Open Book with Anthony Scaramucci - Trump Tariffs Overturned, $56T Debt Surge, AI Replacing Workers & Fed Cuts Debate

Episode Date: February 25, 2026

Welcome back to All Things Markets — Today, Mike Novogratz and I are ripping into the big stuff: tariffs getting struck down, a potential $56 trillion national debt, and whether the bond market is just calmly whistling past the fiscal graveyard. Mike and I debate Fed cuts, the AI labor shock that could upend the middle class, and why baby boomers may go down as the most overrepresented — and self-interested — generation in modern political history. Buckle up — this one’s about power, money, and what kind of future we’re actually building. Michael Novogratz is the Founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital. He was formerly a Partner and President of Fortress Investment Group LLC. Mr. Novogratz served on the New York Federal Reserve’s Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets from 2012 to 2015. He serves as the Chairman of The Bail Project and has made criminal justice reform a focus of his family’s foundation. Follow Anthony on X: https://x.com/Scaramucci Follow Novo on X: https://x.com/novogratz Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm, and founder and chairman of SALT, a global thought leadership forum and venture studio. Pre-order my next book, All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, out on the 17th of September in the UK and the 22nd of September in the US: ⁠https://linktr.ee/anthonyscaramucci⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Conditions apply. You have debt heading to 120% of GDP over the last 15 years. the Fed spent its time debasing the U.S. dollar. I just find it to be a real lack of self-awareness. When I look at the boomers, it has been the most selfish generation in the history of America. When they went into power, when they were in their 30s, and roughly child poverty, and 60% of seniors lived under the poverty line. Fast forward 40 years, they've been in power that long. We still have 16% of kids under the poverty line, but only 3% of seniors under the poverty line. In essence, they took the apple, and instead of giving it to their grandchild,

they ate at themselves. You can look at so many statistics of how this generation got fat. They stole, they've left this new generation, as you said, $41 trillion going to $56 trillion in debt. And they should be ashamed of themselves, quite frankly. Welcome to all things markets. I'm Anthony Scaramucci. And I'm Mike Novigratz. Michael, a lot is going on, Michael. Six to three Supreme Court decision. The court struck down the global tariffs, or at least a good portion of them, just reminding people, some tariffs were legislatively mandated by Congress,

the ones that weren't, particularly the ones against China in February of 2025, have been struck down. We're talking about right now about $135, $140 million worth of tariffs, Michael. What do you think? Any impact on the markets? Does it change anything in your point of view? You know, it's so interesting. I do think it changes things. You got geopolitics on the one hand, and you've got AI on the other, and it is making investing really complicated.

We've been in a really tight range in the stock market, even though underneath there's been huge movements. Listen, what's going to happen with the tariffs? People are going to get rebates. That's going to happen, and it's going to take a long, you know, some period of time. People are going to sue. It's going to be a mess. but slowly those rebates are a fiscal stimulus, right? And so it's larger trade deficit, larger budget deficit,

stronger economy. What's weird is the taxes on the consumer, but the rebate comes to the corporate. And so that's not great in terms of the political messaging around it and the reality of it. But I think we're going to have a similar, economy is still strong, even a little stronger, makes it a little tougher for the Fed to cut, though I think they still will because you still have, I think, inflation heading in the right direction.

And, you know, the yield curve should get a little steeper. The dollar should sell off as we're going to need to have, you know, cheaper product to be more competitive. Why not the clear, I mean, you know, again, it's not a political show. It's more about markets, but why not declare victory? and say, hey, I use my muscle to push some people around. We're going to go back to the other tariffs. I'm going to give the rebate, which will be a stimulus going into the midterms, which help his party.

Why do you think the president is tripling down on this whole tariff idea, knowing full well that this new Section 122 tariff will also likely get shrugged down because it doesn't meet the balance of payment test that he's supposed to have? Listen, you know Donald Trump better than I do, certainly. But his sense of self has only grown since he's been in this second term, as evidenced by the eight different buildings he once named after him. And so losing doesn't seem to be an option for him. Having people, quote, disloyal often means they're stupid and, you know,

they don't know what they're thinking about. And so like the reaction to this was almost textbook what this administration has been doing, period. And so it's not necessarily rational, it's not necessarily economic. I said this on the last podcast. Like the tariffs were actually a pretty interesting way to shift the balance from income taxes to some form of consumer tax. And they were raising a ton of revenue. And so when Trump would say things like we could get rid of the income tax by switching against all these tariffs, he wasn't wrong.

It's just you got to be straightforward with who's going to pay the cost of those tariffs and where the impact's going to happen. And right now, you know, polling is not going well. Kalshi has the Republicans at less than 15% in the midterms. That's not a prediction. That's a market. Right. Hence it's a prediction market. Right.

I mean, all right. So, but, but you're, you're still calling for how many rates, cuts by the end of the year? You know, listen, 23 basis points is priced in to the September, you know, a SOFER contract, right? And so that's one priced in. I think you're definitely going to get one because Warsh is going to come in and he's kind of almost pre-committed to that one. And the market is probably fairly priced here. if it slows down a little bit and he sees some light, he'll cut twice. I think if you're Kevin Moore, you want to get rates to where you think the equilibrium is and then pause, right? Your story has been, I disagree with Powell on what equilibrium is and how fast he could have cut. Therefore, I want to get there.

And then we're going to process things the same way, right? We're going to look at all the data and make decisions based on forward-looking data. he just thinks we were at the wrong level. And so I do think he'll cut fast. So, so in the in the meantime, it looks like, and again, I'm just guessing, $135 billion getting returned either to the corporations or the individuals. It's very hard as an individual. I look through it. You know, I bought some wine from France. It was held up at customs, Michael. And they said I needed to spend $535 and duties to get the wine in, which of course I did. And now if I want to file for the refund, good luck to you because it's very Byzantine in terms of how that goes. But that money's coming back to a lot of people.

And the CBO, something you're very familiar with from your time working in Washington, is saying that by 2036, which is not a long time from now, 10 years, Michael, we're going to have a budget deficit that is exceeded. This is the national debt, excuse me. The national debt of the United States is going to be $56 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. So that's going to be north of 125% of the GDP. What, say you, as we're hitting a $3 trillion budget deficit,

operating deficit by 2036? You know, there's a thing called the Minsky moment where confidence just a evaporates. You don't know where it is and then it happens. You know, at one point, the bond market says, I'm not going to finance that deficit. At one point, your foreign friends say, I'm not going to finance that deficit. We're not there yet, right? Bond market's well-behaved. And Besson can adjust where he issues and the Fed can buy. So this dance can go on a lot longer than we think it can. but there's a breaking point somewhere. And when it breaks,

low of a whole, it gets really ugly. You know, Ken Rogaoff, I think, and then Ray Dalio, they all talked at one point in the O.A. crises and the aftermath of the OA crises

of when you have this blowup of a deficit and blow up of debt, how can you have a, a kind of a perfect de-leveraging or a beautiful de-leveraging? And it's really complicated, where you've got to run inflation a little bit over the 2%.

You've won 3, 3.5%, try to convince people it's really only 2% and slowly eat away your debt while you get growth going again. It's such a hard plane to land on a very small runway, and we're not even close at this point. The politics make it almost impossible. If you look at what, and you said this on the last podcast,

we were going to cut this from this branch, this from this department, this from this department, and none of the cuts got me. Right. Well, but Michael, you've been doing this for 40 years, me too, right? So it combined 80 years roughly. The markets have priced this in. The markets are nonchalant about it.

The markets are nonchalant about it because it hasn't bit yet. So like I traded my first kind of great crises. Great. It's always painful to use the word great because it's great as a trader if you're on the right side of it. But it's terrible for the people in the countries you're dealing with. So when Thailand, Indonesia, Korea all blew up in 97, 98, right? It was good, good, good, good, good, very bad. I call those paradigm shifts, right?

They had quasi-fixed currencies pegged to a basket of the dollar or pegged to the dollar itself. And they had tons of capital coming in because it was the Asian miracle. And then people realized, whoa, there's too much debt. And then all the capital ran away. And they had monster currency to valuations. GDP collapsed. you know, fighting in the streets, dogs and cats living together, and then it takes a while to kind of rebuild and start going again. Like, we haven't had that in the developed world in a long time,

but we're heading towards that, period. Is there a trait? If Mike Novogratz, Anthony Scaramucci got together and said, okay, here's a product that we're going to deliver to you that protects you from this crisis. What would be in that portfolio? Yeah, so the, the The problem, of course, is when you buy insurance, insurance gets expensive until you need it, right? So, but the trades you want on are yield curve steepers, right? That funding yourselves out 10 years should be more expensive because there's more risk that it's going to be a really shitty environment that we're going to have to borrow too much than it is, say, in two years.

Like, we kind of know what we need to borrow. But, and so yield curve steepeners is one of them. Being short the dollar against something, right, against gold, against silver, against, I think gold and silver had their highs this year, but against a basket of other things. Right now, the trade du jour is long the Chinese remandb, long of the Mexican peso. I mean, look at Mexico had terrible writing and terrorism all over, you know, Halisco and that whole part of Mexico. And the currency's unchanged. That's how strong the mex peso is right now. So Brazil, mex, a basket of Korea, Taiwan, and China,

seem to be a really good place to have currency exposure right now. So I'm going to, I'm going to paint a scenario for you because we always have to assess probabilities. We have $15 trillion of debt that needs to be refinanced from June of 2006 to the end of 2007. So in an 18-month period of time, we're going to refinance $15 trillion of debt. What happens if there's some disorder in a treasury auction while we're doing that, right? Bonds down, stocks down. It's complicated. The dollar should be down, but sometimes when people are panicked, they go flight to the quality first, right? Bitcoin should go up, but it could go down if it goes down with stocks. You know, what's so complicated is if there was a nuclear bomb that went off somewhere,

traditionally just buy me the dollar, buy me treasuries. That probably, still is the reaction function, but it might not be because of our standing in the world and where we are with this debt. But it probably still is. But that's where, you know, even though I think gold topped, maybe it's gold, right? Like, you know, like every once at all, there's another surge. The problem is, Anthony, is waiting for those crises is like waiting for Godot. It might be a year and that damn subway might not be for three years or four years or five years. So, Michael, you go to Washington a lot. Okay, you know, I have an allergic reaction.

When I go to Washington, I break out a knives. God forbid I could even possibly lose my hair, which, you know, is a very important asset to me. When I talk to these public servants about the deficit, they look at me like, yeah, you know, deficits don't matter. We can continue on this deficit chain forever. Do you get that feeling from our public servants when you take that? talk to them or you have any that are like, wow, you know, we should be worried about the stuff that I'm talking about? There is a core group of, you know, politicians down in D.C. You know, I'm thinking of guys like French Hill, the congressman from Arkansas. He's a Republican.

You know, Cory Booker, even here in New Jersey, gets it. There's a lot of people that get it that know we got to get our fiscal house in order. They also all recognize, like Scott, Yes, and he gets it. And even though he gets it, 100%, you just look at how hard the politics of it are when we have a world where the haves and the have-nots seem to get wider by the day. I mean, I look at what Mondami is trying to do in New York. And like my heart goes with them and my brain wants to throw up on them. We just spend too much money to spend more. We have a shrinking population, yet our budget is going up. We have a dramatic. dramatically shrinking school population, and yet our budget is going up and we're getting lesser results. And so New York City spends too much money. And if you want to agree with Mandami, you can say, let's take the same amount of money, which is too much and reallocate where we spend it. That would be a logical, at least, debate, but no one wants to do that. They just want to spend more. And so he looked at the budget and said, you're not going to give me my tax increases.

I'm going to throw a temper tantrum and try to play blackmail and raise your property taxes. Instead of saying maybe the population and the market is telling me I can't have more, that I need to do more with less. And until we get a shift in mindset on both the Republicans, because the Republicans talk a big game of it and don't do shit, and the Democrats don't even talk that game, we need a shift of mindset and saying, hey, we have all these tools, we need to do more with less at a government level.

And it's just not in how politicians think. They like to spend. So, Michael, I'm from the future. I'm from June of 2008, which is two short years from now. And I say to you, Michael, lots of white-collar middle-income jobs have been cut because we've had this AI revolution, this gigantic AI, and these companies don't need these people anymore, they can just have the tasks done by AI now. Our economy is a consumption-based economy. You know that, I know that 68 to 70% of the GDP is coming from consumer spending. But middle-class incomes. I'm defining that between 50,000 and 150,000,

they buy houses and cars and subscriptions and streaming services. And then wipe doubt, Michael. Yeah. So if you look at something like red lobster, right, which is a restaurant that that demographic used to go to, right? It's not fast food. It's nicer than that. It's mid-price raised. It's affordable. Their sales are plummeting. Like that group is suffering. And you can see it in their consumption behaviors. All the consumption is now coming from the very elite, right? Go to prod and a suit is $4,000 to most people in America. That's seems just insanity, right? And there's lineups at Prada. And so, I mean, there's a real problem here. And that's got to get addressed at one point. The point I'm getting to, though, there's no

historical precedent for what I'm saying. Ironically, the retail stocked, I can cut 40% of my workforce. It'll improve my profitability. The retail stock will go up. But now with 40% of the workforce cut, the consumption is going to go down. I had a fascinating. I was in Jackson Hole. We did a podcast, a couple days afterwards, I had like three fascinating conversations. Two were with crypto and tech company CEOs. And the aha moment I had. And it's funny because I had lunch eight, nine weeks ago with the CEO of Bank of New York and a bunch of other people. And he had told me that at Bank of New York, they're already looking at AI agents as employees with employee numbers and treating them. They had a very few of them. It's somewhat symbolic.

And these other two CEOs said after Claude Coe, they were like, wait a minute. Their aha moment, and it's now my aha moment, I stole it from them, was instead of looking at AI to make each person more productive, look at, hey, Galaxy's got 122 new jobs we're trying to hire for. Look at each job and say, can you do it with an agent? And then that agent becomes an employee working for a captain. And so you might have a senior engineer that's got 11 agents working for him. And he needs to think of them like employees. That's such a radical idea because all of a sudden, instead of hiring 60 people, you're hiring six, maybe. And then of course, even though you don't want to think this way, the employees you have, you're like, well, I see, what's his job description?

What's his job description? And you're going to see, I mean, this guy, because he had to, because the margin on his business was going down, was telling me he was going to cut 40% of his staff. in three months and thought he was going to get double the productivity. So those conversations first got me scared of like, wow, we hit it. I said this last time, this Claude Cod Code moment of two months ago, whatever, six weeks ago, really has shifted the intensity and the anxiety of every CEO I've ever spoken to. right the we went from oh shit to all hands on deck this is you know we got to move we got to move fast and then I had a conversation with my daughter who had been working on an AI startup for a long time

and decided she she can't couldn't figure the lane out but she's an anthropologist and a very smart woman right she studied anthropology visual anthropology thinking about it and she was asking all these questions about like why why are we doing this like what's the purpose like and it got me thinking because we fear the Chinese so much, this is existential. We've got to get AGI before they do. That there's no regulation. There's no slowdown on how fast this is going. And who's driving it, right? You got Zuckerberg at one point, Elon Musk at one point. You got Sam Altman, you know, who are all solely financially driven. And so like we're handing over in essence, the future of humanity in lots of ways to unelected, financially driven,

you know, guys whose morals might or might not agree with yours, or ethics might or might not agree with yours. And it's happening so fast, it feels almost like what the F is going on here. And we don't have a president who thinks that way to say, let me slow things down and, right, maybe a different president at a different time would be like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. let's have a real idea of what this does for the citizens of our country. Like, let's answer the why.

We haven't answered the why other than productivity is good. And what we're learning is in late stage capital, and productivity, maybe shouldn't be the only goal because it's going to put everyone out of work. Henry Ford used to say that all the time. I need to lease people like, my employees need to be rich enough to buy my car. Anyway, it's just got me very worried,

kind of what I worried as a businessman, but also worried as a citizen. Yeah, I mean, I'm glad you're addressing this because to me, we need more people talking about it because you're going to have to get a solution in place for some of this stuff, and we're going to have to think about it not only as business people. And, you know, I don't know how you feel about breaking up the tech companies or not breaking up the tech companies, but let's just face it, you know, objectively, there's a tremendous amount of consolidation of power, Michael. and a lot of times when you have that kind of consolidation of power at a corporate level,

it's not great for the consumer. Let's just put it down with. If you looked at what Zuckerberg just committed to spend on politics, right? So he had spent a lot of money in the 2020 election on free and fair elections, right? $300 million. That's well documented. The criticism was that was for Democrats. It was a, I know the organization he gave to.

It is a bipartisan organization. But you could argue voter reg and voter safety and voter access to polls has traditionally been a democratic idea. I think the Democrats have to say work for democracy. And it's a democratic idea because it's a democracy idea. But nonetheless, now he's spending, I think the number was you can Google it real quick, 65 million or maybe 200 million. Some large, large number he just committed. all lobbying AI in essence, kind of like a pack

to support politicians that are pro-AI. And so you're right, the Consolidative Power. There's so much money at that elite level. They can buy elections like that. And you saw what Elon did

in the last presidential election with $250 million. That's a small fraction of his $800 billion. Yeah, no, it's been incredible. I've been doing research for a new book. Since Citizens United,

Michael, we had prior to Citizens United, the Supreme Court case that allowed unlimited funding. You had $452 million that went into these political action committees, post-citizens United $6.5 billion. So it's, you know, we'd just be just crazy. I remember Anthony, because John Corzum was my boss and I love the man, and he was the head of the DSCC, the Democratic Senate campaign committee. So his job was to raise money for the other Senate races and pick people to run for Senate. And so I was a young guy at Fortress and he said, do me a favorite meet with this guy, Senator ABC.

And the most you could give him was $2,300. And me and my partner would give $2,300 each. And you'd have a senator come to your office and you'd spend 35 minutes. And middle class, I'm like, calling my mom. Dude, I just met with the senator. And after about six months of it, Ben Sass on, line four, I'd be like, call them back. They all called all the time. Yeah. Well, it's a money train. $4,600. It wasn't $40,000. It was $4,600. Well, it is $40,000 now, though. I mean, that's the thing. And maybe you'd, you'd do a fundraiser for them. And what I learned was political access was actually cheap as shit. Yeah, exactly. And I didn't have any of the lobby for at that point. I just loved policy and politics as a macro guidance.

That's the widget of our machine, right? And so for me, it was really interesting. But the real takeaway was access isn't expensive. And then you do Citizens United and it got more expensive, but paining the ass as a donor. Because you used to be capped. The total you could give in any cycle was $234,000. So like, that's the most.

Now you got people coming in and, you know, you meet with a guy running for governor. And it's like, well, yeah, you're hoping he says he wants, And you can give him $200,000. I say, I don't want to give it $200. I want to give it $200. I've had those conversations. All right.

Well, I want to, we have five minutes left to go. I want to switch to crypto for a second. Minneapolis Fed President Neil Cashkari. He's called crypto utterly useless. You know him, I know him. He's dismissed stable coins as... I never liked them. He's an old Coleman guy.

Buzzword salad. Okay, he says that it's not replacing traditional claimants. It's really used in everyday transactions. He's pushing hard on this. And he's obviously on the Fed. He's one of the presidents, right? He's a Minneapolis Fed president. Is he pushing too hard?

Is he going to influence the Clarity Act? Is he going to hurt your or my Bitcoin position in our portfolios? We have had skeptics on this in this space the entire time. And right now, skeptics feel really good, right? Bitcoin's trading really heavy at $65,000 in an environment. We all would have thought it would have been higher. And so the skeptics are pat on their chest and they're doing their victory lap. He's so wrong in so many ways.

Like stable coin usage is picking up immensely and it's only going to go one direction. America's ability to project power overseas is going to rely on. us selling our stable coin, our currency, our bonds, our equities, our credit, overseas through tokens. So the projection of American power is going to come through this apparatus. And so it's almost shameful that a Fed governor or someone in a position of authority as an American isn't doing the homework to saying, this is going to be an amazing weapon for America, an amazing asset for America. That doesn't mean the price of Ethereum needs to go up. It doesn't mean the price of Bitcoin needs to go up. Those are communities. And if the community believes that this is a safe place to store your value, it'll go up.

But digital assets are going to run over crypto rails. And digital assets are the future. You can see it already. I mean, you know, Mike Cagney, shout out had figured just did a $230 million, I think $230 million equity raise for his company all on chain. And it was oversubscribed. Like that's coming. So Kashgari should do a little more homework and understand that the job of policymakers is to understand the new technologies, help implement those new technologies for the best of America. Now, I just wondering, Michael, if I'm going to call, I'm going to drop a flag on our generation of people. Okay. Maybe not you and me because I think I see us as the good guys. I see them as the bad guys.

But let's just say our generation of people are demographically out to lunch in terms of accepting certain parts of the future. And I think our political class, people that are in their 60s like you and me, I think they've more or less been in self-service as opposed to public service. So where are you on that? Listen, so I have made this joke all the time that I'm a goddamn baby boomer by 35 days, right? I'm November 26, 1964. Baby boom ends New Year's Day of that, or New Year's Eve last year. I'm really not a baby boomer. They really call us Generation Jones, that in-between generation,

between Gen X. And you're right there with me. When I look at the boomers, which I really think more of the Bill Clinton, Donald Trump age, right? They're right in the heart of the boomers. it has been the most selfish generation in the history of America. No question. When they took, when they went into power, when they were in their 30s, right? We had roughly child poverty in the country, you know, who lived under the poverty line, about 16% of kids lived under the poverty line and 60% of seniors lived under the poverty line. Fast forward 40 years, they've been in power that long.

We still have 16% of kids under the poverty line, but only 3% of seniors under the poverty line. In essence, they took the apple, that little delicious apple, and instead of giving it to their grandchild, they ate it themselves. Yeah, exactly. And you can look at so many statistics of how this generation got fat. Mm-hmm. They stole, they've left this new generation, as you said, $41 trillion going to $56 trillion in debt. And they should be ashamed of themselves, quite frankly. And I'm ashamed of having that 31-day link to them.

Well, I'm older than you. So I'm with you. But I just think that, you know, it's a lack of self-awareness by cash car. You have the debt heading to 120% of GDP. Over the last 15 years, the Fed spent its time debasing the U.S. dollar. I just find it to be a real lack of self-awareness. That entire generation, Donald Trump, Bill Clinton, George Bush, they were all born the same year. That one year got 24 years of representation of the president.

presidency. Just mathematically, you're supposed to get one year per one year. Fascinating. Good point. And so it's been so overrepresented because they were baby boomers. Had a huge population boom and they had this wealth that came out of World War II. And it's been the most selfish generation. Listen, there's some brilliant people. I gave this argument to Mike Milken, who's born the same year as Donald Trump, George Bush, Bill Clinton, John Corzine, Mike Milken. And all born the same year. I gave it to Milken. He got so mad at me. He's like, you're your, you're cheating on the demographic. I'm like, I'm just giving you the numbers. Right. And he loves demographics. Right. Of course. I just think the baby boomers will go down as the selfish generation. And quite

frankly, it's time for them all to scaddle. Like, get off the public stage. They won't. If you look at the age of senators in the Northeast, it averages 80. Like, it's crazy. It's incredible. You know, I had this whole campaign. when Biden was ready, end the gerontocracy. And it wasn't just Biden was too old. It was all of these guys are too old. We should have a limit of 72 years old for public service, hard stop. Listen, I'm totally with these.

All right. 30 seconds left. You're going to give you, you're going to give you 10 seconds on each topic. You're ready? Clarity Act, it gets passed? Yes or no? I'm still, it gets passed. Okay.

Bitcoin breaks below 60? Yes or no? I don't think so, but I'm, I'm, saying that as a 70-30, not as a 90-10. Okay. And Kevin Warsh, it's June 30 at 2026. Is he the Fed chair? He's the Fed share and he's already cutting. Okay. All right. We're going to wrap it right there. We'll see you guys next week. All good, Anthony. All right, brother. Instacart makes grocery shopping easier. And just because you're not doing the shopping yourself doesn't mean you don't care how it's done. With Instacart shopper notes, you can get

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