michael. You understand what I'm saying? And we're doing that economically. Our economists are
22:55doing that. Our Fed watchers are doing that. We're saying, okay, that's not normal, but let's move thego coast because maybe 75% of it won't happen. 50% of it won't happen. But what if some stuffreally starts to happen? Well, the question is, are we at that? What was in the famous trial,McCarthy, he said, is there no decency? Are we at that moment with what we just saw in Minneapolis?What we're seeing with Trump's behavior where Republican senators are going to say,Republican congressmen are going to say, I'm going to D.C. in about an hour to ask a lot ofthese questions. Are we at that point where they're going to say, this is not America?Because it really becomes a Republican and business community responsibility to at one point,
23:43say, we push the goalpost too far.Like, we've got to push them back.So just so you know, it was Joseph Welch's question to McCarthy in 1954.He turned to McCarthy and said, have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last?Have you no sense of decency?If you have done enough.Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last?And just a reminder, Harry,
24:13Truman despised Dwight Eisenhower, despised him.He loved him during the war.He made him the Supreme Commander of NATO after the war.But Truman could not understand how the Republican president,five-star general with all of his power, didn't put down McCarthy.And so he allowed McCarthy to continue to bubble up.And, you know, so here we are.Will that happen here?
24:43I were, you know, we'll see.I'm going to, next week we'll talk about what I learned in D.C.The obvious answer is probably not because it hasn't happened until yes.It did feel a little different over the last few days.Like I think, I haven't seen the recent polling on what people think about Minneapolis,but I would bet you a super majority of Americans,i.e. 70 plus percent are disgusted by it.And that doesn't vote well for, you know, the MAGA cause.
25:21And, you know, listen, Trump's not, Trump's an amazing politician.He will, he will, if he asks you, he'll throw Christine Ome under the bus, he'll pivot, he'll, you know, like he.And so that doesn't mean, you know, it's a knockout blow by any stretch.we got a lot of rounds before the midterms,let alone before his term is out.But what scared me, Anthony,was the first time in my life,having watched all the different CNBCs and Foxes
25:51and of these Republicans and Democratslooking at the exact same picturesaying completely different things.And like, are you guys insane?Is that there is a higher chancethat I ever thought it possiblethat we're going to have the midtermsand one team's going to win by a lot
26:10and the other team's going to say,oh, those results don't count.You guys cheated.And they're going to fly in the FBIand they're going to take the voting machinesand say, oh, we just checked them ourselves.Or you guys did cheat.I mean, Trump Bernie said they made a mistake
26:22not getting the voting machines in the 2020 election.And so I think that probably the possibilityof us really losing democracyis higher than it's ever been in my life.Yeah, listen.I mean, we're on.we're on a nice edge. And what I don't get about the markets is it's not factored in themarkets. And I hope I'm wrong about it. And I hope that, you know, things normalize in some sense
26:48of way, but it doesn't feel that way. But remember, remember when you're devaluing your currency,right, stocks go higher, commodities go higher, real assets go higher. So if you told me,the Iranian currency is going to be worth 70% less than a week.The stock market will go higher, not lower, because it's the no-shall.Right?I'm with you.So we're going to wrap here, but before we wrap, this is three rapid-fire questions.And it's a yes or no, the first one.
27:24Anything happened this week that change your investment thesis on things like Bitcoin or gold or your macro thesis?No, matter of fact, in some ways, this instability help refuel the weak dollar.What's disappointing is I think people are giving up on the U.S. a little bit, but then they were like,oh, I can't come up to the U.S. because all the technology growth happens in the U.S.And so there's going to be a schizophrenia here for a while, but so not really.Nothing saves.Okay.And then the second question is what would have to happen for?
28:01for there to be a catalytic upward move in Bitcoin that we haven't seen?I think technically we got to take out 104, 105 to stay there for a week.And then I think you'll see an amazing short recovery.Like, that could happen because we get HACIT and he says I'm cut raise to 2%.It could happen because Trump says, hey, we always said we were going to buy some Bitcoinas long as it was, you know, budget neutral.we're going to sell a little gold to buy Bitcoin, right?But what if, I mean, does Venezuela have any Bitcoin, or is that just a rumor?
28:38So the rumor was that the way they were getting around sanctions, and I'm like besmirchingTether here, this is just rumor, was that they were using Tether. Tether was buying, you know,the Bitcoin, and they had accumulated this large stack of Bitcoin, and that it was being sold,moved offshore and sold to help for the defense and help for, you know, just moving it around in the last few weeks.I am, that's pure rumor.I think it's mostly fantasy.I have no idea, but I wouldn't, I wouldn't buy into the rumor.But there's no, there's no catalyst in your mind right now over the next two months, say, that drives Bitcoin higher, other than just the whale stopped selling.
29:28the gamut trade sort of feed.Let me be really clear.One of the reason I'm going to D.C. is because this week we're supposed to get a vote on market structure on Thursday.And I want to go meet with a bunch of people, Democrats or Republicans, to make my pitch on why it's so important they pass this bill.I really do think it's important.I think it's important for Democrats because that takes crypto off the political dice.and so you're not going to have every crypto guy try to fund every Republican because they hate Gary Gensler, right?And this was supposed to be a technology platform.
30:06It should be bipartisan.Like the internet wasn't Republican or Democrat, nor should crypto be.So that's my stance, and I'm going to try to make that loud and clear.If that bill passes, you are going to see in the next four months every major trade.company come rushing in.I was literally calledor got an email onThursday by the CEO of one of the
30:33biggest banks in the world. Hey, can you fly to Europeand meet with me. I need to talk crypto.I was like,yeah, maybe.We are in partnershipat Galaxy, we're in partnershipdiscussions withfour or five major
30:49players. You sawMorgan Stanley came out with their announcement.It will not surprise me,if a J.P. Morgan like company is actually trading spot Bitcoin in the next three months, right?The headhunters are calling our guys to try to hire them to go to places that never thoughtthey'd trade, not just the ETIP put the spot. So that could be the most seminal thing that you said.That is, that's not in the marketplace right now. And so hopefully people will pick up on thatfor more podcasts. My last, the third question, and the last question, if,
31:25Mike Novogratz was up for the Fed chairmanshipand he was watching hispredecessorbe potentially criminally indicted by the personwho is appointing him Fed chair.Would he take the job?You know, probably not.Probably not.
31:46Or you take the job and say,hey, listen, I really believe in the independence of the Fedand you're going to put me in this spotand I'm going to make the decisions I make.I'm scared that I wouldn't be scared that I'm going to get thrown in jail.I just don't think he'd pick me if I said that.And so one of the thesis that a really smart friend of mine said today is like,you know, I don't think Trump really wants to throw Powell in jail.
32:08He wants to do this as a purity test to see of his three candidates who says what.Yeah, 100%.Well, he said that on CNBC this morning.I shouldn't watch you.I missed you.Yeah.Well, that's why I got the suit on, brother.I said, well, that's exactly what he's doing.
32:22He's just trying to scare the daylights out of everybody.And then he wants to see who's going to still be with him.Because he wants to send out a tweet where he's the acting Fed share,like he just sent out a tweet where he's the acting president of Venezuela.I know the son of a bitch.I know what he's capable of.Let me ask you one last question before you cut me up.So you've had a pretty similar thesis to me.
32:44Have your thesis changed?You got $100.How are you investing it?Well, you know, I'm with you on everything except for the weaker dollar.I had this conversation with Lee Cooperman in March of 2020.Lee called me and said the world's coming to an end.Lee Cooperman, the hardest working man in finance.Yeah, exactly, exactly.
33:08And a former one of your partners at Goldman and a dear friend of mine, my old boss at Goldman,I said, Lee, you're being too bearish.They're going to ram down rates.And he says, no, no, the whole thing is going to unravel.We're going to be locked in this COVID thing forever.And I'm getting bearish.And I think the problem is it looks like the dollar should go lower.Okay.
33:31And it may go lower temporarily and so forth.But the investments are still going to flow into the U.S.because it's the only game in town for growth, Mike.That's my only counterpoint or my counterfoil to what you're saying.All right.And Galaxy better do it.well because I got a lot of money at Galaxy.So I'll just leave you with that thought, okay?
33:52We're working hard.Don't let us down, Novigrats.All right, we'll see you in the next episode.Thanks.When a country's productivity cycle is broken, people feel it in their paychecks, their communities, their futures.What does this mean for individuals, communities, and businesses across the country?Join business leaders, policymakers, and influencers for CGs national series on the Canadianstandard of living, productivity, and energy.
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