OverDrive - Johnson on Marner playing through the contract buzz, Matthews' offensive production and Tanev's importance to the team

Episode Date: March 11, 2025

TSN Hockey Analyst Mike Johnson joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the NHL, the Maple Leafs' roster overview and the construction of the team, Chris Tanev's importance on the blue line, Auston Matthews' offensive production, Mitch Marner's contract next steps and more.

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Switch to Bell PureFiber, Canada's fastest internet, awarded by UCCLA. Starting from $60 a month. Visit bell.ca for more details and to check availability. Here's Mike Johnson, our TSN hockey analyst, joining us here on the Maple Toyota Hotline. What's happening? Johnny? What's up, boys? Now, the question is, quick Jerry's percentages haze to you. Yes. What is the Jerry's percentages that Tiger plays a somewhat regular schedule on the senior

PGA Tour? That is a great question because 10 years ago he was too cool for that. It was like, I'm not doing that. Yeah, I'm not going. No chance. As he's aged and as he has become more and more disconnected with the younger players I think he actually has been kind of pining for Getting out there playing with Bernie else and stricker and all these guys

I actually think there's a chance that happens Johnny because of his business obligations Because of what he represents to the sport and his clothing line and all that. I'll say 25% that he plays, you know, four or five events a year on that tour. I could see that. I could see that still be in the case. I would have said 0% a decade ago. I would have said 0%. No chance he'd ever do that. But he's different now. He's in a different world now. In a competitive fire, he probably wants to play get some of the guy you got the scar tissue up again like a lot you remember me

i'd be you all the time right now i think i'm not you don't have that and he probably want to play from sixty seven hundred yard courses would be much nicer for body as well as you take a car all p they allow you to do that card i know but will he do it like is it a pride thing for him? I bet he doesn't. I bet he doesn't because I think part of his whole thing about golf was he made it physical But like one of his advantage was that he was a better athlete. He was in better shape. He was stronger and I think I don't know if it's a good question Frank

I mean He was by that Casey Martin Remember him who had the disease that had to take the card on the PGA tour and that was controversial I just don't think he goes there. He's like if I'm not good enough to walk. I'm not gonna be good enough to play Yeah, yeah, I could see him trying to be committed to that certainly, you know early into his tenure on that tour We got a big one tonight, Florida Boston where, where Marchand was dancing around in the morning skate today and speaking with the media. I don't know when we're going to see him.

I don't know if you've heard anything, MJ, in terms of what his timeline is, but he's certainly not close to a return. Do you expect that when he does return, what do you think this is going to look for? What should we be preparing ourselves for if we if we make the assumption that marshall will play in the playoffs and matthew kichuck will play in the playoffs for florida it's gonna be just another bit of depth for them i mean if you look at their first line i don't know if you played in the first line with for hagi and kichuck and Barkov and if the second line has got Bennett and and and

Reinhart and Rodriguez, I think he's basically an in-and-out guy Rodriguez and him will flip and flop between the third line and the second line But he'll bring the energy the attitude the experience and I think as much as anything Hayes I Would think that Florida as good as they are and all that they've accomplished. They don't need anything but having a jolt of adrenaline and energy and personality into a group that's been in the final two years in a row, and they've been through the grind, and they've been through some injuries, and they're in a very good spot still, but maybe just bringing that to the mix late and on to the playoffs would also be sort of energizing for the group. I mean, he's still, what is he, 50 points? It's not like he's not a very good player still.

He might not be a 100 point guy, he might be a 65, 68 point guy. That's still really, really good. I'd expect him to play a pretty significant role. And his experience in big moments, he got a lot of success in those times and i expect in the channel that you know how to go down and for florida all right johnny like we know the leaves need chris tana especially come playoff time to get a play florida gameplay tampa like you're not getting through anyone without him but the way they're playing right now as leaky defensively

like is that but ten of thing Is that a Tanev thing? Is that a team thing? Should they be able to get by right now playing teams like Utah without Chris Tanev having a three goal lead? How does that whole dynamic play out for you right now? This is all Chris Tanev. And Tanev is woefully underpaid, Frankie. Right.

Norris. Give him the Norris. If he's the world that given our altogether you have to be paid the heart for the north exactly um... yeah like yet of course they should be able to be better defensively they i'd again nobody want to hear that but i am somewhat sympathetic to their schedule has been growing

gruesome road schedule and i think the idea of them being a little bit fatigued mentally, a little bit fatigued physically, played into some not great games against Vegas, Colorado, even San Jose, or Utah. So yeah, I think get home. What's the other thing to do against Florida? They got two days rest, reset, massive game at home, full building, we got it on thursday night we're doing the game

and we'll take a look what they look like their can have or not uh... i will say this frankie for all my suggested that carlo would be a good fit for morgan riley not yet not yet at some point and i have it quite coalesced the way they you know and make both him a lot in both

art sort of try to figure it out the fly and getting stock in in between a few of your breakdown the you know when to go when not to go when to check when not to but uh... they are you better they had been way better defensively but that's not even a tan of thing and i think this is one of the sort of misnomer is about the least this year.

For the first 20 games, they were unquestionably a much better defensive team than what we have seen in years past. Much better. All the underlying numbers, including goals against, were way down. The last 40 games, they're not that. They're almost what they were in years past they just don't score as much they're down to like 2022 in a lot of the defensive numbers chances expected goals all the other stuff that you love

to hear about they haven't been a good defensive team for months not since 10 have gone out but since like December 1st so that is sort of the greater concern like can they refocus retighten things up like they did the first 20 that's what I'll be looking for the last the last 20 games of the season because if not they're gonna be in tough especially if they don't win the division well so Mike they are 26 then expect a goal since January 1st which leads me to asking about family cup odds so dom one of the guys who writes for the athletic did this

breakdown of all the cup contenders in their chances and he had the lease at eight percent to win the cup does that sound right too high too low and i'll tell you how we were is that fifteen percent if that helps what when when with the vertical written today today today given where the standing are today arm it seemed i don't call percent sunday well i mean the way i look at the league this year is that there are three came here in the in the atlantic

there are probably two teams in the Metro, there are three teams in the Central, and there are probably two teams in the Pacific. What's that up to? That's up to 10 teams. 10 teams that could win the Cup this year, I think. That sounds about right. And so to have some proportional,

and I don't know, there's some that are a bit better, some that are a bit worse, and maybe the Leafs are a bit worse. So know eight is probably you can say it should be six you can say it should be nine whatever that's around the ballpark because they're one of the teams now I wouldn't say one of the first four teams but they're one of the ten teams that would have a chance. I think if they don't win their division, that number goes to three. If they win that division and get to avoid the Florida matchup, that number goes to 13. That's a pretty big swing.

Five points each way based on how they do in the division. Yeah, I think that's very reasonable. I don't know. I mean, it's so difficult to predict at this point based on injuries based on how people are playing You know and again, I think a lot of the conversation on the lease right now is projecting whether or not certain guys are gonna snap out of Some of the issues that they're having and I would look at Austin Matthews at the forefront of that Like what is one player worth the percentage two percentage?

You know like what is he worth if he's playing like he did last year when he's rocking? Because I don't know if that's baked in I guess you'd have to wouldn't you? Like if you're getting Austin Matthews who's blending into games Yeah, that's a problem. Well, hey, that's a big problem. The model as I understand it includes past seasons So it's not really taking into account what he totally is this year if I'm understanding it correctly. Well, then I'm not sure what this practice is worth at all. Like, what does that even mean? I think it's weighted more to this year while also factoring in previous years. I think how it works. But the point remains, the point remains, you can talk about TANF, goaltenders obviously have to be excellent this is the reality of when you are the highest

paid player in the world you got to be the one of the best players in the world yeah like that that's the responsibility that's the burden that's the opportunity whatever you want to call it, that's the reality. And Austin Matthews knows that, and he hasn't been the best player in the world this year. Now, 100% his start of his season was health-related, and I don't know where his health is at now. I don't know if he's still managing. Like, he's still exceptional, right?

40 goals, 90 points. Crazy that that's him somewhat debilitated. But in the playoffs, you playoffs, a guy who's one of the better players but can't really dominate his five on five matchup is not the singular focus of the other team and it still doesn't matter because he's that good. That's the guy that leaves me. That's how this team is built. They're not built to say, well, our... I mean Scott Lawton's here now, but like, you know, our depth guys will get it done. We just need to solve the top guys.

That's not how this works in Toronto. Their top guys win them games. We'll have to win them series. We've said it for years. And I don't know if he feels pressure or not, but, and maybe there's no pressure, Hayes, if he is in fact hurt and the organization would know, oh, his back is tweaked and he's, you know, he's dealing with it every day. But he doesn't look the same. He just doesn't look as dynamic, still

excellent, but not the best player in the world, actually. Just one of the good players in the world. And the Leafs need him to probably be a bit better than that to go as far as they want in the playoffs. And like the fact that Mitch Marner has had the season that he's had while Matthews is having, it has to be called a down year. It is. Factually, statistically, it is a down year. The fact that Mitch Marner is having this type of season with the contract looming,

we haven't talked about it a lot. Obviously, we've talked about it recently. What does that do for Marner considering everything that has gone on around him? He's just been so focused and it's gone so well for him the entire time and now he's playing some of his best hockey. You look to these top guys to get you over the hump in the playoffs and Marner would be the candidate that you're looking to now to be like, you are the guy because the guy that's supposed to be the guy he's not quite a hundred percent

yeah i mean i think you're not miss you probably feel that he's that guy not a bad enough to buy you should look at me like you look at him i think that's how much more to see himself in his game and he has that confident about now that he carry himself a little bit more belief given the year he had the, the production when Matthews is out, the four nations situation, like all of that should help make him feel great. And just as an aside, I'm sure you guys have dealt with it, a lot is. Like is anyone mad at Mitch Marner for not allowing himself to get traded?

Is that a problem with people do you think? I get it people might judge him if he leaves but like I He invoked a right that was his That he earned if you're mad at anyone be mad at the person who gave him a no-move clause Don't be mad at the guy who says I don't want to move my wife's pregnant I like playing here. I want to go to the playoffs here So I just thought like the sort of consternation and the fact that Mitch like it's not a distraction not to him The contracts been out there the whole year for Mitch Marner has it been a distraction Frankie just alluded to it not at all he's been incredibly

consistent in blocking it all out so this isn't gonna bother him it might have bothered him right in the moment it might have bothered him when he was asked about after game in Colorado but it's not gonna linger because he knows whatever we want to do in his head he just keeps playing well as he has all year wherever his head's been at all year keeping in the same place it's been incredible but I was just thinking I'm you know I'm hearing different people sort of ranting and railing how can you not trade them they're gonna hate them do people hate Matt Sundin hey do you hate Matt Sundin for not allowing for not allowing

himself to be traded out of charge you hate Darcy Tucker or Brian brian mccabe or any of those moscow co-five guys who didn't allow themselves to get traded out of toronto i'd add that he's on the reasonable that you would dislike players invoking a right to be a bird especially a guy who's having the best year of his career and the best part of the team this year well Well, the context is different as you know. I mean, those guys were being pushed out because they weren't winning. They were going to the playoffs and people wanted to turn over the page and get assets

and rebuild and all that kind of stuff. This is a different scenario. Where people are, I think, sensitive to this is that they can't put their finger on whether or not Marner wants to be here long term And that's that's the difference Matt's wanted to be here So you could hate on and all you want be like man Matt's just doesn't ever want to leave and Darcy doesn't want to leave and Brian McCabe doesn't want to leave I think where this is getting it could get ugly is

If it turns out Marner walks and then at the end he goes I knew the whole time I was leaving. I had committed to getting through the season and then I wanted to play somewhere else. That's when it's going to get ugly. But right now to your point, they negotiated with him. He wants to be here right now. He's playing great. The team's in a very good spot.

You mentioned his wife. They're expecting I believe in the next few months like that's life-changing personal stuff yeah he's not uprooting his life to go to Carolina you know for sick that's not reasonable it's not gonna happen no kidding but also Hayes if he goes somewhere similar to like ranting and did go to Carolina and all the sudden you got one point in your first seven games like what does that do there's just a little bit of a thought in the back of people's minds like it might not work in this situation it worked really well in Toronto like it's not much but it

could cost a little bit at least and that's somewhat significant for Marner in the grand scheme in terms of his leverage you're saying in contract negotiations. I think whatever like there's zero chance any one of us for any reason would wait to get traded to go somewhere and then not have extension waiting for a so do you know what carolina he got out of in your section of the day get their final production point you get the number you want in the spot you want to not about proving himself anymore and if you want to vote for the company got going somewhere the rental

you know your rental going to be a rental in toronto if you want to leave so bad and he said before the season if the lease wanted him so bad on a contract they should have signed on july second they could have done a lot of summer i understand why they didn't i'm not saying they should have but you can't be like we don't want to find a lot of summer when i want to find a good you're playing really well now what you've sort of lost that window

Mitch Marner said I don't want to talk about it during the season Which I sort of applaud because I could never have done that if I was a player I'm like I want to talk about it anytime you're gonna give me a hundred million dollars That's what I want to talk about it. Whenever that's on the table. Give me a call Yeah, and we my phone will be on but he's just holding true to what he is that all year long focus on this year i'm not going to the contract till it's over and here to try to win the may police

that feels like a response for anyone especially back it up with the game on the ice i guess the idea like whipping boy and so people so quick to turn on and i get it made it even though i never want to stay people can react that way but right now today I don't think people should be that upset they should probably be happy a guy wants to stay here and win here. I think part of the problem though Mike is the messaging has not been clear as that like

it has not they have not come out and said exactly that like I'm not negotiating in the season what I'm kind of surprised by in all of this and Hayes and I talked about it yesterday I think it was is why the Leafs are so desperate to sign him? Like why? Because we had kind of assumed like maybe you want to see what the playoffs are. Are you surprised that they are so eager to get this done or not? He's just a great player they just have to keep him. I mean I think more the latter than the former but I think we were all sort of the mind that it's okay if they wait because if he want to stay here then he'll work then you'll stay here annual will stay here because they have to cut and if he doesn't date

then i you know i get the idea of randall dot there you can extend him that's a pretty unique situation but uh... if he goes don't think it forces the leaves hand to change anyways if they lose early in the first round and it doesn't go well and Mitch Marner decides to walk, that in some ways forces the hand

of what the Leafs probably should do anyways, which is change the group that hasn't really got it done. Now, if they do well and he does well, they can still change the group because John Tavarez and his 11 million bucks are also off the books he may come back but they have to massive pieces there that have flexibility in a riding cap environment to go do some other things uh... if you decide to leave so i am a little surprise because

if you're the leaves the numbers not to change which marter whatever they want thirteen million dollars let's just say for for argument's sake if he has three point to the seven game first round loss or nine point to the seven game first round loss

i would almost guarantee that number is not going to change like you're not going to get a discount to be played poorly any probably will equal i doubt he asked for a premium if he does well at the numbers the number he thinks he deserves and that probably won't change the least know that the only fear i guess now is that it got closer he's done so well who maybe we want to back and we don't get to get them back and they got the certainly they want but i don't mind them having an

opportunity words of their own making or it's marners making that the lead somewhere if it doesn't go well then they get to change the team anyways and that's maybe something they should probably think about regardless. That always should have been the case. That's what's staggering about this. But now, okay, so if Mitch Marner leaves in the off season, you didn't have a chance to trade him and he earned that right, you have to look at it like you're signing UFAs, which

is great to go out and say you got all this money to go out and sign. Who are you signing that's doing what Mitch Marner does in the regular season? Like are you going to bring in Brock Besser and... But Frankie, you could bring in multiple pieces. So maybe you have two $6 million players instead of one. Sure. It's always good in theory until you can't get Ehlers and you can't get Besser and you can't get Bennett and you're looking at it saying well What do we do now like Mitch Marner like that? He was way better than all these guys, but you know you're trying to fill the pieces that way At least if you traded him, which maybe this is probably why they tried to do that

You're getting an equivalent or something close to it back like there's's no guarantees that you're going to sign that impact in the offseason uh... a hundred percent hundred-percent but if you can make the argument like give me a year and then it and i don't know the top defense and out there is for twenty three million dollars instead of marter and tomorrow's you like and

but have a conversation i don't know what that looks like but i thought that conversation but uh... you know they're a long way the way from that but and what that that is a reality for a key building your team to create a big never a good idea that all finishing touch not a foundational piece but also think you get you guys are looking at it you're looking at it from a a forward lens standpoint as opposed to looking at it backwards.

And what I mean by that is the idea that Matthews, Marner, Nylander are into year nine and they've won one playoff round. Name me another team on earth that would allow three players to go through nine years if they lose again in the first round and The reaction from everyone is well, you got to keep them for the rest of time Like you couldn't possibly change that I can't just to say it out loud is staggering It is staggering and it's not about individual play It's not about individual, you know the Mitch Marner's, you know

Analysis and what he does and what he brings or austin or or willie i'm talking the collection and the team building philosophy that is in here nine nine years is in eat hornet t in pro sports her nitty and the idea that this team wants to get out in front of it and lock them up for life all three of them

without any playoff success or any certainty it'll ever change is Insane it quite frankly is absolutely crazy When when you just lay it out on the table like that, so you guys are saying well How do you replace it what if this guy doesn't come? I don't care about that. I'm talking about the facts. These guys have been together for nine years. Maybe it changes this spring and if it does, we'll have that conversation. And hopefully it does. But if they go out in the first round, I'm sorry. I just, I can't keep having this chat every single year. I don't know how anybody could. I don't know how Shanahan could, Tree Living could year I don't know how anybody could I don't know how Shanahan could

tree-living could I don't know how MLC could Johnny I don't know how could you name me another team on earth that would say we're just gonna keep doing this for eternity even though it doesn't work in the playoffs The Washington Capitals put Backstrom, Ovechkin and John Carlson together for a decade Yeah but they at least once a round. I said second round, I said second round, you're jumping down my throat, I'm aware, I'm aware. Jones is off the top rope, eh? I knew Mike would know.

He came from the top, he couldn't get in there fast enough. Oh my god. It's just Mike, I've heard that from the team. They're like, well, Washington and St. Louis. It's like, well, those teams won rounds. They weren't out of the first round every year, to your point. Yeah. I hear you. In Washington, listen, and that clearly is, that's the hope that it just, everything clicks

when you work. That's what you're clinging to. That's what you're clinging to, right? The timing of tree living coming in the no movement clause kicking in like he wasn't going to do that as his first order of what's been here could have but is that a reasonable expectation for him yeah he won yeah you know you're missing the you're missing the point shenan yes I say one it's a 10-year question out of one year exactly the moment the

time it more well hang on it's been so long there's been thirty moments in time when they could have done something different elected not to and maybe that the bigger regretted it doesn't work out absolutely and i don't believe for a second

the g m at any point but it's true living dubious limorello makes that call so guy above them that makes it. The guy at the top makes the big calls. And I don't know. I don't think Shanahan would be willing to stomach that at that point. Two years ago. We'll see what happens comes, you know, come the spring and leading up to July 1st.

But, um, well, it's go time now, Johnny, what do we got 18? Yeah. 19 left there. You know, there are two points back at Florida. What do we got, 18 games left, 19 left? They're two points back at Florida. They got the Panthers on Thursday. They got Florida three more times. Tampa again, they got Colorado rolling through town again. It's going to be a fascinating two, three, four months coming up.

And we'll see where it takes us. You're hoping for a month and not two. Yeah, exactly. I hope it is. You know where I stand. I'm pulling for them. I hope it happens, but does it really matter Yeah, exactly. I hope it is. You know where I stand. I'm pulling for them. I hope it happens, but does it really matter what I want or what I think or what any of us want or think?

They've got to pull their weight. All right, Johnny, we'll do it later in the week. All right, fellas, have a good day. Mike Johnson, our TSN hockey analyst, joining us here on the Maple Toyota Hotline. Drive the built-in Canada fuel-efficient, fun-to-drive Toyota RAV4. Gas or hybrid models available visit mapletoyota.com.

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