OverDrive - Johnson on Matthews' performance decline, the problem with his play and Woll's return

Episode Date: December 16, 2025

TSN Hockey Analyst Mike Johnson joined OverDrive to discuss Samuel Montembeault's move to the AHL, the Maple Leafs' goaltending depth and Joseph Woll's return, Auston Matthews' performance falling, what has hindered his play, the statistics of the season and more.

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I just want to start off this segment by welcoming Mike Johnson, and I want to read a transaction that is very difficult to read. The Canadians have assigned goaltender Samuel Montembault to the LaValle Rockette. You're kidding me. I'm dead serious. On waivers? He can't, he's got to go on waivers. No, it's conditioning.

Dugie, if you jammy up. Conditioning? If you jammy up. Oh, I know it's real, but how, he can't just go to the miners, can't he? Mountain Bow is not 22 years old. I am just reading, the Canadians have a sign. Goaltender Samuel Montemblah to the Laval Rocket. I let Johnny come in, but that looks like, it sounds like I don't read French that well,

but it's a conditioning stand. Yeah, conditioning is a sign. Based on what, though? He was just playing, wasn't it? He said, go to the minors and play there for two weeks, get a couple games underneath your belt and come back. That's tough. Me, that's what it talks about, right, Johnny?

Go ahead, Johnny. Wow. Hey guys, yeah, I think that has to be conditioning. I don't think he has played what it was. Dobish played two. Fowler played two. Now, Dobish played again the other night. So it's been four or five games since he plays.

So I suppose they could spin it as though he needs conditioning, not because he's been hurt, but because he hasn't played in a little while. And I think also, guys, the player has to agree to a conditioning sin unless if they're not hurt. I don't think he's going to send a guy without his consent. So he must know. But to think, like, we're two weeks away from a guy that we thought might make the Olympic team.

And now he's getting sent to the minors for a conditioning stick. That is a Swiss fall from Grace for Sam Montpel. That's tough few. It's such a good year the last couple of years to be at a point where you're now number three. They're getting you off the depth chart. Yes, you can go for conditioning stiff. But that at some point, it probably does mean waivers and maybe a full-time trip to the American. American League, that's a tough

fill of swallow. He would get plucked. You think so? Yes. You think Edmonton tries to trade for him? He doesn't make any money, right? Three and a quarter? Yeah, he's very low. Yeah, he's low, but keep in mind like 27, I think you're 28, but he's a

good goaltender not playing well. Like you're, you don't have that many options. Like it's a different player you can healthy scratch, you can do all that, like there's two spots. Right. And Fowler, he made a great, first impression. Yeah, in the second. I didn't love his game against the Rangers. There was

a little bit of, I thought there was some nerves and he looked a little excitable in the net, but I think Montembo's a good goaltender, not playing well. You're allowed, like, guys are allowed to not play well. It happens all through. Well, let me throw this hypothetical out. Right. Because now we'll get crazy.

Stollars goes on long-term, I.R. Would the least claim Montembo? Would you claim them if you're a true living? Johnny, first of all, let me ask, I don't think Montabo would ever go on waivers. That's a really crazy-ass stuff there. Well, I mean, okay, if he's not going on waivers, what are you going to do with

the guy? You can't just stay in the minus forever. They can, they're going to give Fowler a run here. I don't know why I'm talking for Johnny, but I think they'll give Fowler a run here and he can go back without waive. But what if he plays great? Like, there's seasons on the line of Montreal. Go ahead, John. Yeah, go ahead, Johnny. Yeah, and I think

those are all part of it, right? If Fowler plays great, it's one way. So, let's say Fowler plays okay, stumbles. I'm with noodles. A Fowler probably goes back down. Lantzbo is back there and they kind of rotate those two boys as they originally intended. But if it goes well and Fowler plays exceptional and forces Montreal's hand in a good way

that you've got to put them in the NHL, they don't want three goaltenders. Then I think they will try to trade Sam Montsenboe. And if they can't trade them, then they'll put them on waivers. I'm with AIDS. Like I think so long as Fowler plays well enough to warrant a full-time spot in the NHL, maybe he does, maybe he doesn't.

But if he does, then, yeah, like I don't think they're going three goalies until April. Like, that's not how this is going to work. So, and if I'm the least, I don't know. I let Hill to be play as a backup with wool. I don't go Montevil at this point. You need another, another goaltender there. I think you've got the three.

Hopefully, at least two of them will be healthy all the time, and that'll be enough. How many games does Joseph Wall play moving forward, Johnny? We were just talking about that and his durability. How would you handle that situation? 60-40? three for wall two for hill to be maybe 66 to 33 two to one but like really be mindful of running three four five six seven in a row like make sure that when there's a game day off another game

wall doesn't play the second one even though he's had a day off before don't make him do that give him days off mentally emotionally physically so that he gets his rest like i think 6040 probably to start just to err on the side of caution and the fact that probably both goalies play better with rest. Neither one of them is used to doing what they've been asked to do at times this year for the leaf. So maybe just let them mix in there comfortably and you'll probably get the best out of both of them. Johnny, going around the table, are both of you, or is everybody comfortable with Hilda B playing games? Based on the way he's played so far. I mean, the Edmonton game was a bit of a rude awakening.

But that's what Nuddles talked about. Noodles said he could go into the net and give you seven or eight, and then after that he turned into a pumpkin. And it's like on Saturday night, He'll be turned into a pumpkin. The whole team did. He also didn't get the bounces. So I noticed in previous starts, Hildeby would get favorable bounces. When you're playing well, that happens.

It hits a post, goes underneath you instead of hits a post and goes in. The other night, the clock struck midnight. It's a pod, Coles and gold, both knees off. rolls in, like that type of stuff. He didn't get some of the favorable bounces that night. But I do believe, and I think the Leafs want to figure out what they have in Hildeby, is this guy at everyday NHL goaltender that can be a tandem guy. And I think Johnny, he's on that pathway, but there's, you know, the jury's still out because he's only played a handful of games, we'll call it. Sure, but I guess I just say, what's the alternative? Right.

Right. If it's not Hildaby, like, is Sam Montable going to be a guaranteed upgrade on Dennis Hilderby? No, not right now. He's not. Like, you look around the league, there is a dirt of the goaltenders that are available. It's not enough. So, I think Hildobie has shown enough that he warrants a further look. And, okay, let's say he can play 30 games a year on average and 50 for wool. 30 games is like, you know, five a month, one a week just over. Like, you can play like that and you don't have to run him in the

ground and yes there'll be games where he looks better than others but i think big picture and i think if i'm not mistaken you guys can check it he's on a one-way deal next year yeah so like he's part of the future so they're going to pay him he's going to be here i mean i think if you believe in him you might as well use him because there's not a lot of other really good options easy options available agreed johnny what do you think of the idea of loading up nielander matthews and nyes tonight better be good they better be good like it's it's so strange guys we never sort of talk about these guys this way like even you know i understand like the losses and you guys hello dark as my old friend the

whole bit and it gets hard there in the playoffs and it's it's not nice but generally speaking their existence for 10 years has been deservedly positive i haven't had a lot of moments in the regular season the last decade where you felt the heat has really ratcheted up and they got to respond and there's questions sort of being asked about, you know, how good they might be? Are they up to the challenge? They've generally been up to the challenge. Who feels like tonight? Johnny?

I mean, I would usually say Austin maybe leads Willie right now, the way he moves the puck around, but the way Willie's been playing, whether it's injury or illness or something else, they both need each other. because both are have been a far cry from what they can be and what they have to be for the last what two weeks so it feels like it's a it's a pretty important game as super cool and aloof as willy can be and as detached and and calm as awesome can be they must know the energy right now is like these guys got to this guys got to show more he's got to do more and so you know playing Chicago, no badard.

Chicago was having a decent year in the standings, but they're not a very good team yet. They have to go play and and like be really good. Be really good. And I just, it's unusual because I'm not used to having sort of that feeling before a game like well, if they don't play well,

it's going to get more uncomfortable than maybe they've ever sort of experienced the regular season. It's just a strange spot for them to be in. Yeah, it's very unique. It's something that really no other superstar has experienced what they've experienced. Like, in terms of just, you're never in a bad place in December at any point in your career. You talked about it.

The last nine years, it's been pretty... They go to the playoffs every single year. They've never missed. Regular season, right? So there hasn't been... Like, Bred, obviously, not playing tonight. The last two years, been miserable for him. You know, there were years it was miserable for McDavid,

miserable for Sid when he first got into the league. Ovechkin and the caps were horrendous for a couple of years. These guys have been nothing but successful. successful every single year. And, you know, there was a time when I would look at this line in particular and say, man, that is going to be dangerous. Like we asked the question earlier, Johnny, is Jeff Blaschell, the head coach of the Blackhawks? Like, is he terrified of this line?

Is he scared? Because two or three years ago, you would be terrified. He'd be like, Matthews is going to destroy us tonight. When he's coming off a bad game, he's getting called out, but Dard's not playing. We're not much of a team. I don't, I'm not sure he is. Like, I'm not sure Jeff Blaschell's like, this guy's going to destroy us tonight. And that's a sign of something that's also changed.

It's completely, you know, it's an intangible, but it's just got a different feeling than anything we've experienced for 10 years. Yeah. But, I mean, you know, they go on the history. They look at the tape. I mean, you're reading, like, listen, I'm not here to pile on Austin Matthews. You know, I believe he's working as hard as he can. Like, he cares. He wants to be good.

It's not happening for him. But whatever. I think he's outside the top 100 in school. scoring, right? He's on pace for like 60 points, which is good for a second line player in NHL. He's not supposed to be that. So, yeah, I mean, obviously would get their attention. They would focus primarily on that line regardless of what's going on. But you just look at the way these guys have played the last two weeks. You look at the results. You look at all of it. And you're like, okay, we're not holding on for dear life, I guess these guys. We're thinking,

okay, Frankie Nazar, go play hard against them. Jason Dickinson, go shut them down. You should be able to, it's going to be hard, and they might get some chances and some shots, but we're not going to be overwhelmed. And it won't be specifically the only reason we don't win this game is because we had no answers for the supernova, unstoppable force of a line that is Nize Matthews

Neelander. I don't think guys are thinking that way. But I would love to be wrong. I'd love the Blackhawks after the game, be like, well, guess what? We had nothing for those guys. We had no answer. But does anyone believe that's going to be the case? I would be surprised if it was. Johnny, what do you think the issue

is with Matthews, do you think he's battling an injury? Because we were talking about just his overall kind of look or feel and it's not where it needs to be. So if you could pinpoint one thing, what is it? Okay, oh, I dug into some numbers, not

fancy ones, just regular numbers. Okay, so not system-related, because we could talk about controlling play and shots and expected goals, and that can be related to system. Let's just go to the hard, raw numbers. And I looked at two years ago when he scored 69 and this year okay he right now is about 5% slower than he was two years ago he's flat out he his top speed is 5% slower okay how much stake do you put into 5% that's NHL edge right well on a hundred on a hundred foot race

if I'm five foot further behind I put a lot of stake into it think about it right five feet to go from blue line to the net it's almost 100 feet now you're two feet further behind three feet from the behind. That's a lot. But maybe more importantly, okay, the 20 to 22 mile an hour burst is sort of like how often, if you're not just a blazingly flasked skater like McDavid, you can play fast and get to that number in the context of a game. Okay, so two years ago, he was in the 80th percentile. So top 20 percent of the league and how often he got to that pace, how often he played fast in a game. This year, they don't even give him a number. He's just below 50 because they don't want to embarrass the players when they're below 50.

That, to me, is the single most telling number. He doesn't play fast anymore. Part of it, maybe he can't skate quite as fast. But mostly, he doesn't apply that speed in a context of the game. I looked, he's done it 19 times this year, gotten over 20 miles an hour.

Connor McDavid, as a comparison, the fastest guy. He's done a 210 times this year. You're older. That's the kind of that's the kind of... So, I, whether it's, whether that's just age for Austin, or whether that's health or that's just like the new reality

of back hip, groin, wrist, whatever is bothering him. He just can't play as fast. He's not as explosive. And on one other number, his hardest shot went from 94 to 86. So like just the physical skills required to play at an explosive level

have been diminished a little bit. I don't know why. I have no idea if it's just a guy who's 29 years old or if it's a guy who's 29 years old or if it's a history of whatever bothering him in his in his body. But that's it to me, guys. I looked at those numbers like, that's telling me something. He has slowed way down in how often he plays fast,

how fast he can't play top speed, how hard he shoots the puck. That is just, that tells me physically something has changed. He doesn't want to go fast. Right. Like he doesn't want to shoot it hard. He just can't. Well, Johnny, I hate to tell you, but that's the only valuable stat pack you brought to the table on this program.

and it's a great one that is it's a great one because there's this conversation going on within the fan base of you know what what would be worse

that he's he's injured and he just can't do it or if he's disinterested and won't do it like which one is more damning it's not disinterest though like no way not a dot you're not going to skate so let's just say let's say you're having a disinterested moment okay

whether that even exists. Okay, there's a puck that's open for a breakaway, 30 feet away. Two years ago, he's going 22 and a half miles an hour. This year he's going 21 miles an hour. Is that because he doesn't care to go as fast as he can? Of course he's going to go as fast as he can in that moment. Like it's human nature of every player who plays on the ice to go as fast as they can in that moment. He can't do it, Hayes. It's not disinterest. It's something stopping him from going, which is not mental. It's got to be physical. Well, in my opinion, to answer that question, the existential question that the fans are asking, that is much more concerning. Because if it was just moping around, it's like, all right, snap out of it.

You know, like there have been times earlier in the year where we've talked about it looked like McDavid was just like not in a mood tonight. I'm interested. You could tell. But you knew it's like when he gets interested, get out of the way. Right. If it is a physically can't do it anymore, then I don't know how you possibly turn this show. around as a team as a player with your cap structure he's your captain i mean everything the whole identity of the team revolves around this guy being a rock star and being a superstar

expectation of everything exactly and you know we said it earlier johnny that you know we can talk about all the details of the game and they all matter they all collectively are important he's got to be a goal score end of discussion that guy the reason he is who he is is because he rips home goals out of pace that no one else can't. Game breaker, game changer. Exactly. And if you can't get to the puck or can't get it off the way he wants to, and that's just not possible anymore, what are we talking about here? What is he? Is he Nico Heeshire? Is he, is he, is he Sebastian Ajo? Is he good players, but not great players and not superstar game changers.

Let me ask you this, Johnny. We always use the word sample size. Have you seen enough to definitively go, and I looked at that NHL edge numbers in that as well. is this a trend or is this something that you think is you know hey the last couple months type of thing like is this something you think you can dig out of or you you think this is just the new norm for austin matthews um i mean i i would say noodles if he gets health if his body changes then of course he could get out of it right i would only say this though how long did they have off last summer they were done on april may what was it may may may something yeah four months off

whatever. He had four and a half months off. Like if you can't fix your body, and not blaming him, of course he wants to. I'm not like he was screwing around playing golf all summer. He was trying to get as healthy as he can get. Right. But if you can't get your body right in four months and healthy in four months, I don't think it's going to get healthy in the middle of the hockey season. Right.

While you're playing every other night in a compressed schedule at 22 minutes a night. So I think sample sizes is what it is. We're 32 games in. We're coming up on halfway through the year. almost Christmas for this year the numbers are the numbers if you can skate faster you would I don't see that changing

unless health changes and I can't imagine four months of no games couldn't get you healthy or back to where you once were I don't know how a game every other day is going to allow him to get healthy either. Do you have to pay for that information? No it's right here so it's free.

That's why you had to jump in there. He and I were battling over who's up next. He's like No, no, no, I got to get in. I got to get in. You could have texted him that in a break. I don't care. All right.

Anyway, moving on. Important info. Actually, it is something I wanted to hear. Yeah. Because I'll dive into that if it's free. If it's free. I'm not paying for it, but it's free. It's literally right there.

Perfect. But you know, guys, you just go in, type in Austin Matthews, click on shot speed, skating speed. You can click on this year. Yes. You click on last year. You can click on the year before. Perfect.

You can look what's, what's going on. and the trend, if you're going to chart it like a grade 10 math class, like, oh, did when he read all his books, the trend would be going the wrong way. It's not good. I'll tell you where the rubber is going to meet the road is at the Olympics. Because in Toronto, he's playing, and he's got to play. When you're representing your country at the Olympic Games,

if you can't do it, you're not playing. And that is going to be fascinating because Craig Barubei's got to play him 20 minutes. You have to. What else are you going to do? Play Nick Waugh? You're not. He's playing. Well, what's also going to be fascinating is if at the Olympics, you see these bursts pop out of somebody's arse, and it's like, where did that come from?

And that would bring into the question, okay, is it mindset? Is it where his head's at? I mean, you're right. That's another point. If he's flying, you're like, where the hell was that during the NHL? I'll be getting on my computer going into the burst section. You absolutely will be and should be, but Jack Eichol will be playing more than him. And quite frankly, right now he deserves to be.

Ikel deserves to play more than him. You know, I mean, that's going to be crazy as watching him if he's getting 15 minutes a night at the Olympics. Because he's not bringing enough. Well, let's hope that's not the case. Bo Noodles, right? He was good.

Like, I know he didn't score the goal. Yeah. That final game, he was good in the Four Nations. Like, he should have won it three times. He was great. And over time. Like, he was good. So the other part about it is, like, you know,

he will be, he will be one of the slower players. If Canada plays the U.S. in the gold medal game, Austin will be one of the slower players on the ice but I don't know if that means he can't be good it might be hard to be dominant but doesn't mean he can't be good especially if he has Jack Hughes and Matt Boldie on his wings or whatever right guys who can fly around so

but yeah the whole thing is going to be fascinating and it's it's hard like everyone in their career noodles knows it oh knows it Hazie maybe it happened to you when you're 19 I don't know but like everybody knows at some point your body does start to change like it gets a bit harder you're not quite as strong you're not quite as explosive whether you're 36 33 30 we've seen guys happen

in 28 20 like I don't know I don't know but it would be frustrating because you know guys would want to be as good as they can be it's why we do it and if you just can't summon the ability to move the way you want and to move the way you once did so effortlessly so gracefully so frequently and now it just doesn't happen it would be infuriating He's so frustrating for the team, for us, for the fans, for whatever. But mostly for him, he wants to be way better. He knows it. And he's tasted what it feels like to be way better.

And it's just hasn't been there. And so that would be tough. It would be tough. Well, and you're going to have to adapt, right? Like, if that's the reality, you're going to have to adapt. Like, it's about playing like John Tavaris. Yeah, but Hayes. Crazy.

Right. But so, like, but is he already not doing that? Like, he does battle defensively. He's like one of the top shot blocking forwards in the league. We won't like it because you're like, well, hang on. You're getting 13 and a half. You've got to score and drive play. Well, if he's pivoting, say, like, he's going to score 40-ish and get 75 points

and be really good defensively and great on face-offs, that's maybe the best he can do, given his body, and maybe that's him pivoting already. But that pivot doesn't take the leaves where they need to go. No. That's the problem. Exactly. When it coincides with a jauntip.

Navarous, I'm 35 pivot too. You're like, okay, he's got a transition to your second line center now, if that's who you are. We talked about Pavel Datsuk earlier, Johnny, and it was like he was great defensively and he was responsible and trusted and did all this and that, but he was Pavel Datsu for what he did in the ozone, man.

Like, he wasn't the magic man because of back check. Yeah. Well, what about Patrice Bergeron? He was a combo. We'll talk about that. He was also that his whole career. Yeah. But Bergeron. Like, you know, if he turned in what Bergeron is, what Bergeron was his whole career.

80 point guy, 35 goal guy. I'm just not prepared to talk about what this guy's going to turn into. It's a tough conversation. It really is. I don't want it to go there. Well, let's just worry about tonight's game. It's heartening. It is.

Yeah. I looked at those numbers, though, and I just was like, the numbers felt eye opening to me, guys. We're like, man, those don't lie. They just, he just can't, he just doesn't move quite as fast he once did. It's tough. It's amazing when you see. GMs and people talking in the media going, if you look at the

numbers, these are some of the numbers behind the scenes. The analytics guys dig deeper into it, but they don't lie. Yep. All right, Johnny. Good stuff, buddy. Appreciate it as always. They don't lie. Enjoy the game tonight. We'll do it later in a week. Oh, have fun tonight. NHL Edge all night long.

There you go. Dude, it's going to replace a way different website, pal. New homepage. Who is? Thanks, Johnny. There's Mike Johnson joining us on the Maple Toyota hotline. Get in and go where adventures take you in a new 2025 Tacoma from Maple Toyota near Canada's Wonderland and the Maple Auto Mall. Visit Maple Toyota.com.

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