OverDrive - Johnson on Marner's contract outlook, the Maple Leafs' deals and the salary cap increase

Episode Date: January 31, 2025

TSN Hockey Analyst Mike Johnson joined OverDrive to discuss the headlines around the NHL, the Maple Leafs' matchup against the Oilers, Mitch Marner's contract with the salary cap increasing and his value in the league, the deals for the stars on the team and more.

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Let's go. New year, new you. New you. New you. Explore it all. Feel brand new. At iHeartRadio.ca and on the free iHeartRadio app. Joining us from the Maple Toyota Hotline is our TSN Hockey Analyst Mike Johnson. Johnny, where are you at with the Leafs right now and how important this four game roadie

is for them over the next week, week and a half? It feels like it's pretty significant for a couple of reasons. I mean, one, you mentioned you have a two week break, so you don't want to be sitting there chewing on whatever, nine losses in 13 games or something heading into a break. That's not going to feel very good. And what probably should feel like a generally positive first two thirds of the season, they'd been in first place in the division for most of it.

Um, you know, the third top guys have done well, the new system has done well, but if you go in sort of this cold and slumping, you don't feel great about it. And then there's the practical aspect of it. Like, Ottawa's four points behind Toronto. Four points. And so this idea that Toronto was sort of home and cool, they're the top two spot, it was just a battle for first with Florida and everything else is not even part of the conversation. They've played themselves into a situation where that's not true right now and so they got to play themselves back into a situation where it is good challenge against good teams. I'm going to be out there next week for a couple games and yeah I mean I think it's pretty impressed it's pretty important they're're gonna have Tavares back.

They're gonna have Nyes back. They'll be, whatever, relatively close to full self. Stoller's on his way. Even Yarnbroke's gonna play pretty soon, I think. And then I guess there'll be no more excuses to not create offense, to not win these games. Because if they can't start winning, then there's sort of bigger, tougher questions

that gotta be asked. So 5 p.m. Mountain Time tomorrow night is puck drop in Edmonton It's one of my favorite annual traditions rolling through through Alberta and BC and Here's Connor McDavid speaking on that earlier today. What's coming with the Leaf game tomorrow night? Guys are excited You know we get the five o'clock start time it's always nice they come in our building and we got to change our schedule around but

you know it is what it is so I guarantee the first 18 years of his life he loved that right he had no problem he was up in New Market watching 7pm local. I just wouldn't want to piss that guy off. True, but hey, of all days, the response would have been, do you like the salary cap of $115 million two years? Exactly. Then you play whatever the least watchers play. Exactly. Okay, you want $17 million? That's right.

Don't tell me. You can play at 2 in the afternoon local if you want, 10am out in Toronto, and you can take a $12 million max contract. So pick your poison. You want the revenues? Do you want the in Toronto and you can take a $12 million max contract. So pick your poison. Do you want the revenues? Do you want the growth? Do you want the exposure? Or do you want the inconvenience of two hours? Your call. Yeah. You tell me what you want.

I think he knows and I think we all know the answer. I know. No, no, I'm not picking on him. It's tongue in cheek. I get it. I'm not taking it seriously. But there's no doubt, especially in Vancouver, the fans in Vancouver get quite bent out of shape about the fact that they have to change to accommodate the Toronto TV market, not so much the Leaf, it's really accommodating the television market, but I do find it comical when those sort of complaints are lodged around Canada really. Sometimes Winnipeg is not happy that they're not on CB, they can go hockey night Canada they might be on a different channel. I'm like you know the teams that are on the big channel are five times bigger than you. They're

population it's just a numbers game it's not a personal preference. I always spend that a little bit a little bit silly to get bent out of shape about those things. Well what do you remember about the amount of Leaf fans that show up for this game because we had we had a little bit of a disagreement in the last hour noodles thinks the oil is not only go ahead you know i will you explain out of the seven teams in canada the least representative will will be an Edmonton calgary there's more leaf and as far as people in the building yeah not that's it that the least represented

will be an adman said that's the way i i i've viewed it you know being in the building seeing it i played in calgary i've been in ottawa games all of that i i didn't say that they won't be there i just know that i'm busy to least represented will be an ad is that mitten is that how you recall it

and jr one so i didn't play in winnipeg after've sort of been in Winnipeg but Noodles is 100% correct. Okay. Absolutely it's amazing. I never really thought about it when I was playing for the Leafs you know there's lots of fans everywhere but seemingly now that I think back it feels like there was way more in Calgary way than Edmonton. I don't know why I have no idea how these why do you think that in this way but so they lost in vancouver montreal auto walk

yeah no noodles you are correct it doesn't seem like it's like a mother rickson might be like thirty percent we've had and admitted it might be i said twenty but i a m and you know hazen testuk wanted to come through the camera at me and I was like no I'm joking I'm saying I just said they travel Lee France travel well I've experienced it I played for the flames

I you know I'm in other ranks and that I see it that in Edmonton they travel they get there but it's just not as big quite that's that's okay it's a percent I'll grant you that was a great more leaf fans in Arizona then there would be an Edmonton there would be more leaf fans in Florida then there would be an evidence to be more of a fat in Buffalo obviously but even some of those far destinations playing for leaf there's more than we stand down there then I guess can get their hands on tickets at Edmonton. So Johnny we got these new cap projection numbers today and obviously

the captain over here is now the GM of the Maple Leafs and he's drawn a hard line Johnny. He's saying there is no freaking way that Mitch Marner is making a dime more than Austin Matthews 13.25 million dollar cap hit I pointed out the math to him that with this 95.5 million dollar projected cap that even a modest raise of Marner's percentage of the cap that he signed for in his previous contract would immediately put him very close to and probably above 13.25 into the 13 and a half million even if he gets 14% of the cap.

This the last time he signed he get 13.4% of the cap. Matthews is getting 15% of the cap. That's a lot of math to say the agents will be making the case that he should make more than Matthews because the cap has rise. How do you see it? I'm with the agents a hundred percent. Like I get it. I get why Colorado says I don't want Ranton and make it more than McKinnon in actual dollars.

And I get why Ranton would say, I'm not making more. I'm making lesser by percentage of the cap. Don't worry about the actual dollars. It's percentage of cap that matters. I got to get both sides of the argument. And depending on what side you want on, if you're a player, you want the percentage, if you're a team, you want the actual dollars. They both make sense.

There is something, the fact that Austin's contract is so new, and the fact of the matter is Austin's better than Mitch Marner. You know, Mitch has had an incredible year. He's an incredible player, but Austin's better than him. That would be an easier line to toe on a contract that's only a year old or a year and a half old. But if I'm Mitch Marner, I'm like,

hey, this is how it'll go. Like this is the advantage of being up when the cap's going up this way. I remember Lewald Dane getting $180 million contract off of an eight point season with the Lakers. Like this is how it goes when you time it right. So this is the way it works. But one of my other thoughts about this though, guys,

like the player who is going to maximize their earnings more than any other player in the history of this cap world is Austin Matthews. Because he's gotta be up when the cap's $120 million. And then he can sign his long-term deal and he can get whatever. Like it's amazing how he has signed it really well. But my first thought about those things,

like of course, Hayes, your thought goes to Marner and to Ressine and what's that mean for Tabar and all this extra money in the system. A few different thoughts. One, the players will all be asking for more, as they should. There also will be way more competition amongst good teams for players. It used to be just the teams are at the bottom of the league had the cap space, right? And do you want to go play for San Jose? Do you want to play for Chicago?

They're no good. You dump in an extra $10 million per year, per team, all of sudden good teams are going to have lots of space to sign players. That's going to be very different. But the other part is how can the league be this confident about where revenues are going to go? And that is why the cap will go up. It tells me immediately first thought there's going be expansion in the next couple years. Like, like, is it such

a moneymaker? Like the new, new franchise, they're always, sorry, cap positive players. I think that's not gonna happen and then you know the new television deal in Canada is also something that's gonna be there and the new CBA. I think they've all kind of all kind of got a believe got a pretty good eye on all those ideas and how they're going to work out And where the caps going to go absolutely and and listen I I have no issue with any player Asking her or negotiating for whatever they want. That's not it's not an anti player stance It's that my point is if you're the team you're manager, you're responsible for team building and applying a philosophy. And my thought goes to the Leafs will probably end up just capitulating and saying whatever it's gonna take.

That's been their history. That's what they've always done. Willie, what do you want? Okay, Mitch, what do you want? Austin, what do you want? I wouldn't be surprised at all. I'm bracing for them just doing that and whatever Marner is demanding is what they'll probably end up giving him. I wouldn't be surprised at all. I'm bracing for them just doing that. And whatever Marner is demanding

is what they'll probably end up giving him. I wouldn't be surprised at all. But if I'm running things, at some point, you have to have a backbone and you have to have a team philosophy. And I would argue the last time they gave Marner those percentages, it was a massive overpayment, massive overpayment.

And it's time to rectify that. And furthermore, forget your own internal cap. If you're saying this guy is going to get a percentage that's going to put him at, let's say 14 million, you know who's making 14 million start next year? Leon Drysettles. Yeah. You know how embarrassing that would be for the Maple Leafs to have to describe, like to explain that they're giving the exact same deal that Drysettles just got for Mitch?

There's no explaining that. I'm sorry, there just, there isn't. You cannot run your operation giving out money like that. You can't. There's no explanation for it. You know who would be more embarrassing? Four, Leon. I mean, I'm saying that respectfully, like, you know,

that you're a much better player about to start a contract with a guy making the same as you, then you didn't do a great job getting as much as you need or want or care to get I don't know I mean Chess's point is well made I mean if Marner when his contract started at 13.4 you give him that now that's like 13 million dollars yeah you're gonna have to give him more than presented to the captain Nylander got you're gonna have to why do you have to do that and he's better than William Nylander how much better is he than

Willie is he like is he really that much better than higher on the TSN midseason player rankings he wasn't on the projection the top 50 Willie was ahead of him three months ago Willie's gonna score 45 goals I mean how much better is he than William Nylander I I don't think he's better Okay in your case. So better numbers is the playoffs does he? Well, he has better points per game. Is he a better playoff player than William Nylander? Well, how do you judge William Nylander's player performance points and goals and win and impact on the team? Yes So well, how does Willie impact the team points Points and goals, not with great defensive plays, not with killing penalties.

So, so if it's points, Marner's got more points than William D. Leiter in the playoffs, obviously way more in the regular season. Goals, Willie obviously has way more in the playoffs in the regular season. The goals are actually much closer than you might anticipate. So I'm conceding it's close, but Marner with the... he's better. Whatever. It's even closer than the regular season. But if you're trying to make a super strong argument that Marner doesn't deserve a little bit more than William Nylander. And that puts him very close to Matthews with the new cap.

And keep in mind, Johnny, we're all talking this is speculation. Mitch Marner controls his future. Like he decides that he wants to play this out, you're going to use that cap space to go and try and replace Mitch Marner. And Miko Rannton might be available. Sam Bennett's going to be, you know, there's guys that, you know, you're going to, you might be able to pick your poison and reshape your team. All of this is, I think you kick the can down the road but

Everyone's pointed to Miko ranton and gets traded and Colorado gets a return and they get some stuff like it's different with Mitch Marner But you might be able to use that currency To you know to reshape your team if you don't like the way that it ended this season We're talking about you know if they don't have to point out like if right regard and it's not just a Mitch thing clearly right Mitch will be the one that's up if if they crap out again and it's nine years with one playoff win someone you would think they're gonna say okay well we've got to change something again I'm not holding my breath because I've been saying that for three or four years they They may not. They may not based on the way that they've operated for years, but if it goes

awry again and they're just going to continue to do it and do it and do it, I mean, I just, it becomes more and more difficult to explain. Now, maybe it goes the opposite way and they win, they go on a great run, win a bunch of rounds, maybe win a cup, and then it could be a completely different situation, obviously. But if I'm the Leafs, I'm not doing anything until I see how the playoffs play out. Yeah, yeah, listen, they're all fair points and you know there's some risk involved in that because you could have a great run and I think the risk in taking it longer though, Hayes, I do think, I don't imagine the price is gonna go up significantly higher,

unless they go win a cup or something. Like Mitch Marner's gonna ask what he thinks he deserves. He makes a pretty good case that he deserves it, and whether they win one round or two, that's probably not gonna go up or down. But it does offer you more information than if you wanted to go a different direction. But it would be, you could take $12 million

and it's not going to be easy to replace Mitch Piner in any capacity, we know that. Like there's not that many good players out there that would be available. But this is gonna be fascinating. The whole dynamic of players and contracts, it's just gonna shift now because squeezing every cent and trying to make trades and salaries, all of it is

going to be a little bit easier to navigate with the cap going up. And that's just three years. I'm assuming years four, five and six, it's going to continue to go up by eight or $10 million a year or whatever. So like you're talking $125, $30 million in five years. The most valuable thing in the league right now is if you're sort of like a quasi star player who's just starting a long-term contract if you're Nick Suzuki making seven and a half yeah great years from now that's

gonna be an absolute bargain any team who's got a player like that all of a sudden he becomes more valuable as the term becomes more valuable than less as the cap starts to go up this much. That's all I could think about Johnny is the deal like Ottawa hasn't done anything. They haven't made it to playoffs but they've got a lot of those guys. Jake Sanderson's going to make eight million in the next seven years. that's a pretty value contract if they, you know, get through to the playoffs, if they, you know, turn the corner as an organization. Guys on long-term deals, I keep thinking like, Zach Ibane makes $5.5 million, R&H 5.1, like those, you know, these deals that were signed, and I know commitments and all of that type

of stuff, and who knows, as age there's going gonna be drop-off but guys making five million that that could be a fourth liner if you've got if you don't go crazy at the top of your roster yeah a lot of flexibility man a lot of flexibility when your third liners making four and a half or five like you know it'll be like not an afterthought but it won't be like the the contract that is jammed up the whole club. It's, it's just going to be so different. And it's, it's exciting. It's a good, good for business. And one other thought from the Toronto market for the last 20 years, the big markets have not, I mean, yes, they can spend more on player development and scouting and facilities and travel. But they haven't been able to spend much more on players and I think as it gets to 110, 115, 120

like you're gonna start getting to a point where some teams will be hard pressed or will not want to go to the very cap, you know, unless they absolutely have to try to contend and that might be a chance for Toronto or the Rangers or the Flyers or the Red Wings or the Blackhawks or the Habs or whoever the big market teams to have a little bit more financial ease to get all the way to the cap if they want to. That's going to be one other sort of change over the last 20 years where it hasn't been the case. Yeah, I mean again it's bygones are byg guns it's done now But you just a part of me also looks back on the way they negotiated the first deals with Matthews and Marner and Nylander

If they all had eight-year deals you'd have them for another three years at their original price Like Willie be making six point nine for the next for this year and next if they held strong on eight years if they got Austin for 80 be making eleven point six for this in the next two But how there been no coven they would have been also really set because the cap already would be at a hundred going on eight years, if they got Austin for 80, be making 11.6 for this in the next two. But had there been no COVID, they would have been also really sad because the cap already would be at 100. More than likely that would have been the case.

Right, so they were particularly hit because they had got all their guys through relative long-term contracts and then they casted it still. And they lost that sort of uptick in the cap advantage. So yes, bygones be bygones, I know, but you're not wrong, but they also were some things

that were completely out of their control, like COVID that hurt them more than maybe other teams. So to clarify, would you be comfortable with Mitch Marner making more than Auston Matthews? No. If you're the GM, thank you. No. Okay, so what are we doing?

What are you guys talking about? Yelling and screaming about it for 15 minutes about it. If you're the GM. No. Thank you. Okay. So what are we doing? What are you guys talking about? Yelling and screaming at that for 15 minutes about it. Exactly. Like you guys are arguing with me like I'm a dummy and then you agree with me in the end.

Okay, continue. But he's going to be close and he'll be closer than you wish he was. No, I'm fine. Listen, I want to clarify this. Mitch Marner is a superstar, phenomenal player. I think they're all they all equally should be taking the heat for what has happened in the past come playoff time if anything the pecking order should be Austin at the

top then Mitch then Willie I see Mitch and Willie in a very similar spot in terms of impact on the game we can all look at it differently I have fluctuated on that over the years but I think Willie deserves a lot of credit especially when you look at what he's doing right now. This guy's playing with like Pontus Holmberg and Jacob Quillen. Yeah, it's like it in Marner's up, you know, and again March Marner's having a phenomenal year But he gets Austin some nice gets hurt. Okay, move McMahon up. Willie's doing it by himself, but that's neither here nor there But the I totally agree. Of course course he's gonna ask for what he deserves He's gonna try to get whatever he can

But if I'm the Leafs you have to you for team building or for a team that hasn't won anything At some point you've got to step up and say we have to have standards here And that's the end unfortunately Mitch's if he wants more than that if I'm Bradtree living in Brendan Shannon. I'm saying that we just can't accept that. It's not personal, it's business. And Johnny, I mean, it's not just Hayes ranting and raving here. We've got, in this past week, we just saw a Stanley Cup winning front office make exactly the same argument in trading Miko Ranen.

Yeah. Yeah, that's right. This is not news. No, the Leafs are sort of uniquely, and what makes the Leafs interesting is that it seems like they've had this sort of conversation every summer they have it, as opposed to these other teams that pops up every three or four years. But what makes it hard, and Hayes, you're not wrong, but just imagine it's you. Okay, you're, Hayes, you're Mitch. Yep. And I'm management.

And I'm like, listen, Mitch, you're incredible, but we gotta draw the line. So we're gonna give you 13 flat, and I know you, you know, percentage-wise, you'd make a case for 13.5, but like we just have to draw the line. What are you gonna say? Why would you have to start drawing the line with me?

Any player would be like, I'm not going to be the guinea pig. I'm not going to be the first guy who takes one for the team when nobody else has. You know what I mean? That's a tough pitch to make to a player when you've seen them maybe not do that for other guys. All of a sudden you're going to start doing it with me. That hardly seems enticing. And listen, I get it.

And if I'm Marner, I guess there's two things I might say. I would probably continue with the conversation if I'm playing the role of the Leafs, I'd say, no one went above Matthews the last time either. Like his 11.6, that was the height. So technically they applied the same philosophy to Mitch six years ago and said, do not get more than him. But what they did was they offered him less years.

And I could see that being the case here i the lease have proven they want these guys to be happy they love these guys they love them as maple leaves i think they envision this dream scenario which i would love to see play out don't don't get me wrong i'd love to see the dream fulfilled here where they all stick together and they all win and they all retire as leaves that'd be amazing That'd be an incredible story. I could see a scenario though where it is presented to Marner and this is up to him to figure out if he wants to do it. We're gonna draw the line on the money but you do you want the four-year deal like Austin? You can have a four-year

deal and come back up again in four years. I don't think I don't know if that's great business for the Leaf least but i could see them doing that how is that about the other if you're mitch marner and it's a if they offer you a four-year deal of thirteen million you tell me that's that's disrespectful unfair but some unbelievable offer i mean you know i would say that you can't put you do that to me and i think that that's right we've got showing incredible respect to the to the blood

uh... by the you right, but also think of a four-year deal puts him in a weird spot age-wise. Like what would he be? That's his problem. But that's it, Noodles. I'd say, if you want to eat at 13, then we can do that too. You tell me. You want four years, you want eight years. Anything between four and eight, like Austin or like Willie, you tell us.

What do you want, man? And if you really want to be a Leaf, and again, I or like Willie you tell us what do you want man? And if you really want to be a leaf and again, I feel like it's deja vu We've been talking about this for years But at some point you got to say you got to prove you really want to be a leaf Are you in it's up to you? You want to do with the other guys? So Martin says why the why I why do I have to be the guy to prove? I want to be a leaf when you've given all these other guys exactly what they want

Well again, I would give you the money you want and we're going to let you pick the term. That's how much we like you, Mitch. You can do whatever you want. You can walk yourself to free agency in two years or you can be a Leaf for Light in eight. You let us know that's how much we love you. You can dictate how long you stay. That's the upside. And if you want to bet on yourself and bet on the cap and bet on future opportunities, then take a three-year deal. If you want to be a lease for life and lock in another $120 million, time at it. We'd love to have you. Right.

That's a pretty compelling case. And listen, Dave, that very well could be his view, and he's entitled to that, and he wouldn't be necessarily wrong. And maybe he wants to test out something else, maybe someone's given him 15 million out there. Maybe that happens. Wow. But in this cap environment, you have to think somebody would.

They very well could. And then that would be up to Mitch to determine if he wants to do that. Right. I mean, at some point you gotta draw a line. That's all I'm saying. I keep thinking about Chicago. Yeah.

Chicago's got to want to get better and they don't have that many contracts coming out of the book, but they'll be, I could, you know, going after a rant and like we totally or a Marner like Chicago with that kind of move for them. I can see them being a team that would be able to jump out there and really pull it out of the water. Yeah, they got to surround that kid with some, you know and and he's got to take another step too You know he's he's still like he's still fine. That's way. That's the question

Let's say it's rant to take Mitch out of it, so it's not emotional and local. Let's say it's ranted and right you can either play Team X which is a great team team you love blah blah blah winning team and you're gonna make 13 or you can go to team Y which is Chicago the worst team in the league and make 14 I Don't know some guys might take I I don't I'm sure guys look at it differently some guys would say I'm not taking that Extra million to go through that. I don't want to do that. I want to be here. Here's a crazy I'll say I'll take it. It's a million dollars. Yeah, you're right. I don't know if you feel this way MJ Here's a crazy one. You're right. I don't know if you feel this way MJ, but here's a crazy one

San Jose I think is is is moving in the right right direction Like I I like their framework. They've gone and gotten a goalie young goalie You know, they've got celebrini who I think is gonna be a superstar I think celebrate I look at San Jose a couple years from now I think celebrate I look at San Jose a couple years from now Maybe that's where they go we can get in on a rant and we can get in and on and have you know Maybe the first year or two is leaner But you know when when we're good because they're gonna be good in a couple years It's not gonna be four years from now. They're gonna be good in a couple years and maybe I'm wrong Johnny

I've seen them live a few times. I don't know how you feel, but like I, I, that's where you take a flyer and go, okay, here's 14 for your rent or Mitch, you know, here's play with celebrating, get them to the next level because we are on the right path. We've got a goalie, we got young D, we got, you know, we've got, and we've got cap space and we've got all that. That's the only way I could see the overpay would pay off is you see the future of that where that organization is heading. They don't have maybe the, they don't have a celebrini and maybe the goalie, but Anaheim, great place to live. They're going to have like 45 or 50 million dollars in cap space next summer. 50. I mean, you can go live in Orange County and they have some decent pieces

there to start to kind of start working around. It just becomes fascinating stuff that you didn't have to kind of previously consider. And we're talking about just next summer, not to mention the 10 million from the summer after that, and the 9 million in the summer, like it's every year, it's gonna happen this way. It's, it's, it's awesome. If you're if you're Kyle Connor, I'm in in Winnipeg and you make $7 million and you're sitting there on 30 goals right now and you're like, Oh, hello, Susie. Like he,

he's going to get, is he, does he deserve more than William Nylander? Probably. Yeah. I mean, he's in that, he's in that boat. He's in that conversation, right? Absolutely. 12 million with the new percentages. Yeah. it's a big jump for a guy like him Hey, the whole thing is is really fascinating big opportunity for GM's right to mold your team and to weaponize capspace And and a lot of guys have been complaining for a long time that they don't have it. There's nothing they can do Well now you have it. Let's see what you got Yeah, it's gonna be an interesting few years coming up right johnny

will leave it there but you have a great weekend will do it again next week by a once again your yourself as anti player always management i'm not i'm a soon i'm a soon i'm a lower ball guy athlete just five billionaires eight millionaires just just typical always man always thank you johnny i've heard