Open Book with Anthony Scaramucci - War in Iran, Trump’s Anthropic Ban, & Jane Street’s Bitcoin Rigging

Episode Date: March 4, 2026

This week was absolutely insane — we've got US and Israeli strikes on Iran, markets somehow shrugging it off, and the Trump administration trying to kneecap Anthropic even while using their AI to pick military targets. And if that's not enough, we're going to talk about Jane Street and some serious questions around Bitcoin market manipulation. Mike and I are breaking it all down here on All Things Markets. Michael Novogratz is the Founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital. He was formerly a Partner and President of Fortress Investment Group LLC. Mr. Novogratz served on the New York Federal Reserve’s Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets from 2012 to 2015. He serves as the Chairman of The Bail Project and has made criminal justice reform a focus of his family’s foundation. Follow Anthony on X: https://x.com/Scaramucci Follow Novo on X: https://x.com/novogratz Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm, and founder and chairman of SALT, a global thought leadership forum and venture studio. Pre-order my next book, All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, out on the 17th of September in the UK and the 22nd of September in the US: ⁠https://linktr.ee/anthonyscaramucci Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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And typically when we've gotten to these concentration levels, the legendary Teddy Roosevelt said, you know, enough is enough. Can we break this up, please? And what happens is these companies, they have a tendency to sit on technologies. Or you worried about this concentration of power? Elon Musk had said it. He thought there was a 20% chance that you could wipe out half of humanity. A 20% chance that you could wipe out half of humanity.

And everyone seemed to agree to them. And they were like, yeah, but we're not going to really do much about it. And so there is a real, cavalier attitude towards what could go wrong amongst this space race that's happening. And partly because it's a space race. It's seen as a winner takes all game. And so it's dangerous.

Welcome to All Things Markets. I am Anthony Scaramucci. And I'm Mike Novagretz. Michael, my God, the executive producer of the reality television show known as the Trump administration, Donald J. Trump, is always leaving

something for you and me to talk about, right? So we've got another eventful week. Let's start with the Israeli strikes, the U.S. Israeli strikes on Tehran and other parts of Iran and the coordinated attack by Iran on the countries in the Gulf that have U.S. naval or military installations. Give us a assessment from your perspective as a macro investor. Where do you you think things are right now and are you surprised by things? Listen, I think most macro investors kind of expected at one point we'd attack and got a lot of the trades wrong. And so I'll give you my sense. I think Donald Trump attacked Iran because he saw them, you know, murder 25, 30,000 people and had said, don't do it or there's going to be hell to pay. And,

He wants to be the hero here. And, you know, listen, I'm for him on this one. You know, I don't agree with Donald Trump on everything, but I, you know, I've never liked the theocracy in Iran. I visited there. I took the U.S. wrestling team there. The people in Tehran, this was 12 years ago, who didn't like the black hats, as they called them. And the pressure has been building there. Listen, as Americans, we've learned our lesson around regime.

regime change. And so this has been couched in their nukes. We've got to get their nukes out and an Israeli cloak. But deep down, I think, and I think America will support him on this, he saw something he really hated and decided to do something about it. And because of that, Anthony, we're not going to blow up bridges. We're not going to blow up power stations. We're not going to go to help data centers. We're going to try to do as little damage as we can to the civilian population, albeit there was a school with some, you know, I think 13 children and there was a volleyball team. You know, there certainly was, you know, some disproportionate, uh, consequences of the attack. But I think we're going to hit the military over and over. They have no air cover

so we can fly, you know, really without fear. And we're going to try to eradicate the Iranian military apparatus over the next two to seven days. All right. Well, I mean, listen, I want to, you know, like you, I love our troops and the people that are in harm's way I'm praying for. And obviously these casualties are not something any of us want. I don't want to overly get into the politics of this, but right now only 27 percent of the Americans are supporting it. I think Americans have typically gotten some level of Middle Eastern fatigue because, you know, as you pointed out the regime changes don't go super well and you're having missile strikes i don't know maybe that will dislodge a 50-year the accuracy uh i hope it does i'm not saying you know i'm not

wishing against it but but i'm i want i want your well this is more complicated than venezuela in that listen there was a there was a lady in waiting i'm actually meeting with her tomorrow uh you know maria machado uh that'll be interesting um just to see what she has to say Now, she's not been installed, but they had an election. There's an opposition party. You know, Trump decided to keep number two in place for some period of time until they can transition into elections. So it's more stable. We don't have that in Iran, right?

There's not a Navalny. There's not a Marian Machado. There's not an opposition leader. And, you know, Reza Palavi is a pretender. He's not connected to that place for 47. years. And so I think that's a mistake to have any bets on that guy. You know, I'm not making judgment about him personally. I just think that that's not, that's not going to work. And so, we got to see what comes out of Iran, you know, Rouhani, who had been a more moderate leader at one

point could potentially try to show up or, you know, I don't know that politics well enough. I do think the base case is we destroy all their military capabilities for a long, long time. And even if we pull out that and see what happens, Trump will declare victory. And the markets won't care. Like oil will go back down. So right now what's been surprises with oil prices up, people said, oh shit, higher consumer prices and fixed income, which normally in times of war rallies has sold off. And so most macro portfolios had big two-year or fixed income positions thinking, hey, that's my hedge versus geopolitical risk. And that didn't work. Stocks are up on the day. Pretty surprising. That's how strong the stock market is. And so the stock market is saying this doesn't matter that much. This will come and go, period.

And the disruption on the oil markets, even though that's only a 21 mile width of stripping the Strait of Hormuz, they don't think that the Iranian-Natian nation. is going to close that off. You'll see the flow of oil. I think we've knocked off 10 of their ships already. Right. What you have to understand is if I can't shoot you down from the sky, I can just fly my planes and drones at will and blow you up. And with the intelligence that both America and Israel has with the satellite intelligence, with the precision of drones and aircraft, it's literally shooting ducks in a pond. And so we will, the only thing that is stopping us is how many planes and drones versus how many missile silos. That's going to take a week or so.

But each of our attacks is hitting its target because there's no one to stop them. And so Iran did something that was actually kind of deviously brilliant. It says we got no other play other than let's mess with the rest of the Gulf and see if they get so scared, they beg the U.S. to slow down. Right? And so listen, if you're in Abu Dhabi and your whole brand is safety and come live here because it's safe, you can leave your wallet in the restaurant, someone's going to give it back to you, and there's no crime. And all of a sudden you see debris falling and hitting hotels. That scares the crap at you. So that's bad.

Bad for Abu Dhabi, bad for Dubai. But, you know, they're tough guys. That will come and go. And I think tonight, tomorrow night, they'll be a lot more prepared than they were last. night. So there's been a bid to markets. You know, and oil is actually trended down a little bit at spite, but it's trended down. It's been a general bid to markets. So the markets is shrugging this off. Yes? Yeah. I mean, NASDAQ has unchanged on the day. Okay. So people thought it was going to be on three, four percent. Right. Well, and I thought, I thought oil would have would have punched

into the mid-80s. It didn't, it didn't go anywhere near that. So, you know, listen, I'm hoping for the here. I want to switch gears because you know this and I know this and a lot of people listening know this, but our entire military footprint has been changed by AI, has been changed by drone technology, has been changed by cyber. Our acquisition of intelligence has been enhanced by AI and Anthropic, which had over a $200 million contract with the federal government. And even though they're in a fight right now. They have used Anthropics servers to help coordinate and organize the attack, actually, pick targets. That was kind of actually ironic. We're badmouthed and Anthropic. They're a lefty, woke organization. We're not going to use them. Actually,

we're going to use them. Right. No, we've been using them for the last six months. And actually, in the attack, we deployed most of the stuff that Anthropic has given us. But we now have a, we have some tension going on. The president and Pete Hegseth, secretary Hegseth, are bullying Anthropic. And again, just to set the scene for everybody here,

and this is, I'm going to give Anthropics words, Anthropic always wants a human being involved in military target acquisition and the eventual deployment because they don't want to just trust the machinery on its own. And then the second thing is, Anthropic has said that they don't want the stuff that they've given to the American military

to be used for internal surveillance of American citizens. Okay, those two things were rebuked by Secretary Hexed to the point where he's now wants to designate them as a national supply chain risk. Interestingly enough, the nemesis of Elon Musk, Sam Altman, swoops in there. it says no problem, I'm ready to sign that contract. So square all of that for us. Listen, I think Anthropic has taken a principled stance and I get a lot of credit for it.

Like, I don't think if you asked Americans, raise your hand if you want Terminator 2 machines firing at people on their own will, many hands would go up. Right? We just, like, AI is less than a year old for most of us. And now you're going to have, you know, robots shooting people without, without a human saying yes or no. That doesn't jive with the American public.

It doesn't jive with me. And so it's interesting when a buddy of mine, a big hedge fund manager, went to a, this is probably five months ago, went to a crypto, I mean, an AI offsite with every one of Sam Altman, Dario, all of the bigwigs, Elon Musk, Bill Gates was there, Obama was there, 100 people, all VIP, discussing this, he was shocked at how cavalier people were on what could go wrong. And Elon Musk had said at that point, he thought there was a 20% chance that you could wipe out half of humanity. A 20% chance that you could wipe out half of humanity. And everyone seemed to agree to them.

And they were like, yeah, but we're not going to really do much about it. Matter of one guy was asked, what are you going to do? What are you going to buy a place down in New Zealand? You're like, that's, that's the defense. And so there is a real cavalier attitude towards what could go wrong amongst this space race that's happening. And partly because it's a space race. It's seen as a winner takes all game. A winner takes all amongst those five.

And a winner takes all amongst us in China. And so it's dangerous. And so I give the Anthropic team a lot of credit. Like, you know, listen, Hegseth is acting like a bully and a big. tough dude. I'm sure there's probably a court that's going to say, no, you can't designate them as a supply chain risk. And that's usually what we do to the Chinese suppliers. You know, that was the last, I think, first of we did it was to Huawei and backed away from that. Half of America is using, including Goldman Sachs, we just did a big contract, he's using Anthropic. And so, you know,

we'll see how that plays out. I think that's a little. a lot of bravado. It's very similar to Hegsus saying, even though he went to Princeton and Harvard, all the, I mean, universities are too woke. We're not going to allow our officers to go there for grad school and for PhDs. And, you know, I was part of the Kennedy School up at Harvard's public policy leadership program that David Gurgan had set up. And, you know, I'd say a third of them were military guys. And they learned a ton and they added a ton. And it's insulting. to think that those guys were brainwashed. They heard some of the toughest son of the bitches I'd seen,

guys like Seth Moulton, who's a congressman. And so this is a lot of political theater from an administration that loves political theater. So our buddy Neil Ferguson, who you and I both know, we put out a research report this morning, suggesting that the government will find a way to walk this back, that it's a little bit too aggressive, and that they will figure out a way to reconcile with Anthropic.

do you think that that's possible? Of course they will because if they don't, the courts are going to smack them upside the head. You know, what keeps happening is, listen, and I'm not, this is a strategy that the administration uses

and they've used it to a lot of, you know, effect, but they push, they push, they get, you know, bold and say outrageous claims,

like I invented the question mark. And then they walk it back or the courts walk them back. Like, you know, we still have some sanity in, in a lot of our institutions. And so I don't,

think you'll see no army officers at the Ivy League schools, and I don't think you'll see Anthropic being banned from the United States. Anthropic, meteoric valuation. On track to be probably one of the more successful IPOs, maybe history. You think that's still on track, Michael? Yeah, 100%. Like, there's not a company right now that isn't talking Claude Code. Okay. Okay. And you think is Claude better than Chad GBT? I, you know, that's, I don't know. One of the hardest things about being a CEO today is AI is becoming so important. And most of us don't have the skill set to really understand is Claude better.

I mean, ask my guys, they're using Claude more than they're using ChatGPT now. But I don't have the I don't have the wherewithal to split that atom in lots of ways. It's just something I haven't studied in my life and don't have enough repetitions with it. But, you know, it's gaining, you could see Anthropics revenue passing Chad GPTs with the next 12 months, talking to the analysts that are, you know, focused on it. And so they're doing something right. First of all, it's a way better writer. So then Chad GBT, but yes, I mean, there's a lot about going on with both those companies.

Michael, one of my favorite topics, possibly one of your favorite topics. Hmm, I think the name of your company's galaxy does something in crypto. Okay, so let's go to crypto. Okay. Been a good night. Yeah, we finally had a good night. Yeah, we're going to get, are we going to get beat down again? There's this big room.

What I love about the crypto community, they are looking desperately for a scapegoat. I'm going to provide my editorial opinion here and get your reaction to it. I sort of feel like crypto is down because there are more sellers and buyers, okay? And I think that's the reason. I don't, I said this in the last couple episodes, I think 60,000 was a tradable low. I'm hoping it was. It feels like it was. We've retested a few times.

And now we're trading up on a day where the rest of risk first traded down. And so that's promising. It's still, listen, you're not going to feel great about crypto unless it gets through 80. And, you know, we're still a long way from 80. like that'll make you feel a lot better. But you certainly feel, you know, Ethereum just doesn't feel like it wants to go under 1800. And so we might have had sellers exhaustion. It doesn't mean there's a new narrative that's going to bring tons of people in overnight.

But all the crypto hedge funds were short crypto, right? And now they might have to buy back just enough to get back to index because, God forbid, it goes up to 80 or 100 and they're not in it. They're going to shoot themselves. Right. they got to chase it. But Michael, the new scapegoat. We have a new scapegoat in town. If you go to CryptoX or Crypto Twitter, Jane Street was sued recently. And it looked like in the complaint there was some exposure there describing what they did to Terra, you know, and Luna, right in the 2002 collapse. And they are describing, at least in the complaint, a systematic dumping program, which was taking place. There's a theory that says, this drove Bitcoin down. Okay, I don't subscribe to that theory, by the way. Look, I would tell you this, that Jump, Jane Street, Tower, Citadel, these are the power houses of finance.

They make Goldman Sachs look antiquated. I would put Virtue in there, too, right? Or no. Virtue, and there's a few in Europe. They are making so much money pound per pound, and they are extracting attacks. from everyone else who uses markets. They are extracting that noise. By providing liquidity,

they're just, they're scooping up the pennies and the nickels at a pace that is just breathtaking. And, you know, they're playing fairly for the most part. Every once in a while, they get their hands slap because they're cheating. But I would say broadly,

they're just faster, more resourced, and smarter. Now, you can make a decision, is that good for markets, is it good for society or not? You know, I'm starting to scratch my head of that because they literally are making so much money. And, you know, I'm not sure what value they pervade other than liquidity. But if you're providing liquidity but taking a huge lion's share of the profit, that I'm not sure that's a net positive for the market or positive for society. But again, I don't think they're, I think they're doing it because because they've done so well

and they're so smart, they get to hire the best people, they have the fastest equipment, and they have almost a perpetual advantage. So, but it more or less is going to continue, right? Yeah, unless someone, look at it, we're going to get to the point of populism on both parties and people are going to say, hey, put a Tobin tax on. This doesn't help. Like India finally said, this feels like the East India Tea Company coming and stealing all our resources and leaving us nothing else there.

right because you know i think jane street got in trouble in india early in the year exactly so these guys might be too good for their own sake i'd be too good for their own good it's incredible it's incredibly well said we'll have to see what happens but you like the bid here in bitcoin and other cryptos right now i listen bitcoin for the first time in and in in a few weeks a few months you know, starting to feel like we've put in a bottom or gaining some, you know, what I'm called trading resilience. And so I feel I'll sleep better tonight than I did last week owning a bunch of Bitcoin. Well, of course, you know, Elon Musk would like Bitcoin to get to 69,000, 420, right? You love that number too, Michael. I know you do.

Let's go to the concentration problem. This is monopoly money and the betrayal of the American ideal. I just wrote an op-ed. I put it up on. and eventually go to my substack, that, you know, I'm worried about the concentration issues now at this point. You know, the top 1% have 40% of the wealth, the bottom 50% have 2% of the wealth. And typically when we've gotten to these concentration levels, the legendary Teddy Roosevelt said, you know, enough is enough. Can we break this up, please? A little less robber barren activity. And what happens is these companies, they have a tendency to sit on tech. technologies. The great irony, Michael, is that AT&T sat on all this technology. When you and I were kids,

Ronald Reagan and Harold Green, the judge, broke up AT&T and got Bell Laboratories to unleash all of the technologies that turned into the MAG 7, including cloud computing, internet, internet gaming, all the different things. And so I guess my question to you are you worried about this concentration of power? Or do you think it's going to continue? It isn't working well. It is shifting everything into fewer and fewer hands. That happens naturally, Michael, and it's responsible.

Even in 1623, the parliament said, hey, we gave the royal charter to this group. They took on too much market share. We have to bust this trust so that we can create more innovation and we can help smaller businesses. So monopoly laws have been around since the Renaissance. Even the Medici's in 1450s had monopoly breakup policies. Do you think that we're ignoring this 500-year direction at our peril? This is the political dialogue of our time. And, you know, Trump won his election, basically, on a populist right campaign, saying to all these people that aren't participating in the economy, I'm your guy. Mondami is doing the exact.

same thing Trump did on the left. What worries me is it's getting so bad that the rational center where we actually potentially could come up with solutions that will work in the long run, but haven't yet, might just get washed right over. We might go right from Trump to AOC, which I think would be just a tragedy for the country. Listen, we need to do a bunch of things different than we're doing. We need to redistribute, but we need to do it in a much more effective way. Fereez-Zakari did an amazing, you know, video editorial on Blue Cities, where he said, listen, you've got less kids at school, but you're spending more, you know, more total and a

lot more per kid. You've got a lot less people in New York City. And the budget between Bloomberg and Mondami is up by like $40 billion with a smaller population. And so blue city government. keep taking more and spedding it inefficiently. At the same time, we need to redistribute. And so, like, there's got to be two things happen at the same time.

You've got to redistribute a lot more efficiently, and you've got to get buy-in from people. And so one way to do that is fairness, right? Right now, if you took 15 different rich people, they're paying 15 different taxes, tax rates. Some guys have found this way to get away from their taxes. Some guys have found this way. You've got fast depreciation of things.

You get step up basis. So a real estate guy pays a lot less tax for the amount of money he makes than a W-2 worker, a professional tennis player. That makes no sense. Right. And so our tax code is skewed. Everything's been skewed and the little guy keeps getting less and less what he needs more and more because he's having a harder time anyway. And so it's a really hard thing to walk. How do you grow the pie at the same time try to redistribute it?

So I've always thought you'd be better off with everyone having a crypto wallet. And that redistribution happens daily directly, not through inefficient government bureaucracies, not by waiting in line to get your food stamps, but just if you're going to tax people 40% of their net worth, have 20% of it just redistribute it directly to families so they can survive. But we're going to have to come to grips with what this means. Or you're going to have a revolution. And revolutions get ugly, right? Listen, I'm with you.

I just, this is something really worrying me. And I think with the concentration comes lots of wealth and comes lots of eubris. And then people starting to think that they know better than the process. And this decentralized government that we created 250 years ago has generally served us well, has made us very prosperous. When you lean away from that into concentration, you know, you can read enough Greek tragedies that that doesn't end well. So listen, I want to go to the economic dashboard before I let you go. So let's talk about the typical things that people in investing like talking about, the specter of inflation, Michael, and where you think rates are heading.

Do you get a rate cut next meeting? I don't think you get one next meeting. I think you get one of the first meeting Warsh is in. But right now we're pricing in less than that. Right. I mean, I'm long August Fed funds because I thought, well,

you'll at least get one meeting and he might do two. And now you're pricing in only 80% of Warsh hiking at all in his first three meetings. And so, you know, that's partly because the price of oil went up. You know, oil is at 71 bucks a barrel. You know,

I think X war, that goes back to 60. and fixed income rallies. So I'm long two years. I think that's a pretty safe bet. I don't think they're going to be hiking anytime soon. I don't think inflation is going to come ripping back. So you're long the dollar then, too, then, right?

I'm not long the dollar. I'm right now. I resold Dollar Korea today, so I'm long Korea. I had been short the dollar, got out, and I've been kind of just neutral here. You know, I've been long Bitcoin always. It's a core long. I don't think silver and gold are great trades anymore.

I actually would rather sell. I was trying to sell silver at 100 today to got to 95. I think that had its move. And I think stocks are going to go higher. What about oil? I want to sell oil. I sold some last night. I already bought it back.

I'm a seller of oil, not a buyer. You got to be a little careful if something, you know, happens in Saudi or the Straits of her moves. You get a quick jump. But I think any jump you want to fade. Before I let you go, Michael, Europe. What do you think going on in there? Europe's going to have a little bit of a renaissance because they need to. So they're going to spend money on military. They're going to spend money on CAPEX that they haven't spent before. And so I like European equities. I think the euro probably ends the year at 130.

You know, this just does a bit of a rebalancing from dollar dominance and, you know, American exceptionalism. right? We've already told people that we don't necessarily want to be partners with them. We had a really belligerent approach to our ex-allies, and they listened loud and clear and said, okay. And so I think you're going to continue to see money move out of treasuries. Like, listen, it moves back in time to real duress. And so like last night, the dollar rallies, but I don't think that's a sustainable thing anymore. you know, we've got three more years of this administration. Like I said, they're doing some good things and they're doing some things that are, that I wouldn't have done.

I mean, Trump literally, if Iran actually has regime change and Venezuela ends up having elections, we're going to have to say he gets the gold star for the best, you know, foreign policy president in the last 40 years. Listen, I know, listen, despite my personal, opinions. Nobody wants that more than me. I want there to be peace in the Middle East. And I want you and I making lots of money alongside of our clients. And I want everybody listening to our program doing really well and feeling safe and peaceful. You know, it's a trying time. And it's a big calculation. Again, I hope I hope it works. Michael, before we leave, because you know I'm a gossip and you know, I'm a fairly shallow human

being. I mean, I think you've gotten to know that. And so, I, I was, I was in London when Lloyd Blankfine was having his book party at the crane club. Did you go to the crane club? Did you go to the book party? I'd not go to the book party, but I've read the book. Okay. All right. Anyway, I thought we were going to gossip about all the who's who at the book party. I was like, you know, I read Bill Cohen's piece and puck over the weekend. I was like, I'm as though who's who there. I'm sure Novagrats showed up at that party, but you didn't show up. I didn't show up. I was in London, too.

I went to one of the big European banks invited me to their board meeting, which was exciting. And so I was a board meeting. I went to the Rosewood Hotel, which is an old American embassy. Yep. We did a Salernan. We did a solid. The great architect. I didn't realize he had done that.

All those brutalists, it's kind of half-brutalist half-art deco. What a stunning renovation. And he did a great job there. We did our salt conference in London in November there. We're doing our salt conference London in November next year. Hopefully you guys can come. But I thought the place was fantastic. The sweets are incredible. I want to a little shout out to Madam, I guess her name is Madam Chang who did that. That Henry Chang's daughter, she's now running Rosewood for the Chang family. projects like that are half public service philanthropy and half for business they'll never make the money back to that i mean i looked at that thing i was like there's no chance any hotel's ever going to make the kind of money they need to pay for the capex that they must have spent but man oh man they've left something spectacular to london well you know the guitar the guitars are the

ones that built that obviously some of my friends which enticed me to come over there and Madam Chang has the managerial contract on it. The Qataris that I should be thanking. Yeah, so the guitar is really the ones. Thank you to the guitaries for that. For that part of the aging. Contagaries put the money in. But if you're going to get a massage, you can thank Madam Chang in the Rosewood Spa.

I mean, that is really incredible. All right. So there's my shallow, callowness for the week. I appreciate it. We'll see you next week, Michael. Thank you guys for joining all things markets. Thanks, guys. We've all been there.

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