OverDrive - Duquette on Bieber's debut with the Blue Jays, the six-man rotation views and the AL East contenders

Episode Date: August 22, 2025

Former MLB General Manager and SiriusXM MLB Network Radio Analyst Jim Duquette joined OverDrive to discuss Shane Bieber's debut with the Blue Jays and how he will perform, a six-man starting rotation, the team's possible playoff pitchers, the Red Sox's ceiling in the AL East, the Mets' playoff chances and more.

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Alpine Credits, where homeowners get approved. Fisrael License 12-616. Let's bring in now, former Major League General Manager in Sirius XM, MLB Network radio host, Jim DeKat, joining us on the Maple Toyota Hotline. Jim, welcome. How are you? Hey, guys. Good afternoon. How are you? With full of anticipation on Shane Bieber.

I mean, you've been around this game for a while. You know that the science is there on a guy who hasn't pitched in Major League Baseball in 507 days, obviously, that, you know, everybody's comfortable with where he is. So I guess the ultimate question is, what do we expect tonight and what do we expect this turns into? Well, yeah, I think those are two different outcomes.

So that's a good question. I think tonight, listen, pitching, you know, I'm kind of curious, a couple things tonight. What's the velocity on the breaking ball? On the fastball. You know, what kind of life does he have in his breaking ball? Likely two scene fastballs, right? I don't know. Last time I saw him, it was mid-nid, low to mid-90s, probably on the lower side of the 90 range.

really good slider cutter I'm curious what the slider looks like if there's any swing and miss on that I think you know if he has a good first outing usually that's something you can you can build on there might be a little downturn and stuff around start three you know in that range start two start three start four somewhere in that range and but if he can not miss a start in you know pitch not miss his side sessions I think you know this is kind of a a very intriguing and exciting moment for me to watch because he can be he can be a difference maker when he's completely healthy so yeah there's some real upside here i'm always a little skeptical with guys that have missed that much time and that's that's why i'm cautiously optimistic

about it yeah when you look at this jim there's been a lot of debate in Toronto in the lead up to this moment about how should the blue jays handle it i think in part because of the skepticism you show, but, you know, sometimes these guys, you know, they need some time to come back from such a long absence. And there was this feeling that, and I know Steve Phillips, who's a regular on our network here at TSN, really was pushing for a six-man rotation, which would build an extra rest for all these guys, including, you know, the 41-year-old Max Scherzer. And yet they've decided not to do that. At least for now, they're going to go to the five-man rotation. They've sent Lauer down to the bullpen because of it. Did you have any

strong feelings about, you know, the way to handle a moment like this if you're handling this staff? So, yeah, I mean, a lot of this depends, too, on the off days, right? So I don't have the schedule, right? I know who they're playing, roughly who they're playing and remaining the schedule. I don't know how many updates they have in between. So almost every staff, I did this exercise last winter and going back just using the entire league and starting pitchers, pitching on five days of

Reds versus, on their fifth day, rather, versus their sixth day. 70% of the league has pitches on the sixth day throughout the course of the season. Like 70% of the starts last year. So for the most part, there aren't a lot of starts that are, you know, a fifth, a guy throwing on his fifth day because what teams end up doing is inserting a guy, you know, if you have like the Mets, I'm watching the Mets right now, they have a 16-game streak of games with no off days. Well, guess what? Next week sometime, they're inserting a starter from the minor leagues to push out the back end of those other starters so they get the extra

days rest. I suspect that's how Toronto might handle that too if they have a long stretch of consecutive games. So, you know, I think the harder part is guys like Scher, you know, you have a real veteran staff there, but Rios, I don't think you want them pitching on their seventh day. That's where I feel like that's a little bit too much. if you're doing it, you know, that often. So I think that's where, you know, you tend to draw the line. At least I tend to draw the line when it comes to having, you know, workloads for starting pitchers. You know, for Schneider, the manager, how does he kind of manage, you know,

keeping his team, you know, ready and playing well, but also knowing that they're fighting with the Red Sox and Yankees to win the ALE East? Yeah. Well, yeah, I mean, a lot of times these games do come down to, you know, manager. you know, gyrio moves, you know, handling the bullpen options with their bullpen. I mean, the bullpen for the Js hasn't been great since the break. I was just looking at some numbers, ERA-wise, at least they're almost lasted there. But a good way for the rotation, for the bullpen to be better is let your starters go a little deeper, too.

And they're one of the few teams that can do that. So, you know, I think they counter that. So, you know, I think from the perspective of what John, can do. I try to win the games that you have in front of you that, you know, the weaker teams, and there's a fair number of those teams below 500 along the way, and then, you know, try to play even 500 against the teams when they're winning records or above 500. And, you know, I think generally if you do that, there's in such a good place they should be able to win the division. Probably early to do this, because we don't have any sample size on Shane Bieber. But as you're

projecting us and sort of launching into the playoffs you had six starters you have five now how do you how do you decide who who starts the first game and how do you sort of condense that staff well generally the you take your top three guys whoever's whoever's whoever's been pitching the best and just you know ride it ride that out then you know then try to line it up you know the fourth best after that now you know sure's has been pitching better lately, and so that changes the equation a little bit. I always liked, and I used to talk to Jill Tori about this, or Terry Francona, when they were in the postseason, it was like, pick your hottest pitchers.

Like your best pitchers, also your hottest, you know, hopefully are your hottest pitchers, that combination, just start them one, two, and three. Try to get, you know, trying to play games, oh, we do this, or we, you just can't do. You can't expect, well, I got to, I want this got to go games one, I think that, you know, you have to go and try to win as many games as you can early on in the postseason. So just pushing the best starter to the top is really just watching the postseason the last 15 years I've been doing it for that long. That's how most of the teams are doing it these days. So, you know, in the end, I don't know, is Gossman, is it got, Gossman would probably be, you know, in that mix for sure.

Bieber has a chance to be in that I think that Breos will wait and see on Who else? Who else am I? Yeah, I think they're hoping Shures up there as well, right? Yeah, yeah. I mean, the way he's pitching now, it's hard not to, especially because

he's got the most postseason experience of pretty much anybody. So, you know, that is valuable down the stretch. And he's not, you know, there have been times in the past where he's been running out of gas. I know when he was with the Dodgers at one point, you know, he ended up having an injury that knocked him out against the giants in that

at D.S, I believe, that they ended up losing. So he's had that in the past, but because, you know, he came into the season a little bit later, he should be fine in that area. So I'm not even worried about the workload for him in October. Hey, Jim, when you sort of scan the rest of the American League, if you're the Blue Jays, I guess, you know, you watch the Yankees booted around against the Red Sox last night,

you know, give up nine walks, make four errors. They've been doing that a lot this season. Red Sox are intriguing. They're up and coming, but they're young. I mean, when you look at these teams, like, who scares you the most if you're the Blue Jays? Who's the biggest threat to stop your sort of fairy tale run to a World Series? Well, you know, I think that most of those teams that would scare me are in the east. You know, the hard part is, I think, the best.

manager that the one that you have to compete with the most is in Detroit. I think A.J. Hinch is probably the best of that group, and that team is one that they're just so unpredictable. I don't, they could get bounced in the first round, or I could see them, you know, in the LCS against Toronto. So I think, I think they're a wild card for me. I think just, you know, last year, the defense with the Yankees was not good. And they were able to overcome it, and got all the way, you know, it just tripped them up in the, in the World Series, and that's why they lost, you know, one of the reasons why they lost to the Dodgers. So, you know, unless they really, really trip all over themselves, they're going to be

always a team to compete with because they're always there. So I think if I were picking two teams, I'd say that, you know, that could derail it would be the Yankees, although we saw what the Yankees did up there in Toronto. They have not had a lot of success. And then Detroit, I think those three for me are the strongest, at least in my mind, in the American League. The Mets are fine for the lives to get into the playoffs in a wild card spot right now, if possible. What do you think to some of the easier things they could adjust or fix to get this

pretty expensive squad into the playoffs? Yeah. Well, I'll tell you, they have a real problem because the last, I'm going to say, at least 60 games. Actually, it's 62 games. They've had one starter, pitched six innings or more. He's done it like seven times, but that's it.

No one else has been able to even get to six innings. That's a minimum number of innings that you would expect a starter to do. They can't get there. They have the least amount of innings pitched for their starting rotation since that point, since early June. Consequently, it's really caused their bullpen to have a lot of problems. and you know that just they don't when your starters don't go deep

you there's no margin for error you can't make mistakes they usually come back and bite you you got to drive in runs when they're in scoring positions the Mets have had a hard time with that but I really feel like it centers around the rotation if they don't get that straight

I don't know if they're going to get in so they're a really fascinating team I don't think Cincinnati is that good I don't think they're as good as the Mets but you know that team has some really good starting pitching, and it wouldn't shock me if it goes right down to the end between those two teams. Jim, back to the Jays for a second.

Obviously, Manoa is working his way back, and the kid, Traya Savage, looks very good. I mean, how would you handle that situation for both those guys? Do they get a look? Well, you know, it's hard at this point in the season to bring them into a pennant race and have them, you know, unless there's an injury to bring them into the rotation, especially as you mentioned, like, you know, Lauer should have the first shot at, you know, getting a start when there's one that opens up. Now, you know, if they get a rain out and they end up having a double header, maybe, maybe Manoa, you know, fits in there. The Savage, you know, I loved him as a college guy.

I haven't seen them as a pro yet, but, you know, there have been some teams that bring up their young starters in the bullpen and give them that opportunity. And that's more old school. when I was in the front office, we tended to do that. I mean, I remember Pedro Martinez got his first start with the Expos that way. I would look at, you know, you could use him in the bullpen as a guy that could give you some innings and see what that looks like. But I don't think I, unless there was a unique situation, I don't think I would put him in the starting rotation at this point. Unless, you know, maybe they clinch it. You know, if they clinch it early, well, that's which is always the best case scenario.

And then maybe he gets to start that way. How real do you think the Red Sox are, Jim? You saw Roman Anthony have the big three-run, three RBI night to beat the Yankees last night. We've seen this a weird kind of season for the Red Sox where you trade your best player in the middle of it all. And you try and move on and sort of rebuild on the fly. And it seems to be, you know, he needs to be working to a degree. I mean, how seriously do you take that team in the here and now? You know, I think that they're good enough to get to the postseason.

I don't see how they can make a good enough, a long run into the postseason. I mean, they've got a really good bullpen, and the rotation has been better than I thought. There's a lot of inconsistency with that often, especially when you have young hitters. I've been watching them the last four days, and they've had a hard time with runners on base, runners in scoring position. and they lost a series to the Orioles. They lost a series to the Marlins. You know, last night it was a good win for them,

but they had, I think they were, what, three for 19 with runners in scoring position? Like they should have blown out the Yankees last night, you know? And it was a tight game up all the way to the ninth. So, you know, they've shown a lot better than I thought they would after they traded Devers, but if they do make the postseason, I think it's going to be hard for them to make it past that first round. Jim, the Baltimore has signed their catcher to a big deal.

Did you feel comfortable making or signing players at this time of the year or does you just want to get the deal done? Well, I like it because, you know, the Orioles have been talking about trying to sign their young players to long-term contracts. But the main ones that they have under control for at least a little while, Addery Ruchman, he's hurt now probably lost that window, Gunner Henderson, Jackson Holiday, are represented by Scott Boris. Boris is never going to do a team-friendly deal for you, so you've got no chance there.

And so, you know, you start looking around. Colton Cowder, who's in the rookie of the year last year, he hasn't had a good year, so he's probably not a good candidate. The one that would be is the guy Bezio, who they signed. So I give them credit for, in the end, I think that's going to be a team-friendly deal. he can really he can really hit i think he might have to move to first base uh but there's a ton of risk you know with that's why with the with the red sex you're paying what 130 million to roban anthony he's 21 years old you better be right i think they are but you know i don't i don't know i think the

orioes will be right and you know they'll say themselves probably 50 60 million dollars over the long term it just it comes with a lot of risk you know when you're spending that kind of money for unproven major leaguers Jays are in Miami on the weekend, at home to Minnesota, then at home to Milwaukee. So let's talk about the brewers who have 80 wins. I mean, this is legitimate. I mean, they've been on fire. Yeah, it's, I mean, they're a great story, you know.

And when you, when you guys watch them, I mean, you're going to notice right away. It's a really good team. And they make it uncomfortable, you know, at the plate. They don't strike out, which is like similar to what the Blue Jays are. They have a lot of team speed. um way more team speed than pretty much anybody in the game but they put pressure on you there they they're good defensively like toronto is their pitching is one to 12 is probably better than toronto although i like the rotation better for the Toronto so there there are some similarities

between between the two but Milwaukee has been on a really incredible run and what is it three three different times they've had 10 game win streak something like that it's it's it's it's it's what they've been able to accomplish. And they're relatively young team, too. That's the other impressive thing about them. Hey, Jim, when you were in the executive office of a team and you had a team out on the road, I was curious about this one. The Blue Jays have been in Miami for two straight nights.

South Beach, on the road, the dog days of the season. How does an executive team handle that? Do you allow the manager to lay down rules? or do you have, you know, people watching to make sure guys don't get in too much trouble? What goes on when you're on the road in such a glamorous spot like that? Yeah, that's a tough one. I think you issue a couple of reminders, hey, be smart, don't be doing anything stupid. Reminder, we have a curfew.

The curfew, by the way, is always there just to cover your, it's the C-Y-A, right? Cover your hearse. Right. And it was always like, well, if you are out, and you got into trouble, it was 2 a.m., you violated some rule. So, you know, you have it in place, and you always go back and, you know, and discipline them that way. But these days, players are a little smarter just because of the social media aspect

and the camera aspect. It's a little more difficult than, you know, 15 years ago when you could go out and no one really knew about you. Who was watching the executives at that time? Well, you know, there are some executives that need a chaperones, I can tell you that. If you want to expand, then I'd go ahead. No, you know, in particular stories, I want to protect the innocent, gentlemen. I like your C.YA. I may steal that.

Yeah, yeah. Oh, yeah. There's a lot of that in the front office. Let me tell you, whether it was when I was there or whether it's right now, there's a lot of that for sure. Jim, thanks very much. Enjoy your weekend. All right, guys. Have a good weekend. Thank you. Jim Duquette, joined us on the Maple Toyota Hotline,

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